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Latest On Astros’ Rotation

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For obvious reasons, the Astros have made plenty of negative headlines in recent weeks. The start of the regular season continues to close in, though, so despite all the outside noise, the Astros will have to turn the page and focus on defending their American League pennant from a year ago.

When they do take the field the season, the Astros’ rotation figures to look quite a bit different than the all-world unit they relied on in 2019. Gone from that group are AL Cy Young runner-up Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, a duo that combined for almost 380 innings of excellent pitching. Now, the Astros still have a great front-of-the-rotation tandem in Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, and they’re slated to get Lance McCullers Jr. back after he missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond, Verlander, Greinke and McCullers, the rest of the Astros’ rotation picture is less clear. However, pitching coach Brent Strom shed some light on it in a discussion with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Strom suggested that Jose Urquidy is in line for the No. 4 spot. He also revealed that the Astros don’t expect to count on righty Brad Peacock as a starter. The veteran swingman made 15 starts in 23 appearances last year, but the neck issues that slowed him in 2019 have continued. Houston now expects him to factor into its bullpen instead of its rotation.

Regarding Peacock and the Astros’ starting staff, Strom told McTaggart, “I think you can probably count [Brad] Peacock out of the race.” Strom added that Peacock’s “probably more valuable to us in the bullpen,” leaving (in his view) Austin Pruitt, Josh James and Framber Valdez to compete for the No. 5 position. Although towering righty Forrest Whitley has been one of the Astros’ top prospects for at least a couple years, he’s probably not “a viable candidate” to land a job in their season-opening rotation, according to Strom.

Among the actual competitors for the Astros’ No. 5 position, only Pruitt’s new to the team. He joined the Astros in a trade with the Rays last month. The 30-year-old’s known for his high spin rate, but it hasn’t translated to much major league success thus far. Since debuting in 2017, Pruitt has posted 199 2/3 innings of 4.87 ERA ball (with a far superior 4.17 FIP and a solid 48.9 percent groundball rate) and recorded 6.63 K/9 against 2.25 BB/9. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll have to earn a place on Houston’s 26-man roster or potentially be lost on waivers.

James, a fellow righty, and the left-handed Valdez still have options remaining. The hard-throwing James made an encouraging – albeit brief – debut in 2018, though he had difficulty with control in a relief role last season. The 26-year-old ended up tossing 61 1/3 frames and notching a 4.70 ERA/3.98 FIP with 5.14 walks per nine. On a better note, he did log a tremendous 14.67 K/9 while averaging 97.2 mph on his fastball.

Valdez, also 26, joined James in amassing lots of innings but struggling to throw strikes last season. He walked 5.6 hitters per nine, helping lead to a 5.86 ERA/4.98 FIP in 70 2/3 innings between the Astros’ rotation and bullpen. Valdez’s strikeout rate (8.66 K/9) was a lot worse than James’, but he did induce grounders at an outstanding 62.1 percent clip.

Just-hired manager Dusty Baker will clearly have to make some key decisions in forming a new-look rotation before the season commences. Verlander, Greinke and McCullers are locks, but the Astros don’t have any proven commodities after that trio.

Astros Rotation Status

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The Astros have lots on their plate after a difficult couple of weeks in the public eye, but they have on-field issues at hand as well. Now that the manager and GM are in place, the focus can soon return to the field. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke make for an enviable top of the rotation, but there’s uncertainty beyond their veteran aces, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart.

Lance McCullers Jr. will return from elbow surgery to man the third spot in the rotation, and after his strong performance in the postseason, Jose Urquidy has a good chance of claiming one of the two remaining slots. But with a new GM and manager stepping in, there’s a potential clean slate working against the otherwise favored.

A host of candidates are on hand to push Urquidy and contend for the final rotation role. Brad Peacock and Austin Pruitt are the veterans with rotation experience on hand, with either one capable of taking turns in the rotation.

