Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers
Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.
Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):
- Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.
Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):
- Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.
Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):
- Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):
- It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.
Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):
- The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.
Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):
- Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.
Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):
- As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.
Angels Designate Matt Harvey For Assignment
The Angels announced that they have designated righty Matt Harvey for assignment. The move comes on the heels of yet another rough outing for the 30-year-old former ace.
There are several other pitching moves coming for Los Angeles. Righty Jake Jewell was optioned out, creating room for the team to recall right-hander Jaime Barria and first baseman/left-handed pitcher Jared Walsh.
The Halos also announced that Keynan Middleton has been diagnosed with mild ulnar neuritis. While the good news is that he isn’t dealing with a structural issue, the reliever has been returned from his rehab assignment. His timeline for a full return remains unclear.
Harvey has posted brutal numbers for much of the season, struggling to find any kind of consistency. His one-year, $11MM contract has simply not worked out. It’s much the same story for the other veterans inked to one-year contracts over the winter, with Cody Allen ($8MM) long since released and Trevor Cahill ($9MM) limping along at much the same pace as Harvey.
While those signings are all disappointing, it remains particularly jarring to see the former Mets star Harvey struggling to stay afloat in the bigs. He lost yet more velocity this season and was near the bottom of the league in statistics ranging from strikeout percentage (14.7%) to the expected batting average (.302) and slugging percentage (.524) of opposing hitters, as measured by Statcast.
All told, Harvey has managed only 59 2/3 innings of 7.09 ERA pitching this year for the Angels. With 5.9 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 and nearly two long balls per regulation game, ERA estimators did not take a much more optimistic view of his contributions. He graded out with a 6.35 FIP, 5.43 xFIP, and 5.78 SIERA.
It’s not at all clear where Harvey will go from here. Perhaps an effort to rebuild his repertoire or otherwise find a new approach will be necessary. Even if his arm speed won’t ever fully return, there’ll surely be teams interested in seeing if they can unlock some of the immense talent that Harvey showed during his heyday with the Mets.
In a 65-start run from 2012-2015, Harvey threw 427 innings of 2.53 ERA ball for the New York organization that drafted him. That included exceptional work both before and after the Tommy John procedure that cost him the 2014 campaign. After extending himself in the Mets’ 2015 World Series run — he kept pitching down the stretch and threw 26 2/3 excellent postseason innings after a memorable dispute arose over his availability — Harvey’s health took a turn for the worse. He ultimately underwent a procedure to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome in the summer of 2016. While Harvey has had stretches of useful MLB work since, he has never come close to regaining his early form.
Angels Focused On Acquiring Players Controlled Beyond 2019
At 50-48 and 11 games back in the American League West, the Angels don’t have much hope of contending for a division title. They’re one of six AL clubs with a plausible shot at a Wild Card spot, however, currently sitting five and a half games back in the standings. That might not put them in position to be one of the market’s most aggressive buyers, but general manager Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he’s “absolutely” looking to add to his roster.
Eppler specifies that the Halos will “lean heavily” toward players controlled beyond the 2019 season, likely due to the fact that they’re chasing a one-game playoff. Clubs are generally reluctant to be too aggressive in selling off significant farm assets for a coinflip Wild Card showdown, making Eppler’s approach a fairly straightforward one.
Looking around the Angels’ roster, the pitching staff stands out as a logical area on which to focus. Neither Matt Harvey nor Trevor Cahill has performed anywhere close to the manner in which the Angels hoped when signing the pair to one-year deals over the winter, and both will be free agents at season’s end. The tragic death of Tyler Skaggs still enshrouds the organization as well, and while it always feels a bit cold to look at such a heartbreaking event through a pure baseball lens, it’s hard to understate just how significant that loss is for the Angels’ rotation moving forward. Shohei Ohtani will return to the mound in 2020, joining Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning, but there’s little clarity beyond that trio.
The summer trade market should feature several options who are controlled/signed through at least the 2020 season. Marcus Stroman is the likeliest such arm to move, but others potentially available options include Matthew Boyd (arb-eligible through 2022), Robbie Ray (arb-eligible through 2020), Trevor Bauer (arb-eligible through 2020) and Mike Minor (signed for $9.5MM in 2020). Minor is admittedly a tough fit even if is ultimately traded, given that the division-rival Rangers are currently a game ahead of the Angels in the standings. Controllable catching options might be a bit tougher to dig up — Wilson Ramos or James McCann could be available, and the Padres have depth at the position — but the Angels have had a bit of a revolving door behind the plate in recent seasons.
