Twins Notes: Cruz, Donaldson, Hill
Nelson Cruz hit .311/.392/.639 with 41 homers in his first season in Minnesota, making it an easy call for the Twins to exercise their $12MM club option on the veteran slugger for 2020. Cruz can be a free agent next winter, though GM Thad Levine told fans and reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) at this weekend’s TwinsFest fan event that “we are having ongoing conversations with [Cruz’s] agent to discuss mutual interest in the future.”
Though Cruz has continued to swing a mighty bat into his late 30’s, he signed with the Twins for just one guaranteed year (worth $14.3MM in guaranteed money) with the 2020 club option last winter, as his age and DH-only lineup deployment limited his market. It’s fair to assume that those same factors could impact Cruz again this coming offseason, even if he has another big season in 2020. Cruz turns 40 in July, so perhaps a modest one-year extension covering the 2021 season would be acceptable to both sides. The Twins would be making a minimal risk in an aging player who has shown no signs of falling off at the plate, while Cruz would get some extra reward and security, while sidestepping the free agent market to stay in a familiar environment with a contending team.
Here’s more from the Twin Cities….
- The Twins’ signing of Josh Donaldson is chronicled by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (subscription required) in a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at the courtship between the two sides. Most of the deal’s financial elements (four years and $92MM, plus a club option for 2024) were already put forward by the Twins as early as mid-December, though that left several weeks of uncertainty on both sides as Donaldson pondered his options and began to learn more about the Minnesota organization. “There were times we thought we had a zero percent chance of signing (Donaldson). There were times we thought we had something a lot better,” Levine said. The process was also somewhat complicated by Levine going on vacation in late December, as chief baseball officer Derek Falvey then stepped in to continue negotiations with Donaldson’s representatives.
- Rich Hill is still targeting early June for his return date to the majors, and the date of his debut in a Twins uniform. Hill told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that he will begin baseball activities next week, as the veteran left-hander continues to recover from primary revision surgery in November. Though Hill pitched with a detached UCL for much of the 2019 season, the injury wasn’t serious enough to require Tommy John surgery, which is why he opted for the lesser-known primary revision procedure that offered a shorter recovery timeframe. “It’s only a six-year-old surgery, and it’s had a huge amount of success of people who have had it and come back. I think it’s above a 95 percent success rate, so it’s something that I’m extremely excited about,” Hill said. The Twins signed Hill to a one-year deal in December worth $3MM in guaranteed money, though Hill only needs to pitch as many as 25 innings to start unlocking the $9.5MM in extra incentive bonuses in the contract.
Free Agent Spending By Team: American League
As we covered earlier this week, almost all of the prominent free agents in this year’s class have already exited the board. Because of that, we’ll see more and more minor league signings and fewer and fewer major league deals in the weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. This has been an aggressive offseason in terms of spending, though. To this point, which teams have handed out the most guaranteed money via the open market? We’ll examine both leagues, but let’s begin with the AL (reminder: This exercise excludes trades, club options, extensions, waiver claims and Rule 5 selections)…
Yankees: $336.5MM on two players (Gerrit Cole and Brett Gardner; top 50 MLBTR signings: two)
Angels: $260.85MM on three players (Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran and Jason Castro; top 50 signings: three)
White Sox: $196.5MM on six players (Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion, Steve Cishek and Gio Gonzalez; top 50 signings: five)
Twins: $151.8MM on eight players (Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Sergio Romo, Alex Avila, Rich Hill and Tyler Clippard; top 50 signings: four)
Blue Jays: $114.35MM on four players (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi and Travis Shaw; top 50 signings: two)
Rangers: $62.25MM on five players (Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Robinson Chirinos, Joely Rodriguez and Todd Frazier; top 50 signings: two)
Tigers: $17.8MM on four players (C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine and Ivan Nova; top 50 signings: one)
Astros: $15.65MM on three players (Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado and Dustin Garneau; top 50 signings: zero)
Rays: $12MM on one player (Yoshitomo Tsutsugo; top 50 signings: zero)
Red Sox: $9.9MM on three players (Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Kevin Plawecki; top 50 signings: zero)
Athletics: $7.5MM on one player (Jake Diekman; top 50 signings: zero)
Royals: $6.95MM on two players (Alex Gordon and Maikel Franco; top 50 signings: zero)
Indians: $6.25MM on one player (Cesar Hernandez; top 50 signings: zero)
Orioles: $3MM on one player (Jose Iglesias; top 50 signings: zero)
Mariners: $2.95MM on two players (Kendall Graveman and Carl Edwards Jr.; top 50 signings: zero)
Twins Designate Ryne Harper
The Twins have designated right-hander Ryne Harper for assignment, the club informed reporters including Dan Hayes of The Athletic (Twitter link). His roster spot was needed for the addition of Josh Donaldson.
