Justin Sterner

The Rays opened a rotation spot this morning by trading Aaron Civale to the Brewers. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on X that Shane Baz will take that rotation spot, likely taking over Civale’s scheduled start on Friday. For now, the Rays have recalled reliever Justin Sterner to give the bullpen an extra arm, as Topkin suggested they would.

The recall of Baz is a fairly logical next step, as it lines up with reporting from last week. Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the Rays could make some starting pitching available, not necessarily as deadline “sellers” but simply because of being in a position where they had a relative surplus in the rotation.

At the time of that report, the Rays had a big league rotation of Civale, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Baz and Jeffrey Springs both nearing returns from Tommy John surgeries. The reporting indicated that the Rays could trade one of their veteran starters to bolster their system and/or upgrade another area of their roster, then backfilling the rotation with Baz or Springs while also saving some money. All that is now coming to pass this week. Civale and his $4.9MM salary were traded to the Brewers, with the Rays adding infield prospect Gregory Barrios to their system.

The club is currently 43-42 and only three games out of a playoff spot, but the hope is that subtracting Civale while adding Baz will leave the club’s competitive chances in 2024 relatively unchanged or perhaps even improved.

Baz was acquired as part of the lopsided deal that sent Chris Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and a player to be named later, which eventually turned out to be Baz. The young righty was already a notable prospect at that time, as the Bucs drafted him 12th overall in 2017.

His first full season in the Rays’ system was very strong, as he made 17 Single-A starts with a 2.99 earned run average. His 10.8% walk rate was a bit high but he struck out 25.4% of batters faced. After the minor league were canceled in 2020, Baz was even more impressive in 2021. He had a 2.06 ERA over 78 2/3 innings pitched between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 37.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.4% rate. He also made his major league debut with three starts and a 2.03 ERA.

Going into 2022, Baz was considered the eighth best prospect in the entire league by Baseball America, with other outlets similarly bullish. The Rays were surely hoping for him to establish himself at the big league level that year but his health got in the way. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow in March and began the season on the injured list. He was reinstated in June and made six starts before being shut down with an elbow sprain which eventually led to Tommy John surgery in September.

He missed all of 2023 while rehabbing and began this year on the injured list as well. He was reinstated from the injured list in May but optioned to Triple-A to continue building up his workload there. He seemed to show a bit of rust early on, with a 7.71 ERA through his first five minor league starts this year. But he’s been quite dominant in his most recent five, with a 1.57 ERA in those outings.

Since Civale had a 5.07 ERA with the Rays prior to being dealt, it’s entirely possible that Baz will be able to upgrade the current rotation, based on the way he was pitching in 2021 and how he has looked in the past month or so. In total, the moves showcase how a club can walk a tightrope of both buying and selling, as the Rays saved some cash and netted a prospect that could help them down the line while simultaneously keeping their competitive hopes alive here in 2024.

For Baz, by spending more than a month in the minors before being recalled, his path to free agency is going to be pushed back. He came into this season with two years and 14 days of service time, thanks to his call-up late in 2021 and then two years largely spent on the injured list. But by the time he’s recalled to take the ball on Friday, it will have been more than six weeks since he was optioned on May 23, meaning he won’t be able to get to the three-year mark here in 2024.

He’ll be a lock for Super Two status at the end of this year and will therefore get four trips through arbitration instead of three, assuming he stays up with the big league club the rest of the way, but the earliest he can qualify for free agency at this point is after the 2028 campaign.

For the Rays, they could perhaps make another series of moves like this, with Springs nearing a return from his surgery as well. The lefty got up to three innings pitched in his most recent rehab start and could be ready for reinstatement shortly. Even if they trade Eflin or Littell, who can each be controlled through 2025, the long-term rotation picture looks good. Shane McClanahan should be back from his own Tommy John surgery next year and is under club control through 2027. Pepiot is under control through 2028 and Bradley one year beyond that. The Springs extension goes through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Drew Rasmussen, who is currently on the IL after last year’s internal brace surgery, can be controlled via arbitration through 2026. Tyler Alexander is on optional assignment and pitching decently in the minors, with the potential to be retained via arbitration beyond this year as well.