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Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

Royals Hire New Coaches To Round Out Staff

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The Royals have completed their coaching staff with a slate of new hires, per a team announcement (h/t MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan; Twitter links). Kansas City has shaken up manager Ned Yost’s staff a bit as the organization enters an offseason of no little uncertainty.

Terry Bradshaw has been hired as the new hitting coach. Last year’s hitting coach, Dale Sveum, was shifted to the bench coach role after the Royals parted ways with Don Wakamatsu. Previously, Bradshaw served as the K.C. organization’s minor-league hitting coordinator.

On the pitching side, Cal Eldred will run the staff as the pitching coach. Last year, the position was held by Dave Eiland, who was among the coaches that were not retained at season’s end. Eldred, a veteran big league hurler, had served as a special assistant in the Cardinals and Royals front offices.

Vance Wilson, a former big league catcher and recent minor-league skipper for the Royals, will serve as the new bullpen coach. Meanwhile, Pedro Grifol is set to function in a new role as quality control coach after previously serving as the catching coach. The Royals will also shift Mitch Maier to the first base coach’s box, per Flanagan.

Royals Notes: Hosmer, Rebuild, Kennedy

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  • The Royals’ pursuit of Eric Hosmer could decide their immediate future, as the team could decide to forego re-signing any of their other free agents and rebuild if Hosmer can’t be brought back into the fold.  It will take a sizeable offer to re-sign Hosmer, however, and while K.C. has been willing to spend to keep is championship window open, “their payroll is starting to press the limits.”
  • Ian Kennedy won’t exercise his opt-out clause, and will remain with the Royals for the three years and $49MM remaining on his contract.  While no official announcement has come from Kennedy or the team, the decision is an unsurprising one given the righty’s subpar season.  Kennedy said himself in September that “it would be pretty stupid” to head into free agency on the heels of an injury-hampered year that saw Kennedy post a 5.38 ERA over 154 innings.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Saturday

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The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. The Rockies dropped a QO on Michael Cuddyer in 2014, for example, while the Nationals decided against giving one to Edwin Jackson back in the QO’s first year of operation (2012), only to see him sign a four-year deal with the Cubs.

Here’s the latest chatter from around the game:

  • The Royals, unsurprisingly, will issue qualifying offers to each of their three major free agents, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain each feature prominently on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents — indeed, all are rated among the seven most valuable players on the open market — so it’s hardly surprising to learn that K.C. is going in this direction. That said, there had been at least some suggestion that the team had yet to decide on Cain, who is a fair bit older than the other two departing core members of the Royals’ memorable 2014-15 teams. He still figures to be in high demand as the best-available center field on the upcoming market. All told, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three players accepts the qualifying offer, meaning that the Royals ought to be lined up for a nice haul of draft picks once the dust settles. (Of course, it’s also still possible that one or even more than one of these players will return to Kansas City, in which case no draft compensation would be triggered for that player.)

Mike Minor To Decline Mutual Option

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Left-hander Mike Minor has declined his half of a $10MM mutual option and is now a free agent, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter). He’ll receive a buyout of $1.25MM as part of the two-year, $7.25MM contract he inked with Kansas City prior to the 2016 campaign. The Royals have interest in re-signing Minor as their closer moving forward, he adds, but he’ll first have the opportunity to gauge interest from other clubs now that he’s hitting the open market.

Mike Minor | Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Minor, 30 in December, missed the 2015 season due to shoulder surgery but landed a two-year pact in Kansas City, as they expected that he’d be ready to return to the mound as a rotation option in the first half of the 2016 campaign. However, lingering effects of that shoulder procedure kept Minor from taking the mound in the Majors at all in 2016.

Though he didn’t make good on the first year of that two-year pact, Minor nonetheless proved to be an immense bargain. Healthy in 2017, Minor shifted to the bullpen and climbed the ranks in the Royals’ relief corps, beginning with low-leverage innings but eventually serving as the team’s closer late in the year.

Minor was a genuine weapon working as a reliever. In 77 2/3 innings he averaged 10.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 with a 42.4 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.55 ERA. Minor allowed just five homers all season and was utterly dominant against left-handed opponents (.161/.228/.196) while also rendering right-handed bats largely useless (.221/.281/.383). That performance made the decision to walk away from a potential $10MM salary in 2018 (a net of $8.75MM for Minor when factoring in the buyout) an easy one, as Minor should have no problem handily topping that mark in free agency.

While some clubs will undoubtedly have some trepidation about the fact that Minor missed a pair of seasons following a shoulder operation, he showed no ill effects in 2017 and should be poised to command a strong multi-year deal. Bullpen help is in demand for all 30 teams each offseason, and left-handed relievers that can dominate both left- and right-handed hitters alike are rare commodities. That Minor exhibited an ability to work multiple innings throughout the year is a strong point in his favor as teams gravitate further away from rigid, one-inning relief roles.

