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10 NL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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With the regular season approaching, we’re taking a look at hitters and pitchers from each division who are seeking bounce-back years in 2020. We’ve already covered the American League, so let’s head to the Senior Circuit and begin with 10 NL East hitters hoping to rebound from subpar 2019 showings this year.

Didi Gregorius, SS, Phillies:

With a one-year, $14MM guarantee, Gregorius was one of the Phillies’ highest-profile acquisitions during the offseason, though the former Yankees star landed the contract off a less-than-ideal platform year. After returning from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June, the 30-year-old hit a below-average .238/.276/.441 and totaled only 0.9 fWAR over 344 plate appearances. Gregorius also wound up under the league average in several important Statcast categories. Nevertheless, as someone who put up no worse than 4.0 fWAR in both 2017 and ’18, the Phillies are banking on a rebound; otherwise, they can simply move on after the season.

Johan Camargo, 3B, Braves:

The switch-hitting Camargo was a 3.0-fWAR player two seasons ago, but he fell flat last year, turning in a minus-0.5 effort with a dismal .233/.279/.384 line in 248 plate appearances. Despite that, he’s in the running (along with Austin Riley) to start at third base this season for the Braves, who lost previous No. 1 option Josh Donaldson in free agency.

Yan Gomes, C, Nationals:

Gomes earned the lone All-Star nod of his career in 2018, his final season with the Indians, but saw his offensive production dip in Year 1 with the Nationals. A slow start doomed Gomes to a .223/.316/.389 line in 358 PA, though he did experience a major offensive rebound in the second half. Defensively, while Gomes did throw out 31 percent of would-be base thieves, his pitch-framing numbers fell off a cliff. Still, the Nationals brought him back for two years and $10MM to once again team with Kurt Suzuki.

Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets:

Cano was supposed to be the long-term answer at second for the Mets, who paid a pretty penny for him and closer Edwin Diaz in a trade with the Mariners in December 2018. Instead, the longtime star turned in the worst season of his excellent career, batting .256/.307/.428 in 423 trips to the plate during an injury-shortened campaign. Cano recorded far better numbers during the second half of the season, though, and ranked near the top of the league in multiple Statcast categories (average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage). So, it may be too soon to declare the 37-year-old done; at least, the Mets hope that’s the case.

Wilson Ramos, C, Mets:

Ramos was yet another of the Mets’ hyped pre-2019 pickups whose first season with the team didn’t go as hoped. The 32-year-old did notch a respectable batting line for his position, slashing .288/.351/.416 across 524 PA, but it paled in comparison to what he did the previous season. And Ramos wasn’t exactly a strength defensively. He threw out just 15 percent of would-be base stealers and ended up near the bottom of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Jed Lowrie, INF, Mets:

There may not have been a more ill-fated addition for the Mets last offseason than Lowrie. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract after back-to-back terrific seasons with the Athletics, multiple injuries limited Lowrie to nine games and eight plate appearances. The 35-year-old isn’t even a lock to participate this season, as he continues to deal with leg troubles. Even if Lowrie does play, he’s not slated to be anything more than a backup right now. Perhaps that will change as the season goes along, but Lowrie will have to get healthy first.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets:

Hey, another Met! Cespedes is coming off an injury-ravaged couple years – including an ailment he suffered during a run-in with a wild boar – but seems to be making progress now. The talent’s there for a bounce-back campaign, but if your stance is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” you’re not alone.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets:

Maybe we should change the name of this list to “Mets Hitters Who Are Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons.” Nimmo was the most productive of this group last year, at least offensively, but his output fell shy of his coming-out party in 2018. Injuries held the on-base machine to 69 games, 254 PA, a .221/.375/.407 line and 1.3 fWAR. Meanwhile, his hard-hit percentage plummeted by seven points and his expected weighted on-base average dropped from .352 to .330, per Statcast.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Marlins:

Aguilar was among the game’s most prolific sluggers as a member of the Brewers in 2018, when he registered a 134 wRC+ and amassed 35 home runs. But he was unable to follow it up during a 2019 divided between Milwaukee and Tampa Bay. Aguilar concluded with an uninspiring .236/.325/.389 line and 12 homers across 389 trips to the plate. However, according to Statcast (.334 xwOBA versus .307 real wOBA), he may have deserved better. The Marlins are banking on that after plucking the 29-year-old off waivers over the winter.

