East Notes: Harper, Marlins, Rays, Montreal
A reporter recently suggested to Nationals star Bryce Harper that he might eventually be able to get a $400MM contract, to which Harper memorably replied, “Don’t sell me short.” $400MM would, of course, be the largest contract ever. But FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Harper might be worth even more. At this point in his career, Harper is similar in value to a young Alex Rodriguez, and A-Rod’s $252MM contract with the Rangers paid him at a rate of about 12 times the MLB average salary at the time. Since then, the average MLB salary has doubled. While there are some slight differences between the two cases (for example, the fact that A-Rod was younger when he signed his deal than Harper will be when he’ll hit free agency following the 2018 season), Cameron argues that the difficulty now in finding good value on the free agent market should help compensate for them. That could make Harper worth something like $40MM-$50MM a year, and given that he’ll have barely turned 26 when he becomes eligible for free agency, his first free agent deal could potentially clear $500MM, or more if it includes deferrals.
- As has been previously reported, the Marlins continue to look for extra starting pitching depth, and due to a tight budget, they’re focusing on hurlers who might be available on minor-league deals. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has the latest details on the team’s pitching search. Previous reports had linked the Marlins to Kyle Lohse, Alfredo Simon, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, and those names continue to be in Miami’s mix — Frisaro notes that when Lincecum and Lee hold workouts, the Marlins plan to attend. Frisaro also mentions 37-year-old Aaron Harang, who at last check had not decided whether or not to play this season. The veteran innings-eater spent 2015 with the Phillies, posting a 4.86 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 172 1/3 innings.
- There’s an outside-the-box idea circulating in Canada, reports Francois Cardinal from La Presse (link in French) — business interests could buy half of the Rays and have them split their home games between the Tampa area and Montreal. The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin has a summary of the plan. Having the team be based in two cities could potentially allow it to maximize television revenue, as games would be broadcast in both markets. Also, per-game attendance would increase because there would be fewer games in each city. Team-related income would be split between both ownership groups. Of course, Cardinal’s idea is far from reality at this point, and there are practical problems, like where in each city the Rays (who are currently trying to find a new stadium site in Tampa Bay) would play, and (as Topkin notes) whether the players association would approve of the arrangement, given the logistical difficulties it would presumably cause players.
Marlins To Sign Craig Breslow To Minors Deal
The Marlins have agreed to a minor league pact with veteran southpaw Craig Breslow, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. He would earn $1.5MM if he can crack the MLB roster.
Though he had kicked around the idea of seeking a starting opportunity, Breslow will reportedly chase a pen slot in Miami. He also considered offers from the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Red Sox.
Working for Boston last year, the 35-year-old carried a 4.15 ERA over 65 frames with 6.4 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. While the results were improved after a tough 2014, Breslow wasn’t able to show quite the same form that led to a 2.82 earned run mark over his first 402 MLB frames over the span of 2005 to 2013.
The veteran’s groundball rate is down and his home run susceptibility is up, and it’s reflected in advanced metrics, which do not put a positive spin on his past two seasons. While he has long outpaced ERA estimators, and did so again in 2015, they are increasingly sour on his work (5.27 FIP, 5.07 xFIP, and 4.51 SIERA last year).
On the other hand, Breslow still pitches with about the same fastball velocity (he averaged 90.0 mph with his four-seamer last year) as he always has. And he boosted his swinging strike rate into double digits for the first time since 2012. He ought to have every opportunity to earn a job this spring in a Miami pen that was in need of options behind top southpaw Mike Dunn.
Free Agent Notes: Rays, Desmond, Marlins, Lincecum, Gallardo, Gurriel Bros.
The Rays are a “long shot” to land Ian Desmond, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter, with the required draft pick compensation (from the qualifying offer he declined) posing a significant barrier. Tampa Bay is in “bargain shopping” mode, he adds. We’ve seen previous suggestions that Desmond could line up with the Rays, though he doesn’t make for the most obvious roster match and it’s always seemed that he’d need to take a deal far below pre-winter expectations for that to occur.
Here are some more rumblings from the open market:
- There are plenty of other teams hunting for value at this stage of the market, of course, with the Marlins eyeing pitching, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). We’ve heard that before, of course, and the club seems to be a prime destination for players seeking opportunity as the market settles.
- One possibility that has often been tied to Miami is righty Tim Lincecum, who is preparing for a showcase some time this month. Sherman tweets that his agent, Rick Thurman, will check in on the veteran’s progress tomorrow as his camp decides upon a date to call in the scouts.
