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Santana Seeks $100MM; Nolasco Looking For $80MM

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Free agent, right-handed starters Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco are both looking for five-year deals, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The former hopes to earn a $100MM guarantee, while Nolasco is asking for $80MM, sources tell Rosenthal. 

Of course, it is still early, and players' agents are probably still feeling out how baseball's revenue increases will translate to free agent dollars. The pair of durable thirty-year-olds, who were born within a day of each other, just put up respective 3.0 fWAR campaigns. For Santana, his 3.24 ERA over 211 innings for the Royals was a marked improvement on a terrible 2012. Throwing for the Marlins and Dodgers, Nolasco's 3.70 ERA across 199 1/3 innings was his best since 2008. Santana is still weighing a qualifying offer, though there is little doubt he'll reject it, while Nolasco was ineligible due to his mid-season trade.

MLBTR recently provided full profiles of both pitchers. Steve Adams predicted a five-year, $75MM pact for Santana. And after profiling Nolasco back in September, Tim Dierkes upped his estimate on Nolasco to four years and $52MM in his list of the top fifty free agents.  

AL Central Notes: Hosmer, Santana, Twins, White Sox

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The Tigers would love to hammer out an extension with Max Scherzer, one of three finalists for this year's AL Cy Young award, but Tim Dierkes wrote yesterday that it is highly unlikely to happen this winter.  The standout hurler is projected to earn $13.6MM in arbitration this year and his rising price tag could even lead Detroit to explore a deal this offseason.  Here's tonight's look around the AL Central..

  • The Royals have yet to discuss an extension with Eric Hosmer, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter).  "I’m locked in for another four years, and we have guys whose contracts expire before mine," Hosmer said.  The 24-year-old hit .302/.353/.448 with 17 homers this past season.
  • The Twins have formally expressed interest in free agent hurler Ervin Santana, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). Santana could prove to be too pricey for Minnesota, however, as Tim predicts that he will command a deal in the range of $75MM over five years.
  • Walk year disappointments and poor investments have made it difficult for the White Sox to take advantage of the qualifying offer system, writes Jim Margalus of South Side Sox. The White Sox could have gotten one for Jake Peavy last year, but they instead signed him to a two-year deal and flipped him to Boston in a deal that netted them Avisail Garcia.
  • The Twins have a host of problems to address, but their biggest shortcoming is their starting pitching, writes Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN.  Twins starting pitchers ranked last in the American League in ERA, innings, strikeout rate, and Wins Above Replacement in 2013.  

Hudson Has Offer From Braves; Other Teams Interested

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4:57pm: Eight teams have contacted Hudson, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Giants, Red Sox, A's and Rangers have all reached out in addition to the Braves, Indians and Royals.

12:30pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets that close to 10 teams have already expressed interest in Hudson.

12:25pm: Not surprisingly, Tim Hudson won't be receiving a qualifying offer, but the Braves have already extended him a one-year offer to return for the 2014 season, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman doesn't have the financial details of the offer beyond its one-year term, but he notes that the Indians and Royals have both already expressed interest in luring Hudson away from the Braves.

According to Bowman, Indians manager Terry Francona has already had a lengthy phone call with Hudson, and Royals manager Ned Yost plans to contact him later in the week. Hudson and agent Paul Cohen of TWC Sports have yet to make a counter offer to the Braves' proposed one-year pact.

Hudson is set to have a screw removed from his ankle this week — the final step in his recovery from a gruesome fracture suffered in late July when Eric Young stepped on his foot in a close play at first base. Hudson could be throwing off a mound within two weeks of the screw's removal, writes Bowman.

On the Brian McCann front, Bowman lists the Rangers as the early front-runners to sign the longtime Braves backstop as a free agent, though he notes that the Yankees and Red Sox are also expected to be in the mix. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes confirmed earlier today, McCann will receive a qualifying offer. He's a lock to reject that offer and hit the open market, though.

Royals To Make Qualifying Offer To Ervin Santana

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3:58pm: The Royals confirmed that they have made a qualifying offer, per Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter).

12:46pm: The Royals have indicated to Ervin Santana that he will receive a qualifying offer, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (on Twitter). The $14.1MM offer will allow the Royals to receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round should Santana reject the offer and sign elsewhere.

