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The Other, Other NL MVP Candidate

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For much of the season Shohei Ohtani has been the presumptive National League MVP favorite. Maybe that wasn't the case on Opening Day, but an injury to teammate Mookie Betts early in the summer and an injury to D-backs star infielder Ketel Marte cleared his path. The Ohtani hype is understandable. He's been the National League's best hitter this year by many measures, pacing the Senior Circuit in slugging percentage (.613) and wRC+ (167). Ohtani is fifth in the NL in batting average, fourth in OBP, first in homers and runs scored and second in runs batted in. He's also swiped 46 bags and is a veritable lock to have a 45-45 season, with a chance at becoming MLB's first ever 50-homer, 50-steal player in a season.

Lately, there's been a push by Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor to tighten the race, however. Dating back to July 1, Lindor boasts a sensational .310/.384/.587 slash. He's in the midst of a torrid 15-game hitting streak, which he started just one game after seeing a 12-game hitting streak end. Since the beginning of July, Lindor has more than twice as many multi-hit games (22) than he does hitless games (10). Defensive metrics are a bit split on him this year, with Defensive Runs Saved curiously pegging him as average while Statcast grades him as one of the best defensive players in the entire game. Regardless, Lindor and his .274/.343/.501 batting line (plus 30 homers and 26 steals)  lead the NL in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR.

It's not quite fair to the rest of the field to call this a pure two-horse race, though Lindor and Ohtani are certainly the favorites at the moment. Cincinnati standout Elly De La Cruz could thrust himself further into the conversation with a big finish, but many voters will be turned off by the fact that however excellent his season has been -- and it's been excellent -- it's happened as a member of a non-contending Reds club.

There's still one other viable MVP candidate who's not getting the love, and who probably won't get the love -- but absolutely should.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Rangers, Bichette, White Sox, Jordan Walker

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Today's mailbag gets into possible offensive additions for the Rangers, Bo Bichette trade scenarios, the White Sox and the record books, requiring starters to go six innings, Jordan Walker's future, and much more.

Kevin asks:

Do you see the Rangers getting a DH/ outfielder that hits for power?

Evan Carter was the Rangers' starting left fielder entering the season, but he struggled to hit and his season ended in May with a back injury.  Carter is only 22 years old and went into this season as one of the game's best prospects.  He'll have to re-establish himself a bit but I assume the Rangers will generally keep a spot open for him.

Carter could play center field, which was manned by Leody Taveras this year.  Taveras fits better in a fourth outfielder role.  But making Carter your starting center fielder coming off a serious back injury and without having proven himself as a big league hitter would be a risky plan.

Carter is something of a question mark, but then there's Adolis Garcia.  Garcia, 32 in March, is under contract for $9.25MM in 2025 and then potentially under control for 2026 as an arbitration-eligible player.  Garcia was an All-Star from 2021-23 before a lost '24.  Garcia's 2024 season has gone like this: insane in April, basically unplayable from May through July, and then about league average since August.  Do you trade him at a low point?  The bounceback potential is lower for a guy who will be turning 32.

Much-hyped rookie Wyatt Langford has logged 25 games at DH plus 729 innings in the outfield (mostly left).  23 in November, Langford has held his own with a league average bat, flashing star potential in June as well as over the last 10 days or so.  His likely home is left field.

The '23 Rangers saw big power from Carter (briefly), Corey Seager, Garcia, Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien, and Josh Jung.  Seager and Jung have continued to show pretty good power, and Langford certainly could next year.  Carter and Garcia are unknowns, with Semien joining them and not necessarily expected to bounce back at age 34.  The Rangers also don't get much pop at first base in Nathaniel Lowe.

A center fielder who can hit would fit better than a corner guy, but good luck finding one.  Luis Robert should be available, but he's coming off a Garcia-like season himself.  Cody Bellinger could fit on the Rangers position-wise, but he's posted a 105 wRC+ this season.  Bellinger's contract makes him hard to trade, as he'll make $27.5MM in '25 with a $25MM player option and $5MM buyout for '26 (assuming he doesn't opt out this winter).

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The A’s Position Player Core Is Emerging

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The A's have quietly been one of the better teams in the American League for the past two months. As USA Today's Bob Nightengale observed last night (on X), only the Astros have a better record among AL clubs since the start of July. Oakland was above .500 in both July and August; last night's walk-off win over Seattle has pushed them to 31-22 since July began. They've outscored opponents by 37 runs in that time.

Their second-half success doesn't have much impact this year. The A's had a dreadful first half that ensures they're headed to a third straight losing season. They'll probably avoid a third last-place finish in as many years, but they're not likely to finish higher than fourth in the AL West. Even with 90 losses still in play, the past few months offer a glimpse at a better future for A's fans who'll stick with the team in Sacramento and Las Vegas. That's particularly true in the lineup, where a controllable core is beginning to take shape.