It’s a tough result for the 30-year-old Harper, who had a solid showing in his long-awaited MLB debut campaign. He worked to a 3.81 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 54 1/3 innings.
Teams interested in cheap and steady innings will surely take a hard look at Harper. He doesn’t throw hard and generates bottom-of-the-barrel fastball spin. But his command-driven, slider-heavy approach still permitted an 11.6% swinging-strike rate and a palatable 1.16 HR/9.
Twins Sign Josh Donaldson
JANUARY 22: The signing is now official. Donaldson’s pact also includes a five-team no-trade clause, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets.
JANUARY 15: The Twins have reportedly agreed to a four-year, $92MM contract with free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s said to include a $16MM club option for a fifth season, which comes with a $8MM buyout. Donaldson is represented by the MVP Sports Group.
The $92MM guarantee makes this the largest free-agent signing in team history and the second-largest contract the franchise has ever given out, trailing only Joe Mauer‘s eight-year, $184MM mega-deal.
Minnesota has long been reported to hold interest in Donaldson after missing out on higher-end upgrades in the starting rotation earlier in the winter. By bringing Donaldson aboard, the Twins will shift the recently extended Miguel Sano across the diamond to first base, upgrading their infield defense substantially while adding one of the game’s most potent bats to what was already one of MLB’s best lineups in 2019.
Donaldson, 34, bounced back from an injury-ruined 2018 season to hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs in 155 games/659 plate appearances with the Braves last season. That marked his fourth season of at least 33 home runs in the past five years, with the lone exception coming in 2018 when a calf injury held him to 52 games. His addition, incredibly, will give the Twins six players who hit 30 or more home runs in 2019; Sano, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver also crossed the 30-homer threshold on a team that Rosario nicknamed the “Bomba Squad.” While that type of output can’t be expected to be repeated — at least, assuming the league corrects last year’s juiced ball — the Twins should still be in possession of perhaps baseball’s most powerful lineup.
For the Twins, Donaldson’s glove at third base is arguably as important as his offensive prowess. Despite playing last season at age 33, Donaldson tied for 17th among MLB infielders with +8 Outs Above Average (per Statcast). Sano, conversely, checked in at -5 in that same category, so shifting him across the diamond in favor of Donaldson will represent a marked upgrade to the team’s infield defense, which was quietly one of its most significant needs. Shortstop Jorge Polanco graded out poorly, as did rookie second baseman Luis Arraez. The team’s infield defense surely won’t be a strength in 2020, but it figures to be considerably better with Donaldson than it otherwise would have.
Given the Twins’ inability to upgrade their rotation in a notable way this winter, that improved defense will be all the more important. Minnesota has signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill to affordable one-year deals but will otherwise rely upon a very similar starting staff to the one that looked overmatched in the 2019 American League Division Series. Jose Berrios remains under club control as an arbitration-eligible player, while Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer and Michael Pineda re-signed on a two-year, $20MM deal. There’s still room for the Twins to make an addition, of course, but the free-agent market has been largely picked over and the trade market doesn’t offer a clearly available top-of-the-rotation arm.
The addition of Donaldson should push the Twins to a new franchise record in payroll, eclipsing the previous mark of $129MM by a good margin. Assuming an even $21MM breakdown of the first four years of the deal, the Twins’ 2020 payroll will clock in at just shy of $140MM. Large as that number may be, the Twins’ total commitments will plummet to about $55MM in 2021; Odorizzi, Cruz, Bailey, Hill, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Avila, Tyler Clippard, Trevor May and Ehire Adrianza are all lined up to become free agents.