Part of the decision to operate as buyers could also be a function of the fact that the Angels don’t have much in the way of short-term assets to sell. All of the club’s short-term, offseason pickups are either injured (Jonathan Lucroy, Tommy La Stella) or playing poorly (Harvey, Cahill and the already released Cody Allen). The team’s core is controlled beyond this season. Eppler calls moving a player with club control remaining a “non-starter” in trade negotiations, as the front office is focused on an “upward angle” for the team.
The Angels have just under $115MM committed to the payroll for the 2020 season and don’t have may significant arbitration raises on the horizon, so they should be in good position to take on salary in a trade if need be. The team’s current payroll, for context, exceeds $177MM.
AL Notes: Bauer, Castellanos, Pujols, Orioles
Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer turned in a terrific performance Thursday in a win over the Tigers, striking out 10 and yielding three earned runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings. Despite Bauer’s importance to the playoff-contending Indians, his name has been frequently bandied about in trade rumors this summer. As a result, Thursday could’ve been one of his last starts as a member of the Tribe. Asked after the game if the rumors have been on his mind, Bauer told Mandy Bell of MLB.com and other reporters: “Nope. Don’t think about it.” Notably, though, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti did address the team regarding the deadline “to make sure no one was blindsided by any discussions, especially Bauer,” Bell writes.
- The Tigers‘ Nicholas Castellanos is likely a more realistic trade candidate than Bauer, but the right fielder suggested Thursday he’s not fully convinced a deal will come together before the deadline. Castellanos said (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that “I wouldn’t be shocked if I don’t get traded. Everybody thought I’d get traded last trade deadline. Everybody thought I’d get traded this offseason. There were people who thought I’d get traded in spring training.” With an extension between the non-contending Tigers and Castellanos appearing to be out of the question, it’s highly probable the team will part with him this month unless there’s no interest from elsewhere. Regardless, Castellanos indicated to McCosky that he has made peace with whatever happens and is more focused on what happens on the field, where he has been on an offensive tear of late.
- Angels first baseman Albert Pujols exited the team’s game Thursday with left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report (Twitter links). It doesn’t seem like an issue that’s going to lead to an IL stint, though, as manager Brad Ausmus said afterward Pujols will miss a small amount of time or none at all. The Hall of Fame-bound 39-year-old has appeared in 76 games this season and hit .243/.306/.439 (96 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 314 plate appearances.
- Thursday was the one-year anniversary of the Orioles-Dodgers blockbuster that sent former O’s franchise player Manny Machado to Los Angeles. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun revisits the swap in a piece focusing on outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz, the headlining part of the Orioles’ five-player return. Diaz didn’t log great production with Baltimore’s Double-A affiliate after the trade last year, and he told Meoli via an interpreter he felt “a lot of pressure” trying to make good on the trade. That pressure has died down, though, and Diaz is now having a better season than last as a member of the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate. The 22-year-old has progressed with the help of Double-A hitting coach Keith Bodie, as Meoli details in his piece.
Outrighted: Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker
We’ll use this post to cover the day’s minor moves, both involving a pair of former Giants outfielders …
- The Mariners announced today that they’ve outrighted Mac Williamson after he cleared waivers. Williamson was designated for assignment following a dreadful run in Seattle — which, in turn, came on the heels of an even worse stint in San Francisco. Williamson carries a .156/.250/.258 slash line on the year and just hasn’t made use of his MLB opportunities over the past five seasons, sporadic though they have been. He is a .266/.344/.488 hitter through over a thousand plate appearances at the Triple-A level, however.
- Meanwhile, the Angels have announced the same exact move for Jarrett Parker. At times, it seemed that Parker might join Williamson as a part of the regular Giants outfield mix, but he was released after the 2017 season. Parker has shown some renewed life this year at Triple-A with the Halos, where he has slashed a hefty .296/.424/.604 and launched 19 long balls. The 30-year-old didn’t get much of a shot at the MLB level, but it bears note that he went down on strikes eight times in just 15 plate appearances.
Hector Neris, Noe Ramirez Receive 3-Game Suspensions
5:03pm: Angels righty Noe Ramirez has also been suspended for a trio of contests after also being deemed to have thrown at the head of a hitter. In his case, he went after Jake Marisnick in apparent retribution for the outfielder’s own recent actions, which resulted in an injury to Halos catcher Jonathan Lucroy and a two-game ban for Marisnick.
Halos skipper Brad Ausmus also took a one-game ban, which he’ll serve tonight. Ramirez will appeal the suspension, he tells reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).
4:44pm: Major League Baseball has announced a three-game suspension for Phillies righty Hector Neris. He was deemed to have thrown intentionally at Dodgers infielder David Freese.
Here’s video of the incident. MLB cited the fact that the pitch was thrown “in the area of the head” of the hitter in explaining its decision.
