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MLB Mailbag: Soto, Skubal, Cubs, A’s, Braves, Crews, Cardinals, NL Awards

By Steve Adams | August 21, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag! This week, I fielded questions on Juan Soto's free agency, Tarik Skubal's emergence as an elite arm, Hector Neris' release, the Cubs' luxury-tax status, the Athletics' outlook in Sacramento, the Braves' litany of injuries and their playoff chances, the Cardinals and player development, Dylan Crews' timeline, various NL Award outlooks and, lastly, made some way-too-early, surely-incorrect picks for free agent destinations.

Let's dive in!

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Fantasy Baseball: Streaming Endgame – The Righties

By Nicklaus Gaut | August 20, 2024 at 5:13pm CDT

Hello friends.

Why don't we get right into it? Last week, we looked at some updated data on how to be more selective about your streaming targets according to pitcher handedness. We covered the left-handers last week, so it's time to pivot over to the right side of things. There's only six(ish) weeks still left - there's no time to wait.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By Steve Adams | August 19, 2024 at 11:06am CDT

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

By Steve Adams | August 16, 2024 at 11:45pm CDT

The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Front Office Originals Membership Texas Rangers Andrew Chafin Andrew Heaney Carson Kelly David Robertson Jon Gray Jose Leclerc Kirby Yates Max Scherzer Nathan Eovaldi Tyler Mahle

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | August 16, 2024 at 12:52pm CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Ray

By Tim Dierkes | August 15, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

In today's mailbag, we get into the Nationals' needs, the Cardinals' situations with Nolans Arenado and Gorman, how the Cubs might approach the offseason, whether Robbie Ray will opt out, and much more.

Kevin asks:

The Nats have a lot of talented youngsters ready to join the team but opening the window will require some veterans. Should they: Make us whole and try to sign Juan Soto, use that money to hire two or three solid veterans, or try several shorter term contracts because the window will really first open in 2026?

Soto returning to the Nats is an intriguing idea.  A lot of the best free agent signings have been for young superstars, though it's unclear whether the Nationals would offer even more than the $440MM Soto turned down two years ago.  Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has said he made three offers to Soto within a year, and none of them were countered.  Since then, the Lerners decided not to sell the Nationals, so you could say there's more certainty with ownership.

One question is whether the Lerners will return to the days of a top-ten payroll.  I don't know the answer to that, but they have almost nothing on the books after this year aside from the Stephen Strasburg contract.

As it relates to Soto, it's worth asking whether the Nationals committing to an outfielder is a good use of resources.  A Hall of Fame talent like Soto would be a great addition to any team, but if James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III all become productive Major League outfielders as the Nationals expect, something would have to give.

Here's a look around the diamond to assess what the Nats might need:

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Alex Bregman Has Returned To Form

By Anthony Franco | August 14, 2024 at 6:31pm CDT

Alex Bregman did not have a good start to his platform year. The two-time All-Star hit .216/.283/.294 through the season's first month. His production in May was better (.221/.276/.442) but still far below his typical level. Bregman wasn't the biggest culprit for the Astros' rough start -- rotation injuries and a complete lack of production out of first base shouldered the majority of the blame -- but his underperformance was another red flag in a season that looked like it might go off the rails.

That's all changed in the past two and a half months. Player and team alike have found their stride since the start of June. The Astros are 39-22 going back to June 1. That includes an ongoing seven-game win streak that is the current best in MLB. A team that was once 12 games below .500 and 10 games back in the division race now holds a game and a half lead on the Mariners in the AL West. Houston and Seattle have almost completely pulled away from the defending champion Rangers, who have plummeted 9.5 back of a playoff spot.

Bregman is one of the biggest reasons for that resurgence. He has been a top 25 hitter in MLB since the start of June, hitting .302/.357/.516 with 12 homers. He's got five longballs in August alone, tying him for fifth (behind Jake Burger, Corey Seager, Ketel Marte and Juan Soto) in that regard. Bregman has put his early-season swoon behind him, albeit with one notable change from his pre-2024 production.

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Front Office Originals Houston Astros Membership Alex Bregman

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Fantasy Baseball: Streaming Endgame – The Lefties

By Nicklaus Gaut | August 13, 2024 at 7:17pm CDT

Hello friends.

Pardon my absence these last two weeks, as I've had some family health issues to deal with. But I'm back now, babies, and ready to buckle down for our fantasy stretch run.

With all due respect to hitters and relievers, the most value that'll be found on the wire from now until close will come from streaming pitchers. And by value, I mean the production that can realistically help you catch up (or shore up) certain categories in your quest for a championship. I don't just mean streaming pitchers from the waiver wire, either. The band of pitchers you consider "must starts" will almost necessarily whittle itself down as decisions need to be cut with a knife that's more and more subtle as the season comes to a close.

With that in mind, let's update our previous looks at targeted streaming. That is, paying a more particular mind to which teams should be avoided and targeted according to the pitcher handedness of your possible options.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | August 12, 2024 at 9:39am CDT

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | August 8, 2024 at 12:22pm CDT

MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2:00pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Click the link below to read the transcript.

 

 

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