2006 Draft Throwdown
There is little that is more dismaying than looking back at old draft lists, with the benefit of hindsight, and seeing which players your favorite team missed out on while settling for players who either failed to make much of an impact, or who never even reached the major leagues. Think Reggie Jackson and Steve Chilcott, Robin Yount and David Clyde, Dwight Gooden and Bryan Oelkers. Often, this is driven less by player talent, and more by positional need.
But even more fascinating is to look at some recent draft picks and some of their immediate counterparts, to see how teams fared picking players, one over another, who played the same position. In other words, straight-up scouting choices led to these decisions. Let's take a look at how those worked out in 2006.
- LHP Andrew Miller (Tigers) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): This one is more complicated than it might seem at first. Clearly, Miller, drafted sixth overall, has not been nearly as effective as Kershaw, drafted seventh overall. Miller has a 5.50 ERA in 261 2/3 major league innings, and is currently having trouble throwing strikes in the minor leagues, with an astonishing 30 walks in 28 innings. Kershaw has a 3.28 ERA in 342 major league innings, and shows signs of being a good deal better than that moving forward. But Miller isn't with the Tigers; Detroit dealt him in the move that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. Still, advantage has to go to Kershaw on this one, and the Dodgers as well.
- RHP Tim Lincecum (Giants) vs. Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks): Is this one about to turn? Obviously, as of this date, Lincecum, drafted tenth, has worked out as well as one could hope any draft pick could, while Scherzer, drafted eleventh, is still a work-in-progress who has already been traded once. But Lincecum has had uncharacteristic struggles with his control lately, even though his season ERA (3.14) and strikeout rate (10.4/9 innings) are not far off of his career marks. And Scherzer is coming off of a 14-strikeout performance, though four walks meant that he did so in just 5 2/3 innings. For now, though, a big edge to Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young Award winner.
- OF Tyler Colvin (Cubs) vs. Travis Snider (Blue Jays): Based on 2010 season line alone, this battle of the lefty-hitting outfielders would have to go to Colvin, drafted thirteenth, over Snider, drafted fourteenth. After all, Colvin has an OPS of .991 in 83 plate appearances this season, while Snider's stands at .806. But overall, it seems clear that the Blue Jays did better here. Snider came out of high school, while Colvin was a collegiate player. Yet Snider posted significantly better offensive numbers than Colvin as each player climbed their respective system ladders- a .916 to .785 edge in minor league OPS. Snider was holding down a regular job at age 22 before he hit the DL, while Colvin is struggling for a regular spot as his 25th birthday approaches. This one is debatable, but the smart money gives Toronto and Snider the edge.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Manny Ramirez
It's never just about the numbers with Manny Ramirez. Whether it's dreadlocks, PED suspensions or oddly-timed high fives, the Dodgers' left fielder stands out. When Manny becomes a free agent after the season, numbers will only tell part of his story, but agent Scott Boras is probably hoping for a little more production in the season's final four months.
It's not that Manny has played poorly. His .289/.395/.443 line is considerably better than average, though his defense has been underwhelming once again. This year has fallen short of the monster seasons we're used to seeing from Manny, but that .395 on base percentage would be 18th-best in the majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Despite his injury history, Nick Johnson (who doesn't have Manny's power) turned a high OBP into a 5.75MM guarantee last winter.
That's a lot less than the $20MM Manny will pocket this season, but let's face it: 38-year-olds who don't play defense aren't going to command $20MM contracts in this market. Boras can point to Manny's drawing power (he could reach 600 homers next year), his on-base skills and his power and that would presumably be enough to develop interest in Ramirez.
If it were as simple as comparing Manny to other DH-types like Johnson, Hideki Matsui and Vladimir Guerrero, Ramirez would appear to be in line for a modest one-year deal, perhaps in the $7-8MM range. But if we've learned anything about Manny, it's that he's tough to predict. Does he still want to play five more years? Does he want to return to Cleveland? Is this really his last season in a Dodgers uniform? Until those questions are answered, predicting the market for Manny isn't much easier than predicting his next quirky move.
Dodgers Designate Nick Green For Assignment
Nick Green has been designated for assignment by the Dodgers, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.
The Dodgers signed Green to a minor league deal in January, hoping he could back up Rafael Furcal at shortstop. However, even when Furcal was on the disabled list, Green received limited playing time. The success of Jamey Carroll (.380 OBP) and Furcal's return to the lineup made the ex-Red Sox expendable.
In nine plate appearances for Los Angeles, Green singled once and was hit by a pitch. The 31-year-old hasn't fared much better in the minors, hitting .219/.242/.438 in 67 Triple A plate appearances.
