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Kris Bryant

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.

Cubs’ Players, Personnel on the State of the Team

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The Cubs are one of two teams without a guaranteed signing this offseason, and there’s a good chance their caution continues. By all accounts, the Cubs will have a chance at returning to National League prominence in 2020 only if they make significant strides internally, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. On that front, there are definitely issues to address.

Star shortstop Javier Baez made the point clearly: “The biggest problem to fix? “I think everybody was being there for the team but at the same time for their own numbers.” Wittenmyer also provides a quote from new manager David Ross, who strikes a similar tone in saying, “I think we’ve got to let everybody talk about us like it use to be – not us talking about other people.”

Given the success of the Nationals’ last season, driven by a persistent narrative of clubhouse camaraderie, coupled with the clear morale questions at the heart of the Astros’ controversy heading into the season, soft skills are having a moment in MLB right now. The Cubs will give the 2020 season another test case. That is, if they can make the clubhouse adjustments the team has been talking about for two seasons now.

As has been the case for most of the offseason, however, the conversation never veers far from the grievance filed by Kris Bryant, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. The Cubs continue to wait for a resolution.

President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein answered questions about the open case – as he has all offseason – at the outset of the Cubs’ Convention. Said Epstein, “Our role was to show up when they told us to show up, answer questions truthfully, which we did, and sit back and wait for a decision. There were a lot of documents and a lot of arguments involved in the case. We respect the role of the arbitrator. He’s gotta work through everything methodically until he’s confident in his decision. Then, he can move forward. It’s out of our control; we’re not going to worry about it. Whenever it happens, it happens.”

A ruling would theoretically free the Cubs to take final offers on a Bryant trade and consummate a deal, if there’s one out there to Epstein’s liking. Moving Bryant would get the Cubs under the luxury tax, clearly a benchmark they’d like to clear prior to the 2020 season.

That said, don’t expect the financial floodgates to open. Removing Bryant’s contract ducks the tax, but not enough to create space to sign, say, Nicholas Castellanos. Other than Castellanos, who took a definite liking to Wrigley Field last season, there aren’t a lot of free agents that make sense for the Cubs at this time. Not anymore. There’s certainly nobody available that comes close to matching Bryant in talent. There are other ways the Cubs could sneak under the tax that would be less harmless to their on-field product in 2020, so moving Bryant only makes sense if the return satisfies Epstein’s asking price.

For now, the waiting game continues on the Northside, much to the chagrin of the fanbase. Their inactivity is well-documented, addressed yesterday by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco here, but it remains one of the stories of the offseason. The only imaginable impact move left for the Cubs is dealing Bryant for a young collection of  players that can help both now and in the future. Whether a team like the Braves or Diamondbacks pony up talent enough for Epstein to pull the trigger is the unknown variable that won’t come to light until after the resolution of the Bryant case.

Until then, as Epstein put it (per Sharma), “I think we’re realistic about it. It’s been a few years with some of these guys that we’ve tried to get something done. It hasn’t happened, but that doesn’t mean it can’t in the future. It’s really hard to predict the future. Sometimes you’re only one phone call away from signing a guy to a long-term contract. Sometimes you’re one phone call away from a deal. What’s most likely is the status quo.”

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

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The last elite free agent of the winter came off the board Tuesday when third baseman Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92MM guarantee with Minnesota. Not only does the addition strengthen an already power-happy Twins offense, but it’s also a significant blow for an Atlanta team that received outstanding production from Donaldson in 2019. The club’s situation at third, where Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are in-house front-runners to take over for Donaldson, now looks far less imposing sans Donaldson.

Camargo was effective as recently as two years ago, but his production nosedived during a season to forget in 2019. Riley’s not far removed from a run as a standout prospect, and he began his major league career well last season. However, thanks largely to a bloated strikeout rate (36.4 percent), he endured enormous struggles as 2019 progressed.

There aren’t any obvious answers left at third in free agency, so the Braves could begin the season with what they have at the position and opt for a power bat at another spot (Marcell Ozuna? Nicholas Castellanos?). On the other hand, there are two all-world trade chips in the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado looming on that market.

While Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Braves are “expected” to revisit previous talks with the Cubs regarding Bryant, David O’Brien of The Athletic throws a bit of cold water on that. The Braves “haven’t been gung-ho on either,” per O’Brien. As was reported previously, the Braves have concerns over Bryant’s defense. And the former MVP’s contract status figures to help stand in the way of a trade with the Braves or anyone else for at least a little while longer. The Cubs and the rest of the league continue to await word on whether Bryant has one or two years of control left after he filed a service-time grievance in October.

Similarly, there are questions over how much longer it’ll be before Arenado becomes a free agent. Unlike Bryant, Arenado is on a long-term contract – a guaranteed $234MM over seven years – but he will be able to opt out of it after his age-30 season in 2021. The massive amount left on Arenado’s deal, his opt-out rights and a hesitance to surrender multiple prospects for him have led to wariness from the Braves, according to O’Brien.

As of last month, general manager Alex Anthopolous and the Braves were on the hunt for a middle-of-the-order hitter. The hope then was that Donaldson would take on that role again in 2020, but the two-time reigning NL East champions’ lineup suddenly looks much weaker now that he’s gone. With strong free-agent options dwindling, the Braves hardly shoo-ins to land either Bryant or Arenado, and their projected Opening-Day payroll ($140MM) already $5MM higher than last year’s season-ending outlay, it’s unclear where the Braves will go from here.

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez

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The Dodgers have struck a record-breaking arbitration deal with outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Bellinger is said to have a $11.5MM pact, topping the prior record (Kris Bryant, $10.85MM) for a first-time arb-eligible player.

Other top performers have also reached deals. Corey Seager will play at a $7.6MM salary. And utilityman Enrique Hernandez will earn $5.9MM, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).

Bellinger lands right at the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. As Matt explained in a closer look, though, there was an argument for the reigning NL MVP to earn even more. He’ll still end up setting a new high-water mark for arbitration rookies by a fairly healthy margin.

Entering 2019, Bellinger had already established himself as a high-quality hitter and versatile defender. But he took things to a whole new level in his age-23 season, slashing a hefty .305/.406/.629 and launching 47 home runs while delivering big value on the bases and with the glove.

The projections were also close for Seager ($7.1MM) and Hernandez ($5.5MM). Both players were at less than top form in 2019 but remain key contributors — at least, unless they end up being shuffled out of the deck with a spring trade.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Latest NL Central Chatter

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It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.

More from the NL Central:

  • The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
  • There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
  • The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.

Offseason Notes: Nationals, Free Agents, Rays, Cubs, Bryant, Contreras

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The World Champion Washington Nationals are likely to move on from their remaining free agents, save for local institution Ryan Zimmerman and perhaps his first base partner Matt Adams, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. That means Daniel Hudson has likely priced himself out of the Nationals’ plans. Fernando Rodney could get another shot on a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has handed those out rather liberally this winter, and the bullpen barracks are looking pretty full: Javy Guerra, Fernando Abad, and David Hernandez are all competing for bullpen spots on minor league deals while Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, Tanner Rainey, Wander Suero and Roenis Elias look pretty good to secure their seats at the table. Hunter Strickland, and one of Joe Ross, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde could also very well end up in the bullpen, leaving just a spot or two as truly up for grabs. Brian Dozier, the last of the Nats’ five remaining free agents, is all but gone now that Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have been signed.

  • The Rays have pretty consistently made themselves a good place for January free agents to take their career to the next level, per John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times. A list of short-term additions late in the free agent season have gone on to produce in Tampa Bay and earn themselves a raise the following winter. The partial list of players who went on to earn bigger paydays after leaving Tampa includes Avisail Garcia, Logan Morrison, C.J. Cron, and Corey Dickerson. The time is now for the Rays, who typically strike about this time of year, and they still have needs to fill. Expect Tampa to add another bat and another catcher before the winter is out.
  • The Cubs have lingered in the shadows throughout the winter, and though a Kris Bryant trade has been clearly telegraphed, the star third baseman remains in Chicago due to asking price, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago. Speaking to people around the game, Kaplan found real skepticism that Bryant remains the foundational superstar he was in 2016. That hasn’t stopped the Cubs from asking for the moon, with the same being true of their asking price for Willson Contreras. Theo Epstein and the Cubs are in a tough place after seeing their championship window slam closed last season, and it’s understandable for the braintrust in Chicago to hold out hope for a franchise-altering return for one of their homegrown stars. But if the return they seek never materializes, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of alternative plan they can cook up to keep these Cubs viable.