That's the most likely scenario for Santana, who rebounded from a disastrous 2012 season to turn in 211 innings of a 3.24 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Santana figures to be one of the top three arms on the free agent market along with Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza, which led me to predict a five-year, $75MM contract for the righty on the open market in my free agent profile of him last month.

Royals Exercise Club Option On James Shields

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The Royals have exercised their $13.5MM club option on ace James Shields, the team announced on Twitter. Shields' option was one of the easiest calls among the many contract options that are facing Major League teams.

Shields, 32 in December, was acquired along with Wade Davis last offseason in a blockbuster trade that sent top prospect (and 2013 AL Rookie of the Year front-runner) Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard to the Rays.

In his first season in Kansas City, Shields racked up a league-leading 228 2/3 innings, posting a 3.15 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 41.6 percent ground-ball rate. Baseball-Reference pegged his value at 4.1 wins above replacement, while Fangraphs was even more of a fan at 4.5 WAR.

Shields will return to the rotation alongside Jeremy Guthrie, but the Royals will need to offer up some serious coin to keep fellow front-line starter Ervin Santana in the fold. Other internal candidates for their rotation include Davis and top prospects Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. Barring an extension, Shields will be eligible for free agency following the 2014 campaign.

AL Central Notes: Royals, Asdrubal, Indians, Hahn

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A few items from around the AL Central…

  • After making a big push to contend in 2013, the Royals need to be willing to raise payroll to put the team over the top next season, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star opines.  "If there was ever a time the Royals had both the resources and motivation to make a push for the short-term, this is it," Mellinger writes.
    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/10/30/4587620/royals-mantra-must-be-spend-now.html#storylink=cpy
  • The Indians won't move Asdrubal Cabrera this offseason, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer predicts during his podcast with Dan Labbe.  Shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor isn't ready and is coming off a significant back injury, and Mike Aviles is a better fit for the Tribe as a bench player.  Cabrera hit only .242/.299/.402 in 562 PA in 2013 and will be a free agent following the 2014 season.
  • "There is so much focus on the offense, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Tribe approaches upgrading its defense this winter," MLB.com's Jordan Bastian writes in an examination of the Indians' fielding numbers.  Cleveland had a team UZR/150 of -4.5 in 2013, the fifth-worst UZR/150 of any club in baseball.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that he'd like to get his team back on the winning track as quickly as the Red Sox did from 2012 to 2013 but that might not involve mining the free agent market as much as Boston did.  "There's not going to be a free agent — premium or otherwise — who we don't view as helping us that we won't check in on at least….We're not ruling anything out.  But the options in the free-agent market probably won't be quite as robust as some trade opportunities," Hahn said.  The bigger-picture plan for Hahn is to build from within rather than just pursue "short-term fixes." 
  • In AL Central news from earlier today, White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham is drawing trade interest from the Blue Jays, and the Tigers will not be re-signing free agent catcher Brayan Pena.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals came close to a playoff berth for the first time in decades in 2013, but major questions surround their rotation heading into the offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

Contract Options

Free Agents

General Manager Dayton Moore’s rebuild of the Royals' organization finally bore fruit at the Major League level in 2013, as products of the farm system and trades helped propel the team to its first winning campaign since 2003. No longer the American League Central’s perennial doormat, the Royals remained in the hunt for a wild card spot until the final weeks of the season, a significant step forward for a club that hasn’t been considered a legitimate contender in at least 20 years. The accomplishment netted manager Ned Yost a two-year contract extension, and something similar could be in the pipeline for Moore. His current deal runs through 2014, and it’s not often that a manager’s contract extends beyond that of the GM who hired him.

Following an 86-win season, conventional wisdom might suggest that Royals officials simply need to make a few tweaks to push the club into contention in the AL Central. And indeed, with players considered to be franchise cornerstones at several positions across the diamond, the Royals are unlikely to see a large-scale makeover this winter on the offensive side of the ball. Young players such as first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Salvador Perez turned in strong seasons. Shortstop Alcides Escobar and third baseman Mike Moustakas were liabilities at the plate, but both continued to play good defense and look to get at least one more season’s worth of plate appearances to try to figure things out. Left fielder Alex Gordon and designated hitter Billy Butler, other franchise fixtures, are coming off of down seasons but have time left on long-term extensions.

