Market Rumblings: Cutch, Nats, Melancon, Giants, Martinez, Bruce, Rangers, Chapman, Holland
While much of the trade chatter on Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen has focused on the Nationals, the Dodgers are also a plausible suitor, per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. There’s interest from Los Angeles in the 30-year-old, not least of which because he’s controllable at a fairly reasonable salary and doesn’t come with a lengthy commitment.
- Despite the ongoing interest in McCutchen, the Nationals are also looking into other outfielders, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. Among the free agent center fielders who have at least come up internally are Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez and former Nats shortstop Ian Desmond. The organization has also given some thought to Adam Eaton of the White Sox. That’s doubly interesting given that the Nats are reportedly still engaged on star Chicago southpaw Chris Sale.
- While the Nationals are trying to work out arrangements to land McCutchen (or an alternative) and/or Sale, they remain in on closer Mark Melancon, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). Melancon’s market is moving along well, says Crasnick, with expectations that he could land as much as $60MM over a four-year term. While Washington is clearly intrigued at a reunion, Crasnick adds that the Giants remain engaged and may even be better-situated for a strike on Melancon given that the Nats’ attention may lie elsewhere.
- That being said, the Giants are also looking to add a power bat in the outfield, and they have continued to consider Tigers slugger J.D. Martinez, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). That interest has been known for some time, but it seems there’s still life to the possibility. Notably, GM Bobby Evans has signaled that San Francisco does not wish to take on a long-term obligation in the outfield, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The same rationale that makes Martinez appealing — his one year of team control — could also make Mets outfielder Jay Bruce a possibility, Schulman notes.
- Another team in the outfield market is the Rangers, who hope to add a center fielder as well as another starter. GM Jon Daniels says that he’s currently paying more attention to the trade market than to free agency, as T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Texas is drawing hits on relief pitching, Daniels added.
- The Yankees have their eye on four possibilities for a big bat, per Heyman (via Twitter): Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Holliday, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Beltran. Most of those free agents have been connected to New York in some form already, though Holliday has not been mentioned with much specificity. Of note, beyond the interest of the Yankees, is that Holliday is apparently looking for a two-year deal, while Beltran appears to be available for a single-season commitment.
- High-octane lefty Aroldis Chapman remains in excellent position to land a big new deal, but Heyman tweets that he’s not necessarily hunting for a nine-figure contract. While the bargaining could presumably still push the price tag toward (if not past) the $100MM mark, that’s not a “demand” of the free agent, per the report.
- As the Pirates weigh a number of pursuits, the organization remains engaged with lefty Derek Holland, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports on Twitter. Bucs GM Neal Huntington is set to meet with Holland’s reps at the Winter Meetings early next week.
Heyman’s Latest: Sale, Encarnacion, Astros, Martinez, Mets, Yankees, CarGo
The Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Braves are at the forefront of the Chris Sale market, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman in his latest notes column. However, an exec with one of those clubs that spoke to Heyman still said he’s not sure that Sale is moved at all due to the exorbitant nature of the White Sox‘ asking price. The Nationals, for instance, have been asked for Trea Turner as part of the package but have balked at the idea, Heyman notes, with one Washington source calling the budding star “too valuable” to part with. It’s similarly difficult to envision a player like Alex Bregman or Dansby Swanson being moved for Sale as well. The White Sox do like Dodgers prospect Cody Bellinger, writes Heyman, but L.A. has yet to show a significant inclination to pursue Sale, he adds. (And, from my vantage point, the Dodgers would need to add quite a bit more than Bellinger to a Sale package anyhow.)
A few more highlights…
- The Yankees, Astros and Blue Jays all remain in the mix for Edwin Encarnacion, but Heyman joins others in writing that Twitter reports of a deal between Houston and Encarnacion were premature. The Astros are being aggressive on Encarnacion, according to Heyman, though agent Paul Kinzer told him that there are “a couple” of other teams in the mix beyond this group as well. Perhaps signaling their desire to add an impact bat, the Astros made a legitimate run at Yoenis Cespedes both this offseason and last winter, Heyman adds, noting that last winter’s pursuit flew largely under the radar.