Francisco Cervelli, C, Marlins:

Like Aguilar, Cervelli’s production dropped precipitously in 2019. The 34-year-old’s longtime concussion problems came to the forefront again, holding him to 160 PA of replacement-level production. But Cervelli was a very good contributor just two seasons ago, and for $2MM, Miami’s hoping he’ll serve as a solid complement and mentor to Jorge Alfaro.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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While the Marlins are far from pushing for contention, they did spend some money to add proven veteran talent to their roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

In something of a role reversal, the Marlins took an undesirable contract off a rebuilding team’s hands when they landed Jonathan Villar in what was essentially a salary dump for the Orioles.  Villar ended up avoiding arbitration by agreeing with Miami on an $8.2MM salary for the 2020 season — lower than both the $10.4MM MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection model forecast for Villar, and also the roughly $9MM or so that Swartz personally predicted in his closer examination of Villar’s rather unique case.

Even at $8.2MM, Villar was deemed too expensive by a Baltimore team that is stripping its roster down in the early stages of a lengthy rebuild, leaving the Marlins in position to add a quality second baseman coming off a 4.0 fWAR season.  Or, I should say, a potentially former second baseman who will be seeing some time in center field, as the Marlins will try Villar on the outfield grass to free up a position for prospect Isan Diaz.  It could end up being a short-lived audition depending on Villar’s glovework or if Diaz (who had only a .566 OPS over 201 MLB plate appearances in 2019) continues to struggle against Major League pitching.  However, considering that former top prospect Lewis Brinson has also yet to break out at the big league level, there’s no harm for Miami in seeing if Villar can help their center field situation.  If so, it could only enhance his trade value at the deadline, as Villar is only under contract through the end of the season.

The Fish added another veteran regular in Corey Dickerson, who was signed to a $17.5MM deal that covers the 2020-21 seasons.  The outfield was a prime area of need for Miami this winter, as such names as Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia, and — somewhat surprisingly — even Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were considered.  The fact that the Marlins at least checked in on the latter two names could indicate that the team had at least some willingness to really expand their payroll, or it could be that they were simply doing due diligence to see if either Castellanos or Ozuna were willing to lower their asking price.  (As it happened, Ozuna did end up signing a one-year deal, but with the reigning NL East champion Braves.)

In the end, it will be Dickerson who mans left field at Marlins Park, as the 30-year-old looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2019 campaign.  Dickerson was still very productive when healthy, batting .304/.341/.565 over 279 PA with the Pirates and Phillies, and anything close to those numbers would greatly boost a Marlins lineup that was arguably the worst in baseball last season.

In other offensive upgrades, the Marlins claimed Jesus Aguilar in the hopes that he can regain his 35-homer stroke from the 2018 season, and also signed Matt Joyce to share playing time in right field.  Garrett Cooper will see plenty of at-bats as either a first baseman or right fielder, with Aguilar or Joyce (or utilityman Jon Berti, or younger outfield options like Magneuris Sierra or Harold Ramirez) in the mix to handle the other position.

With Jorge Alfaro perhaps questionable for Opening Day due to an oblique injury, Miami’s signing of Francisco Cervelli looks like an even more important move.  Cervelli could end up getting a bit more time behind the plate than expected if Alfaro is on the injured list, though when Alfaro is back, Cervelli will slide into a backup role and offer a bit more seasoned glovework than the somewhat defensively erratic Alfaro.

Cervelli isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s better-hitting catchers, which fits the model of Miami’s approach to their position player acquisitions.  All of these players were solid-to-very good just last year (Joyce), as recently as 2018 (Aguilar, Cervelli, minor league signing Matt Kemp) or in both seasons (Dickerson, Villar).  Should the Marlins get some in-form production from the majority of these new faces and get continued improvement from the likes of Cooper, Alfaro, and Brian Anderson, Miami’s offense could take some pitchers by surprise.

The revamped bullpen also offers some upside, as Brandon Kintzler was signed to be the likely first choice at closer after the veteran righty’s solid 2019 season with the Cubs.  Kintzler is a few years removed from his last closing experience at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, but he’ll handle the ninth behind a core group that includes Ryne Stanek, minor league signing and former All-Star closer Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia, inked to a big league deal after the Dodgers non-tendered him.  Garcia is perhaps the most intriguing of the newcomers, as his peripheral numbers hint at some real talent, were it not for the right-hander’s alarming propensity for allowing home runs.  Pitching at Marlins Park could help that issue to some extent, and if Garcia can more fully limit the damage, he could be something of a steal.

While this winter’s expenditures count as something of a spending spree by Marlins standards, they aren’t doling out any new money.  Villar’s $8.2MM and Miami’s $25.35MM in offseason free agents contracts just about match up to the 2019 salaries of several veterans who are no longer on the books (Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker).  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Marlins’ projected $68.925MM Opening Day payroll is actually lower than their $71.9MM figure from last season’s opener.