Signing Donaldson, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves, will cost the Twins their third-highest pick in the 2020. That’s their Competitive Balance Round B selection — currently slotted to come in at No. 73 overall. The Braves, conversely, will receive a compensatory selection between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the beginning of Round 3. Coincidentally, the comp pick they’ll receive will land in the exact same range as the pick that Minnesota is surrendering.
Certainly, given Donaldson’s age, there’s some risk with the deal. He’s generally been a durable commodity outside of that 2018 season, but Donaldson’s ability to remain an elite player into the middle years of this contract is more in question than is typical with younger free agents. Of course, with Cruz among the Twins’ many free agents next winter, Donaldson could eventually begin seeing some extra time at DH to help keep him productive. And, in the final season or two of the deal, it’s possible that he could even serve as the team’s primary designated hitter if that becomes necessary.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the offseason, it seems likely that the Twins will continue to at least parse the market for available pitching upgrades. The bullpen is in better shape than it was at the onset of free agency, but there’s potentially some room for another ‘pen addition and certainly room for another starter to be brought into the fray. Just how much further owner Jim Pohlad is willing to push payroll and how willing president of baseball ops Derek Falvey is to part with young talent will ultimately dictate whether another splash is in the offing.
The Twins, of course, aren’t the only team impacted by this signing. The Braves now have a glaring hole in the middle of their lineup and a need at the hot corner. The Nationals, another finalist in the Donaldson mix, can turn to some combination of Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera or prospect Carter Kieboom at third base. That Donaldson landed in Minnesota also bodes well for both the Cubs and Rockies, if either plans to seriously entertain offers for their respective star third basemen, Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado. The Twins wouldn’t necessarily have made a push to add a different third baseman had Donaldson signed elsewhere, having Sano already in the fold. But the Braves now appear to have a significant need at third base — creating a clear avenue to a potential trade for a third baseman of some type.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted news of the signing. Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North Radio (via Twitter), Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (via Twitter), and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) all reported contract details. This post was originally published on 1-14-20.
Twins Notes: Donaldson, Polanco, Sano
The Twins’ initial four-year offer to Josh Donaldson was for $84MM, per Phil Miller and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Shortly thereafter, the team grew pessimistic about signing him, as reports that Donaldson was seeking a $110MM guarantee surfaced. Minnesota’s addition of a fifth-year option with a huge buyout ($16MM option, $8MM buyout) not only boosted the contract’s guarantee to $92MM but also increased the possibility of Donaldson eventually reaching the $100MM mark, which was important to his camp. That increase, of course, also helped the Twins to outbid the rest of the field, which included the Braves, Nationals and, to a lesser extent, the Dodgers and Rangers.
Donaldson himself chatted with Alison Mastrangelo of Channel 2 WSB News in Atlanta about his decision to choose the Twins over the Braves (Twitter links, with video). “Ultimately it wasn’t in the same realm for me [financially],” Donaldson said. “This is going to be my 13th year in the big leagues. I’ve been on a lot of one-year contracts, and the Twins were in a position to where they could offer me a lengthy deal where I thought it was right for me and my family.”
The third baseman called the opportunity to suit up for the Braves, who he grew up watching a “dream come true,” but added that Atlanta wound up “offering me late — like a day or so before.” A return simply “didn’t work out,” Donaldson summed. On the Twins, he expressed excitement over joining a contender with a deep lineup and noted that he’s had success hitting at Minneapolis’ Target Field throughout his career.
More from the Twin Cities…
- Shortstop Jorge Polanco, who underwent surgery to repair a chronic ankle issue in November, is likely to resume baseball activities this week, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North radio. There was no expectation at the time of the surgery that Polanco’s rehab would extend into Spring Training or the regular season, though it’s nevertheless a positive for the Twins that the 26-year-old’s rehab is seemingly on track. Polanco turned in a strong .295/.356/.485 slash and a career-high 22 home runs in 2019, but he also posted some of the game’s lowest marks in Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. Ongoing ankle troubles surely didn’t help Polanco’s mobility, but it’s still tough to expect him to make significant contributions on the defensive side of things.