The Royals’ bullpen is also unlikely to see significant turnover. While we can’t count on Royals relievers to be as dominant in 2014 as they were this year — the unit’s 2.55 ERA was easily the AL’s best — all key contributors are in line to return next season. Pieces like Greg Holland (67 IP, 1.21 ERA), Tim Collins (53 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA) and Aaron Crow (48 IP, 3.38 ERA) are under club control for years to come, so expect any bullpen signings to be limited to deals for situational arms. Luke Hochevar is a bit of a wildcard, as his success this year in the pen (70 1/3 IP, 1.92 ERA) could lead the Royals to try him again as a starter.

Things change when we turn to the rotation, where Moore and his lieutenants may find themselves making significant investments this winter just to stay in place. Ervin Santana stands out as the most prominent example — his 211 innings of 3.24 ERA ball will be tough to replace if he departs to another team in free agency. While there’s some possibility that the Royals could retain Santana — they’ve already indicated they plan to extend him a qualifying offer, which would depress other teams’ enthusiasm for the righty — the No. 6 ranked player on our Free Agent Power Rankings is likely to attract plenty of other suitors. In addition, Moore has said that he expects 2014’s payroll to hover in the range of this season’s $82MM, suggesting Santana could quickly price himself beyond the Royals’ budget. Another decision looms with free agent Bruce Chen, whose 3.27-ERA, 121-inning season places him firmly in crafty lefty territory. The Royals may opt to pass on bringing back the 36-year-old Chen, however, if his asking price extends to two years.

There’s more uncertainty in the rotation behind Santana and Chen. It’s an open question how long Jeremy Guthrie can continue his low strikeout rate tightrope act, as his K% fell to 12.3% this season, good for last in the majors among qualified starters. Guthrie doesn’t walk many batters, but it’s difficult to survive in today’s game if you don’t miss more bats than Guthrie does. Elsewhere in the rotation, Wade Davis may get another shot at turning things around in 2014, but he should be on a short leash if he doesn’t turn in better results than the 5.32 ERA he coughed up this year. Even rotation anchor James Shields, the prize of the controversial Wil Myers trade, saw his peripherals slip despite a sterling 3.15 ERA in 228 2/3 innings. If he posts similar strikeout and walk rates next year, Shields could see his ERA rise to something more in line with the 3.72 that xFIP projected him for this year.

Luckily, several young pitchers may be ready to help the Royals’ staff in 2014. Yordano Ventura turned heads in the season’s final weeks by lighting up the radar gun with a triple-digit fastball, and he should be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2014 Spring Training — particularly if the club can’t hang on to Santana. Top prospect Kyle Zimmer could reach the big-league team at some point next season. There’s also Danny Duffy, who clawed his way back from Tommy John surgery to make five starts as the season drew to a close. If one of these three can stick in the majors in 2014, the rotation picture looks magnitudes brighter.

In an October Kansas City Star article, Moore was quoted as saying that the Royals would like to add or retain a veteran starter, given the inexperience of pitchers such as Ventura and Duffy. One-year deals for a reclamation project along the lines of Dan Haren or Phil Hughes could make sense, or the Royals could look to swing a trade for an arm with bounce-back potential, as they did with Santana around this time last year. However, Moore adds in the same article that it’s not inconceivable that the Royals enter 2014 without having acquired a veteran pitcher. “The bullpen was used very wisely this year,” Moore said. “ … If our bullpen has to be used a little bit more next year in the first part of the season, so be it.” Comments such as these suggest that the Royals will look to make an acquisition but are comfortable with the pieces they have in place if the right opportunity doesn’t materialize.

After the team scored just 648 runs this season, many Royals fans expect Moore to conduct a thorough search for offensive help over the winter. Second base stands out as an immediate need, as Royals second basemen hit just .240/.296/.306 for the year. Emilio Bonifacio slashed his way to a .285/.352/.348 line and stole 16 bases down the stretch after coming over from the Blue Jays in August, appearing to stabilize the position for the Royals. However, The Star’s Bob Dutton writes that the club will still look to acquire a second baseman this winter, with an eye toward shifting Bonifacio to a utility role. Who might pique their interest?