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Fantasy Baseball: Smoke Or Fire?

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Hello friends.

Labor Day is behind us and the calendar has officially flipped to the last month of everyone's championship runs...hopefully.

For those out of the race, we salute you. But for those that remain, a month of difficult decisions may await you because, unlike the previous five months, we're basically out of road on the whole "will so-and-so turn it around?" portion of the proceedings. The band of players you may be willing to sit in favor of some new hotness will continue to expand, as there's officially no time to wait. No time to wait for lingering injuries to clear up, no time for sluggish stars to get going again, no time to wait for bad offenses to suddenly become good, with their rising tides lifting the counting stats of everyone around.

Given that, we need to sort out the possible chaff from this final harvest of wheat. Let's get to it.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Second-Half Snell Is Doing It Again

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Over the course of any given calendar year, Major League Baseball is full of oddities. The Dodgers gave the largest pitching contract ever to a starting pitcher who'd never pitched in the majors. The Marlins waved the white flag on their season after about five weeks. Rich Hill signed his eighth career free agent deal with the Red Sox. Heck, Danny Jansen played in the same game for two different teams. All that said, Blake Snell has had one of the strangest calendar years of any player in the game.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today at 3:00pm central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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Will Gerrit Cole Get To Free Agency?

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For most of the season, it has seemed quite unlikely that Gerrit Cole would be part of next year's free agent class. The defending AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out clause after this season, but the deal is structured in such a way that makes it difficult for him to get to the market.

This is year five of his nine-year, $324MM free agent pact. Cole's dominant first four seasons in the Bronx have already established him as one of the best top-of-the-market signings in recent history. The deal allows Cole to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM after this season. The Yankees could then void the opt-out by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 campaign. In the aftermath of Cole's first Cy Young, it was fair to presume the right-hander would opt out, only for New York to exercise the '29 option. Cole's agent Scott Boras suggested as much last December. That's no longer a lock.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Soto, Bichette, Tigers, Cardinals

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In this week's mailbag, I discuss Juan Soto's free agent contract, the Rangers' 2025 rotation, possible matches in a Bo Bichette trade, outlooks next year for the Tigers and Cardinals, and much more.

Jason asks:

Juan Soto is obviously going to be the talk of the offseason. He has also undoubtedly proven a huge asset in helping Aaron Judge be walked less (even if hitting in front of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & dollars?

Bob asks:

I have watched Juan Soto a lot this year and am thinking about pros and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or any other team signing) him to a long-term free agent contract during the offseason. He is obviously a great hitter and great teammate but as I have watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he is a good, but not great defender and he is not particularly fast. Based on that, I wonder how he will age and what he will look like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I suspect, at age 25, he will be looking for a 12+ year contract and I am not sure what a 37-year-old (or even a 33-year-old) Soto will look like.

I was talking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer and he thought that Soto might sign a shorter-term contract with the Yankees because of the "intangibles" of playing in New York but I am doubtful about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and biggest dollars, no matter who offers it. My fear is that Soto will become another Robinson Cano - not so pretty as he ages. On the other hand, the WAR that he will produce for the next 5-8 years might be worth eating 4 or 5 less productive years. Thoughts?

No one knows how much Soto will get, and nothing is guaranteed.

I remember when the "perfect" free agent hit the market six years ago.  Bryce Harper was a Boras Corporation client going into his age-26 season.  I'll admit that his 2018 contract year was not nearly as impressive as Soto's, and Harper had not quieted modest concerns about his defense to the degree Soto has.  But Harper was a Hall of Fame track superstar in his prime, just like Soto.

At various points leading up to Harper's free agency, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM were bandied about.  After much debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction.  We felt Harper would fly past Giancarlo Stanton's $325MM record, which had not been achieved on the open market.  We also thought Harper would sacrifice a record average annual value, "settling" for a $30MM AAV that would cause less competitive balance tax pain.

Instead, Harper's market was inexplicably cold given his track record, ceiling, and age.  He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a way of inching past Stanton's total by a mere $5MM or 1.5%.  So we ended up being $90MM high on our prediction, but time has shown that many teams that were unwilling to top the Phillies' offer would have benefited from doing so.

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Fantasy Baseball: Stretch Run Prep

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Hello friends.

With September almost upon us, let's keep things going with some prep work for any championship runs in fantasy. We've taken a look the last two weeks at which teams to target when streaming pitchers, so it's time to flip over to the hitting side of things. And KISS shall be our guiding principle. No, not Gene Simmons and dem boys; I'm talking about Keeping It Simple Sucka's.

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