- One general manager who has spoken to the Tigers about a J.D. Martinez trade tells Heyman that he believes Martinez is “all but certain” to be traded. Detroit, Heyman points out, is now the somewhat surprising MLB payroll leader with several Dodgers hitting free agency and with the Yankees trading Brian McCann.
- The Mets would like to add not one but two left-handed relievers to their bullpen, Heyman writes. They’re interested in a reunion with southpaw Jerry Blevins, who spent the past two seasons in the organization, but other reports have indicated that Blevins is likely to receive a multi-year deal that will exceed the Mets’ comfort zone. The Mets might also consider adding catching help, though that’s not characterized as a priority in this report, which also notes that the team considers Michael Conforto to be close to untouchable in trade talks.
- The Yankees have spoken to other teams about third baseman Chase Headley and outfielder Brett Gardner but received minimal interest in that pair. Headley has $26MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal and quietly rebounded from a disastrous start to post a solid overall season in the Bronx last year, while Gardner is owed a similar $25MM through 2018 and also has a club option for the 2019 season on his deal. Gardner would seem to have more trade value to me, and perhaps teams would show more interest later in the winter once some of the free-agent options in the outfield have come off the board.
- There’s been no formal extension offer made by the Rockies to Carlos Gonzalez, who said last week that the team has expressed interest in an extension. According to Heyman, that could be due to the fact that initial suggestions were deemed “too low” by Gonzalez’s camp to even merit an official offer. CarGo is just one year away from free agency and could be an appealing trade piece for the Rox this summer if the team doesn’t contend in 2017.
Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Van Slyke, Hatcher
6:14pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Hatcher receives a $1.25MM salary next season (Twitter link).
4:25pm: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Van Slyke and the Dodgers agreed to a $1.325MM salary for 2017.
4:14pm: The Dodgers announced today that they’ve signed outfielder Scott Van Slyke and right-hander Chris Hatcher to one-year deals, thus avoiding arbitration with both players. Van Slyke is represented by agent James Kuzmich, while Hatcher is a client of Turner Gary Sports.
Van Slyke, 30, was limited to 52 games this past season due to back and wrist injuries. When healthy, he batted a disappointing .225/.292/.314 in 113 plate appearances. Van Slyke, however, has a nice track record as a complementary outfielder, having slashed .261/.349/.455 with 24 homers in 651 plate appearances from 2013-15. Most of the damage he’s done in his career has come against left-handed pitching, as he holds a career .845 OPS against southpaws as compared to a .678 OPS against right-handed pitching. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Van Slyke for a $1.3MM salary in 2017.
Hatcher, 32 in January, was limited to 40 2/3 innings by an oblique injury in 2016 but struggled to a 5.53 ERA even when healthy enough to take the field. Hatcher’s velocity remained strong, though, as his fastball averaged just under 96 mph. He also averaged 9.5 K/9 with a solid 44.3 percent ground-ball rate. His walk rate spiked from 3.0 BB/9 in 2015 to 4.6 BB/9 in 2016, however, and he was exceptionally homer-prone (1.8 HR/9, 18.2 percent HR/FB ratio). In 95 innings from 2014-15, Hatcher logged a 3.51 ERA and posted a 105-to-25 K/BB ratio. Swartz projected him at $1.4MM.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/1/2016
Here are some recent minor moves from around the league:
- The Orioles announced the signing of outfielder Logan Schafer to a minor-league deal. The six-year MLB veteran saw minimal time last year with the Twins. At Triple-A, he batted .272/.342/.382 with six homers and six stolen bases over 317 trips to the plate.
- The Athletics have added two more players on minors deals, each of which includes a spring camp invite, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee (via Twitter). Catcher Ryan Lavarnway and first baseman Chris Parmelee will join the Oakland organization. Lavarnway, a former top prospect, continues to bounce around. He hit .266/.351/.384 last year with at the highest level of the minors. The 28-year-old Parmelee has seen MLB action in each of the last six seasons, slashing .248/.313/.405. At Triple-A last year in the Yankees organization, he put up a .248/.335/.449 batting line.
- Outfielder Henry Ramos is headed to the Dodgers on a minor-league pact, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Ramos had spent his entire career in the Red Sox farm system, reaching its highest level last year. Over his 398 plate appearances in the upper minors in 2016, he slashed .263/.306/.402 with eight home runs.