- Yovani Gallardo remains the best available free agent arm, and Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets that he’s still drawing interest from the Orioles and two other teams. Cotillo had suggested (via Twitter) that the bidding would come down to the O’s, Astros, and Rockies, but Houston is out of the hunt after signing Doug Fister and he now says that Colorado appears to be on the sidelines.
- August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs argues that the White Sox may be the better fit for Gallardo, given their lack of quality and depth at the back of the rotation. It helps, of course, that the team’s first overall selection is protected. It’s worth noting that Chicago also makes a good deal of sense for the other remaining qualified free agents — Desmond and Dexter Fowler — and could in theory lower the average draft pick compensation cost by signing more than one such player. On the other hand, Chicago’s current spending commitments are already right at last year’s Opening Day mark once you account for league-minimum salaries to round out the roster. Things look slightly better in 2017, though, with John Danks and Adam LaRoche coming off of the books, so creative contract structuring could create some daylight.
- Two new names to watch in the coming months are prominent Cuban brothers Yulieski Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel, both of whom reportedly left the national team in the Dominican Republic with intentions of heading towards major league free agency. But it might be unrealistic to expect to see either appear in the 2016 campaign, Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. His colleague, John Manuel, breaks down both players, noting that the elder Yulieski is a better player than Hector Olivera and could “set off a significant bidding war.” And for more reading on the interesting pair, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains their unique place in Cuban baseball.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/5/16
Here are the day’s minor moves and outright assignments from around the league:
- The Orioles will hold onto outfielder L.J. Hoes after he cleared outright waivers, per a club announcement. Baltimore re-acquired Hoes from the Astros earlier in the offseason, but designated him about a week back to clear roster space for the addition of Efren Navarro. Hoes continues to produce at Triple-A, and is only 25 years old, but has struggled to a .237/.289/.329 batting line in 337 Major League plate appearances.
- The Brewers announced that outfielder Shane Peterson, who was designated for assignment when the team acquired Rymer Liriano from the Padres, has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Colorado Springs. The soon-to-be 28-year-old, who will be in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee, batted .259/.324/.353 in 226 plate appearances last season. He’s a nice depth option for the Brewers to hang onto, as he can play all three outfield spots and boasts an excellent .297/.383/.461 batting line over the life of 1720 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
- Veteran utilityman Don Kelly is headed back to the Marlins on a minor league pact that includes a spring invite, the club announced. Kelly’s 2015 season ended early when he required Tommy John surgery, Soon to turn 36, Kelly has spent parts of eight seasons in the majors, appearing at literally every position on the diamond (including pitcher, catcher, and DH) in his 572 total games. Kelly’s career slash sits at .232/.296/.335.
NL East Notes: Mets’ Payroll/Rotation, Nationals, Marlins
Mets GM Sandy Alderson said at yesterday’s Yoenis Cespedes press conference that the significant signing illustrates that the team is working without payroll limitations, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes. Alderson was asked if it’s possible that he can retain his entire rotation for the long haul, and while the GM unsurprisingly didn’t want to commit to anything, he did note that the increased payroll flexibility creates the possibility for some long-term deals. “I don’t want to foreclose any possibility,” said Alderson. “…I think maybe if the Cespedes signing says anything, it’s that there are no possibilities that will be dismissed out of hand strictly for financial reasons.” Alderson said the team will get a better feel for any mutual interest in extensions over the next several weeks as Spring Training looms and eventually kicks off. Of the team’s excellent rotation core, Matt Harvey is the only one that has already reached arbitration eligibility, although as a Scott Boras client, he’s perhaps an unlikely candidate to sign long-term in the first place. Next winter will see Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler reach arbitration. (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed extensions — and not just for the Mets’ rotation — at length on today’s MLBTR Podcast, for those interested in the matter.) Perhaps most notable of all of Alderson’s payroll comments, however, is the fact that he said he doesn’t anticipate returning to the club’s previous payroll levels even if Cespedes opts out after this season. New York’s payroll will be in the $140MM vicinity for the 2016 season.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- Every contract the Nationals offered to a free agent this winter contained significant deferrals due to uncertainty over the team’s MASN television dispute, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. The issue came to light most prominently after the team’s failed pursuit of Cespedes. While the Nats technically offered $110MM over five years, Svrluga spoke to sources on both sides of the negotiation who felt the Mets’ offer was clearly better. As he notes, there’s perhaps no need to look further than the first year of the deal; Cespedes landed a $10MM signing bonus and a $17.5MM salary for the 2016 season — $27.5MM up front, with the possibility to max out at $75MM over three years — but would’ve received just $7MM in 2016 with the Nationals’ offer, which contained a decade’s worth of deferrals. One person that spoke to Svrluga called the team’s $200MM offer to Jason Heyward “the most complicated deferral” that person has ever encountered, noting that it contained 16 years worth of deferred monies. Even the players they’ve managed to sign over the past two years — Max Scherzer and Daniel Murphy — come with notable deferrals. Svrluga points out that Scherzer will be owed $15MM in the first year after his deal ends, and while delaying that payment drives down the value of those funds, Svrluga is correct to note that said line item on the team’s budget could interfere with the Nats’ ability to add some secondary pieces six years down the line.
