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D-Backs CEO Derrick Hall On Deadline Plans

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Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall discussed his organization’s upcoming trade-deadline plans — or, really, the lack thereof — in an interesting recent chat with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link). The whole thing is essential reading for the Arizona faithful, but we’ll examine a few key bits relating to the trade deadline.

Hall made clear, first and foremost, that the organization is entering the deadline period without a scripted approach. At the moment, it’s not clear what stance the Snakes will take. “[A] lot could be cleared up over the next few weeks,” he says, as the standings shift in the run-up to July 31st.

Just when and how that’ll be resolved remains to be seen. Intriguingly, Hall even seems to hint that he might rather see the current roster declare itself in one direction or the other more decisively. Per Hall: “We haven’t played great of late, and other teams have struggled as well, which has kept us in it, which is not necessarily a good thing for us.”

It’s not surprising to hear that the Arizona outfit will operate in a flexible manner. As Hall explains, that has been the modus operandi of GM Mike Hazen and his front office. “[O]ur guys, what they like to do is a little bit of both,” Hall said when asked what a sell-oriented deadline might look like, referring to the org’s twin pursuits of acquiring “pieces that can make an impact now” and “rebuilding that farm system.”

If there’s a broader takeaway from the chat, it probably lies in this line from Hall: “I don’t think Mike is in favor of a complete rebuild, and we’re in support of whatever direction he decides.” The organization clearly has placed quite a lot of trust in Hazen’s judgment. And it is obviously interested in maintaining consistent competitiveness while perhaps also achieving inflection points of real contention.

The D-Backs’ long-term vision carries echoes of successful, low-revenue clubs. After referring to the Paul Goldschmidt swap as “a deal that we really had to make,” Hall explained:

“That’s what [the front office is] always going to look to do, bring in young talent that can help the roster now. Even though you may be making moves that are moving some of your assets that we don’t have control over for a long time, you can still bring in individuals you will have that control over but who can impact the roster now.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things play out this summer and beyond. Players such as Robbie Ray and David Peralta could deliver nice returns with one year of control remaining; veteran ace Zack Greinke might finally be dealt away to clear up the team’s books. It seems fair to assume that Hazen will have an open mind on those and other assets, but it’s tough to say at present which particular players will end up being discussed in earnest over the next three weeks.

Report: Yankees “Historically Have Liked” Robbie Ray

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At 46-45, Arizona is among a slew of clubs with realistic playoff hopes in the wide-open National League. Just 1 1/2 games back of wild-card position, the Diamondbacks don’t look like surefire sellers with the July 31 trade deadline three-plus weeks ago. Should that change, though, the Diamondbacks could have an attractive trade chip in starter Robbie Ray. The Yankees are among teams that “historically have liked” the left-hander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported (subscription required).

Now 27 years old, Ray was already a piece in a trade featuring the Yankees earlier in his career. As part of a three-team deal in December 2014, the Diamondbacks acquired Ray from the Tigers, the Yankees got shortstop Didi Gregorius from the D-backs and the Tigers picked up righty Shane Greene from New York. Ray has since turned into one of the majors’ greatest strikeout artists among starters, having posted the league’s third-highest K/9 (11.14) dating back to his first season in Arizona. Shaky control (4.09 BB/9) has helped prevent Ray from limiting runs at an ace-level rate, though the 3.86 ERA and 3.85 FIP he has put up in 692 1/3 innings as a Diamondback are still respectable.

The 2019 version of Ray has offered production in line with his career totals. Over 104 2/3 frames, the slider-heavy Ray owns a 3.96 ERA/4.05 FIP with 11.78 K/9 (fifth in the game) and a 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate (12th). On the negative side, Ray’s velocity has dipped compared to last year, and though his walk rate has fallen from 5.09 per nine to 4.64 since then, it remains unpalatable. Ray has also yielded home runs on upward of 15 percent of fly balls for the fourth consecutive year, in part because his groundball rate checks in just under 40 percent for the second straight season. Moreover, as Rosenthal notes, Ray has never been known as a workhorse who lasts deep into games. He has only amassed 30 or more starts once, in 2016, and has averaged well under six frames per outing in his career.

Ray does have his flaws, but no team would expect to land an ace in acquiring him. The club would instead be under the impression it’s trading for one-plus year of a solid, affordable starter. Ray is making a reasonable $6.05MM this year and in his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility – facts that only add to his appeal for the D-backs and other teams.

