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Twins Will Pursue “Impact” Pitching — And They Can Afford It

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The Twins’ best season in nearly a decade ended with yet another first-round playoff exit, and the front office now has its focus shifted to the offseason. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine met with reporters today and expressed a need to add some high-caliber pitching to the ranks (link via La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).

Specifically, Falvey indicated that the Twins will “target impact pitching” both in free agency and on the trade market. While the Twins haven’t typically been big spenders in free agency — Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract is the largest they’ve ever issued to a free agent or to a pitcher in general — Levine voiced a need for him and Falvey to approach owner Jim Pohlad about “being a little more aggressive” in terms of spending.

Certainly, Minnesota figures to have the funds available to do so. Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option is being picked up, but even with that sum added to the books, the Twins only have about $32MM in guaranteed money on next year’s ledger. That number shrinks to just shy of $11MM in 2021 when Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez come off the books.

A look at today’s just-released arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz reveal another $46.2MM to 10 players, but Sam Dyson ($6.4MM) will surely be non-tendered following last week’s shoulder surgery and C.J. Cron is a non-tender candidate at $7.7MM as well. Subtracting that pair from the 10 arb-eligible players leaves the Twins with a projected $64.1MM on next season’s books at the moment. Exercising Martin Perez’s option would tack on another $7.5MM, but Perez didn’t make the team’s ALDS roster and struggled down the stretch, so Minnesota could instead opt for a $500K buyout.

That theoretical $64.1MM baseline covers 12 players, and the Twins have several other pre-arbitration assets to help round out the roster. Luis Arraez could very well be the everyday second baseman next season, Mitch Garver will surely be the primary catcher and Zack Littell looks to have seized a bullpen spot. Jake Cave is a likely fourth outfield candidate, and the pitching staff will include some combination of pre-arbitration arms like Brusdar Graterol, Devin Smeltzer, Ryne Harper, Cody Stashak and Randy Dobnak — though perhaps not all to open the season.

Minnesota’s Opening Day payroll in 2019 weighed in at nearly twice that $64.1MM mark, and the Twins began the 2018 season with a $128MM payroll. There’s already ample room to spend fairly aggressively this winter even if they’re only comfortable returning to that previous $125-130MM threshold. If owner Jim Pohlad agrees with any assertion from Falvey and Levine that the team’s metaphorical window is open — Levine joked of “feeling a breeze” from said window today — then the available pool of resources will only grow.

As for where they’ll need to target that pitching, specifically, the answer clearly lies in the rotation. Jose Berrios is the only surefire candidate to return in 2020, as each of Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Perez (depending on his option decision) are free agents this winter. Graterol, one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, could eventually find himself in the rotation but is still lacking in terms of overall experience.

The Twins have never made a major splash in free agency in the past. The most aggressive offer they’re reported to have put forth came to Yu Darvish prior to his six-year deal with the Cubs. Minnesota was said to have offered Darvish $100MM or more, though, so while they haven’t actually gotten such a deal done, they’ve at least expressed some willingness. They’d need to catapult themselves into another stratosphere to even get in the ballpark for Gerrit Cole, who could break David Price’s $217MM record for a pitcher this offseason. But the next tier of arms features the likes of Stephen Strasburg (if he opts out the heavily deferred four years and $100MM remaining on his current deal), Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler. Odorizzi, a qualifying offer candidate, could potentially return as well.

Outside of the eight-year, $184MM contract for hometown star Joe Mauer — who was the reigning AL MVP and a year from free agency as the Twins entered a new stadium when he inked that deal — Minnesota has never been considered to be a particularly big spender. At some point, however, that will inevitably change. Whether they’ll be able to convince a top-tier free agent to come to the Twin Cities this offseason and whether they’ll be willing to part with draft picks to sign pitchers who reject qualifying offers (i.e. Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Wheeler) remains to be seen. But with a 101-win season fresh in the rear-view mirror, a relatively small number committed to the 2020 payroll and at least two teams in the division still rebuilding (Kansas City, Detroit), it would seem there’s plenty of reason to push the boundaries heading into 2020.

Twins To Exercise Club Option Over Nelson Cruz

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In one of the more predictable items of early offseason business, the Twins have decided to exercise their club option over designated hitter Nelson Cruz, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That decision will not need to be made formally until after the conclusion of the World Series, but it seems the Minnesota organization has already chosen a path.

