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Fantasy Baseball: Smoke Or Fire?

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Hello friends.

Labor Day is behind us and the calendar has officially flipped to the last month of everyone's championship runs...hopefully.

For those out of the race, we salute you. But for those that remain, a month of difficult decisions may await you because, unlike the previous five months, we're basically out of road on the whole "will so-and-so turn it around?" portion of the proceedings. The band of players you may be willing to sit in favor of some new hotness will continue to expand, as there's officially no time to wait. No time to wait for lingering injuries to clear up, no time for sluggish stars to get going again, no time to wait for bad offenses to suddenly become good, with their rising tides lifting the counting stats of everyone around.

Given that, we need to sort out the possible chaff from this final harvest of wheat. Let's get to it.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Second-Half Snell Is Doing It Again

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Over the course of any given calendar year, Major League Baseball is full of oddities. The Dodgers gave the largest pitching contract ever to a starting pitcher who'd never pitched in the majors. The Marlins waved the white flag on their season after about five weeks. Rich Hill signed his eighth career free agent deal with the Red Sox. Heck, Danny Jansen played in the same game for two different teams. All that said, Blake Snell has had one of the strangest calendar years of any player in the game.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 3:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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Will Gerrit Cole Get To Free Agency?

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For most of the season, it has seemed quite unlikely that Gerrit Cole would be part of next year's free agent class. The defending AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out clause after this season, but the deal is structured in such a way that makes it difficult for him to get to the market.

This is year five of his nine-year, $324MM free agent pact. Cole's dominant first four seasons in the Bronx have already established him as one of the best top-of-the-market signings in recent history. The deal allows Cole to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM after this season. The Yankees could then void the opt-out by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 campaign. In the aftermath of Cole's first Cy Young, it was fair to presume the right-hander would opt out, only for New York to exercise the '29 option. Cole's agent Scott Boras suggested as much last December. That's no longer a lock.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals

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In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.

Jason asks:

Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?

Bob asks:

I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.

I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?

No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.

I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago.  Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season.  I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has.  But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.

At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about.  After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction.  We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market.  We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.

Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age.  He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%.  So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.

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Fantasy Baseball: Stretch Run Prep

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Hello friends.

With September almost upon us, let's keep things going with some prep work for any championship runs in fantasy. We've taken a look the last two weeks at which teams to target when streaming pitchers, so it's time to flip over to the hitting side of things. And KISS shall be our guiding principle. No, not Gene Simmons and dem boys; I'm talking about Keeping It Simple Sucka's.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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What Might It Cost To Extend Garrett Crochet?

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Despite months of trade speculation, Garrett Crochet was not moved at the deadline. His contract status seemed to be a big reason. A few days before the deadline, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Crochet sought an extension if he was going to pitch in the postseason. Whether he'd simply have refused to play in October if he landed with a contender isn't clear. Crochet didn't have the leverage to force a team to sign him long term.

At the same time, Crochet's stance complicated the White Sox's efforts to find a package they felt worthwhile. GM Chris Getz seemed taken aback by the public revelation of Crochet's extension desire (link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). While Getz maintained that the relationship between the player and team was still strong, he said the manner in which the situation was addressed was "a bit hurtful ... considering I felt like we could have handled it a little bit differently."

The Sox continued to discuss Crochet right up to the July 30 deadline. No deal came together. Only the White Sox know whether that's because of the extension hold-up. In any case, he'll finish out the year in Chicago. Crochet could be the most popular trade candidate of the upcoming offseason. The Sox are very unlikely to be competitive in the next two seasons. Chicago should try to move Crochet this winter.

Maybe they won't need to make progress on an extension to do so. Crochet's desire for a long-term deal was tied to his workload reaching a level which he'd never approached in college or the minor leagues. His camp was worried about his arm health if he pitched into October. That's not happening with the White Sox, who can pull back on his workload in an effort to keep him on the field. They're already doing so. Crochet hasn't thrown more than four innings in a game since the start of July. That's generally not a performance question but a clear goal to avoid stressing his arm. Chicago pulled him yesterday after 57 pitches and four innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts.

Even if an extension isn't an absolute necessity to facilitate a trade, Crochet is presumably still amenable to discussing a long-term contract. That's unlikely to come with the White Sox, who are at the nadir of a rebuild and have never guaranteed a player more than $75MM (the ill-fated Andrew Benintendi deal). If a contender wanted to extend Crochet -- either as a condition of a trade or simply after acquiring him -- what kind of price could it take?

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