World Series-contending New York has been on the lookout for starters for weeks and could use an ace in light of Luis Severino’s ongoing injury problems. However, the team might struggle to find a true No. 1 starter from elsewhere this summer. The Indians may part with Trevor Bauer, who has landed on the Yankees’ radar, though he hasn’t consistently resembled his ace-caliber 2018 self. Along with Ray and Bauer, the Yankees have shown reported interest in the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (link), the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner and the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman (links here). For the most part, that group pales in comparison to a healthy Severino. Nevertheless, each of those starters would seemingly help a Yankees rotation that – despite the team’s AL-best 57-31 record – hasn’t received front-line production from anyone.

Looking beyond this season, the Yankees will lose the retiring CC Sabathia, which could make Ray or anyone else under control past 2019 an even more logical fit. Severino will at least be back next year (barring something catastrophic), though, and Jordan Montgomery could return from June 2018 Tommy John surgery by then. James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Domingo German and the struggling J.A. Happ comprise the rest of the Yankees’ experienced starters who are currently slated to stick around in 2020.

Cubs Among Teams Interested In David Peralta

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If the Diamondbacks decide to move some of their veteran talent at the deadline, the Cubs are one of multiple teams who would have interest in outfielder David Peralta, Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest video link for FOX Sports.

Peralta went on the injured list on Friday due to right shoulder inflammation, though Arizona expects he’ll be back in action in relatively short order (and, most importantly, before the July 31st trade deadline).  Peralta’s health is still something of a red flag, however, as this is the second time this season that a bothersome right AC joint has sent him to the injured list.  That first IL stint sidelined the outfielder for only 10 days, but any type of recurring injury has to be concerning to any interested trade partners, particularly since Peralta batted only .252/.342/.388 over 117 plate appearances in between his two trips to the injured list.

Those 117 PA make up a significant chunk of Peralta’s season, and could explain why his overall .289/.352/.476 slash line and 112 OPS+ and wRC+ over 324 PA are all down from his production in 2018 (.293/.352/.516 with 30 homers, 128 OPS+, 130 wRC+).  Peralta may also be somewhat fortunate to be hitting as well as he has this season, as his .350 wOBA far outpaces a very modest .301 xwOBA.

It could be that a healthy Peralta, fully recovered from his shoulder woes, can regain his 2018 form once he returns from the IL.  He’d have to prove this over a relatively small amount of time before the trade deadline, as otherwise suitors would either lose interest or only present the D’Backs with lowball offers.  That could mean Arizona holds off on dealing Peralta altogether, as the Snakes don’t have a ton of urgency to move a player who has one year remaining of arbitration eligibility at an affordable price — Peralta is earning $7MM this season, and thus is likely on pace to get a raise to something in the $9MM range for 2020.

This assumes, of course, that the Diamondbacks are sellers at all, as the team heads into the All-Star break 1.5 games out of the final NL wild card position.  Arizona isn’t far behind Chicago’s own 47-43 record, though the Cubs are hanging onto first place in the crowded NL Central, whereas the D’Backs are way behind the Dodgers in the NL West, so the wild card is the Snakes’ only realistic road to the postseason.

Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has tried to walk the fine line between keeping his team competitive while also keeping payroll in check, as the D’Backs are somewhat bogged down by the large salaries owed to Zack Greinke (who at least delivers ace-level performance) and the albatross that is Yasmany Tomas’ contract.  To this end, Arizona parted ways with Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock as free agents last offseason and also dealt Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals, though despite missing these star names, the D’Backs have indeed still remained in the wild card hunt.

Barring a big string of losses after the break, it doesn’t seem like Hazen would turn firmly towards deadline selling since Peralta still has quite a bit of value to the 2020 club.  On the other hand, that same extra year of control could also entice teams to offer enough young talent for Arizona to consider moving Peralta.

The Cubs represent an interesting suitor for Peralta, particularly since Chicago already has a left-handed hitting left fielder in Kyle Schwarber.  Peralta has played almost exclusively in left field over the last two seasons, though he has a lot of experience in right field, so the Cubbies could deploy him in right while Jason Heyward (another lefty swinger) became more or less a full-time center fielder.

While everyday center fielders are harder to find than corner outfielders (especially at the trade deadline), one would think the more easier solution to the Cubs’ issues would be to simply find an actual center fielder, rather than add Peralta into the mix.  Heyward has graded as a good center fielder, though since he is arguably the game’s best defensive right fielder, moving him to center and Peralta to right doesn’t do much to help the Cubs’ overall defense.