When Cruz was asked recently about his contract situation, he responded in a manner that almost suggested he would be waiting with baited breath: “I don’t have that call,” he said, “but hopefully they can pick up the option.” But it didn’t take an act of benevolence, or even require much deliberation, for the Minnesota organization to settle upon a return.

This campaign came to a bitterly rapid end, but Cruz was right to note recently that the future seems bright for the Minnesota organization. That’s due primarily to the team’s array of youthful talent, strong farm system, and tidy baseball ops balance sheets. But it’s also based upon the ability to retain Cruz on the heels of a campaign in which he provided valuable leadership and immense offensive production. The veteran DH swatted 41 dingers and turned in a .311/.392/.639 slash during the regular season before producing yet more strong output in the team’s fruitless ALDS appearance.

Cruz was already an elusive free agent bargain, having returned 4.3 wins above replacement (by measure of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference) at a cost of just $14MM. Now, the Twins get another bite at the apple for just $12MM. (The alternative was to send Cruz back onto the open market with a $300K buyout.) It might have been interesting to debate the open-market value of a 39-year-old DH after such a massive season, and then to see how the situation would play out. But we may safely presume that Cruz would have attracted ample interest at or above that price point, likely over multiple years.

Jake Odorizzi On Twins Tenure

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Right-hander Jake Odorizzi may have made the final start of his Twins tenure on Monday. Odorizzi turned in a solid performance against the high-powered Yankees, allowing two runs on five hits (with five strikeouts and no walks) in five innings, but that wasn’t enough to stave off elimination for the Twins. Minnesota fell 5-1 to finish off a three-game ALDS sweep for the Yankees, bringing an early end to an impressive bounce-back season for the Twins.

Now that Minnesota’s offseason has begun, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine must decide whether to aggressively pursue a new deal for Odorizzi. The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s on the brink of free agency, where he’ll be among the top non-Gerrit Cole starters available, though he does seem open to re-signing with the Twins.

Speaking in regards to his time with the Twins and his future Wednesday, Odorizzi told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and other reporters: “That’s out of my hands. I really enjoyed my two years here. If I’m back, great. I’ve really taken a liking to here. But if not, I wish nothing but the best. This is a great group of people from top to bottom. It’s tough to end the year, but at least I got to go out with great fans and a great atmosphere.”

Odorizzi, whom the Twins acquired from the Rays entering the 2018 season, is coming off a career year at an opportune moment. The first-time All-Star pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP with 10.08 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 159 innings, averaging a personal-best 92.9 mph on his fastball along the way.

Thanks to his strong production this season, Odorizzi will go into free agency as a qualifying offer candidate. Receiving a QO wouldn’t do Odorizzi any favors as he prepares to go to the market, as it would require a team to cough up a draft pick(s) while likely giving him a substantial payday over a couple years. However, it’s possible the Twins will simply let Odorizzi walk instead of risking having to pay an $18MM-plus salary for 2019 should he accept a QO. That said, waving goodbye to Odorizzi would be a tough development for the Twins, who are also at risk of seeing Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda bolt via free agency. Additionally, they’ll have a decision to make on Martin Perez, who has a $7.5MM club option or a $500K buyout for next year.

Along with No. 1 starter Jose Berrios, each of Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda and Martin were key components of a Minnesota rotation that saw all of them amass at least 26 starts during a 101-victory, AL Central-winning 2019. The lone member of the quintet who rivaled Berrios in effectiveness was Odorizzi, who may be in another uniform the next time he takes the ball.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins QO Jake Odorizzi?

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Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Twins tomorrow evening at Target Field. With Minnesota facing elimination, it could be the impending free agent’s final start in their uniform. Odorizzi has started 62 games for the Twins since coming over from the Rays via trade prior to the 2018 season. Have those performances been enough to warrant a qualifying offer?

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined the qualifying offer market for pitchers (and position players, for that matter), noting that Odorizzi presented a borderline case. On the surface, his 2019 numbers would seem to make a QO a no-brainer. This season, Odorizzi worked to 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP, each of which ranked in the top 25 among pitchers with 150+ innings. Under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson, Odorizzi’s stuff ticked up, as his 93 MPH average four-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball, was a career-high. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he shattered his previous career-best strikeout rate (27.1%, up nearly five points from last season). Further, Odorizzi was essentially immune to the leaguewide home run spike this season, coughing up a career-low 0.91 HR/9. Put it together, and Odorizzi was worth around 4 wins above replacement, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, easily worth the approximately $18MM he would lock in if he were to accept a qualifying offer.

