Sal Frelick Diagnosed With Bone Bruise In Hip
4:38pm: Frelick’s MRI revealed a bone bruise, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Per McCalvy, the Brewers are “optimistic” that Frelick avoided structural damage and will not make a roster move yet in case he recovers more quickly than expected. With that being said, it seems as though the Brewers currently expect the outfielder to miss at least the beginning of the playoffs.
10:14am: Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick will undergo an MRI today after he left Friday’s game with a left hip injury. While chasing a foul ball in the third inning of Milwaukee’s 8-4 win over the Mets, Frelick slammed into the wall down the right field line, specifically landing within a cutout area of the otherwise padded wall. Frelick was in a lot of discomfort as he gingerly left the field.
X-rays on Frelick’s hip “were inconclusive,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) following the game. An MRI has been scheduled for this morning to determine the extent of Frelick’s injury, or what his status could be as the Brewers prepare for the start of the NL wild card series on Tuesday.
The 15th overall pick of the 2021 draft, Frelick made his MLB debut last season and moved into an everyday role this year, primarily as the Brewers’ regular right fielder. Frelick has also logged 184 innings in left field and 168 innings in center, but his 776 innings in right field have cemented him as one of the better defensive outfielders in all of baseball. No matter the metric, Frelick’s work in right field has been lauded by Defensive Runs Saved (+16), UZR/150 (16.6) and Outs Above Average (+6).
This excellent glovework has kept Frelick in the lineup despite a lack of production at the plate. While Frelick makes a lot of contact, he is near the bottom of the league in hard contact and barrel rate, and he has only an 86 wRC+ from a slash line of .259/.320/.335 over 524 plate appearances. Stealing 18 bases in 21 attempts has boosted Frelick’s offensive value to some extent, and naturally it isn’t unusual for a second-year player to struggle in his first extended look at big league pitching.
Milwaukee claimed the NL Central title even without one major force in their outfield, as Christian Yelich underwent season-ending back surgery in August. Star rookie Jackson Chourio has settled into a groove as the everyday left fielder, so if Frelick is unavailable for the NLWCS, the likeliest scenario would see Chourio in left field, Blake Perkins in center, and Garrett Mitchell in right. Jake Bauers and utilitymen Andruw Monasterio and Isaac Collins provide some further depth, plus the likes of Brewer Hicklen or Vinny Capra could be called up from the minors.
Cubs Claim Enoli Paredes
The Cubs have claimed right-hander Enoli Paredes off waivers from the Brewers, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X. The righty had been designated for assignment by Milwaukee last week. The Cubs had a 40-man vacancy after righty Shawn Armstrong was designated for assignment last week and won’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard.
Paredes, 28, started the year with the Brewers on a minor league deal. He kicked things off with a complete lights-out performance in Triple-A. He tossed 20 2/3 innings over 18 appearances for Nashville with a 1.31 earned run average. He walked a fairly high 11% of batters faced but also struck out 41.5% of opponents and kept 56.8% of balls in play on the ground.
He was added to the big league roster in May and has had mixed results since. Forearm inflammation sent him to the injured list for about two months from July to September. Around that, he made 17 appearances for the Brewers with a 1.74 ERA. Though that number looks nice, his 16.7% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate were subpar, with his 44.8% ground ball rate around average. A tiny .224 batting average on balls in play and 84% strand rate were helping him out, which is why his 3.55 FIP and 4.95 SIERA aren’t nearly as nice as his SIERA.
The Brewers decided to quit while they were ahead and move on. Since Paredes exhausted his option years while with the Astros earlier in his career, they had to remove him from the 40-man entirely to get him off the active roster.
The Cubs are eliminated from the postseason picture this year and have presumably grabbed Paredes as a long-term play, looking at his early Triple-A results and window of control. He has just over two years of major league service time and still won’t be arbitration eligible by this winter. Though he is out of options, he can be retained for four more seasons if he manages to hang onto his roster spot.
Brewers Designate Enoli Paredes For Assignment
The Brewers announced that right-hander Kevin Herget has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville. fellow righty Enoli Paredes has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.
Paredes, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in the offseason. He started the year with 18 strong Triple-A appearances, allowing 1.31 earned runs per nine innings. His 11% walk rate in that time was high but he struck out a huge 41.5% of batters faced and also got grounders on 56.8% of balls in play, earning himself a call-up to the big leagues.