If Peralta was acquired, maybe the more intriguing counter-move would be for Chicago to then flip Schwarber — perhaps the Diamondbacks would have interest.  This is just speculation on my part, though on the face of it, adding Peralta alongside Heyward and Schwarber for an all-left handed starting outfield doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Cubs.  Then again, the right-handed hitter Kris Bryant would still continue to see his share of at-bats in the corner outfield positions when he isn’t playing third base.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/7/19

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Here are the latest moves from around the minors…

  • Cody Decker is retiring from pro baseball, as officially confirmed by the Triple-A Reno Aces.  The 32-year-old Decker ended his career on a remarkable high note, hitting a walkoff homer on Friday to end his final game.  A UCLA product who was selected in the 22nd round of the 2009 draft by the Padres, Decker logged 3843 plate appearances over 1033 games in the minor leagues.  After spending his first seven years in San Diego’s farm system, Decker bounced around to five other organizations within the last four seasons, including two years in Reno, the Diamondbacks’ top affiliate.  Though Decker’s only MLB experience consisted of eight games for the Padres in 2015 (that saw him go hitless in 11 at-bats), his lengthy minor league career and colorful personality made him something of a folk hero to teammates and fans.  Decker hit .260/.341/.517 in the minors, and his 204 homers were the most of any active minor leaguer.  We at MLBTR wish Decker the best in his post-playing career!
  • The Rays have signed right-hander Jason Garcia to a minor league deal.  The move was announced by the Twitter feed of the independent American Association, as Garcia had been pitching for the Sioux City team since being let go by the Rockies’ Double-A affiliate last season.  Originally a 17th-round pick for the Red Sox in 2010, Garcia has a 4.94 ERA, 1.58 K/BB rate, and a 7.2 K/9 over 526 career innings in the minors, though he had posted some strong numbers for Sioux City (including a 2.73 ERA over 56 frames this season).  Garcia’s only taste of the big leagues was back in 2015, when he posted a 4.25 ERA over 29 2/3 relief innings for the Orioles.

Diamondbacks Place David Peralta On Injured List

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The Diamondbacks placed left fielder David Peralta on the 10-day injured list and recalled infielder Domingo Leyba from Triple-A Reno on Friday, manager Torey Lovullo announced.

Peralta is dealing with right AC joint inflammation, an issue that has dogged him for over a month. The 31-year-old went to the IL with the same injury on May 24, and even though Peralta spent the minimum time on the shelf, his shoulder hasn’t healed since then. Lovullo did express hope Friday that Peralta would once again return after a short IL stay, though.

Peralta boasted a .309/.357/.524 line in 217 plate appearances when he initially went down, but that slash has dropped to .289/.352/.476 (112 wRC+) in 107 PA since his return. While that’s still quality production overall, it falls well short of Peralta’s numbers in comparison to last year, when he recorded a 130 wRC+ with 30 home runs. He has mustered just nine HRs this season while seeing his ISO drop from .223 to .187.

Arizona, which is three games out of the NL wild-card race, has often turned to the righty-hitting Tim Locastro in left when Peralta hasn’t been available. However, with right-hander Antonio Senzatela on the mound for the Rockies on Friday, the Diamondbacks started the lefty-swinging Jarrod Dyson.

Closer Updates: Athletics, D-Backs, Royals

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Let’s check in on a few ninth-inning situations from around the game …

  • The Athletics are engineering a change in their closer situation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Just-minted All-Star Liam Hendriks is going to be relied upon to secure final-inning leads for the foreseeable future, she indicates. Blake Treinen had performed the job with aplomb last year but hasn’t been nearly so trustworthy in 2019. He has been issuing a dizzying number of walks of late and took a loss in his most recent appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint. Hendriks, meanwhile, is humming along at a 1.29 ERA clip through 48 2/3 innings, with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He has only permitted a single long ball this year, with a paltry 1.8% HR/FB rate. That’ll need to hold up, at least to some extent, if he’s to succeed with an exceptionally flyball heavy approach; his current 0.56 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest in his career.
  • While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
  • In more forward-looking news, surprise Royals closer Ian Kennedy is settling nicely into his new gig, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. “I]t’s fun to be good at something again and contribute,” says the former starter. While his big contract will run out after 2020, the 34-year-old Kennedy says he anticipates continuing his career thereafter. “You can sign one-year or two-year deals,” he explains, “because even though you’re older, teams know you can still pitch and help a team. You look around the league and you see that all the time.” We’re still a ways away from considering Kennedy as a free agent, but perhaps he will have a shot at a productive run through his mid to late-thirties. Of more immediate concern for the foundering K.C. club is whether Kennedy can be turned into a trade chip. With $16.5MM salaries this year and next, there’s little chance of moving all of the money, but Kennedy’s relief revival makes it reasonable to expect that some kind of deal can be structured to save the rebuilding organization some cash.

Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher

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The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.

Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.

Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.

While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.

Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Greg Holland’s Closer Job At Risk After 2nd Consecutive Blown Save

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Diamondbacks reliever Greg Holland’s hold on the club’s closer role appears to be tenuous after a second-straight blown save. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, skipper Torey Lovullo declined last night to confirm that the veteran hurler will keep the job moving forward.

To his credit, Lovullo wasn’t willing to make a rash decision in the immediate aftermath of another late-inning collapse. “I’m in an emotional state right now,” he said. “I want to probably think through it with a clear head.”

At the same time, the skipper acknowledge that he’s “concerned” with his veteran closer. That stands in contrast to Lovullo’s words after Holland’s hard-to-watch meltdown the night prior, when he nearly shut the door on the rival Dodgers before summoning a cavalcade around the bases with a series of free passes.

As Piecoro documents, Holland’s steady start to the year has given way to increasingly shaky performances. He has blown three of his last five save opportunities. Since a scoreless appearance against the Los Angeles club on June 5th, Holland’s earned run average has shot up from 1.31 to 3.21. Worse, he has managed just five strikeouts against seven walks in that 7 1/3-inning span.

It’s not entirely surprising that Holland has failed to sustain the early success. He’s no longer a dominating pitcher: his arm speed continues to trail off (career-low 92.2 average fastball, 84.8 mph slider) and his swinging-strike rate has fallen to levels (12.3%) not seen since his debut campaign. Free passes continue to be an issue, with Holland dishing out 5.2 per nine since the start of the 2015 season.

That said, there was (and perhaps still is) hope that Holland would be a key piece for the Snakes the rest of the way. Statcast suggests that he has been legitimately excellent at limiting hard contact, crediting him with a .253 xwOBA-against that is actually a shade better than his .256 wOBA-against.

No matter the course the team takes, Holland is an important player to the organization. Should the club elect to hang in there and continue fighting, despite a yawning divisional deficit and tough Wild Card competition, then it’ll need to take more than its fair share of tight contests. If it decides instead to cash in some chips at the deadline, Holland would be the team’s most obvious rental piece to sell. The difficulties, then, come at an awkward time for Arizona. At the moment, Holland is neither helping the team keep pace nor boosting his own trade value.

While it’d be silly to overplay the notion of the proven closer, contending teams still value late-inning experience and steadiness (and not all that infrequently will give up notable prospects in search of certainty in the 9th). Now, it’s increasingly hard to imagine the Arizona franchise successfully marketing Holland as a reliable veteran who could handle closing duties down the stretch.

Holland is guaranteed only $3.25MM on the year and needs not feature as a closer to have trade appeal. But that’s where his greatest potential value lies to the team. Odds are, he’ll be given a shot to regain his standing over the next several weeks even if he’s removed temporarily from the role.

There are also some direct financial considerations worthy of note. With thirty appearances and twenty games finished, Holland is also already in the meat of his contract’s incentive package. He has already picked up $300K in extra earnings. He can earn $100K upon reaching 35, 40, 45, and 50 appearances, with $200K apiece if he logs a 55th and 60th. And there’s $150K promised for finishing games number 25, 30, 35, and 40, with even bigger numbers thereafter ($300K at 45 and 50, $600K for 55 and 60).

Injury Notes: Lowrie, Manaea, D-backs, Scooter, Tigers

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Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Mets infielder Jed Lowrie still isn’t close to making his 2019 debut, manager Mickey Callaway told Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters Wednesday. Lower body injuries have kept Lowrie from playing this season after he joined the Mets on a two-year, $20MM contract over the winter. With the season now at the halfway point, Callaway doesn’t even seem willing to commit to Lowrie taking the field at all in 2019. Asked if he expects to see Lowrie this year, Callaway said: “That’s hard to say. There’s so much of the season left. We’ll just have to play that by ear.”

MLB Draft Signings: 7/3/19

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We’ll use this post to track the latest noteworthy draft signings.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500,  Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law …

  • The Diamondbacks have a $750K deal with southpaw Tommy Henry, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link). The 74th overall selection came with a $844K slot value, so there are some savings here for the team to work with. Henry recently capped a strong season with an excellent showing in the College World Series. Now, he’ll launch his pro career with the Arizona organization. Henry ranked just inside the top 50 among all draft prospects on the BA board, with MLB.com (#59) and Fangraphs (#64) generally concurring with that range of placement. While there were some ups and downs in Henry’s arsenal over the course of the 2019 campaign, he’s said to command a strong, three-pitch mix at his best.
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