- Miguel Sano will shift across the diamond to first base now that the Twins have emerged victorious in the Donaldson bidding, and the slugger has no issue with that move, writes Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Sano has been working out at first base all winter and said he’s plenty willing to make the switch. (In the aforementioned Star Tribune column, Sano even revealed that he sent a video message to Donaldson in the final days of his free agency, urging him to come to Minnesota to “join the Bomba Squad.”) Moreover, Sano made clear that he hopes to stay in Minnesota well beyond the 2023 season — the final year of club control on the $30MM extension he just signed: “I think regardless of winning or losing, I’ve made up my mind,” Sano said. “I want to spend my entire career here, so this is the first step.”
Twins Targeted Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu Before Winning Donaldson Sweepstakes
Before the holidays, the Twins offered Josh Donaldson a four-year, $84MM contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in team history after Joe Mauer, writes Phil Miller in a profile well worth a read from the Star Tribune. Another interesting tidbit from Miller confirmed that Zack Wheeler had been the Twins’ primary target at the outset of the offseason, shifting only to Donaldson after missing out on Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Donaldson offered a potent bat, of course, but the ability to improve their infield defense at third (and by effect, their pitching) also keyed the Twins on the Bringer of Rain.
Donaldson and his agent Dan Lozano fielded recruitment efforts from all corners of the Minnesota Twins extended universe before committing, from Miguel Sano over video eagerly offering to accommodate Donaldson by changing positions, to a former tennis professional and friend of Donaldson’s who happens to be a Twins fan, to the substantial recruitment effort put in ink by Twins’ ownership when they offered him a four-year, $92MM contract. The fifth year, $16MM team option helped push the deal over the edge, especially once the Twins’ agreed to set the buyout amount at $8MM. If the option is picked up, the deal becomes a five-year, $100MM pact.
Some of the heaviest lifting was done in a meeting between Donaldson, Lozano, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli, General Manager Thad Levine and Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey. Baldelli sold Donaldson on clubhouse culture and his plans for deploying Donaldson. The front office put together metrics on their 2019 success and profiled some of the talent on its way to Minneapolis from the minor leagues, establishing a belief that the Twins will remain in contention throughout Donaldson’s tenure.
Misinformation persisted in the media throughout, with Lozano suspected of leaking the $110MM asking price in the hopes of a team with deep pockets (like the Dodgers) matching the number. It worked, in a way, as the Twins realized Donaldson must not have had the offer he wanted, so they set out with renewed enthusiasm (and more money). Obviously, $100MM turned out to be the magic number.
Latest On Byron Buxton
In a Twins lineup loaded with power hitters, center fielder Byron Buxton can get lost in the shuffle. Buxton’s nevertheless a valuable member of the reigning AL Central champions’ roster, though, and after undergoing left shoulder surgery last September, he’s recovering well, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports.
The 26-year-old Buxton received medical clearance this week to swing a bat again and could be ready to face live pitching by the time the Twins’ full-squad workouts begin Feb. 17. That’s yet another bit of encouraging for the Twins, who won 101 games a season ago and, after they struck a deal with star third baseman Josh Donaldson, appear very likely to open 2020 as the favorites in their division.
Buxton’s known to play the field with reckless abandon, which helped lead to injuries that limited him to a meager 87 games and 295 plate appearances last year. Despite an abbreviated campaign, he was an important part of Minnesota’s superb effort. The former No. 2 overall pick managed 2.7 fWAR, hit .262/.314/.513 with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases, and posted 10 Defensive Runs Saved, a plus-8.7 Ultimate Zone Rating and 12 Outs Above Average in center. None of that production is easily replaceable, and if Buxton’s healthy enough to start 2020 in the Twins’ outfield, it’ll make an already strong team even better.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Twins?
No team took a bigger step forward in 2019 than the Twins, who increased their win total from 78 to 101 in a one-year span. They knocked the back-to-back-to-back AL Central-winning Indians off their pedestal in the process, taking the division by a cushy eight games. The Twins did it with a juggernaut offense known as the Bomba Squad – a group that smashed the all-time single-season home run record with 307 during a historically powerful year across baseball. In the end, though, the Twins’ longtime playoff nemesis in the Bronx proved to be their undoing once again when October arrived.
