Nick Martinez’s Third Straight Opt-Out Decision
In a couple months, Nick Martinez will need to decide whether to test free agency for what would be the fourth straight offseason. More than most free agents, Martinez has seemed to value flexibility. Since he returned to affiliated ball during the 2021-22 offseason after a stint in Japan, the right-hander has signed contracts that allow him to opt out after the first season.
In each case, Martinez has pitched well enough to take that opportunity. He provided the Padres with 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball in 2022. San Diego brought him back in free agency on a new three-year deal after he triggered the out clause. That came with another opt-out possibility, which Martinez took last winter after posting a 3.43 ERA through 110 1/3 frames.
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MLB Mailbag: Trout, Elly De La Cruz, Cubs, Baty
This week's mailbag addresses a potential Mike Trout trade, valuing Luis Arraez, how the White Sox and Cubs move forward, what an Elly De La Cruz extension might look like, Brett Baty's future, MLB's popularity, and much more.
Fred asks:
With the ever increasing annual salaries MLB stars are receiving, $36M just isn't what it used to be. Assuming he is amenable to a trade, is this the offseason someone (here's looking at you, Dave Dombrowski) takes a chance on Mike Trout's still tremendous upside? His salary could be offset with a bad contract or two (hello Taijuan Walker). He is far less expensive than Juan Soto will be.
$36MM is still a very large salary in MLB, currently tied for seventh all-time. The actual CBT hit for a new team on Trout's remaining six years and $212.7MM would be similar at $35.45MM.
As an aside, four players signed contracts with $35-36MM AAVs in 2019: Trout, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon. Five years later, only five players have managed to push into the $40MM realm, moving the needle modestly in this regard.
Trout said before the season that asking for a trade would be the "easy way out," but he also didn't rule out a future change of heart. The Angels are on pace to lose about 95 games this year, they haven't been to the postseason since 2014, and there's little reason to expect the team to be good next year. Despite his longstanding loyalty, it's plausible Trout could change his mind at some point.
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Fantasy Baseball: I’ve Got My Eye on You
Hello friends.
Some of you may still be chasing championships but for many that time has officially come and gone. You know it, your league knows it, all that's left is for the official horn to sound. Before you totally check out, though, and head on over to the land of big hits, exciting actions, and pudding brains, let's pause to appreciate a few excellent performances from some new starting pitchers on the scene.
Trusting starters without an appreciable body of work is one of the most dangerous games in fantasy baseball and can burn you, year in and year out. Sometimes it's believing in a repeat performance that never materializes; sometimes it's the cost of the lost opportunities if you instead keep your heart closed to new blood and assume regression that never comes. Regardless, wouldn't it be nice to not be doomed to a season of haunting questions like, "What if I'd drafted Jack Flaherty instead of Bobby Miller?", and "Maybe Merrill Kelly had to go to South Korea for a reason?"
The world will never know, my friends, but let's still try to get out in front of next year's pain by digging in on some guys who could possibly continue their breakouts into the future.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat With Steve Adams: TODAY At 3pm Central
MLBTR's Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat today at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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The Other, Other NL MVP Candidate
For much of the season Shohei Ohtani has been the presumptive National League MVP favorite. Maybe that wasn't the case on Opening Day, but an injury to teammate Mookie Betts early in the summer and an injury to D-backs star infielder Ketel Marte cleared his path. The Ohtani hype is understandable. He's been the National League's best hitter this year by many measures, pacing the Senior Circuit in slugging percentage (.613) and wRC+ (167). Ohtani is fifth in the NL in batting average, fourth in OBP, first in homers and runs scored and second in runs batted in. He's also swiped 46 bags and is a veritable lock to have a 45-45 season, with a chance at becoming MLB's first ever 50-homer, 50-steal player in a season.
Lately, there's been a push by Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor to tighten the race, however. Dating back to July 1, Lindor boasts a sensational .310/.384/.587 slash. He's in the midst of a torrid 15-game hitting streak, which he started just one game after seeing a 12-game hitting streak end. Since the beginning of July, Lindor has more than twice as many multi-hit games (22) than he does hitless games (10). Defensive metrics are a bit split on him this year, with Defensive Runs Saved curiously pegging him as average while Statcast grades him as one of the best defensive players in the entire game. Regardless, Lindor and his .274/.343/.501 batting line (plus 30 homers and 26 steals) lead the NL in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR.
