Quick Hits: Draft, White Sox, Rodriguez, Nationals
On this date nine years ago, Curt Schilling struck out his 300th batter of the season, joining Randy Johnson to become the first teammates to each strike 300 hitters out in the same season. Here are the latest links from around MLB…
- Conor Glassey of Baseball America took an early look at the top 50 prospects for the 2012 draft (subs. req'd). Stanford right-hander Mark Appel tops the list, and Glassey says he has "Justin Verlander upside."
- Ozzie Guillen will decide his own fate, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter). He can return to the White Sox if he wants to and if not the Marlins would love to have him.
- One executive told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that Francisco Rodriguez’s public comments about his displeasure setting up aren’t going to help him in free agency. ”Everybody is going to think he is a me-first guy, totally selfish,” the person said. “Why would you say those things right now?"
- Bill Price of the New York Daily News wonders if the Mets might be better off without Jose Reyes and David Wright.
- GM Mike Rizzo told the Philadelphia Daily News that the Nationals feel that they're going in the right direction. "Our young players are getting opportunities and we're progressing. So I think it kind of shows not only our fan base, but the organization itself that we are improving," Rizzo said.
- Paul Hagen of the Daily News wonders if Ryne Sandberg could end up managing in the Major Leagues next year.
No Six Or Seven-Year Deals For Blue Jays
The last time the Blue Jays signed a player to a seven-year deal, it didn’t work nearly as well as expected. Vernon Wells, who agreed to a seven-year, $126MM contract with the club in 2006, now plays in Anaheim and no one on the Blue Jays has anything more than a five-year deal. That’s not about to change, since president Paul Beeston won’t approve six or seven-year deals, according to Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail.
Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, the offseason’s top free agents and the favorite targets of many would-be GMs in the stands at Rogers Centre, have set themselves up for six, seven or eight-year deals in free agency. Though Adam Lind has posted a sub-.300 on-base percentage in successive seasons, the Blue Jays remain hesitant to spend big on the open market.
“When we look at free agents, we better believe those guys are a clear upgrade over what we have internally,” Alex Anthopoulos told Blair.
The GM acknowledges that the 75-74 Blue Jays have some “pretty glaring” issues to address over the winter. However, the Blue Jays say they’re happier with the talent on the current edition of the team than they were this time last year.
When I examined the market for Pujols and Fielder last week, I suggested they were possible fits in Toronto.
NL Central Notes: Berkman, Cards, Myers, Pagnozzi
Some news from the NL Central…
- Lance Berkman could be targeted by the Brewers as a replacement for Prince Fielder, opines Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (Twitter link). I'd suspect that Berkman will get a lot of interest from teams that miss out on Fielder and Albert Pujols this winter.
- Berkman, Rafael Furcal and, of course, Pujols are the biggest question marks for the Cardinals heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com's Matthew Leach, but overall, Leach thinks the 2012 Cards will look much like the 2011 team. Both Leach and Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch indicate that the Cardinals' bullpen is stable, but the team could add another left-handed reliever. Gordon notes that Arthur Rhodes wants to return to St. Louis next year.
- Brett Myers could be trade bait after the season, but MLB.com's Brian McTaggart thinks the Astros could do worse than holding onto Myers to eat innings and provide a veteran presence in the rotation. McTaggart also discusses the Astros' proposed shift to the American League and the Carlos Lee/Brett Wallace first base situation as part of this fan mailbag.
- Chip Bailey of the Houston Chronicle suggests a few areas where the young Astros could look to add veteran parts for next season.
- The Pirates claimed catcher Matt Pagnozzi off waivers from the Rockies yesterday, but Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets that the Bucs originally tried to get Pagnozzi in June before instead acquiring Michael McKenry from Boston. Biertempfel also says the Pirates are looking at Pagnozzi just as a possible backup in 2012, not as a starter (Twitter link).
- With the Brewers so close to the playoffs, Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel wonders why Fielder and Francisco Rodriguez chose to discuss their likely departure and displeasure with not closing games, respectively.
- Ben Nicholson-Smith delivered another set of NL Central news items earlier today on MLBTR.
NL Central Notes: Fielder, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates
The Brewers have a 99.8% chance of going to the postseason and the Cardinals have a 4.5% chance of advancing, according to Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds report. Meanwhile, the Astros, Cubs and Pirates are setting themselves up for top ten picks in next year's draft. Here's the latest from the NL Central…
- Prince Fielder told Colin Fly of the AP that nothing has changed regarding his status with the Brewers (link via the Miami Herald). Fielder told TBS that this is probably his last season with the Brewers, but many people around the game have been saying that for over a year now.
- Casey Coleman has two starts remaining to remind the Cubs what he's capable of heading into 2012, Gordon Wittenmyer writes at the Chicago Sun-Times.
- The Cardinals’ biggest trade of the summer paid off in last night’s win against the Pirates, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. They obtained 24 outs from Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski, the trio of pitchers GM John Mozeliak obtained for Colby Rasmus.
- The Pirates secured another losing season with the loss and Bill Brink of Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sums up Pittsburgh's up-and-down year nicely: "They traveled to the same destination for the 19th year in a row, but this season, the Pirates took the scenic route."