Beyond the vets, there are a host of young arms capable of proving their readiness and stepping into the rotation. Josh James, Bryan Abreu, Framber Valdez, Forrest Whitley, Austin Pruitt, Cy Sneed and Francis Martes. There’s more at stake in this arms race, as there are three to four bullpen spots available for those left out of the dugout.

West Notes: Panda, D-backs, Astros, Rockies

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The latest on several notable players from the majors’ West divisions…

  • Although Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is set for Tommy John surgery, his season doesn’t look over quite yet. Manager Bruce Bochy told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group and other reporters Thursday that Sandoval could at least make some pinch-hit appearances before he goes under the knife. In the meantime, Sandoval will test out his swing to see if he’ll be able to contribute more this season. The longtime Giant, 33, is a strong bet to hit free agency in the offseason, meaning his run in San Francisco could be on the verge of concluding.
  • Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver continues progressing toward a 2019 return, Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic relays. Weaver, out since late May with a UCL strain and a flexor sprain in his pitching arm, will throw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Friday, and the club will determine where to go from there. While Weaver was eminently effective out of the Diamondbacks’ rotation earlier this season, the lack of time left in the campaign will force him to pitch from their bullpen if he does return. Meantime, the news is less encouraging for fellow righty Taijuan Walker, whose 2018 Tommy John surgery and ’19 shoulder problems have stopped him from taking a major league mound this season. Walker is throwing, but it’s “unlikely” that he’ll come back this year, Morin writes.
  • In welcome news for the Astros’ bullpen, injured reliever Ryan Pressly is doing “quite well” in his recovery from knee surgery, according to manager A.J. Hinch (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Pressly could resume light throwing over the weekend. His absence dating back to Aug. 21 has deprived the title-contending Astros of arguably their best reliever as the postseason approaches. The right-handed Pressly has logged a 2.50 ERA/2.83 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (11.62 K/9, 1.97 BB/9) over 50 1/3 innings this season. Teammate and fellow righty reliever Josh James could come off the IL this weekend, meanwhile, per McTaggart. The promising 26-year-old has fanned a prolific 14.03 batters per nine across 51 1/3 frames this season, though a bloated walk rate (5.03 per nine) has helped lead to a 4.73 ERA/4.11 FIP.
  • Rockies reliever Scott Oberg explained to Thomas Harding of MLB.com why he recently underwent surgery to address blood clots in his right arm, saying, “It just felt really heavy.” It’s the second instance of blood clots for Oberg, but fortunately, he’s not suffering from any kind of major medical condition. The soon-to-be 30-year-old expects to be ready to go for 2020, when he’ll try to build on a second straight impressive campaign. This season has been anything but impressive for Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who’s currently on the IL with a strained groin, but he’s working toward a return; however, there’s no timetable for a possible comeback, Harding relays. Freeland went from Cy Young candidate a year ago to someone who has faced a minor league demotion this season and pitched to a ghastly 6.98 ERA/6.12 FIP over 20 starts and 99 1/3 innings in the bigs.