Of course, though, teams look beyond a player’s previous-year stats in projecting future performance. Odorizzi doesn’t turn 30 until March and has started at least 28 games in each of his six full MLB seasons, so durability and age are on his side. Yet entering this season, his track record was more that of a back-end innings eater than the #2 starter he seemed to be in 2019. From 2016-2018, Odorizzi worked to a 4.09 ERA with a 4.60 FIP, with one of the league’s lowest ground ball rates causing home run problems. Even in 2019, Odorizzi remained a fly ball pitcher, part of the reason the Twins chose to hold him for Monday in Minnesota rather than having him work in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s difficult to imagine him maintaining an 8.8% HR/FB rate moving forward, and his pre-2019 strikeout and walk numbers were hardly eye-catching. If a few more of Odorizzi’s fly balls begin clearing fences and/or his strikeouts regress to their previous levels, his elite run prevention numbers could bounce back up in a hurry.

It’s also notable that Odorizzi’s pure stuff, even with the aforementioned velocity uptick, isn’t world-beating. Per Statcast, Odorizzi has below-average fastball velocity (23rd percentile), fastball spin (40th percentile) and curveball spin (17th percentile). That’s sure to catch the attention of front offices, who increasingly have turned back to valuing raw stuff on the free agent market. Odorizzi can’t rival someone like Zack Wheeler when it comes to GIF-worthy pitching overlays, and just last offseason we saw Dallas Keuchel, whose multi-year track record dwarfed Odorizzi’s, languish on the free agent market after being tagged with a QO.

There’s also the Twins’ situation to consider. Minnesota only has $19.88MM committed to 2020 salaries, per Baseball Reference. They’re sure to exercise Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option and have a hefty slate of arbitration-eligible players, but they’ll nevertheless enter the offseason with ample financial flexibility. They’ll also have plenty of opportunity in the starting rotation. With Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson slated to hit free agency and Martín Pérez looking increasingly likely to be bought out, there’s almost nothing in the way of certainty behind José Berríos. Of course, merely having vacancies in the rotation shouldn’t mean the Twins feel compelled to QO Odorizzi if they feel that’d be a questionable investment.

So we’ll turn it over to you, MLBTR readers. How would you advise baseball ops heads Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to handle Odorizzi’s situation this winter?

(poll link for app users)

AL Notes: Twins, Astros, Gurriel, Angels

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Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

  • At age 35, Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel could be playing himself into another contract with Houston’s club, writes The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Gurriel has enjoyed a career year at an age where he should be declining, perhaps a reflection of his acclimation to the game in the United States. The 2020 season will be the last under his current contract, a five-year, $47MM deal inked prior to 2016, when he defected to the U.S. as one of Cuba’s most accomplished players. He’s by no means the star of a stacked lineup in Houston—he most often slots into the sixth spot for the Astros—but he has delivered solid offensive value, thanks in part to an in-season mechanical change, a focus on lifting the ball, and a heightened focus on preparation.
  • With eliminated teams beginning to consider offseason decisions, the Angels will have to decide whether to protect 26-year-old infielder Jose Rojas or expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He posted career-best numbers at Triple-A this year, slugging 31 home runs and a .293/.362/.577 batting line. Mike DiGiovanna of Baseball America takes a look at Rojas’s case, pointing out that teams around baseball are having some difficulty tuning their evaluation of Triple-A players to the drastically altered offensive environment at the level. Since Triple-A leagues introduced the MLB-used baseball for the 2019 season, power numbers have universally spiked in Triple-A. With the reliability of raw home run numbers in question, DiGiovanna points out that teams are increasingly reliant on their scouts’ eyes in their valuation of Triple-A players.

Nelson Cruz Hopes Twins Pick Up 2020 Option

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Chatting before tonight’s ALDS opener, Twins slugger Nelson Cruz made clear that he’s hoping to stay in Minnesota for at least one more season. MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park was among those covering the interview (video via Twitter).

Cruz’s contract paid him fourteen million well-earned dollars this year. It also came with a $12MM club option. The team would owe just $300K if it declines to pay that sum for Cruz’s age-39 campaign.

“I want to be back,” says Cruz. “I don’t have that call, but hopefully they can pick up the option. The future looks really bright for us so I want to be part of a winning team for many years.” 