Prince Fielder: ’11 ‘Probably’ Last Year With Brewers
It's not the first time someone has suggested the Brewers might soon be looking for a new first baseman. But it's the clearest indication yet that Prince Fielder will leave Milwaukee this offseason. The free agent-to-be himself publicly conceded that this is likely his final season with the Brewers in an interview with TBS (link at SI.com).
"I'm signed for this year, but being real about it, it is probably the last year," Fielder told TBS.
The Scott Boras client figures to be one of the most sought-after free agents of the offseason. Still just 27, Fielder began the day with a .294/.407/.543 line and 32 homers. He'll cost a top draft pick, not that that will deter serious suitors. I examined the market for Fielder and fellow free agent Albert Pujols a week ago.
NL Central Notes: Astros, Rodriguez, Carpenter
The Pirates lost to the Cardinals today and Pittsburgh clinched a 19th consecutive losing season in the process. Here are today’s NL Central notes…
- The Astros also lost a historic game today. They fell to the Phillies, setting a franchise record with their 98th defeat of the season.
- Chris Carpenter told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he didn't want to pitch anywhere else and hopes to finish his career in St. Louis. The former Cy Young winner realizes he's no Hall of Famer, but says he's proud to have become a fixture for the Cardinals. The Cardinals locked Carpenter up to a two-year, $21MM extension this week.
- Francisco Rodriguez told Scott Miller of CBS Sports.com that he's disappointed that the Brewers haven't provided him with the chance to close games. "I'm not fine," Rodriguez said. "They told me I'd have the opportunity to close some games, and we've had 20-some save opportunities since then and I haven't even had one." It’s worth noting that closer John Axford has converted his last 39 save chances.
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided the latest Cubs updates this morning and I examined possible suitors for Aramis Ramirez this afternoon.
NL Links: Dobbs, Wang, Cubs, Brewers
Here are some links from the Senior Circuit as we await tonight's Clayton Kershaw–Tim Lincecum matchup…
- Marlins manager Jack McKeon told Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post that he hopes the team brings Greg Dobbs back next season. Of course, it seems unlikely that McKeon himself will be back in the dugout next season.
- A report by Focus Taiwan News Channel (passed along by Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post) indicates that Chien-Ming Wang could earn more than $1MM in incentives by staying in the Nationals rotation all season. He's already made $250K for staying on the roster for 30 days, and will make another $500K for staying on the roster for 60 days. Every start after his tenth (he's started eight) will earn Wang another $100K.
- SI.com's Tom Verducci says Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts can learn a lot from the Red Sox, who were aggressive in their search for a GM after John Henry bought the team in 2002. Billy Beane and J.P. Ricciardi were among the Boston's first choices before hiring Theo Epstein.
- Within the same piece, Verducci notes that the Brewers haven't won a series against a non-Cardinals winning team since Memorial Day. He wonders if all of Milwaukee's wins against sub-.500 teams is making them seem better than they really are.
Where The Market For Pujols & Fielder Stands
With three weeks to go in the regular season, it’s clear that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will be the most tempting free agents on the market this offseason. With all due respect to Jose Reyes, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson, the two first basemen are likely to command the biggest free agent contracts of the winter.
Pujols, 31, is having the worst season of his career in terms of average (.293), on-base percentage (.366) and slugging percentage (.549), but the three-time MVP leads the National League in homers and is tenth in OPS. Not bad for an off-year.
Fielder has a .292/.405/.542 line with 31 homers and a league-leading 108 runs batted in. Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Like Pujols, Fielder will cost a top draft pick, but teams are prepared to surrender those picks for elite production.
Not every team needs a first baseman and not every team can afford a nine-figure contract for a single player, regardless of how productive he is. Heading into the season, we knew that the market for Fielder and Pujols would be limited to half of the teams in baseball at the absolute best. Now that we’re 140 games into the season, we have a sense of which clubs have a need at first base and which ones don’t.
Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes provided a reason why each MLB team could back away from Fielder, who has always seemed more likely to test free agency than Pujols. At this point, Pujols must also want to see what’s out there and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he’s ready for his franchise player to test the market.
Fielder’s representative, Scott Boras, and Pujols’ representative, Dan Lozano, have no doubt started sizing the first base market already. Here’s how it looks:
Five Teams Likely To Have Interest
The Cardinals want Pujols back, so we’ll hear about them until he signs. Similarly, the Brewers will likely express some interest in bringing Fielder back, though their chances of re-signing him have never seemed particularly good.
The new Cubs general manager could grab some headlines by signing Pujols or Fielder away from a division rival and replacing free agent Carlos Pena with a more complete player. The Rangers, who have Michael Young and Mike Napoli in the mix at first base, have been aggressive under new ownership, signing Adrian Beltre and pursuing Cliff Lee.
Despite the financial troubles of owner Frank McCourt, we can’t rule out the Dodgers. James Loney has been doing his best to avoid the non-tender that once seemed inevitable, but his torrid August won’t make GM Ned Colletti forget about Pujols and Fielder.