Minor figures to draw interest both as a closer and as a setup option for teams that already have strict closers in place. He could also find some interest from clubs that are intrigued by plugging him back into the rotation, but he’d almost certainly be leaving money on the table right now by rolling the dice on a return a starting role. Whatever contract he signs may contain some incentives based on starts and total innings if that’s a route he’s interested in pursuing, but more than half the teams in the league will probably be interested in adding Minor to their bullpen. That’s the best route for him to maximize his earning power, which figures to be substantial. We ranked Minor 18th on yesterday’s Top 50 Free Agent list and pegged him for a four-year deal just south of Brett Cecil’s $30.5MM pact in St. Louis.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Morneau, Lenik, Bell

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Veteran first baseman Justin Morneau isn’t calling it quits yet, officially, but it sounds as if he has largely accepted that he likely won’t suit up again in the majors. In the course of a great chat on the podcast of Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (audio link), Morneau says it seemed at points last spring and even into the season that he might have a shot at joining an organization. Ultimately, though, things simply “didn’t line up” for the 36-year-old, who says he wasn’t really “willing to go down to Triple-A and ride the bus” at this stage, given his family obligations. A 14-year MLB veteran, Morneau long starred with the Twins and played most recently with the White Sox. Though he showed in 2016 that he can still hit major league pitching, he acknowledges that it “doesn’t look like there’s a lot of opportunities” out there for the coming season. (That’s a topic that’s covered further in the podcast, which is well worth a listen.)

Here are some notes from the central divisions:

  • The Royals face a variety of challenges this winter, with a need to bolster the bullpen likely among them. But the team does have an intriguing option on hand in indy ball find Kevin Lenik, writes Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. The 26-year-old is showing a big fastball and generated strong results upon reaching Triple-A, where he pitched to a 1.88 ERA with 24 strikeouts and eight walks over 24 frames in a dozen outings. Assistant GM J.J. Picollo suggests it’s likely (albeit still undecided) that Lenik will receive an invitation to MLB camp.
  • Buddy Bell has left the White Sox front office to join that of the Reds, as Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports. Bell had served as an assistant GM in Chicago and will now function as a senior advisor to top Reds baseball decisionmaker Dick Williams. A long-time big leaguer and former MLB skipper, Bell drew kind words from White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf on his way out the door. As Kuc notes, Bell has roots in Cincinnati and figures to make for a valuable addition to the organization’s front office.

Royals Deny Braves Permission To Interview Dayton Moore

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SATURDAY: The chances of Moore going to the Braves aren’t completely dead, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggests. If Hart loses his hold on the Braves’ baseball operations, it could pave the way for the team to pursue Moore in earnest, according to O’Brien. The “belief among some observers” is that the Royals would be willing to let Moore head to Atlanta if they’re adequately compensated, O’Brien reports.

FRIDAY: Royals owner David Glass denied a request from the Braves to interview GM Dayton Moore for Atlanta’s own top front office position, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports.  Moore is under contract with Kansas City through at least the 2018 season and thus permission was required for an interview.  Such permission is often granted if a promotion is being offered, though that wasn’t the case here since Moore already holds a job atop a team’s baseball operations depth chart.

The exact nature of what job the Braves were offering is of particular note, as John Hart is still Atlanta’s president of baseball operations.  Hart’s future, however, is up in the air due to the ongoing investigation about international signing improprieties within the Braves front office.  The investigation has also now extended into looking into alleged violations regarding the amateur draft — Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan detailed some of the complaints leveled against former GM John Coppolella in regards to pre-draft agreements.

Coppolella and international scouting director Gordon Blakely both resigned their positions earlier this month, and Hart’s own contract is up after the World Series is over.  It could be that Braves upper management decides to move on with an entirely new front office, regardless of what MLB’s investigation does or doesn’t report about Hart, and thus Atlanta would be able to offer Moore the full control that he has reportedly demanded if he were to change jobs.  Though Moore and other names have been connected to their front office opening, the Braves have yet to conduct any interviews with candidates, perhaps due to the uncertainty over Hart.  This is just my speculation, but it could also be the case that Moore was the Braves’ top choice, and they’ll now move onto secondary candidates since Glass has denied them a chance to speak to Moore.

Adding an experienced, championship-winning executive like Moore would go a long way towards settling the tumult within the Atlanta organization, particularly given Moore’s past ties to the Braves.  For his part, however, Moore has stated that he is happy with the Royals, and reiterated to Crasnick that “I’m focused on what we need to do here in Kansas City.”  While the Royals appear to be heading into a rebuild, Moore may also prefer the relative stability of his current position rather than join a Braves franchise that may be hit with some severe penalties, pending the results of the league’s investigation.

Dozier, Cuthbert Could Man Corners For Royals In 2018

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  • The Royals have been discussing contingency plans for the potential departure of Eric Hosmer and/or Mike Moustakas, writes MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. One possibility is for prospect Hunter Dozier to slide across the diamond from third base to first base, with Cheslor Cuthbert manning the hot corner. Dozier has seen occasional time at first base in recent seasons and could see some additional time there playing winter ball in Mexico, though assistant GM J.J. Picollo tells Flanagan that Dozier’s goal in winter ball is just to get as many at-bats as possible regardless of position. If Hosmer and Moustakas do depart, it’s also possible that Cuthbert could play first next year with Dozier playing his natural third base, says Picollo, calling it “a matter of how we line up best defensively.”