Cruz likely won’t need to twist any arms in the Minnesota front office to achieve his desired end. He just homered in tonight’s game and launched 41 long balls over 521 plate appearances. With a monster .311/.392/.639 batting line on the year, Cruz topped all but three hitters leaguewide with a 163 wRC+.

If anything, Cruz’s immense output and affordable option serve to highlight what a bargain his contract seemed at the time. Even with the anticipation of another tepid market for defensively limited sluggers, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $30MM pact. He’d figure to have as much or more earning power this winter, making it quite likely the option will be picked up without much second thought.

Twins Announce ALDS Roster

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The Twins on Friday morning announced their 25-man roster for their American League Division Series date with the Yankees, which is slated to begin tonight when right-hander Jose Berrios faces off with Yankees lefty James Paxton in New York. Here’s the full roster for what figures to be a slugfest between the top two home-run-hitting clubs in MLB history:

Right-handed pitchers

Left-handed pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

It’s notable that each of Arraez, Adrianza and Gonzalez and Kepler is active. All four dealt with late injuries, with Arraez in particular emerging as a question mark following an ankle sprain on the penultimate day of the regular season. The rookie is far from a household name, but he hit .334/.399/.439 with more walks (36) than strikeouts (29) in 366 plate appearances this season and should see plenty of at-bats this series if he’s 100 percent.

The Twins somewhat quietly boasted a formidable bullpen down the stretch. Duffey allowed only two runs after the trade deadline (in his final outing of the year), cementing himself as the top setup option to Rogers. May enjoyed a strong finish to the year, as did the veteran Romo, acquired in a deadline swap. Littell, a former Yankees prospect, posted a 0.88 ERA in his final 30 2/3 innings following a June recall to the big leagues. He’ll be joined by rookies Stashak, Smeltzer and Graterol, the latter of whom is the organization’s top pitching prospect.

While carrying four rookie relievers may surprise some, it’s Dobnak’s inclusion that is perhaps the unlikeliest development. The 24-year-old signed out of independent ball as an undrafted free agent two years ago and skyrocketed through Minnesota’s system, posting a 1.59 ERA in 28 1/3 innings following his MLB debut in 2019. He not only claimed a roster spot but has emerged as a likely starting option alongside Berrios and Odorizzi. That’s both a testament to his ascension and a reminder that Michael Pineda is serving a 60-game suspension.

The most notable absence for the Twins is left-hander Martin Perez, who made 29 starts and three relief appearances for the Twins this season after signing as a free agent. His omission from the roster doesn’t necessarily mean that the Twins plan to decline his $7.5MM option for the 2020 season, but it’s also not a ringing vote of confidence in the veteran southpaw.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Callaway, Cubs, Ibanez, Bucs, Shelton, Reds

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Let’s take a look at several managerial and coaching updates from around the majors…

  • The Mets could decide beleaguered manager Mickey Callaway’s fate as soon as Wednesday, David Lennon of Newsday reports. Callaway just wrapped up his second season in New York, which improved from 77-85 to 86-76. The Callaway-led Mets were a mess prior to a second-half tear, though, and indications are the ax will fall on him in the wake of a another non-playoff season.
  • The Cubs will consider Raul Ibanez for the managerial post Joe Maddon just lost, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Ibanez, a former major league outfielder, has no managerial experience. However, the 47-year-old has stayed in the game since his playing days ended in 2014 by serving as a special assistant in the Dodgers’ front office and a broadcaster. The work Ibanez has done in his post-playing career has made him an appealing possibility to skipper-needy teams over the past couple years, though he turned down managerial interview requests from clubs last offseason.
  • The Pirates, who fired manager Clint Hurdle on Sunday, will “likely” consider hiring Twins bench coach Derek Shelton as his replacement, Morosi tweets. Currently in his second season with the Twins, the 49-year-old Shelton has garnered extensive coaching experience over the past decade and a half. Plus, as Morosi notes, Shelton has an important Pittsburgh connection in general manager Neal Huntington. The two of them worked in the Cleveland organization together from 2005-07.
  • The Reds’ player development system is undergoing significant changes, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer details. Outfield/baserunning coordinator Billy Hatcher, Triple-A manager Jody Davis, Triple-A pitching coach Jeff Fassero, Double-A pitching coach Danny Darwin and hitting coordinator Milt Thompson are all on the way out. The longest-tenured Red of the bunch was Hatcher, who was one of the organization’s coaches for 14 years.