Since then, the surface level results have been good, though with less impressive stuff under the hood. He spent about two months on the injured list from early July to the middle of September but has tossed 20 2/3 big league innings around that. The 1.74 ERA looks impressive but his 16.7% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate are both subpar, while his 44.8% ground ball rate is right around league average. He’s been helped by a .224 batting average on balls in play and 84% strand rate, which is why his 3.56 FIP and 4.95 SIERA are both far higher than his ERA.
It seems the Brewers didn’t expect him to maintain his run prevention and bumped him off the roster. He’s out of options, so they had to cut him from the 40-man entirely. He won’t have much short-term appeal on the waiver wire since he won’t be postseason eligible with any acquiring club.
Paredes can be retained for four seasons beyond this one. Perhaps some club will be intrigued by his dominant form in the minors earlier this year and put in a claim with long-term goals. However, his major league results this year line up with his longer track record. He pitched for the Astros from 2020 to 2022, logging 32 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, 19.7% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. If he were to go unclaimed, he could elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.
NL Notes: Lindor, Blackburn, Barnes, Payamps
After exiting early on Friday and sitting out on Saturday, Mets superstar Francisco Lindor was pulled in the second inning of today’s series finale against the Phillies. Back discomfort has been a problem for the NL MVP candidate all weekend, and as it turns out, significantly longer. Lindor told reporters, including Tim Britton of The Athletic, that he has been playing through back pain for the past two weeks. Ever since he further irritated the injury on Friday, it has become too difficult to ignore.
Lindor will go for an MRI tomorrow, after which the Mets will have a better sense of the severity of his condition. Needless to say, they’ll be hoping it’s nothing serious and the star shortstop can get back on the field as soon as possible. The Mets are in a dead heat with the Braves in the race to secure the third and final NL Wild Card berth.
In further injury news out of Queens, starting pitcher Paul Blackburn is dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back (per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). President of baseball operations David Stearns suggests the injury isn’t quite as bad as it might sound, but nonetheless, the team does not know when Blackburn will be able to return. The right-hander has not pitched since August 23. Thankfully for the Mets, their pitching staff, and particularly their starting rotation, has been a strength as of late. Their starters rank third in MLB with a 2.32 ERA since Blackburn landed on the IL. Meanwhile, Blackburn had a 5.18 ERA in five starts after joining the Mets at the trade deadline.
More from around the National League:
- Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says he would be “shocked” if catcher Austin Barnes doesn’t wind up on the injured list tomorrow, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The veteran backstop got hit by a foul ball on his left big toe and was forced to make an early exit from today’s game against the Braves. Barnes spent time on the IL with a fracture in the same toe in August, and while Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic points out that today’s contusion is in a “different spot,” it’s quite possible Barnes re-aggravated his old injury. Ardaya notes that Hunter Feduccia – one of four catchers on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster – is already on his way to join the big league club.
- Brewers reliever Joel Payamps felt discomfort in his forearm during his appearance today against the Diamondbacks, manager Pat Murphy told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). The right-hander recorded one out in the bottom of the seventh inning and did not return for the eighth. The Brewers have not yet provided any further details about Payamps, who has been one of the team’s most trusted and dependable relievers over the past two seasons. Across 130 games with Milwaukee, he has a 2.90 ERA and a 3.45 SIERA in 124 innings pitched. He has not looked quite as sharp in 2024 as he did the year before. Still, his 3.38 ERA and 3.73 SIERA are respectable numbers, while his six saves, 18 holds, and high average leverage index are proof that the Brewers continue to rely on him in plenty of important spots.
NL Central Notes: Hudson, Steele, Cruz
For most of the 2024 season, Bryan Hudson was one of the most effective relievers in the major leagues. Out of 58 relievers who have thrown at least 60 innings this year, his 1.73 ERA ranks fifth. However, since September 3, Hudson has been pitching not for the Milwaukee Brewers but for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds.
According to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers decided to option Hudson to Triple-A due to concerns about his velocity and durability. The left-hander suffered a minor oblique strain at the of July and came back in mid-August. While his surface-level numbers remained impressive upon his return (2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 IP), his velocity was noticeably lower on all three of his pitches. What’s more, his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate rose, and his 4.38 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.98 SIERA pre-injury.
Thus, with the Brewers sitting comfortably atop the NL Central standings, it made sense to send Hudson to the minors, where he could rest up and work on his stuff away from the pressure of the show. He has made just two outings so far for the Sounds, tossing a couple of scoreless innings with four strikeouts, two hits, and no walks allowed. His fastball velocity is still down compared to where it was earlier in the season, but it’s been a little better than it was in his last few outings before his demotion. Perhaps more importantly, his fastball velocity was higher in his second Triple-A outing this month than it was in his first.