Astros Notes: Bullpen, James, White, Draft

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The latest out of Houston…

  • It has widely been expected that the Astros will target rotation help at the deadline, though Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if the club could also look at acquiring a reliever.  There isn’t much wrong on paper with the Astros’ relief corps, as they rank first in the league in bullpen WHIP, second in hits/9, and third in bullpen ERA, though there is some uncertainty at the back end.  Josh James has been inconsistent this season, while Rome notes that Hector Rendon didn’t pitch well down the stretch in 2018.  There also isn’t much left-handed depth beyond Cionel Perez and reverse-splits specialist Will Harris.
  • Speaking of James, he left last night’s game for what he described as “a precautionary move” due to lat tightness, Rome tweets, and James didn’t consider the issue to be serious.  The 26-year-old has a stunning 14.4 K/9 this season, usually operating as a multi-inning weapon out of Houston’s pen, though James has had troubles with the long ball (1.7 HR/9) and his control (5.9 BB/9).  As a result, James only has a 4.71 ERA to show for all his missed bats.
  • The Astros are close to getting a lot of notable stars back from the injured list, which Rome feels could lead to something of a roster crunch.  Tyler White could be the odd man out, as he hasn’t hit this season and offers little defensive value apart from his current status as the Astros’ only backup first baseman.  These issues also make the out-of-options White difficult to trade, though given his strong minor league numbers and the .888 OPS he posted for the Astros over 237 PA just last season, one would think another team would make a claim if White was indeed designated for assignment.  Tony Kemp is another player whose role could be diminished once Houston’s regulars are healthy, though Kemp’s on-base ability and defensive versatility seemingly give him the leg up on White if a choice had to be made.
  • In a separate piece from Rome, he writes about the Astros’ attempts to free up enough room within their $5,355,100 draft bonus pool to sign fourth-round pick Colin Barber.  The 136th overall pick has a $410.1K slot price, though Barber reportedly wants more to break his commitment to the University of Oregon.  Barber’s asking price isn’t known, though Houston has already carved out approximately $645K in pool space thanks to a few below-slot signings, much of which ($507.3K) came from first-rounder Korey Lee’s contract.  Of course, not all of that extra money is earmarked for Barber, given that the Astros have also gone above-slot to sign a couple of their other picks.

Astros Option Corbin Martin

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5:12pm: The Astros announced that they’ve optioned Martin to Triple-A. It’s not clear who’ll step into his spot in the rotation, as the corresponding move was the recall of lefty reliever Reymin Guduan. As The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan points out (via Twitter), they’ll need a fifth starter on Saturday but can get through the next turn in the rotation with only four starters due to an off day next week.

11:05am: Though the Astros aren’t committing to a rotation change just yet, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes that one may not be far off. Corbin Martin has not made it past the fourth inning since his debut outing.

Martin’s first showing was a good one. But in his four intervening starts, he has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits with a 10:11 K/BB ratio in 14 innings.

The ’Stros are showing a fair bit of patience, but obviously won’t be satisfied with these sorts of results. Martin has struggled to get ahead of hitters, keep his pitch count down, and stay in the zone. And though the organization can afford some added audition time with a nine-game division lead, it also will be wary of tempting fate while several of its best players are on the injured list.

Skipper A.J. Hinch affirmed that the organization believes in Martin as a long-term option, citing his stuff and “mentality” as reasons for a “really good” long-term outlook. But Hinch says that for Martin “to stay in the rotation and be effective, not just for the foreseeable future but his entire career, it’s important for him to mix in some good outings and make sure he can get us deep in games.” Whether Martin will get one more chance to turn the corner remains to be seen.

The ’Stros certainly have alternatives. Collin McHugh would be an obvious choice, though he’s on the IL. Josh James, Framber Valdez, and Brady Rodgers could all slide over from the bullpen. It’d certainly be easy enough for the team to piggyback a few of those pitchers to get the length needed for a game or two, perhaps allowing one or more pitchers to stretch out fully on the fly.

Looking down on the farm, there are two 40-man starters — Cionel Perez and Rogelio Armenteros — camped out at Triple-A. Neither has been particularly impressive to this point of the season, at least in terms of earned runs, though both have swing and miss capabilities. It might have been hoped that top prospect Forrest Whitley would be ready for a taste of the big leagues, but he has been hammered early on at Round Rock and doesn’t seem likely to be tapped in the near future.