- The White Sox have added catcher Roberto Pena on a minors deal, Cotillo also tweets. The 24-year-old has long been an Astros’ farmhand since being selected in the seventh round of the 2010 draft out of Puerto Rico. In the upper minors a season ago, he put up a .235/.273/.376 slash.
- Two pitchers are headed to the Pirates on minor-league contracts, per a club announcement. The Bucs will give a look to lefty Dan Runzler, who last appeared in the bigs in 2012 and put up a 5.82 ERA in 21 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year with the Twins. Also joining the Pittsburgh organization is righty Jason Stoffel, a 28-year-old who has spent plenty of time in the upper minors in recent years but hasn’t cracked the bigs. He recorded an impressive 2.44 ERA with 11.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 59 frames in 2016 in the Orioles organization, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A.
- Though we missed it at the time, it’s worth noting that the Angels reached agreement on a minor-league contract with righty Justin Miller, as Matt Eddy of Baseball America reported. The 29-year-old has thrown 88 1/3 innings over the past three seasons, with a 4.99 ERA that doesn’t inspire much hope. But he turned in a promising 2015 campaign and still managed 9.5 K/9 in his forty appearances last year with the Rockies.
Market Notes: CBA, Astros, Encarnacion, Napoli, Cubs-Sox, Puig, A’s, Greinke, Bucs
With the CBA now in place, teams and players that were waiting for clarity can move toward new agreements. While plenty of organizations have gone right ahead with their plans, others seemingly have waited. That includes the Yankees (per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, on Twitter), Nationals (per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, on Twitter), and perhaps also the Red Sox (via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, in a tweet). Whether we’re in for a rush of moves remains to be seen, but the stage is set.
Here’s all the latest chatter on the market:
- The Astros continue to strive to add another bat, with the team confident it will land either Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Still, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and a “couple others” remain involved on Encarnacion, Heyman tweets. All three of those teams, along with the Red Sox, are in on Beltran, Nightengale adds on Twitter.
- Several former employers of first bagger Mike Napoli have interest in a reunion, per Heyman. The Red Sox, Indians, and Rangers are perhaps the three teams most heavily invested in his market. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Astros appear to be involved at the periphery at present.
- There have been some rumblings of late suggesting that the Cubs and White Sox likely won’t do business with one another this winter, at least not on any significant deals, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times rounds up the latest. Ultimately, it seems, there’s not much new to chew on here: both teams say they’re open working with one another, even if they acknowledge what GM Jed Hoyer suggests is an unsurprising reality that the clubs are unlikely to to match up on an impactful swap given their market competition.
- The Dodgers are still open to considering trades involving outfielder Yasiel Puig, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times recently noted on Twitter. Meanwhile, the Athletics continue to chase a center fielder after signing Matt Joyce, per GM David Forst (via MLB.com’s Jane Lee, on Twitter). It seems that Oakland is considering options via trade and free agency to fill the void up the middle.
- There’s “minimal trade interest” at present in Diamondbacks righty Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. His massive contract remains an obvious impediment, though rival execs tells Rosenthal that they don’t believe Arizona can afford to carry that huge commitment. It’s certainly a notable dilemma for the team.
- The Pirates are looking into the trade market for relief help, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter). It’s possible that Pittsburgh could consider moving Tony Watson, who is in his final season of team control and comes with a projected $5.9MM salary. The team does have two other solid pen lefties; while Watson currently profiles as the closer, moreover, there are a variety of potential alternatives on the open market.
Latest On Market For Rich Hill
There are four teams heavily pursuing free-agent lefty Rich Hill, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros are all said to be chasing down a pitcher who is arguably the best available on this year’s market. Also joining pursuit are the Red Sox and Orioles, per the report, though it seems their interest is less robust.
We’ve heard plenty of chatter about the possibility of the Yankees making a move on Hill, and the Dodgers likewise have long been said to have interest in a reunion. The AL West-rival Rangers and Astros, though, have not been tied as closely — in part, perhaps, since both have already signed starters — though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed both as plausible suitors in his top-fifty free agent list. Meanwhile, the two AL East teams mentioned seemingly have fully stocked rotations, though surely both could stand to upgrade in the right situation.