The Yankees continued to haunt the Twins, but there was still plenty to be encouraged about for the latter when its offseason began. The expectation entering the winter was that the Twins would make aggressive upgrades to their pitching staff, which was facing the departures of four free-agent starters in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez. They wound up keeping Odorizzi and Pineda, though the latter will miss the beginning of the season after incurring a 60-game suspension for a banned substance last September. Those two and Jose Berrios should give the Twins’ rotation a strong foundation when Pineda returns, but questions abound otherwise.
The Twins didn’t come away with a Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner type in free agency, instead reeling in the veteran duo of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on one-year deals. Hill has been absolutely great when healthy. Problem is that he’s an oft-injured soon-to-be 40-year-old who won’t debut until the summertime after undergoing elbow surgery. Bailey’s career was all but left for dead a couple years back, but he did experience a resurgence in 2019, turning back into a viable starter with the Royals and A’s. The rest of the Twins’ rotation possibilities are decidedly less experienced, though there’s promise with the likes of Randy Dobnak, Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer.
The Twins haven’t splurged on expensive starters or relievers (the battle-tested Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard signed affordable deals), but they’ve somehow found a way to assemble an even more intimidating offense. The club that boasted five 30-homer hitters a year ago just found a sixth in ex-Brave Josh Donaldson, whom it added on a four-year, $92MM pact. It’s the largest contract the Twins have given a free agent, but Donaldson seems worth it based on his lengthy track record of excellence.
The Donaldson deal might not look great in a few years, at which point he’ll be in his late 30s, but the Twins can worry about tomorrow when it comes. Today they’re focused on a World Series, and they just might get there with an offense capable of pounding opposing teams into submission. Assuming the baseball itself has less juice than it did last year, the Twins are likely to amass fewer HRs as a team. Still, when the likes of Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver are part of your regular lineup, there’s little doubt you’ll terrorize enemy pitchers.
As frightening as the Twins’ offense looks, the team itself could face more tests within a division that it owned last season. Minnesota went a combined 50-26 against the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers. The Indians should still be a quality team (that’s if they don’t trade Francisco Lindor), and the White Sox are on the upswing after they made a slew of noteworthy acquisitons earlier this winter. Detroit and KC will be at the bottom of the division again, but at least the Tigers have made some effort to improve, including with the pickups of ex-Twins C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop.
While it may be a more competitive AL Central in 2020, the Twins remain the front-runners. The question is: Just how good do you think they’ll be?
(Poll link for app users)
How many Twins wins do you expect?
-
90-94 40% (8,816)
-
95-100 31% (6,868)
-
85-89 17% (3,796)
-
101 or more 10% (2,115)
-
Fewer than 85 3% (618)
Total votes: 22,213
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Donaldson Signing
After a lengthy and complicating matchmaking process, the Twins have reportedly come away with elite veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s a momentous occasion for the Minnesota organization, which is looking to fend off the Indians and White Sox to repeat as AL Central champ.
Though a big strike for Donaldson wasn’t necessarily the club’s very top choice, it became a priority when righty Zack Wheeler decided to head to the Phillies. The Donaldson contract is quite a different proposition in many regards: he’s an older position player, while Wheeler is a younger pitcher. But both players come with similar mixes of lofty ceilings and fairly significant risk factors. And they’ll play for generally equivalent money, with the far senior Donaldson receiving one less guranteed season.
Guaranteeing four years and $92MM to a 34-year-old player is virtually without precedent. As we recently explored, it’s an expansion of the commitments we’ve seen of late to other high-end older players. But the Twins are doing it with eyes wide open. And Donaldson is more than just a high-quality veteran.
If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit, there’s good reason to hope for massive production. He posted a 132 wRC+ last year and will add yet more pop to an already potent lineup. And Donaldson was somewhere between good and excellent with the glove, depending upon whom you ask. That allows the Twins to unlock yet more value from this signing, as they’ll improve their overall glovework by shifting Miguel Sano over to first base.