Talks Between Nationals, Cubs On Kris Bryant Have ‘Gone Nowhere’

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Recent talks between the Cubs and Nationals regarding Kris Bryant have “gone nowhere,” reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Negotiations seemed to hit an impasse a few weeks ago, when the Cubs reportedly insisted upon the inclusion of promising center fielder Víctor Robles in any Bryant deal.

Notably, Washington has agreed to terms with Asdrúbal Cabrera on a one-year deal since Rosenthal’s report. Perhaps that takes them out of the running for Bryant or Nolan Arenado, two of the top trade candidates on the market, regardless. Cabrera, though, wouldn’t figure to stand in the way of an acquisition of a player as good as Bryant or Arenado. Indeed, Washington still doesn’t seem to be entirely ruling out a signing of star free agent Josh Donaldson. There’s yet opportunity to circle back to more eye-catching names than Cabrera and Starlin Castro, who the Nationals brought aboard yesterday.

Understandably, the Cubs seem to be setting a high price in talks on Bryant. Interested suitors, meanwhile, are wary of Bryant’s service time grievance. At the moment, the 28-year-old has two years of team control remaining. His $18.5MM projected salary is notable but still an unquestionable bargain for a player of his caliber. If Bryant wins the grievance, however (an outcome that would be unexpected but hardly impossible), he’d reach free agency at the end of next season instead. In that case, he would still be a highly appealing trade chip, but his value would no doubt take a hit. Thus, Bryant seems likely to stay put until the grievance is resolved.

Either way, it doesn’t appear Bryant will be headed to the nation’s capital, barring an unforeseen reignition of talks. Teams who lose out on Donaldson and Arenado would figure to be Bryant’s most ardent pursuers. The Braves, Rangers, and Twins have been among the most active searchers for upgrades at the hot corner. Of course, there’s no urgent need for the Cubs to trade Bryant, who, despite the pending grievance, might still be amenable to working out a long-term deal.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Bryant, Tigers, Puig, Mets, Dellin

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A service-time grievance and trade rumors have been dominant topics this offseason centering on Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. But Bryant, who will turn 28 on Saturday, would still prefer to spend his entire career with the Cubs, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score hears. That depends in part on whether the club would be willing to give the third baseman “fair value” in an extension, though. To this point, there hasn’t been any word about serious extension talks between the two sides. As of now, after his grievance hearing in October, the main question is whether Bryant has one or two years of team control left. The decision figures to have a significant impact on his future.

More from around the game…

  • If free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig ends up scoring a multiyear contract, which is far from a sure thing, it’s “unlikely” the Tigers will be the team that gives it to him, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com writes. That said, credible outfield possibilities in free agency are decreasing, and the Tigers look to be in desperate need of help there. Their projected 2020 trio of JaCoby Jones, Christin Stewart and Harold Castro combined for minus-1.7 fWAR in 2019.
  • The Mets opened up a windfall of cash when they agreed to an amended contract with injury-laden outfielder Yoenis Cespedes two weeks ago. A few days later, the team reached a guaranteed $10.5MM deal with reliever Dellin Betances. However, according to general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, there’s no connection between the two transactions. “The specifics of Cespedes’ resolution didn’t necessarily drive this decision. It was more the desire to get this player,” said Van Wagenen, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Van Wagenen added that the Mets’ pursuit of Betances began at the general managers’ meetings in November, long before they changed Cespedes’ contract.
  • It seems interest in outfielder Kim Jae-Hwan has been hard to come by since he was posted Dec. 5, but the free agent has every intention of riding out the process, his agent, Kim Pyung-ki, told Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. Kim only has until Sunday to find a contract; otherwise, he’ll return to his Korea Baseball Organization club, the Doosan Bears, and won’t be eligible for another posting until November. So far this offseason, only the Marlins have been connected to Kim, but “they seemed lukewarm in their response after watching footage of Kim in action,” Yoo writes. And Miami has signed fellow outfielder Corey Dickerson, perhaps taking it out of the Kim sweepstakes entirely.

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