The Royals’ name surfaced frequently in trade talks surrounding the Angels’ Howie Kendrick in July, and as an above-average hitter who’s provided quality defense at second base, he appears to be a fit. However, Kendrick will require a significant prospect haul in return. Ian Kinsler is another veteran target, given the Rangers’ middle infielder logjam, but he’s just a year into a five-year, $75MM contract — consummating a deal would likely require the Rangers to absorb a significant portion of that amount. It goes without saying, but trades for proven performers like these would be expensive and risky for a small-market team like the Royals. And yet, I’d be surprised to see Moore target a buy-low candidate like Danny Espinosa or Rickie Weeks – with Bonifacio in the fold, the Royals can afford to be a bit more selective.

It's worth noting that ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted earlier this week that the Royals are "ready to talk" about including Butler in a trade this winter, a report Dutton later confirmed. Dutton noted, however, that Moore has indicated he's willing to trade any player in the right deal. Dealing Country Breakfast for say, an everyday second baseman this winter would be selling low on a player who posted a 116 OPS+ this season but who had previously managed a mark of at least 125 every year since 2009. It would also immediately task the Royals with finding DH help outside the organization, as there doesn't appear to be a player in the minors ready to replace Butler.

If the Royals can't put together a trade for a second baseman, Omar Infante could be an option — behind Robinson Cano, he’s probably the best player available at the keystone in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $25MM deal for the 31-year-old, which might be in the Royals’ price range. Beyond Infante, though, it’s an uninspiring market.

The outfield would also appear to be in need of an upgrade — Royals outfielders collectively hit just .259/.314/.392 in 2013. However, that same group also combined for a 52.5 UZR, suggesting that they were the majors’ best defensive outfield by a wide margin. Adding a marquee name like Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury is likely out of the question for the Royals, and the club may eventually decide that the defense-focused unit they have in place is a better fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium than a free agent outfielder from the second tier. Nelson Cruz, for example, hasn’t posted quality defensive numbers for years. And in Kauffman, he may not provide enough of an offensive upgrade over the late-season David Lough–Justin Maxwell platoon to counteract the defensive downgrade. Instead, a player like Marlon Byrd could work for the Royals, as he grades out as a strong right fielder and could provide an offensive boost even with some regression from this year's standout season.

The Royals found themselves on the cusp of contention in 2013 for the first time in decades. However, the club must address multiple holes this offseason if it hopes to stay there. Significant regression is likely in the starting rotation, and success in 2014 likely hinges on whether Moore & Co. can counteract it. The Royals will also need to find a way to add to their young offense, as this isn’t a playoff-caliber lineup as currently projected.

Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana

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It's been an eventful 12 months for Ervin Santana. It seems hard to believe that just a year ago, Royals GM Dayton Moore's decision to acquire Santana and $1MM for minor leaguer Brandon Sisk was widely panned. Since that time, Santana resurfaced as one of the better pitchers in the American League, one of the game's top trade chips at the deadline and of course, one of the most desirable free agents on the market.

Strengths/Pros

Santana shaved nearly two runs off his ERA this season, dropping it to 3.24 and crossing 200 innings for the fifth time in his nine-year career. Durability is one of Santana's biggest assets; he's only been on the disabled list twice in his career. Dating back to 2011, Santana's average of 6.5 innings per start is the highest of any notable free agent. That ability to work deep into games is a boost for teams looking to avoid overtaxing their bullpens.  Santana-Ervin

Santana's 92.4 mph average fastball is among the fastest for free agent starters this season. Only Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett and Scott Kazmir throw harder. Lester's option will be picked up, however, while Volquez and Johnson posted two of baseball's worst ERAs. If you're looking for a starter that can average better than 92 mph on his fastball, Santana is a cut above the rest. In terms of swinging-strike rate, only Burnett, Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Capuano topped Santana's 10 percent mark.

Santana's career 2.8 BB/9 rate is a testament to his excellent control, but he took that a step further in 2013. Santana's 2.2 BB/9 rate is fifth-best among qualified starters. Removing three intentional walks from the equation, that number drops to 2.0. Santana also continued to display an increased ground-ball rate, posting a career-best 46.5 percent mark in 2013 — his third-straight season of at least 43.2 percent.

Age is on Santana's side; he's set to turn 31 in December, making him younger than a number of his peers and bringing the promise of a few more of his prime years over the course of his next contract.