AL West Notes: Straw, James, Luzardo

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Ever-seeking new ways to expand their depth, the Astros recently approached outfield prospect Myles Straw about taking some groundballs at shortstop, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Straw was understandably surprised at first, even skeptical, but lo and behold, he has evenly split his time between center and short through ten games at Triple-A Round Rock. Straw, 24, ranks as the #16 prospect in Houston’s system per MLB.com, #17 per Fangraphs. Outfield depth in Triple-A and the Astros’ past success with utility players like Marwin Gonzalez and Yuli Gurriel may be driving the Straw experiment, but it’s a win-win for team and player, as it behooves both sides to maximize Straw’s chances of making an impact at the big league level. Even though Straw is already arguably their best defensive outfield prospect, diversifying his defensive profile will certainly increase his odds of finding a permanent role on a major league roster, should the experiment prove fruitful. More from the AL West…

  • Josh James has stumbled out the gate this season, but he’s focused on repeating his delivery and finding a consistent rhythm from which to pump his 100+ mph fastball into the zone, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The 26-year-old flame-throwing righty has surrendered seven earned runs in only eight innings of work through six appearances out of the Houston pen (7.88 ERA). Wildness has been an issue (6.8 BB/9) as has the long ball (3 HR allowed, 3.4 HR/9) – but gaudy strikeout numbers are also par for the course for James (12.4 K/9). The K-rate provides some statistical backing to James’ hopes that more consistent mechanics could fix his control issues and unlock some real potential – he clearly has the stuff to stick the landing in the pros. A strained right quad injury shortened his Spring Training, which time and again has proved complicating for pitchers trying to find their sea legs, so to speak, early in a new campaign.
  • On a similar note, A’s top prospect Jesus Luzardo will need to essentially go through an entire Spring Training period of his own if/when he starts throwing, per the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser. Luzardo was shut down on March 21st because of a sore left shoulder, and he has yet to resume throwing, though he could do so any day now. A’s manager Bob Melvin reports that Luzardo “feels absolutely fantastic” and “wants to throw,” but it’s unlikely he sees the major leagues before at least mid-season. Given his youth and potential, Oakland will no doubt track him carefully as he builds back shoulder strength for the stretch run.

Latest On Astros’ Rotation Battle

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Astros righty Josh James has been diagnosed with a strained right quad, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (links to Twitter). The injury “probably takes [James] out of the conversation” for the club’s final rotation spot, per Hinch.

Fortunately, there’s no reason to believe this injury is of long-term concern. To the contrary, James will remain a candidate to break camp on the MLB roster in a relief role. James, who is days away from his 26th birthday, showed eye-popping stuff in both capacities during a brief but exciting 2018 debut.

So, how will the club fill out its rotation? Hinch specifically ruled out some of the club’s most-hyped young arms, making clear that Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas are still not prepared to jump up to the MLB level (at least as starters).

Rome suggests that there is still a fair bit of competition. Brad Peacock is certainly the most experienced option. He’ll try to fend off younger hurlers Framber Valdez, Brady Rodgers, Cionel Perez, and Rogelio Armenteros.

Until he signs elsewhere, of course, southpaw Dallas Keuchel remains at least a hypothetical possibility. The veteran starter and the Astros’ brass have kept the door open to a return in their public comments, though it seems he’s still hoping to secure a larger commitment from another club.

Agency Changes: Grandal, Liriano, Drury, James

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Here’s the latest agency news from around the majors:

  • Free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal has hired Adam Katz of the Wasserman Media Group, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Long one of the majors’ most well-rounded catchers, the 30-year-old Grandal now stands as the premier backstop on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $64MM guarantee. The switch-hitter spent the previous four seasons as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .241/.349/.466 over 518 plate appearances in 2018, posting a 125 wRC+ and at least 20 home runs (24) for the third straight year. Additionally, Grandal was the game’s top-ranked defensive catcher last season, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • One of Grandal’s fellow free agents, left-hander Francisco Liriano, is also heading to Wasserman, Robert Murray of The Athletic relays. While Liriano was formerly a high-end starter, the 35-year-old’s effectiveness has waned over the past few seasons. He spent 2018 with the Tigers and logged a subpar 4.58 ERA/5.11 FIP with 7.41 K/9 and 4.92 BB/9 over 133 2/3 innings, and saw his velocity tumble as the season progressed.  On the positive side, Liriano induced an above-average number of of ground balls (48.3 percent) and held same-handed hitters to a woeful .171/.255/.261 line. Perhaps he’ll be on teams’ radars as a lefty relief option – a role he took on late in 2017 with Houston.
  • The Blue Jays’ Brandon Drury is yet another new Wasserman client, according to Jerry Crasnick, who adds that the infielder has tabbed Nick Chanock as his agent. The Yankees acquired Drury from the Diamondbacks in a noteworthy trade last February, and New York’s hope was he’d serve as its starting third baseman. Drury did win the job in spring training, but he landed on the shelf early in the season with blurred vision and migraines, which opened the door for rookie Miguel Andujar to emerge as the Yankees’ top third baseman. The breakout seasons Andujar and fellow rookie Gleyber Torres, a second baseman, enjoyed in 2018 helped influence the Yankees to trade Drury to the Blue Jays as part of a July deal for lefty J.A. Happ. Under two weeks after Toronto acquired him, Drury suffered a fractured left hand, ending a Murphy’s Law season for the 26-year-old. Drury ultimately slashed a horrid .169/.256/.260 and showed almost no power (one homer, .091 ISO) across 86 major league PAs. He’s projected to earn $1.4MM in 2019, his first of three potential arbitration years.
  • Astros righty Josh James has hired CAA Sports, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. After performing brilliantly in 114 1/3 minor league innings in 2018, the flamethrowing James continued to wow during a 23-frame debut with Houston late in the season. The 25-year-old notched a 2.35 ERA/3.51 FIP with 11.35 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9 in six appearances (three starts), perhaps giving him the inside track on a rotation job for 2019. James currently ranks as MLB.com’s 95th-best prospect.

These changes will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. Agents, if you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

AL West Notes: Paxton, Buttrey, Laureano, Astros’ Roster

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Mariners lefty James Paxton is slated to make his final start of the season Saturday, and he’ll be on a pitch count of about 85, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Paxton is aiming to top 160 innings in an effort to build up to the point where he’d be able to strive for a 200-inning season without any workload limitations. Paxton, 30 in November, has never approached that mark in any professional season, topping out at a combined 171 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the Majors in 2016. He’s battled everything from a lat strain, to a forearm strain, back inflammation and a severe tendon injury in his pitching hand over the course of an impressive but injury-laden career to date. Seattle has control of Paxton through the 2020 season and will certainly be hoping for a larger workload and better health next season, given the deterioration of previous ace Felix Hernandez. Thus far in 2018, Paxton has pitched a career-high 154 1/3 innings with a career-best 11.6 K/9 mark against just 2.5 BB/9. He’s been more homer-prone than in recent years (1.34 HR/9) but still owns a solid 3.85 ERA that is backed by career-best marks in fielding-independent marks like xFIP (3.08) and SIERA (3.01).