Hill is coming off of an outstanding age-36 season. While he was limited to 110 1/3 innings, owing to a blister, the veteran southpaw recorded a sensational 2.12 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While there was justifiable skepticism last winter, following Hill’s four excellent, late-season starts in the prior campaign, he now seems worth pursuing as a possible top-of-the-rotation arm.
There’s plenty of reason to tamper contract expectations, of course. Even if one accepts that Hill can continue to mow down opposing hitters, he’s not young and comes with a long history of injuries. And it’s certainly possible that he’s in line for some regression in the earned-run department after limiting opposing hitters to just 0.33 home runs per nine innings a season ago.
Though he essentially uses just two pitches, Hill has baffled the opposition with a heater that barely averages 90 mph and a breaking ball that he can manipulate at will. And the recent results aren’t just a batted-ball-fortune fluke; he was credited with a 2.39 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA in 2016. With no other true impact starters available on the open market, and despite the obvious questions, MLBTR predicts that he’ll command a $50MM guarantee over three seasons.
Latest On Dodgers’ Debt Situation
The Dodgers are engaged in an ongoing process with Major League Baseball regarding the team’s compliance with the league’s debt-service rule, according to reports from Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla. The organization is said to be carrying hundreds of millions in debt as it nears the conclusion of a five-year waiver from those debt requirements, which went into effect when the current ownership group purchased the club.
Baseball teams are subject to a rule that “limits debt to no more than 12 times annual revenue, minus expenses,” writes Shaikin. In the case of the Dodgers, the large amount of debt is offset by a massive television rights agreement – reportedly worth $8.35B over 25 years – along with the ticket sales from league-best attendance (among other sources of revenue). Of course, the club has also committed more in payroll ($1.181B, including $112MM in luxury-tax payments) since the sale than any other organization.
While the Los Angeles Times report suggests that there is a league mandate for the Dodgers to reduce their debt ratio, that’s not the team’s interpretation. “There is no mandate,” president/CEO Stan Kasten tells Padilla. “There is no problem with our debt and we continue to work on the same program we have been working on from the day we walked in here in 2012.”
More broadly, Kasten emphasized, “business for the Dodgers is very strong and very healthy.” While the team has focused more on obtaining and developing young talent than on continuing to take on huge salary commitments, top organizational figures say that’s all part of the original plan rather than a reflection of some mounting debt problem.
From the league’s perspective, it seems, Los Angeles remains on track to comply with all applicable standards. Teams in violation of the debt-service rule can be subject to discipline, with a variety of measures at the disposal of commissioner Rob Manfred, which can even include the requirement of approval of expenditures or suspensions to ownership and/or team executives. But Manfred suggests that he does not see any likelihood of formal action being taken by the league – or even any significant change in operating philosophy.
“I think the Dodgers will be in a position that they can comply with our expectations in terms of the debt service rule, without any dramatic alteration in the kind of product they have been putting on the field,” he told Shaikin. Manfred added that “the Dodgers have always had a plan that would give them financial stability over the long haul.”
The commissioner also made clear that the organization would not be forced to trim payroll to ease its debt burden, as Padilla reports. Under the league rule on debt servicing, he said, “non-compliant clubs are asked to submit a plan demonstrating a path to compliance,” explaining that “clubs are evaluated on an ongoing basis relative to that plan.” Manfred further emphasized that “there are various ways to achieve compliance and there is no mandate to cut payroll.”
All told, it does not appear as if there is any particular reason to believe that the Dodgers’ immediate offseason decisions will be impacted by the debt issue – at least, that is, beyond the prior planning that has already been undertaken. But it remains to be seen just how much the organization will be willing to spend this winter with several holes to fill and notable free agents including closer Kenley Jansen, third baseman Justin Turner, lefty Rich Hill, and second baseman Chase Utley.
Los Angeles does have a rather substantial slate of current payroll commitments, including several to players who are no longer on the 40-man roster. The team concluded 2016 with a payroll in the $258MM neighborhood and already has upward of $193MM in commitments for next year, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. They’re on track to exceed the luxury-tax threshold again in 2017, then, even though it could increase from $189MM in the current CBA to around $200MM in the next agreement. There’s also already over $130MM committed to 2018 payroll, though the standing obligations draw down rather rapidly from that point forward.