In short, the Marlins might not have done enough this winter to escape the ire of the players’ union.  The MLB Players Association has filed an amended grievance against the Marlins (as well as the Pirates and the Rays) for their use of revenue-sharing funds in both the 2018-19 and 2017-18 offseasons.  Given that none of those clubs broke the bank over the last few months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2019-20 offseason also added to this grievance.

It was no surprise that Miami didn’t spend big this winter, as the organization has been very clear about its intentions to build around young talent and resist the quick-fix splurges that often marked the Jeffrey Loria era.  It still might be a couple of years before the Marlins feel they have enough of a core group in place to ramp up spending as the White Sox and Reds did this offseason.

It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move.  Despite interest from multiple teams, the Marlins held onto controllable rotation arms like Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Urena.  Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.

2020 Season Outlook

Will the Marlins lose 105 games again?  The NL East (and pretty much the entire National League) still looks quite competitive, but it seems on paper as if the Fish have done enough to get back down to double digits in the loss column.  Fangraphs projects “only” 95.5 losses for Miami in 2020, which counts as some small victory, but it would still be a big surprise if Miami escaped another last-place finish.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

MLBPA Has Expanded Grievance Against Marlins, Rays

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It was reported yesterday that the Major League Baseball Players Association has expanded its grievance proceeding against the Pirates. The MLBPA has also done so with respect to the Marlins and Rays, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).

Originally, the union attacked those three teams as well as the Athletics for their allocation of revenue-sharing funds during the 2017-18 transactional period. The new claims presumably level similar charges with respect to the 2018-19 offseason. It is not specifically known whether the Oakland organization stands accused of further misdeeds.

Revenue sharing provisions are collectively bargained, with recipient teams required to account for their investments. The union’s precise charges and precise requests for relief are not fully known. In essence, it’s not hard to grasp: the MLBPA feels these teams aren’t spending enough on MLB player salaries.

The Marlins significantly drew down their Opening Day payroll level in each of the past two seasons. They peaked at $115MM and change in 2017, then dropped to under $100MM and then to about $72MM in the 2019 campaign. The Miami organization spent just $4.5MM on free agents last winter while shedding some larger salaries via trade.

Of course, it was widely anticipated that the Marlins were heading for another rough season. Since the sale of the organization, it has been fully enmeshed in a rebuilding effort. The club did boost its spending in the just-completed offseason, not that doing so speaks to its actions in prior winters.

The situation is a bit different for the Rays, who’ve compiled consecutive 90-game winning rosters. They’ve done so with minimal Opening Day payroll commitments — just $76MM in 2018 and $60MM in 2019 — though they added salary throughout both seasons. While their year-over-year payroll dropped, the Rays also did add one big contract last winter when they struck a two-year, $30MM deal with Charlie Morton.

Jeff Brigham Likely To Start Season On IL

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  • Marlins’ reliever Jeff Brigham is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’s dealing with a right biceps issue that has thus far kept him from ramping up his throwing program. The 28-year-old logged only a 4.46 ERA with average strikeout (24.2%) and walk (8.7%) rates in 32 appearances last season. However, the former Dodger farmhand averaged 96.6 MPH on his heater with significant fastball and slider spin. That quality stuff helps to explain the Marlins’ decision to keep Brigham on the 40-man roster this winter despite an offseason full of churn in the bullpen.

Latest On Jorge Alfaro

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The Marlins are still not sure that their top backstop will be ready for the start of the season, but the general prognosis seems promising. Skipper Don Mattingly says that Jorge Alfaro has been cleared to engage in some baseball activities. as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro was among those to cover on Twitter.

Alfaro has been laying low while dealing with a left oblique strain. While there’s still no indication that it’s a significant injury, it’s always prudent to exercise caution with this particular area of the body. Rather than pushing too hard and risking a more significant injury, the Fish will ease Alfaro back into action.

The Marlins would obviously prefer to have Alfaro behind the dish when the season gets underway. The 26-year-old is a key part of the team’s present and future hopes. After a solid but uneven showing last year, his first in Miami, he’ll be looking to make strides in 2020.

If Alaro is unable to prepare fully for the start of the upcoming campaign, there is a ready-made backup plan in the form of respected veteran Francisco Cervelli. Reserve duties could go to Chad Wallach, the only other backstop on the 40-man. Experienced big leaguer Ryan Lavarnway is also in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Tom Koehler Retires

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Right-hander Tom Koehler, in camp with the Pirates as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, announced his retirement from baseball on Instagram this morning. The 33-year-old Koehler says he’s looking forward to “starting [his] next chapter in the game,” whenever and whatever that may hold. For now, it seems as though he’ll take some time with his family.