Ten Teams The Agents Would Do Well To Engage
The Yankees and Red Sox already have elite first basemen, so Lozano and Boras would have to sell the teams (and potentially their clients) on DH roles. Both clubs will have more pressing needs to address, but you can’t rule out either, so prepare to hear about Boston and New York in connection with the two first basemen.
Like the Cubs, the Orioles will likely have a new general manager in town. That person will have to decide whether it’s worth spending big instead of relying on in-house options like Luke Scott, Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds. The Mariners are in a similar situation to the Orioles in that they don’t appear poised to contend in 2012 and have internal options, namely Justin Smoak and Mike Carp.
Blue Jays fans, prepare yourselves for a November MLBTR headline that reads something like this: ‘Blue Jays Interested In Fielder, Pujols.’ Toronto’s front office is tight-lipped about free agent moves, so many available players get linked to the Jays, even when the club’s interest is tepid. The Jays have money and would be a better team with an elite first baseman, so that headline may be worth clicking on.
The Angels have two first basemen (Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo) and five outfielders (Peter Bourjos, Mike Trout, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu) for five total spots. Unless GM Tony Reagins gets really creative on the trade market, I don’t see much room at first or DH.
The same could be said about the Nationals, who have Mike Morse and Adam LaRoche at first base, but let’s not rule Washington out. Their connection with Boras has been well-documented and they may view Pujols and Fielder as the kind of player who could push them into contention (and push Morse to the outfield).
Though there may be some rumblings about the Marlins’ potential interest, it’s hard to imagine them coming through with the winning bid, even as they head into a new ballpark. Gaby Sanchez’s presence further lessens the likelihood of a deal, but both agents could have interest in engaging Florida just in case.
The D’Backs and Giants are sleepers in the Pujols-Fielder sweepstakes. The NL West rivals could both use a boost at first base (only four clubs have gotten a lower OPS from their first basemen this year), but both have incumbents at the position. Would it be that hard to find another role for Paul Goldschmidt? How about relegating Aubrey Huff to the bench and moving Brandon Belt to the outfield? These are question the D’Backs and Giants could ask themselves this offseason.
15 Teams That Don’t Appear To Be Fits
The Rays, Indians, Pirates, Padres and Athletics don’t have the money to get involved (though the latter three teams rank 28th, 29th and 30th in OPS at first base this year).
It’s hard to imagine Pujols or Fielder signing with an AL Central club, since the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals already have first basemen and/or DHs in place. That leaves the Rockies, Astros, Reds, Braves, Mets and Phillies, who all have established first basemen and bigger offseason needs.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Cafardo’s Latest: Fielder, Nathan, Hart, Mauer
One major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that a lot of lefty relievers were blocked by teams and never got through waivers in August. The price tag on most of them was steep so most teams bit the bullet and decided to go with what they had. The Giants were one of those clubs as GM Brian Sabean opted to stick with Javy Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt. Here are some other highlights from Cafardo's column..
- The Mariners re-upped GM Jack Zduriencik this week and Cafardo wonders if Seattle will be in the mix with Prince Fielder this offseason, even though they already have Justin Smoak at first. It's hard to predict how much the M's will be willing to spend and it's possible that the four-year, $36MM deal given to Chone Figgins in December 2009 could make ownership gun-shy.
- The Twins didn’t seem to have anything major working for Joe Nathan at the deadline, but they asked him to waive his trade-veto rights just in case and Nathan declined. Nathan's future with the club is uncertain as he heads into free agency but he has a shot at staying if he accepts a hometown discount. It's unlikely that the Twins will pick up his $12MM option this winter. The club can buy him out for just $2MM.
- Cafardo writes that Brewers rightfielder Corey Hart would fit nicely with the Red Sox. However, it seems likely that they'll lose Fielder this summer so they probably won't entertain a deal involving Hart.
- Twins GM Bill Smith says that Joe Mauer will be a catcher for the foreseeable future, but he continues to leave the door open for a possible shift of positions down the road. There are also no plans for the Giants to move Buster Posey elsewhere, according to Sabean.
Quick Hits: Brewers, August Winners, Free Agents
Twins minor leaguer Kyle Gibson, the No. 22 overall draft pick in 2009, will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Best wishes to Gibson on making a full recovery and perhaps debuting in the Majors late in 2012.
Here are a few other items of note on this Thursday afternoon:
- The Brewers were interested in acquiring lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez from the Orioles before Baltimore dealt him to Texas, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “We had the irons in the fire,” Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin said. The Brew Crew remains without a southpaw in their bullpen.
- The Diamondbacks were among the five winners of August's post-deadline trade period, opines Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com. Arizona shored up its infield by acquiring infielders John McDonald and Aaron Hill from Toronto in exchange for Kelly Johnson. Morosi's other winners: The Rangers, Tigers, Braves and Indians.
- Impending free agents, however established they may be, should still be scouted dilligently, writes Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required). For example, though some of us may take it for granted that Albert Pujols' fractured wrist is fully healed, scouts from interested teams will be watching all of his final at-bats for even the slightest change in his swing or approach. After all, Bowden explains, with tens, and sometimes hundreds, of millions of dollars at stake, every bit of info helps.