It’s unclear if the Brewers are planning to recall Hudson anytime soon, but manager Pat Murphy suggested the 27-year-old will be back in Milwaukee eventually. As Hogg reports, Murphy is “pleased” with what Hudson has accomplished in Nashville, and there’s nothing more he needs to prove. The skipper didn’t provide a timeline for Hudson to get back in the Brewers’ bullpen, but he implied that a return was on the horizon, saying “I think you’ll see him again.”
The Nashville Sounds’ season ends next Sunday. If the Brewers are hoping to have Hudson for the postseason, it would make sense to call him up once the Triple-A campaign comes to a close. That would give him a week to reacclimate to big league competition before October.
More from around the NL Central:
- After completing a 40-pitch bullpen session yesterday, Cubs starter Justin Steele described it as “a really good day” (per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). The All-Star hurler landed on the injured list earlier this month with left elbow tendinitis, but he says he is no longer feeling any symptoms of the injury (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). As Lee adds, the Cubs still need to monitor Steele’s recovery over the next few days, but as long as he remains healthy, he should be able to return sometime soon, potentially for the four-game series against the Nationals at the end of this coming week. Sitting 5.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot, the Cubs are still clinging onto their slim playoff hopes. This late in the season, their fate is probably out of their hands, but it certainly won’t hurt to have their co-ace back for a couple more turns through the rotation.
- Oneil Cruz exited the Pirates game this afternoon with discomfort in his left ankle, manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). He suffered the injury slipping in the outfield. The 25-year-old recently began playing center field for the first time in his professional career, and it will surely take him some time to get used to the new position. Cruz has started 13 games in center over the past three weeks, and he already has two errors and -3 defensive runs saved. Thankfully for Cruz and the Pirates, this injury doesn’t appear particularly serious. Indeed, he was able to stay in the game initially, but, as Shelton puts it, the ankle later “stiffened up.” Cruz is day-to-day for now, but the Pirates certainly aren’t going to take any chances with the young star over the final two weeks of another lost season.
Nori Aoki To Retire At NPB Season’s End
Former big league outfielder and current member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows Nori Aoki is set to retire following the 2024 campaign, per an announcement from the Swallows yesterday (hat tip to The Yomiuri Shimbun). Aoki, 42, spent parts of six seasons in the majors in addition to a lengthy career in Japan.
Aoki’s career first began with the Swallows back in 2004 when he debuted at the age of 22. He made it into just ten games with Yakult that year, going 3-for-15 at the plate with a walk, a stolen base, and six strikeouts. That tiny sample size did nothing to suggest what Aoki would go on to do in his first full season with the club, however, as he slashed an excellent .344/.387/.417 in 144 games during the 2005 season, becoming just the second player in NPB history (after Ichiro Suzuki) to collect 200 hits in a single season.
He improved to even greater heights throughout his mid-20s, slashing 15-to-20 homer power to go along with fantastic contact and baserunning skills. As his plate discpline developed, he even began to walk more than he struck out, leading to a dominant stretch of seasons from 2007 to 2010 where he walked at a 10.6% clip against a minuscule 9.8% strikeout rate in addition to his aforementioned solid power and impressive base-stealing abilities, and even crossed the 200-hit barrier for a second time in 2010 to become the only NPB player in history to achieve the feat twice.
Given the excellence he had demonstrated throughout his time with the Swallows, it was hardly a surprise when he was quickly snapped up by the Brewers on a two-year deal after being posted for major league clubs prior to the 2012 season. In Milwaukee, Aoki was a slightly above average hitter with a solid .287/.355/.399 slash line. While he only hit a combined 18 home runs over his two seasons with the Brewers, he swiped 50 bags while hitting 57 doubles and 7 triples in that same period. That was a strong enough performance for Milwaukee brass to pick up Aoki’s club option for the 2014 season, but he did not last the offseason with the club and was swapped to the Royals in a deal that brought lefty Will Smith to the Brewers.
After departing the Brewers, Aoki wouldn’t stick around with an MLB club for more than a season at the time for the rest of his time in stateside ball. After acting as the regular right fielder in Kansas City for the club’s AL pennant-winning 2014 season, Aoki departed in free agency to sign with the Giants but was limited to just 93 games when he suffered a broken leg and a concussion in two separate hit-by-pitch incidents. Aoki then signed a one-year deal with the Mariners in 2016 but began to show some signs of decline, notably stealing only seven bases in sixteen attempts with the worst strikeout and walk numbers of his MLB career, though he did display his best power numbers since his rookie 2012 campaign with the Brewers.