Luis Arraez Suffers Sprained Right Ankle

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Twins super-utilityman Luis Arraez had to be carted off the field during the seventh inning of today’s 4-3 Minnesota win over Kansas City.  Arraez and teammate Willians Astudillo collided on the pitcher’s mound while chasing a pop-up off the bat of the Royals’ Hunter Dozier.

As ugly as the injury looked, x-rays were negative, and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Arraez suffered a sprained right ankle.  The severity of the sprain isn’t yet certain, and the team doesn’t yet know whether or not Arraez will be available for Game One of the ALDS against the Yankees on Friday.

Losing Arraez for the postseason would be a major blow for the Twins, which represents just how much of an impact the 22-year-old has made in his rookie season.  After making his MLB debut in mid-May, Arraez was recalled from Triple-A for good on June 18 and has been an everyday player for Minnesota, playing mostly at second base but also seeing significant time as a left fielder and third baseman (plus a handful of games at shortstop).

As a pure contact hitter in today’s power-heavy game, Arraez’s throwback approach has resulted in solidly above-average offensive production (125 wRC+) and a .334/.399/.439 slash line over 366 plate appearances.  Arraez’s 8.0% strikeout rate is the lowest of any player with at least 350 PA this season, and he is one of the very few regulars who racked up more walks (36) than strikeouts (29).

There was a bit of good fortune mixed into those results, as Arraez’s .334 xwOBA was below his .367 wOBA and he did enjoy a .355 BABIP.  But his performance wasn’t exactly a surprise, as Arraez consistently scored high BABIP totals while also posting high averages and on-base numbers during his six years in Minnesota’s farm system.  Arraez wasn’t considered to be a top-flight prospect, though he did hit .331/.385/.414 over 1585 PA as a Twins minor leaguer.

Even if Arraez is out for Game One, the Twins are expected to get some reinforcements back in the form of Max Kepler and Marwin Gonzalez.  Arraez essentially usurped the super-util role the Twins had in mind for Gonzalez when they signed him to a two-year, $21MM free agent deal last winter, though Gonzalez has battled some injuries and been inconsistent at the plate.

Central Notes: Gordon, Twins, Braun, Pirates

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Once again, Royals general manager Dayton Moore has made it clear that the club wants left fielder Alex Gordon to return in 2020. According to Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star, Moore informed a group of season ticket holders that he told Gordon, “We want you back.” Moore added, “We’re a better ball club with Alex Gordon.” Set to turn 36 in February, Gordon indicated earlier this month he’s likely to wait until the winter to decide if he’ll continue playing next season. The career-long Royal has said he’ll only play for them if he does keep going. Gordon has a $23MM mutual option (or a $4MM buyout) for 2020, but the two sides figure to work out a much cheaper arrangement in the event he doesn’t retire.

More from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Twins manager Rocco Baldelli expects the banged up duo of outfielder Max Kepler and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez to be ready when the American League Division Series begins next week, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com relays. Meanwhile, injured utility player Ehire Adrianza is making progress, but he’s not as far along in his recovery process as Kepler and Gonzalez are in theirs. Shoulder and back problems have prevented Kepler from taking an at-bat since Sept. 14, thereby derailing a breakout season; Gonzalez has been dealing with oblique issues throughout the month; and Adrianza went down Sept. 12 with oblique troubles of his own.
  • The Brewers announced that outfielder Ryan Braun exited their game against the Rockies on Friday with discomfort in his left calf. The severity of the injury isn’t clear, but with Christian Yelich done for the year and Lorenzo Cain playing through injuries, a serious ailment for Braun would be another unwelcome development for the Brewers’ outfield as the playoffs approach. While the 35-year-old Braun is no longer the star he was in his prime, he has still contributed a valuable .285/.343/.505 line with 22 home runs and 11 steals on 12 attempts in 508 plate appearances this season. [UPDATE: Braun suffered a strain and will undergo an MRI, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.]
  • The Pirates have discussed using left-hander Steven Brault as an occasional outfielder in 2020, according to manager Clint Hurdle (via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). The 27-year-old Brault hasn’t garnered any professional experience in the grass, but he did play some outfield at Regis University. Brault would be open to giving it a shot in the majors, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets.
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