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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers

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In today's mailbag, we get into a potential offseason plan for the Cardinals, the impact of managers, third base in Seattle, whether the Yankees should sign Juan Soto, NL playoff rotations, and much more.

Sam asks:

Hi Tim, imagine your phone rings and it's Bill DeWitt Jr. he says, "Tim, I've always liked your work at MLBTR and I've decided that I want to focus all my attention on acquiring as many Arby's as possible. 63 just isn't enough. So I've decided to gift you the St. Louis Cardinals and enough money to maintain the team's current ranking in payroll among the other 29 teams for the next 3 years, effective immediately." How do *you* Tim Dierkes go about fixing the Cardinals?

I generally support efforts to put more Arby's into the world.

The Cardinals' current competitive balance tax payroll is about $216MM, so I'll just stick with that.  That gives me about $92MM to work with.  Key arbitration eligibles include Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andre Pallante.  I'm pretty sure those guys will cost less than $20MM, so if I tender them contracts I'll have about $75MM with which to work.

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The Juan Soto Blockbuster Has Been Even Better Than Expected

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Last winter's Juan Soto trade was the biggest in a long while -- probably the most significant since the previous Soto deal. The Padres were slashing payroll and didn't want to accommodate a salary north of $30MM for his final year of arbitration. Extension talks never got off the ground. The Padres were about to lose four potential starting pitchers to free agency, leaving them with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and a bunch of questions.

San Diego determined to build their return for Soto around MLB-ready starting pitching. They'd not only shed payroll but directly address the biggest need on the roster. It's impossible to trade Juan Soto and not deal a huge hit to the lineup, but the Padres could mitigate some of that loss by bringing back rotation help. Even the San Diego front office probably didn't envision it turning around the staff to this extent.

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Fantasy Baseball: Searching For ROS Diamonds

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Hello friends.

Congratulations to those who have made it this far, but for most the journey will not be finished until the very end. With less than two weeks to go, many races will separated by just a few points, with razor-thin margins on multiple categories allowing for the possibility of many endings. Translation: All's well and good right up until you lose a championship on the last day by one-hundredth of a point in batting average and a single stolen base*.

*Not that this exact situation has ever happened to me. Nope, definitely not ever, and even if it had, I certainly would've gotten over it by now and wouldn't still be bitter.

Every one of these last games can be huge but waiver-wires are thin and most hold little overall value. But category specialists can still be found, as can overlooked players on bad teams, and teams who play their last six games on the moon. With that in mind, let's use the rest-of-season projections from Razzball and see if we can find anything floating around the wire.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosted a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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Nick Martinez’s Third Straight Opt-Out Decision

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In a couple months, Nick Martinez will need to decide whether to test free agency for what would be the fourth straight offseason. More than most free agents, Martinez has seemed to value flexibility. Since he returned to affiliated ball during the 2021-22 offseason after a stint in Japan, the right-hander has signed contracts that allow him to opt out after the first season.

In each case, Martinez has pitched well enough to take that opportunity. He provided the Padres with 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball in 2022. San Diego brought him back in free agency on a new three-year deal after he triggered the out clause. That came with another opt-out possibility, which Martinez took last winter after posting a 3.43 ERA through 110 1/3 frames.

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MLB Mailbag: Trout, Elly De La Cruz, Cubs, Baty

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This week's mailbag addresses a potential Mike Trout trade, valuing Luis Arraez, how the White Sox and Cubs move forward, what an Elly De La Cruz extension might look like, Brett Baty's future, MLB's popularity, and much more.

Fred asks:

With the ever increasing annual salaries MLB stars are receiving, $36M just isn't what it used to be. Assuming he is amenable to a trade, is this the offseason someone (here's looking at you, Dave Dombrowski) takes a chance on Mike Trout's still tremendous upside? His salary could be offset with a bad contract or two (hello Taijuan Walker). He is far less expensive than Juan Soto will be.

$36MM is still a very large salary in MLB, currently tied for seventh all-time.  The actual CBT hit for a new team on Trout's remaining six years and $212.7MM would be similar at $35.45MM.

As an aside, four players signed contracts with $35-36MM AAVs in 2019: Trout, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon.  Five years later, only five players have managed to push into the $40MM realm, moving the needle modestly in this regard.

Trout said before the season that asking for a trade would be the "easy way out," but he also didn't rule out a future change of heart.  The Angels are on pace to lose about 95 games this year, they haven't been to the postseason since 2014, and there's little reason to expect the team to be good next year.  Despite his longstanding loyalty, it's plausible Trout could change his mind at some point.

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Fantasy Baseball: I’ve Got My Eye on You

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Hello friends.

Some of you may still be chasing championships but for many that time has officially come and gone. You know it, your league knows it, all that's left is for the official horn to sound. Before you totally check out, though, and head on over to the land of big hits, exciting actions, and pudding brains, let's pause to appreciate a few excellent performances from some new starting pitchers on the scene.

Trusting starters without an appreciable body of work is one of the most dangerous games in fantasy baseball and can burn you, year in and year out. Sometimes it's believing in a repeat performance that never materializes; sometimes it's the cost of the lost opportunities if you instead keep your heart closed to new blood and assume regression that never comes. Regardless, wouldn't it be nice to not be doomed to a season of haunting questions like, "What if I'd drafted Jack Flaherty instead of Bobby Miller?", and "Maybe Merrill Kelly had to go to South Korea for a reason?"

The world will never know, my friends, but let's still try to get out in front of next year's pain by digging in on some guys who could possibly continue their breakouts into the future.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: TODAY At 3pm Central

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MLBTR's Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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