Aoki’s final season in the big leagues came back in 2017 and saw him change uniforms several times. The veteran outfielder was claimed off waivers from the Mariners by the Astros during the 2016-17 offseason. Aoki struggled somewhat through 70 games with Houston, however, and ended up traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline that year alongside Teoscar Hernandez in a deal that brought Francisco Liriano to Houston. Aoki managed to catch fire down the stretch, however, and while his playing time was further split between the Blue Jays and Mets over the final two months of the season he slashed .281/.294/.594 for Toronto in August before slashing .284/.371/.373 in Queens that September.
Following the end of his MLB career, Aoki returned home to the Swallows and has played for the club in each of the past seven seasons. Now 42, the veteran is the league’s oldest active player and has collected more than 7,000 plate appearances with a .313/.392/.445 slash line in 1,713 NPB games. Between NPB and MLB play, Aoki has stepped up to the plate more than 10,000 times with 2,765 hits, 470 doubles, 51 triples, 179 homers and 279 stolen bases. We at MLBTR congratulate Aoki on a fine career and wish him all the best in his post-playing pursuits.
Brewers Activate Enoli Paredes From 60-Day IL
The Brewers reinstated reliever Enoli Paredes from the 60-day injured list. He rejoins the bullpen for tonight’s game in San Francisco. Milwaukee optioned Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move. To open a 40-man roster spot, the Brewers transferred southpaw Rob Zastryzny to the 60-day IL.
Paredes has been down since early July on account of forearm inflammation. Milwaukee moved the righty to the 60-day IL when they activated DL Hall last month. Paredes, who signed a minor league deal last November, has gotten good results in 14 appearances since the Brewers selected his contract in May. He’s allowed just two runs through 16 2/3 innings, although his 12:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t particularly encouraging.
That’s broadly in line with Paredes’ career work. He pitched with the Astros between 2020-22 and managed a decent 3.90 earned run average despite huge walk tallies. Paredes has been utterly dominant in Triple-A this season, striking out nearly 40% of opponents with a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. He’s out of options, so the Brewers can’t send him back to Nashville without running him through waivers.
Zastryzny has been out since July 25 with elbow tendinitis. The injury cropped back up when he tried to start a rehab assignment last month. Today’s transfer officially rules Zastryzny out until the final week of the regular season. It’s not clear if he’ll be healthy enough to return this year. Working mostly as an opener, the lefty has logged 7 2/3 frames of one-run ball since Milwaukee called him up at the end of June.
Brewers Select Isaac Collins
The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Isaac Collins. In corresponding moves, outfielder Brewer Hicklen was optioned to Triple-A and outfielder Christian Yelich was transferred to the 60-day injured list.
Collins, 27, was a ninth-round pick by the Rockies back in 2019 and has yet to make his major league debut. The Brewers plucked him from Colorado in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, and he’s spent the past two seasons in the upper levels of Milwaukee’s minor league system. He’s performed well in his first full season at Triple-A this year, with a .273/.386/.475 slash line in 500 trips to the plate. He’s supplemented that solid production at the plate with impressive baserunning (24 steals in 29 attempts) and the versatility to play second base, third base, and all over the outfield.
He’ll now get the opportunity to prove himself at the big league level with the Brewers as the regular season winds down. Milwaukee has little to worry about in terms of making the playoffs, as their ten-game lead over the Cubs and Cardinals is all but insurmountable at this point, though the club still does have something to play for as they’re three games back of both the Phillies and Dodgers for a bye through the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Even so, the Brewers’ cushion in the NL Central race and September’s expanded 28-man rosters provides the club with an opportunity to get potential future contributors exposure at the big league level while also shoring up their overall depth.
Making way for Collins on the club’s roster is Hicklen. The 28-year-old outfielder had a brief cup of coffee with the Royals in the majors back in 2022 but his time with the Brewers this year has been his second foray into major league action. Hicklen’s .247/.364/.484 slash line at the Triple-A level isn’t too dissimilar from that of Collins, and his slightly less valuable offense is more or less outweighed by a fantastic 42-for-47 record on the basepaths this year at Triple-A. That said, replacing Hicklen on the roster with Collins offers the Brewers the opportunity to roster a hitter with a similar skillset who can back up the infield alongside Andruw Monasterio as well as filling in around the outfield when necessary.