It's not quite fair to the rest of the field to call this a pure two-horse race, though Lindor and Ohtani are certainly the favorites at the moment. Cincinnati standout Elly De La Cruz could thrust himself further into the conversation with a big finish, but many voters will be turned off by the fact that however excellent his season has been -- and it's been excellent -- it's happened as a member of a non-contending Reds club.
There's still one other viable MVP candidate who's not getting the love, and who probably won't get the love -- but absolutely should.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Rangers, Bichette, White Sox, Jordan Walker
Today's mailbag gets into possible offensive additions for the Rangers, Bo Bichette trade scenarios, the White Sox and the record books, requiring starters to go six innings, Jordan Walker's future, and much more.
Kevin asks:
Do you see the Rangers getting a DH/ outfielder that hits for power?
Evan Carter was the Rangers' starting left fielder entering the season, but he struggled to hit and his season ended in May with a back injury. Carter is only 22 years old and went into this season as one of the game's best prospects. He'll have to re-establish himself a bit but I assume the Rangers will generally keep a spot open for him.
Carter could play center field, which was manned by Leody Taveras this year. Taveras fits better in a fourth outfielder role. But making Carter your starting center fielder coming off a serious back injury and without having proven himself as a big league hitter would be a risky plan.
Carter is something of a question mark, but then there's Adolis Garcia. Garcia, 32 in March, is under contract for $9.25MM in 2025 and then potentially under control for 2026 as an arbitration-eligible player. Garcia was an All-Star from 2021-23 before a lost '24. Garcia's 2024 season has gone like this: insane in April, basically unplayable from May through July, and then about league average since August. Do you trade him at a low point? The bounceback potential is lower for a guy who will be turning 32.
Much-hyped rookie Wyatt Langford has logged 25 games at DH plus 729 innings in the outfield (mostly left). 23 in November, Langford has held his own with a league average bat, flashing star potential in June as well as over the last 10 days or so. His likely home is left field.
The '23 Rangers saw big power from Carter (briefly), Corey Seager, Garcia, Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien, and Josh Jung. Seager and Jung have continued to show pretty good power, and Langford certainly could next year. Carter and Garcia are unknowns, with Semien joining them and not necessarily expected to bounce back at age 34. The Rangers also don't get much pop at first base in Nathaniel Lowe.
A center fielder who can hit would fit better than a corner guy, but good luck finding one. Luis Robert should be available, but he's coming off a Garcia-like season himself. Cody Bellinger could fit on the Rangers position-wise, but he's posted a 105 wRC+ this season. Bellinger's contract makes him hard to trade, as he'll make $27.5MM in '25 with a $25MM player option and $5MM buyout for '26 (assuming he doesn't opt out this winter).
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The A’s Position Player Core Is Emerging
The A's have quietly been one of the better teams in the American League for the past two months. As USA Today's Bob Nightengale observed last night (on X), only the Astros have a better record among AL clubs since the start of July. Oakland was above .500 in both July and August; last night's walk-off win over Seattle has pushed them to 31-22 since July began. They've outscored opponents by 37 runs in that time.
Their second-half success doesn't have much impact this year. The A's had a dreadful first half that ensures they're headed to a third straight losing season. They'll probably avoid a third last-place finish in as many years, but they're not likely to finish higher than fourth in the AL West. Even with 90 losses still in play, the past few months offer a glimpse at a better future for A's fans who'll stick with the team in Sacramento and Las Vegas. That's particularly true in the lineup, where a controllable core is beginning to take shape.
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Fantasy Baseball: Smoke Or Fire?
Hello friends.
Labor Day is behind us and the calendar has officially flipped to the last month of everyone's championship runs...hopefully.
For those out of the race, we salute you. But for those that remain, a month of difficult decisions may await you because, unlike the previous five months, we're basically out of road on the whole "will so-and-so turn it around?" portion of the proceedings. The band of players you may be willing to sit in favor of some new hotness will continue to expand, as there's officially no time to wait. No time to wait for lingering injuries to clear up, no time for sluggish stars to get going again, no time to wait for bad offenses to suddenly become good, with their rising tides lifting the counting stats of everyone around.
Given that, we need to sort out the possible chaff from this final harvest of wheat. Let's get to it.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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