Teams That Could Take On Payroll This Summer
The ability to absorb a few million dollars at the trade deadline is a pretty powerful bargaining chip. Teams never mind shedding salary, but you won't find many clubs willing to take it on. Some teams always have the financial might to absorb a contract or two; others can take on payroll under the right circumstances and some are sitting tight no matter what.
To predict which teams will be able to take on payroll this trade deadline, MLBTR looked to recent history and the latest rumors. Here are the results:
- Yankees – It's hard to imagine a team with an Opening Day payroll of $213MM letting a few more million stand between them and a deal this summer.
- Cubs – Same goes for the Cubs, who opened the season with a $144MM payroll. It's the team's first summer under new ownership.
- Red Sox – Not only are they big spenders ($168MM Opening Day payroll), they are aggressive at the deadline. Last year, the club added Victor Martinez, Alex Gonzalez and Casey Kotchman.
- Nationals – The Nats could have the financial might to take on Roy Oswalt's entire contract, if you believe one of the officials ESPN.com's Jayson Stark spoke to. They also have to budget for the bonus their number one pick will demand. We're talking many millions no matter what, but possible selection Bryce Harper could demand an eight-figure deal.
- Dodgers – An official told Stark that he can imagine the Dodgers taking on $5MM or so. GM Ned Colletti said earlier this week that he could add payroll in the right deal, in spite of the McCourt divorce.
- Angels – The Angels have some money, according to Stark's sources.
- Giants – Adding Pat Burrell at the major league minimum wouldn't exactly constitute "buying," but the Giants operate under a relatively big budget.
- Rays – They are expected to lower payroll in 2011, so they don't seem like a logical candidate to add salary, but they have been creative and aggressive at the deadline in recent years, discussing deals for the likes of Jason Bay and Victor Martinez.
- Reds – The Reds have financial flexibility and a willingness to get creative, according to one of Ken Rosenthal's sources.
- Phillies – They're staying in touch with Pedro Martinez, which presumably means they have at least a million or two to work with. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has said he'll be reluctant to give up prospects, but it's not hard to imagine the Phillies taking on payroll.
- Cardinals – The Cardinals were big spenders at last year's deadline, acquiring Mark DeRosa and then Matt Holliday. They may look for starters this year, which could cost them a few million, even though ESPN.com's Buster Olney expects a buyer's market.
- Blue Jays – Team president Paul Beeston is "all about winning" in the words of GM Alex Anthopoulos (via the Toronto Star). It will be a balancing act between short-term needs and long-term goals, but the Jays could spend if they're in contention.
- Some teams that don't appear on this list will likely become spenders this summer, but these are at least some of the clubs that could take on salary in the right deal.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Lee, Braves, Mets, Oswalt
On this date 12 years ago, Diamondbacks manager Buck Showalter ordered closer Gregg Olsen to intentionally walk Barry Bonds with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th. Arizona was leading the Giants 8-6 at the time, and the move not only forced in a run, but also put the winning run in scoring position. The next batter, Brent Mayne, flew out to deep center field to end the inning and give the D'Backs the 8-7 win. It was just the third time in history that a batter was intentionally walked with the bases loaded, though the Rays' Joe Maddon turned the same trick with Josh Hamilton in August 2008.
Coincidentally, Bonds hit his 715th career homer to pass Babe Ruth for sole possession of second place on the all-time list on this same date back in 2006. Anyway, here's a collection of links from around the baseball blogiverse…
- Prospect Insider examines the Cliff Lee trade market.
- Capitol Avenue Club lists six players the Braves could select with their first pick, #35 overall, in next month's draft. Atlanta sent their first round pick, #20 overall, to the Red Sox as compensation for signing Billy Wagner.
- Mets Paradise looks at the internal candidates the Mets could turn to if they need to fill another rotation spot.
- Yankeeist reviews some players the Yankees either let go or passed on last offseason, plus some players they could pursue next winter.
- Dodger Dugout tries to figure out what Ned Colletti might be thinking as the trade deadline slowly approaches.
- Meanwhile, The Baseball Opinion speculates about Roy Oswalt landing with the Dodgers.
- The Bottom Line says that John Lackey's curve has been lacking with the Red Sox.
- River Ave. Blues takes a deeper look at some draft prospects the Yankees have been linked to.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Stark On Oswalt, Braves, Carmona, Yankees
Astros scouts haven't been told to watch specific teams or players, so Roy Oswalt doesn't need to start preparing for life after Houston just yet. ESPN.com's Jayson Stark has the details on Oswalt and more rumblings from around the major leagues:
- Oswalt has told friends he'd love to play in St. Louis and it's believed that he would be interested in joining the Dodgers and Braves.