As for Yelich, his placement on the 60-day IL is hardly a surprise given the fact that his season came to an end when he underwent back surgery last month. The 32-year-old enjoyed his best offensive season in years when healthy enough to take the field this year, slashing .315/.406/.504 in 73 games while stealing 21 bases in 22 attempts. He’s currently expected to be ready to return to the middle of the club’s lineup in time for the 2025 season.
A’s Designate Janson Junk For Assignment
The A’s have designated right-hander Janson Junk for assignment and recalled left-hander Brady Basso from Triple-A Las Vegas, the team announced Thursday.
Junk was claimed off waivers just six days ago. He made his first and only appearance for Oakland last night in a nightmare outing wherein he faced eight batters and allowed them all to reach base (six hits, two walks). Junk was charged with seven earned runs and did not record an out.
Disastrous as that outing was, Junk has been quite effective in Triple-A this season and had a nice year at that level with the Brewers in 2023. He’s pitched 50 innings with a 3.60 earned run average for the Triple-A affiliates of the Brewers and Astros this season, and last year the now-28-year-old righty logged 140 innings with a 4.18 ERA, 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate for Milwaukee’s top affiliate in Nashville. Junk’s calamitous outing with the A’s sent his career ERA in 40 major league innings careening from 5.18 to 6.75. He’s been far better in Triple-A, with 266 innings of 4.26 ERA ball and consistently strong walk rates.
Basso, 26, made his big league debut earlier this season and tossed 3 1/3 innings. The former 16th-round pick breezed through six Double-A starts this year (2.84 ERA, 30.5 K%, 2.9 BB%) and has now appeared in 16 Triple-A games (12 starts). In 67 2/3 innings in Vegas, he’s logged a 5.19 ERA while fanning 26.4% of his opponents against a 7.5% walk rate.
The Brewers’ Rotation Is Holding Up
The Brewers have the best run differential in MLB. Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 139 runs, putting them 14 runs clear of the second-place Yankees’ +125 gap. Milwaukee is coasting to another division title and sit half a game behind the Phillies for the #2 seed in the National League, which would give them a first-round bye in the postseason.
It’s not a shock that the Brewers are good. They’ve proven time and again they’re capable of outperforming a middling payroll to compete for a playoff spot. Yet few would’ve predicted they’d be this good: 24 games over .500 with the largest division lead in baseball. Milwaukee’s previous success was built largely around the three-headed rotation monster of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Between the Burnes trade and Woodruff’s shoulder injury, they’ve been forced to make do with a far less established rotation. Milwaukee’s rotation might not have the firepower it once did, yet it has held all the same.
Brewers starters are 12th in the majors with a 3.92 earned run average. That’s already an achievement considering the challenges of pitching at Miller Park, and they’ve been even better lately. Since the trade deadline, only the Astros and Tigers have a lower rotation ERA than Milwaukee does. Detroit’s mark is skewed by frequent use of openers; Tiger “starters” have an MLB-low 112 1/3 innings since the end of July. Milwaukee’s starters have tied for the third-most innings over that stretch (174 2/3), narrowly behind Houston and the Mets. For the past month and change, the Astros and Brewers have had the most valuable rotations in the league.
Not coincidentally, they were two of the league’s best teams last month. While Houston’s rotation turnaround has been a big story in its own right, Milwaukee’s rotation performance is probably more surprising. The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to take a season-opening rotation spot; he made one start, got hurt, and was eventually moved at the deadline. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser each blew out early in the season. Joe Ross and DL Hall each spent multiple months on the injured list.
The Brewers have given multiple starts to 13 different pitchers this year (15 if one includes the opener appearances by Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny). They’ve only had three pitchers top 50 innings working from the rotation in a Milwaukee uniform. Still, between a pair of unexpected contributors and two buy-low deadline pickups, they’re trending towards October with a settled starting five.
Peralta has headlined the group. He’s the team leader in starts (28) and innings (153 2/3). Peralta carries a 3.75 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout rate. While he can battle the home run ball at times, Peralta is one of the better pitchers in the league. He was supposed to deliver at the front of the rotation, and he has.
The pitchers coming after Peralta entered the year with a lot less fanfare. Colin Rea logged 124 2/3 innings over 26 appearances a year ago. He posted a 4.55 ERA with middling peripherals. When Milwaukee brought him back on a $4.5MM deal on November 2, the most notable aspect of the deal seemed to be its timing — a few days before the official opening of free agency. Rea secured a spot in the Opening Day rotation, likely as the #5 arm.