- The Marlins continue to search for veteran rotation options, but president of baseball operations Michael Hill has very little to work with remaining in the budget that was given to him by owner Jeffrey Loria, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Jackson notes many of the same names that he and Jon Heyman connected to the Marlins a couple of weeks ago: Kyle Lohse, Tim Lincecum, Alfredo Simon and Cliff Lee (though based on the picture Jackson painted in referencing the tight budget, Lee seems somewhat unlikely).
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/3/16
Here are the latest minor moves of note:
- The White Sox have re-signed righty Maikel Cleto and added outfielder Vinny Rottino, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Cleto, 26, has been hit around in his limited MLB experience but has shown the ability to miss bats. He spent last year at Triple-A, working to a 3.00 ERA in 51 frames with 10.8 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9. The 35-year-old Rottino has not seen the majors since 2012. He slashed .266/.346/.390 over 514 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2015.
- The Marlins have added first baseman Zach Lutz, per Eddy. Lutz saw only minimal time in the Mets system last year, but did briefly reach the majors with New York in the 2012-13 seasons.
- Lefty Edgar Ibarra has joined the Phillies on a minors pact, Eddy adds. The 26-year-old cracked the bigs for the first time last year, but only made two appearances. At Triple-A, he worked o a 5.43 ERA over 66 1/3 innings with 9.1 /9 vs. 4.7 BB/9.
- Fellow southpaw Chris Dwyer is going to the Orioles on his own new deal, according to the BA report. He had spent his entire career in the Royals organization, briefly making it up to the show in 2013. Dwyer was a fourth-round pick out of Clemson back in 2009.
- The Braves reached agreement with Blake Lalli, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter), and expect to utilize him as one of the team’s catchers at Triple-A. The 32-year-old has served in just that role with the Diamondbacks over the last two seasons.
Pitching Notes: Tomlin, O’Flaherty, Masterson, Marlins, Breslow
Indians righty Josh Tomlin and club GM Mike Chernoff discussed their newly-minted extension, as Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. While noting that Tomlin has some experience in the pen, Chernoff said that “he’ll have every opportunity to be in the starting rotation” this year. For the pitcher, the agreement was not just about maximizing his career earnings. “When they approached my agent about that contract, it was something that excited me and got me looking forward to this season,” he said. “I wasn’t really looking towards the future saying, ‘OK, these guys are getting this much money. I could potentially have that kind of money.’ It never entered my head. It was, ‘The Cleveland Indians wanted to give me a shot and I’m all about it.’”
Here’s the latest on the market for arms:
- Veteran lefty Eric O’Flaherty is set to throw for scouts today in Seattle, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). He’ll be looking to prove that he’s not only healthy, but has worked out some mechanical kinks, per the report. Soon to turn 31, O’Flaherty endured a tough 2015 campaign — in particular, he showed an uncharacteristic inability to avoid the free pass — and will be looking for an opportunity to bounce back in 2016.
- Righty Justin Masterson is beginning a throwing program and could be lining up a mid-March display for teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. We’ve heard previously of interest from a handful of clubs, but it seems that the one-time Indians stalwart will be looking to show off his form at full strength before signing.
- The Marlins had interest in right-hander Bronson Arroyo before he inked with the Nationals, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and the team is leaning toward other free agent options that won’t require a guaranteed deal. While Miami will still consider a rotation piece on a MLB deal, per the report, it will only do so if it’s sure that any such player is at full health. Frisaro explains that the team is looking to maximize an approximately $75MM payroll with players that will be on the field.
- Left-hander Craig Breslow is drawing interest from teams that view him as both a rotation and pen possibility, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The 35-year-old has been looking for a chance at a late-career move back to the rotation after a successful pair of starts late last year.