Tom Koehler

From 2013-16, Koehler was a solid and durable constant at the back of the Marlins’ rotation, averaging 30 starts per season while pitching to a 4.14 ERA with averages of 6.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 1.0 home runs per nine innings pitched. He struggled early in the 2017 season and found himself traded to the Blue Jays, with whom he posted an intriguing 15-game relief stint (2.65 ERA, 18-to-6 K/BB ratio in 17 innings). That showing prompted the Dodgers to take a look at Koehler in the offseason with the hope that he could transform his career as a late-inning bullpen piece.

Instead, Koehler was beset by shoulder injuries in 2018. After spending more than half the season trying to rehab an anterior capsule strain and make his Dodgers debut, Koehler underwent surgery that ended his 2018 season. He never threw a pitch at the MLB level for the Dodgers. He signed with the Pirates both last offseason and earlier this winter but wasn’t able to get back onto the hill.

It’s a tough way to end a playing career, although as an 18th-round senior sign back in 2008, Koehler exceeded any and all expectations. The Stony Brook alum pitched in 161 Major League games, totaling 784 1/3 innings of 4.39 ERA ball along the way. Koehler’s 36-55 record is more an indictment on the sub-par Marlins rosters surrounding him for much of his career than on his own abilities on the mound. He was generally a serviceable option, twice leading the club in games started and once leading them in innings pitched. Koehler was never a household name but pitched into his arbitration years, helping him to secure more than $12MM in total salary. Best wishes to Koehler in whatever path he next pursues.

Yankees, Royals, Marlins Among Teams To Have Recently Scouted Henderson Alvarez

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The Yankees, Royals and Marlins are among the teams that have scouted a recent throwing session from right-hander Henderson Alvarez, The Athletic’s Marc Carig reports while chronicling the 29-year-old’s latest comeback efforts. Alvarez has frequently taken to social media to post clips of his workouts and bullpen sessions, and he’s drawn at least a few speculative scouting assignments, although obviously no deal has come together yet. If or when he does sign, it’d surely be on a minor league pact.

Since being named to the NL All-Star team as a 24-year-old back in 2014, Alvarez has thrown just 37 innings in the Major Leagues and 116 1/3 innings of affiliated ball in the minors. He’s also tallied 165 1/3 frames in the Mexican League. Alvarez underwent shoulder surgery in both 2015 and 2016 — the effects of which have largely derailed what looked to be an otherwise promising career. However, he remains motivated to return to the big leagues, telling Carig: “I know I can still give more.”

Alvarez did pitch in affiliated ball last year, throwing 53 innings with the Nationals’ Triple-A club. Like most pitchers in Triple-A — the Pacific Coast League in particular — he was plagued by home runs, serving up 15 long balls en route to a 5.94 ERA. After being cut loose by the Nats, Alvarez returned to Mexico to make six starts for los Tigres de Quintana Roo. In 34 2/3 innings, he logged a 3.12 ERA with a 23-to-5 K/BB ratio and a 57.6 percent ground-ball rate. He closed out the season with a complete-game victory wherein he allowed one run.

The Yankees have lost Luis Severino for the season (Tommy John surgery) and James Paxton for more than a month of the regular season (back surgery), so it’s only natural to see them at least exploring depth additions in the rotation. At the moment, it looks as though Jordan Montgomery will take the fourth spot behind Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The competition for the fifth spot includes Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Mike King and Chad Bettis, among others.

The Royals, meanwhile, don’t have a defined fifth starter, and club decision-makers have been open about the possibility of bringing in a veteran option even as they allow their plethora of highly regarded young arms to compete for that starting job. Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis and Mike Montgomery should hold down the top four spots. The competition for the team’s fifth starter presently is vast and could ultimately be a revolving door early in the year if the club opts to use an opener. Jesse Hahn, Eric Skoglund and Chance Adams are among the names on the 40-man roster vying for a look. Top prospects Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar could all be factors eventually as well.

Rotation help isn’t as needed in Miami, where the Marlins have a wealth of controllable options with MLB experience who’ll comprise one of the game’s youngest starting staffs. Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena and Jordan Yamamoto have the most experience, and the wave of high-end arms immediately behind them includes the likes of Sixto Sanchez, Nick Neidert and Edward Cabrera. But Alvarez’s lone All-Star season in ’14 came as a Marlin, and a comeback with the Miami organization would make for a compelling storyline in South Florida.