Neris, the Phils’ closer, will appeal the suspension, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). If he loses or abandons the appeal, the punishment will take him out of the ninth inning for a brief stretch. Some might say that poor performance had already threatened such a move.
It was a brutal showing for Neris last night, as he coughed up three-run bomb to blow his fourth save. All of those have come since June 14th, with three coming since June 27th alone. Neris had a 1.88 ERA in mid-June; that has ballooned to 4.08. He evidently decided to take out his frustration on Freese, who strode to the plate after the ill-fated pitch.
Mike Trout Suffers Minor Calf Strain
MONDAY: An MRI revealed a “small” calf strain, Hoornstra was among those to tweet. Trout’s day-to-day.
SUNDAY, 6:52PM: Trout’s injury isn’t considered to be serious, manager Brad Ausmus told J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (Twitter link). Still, Trout will undergo an MRI on Monday to determine the extent of his calf problem.
5:31PM: Mike Trout left today’s game after two innings due to what the Angels described as right calf tightness, and the star outfielder’s condition is day-to-day. The injury seemingly wasn’t caused by any obvious play on the field — Trout softly lined to first base in his only at-bat of the game, and he didn’t make any defensive plays during his two innings of work. Trout was replaced in center field prior to the beginning of the third inning.
While the removal could have simply been precautionary in nature, any type of injury to baseball’s best player is certainly worth noting. Trout is in the midst of yet another incredible season, with 30 homers and a .305/.455/.666 slash line over 402 plate appearances. He leads the league in any number of categories, including wRC+ (191), fWAR (6.5), offensive bWAR (5.9), on-base percentage, runs created, and walks. (In fact, Trout’s 77 walks top his 70 strikeouts.)
Los Angeles entered today’s action with a 47-46 record, five games behind Oakland for the final American League wild card slot. Needless to say, the Angels’ playoff chances would take a big hit should Trout have to go on the injured list for any lengthy amount of time. He is such a singular driving force in his team’s success that, if the worst-case scenario occurs and Trout does indeed need a significant IL stint, his absence could convince the Angels front office to explore selling veterans at the trade deadline.
Angels Acquire Anthony Bemboom
The Angels announced that they’ve acquired catcher Anthony Bemboom from the Rays for cash considerations.
This is the second transaction of the day involving Bemboom, whom the Rays designated for assignment in the afternoon. The 29-year-old had been on the 60-day injured list for two-plus months before then because of a knee issue, but his return led to his departure from Tampa Bay.
Bemboom is now reuniting with the Angels, who spent a 22nd-round pick on him in the 2012 draft. He was with the club until Colorado grabbed him in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft, though Bemboom never reached the majors in two seasons in the Rockies organization. He debuted in MLB earlier this year with the Rays, who signed him to a minor league deal in the offseason, logging just five plate appearances prior to his injury. Over a far larger sample size of 636 PA at the minors’ highest level, Bemboom has slashed .250/.341/.381 with 11 home runs.
The Angels’ acquisition of Bemboom comes on the verge of surgery for starting catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who will undergo a procedure to repair a nasal fracture Tuesday. Lucroy last played June 7, when he was involved in a gruesome collision at home plate with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick, and will miss at least three more weeks. The Angels have turned to Dustin Garneau and Kevan Smith in his absence. Bemboom will provide further insurance as Lucroy recovers.
Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA
Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332
- Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).
Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350
- Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343
- The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.
Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353
- There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337
- Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).
Jonathan Lucroy To Undergo Surgery, Expected To Miss Three Weeks
Angels catcher Jonathan Lucroy will undergo a brief procedure on Tuesday to mend his nasal fracture, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com adds on Twitter that manager Brad Ausmus expects his catcher to miss about three weeks due to the operation.
Lucroy bore the brunt of a violent collision at home plate with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick last week, suffering a concussion and a broken nose as a result. He’s currently on the 7-day injured list as a result of the concussion. As Hoornstra notes, Lucroy will be on the shelf for a few days following the procedure to repair his nose, but plans to resume baseball activities within the week following the surgery.
Assuming everything goes according to plan, that timetable would put the 33-year-old on track to suit up for the Angels sometime in early August. To be sure, the club will want to make sure that there are no lingering effects that could be aggravated by Lucroy’s return to the field, especially at such a rigorous position where concussions are not uncommon.
Lucroy’s Los Angeles tenure has been a frustrating one, with unexceptional performance being interrupted by a gruesome injury. Nonetheless, a late season return could be pivotal for a team clinging desperately to postseason aspirations; at 47-46, the Halos will have to overcome several teams, including division rivals in Texas and Oakland if they are to make their way into a Wild Card spot.