Despite their debt situation, the Dodgers have made many sizable commitments on the international market and have not been dissuaded from some notable, mid-range free agent signings. We’ll soon learn how much appetite the organization has for similar, or even larger, agreements in advance of the 2017 season. The Dodgers are reportedly interested in pursuing reunions with all of their free agents, and have also been tied to prominent open-market players such as closer Aroldis Chapman. The trade market may provide an alternative; Los Angeles has recently expressed interest in reasonably priced standouts like J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier and Logan Forsythe — all of whom are under contract for two or fewer years — though acquiring any of them would presumably weaken their farm system.
A prior version of this post mistakenly suggested that the Dodgers would be forced to cut payroll in order to comply with MLB’s debt-service rule.
Quick Hits: Chapman, Encarnacion, Yankees, CBA, D’Backs, Dodgers
Some items from around baseball as we head into a new week…
- The Yankees are widely considered the favorites to sign Aroldis Chapman, though not if the closer’s market reaches five years and $100MM, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. One would think the dollar figure rather than the contract length would be the sticking point for the Yankees, as Chapman (who turns 29 in February) has long been expected to land at least a five-year deal this winter. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Chapman to land five years and $90MM, and would still set a new record high for a reliever contract even if it falls short of nine figures. (Dierkes also has Chapman signing with the Yankees.)
- Also from King, the Yankees similarly aren’t interested in a five-year deal with Edwin Encarnacion. New York has checked in with Encarnacion but also with Carlos Beltran, who would come at a much lower price in both years and dollars. Several other first base/DH types with lower price tags than Encarnacion have also been speculatively linked to the Yankees as well this offseason. It’s unclear whether any team would be willing to guarantee five years to Encarnacion, who is entering his age-34 season.
- If the new collective bargaining agreement expands rosters to 26 players, several general managers speculated to Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com that teams could often use that extra man for spot starts. While not an official sixth starter, teams could call up a spot starter to give extra rest to the rotation or perhaps just one veteran starter in particular. Another GM speculates that teams could use that extra roster spot to develop an Andrew Miller-esque reliever who can pitch multiple innings.
- The bulk of Gammons’ latest column examines the challenges Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen faces with his new team. One of those issues looks to be improving relations between management and the clubhouse — “players who were Diamondbacks may be unfair when they tell people that the D’Backs are the team that hates players, but it’s the reputation,” Gammons writes.
- Rookies played a big role in the Dodgers‘ NL West title, particularly due to the number of injuries suffered by the team. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman tells Baseball America’s Bill Plunkett that his club had a “number of fingerprints” on its success and credits manager Dave Roberts with his deft handling of these young and mostly inexperienced players. “A great byproduct of the change and shift that we saw this year on the major league side with (Roberts) and his coaches was to be able to provide that soft landing spot, that environment where guys can come up and thrive and not be afraid to compete, to be put in positions to be able to succeed,” Friedman said. According to Plunkett, rookie players accounted for 21.3% of Dodgers plate appearances and 29.6% of the team’s innings in 2016.
5 Ways The Dodgers Can Save Money & Stay Competitive In 2017
With a debt reportedly in the hundreds of millions, the Dodgers are trying to cut costs in order to stay in compliance with MLB’s debt service rule, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported earlier today. Obviously a debt of that size means that cutting player payroll is only one step the Dodgers will need to take to become more financially stable, yet given how the Dodgers ended last season paying over $291MM to its 40-man roster and have just under $172MM committed to 15 players (only 11 of whom are still in the organization) in 2017, payroll seems like a natural starting point.
The catch, of course, is that the Dodgers wholly plan on contending in 2017, so any type of a fire sale is out of the question. (So no, there’s no chance of your favorite team trading for Clayton Kershaw.) In fact, the phrase “too big to fail” comes to mind — the Dodgers have invested so much in their on-field product that they essentially can’t afford to fall out of contention, as drops in attendance or TV ratings would make their financial situation even more severe.