NL East Notes: Nimmo, Adams, Marlins, Kingery

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After undergoing more rounds of cardiac testing, Brandon Nimmo has been cleared to resume baseball activity, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News).  There was some concern yesterday after it was announced that Nimmo would be taking the extra tests after being scratched from a spring lineup, though it appears as though Nimmo can return to action as per usual.  The outfielder is already trying to rebound from an injury-shortened season, as a bulging cervical disk limited Nimmo to only 69 games in 2019.  While Nimmo is returning, however, Matt Adams will also be undergoing more cardiac tests.  The eight-year veteran signed a minor league contract with the Mets last month and is hoping to crack the roster as first base/outfield bench depth.

More from the NL East…

  • Though the Marlins traded Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks last summer, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro doesn’t expect the Fish to part ways with any of its other young rotation arms with big league experience.  The Gallen deal was unique in that Miami was able to acquire another very intriguing young player in Jazz Chisholm, and while such names as Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Urena have drawn interest from other teams, the Marlins aren’t likely to move any more pitchers until they determine which of that group (as well as any of the other pitching prospects on the way up) are truly long-term pieces.
  • Scott Kingery put on some extra weight and muscle during the offseason to help combat the grind of the long season, and he told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) that focusing on a single position might also help keep him fresh down the stretch.  Throughout his two MLB seasons, Kingery’s play has suffered as the season has gone on, with a .576 OPS over 213 plate appearances in July and a .611 OPS in 157 September PA.  “The more your body gets worn down, the more you start recruiting muscles that you don’t want to be recruiting in your swing.  You’re just trying to find anything in your body to get your swing through rather than having it be free and easy like I want it,” Kingery said.  Becoming a primary second baseman could also help, as Kingery said that playing a super-utility role made him “gassed by the time the game was played.  It was a mental battle to try to figure out my routine and what I needed to do to get my mind and my body ready to play multiple positions.”  While the Phillies may still deploy Kingery in the outfield on occasion, the team’s current plan is to line him up regularly at second base or third base, depending on where Jean Segura is best suited.  Segura is himself changing positions, moving from his longtime shortstop spot to accommodate Didi Gregorius.

Jorge Alfardo Scratched Due To Oblique Tightness

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  • Jorge Alfaro was a scratch from the Marlins’ lineup today due to left oblique tightness (Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald was among those to report the news).  Alfaro is day-to-day, though obviously any type of oblique issue is a concern, given how such injuries have been known to keep players out for weeks at a time depending on the severity.  On the plus side, Alfaro isn’t being sent for an MRI, according to reporter Craig Mish (via Twitter).  After a 2019 that saw Alfaro hit .262/.312/.425 with 18 homers over 465 PA while posting some subpar blocking and framing numbers, Alfaro is still considered to be Miami’s first-choice catcher heading into 2020, though the club did add Francisco Cervelli as a veteran complement this winter.

Matt Kemp Hopes To Play At Least Four More Years

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He’s not the superstar he was in his heyday with the Dodgers, but Marlins outfielder Matt Kemp still believes he has plenty left to offer at the major league level. Kemp “wants to play at least four or five more years,” Steven Wine of the Associated Press writes.

“I’m for real. I can still do some damage out there,” Kemp said. “This is a redemption year. I had 40 at-bats last year, but I was an All-Star in 2018. Seriously, I can still play.”

Spending roughly another half-decade in the majors looks like quite a long shot for Kemp, who turned 35 last September. The former MVP candidate couldn’t even get a big league deal during the offseason, forcing him to settle for a minors pact with Miami in December. He’s now competing for a backup role in a corner outfield that also includes Corey Dickerson and Matt Joyce – two players who received guaranteed contracts over the winter – as well as Garrett Cooper.

Although Kemp’s defense has long been maligned, he has nonetheless spent his entire career in the DH-less National League, and he’ll try to return to the NL in 2020. As Kemp noted, he’s only two years removed from producing solid numbers in a Dodgers uniform. That year, Kemp batted .290/.338/.481 with 21 home runs in 506 trips to the plate en route to his third All-Star appearance.

While 2018 represented a nice bounce-back season, last year couldn’t have gone any worse for Kemp, whom the Reds acquired from the Dodgers during the previous winter. Thanks in part to a broken rib, he totaled only 62 plate appearances in Cincinnati and hit .200/.210/.283 with one HR before the club released him in early May. Kemp caught on with the Mets on a minors pact a few weeks later, though his rib issues continued, and he slashed miserable .235/.278/.324 in 36 tries at the Triple-A level. The Mets released Kemp in the first half of July, but he’s clearly of the belief that his career is far from over.

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