Elected Free Agency: Siegrist, Edgin, Hutchison, Locke, Bolsinger, Van Slyke, Maness

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The indispensable Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an overview of a vast number of players electing free agency following the 2017 season in his latest Minor Transactions roundup. Eddy largely focuses on players with big league service time (significant service time, in some cases) that were outrighted off the roster that are now hitting the open market for the first time. (Players with three-plus years of service that are not on the 40-man roster at season’s end can elect free agency, as can any player that has been outrighted on multiple occasions in his career.)

While the vast majority of these players seem likely to sign minor league pacts this winter — they did, after all, go unclaimed by 29 other teams on waivers — a number of them are still intriguing with recent success in their past and/or multiple years of arbitration eligibility remaining. Eddy’s rundown also contains a number of re-signed minor leaguers and released minor leaguers without big league experience as well as Arizona Fall League assignments on a per-team basis, so it’s well worth a full look.

We’ve updated our list of 2017-18 MLB free agents accordingly, and here are some of the new names now checking in on the list…

Depth options in the rotation

Josh Collmenter, Asher Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison, Jeff Locke, Kyle Kendrick, Mike Bolsinger, Christian Bergman, David Holmberg

Collmenter is just two seasons removed from being the D-backs Opening Day starter but hasn’t had much success of late. Hutchison had solid Triple-A numbers and once looked like a long-term rotation piece in Toronto before Tommy John surgery. He can be controlled for another three seasons in arbitration. Locke was injured for most of an ugly first (and likely only) season in Miami, and Kendrick made just two starts for the Red Sox.

Wojciechowski (6.50 ERA in 62 1/3 innings with the Reds), Bolsinger (6.31 ERA in 41 1/3 innings with the Jays), Bergman (5.00 ERA in 54 innings with the Mariners) and Holmberg (4.68 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with the White Sox) all soaked up innings for injury-plagued pitching staffs. Bolsinger has had the most MLB experience of the bunch.

Corner Bats

Scott Van Slyke, Tyler Moore, Cody Asche, Conor Gillaspie, Jaff Decker

Van Slyke has long been a solid bat against left-handed pitching but appeared in just 29 games with the Dodgers and didn’t hit well with their Triple-A affiliate or with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate. (He was included in the Tony Cingrani trade to balance out the financial side of the deal.) Moore, also a right-handed bat, showed power but struggled to get on base.

Once one of the Phillies’ top prospects, Asche hit well in Triple-A Charlotte but flopped in a brief stint with the ChiSox. Gillaspie was unable to replicate his 2016 rebound with the Giants, while Decker showed some on-base skills in the Majors and minors but didn’t hit much overall. (He can play center but hasn’t graded well there in the Majors.)

Utility Infielders

Ruben Tejada, Phil Gosselin, Dusty Coleman, Chase d’Arnaud

Each of the four can play all over the diamond, but none provided offensive value in 2017. Tejada has the most big league experience but hasn’t received much playing time since 2015 (and hasn’t performed well when he has gotten opportunities). Gosselin has a solid defensive reputation but a light bat through 551 MLB PAs. Coleman hit four homers in 71 PAs in his MLB debut this year but logged a .268 OBP. d’Arnaud saw his fair share of 2016 action with the Braves but has never produced much at the plate.

Bullpen options

Kevin Siegrist (L), Josh Edgin (L), Seth Maness, Kevin Quackenbush

Siegrist and Edgin are intriguing names for clubs in need of left-handed bullpen help. Both have recent success on their track records, though Edgin wasn’t as sharp in 2017 as he was prior to 2015 Tommy John surgery. Siegrist’s control eroded in 2017 as he missed time due to a back/spinal injury and tendinitis in his left forearm, but he was one of the Cardinals’ top setup options in both 2015 and 2016. Both lefties are controllable through 2019.

Maness drew headlines for returning from a torn UCL in roughly seven months thanks to an experimental new “primary repair” procedure, but while he stayed healthy in 2017, the results weren’t great in the Majors and especially not in Triple-A (6.13 ERA in 47 innings). Quackenbush was excellent as a rookie in 2014 and solid in 2015-16 before imploding in 2017 (7.86 ERA in 26 1/3 innings). He was better but not great in Triple-A (3.90 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9). Maness could be controlled through 2019, while Quackenbush would have three more years of control.

Royals Make Coaching Staff Changes

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  • The Royals have formally named Dale Sveum their new bench coach and Mitch Maier as their new first base coach, GM Dayton Moore tells reporters (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan). Former first base coach Rusty Kuntz will remain with the organization but will have a new, yet-unspecified role. Sveum’s promotion means that the Royals will be in the market for a new hitting coach in addition to a new pitching coach following the decision to part ways with Dave Eiland.
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