While Dodgers fans may be automatically fearing a return to the Frank McCourt era, there are plenty of reasons not to worry. Andrew Friedman’s front office has plenty of ways to save money while still reloading the roster for another run at the postseason, some of which they’re already exploring. For example…
1. Backloaded contracts for beyond 2018. Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Yaisel Sierra are the only Dodgers under contract past the 2018 season, and Kershaw can exercise an opt-out clause following the 2018 World Series. Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and several other important players will be arbitration-eligible by that point and making well beyond their current minimum salaries, yet L.A. will have plenty of payroll breathing space in just two years’ time. Even by next winter, they’ll have over $46MM worth of breathing space when Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero come off the books and Andre Ethier‘s club option is presumably declined.
If the Dodgers wanted to land a big free agent this winter or re-sign at least one of Kenley Jansen or Justin Turner, therefore, the team could manage it in the form of a backloaded contract. Deferred money could also be an option; the Dodgers already used this tactic last winter with Scott Kazmir‘s contract, as the lefty will be receiving deferred payments through 2021 even though his deal only runs through the 2018 season.
2. Replace Jansen and/or Turner internally, or with cheaper external options. The Dodgers’ bullpen finished at or near the top of the league in many important categories in 2016, and while Jansen and fellow free agents Joe Blanton and J.P. Howell were big reasons behind the pen’s success, there’s still lots of talent on hand. Pedro Baez, Adam Liberatore, Luis Avilan, Josh Fields, Grant Dayton, Josh Ravin and the newly-acquired Vidal Nuno all form a solid relief core, and that’s not counting further support in the form of starters who might be available for reliever roles. The Dodgers could supplement this group with a free agent with closing experience (i.e. Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler) with a much lower price tag than Jansen.
The third base picture is less clear if Turner leaves. Supersub Enrique Hernandez could take over in at least a platoon role, as Hernandez has hit very well against lefties in his career and the Dodgers could use another solid right-handed bat to balance their lineup. Looking at free agents, Luis Valbuena would command a solid but not unreasonable multi-year commitment, while Trevor Plouffe or Stephen Drew would be more inexpensive options.
Probably the best common ground for the Dodgers would be to use one of these scenarios to address one departure and then re-sign the other of Jansen or Turner. Letting both players leave would be a blow, though L.A. could collect the first-round draft picks attached to Jansen and Turner via the qualifying offer. With the farm system bolstered, that could free the Dodgers to…
3. Trade prospects for stars on inexpensive contracts. Thanks to their big spending and deep minor league system, the Dodgers are rumored to be involved pretty much every time a rebuilding team floats a notable player in trade talks. Both at the deadline and during the early stages of this offseason, the Dodgers have reportedly shown interest in players ranging from top-of-the-rotation aces (i.e. Chris Sale, Chris Archer) to second basemen like Brian Dozier or Logan Forsythe. These four not only bring value on their field, they also offer multiple seasons of cost-effectiveness thanks to team-friendly contracts.
It would take a lot to pry any of these players away from their current teams, though the Dodgers have the pieces to make a deal happen if they choose this direction. While Friedman has moved his share of notable prospects, he has also wisely held onto such blue-chippers as Seager or Julio Urias. Would he be similarly loath to part with the likes of Jose De Leon, Cody Bellinger or Alex Verdugo, especially since there’s no better way to keep payroll costs down than to replenish the roster with cheap young talent?
4. Swap one big contract for another that is a better fit. One of the main payroll issues facing the Dodgers is the substantial amount of money committed to players whose role on the 2017 team seems rather tenuous. With Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir and Urias locking up the top four rotation spots, that leaves Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu (owed a combined $38.6MM through 2018) battling for the fifth starter’s role, and that’s assuming either can stay healthy. Andre Ethier missed almost all of 2016 due to a broken leg, and while Yasiel Puig seemed to regain his standing within the organization after hitting well in September, it remains to be seen if the Dodgers necessarily still see him as a long-term building block.
Given how injuries ravaged the Dodgers’ rotation last year, it seems odd to suggest that they should consider dealing a starter, yet I’d think they would be quite open to moving McCarthy or Ryu if a decent offer arose. Teams would normally stay away from starters with such checkered injury histories, though there might be a slight opportunity for L.A. this winter given the very thin free agent pitching market. The Dodgers could explore trading McCarthy, Ryu or possibly even Kazmir for another player making a significant salary over the next one or two years, yet who is a better fit for their needs at second base, third base (if Turner leaves) or in the outfield.