Through four months, Rea ranks narrowly behind Peralta for second on the team in innings. He has tossed a career-high 146 frames with a solid 3.70 ERA. His 8% swinging strike rate and 19.4% strikeout percentage still suggest he’s more of a back-end arm, but Rea has thus far avoided any regression in terms of run prevention. He has an ERA between 3.25 and 4.22 in every month of the season, welcome consistency for a rotation that has dealt with significant injuries.
Rea has been a surprisingly key contributor, though he at least started the year on the MLB roster. That wasn’t the case for Tobias Myers, who has gone from minor league signee to #3 starter. The 26-year-old righty was a prospect of some regard early in his career, performing well through Double-A. Cleveland acquired Myers in a regrettable trade that sent future top prospect Junior Caminero to the Rays. Triple-A hitters obliterated him in 2022, leading multiple teams to cut him loose without giving him a look at the big league level.
Myers signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee going into 2023. He spent most of the season in Double-A, where he racked up huge strikeout totals against generally younger opposition. Myers never got himself back on the prospect radar, but he earned a look from the Brewers in mid-April when the rotation was floundering.
Shuttled on and off the active roster through the end of May, Myers had a 5.40 ERA in seven appearances. That’s the kind of production expected from a minor league signee pressed into action. As recently as a few months ago, it wasn’t clear if the Brewers would keep him on the roster all season. Gasser’s injury in early June gave Myers another shot. He has seized it.
Over his past 15 starts, the rookie owns a 2.27 ERA while working nearly six innings per appearance. He has a roughly average 21.1% strikeout rate and is limiting walks to a 6.3% clip. Myers has unquestionably been aided by a meager .264 average on balls in play. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace. Yet even with some level of inevitable regression, Myers looks like a polished strike-thrower who fits in the middle of a rotation. Were it not for an absolutely loaded field in the National League this year, Myers might have gotten some Rookie of the Year attention.
Effective as Rea and Myers had been early in the summer, Milwaukee’s front office understandably viewed the rotation as their priority at the deadline. Myers was early into what has become a three-month stretch of excellent play. Rea’s workload was a question mark. Milwaukee made one of the first pickups of note early in July, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. The night before the deadline, they flipped Junis and young outfielder Joey Wiemer (who’d been mostly squeezed out with the Brewers) to the Reds for Frankie Montas.
Both acquisitions were rebound hopefuls. Civale and Montas had each looked like upper mid-rotation arms at their best, but they’d fallen on harder times. Both pitchers had an ERA narrowly above 5.00 with their previous teams. They’re each allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in Milwaukee. Civale has a 3.72 mark across 48 1/3 innings as a Brewer. Montas carries a 3.82 ERA in 33 frames following the trade.
Civale’s underlying performance isn’t dramatically different from where it’d been in Tampa Bay. His strikeout and walk profile has gone in the wrong direction. He’s getting more ground-balls with the Brew Crew — somewhat diminishing the home run issues that really plagued him with the Rays — but he’s giving up more contact than ever before. As with Rea and Myers, the change is largely about his ball in play results. Opponents hit .312 on balls in play off Civale with the Rays; that’s down to .257 since the trade.
Montas has shown more obvious signs of improvement. His strikeout rate with the Reds sat a below-average 19%. It’s up to 22.7% in his brief stint in Milwaukee. His fastball velocity has climbed from the 94-95 range to sit more comfortably above 96 MPH this month. Montas’ velocity was steadily building throughout the year in Cincinnati, so perhaps he’d have found this level regardless of where he was traded. Even if that’s the case, the Brewers deserve credit for identifying him as a buy-low target.
All of a sudden, manager Pat Murphy has a number of options he can choose from in constructing a playoff rotation. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central. They’ll at least play in a three-game Wild Card set. Winning that (or tracking down one of the Dodgers or Phillies for a bye) would guarantee at least a five-game Division Series.
Peralta is the obvious call to pitch the first game. Myers’ recent form probably gives him a leg up as a Game 2 starter, though that could be determined by how well he finishes the regular season. Montas may not be all the way back to the peak he showed with the A’s, but he’s pitching well enough to be a fine choice for either Game 2 or 3. That’d likely leave Murphy to choose between Civale and Rea for a potential fourth game, perhaps in tandem with a multi-inning relief appearance from Hall.
It still may not be an elite starting staff, but it’s hardly a liability. A shorter series will allow Murphy to leverage his excellent relief group more heavily. Late in close games, the scales should tip in Milwaukee’s favor. The rotation now looks strong enough to get them there.