Weaknesses/Cons

Santana is homer-prone (career 1.22 HR/9), and the homer bug bit fiercely in 2012 when his 39 long balls allowed were the most in the Majors. That season was a clear outlier, as evidenced by a remarkably fluky 18.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio (the league average that season was 11.8 percent, and Santana's career mark is 11 percent). Even if you ignore the outlier season, however, only twice has he posted a HR/9 better than the league average.

For a player who is positioned as one of the top pitchers on the free agent market, Santana doesn't strike hitters out at an elite rate. His 6.9 K/9 in 2013 was below the league average of 7.2 for starting pitchers, and he hasn't averaged more than 7.0 punchouts per nine innings since 2008. 

I'd be remiss not to point out that Santana was little more than a salary dump a year ago at this time. The Royals' acquisition of him was widely questioned, as he was coming off a season in which he posted a 5.16 ERA — his second ERA north of 5.00 in a four-year span. Santana does not have consistency on his side, and he pitched below replacement level in 2012.

Part of the reason for his other 5.00+ ERA season (5.03 in 2009) was that he partially tore his UCL and elected to rehab and pitch through it. His ERA that season is probably more representative of the injury than his ability, as he posted a 7.81 first-half ERA but a 3.90 second-half ERA (3.09 in his final 12 appearances). Santana has never had the injury corrected, but it doesn't appear to be a major issue, as he's thrown 980 innings since partially tearing the ligament. Put another way, Santana has thrown nearly as many innings since the 2009 injury as one of his competitors, Josh Johnson, has thrown in his entire career dating back to 2005.

Advanced metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that even in Santana's best seasons, he's more of a 3.90-4.00 ERA pitcher. Those may be a bit unfair, as he's shown the ability to consistently post a BABIP that's better than the league average, as seen in his .282 career total. It's still hard to ignore the fact that Santana has had just one truly elite season — a 219-inning, six-fWAR (five rWAR) masterpiece back in 2008. He's never been able to replicate his velocity, swinging-strike rate or strikeout rate from that season.

Santana's strong overall numbers in 2013 make a qualifying offer an absolute no-brainer for the Royals, so a team will absolutely have to forfeit its first- or second-round pick to sign him.

Personal

Per the Royals media guide, Santana and his wife, Amy, reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. He enjoys teaching children about baseball fundamentals and is outspoken in the confidence he has in himself and his teammates on Twitter. Santana was a hot topic at MLBTR over the summer months, and he showed off his playful side by making this Youtube video that described how it felt to be the target of so many trade rumors.

Market

Santana parlayed his rebound campaign into a No. 6 ranking on Tim Dierkes' Free Agent Power Rankings, leapfrogging Garza as the top domestic free agent pitcher on the market (Masahiro Tanaka, at No. 5, is the top overall pitcher).

The Royals have made it known that they'd like to re-sign him, but if they're truly reluctant to offer more than three years, Santana is as good as gone. Any team in search of pitching figures to at least place a call on Santana, meaning that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Twins, Indians, Mariners, Giants, Rockies, Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, Phillies and Mets should all have varying degrees of interest.

Of course, not all those teams will be willing to bid high enough to land his services, nor will they all be keen on surrendering a draft pick to acquire Santana. The Twins are one team that has recently said they'd forfeit their second-round selection if they liked a player enough, though Santana is far pricier than their typical mold. On the flip-side of the coin, the Mets seem strongly against the idea of sacrificing their second-round selection for any player other than Shin-Soo Choo.

Expected Contract

ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) that a four-year deal is a likelihood for Santana on the free agent market, adding that he prefers him to Garza and Dan Haren.

I find a four-year deal to be the floor for Santana, and would expect agent Bean Stringfellow of Proformance to seek a five-year pact. Given the sheer volume of teams looking to bolster their rotations and the relatively weak crop of free agent hurlers on the market, Santana has an honest chance at getting there. We've already received a glimpse at what the early market for free agent pitching will look like, with Tim Lincecum agreeing to a two-year, $35MM extension with the Giants.

Going back to 2008, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, CC Sabathia and Burnett have inked free agent deals for five or more seasons. Each of those players was considered one of the top two starters on the market in his respective free agent class. Second-tier pitchers such as Derek Lowe and Edwin Jackson have been able to find lofty four-year commitments, and Santana enters free agency on the heels of a vastly superior season to the one that led to Jackson's four-year, $52MM pact with the Cubs.