Ethier and Puig are the most experienced names amidst the many corner outfielders on the Dodgers roster, a list that includes Andrew Toles, Trayce Thompson, Scott Van Slyke, Rob Segedin and even part-time infielders like Hernandez, Darin Ruf or Micah Johnson. L.A. could continue to see what it has with its younger outfielders, or cut through the platoon-mix uncertainty by acquiring a clear-cut everyday corner outfielder. The Dodgers already dealt from this surplus when Howie Kendrick was sent to the Phillies two weeks ago.
Since the Dodgers can and will be spending significant money regardless of their debt reduction actions, they might as well allocate those funds towards players who can more clearly help the 2017 roster. They have the flexibility to mix and match a package of veterans, part-timers and prospects to make a deal happen — say, offering Puig, McCarthy and a good prospect for an everyday second baseman.
5. Keep doing what they’re doing. As noted in Shaikin’s piece, both the Dodgers and Commissioner Rob Manfred are confident that the team will be able to avoid any notable sanctions under the debt service rule, and obviously the Dodgers didn’t just become aware of their debt overnight.
It could be argued that the Dodgers have been addressing their debt issues more or less since Friedman was hired in October 2014. Team officials including Friedman himself, CFO Tucker Kain (as quoted by Shaikin) and team president Stan Kasten have often said in recent years that the team’s long-term plan was to revamp the farm system and international pipeline to such an extent that the Dodgers would no longer require payrolls in the $300MM range.
To that end, I’m guessing that Friedman and company have already explored the first four steps on my list, as the Dodgers work towards their three-pronged goal of winning a World Series in 2017, preparing themselves to contend every year in the future and getting payroll under control. Considering that the Dodgers have continued to win NL West titles in the two years under Friedman’s leadership (including overcoming a ton of injuries in 2016), this slightly reined-in spending hasn’t damaged the product on the field.
Quick Hits: Cespedes, Mariners, T. Walker, International Draft
With the Dodgers in payroll-trimming mode, they’re probably not legitimate threats to sign free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, observes FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who lists the Giants and Nationals as likelier landing spots (Twitter link). The Giants are known to be in the market for an outfielder, having discussed J.D. Martinez with the Tigers, and the Nats tried to sign Cespedes last offseason before he re-upped with the Mets. Executives around the majors expect big moves from Washington this winter, and signing Cespedes – MLBTR’s top-ranked free agent – would clearly qualify as a significant splash.
Elsewhere around the majors…
- Having acquired shortstop Jean Segura and outfielder Mitch Haniger from the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto is content with his team’s group of position players, he told MLB Network Radio on Sunday (Twitter links). Dipoto had to give up right-hander Taijuan Walker in the deal, though, so he’s now looking to pick up a replacement. “We would like to find one more starting pitcher,” said Dipoto. Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton are shoo-ins for jobs next year, meaning the addition of another starter could push Nate Karns or Ariel Miranda out of the rotation.
- Walker’s numbers over 134 1/3 innings in 2016 were respectable (4.22 ERA, 7.97 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9), but the highly talented 24-year-old hasn’t yet emerged as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Mariners pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. expects that to change. “There’s so much upside in this guy,” Stottlemyre told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. “I know a lot of people have waited for him to kind of come around and put things together. I think he was starting to do that this last month.” After a disastrous Sept. 3 start in which he allowed five earned runs and recorded only two outs, Walker – with Stottlemyre’s help – made changes to his delivery. He then logged five more September starts and recorded a 2.93 ERA with 27 strikeouts against 13 walks in 30 2/3 innings. “When he can find himself, he’s got a chance to be a beast,” Stottlemyre said. “Until then, like all young players, he’s going to have some ups and downs. But I’m convinced he’s headed in the right direction and he can move forward now with his game plan and his approach.”
- The next collective bargaining agreement could feature an international draft, but significantly raising bonus pool allotments and giving every team the same spending limit would make more sense, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. If that were to happen, all 30 clubs would be on the same financial footing and the prospects would be able to negotiate freely with as many teams as they want. Additionally, Badler argues that his plan would make CBA negotiations easier because it would give the union one fewer gripe and take away the need for the owners to make a major concession elsewhere.