- We've heard lots about the $29MM remaining on Oswalt's deal, but the Angels have some money, according to an official Stark spoke to. The Nationals may be "the one team that would pay the whole freight on the contract."
- GM Andrew Friedman says he wasn't sure how Rafael Soriano's National League experience would translate to the American League East when the Rays dealt for him last offseason. Needless to say, the Rays have been pleased with Soriano's dominant start to the season.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. tells Stark that other teams offered Jose Contreras "much more money" last winter.
- Braves GM Frank Wren says he's pleased with Eric Hinske's play and notes that teams probably don't pay enough attention to their benches.
- Wren says the Braves would not have interest in adding a starting pitcher. Besides their current rotation, they have the injured Jair Jurrjens and Triple A pitcher Chris Resop.
- GM Jon Daniels says the Rangers saw "a guy with major league ability and pedigree" when they scouted Colby Lewis in Japan last year.
- One scout says the Blue Jays are definitely tracking Fausto Carmona and have watched his last 12 starts.
- The Red Sox have tried trading Mike Lowell unsuccessfully, but they aren't eager to eat the $8MM-plus remaining on his salary.
- Rival clubs say the Yankees haven't decided what their trade deadline needs are, though they're showing some interest in versatile outfield bats.
Dodgers Designate Ramon Ortiz For Assignment
The Dodgers designated Ramon Ortiz for assignment to had to make room for Justin Miller, according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times (via Twitter). The 37-year-old Ortiz appeared in 16 games since the Dodgers signed him in March. He posted a 6.30 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9.
Miller, 32, has yet to appear in the majors this year, but was pitching well at Triple A Albuquerque. He has posted a 2.22 ERA in 18 games with more strikeouts than innings pitched and a respectable rate of 3.0 BB/9.
Olney On Pitching, Benoit, Rangers, Managers
We could very well see a buyer's market for pitching this summer, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Veterans like Ben Sheets, Jake Westbrook, Kevin Millwood and Cliff Lee could join Roy Oswalt on the trade market and give interested teams plenty of choice. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:
- There's not much of a chance that the Dodgers will have the money to pursue Oswalt during the season, though they did call to inquire about him. Lee would be more affordable, but the Mariners would have to make him available and the Dodgers would have to out-bid other suitors.
- The Rays had a pair of scouts tracking the now-dominant Joaquin Benoit last winter, before they signed him. That signing has worked out for the Rays and for Benoit, who has yet to allow an earned run.
- The Rangers are apparently looking for catching help. This comes as no surprise, since we've heard that they have some interest in A.J. Pierzynski and Rod Barajas.
- Third base coaches Chip Hale (Mets) and Mike Quade (Cubs) may have futures as big league managers.
Dodgers Inquire On Roy Oswalt And Cliff Lee
The Dodgers inquired on both Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee and got similar responses from the Astros and Mariners, reports Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Both clubs told the Dodgers that they're not about to deal their respective aces now, but assured GM Ned Colletti that he would hear about it if anything changes.
The Dodgers have a rotation of Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, John Ely, Chad Billingsley and, eventually, Vicente Padilla. That group, plus Carlos Monasterios, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Ortiz, has combined for a 4.20 ERA.
The Dodgers have less payroll flexibility than some teams, but Colletti says the club could take on payroll in the right trade.
"I think it really depends on the deal," Colletti said.
Lee has about $5.7MM remaining on his deal, and Oswalt has about $29MM remaining on his. That could make Lee the more coveted pitcher, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explained earlier tonight. It seems likely that the Astros will listen to offers for Oswalt, but there's no guarantee that the Mariners will shop Lee.
Odds & Ends: Duncan, Dodgers, Marlins, Posey
Links for Sunday night..
- Shelley Duncan is playing well for the Indians since being promoted from Triple-A, writes Dennis Manoloff of The Plain Dealer. The 30-year-old outfielder signed a minor league deal with the Tribe in January.
- The Dodgers have signed righthander Jon Huber to a minor league deal, according to the MLB Transactions page. Huber, who has been assigned to Double-A Chattanooga, last appeared in the majors in 2007 for the Mariners.
- In his latest mailbag, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes that the Marlins are more likely to deal for a relief pitcher than a starter.
- ESPN's Buster Olney (via Twitter) wonders aloud if the Giants might decide to promote Buster Posey after being swept over the weekend by the A's.