As ludicrous as it would've sounded a year ago — and improbable as it will sound to some even now — my expectation is that Santana finds a team willing to push the limits and offer a five-year, $75MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Wakamatsu, Wedge, White Sox

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Earlier today it was reported that the Nationals will hire Diamondbacks third base coach and five-time Major League All-Star Matt Williams as their new manager. Though an official announcement has yet to come, it wouldn't be surprising to see the team wait until after the World Series in accordance with MLB's preference for teams not to distract from the World Series (as pointed out by Mark Zuckerman of CSN Washington). Here's the latest on managerial vacancies and coach hirings from around the league…

  • The Royals announced that they have named former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu as their Major League bench coach and promoted Mike Jirschele from Triple-A Omaha manager to Major League coach. Wakamatsu will also work as a special instructor for catchers. Jirschele, the Royals note, led the Storm Chasers to their second Pacific Coast League title of the past three seasons in 2013 (All Twitter links).
  • ESPN's Keith Law points out (via Twitter) that Williams is a minority owner of the Diamondbacks and will have to sell his share in order to take the job with the Nationals.
  • The Cubs will interview former Mariners manager Eric Wedge for their managerial vacancy next week, the MLB Network's Peter Gammons said on 670AM The Score in Chicago this morning (h/t: Gordon WIttenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).
  • The White Sox will hire Todd Steverson as their Major League hitting coach, according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. Steverson, who will soon turn 42, has served as a minor league manager and hitting coach in the A's organization as well as Oakland's Major League first base coach. Merkin offers past quotes from Steverson, who talked about the importance of controlled aggression in the box and the dangers of being too passive at the plate.
  • Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reported yesterday that Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon interviewed for the team's managerial vacancy (Twitter link). Crasnick later appeared on 105.1 radio in Detroit and spoke with host Matt Dery about McClendon's candidacy, revealing that the interview lasted four hours (audio link).

Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Royals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

In Holland, Hochevar, Collins, and Crow, four mainstays of the Royals' excellent bullpen are arbitration eligible.  Holland was flat-out dominant, earning an All-Star nod while posting a 1.21 ERA with 47 saves and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.  With a few more seasons near that level, he could get expensive in a hurry.  There aren't any recent closers who signed extensions with three years of service, but Brian Wilson received about $19.5MM for his three arbitration years.  Hochevar finally found his calling in the bullpen and was almost as good as Holland.  While he's approaching the market price for a setup man, keeping him in front of Holland and shortening games to seven innings again next year is surely appealing to the Royals.  

Collins and Crow had problems with free passes and scuffled at times in 2013, but are penciled into next year's pen as well.  Collins is a southpaw, but otherwise the Royals are deep in right-handed relief and may be able to use part of the surplus in a trade.

Mendoza won the Royals' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, but was demoted to the bullpen in July.  He was used sparingly in a mop-up role and was hit hard in his six relief appearances to close out the season.  A non-tender is possible despite his low projected salary, or he could be traded.  Paulino underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2012, allowing the Royals to pull off the rare salary decrease in arbitration.  His rehab efforts this year were cut short due to a cyst in his shoulder, on which he had surgery in September.  The Royals will be able to bring him back one more time for around the same salary, and if his recovery is going well, it's probably worth doing.

After a lousy 2012, Hosmer bounced back with a strong campaign just in time for the first of four potential arbitration years.  I'd suggest an Allen Craig or Billy Butler type of extension, but Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, and he's never done that type of deal.  Elsewhere among the Royals' position players, Bonifacio and Maxwell will have roles on next year's team, with strong showings after coming over in summer trades.

Though they would be cheap to retain, Getz, Hayes, and Kottaras are non-tender candidates.  Getz won the Royals' starting second base job out of Spring Training, but was optioned to Triple-A in June and missed time with a knee injury upon his return to the Majors.  Hayes, a November waiver claim from the Marlins, was on and off the 40-man roster this year and was third on the Royals' catching depth chart.  Kottaras, a January waiver claim from the Athletics, won the backup catcher job out of camp and held it for the season.  It seems likely Hayes will lose his 40-man spot again, while Kottaras may stay on as Salvador Perez's backup unless the Royals decide they need an upgrade.

Assuming the Royals tender contracts to Hochevar, Holland, Hosmer, Bonifacio, Paulino, Crow, Kottaras, Maxwell, and Collins, they're looking at an estimated $24.35MM for nine arbitration eligible players. 

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