NL East Notes: Fernandez, Cespedes, Braves, Oberholtzer
Jose Fernandez‘s representatives at the Boras Corporation believe that their client can receive upwards of $30MM annually upon reaching the open market following the completion of the 2018 season, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. As such, the Marlins feel “resigned to losing him eventually,” though that doesn’t mean they’ll trade him anytime soon. Fernandez remains affordable and excellent for the time being, and the Marlins could hang onto him until July 2018 and still receive a sizable return in a trade. If the 2016 is “an unmitigated disaster,” Jackson speculates, the timeline for a possible Fernandez trade could be accelerated, possibly making him available next winter. From my vantage point, it seems clear that the Marlins’ hope is to contend in 2016 and 2017 at the very least, as evidenced by their signing of Wei-Yin Chen and the inclusion of a two-year opt-out in his deal. Of course, if Chen opts out of that contract post-2017 (which is certainly not a guarantee) and the team looks to be facing an uphill battle toward contention, trading Fernandez could serve as a means of quickly accelerating their rebuild. Fernandez is, after all, the type of coveted talent for which teams will pay in the form of MLB-ready talent.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- ESPN’s Mark Simon cautions Mets fans to temper their expectations for Yoenis Cespedes in 2016. While he went on an otherworldly hot streak early with the Mets, a good chunk of that damage was done on the road against weak Rockies and Phillies pitching staffs. Additionally, Cespedes’ career averages prior to 2016 were considerably lesser than his averages this past year, and it’s not reasonable to expect him to maintain his peak-level performance, especially not with the minor injuries he sustained late in the year. Simon notes the projections at Fangraphs boosted the Mets’ win total by two after signing Cespedes. While some will argue that not to be a large enough differentiation, the point Simon seeks to get across is not a specific number of wins which Cespedes will provide but rather that the difference probably won’t be as striking as it was upon his acquisition last July.
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman conducted a Q&A with Braves GM John Coppolella, during which Coppolella discussed a number of the moves made in the offseason. Coppolella told Bowman that the biggest surprises of the offseason, to him, were the trades of Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller. “We didn’t want to trade either player, but we also felt that the talent we received back in those deals made it too good to pass up those opportunities,” said Coppolella. Additionally, the GM discussed the importance of stockpiling young talent in light of the “hyperinflation” of the free-agent market, noting that this offseason illustrated clearly that most teams cannot simply buy a considerable amount of talent in free agency.
- Left-hander Brett Oberholtzer, one of five pitchers sent from the Astros to the Phillies in the Ken Giles trade, tells CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury that the call notifying him of the trade was a “great moment.” Oberholtzer, a Delaware native and lifelong Phillies fan, spoke highly of his time in the Astros and Braves organizations but expressed clear excitement to be joining the team he grew up watching both on TV and in person. In examining Oberholtzer’s place on the roster, Salisbury notes that the lefty is out of minor league options, thus making him a near lock for the 25-man roster. However, with Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff all set in the rotation, Oberholtzer will compete with former Astros teammate Vincent Velasquez (also a part of the Giles swap) for the final rotation spot. Oberholtzer tells Salisbury that he’s versatile and can pitch in either a relief or starting role, but the rotation is his preference.
West Notes: Rosario, Lincecum, Blackmon, Athletics
The Astros organization is mourning the loss of 20-year-old pitcher Jose Rosario, who died in a motorcycle accident yesterday evening in his native Dominican Republic. Rosario pitched in the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League last year. The organization’s international director Oz Ocampo praised Rosario as “a beloved member of the Astros Latin American program.” Ocampo continued: “He will be remembered as a long, lanky-framed pitcher with tremendous ability, an outgoing personality and an ever-positive disposition. He was a true student of the game and was constantly looking to learn and improve his abilities. He was also a supportive teammate, as he made it a point to encourage his fellow Astros and deliver that message with a smile on his face. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Rosario family.” We here at MLBTR join in that message.
Here are the latest notes from the game’s western divisions:
- The Padres are interested in free agent righty Tim Lincecum, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. He notes that the Marlins also are continuing to look at the former Giants star, along with other teams, as he readies for a planned February showcase after undergoing hip surgery last year.
- Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon says he was surprised that the team decided to bring in yet another left-handed outfield bat in Gerardo Parra, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. “I was little perplexed at first,” said Blackmon. “Because I didn’t really see it coming. Going into the offseason, I didn’t know that was in play, really. But after looking at it, he’s a great player. I’ve played against him, seen him play. He’s got one of the best arms in the league. He can only make our team better.” Blackmon, of course, continues to draw trade chatter, all the more so after the Parra signing, but he said he’s not bothered by the rumors — while rightly noting that it’s always “good to be relevant.”
- Athletics closer Sean Doolittle says he is ready to go for spring camp without any restrictions after dealing with shoulder issues last year, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. “I promised I wouldn’t tell anybody I’m in the best shape of my life because I’ll never be 21 again,” said Doolittle. “But I think this is the most important offseason of my career, and I’ve been going about it with that mentality.”
- Meanwhile, the Athletics aren’t yet sure what to expect from outfielder Coco Crisp, Slusser adds. Though he’s beginning to swing the bat, it isn’t yet clear how he’ll bounce back from an injury-plagued 2015. DH Billy Butler is another question mark, but he says he’s “got a lot left in the tank,” as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Butler will look to build upon a solid final month in an otherwise forgettable season. “I’m in good shape. I’m strong. Everything’s great,” he said. “I know what the expectations are, so let’s go out there and do it. I’ve prepared this winter to do that.”
- It sounds like extension talks could soon take place between the Athletics and outfielder Josh Reddick, and GM David Forst said that the team intends to try to find ground for a multi-year deal, as SB Nation’s Jeremy Koo writes. Oakland “will make an effort at” a deal, said Forst. He added that Reedick has “kind of become the face of our team; somewhat the drive and energy of the club.”
Arroyo Has Minor League Offer From Nats; Four Other Teams Interested
Veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo has a minor league offer on the table from the Nationals and is receiving interest from four other clubs, including the Reds, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In addition to that pair of teams, the Marlins, Pirates and Padres all have interest, though the interest of those three clubs does not appear to be as serious as the interest in Cincinnati and D.C. Sheldon tweeted earlier today that the Reds could make an offer soon, and in his column he notes that Arroyo expects to make a decision in the near future.
Arroyo tells Sheldon that he threw a bullpen session with Reds catching coach Mike Stefanski on Friday this past week. Sheldon adds that while the Reds didn’t have other personnel present to watch the session, they’ve received video and are determining a course of action. Arroyo sounds like his hope is to return to the Reds, though he doesn’t explicitly state that. He does, however, say that he hopes the Reds make an offer today, and he also adds: “I wanted to give the Reds every opportunity to keep me. Bryan Price has told me he’d love to have me in their locker room. I think it benefits both sides. It’s an opportunity for me to come into a less-stressed situation after a surgery and help young guys on the staff. If we can get something that’s in the ballpark [financially], I’d be happy.”
It’s unclear if Cincinnati, or any team, would be comfortable guaranteeing Arroyo a spot on the 40-man roster, though a minor league deal with a decent base salary and plenty of incentives could easily afford Arroyo several million dollars by season’s end if he remains healthy and proves capable of replicating anything close to his previous levels of performance. Arroyo does tell Sheldon that his arm feels 100 percent, though he admits that it took a full 16 months to get to that point, and he’s also frank in stating that he’s uncertain what to expect in terms of workload. “I’d be lying if I said I knew I could throw 200 innings with this arm,” said Arroyo. “I just don’t know.”
Arroyo, 39 next month, spent the 2006-13 seasons in a Reds uniform, pitching 199 innings or more in each of those eight campaigns. In total, he amassed a 4.05 ERA in 1690 1/3 innings, averaging 5.9 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2014 and missed the entire 2015 season as he worked his way back. The Nationals currently project to have a rotation consisting of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark, while Cincinnati’s rotation is far more in flux. Homer Bailey is recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, while Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias seem like easy calls for starting gigs. Beyond that, Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, John Moscot and Michael Lorenzen will compete for jobs in the rotation. Top prospect Robert Stephenson could eventually join that mix as well, though he has just 55 2/3 innings above the Double-A level.
Clearly, the Nats offer a better shot at contending than do the rebuilding Reds, and Washington can also offer a reunion with Arroyo’s former manager, Dusty Baker. However, Arroyo knows the Cincinnati organization quite well and has a clearer path to a rotation spot there. Additionally, as Sheldon notes, Arroyo’s girlfriend lives in Cincinnati, adding to the appeal for him on a personal level. The other three clubs, of course, have their merits as well, but they’re characterized more as secondary considerations than prime suitors by Sheldon for the time being.