More from the division…

  • The Angels shut down right-hander Ty Buttrey for the remainder of the season this week, as the promising 25-year-old has been dealing with a bout of bursitis in his right knee, per MLB.com’s Maria Guardado (Twitter links). Buttrey’s ascension to the big leagues didn’t draw many headlines, but he’s quietly been sensational both in the upper minors and in 16 1/3 innings for the Angels since being acquired from the Red Sox in the trade that sent Ian Kinsler to Boston. Buttrey pitched to a combined 2.20 ERA with 13.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with three different minor league affiliates this season, and he’s sporting a 3.31 ERA with an outstanding 20-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 56.8 percent ground-ball rate in the Majors. He’s averaged a hearty 96 mph on his heater thus far in his young Major League career, and so long as his knee issues don’t prove to be especially serious, he should have an opportunity to earn his way into high-leverage spots with the Halos early next season; he did, after all, tally four saves with the Angels shortly after his MLB debut. Small sample caveats clearly apply, but the Angels have to be pleased with the early returns on that swap.
  • The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan takes a look at six questions facing the Astros as the gear up for the American League Division Series against the Indians, including a pair of questions they’ll face in setting their roster (subscription link). If Lance McCullers Jr. is ready to go as a piece in the bullpen, Houston brass will have to decide between a hard-throwing multi-inning option, Josh James, and Joe Smith, a seasoned veteran who could be a matchup specialist against Cleveland sluggers like Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson. The ’Stros also need to weigh whether Max Stassi should be carried as a third catcher, thus freeing up more pinch-hitting opportunities, or if Myles Straw and his blazing speed should command the final bench spot.
  • Ramon Laureano’s brilliant play with the Athletics since debuting in early August has earned him the team’s everyday center fielder role moving forward, writes Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. That spot had been earmarked for Dustin Fowler, a more high-profile prospect acquisition in last summer’s Sonny Gray blockbuster with the Yankees, but he now looks like a corner option for the foreseeable future. Oakland added Laureano in a trade that barely went noticed last November, sending minor league righty Brandon Bailey to the Astros in return. Since debuting, though, Laureano has posted a .295/.364/.486 batting line with terrific center field defense and a perfect seven steals in seven attempts. A’s EVP Billy Beane tells Slusser that the “job is [Laureano’s],” adding that the 24-year-old “has played that position just about as well as anyone we’ve ever had here.”

Astros Activate Brian McCann, Select Josh James

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The Astros have activated catcher Brian McCann and outfielder Jake Marisnick from the 10-day disabled list, selected the contract of right-hander Josh James from Triple-A Fresno, and recalled lefty Cionel Perez from Fresno, Ben DuBose of MLB.com was among those to report.

The most notable news here is the return of McCann, who went on the DL on July 3 with a right knee injury and then underwent surgery to repair the issue. McCann will start Saturday for the Astros, who mostly turned to Max Stassi and Martin Maldonado behind the plate in his stead.

Houston acquired Maldonado from the Angels a few weeks after losing McCann, and the defensive-minded backstop has since offered above-average offensive production in 64 plate appearances (.237/.270/.492 with three home runs). The 32-year-old Maldonado has never been much of a hitter, though, and an unsustainable power surge (.254 ISO) has been the reason for his respectable output as an Astro, helping to overshadow subpar strikeout and walk rates (23.4 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively).

Stassi, meanwhile, has come back to earth to a significant extent since a hot offensive start to 2018, but overall, he has batted a solid .234/.322/.407 with eight homers in 242 PAs. Notably, the 27-year-old has been a major asset behind the plate, as Baseball Prospectus has ranked him as the game’s best pitch framer this season.

McCann, 34, has garnered plenty of praise for his defense throughout his career, and has typically been among the majors’ premier offensive backstops. However, he struggled to a .206/.283/.323 line with five HRs and a career-worst .116 ISO in 173 PAs before undergoing surgery. As a left-handed hitter, he may well finish the season in a platoon with the righty-swinging Maldonado or Stassi. After that, it’s unclear what McCann’s future will hold, as he’s likely to hit free agency over the winter. McCann is controllable next year by way of a $15MM club option, but he won’t amass the necessary 1,000 PAs from 2017-18 for it to vest, and the Astros won’t exercise it.

While the McCann era may be winding down in Houston, James’ career with the team is just beginning. The Astros, clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead over the A’s for the AL West lead, will start the 25-year-old James against the Angels on Saturday. Houston’s turning to James, a 34th-round pick in 2014, because it’s without starters Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. – both of whom are on the DL.

MLB.com’s sixth-ranked Astros prospect, James earned his way the majors this year by posting a 3.40 ERA/3.39 FIP with a sky-high 12.92 K/9 (against 3.79 BB/9) across 17 starts and 92 2/3 Triple-A innings. James offers serious heat, per MLB.com, as his fastball sits between 95 mph to 97 mph and is capable of reaching triple digits. His repertoire also includes a promising slider and “an improving changeup,” according to MLB.com, though the outlet suggests he’s likely to be a reliever in the majors.

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