That said, there’ll always be some level of trepidation regarding Donaldson’s age and recent history of leg issues. 34 in September, Donaldson may not have lost much to this point. But it’s tougher to overcome the physical ailments that do arise and we have seen plenty of players run into relatively steep declines. Of at least as much concern is the track record from the two seasons prior to his platform campaign. While he was healthy in, Donaldson was limited to 165 total contests over 2017-18 owing mostly to a lingering calf injury.
So … how do you grade this signing from the Twins’ perspective? (Poll link for app users.)
Grade the Twins' Signing Of Josh Donaldson
-
B 40% (12,686)
-
A 31% (9,735)
-
C 20% (6,334)
-
D 6% (1,791)
-
F 3% (950)
Total votes: 31,496
Twins Extend Miguel Sano
JANUARY 14: The Minnesota organization has now announced the deal.
JANUARY 10: The Twins have inked third baseman Miguel Sano to a three-year extension, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The deal guarantees Sano $30MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That includes a $3MM buyout on a 2023 option, which is priced at $14MM. Sano is a client of the Cobb Eddy Sports Group.
Sano entered the offseason in the 4+ service class. Rather than a second trip through the arbitration process — he had been projected to take home a $5.9MM contract — Sano will lock in his final two arb-eligible campaigns while giving the Minnesota organization control over two would-be free-agent seasons.
While there’s some upside to be gained for organization, it’s also a notable vote of confidence in the 26-year-old slugger. Long lauded as a major talent, Sano broke into the league in a big way and was generally very productive with the bat over his first three seasons in the majors. But he literally and figuratively limped through a miserable 2018 season. After an offseason of work created a sense of optimism, Sano was then slowed at the start of 2019 due to an Achilles injury. When he finally returned to action last spring, it was far from clear what to expect.
As it turned out, Sano turned in his most productive offensive run since his rookie showing back in 2015. Over 439 plate appearances, he slashed .247/.346/.576 and socked 34 long balls. Statcast figures gave ample cause to buy into the idea that he was back in top form at the plate. Sano led all of baseball in hard contact percentage and graded in elite company in just about all of the batted-ball measures.
There are some negatives, even in the hitting arena. Sano swings and misses quite a bit, even by today’s standards. He has consistently struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances and seems a safe bet to continue to do so. Sano does draw a decent number of walks — about a dozen per hundred plate appearances historically and in 2019 — but isn’t as dramatically good in that regard as he is dramatically woeful in terms of strikeouts. Perhaps there’s still some reason to hope he can make strides in the plate-discipline arena, since Sano obviously has an eye and must be pitched carefully. But as things stand, he’s dependent upon sustaining a strong batting average on balls in play to prop up his on-base numbers. So long as he’s stinging the ball, that’ll likely work out well enough, but it’d be nice to see some closing of the yawning gap between his strikeout and walk rates.
Supposing that the Twins think Sano can repeat or even expand upon his offensive output of 2019, that’s a heck of a starting point. His 137 wRC+ matched that of Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien, making them the next two players out of the top twenty slots leaguewide among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Of course, Semien produced nearly three times as much fWAR as Sano due to the variety of factors that limit the latter’s value.
First and foremost is the question of glovework. Sano has a huge arm but isn’t exactly the most mobile of players with his massive frame. He has at times graded out between slightly below average and very poor in terms of overall defensive performance at third, by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. Both were down on his work last year, especially UZR. But Statcast’s newly devised defensive grading system isn’t quite so negative, marking Sano as a below-average but hardly disastrous performer at the hot corner.
Even if you take a somewhat more optimistic view of things, it seems safe to say Sano isn’t likely to be more than a palatable defender at third over the life of this contract. And with his big frame and durability concerns, there’s risk he won’t even be that. Of course, it’s still possible that he could shift across the diamond — as soon as 2020, if the Twins land Josh Donaldson — and the DH slot will open up at some point if and when Nelson Cruz retires or heads elsewhere. None of that will resolve Sano’s longstanding woes on the basepaths, where he’s a consistent negative, though Statcast does indicate that Sano was once rather speedy and is still in range of average in average sprint velocity.
Ultimately, the Twins don’t need Sano to be a true superstar for this deal to work out. Picking up control over two of Sano’s potential prime hitting seasons delivers plenty of value upside. And while there are some downside scenarios, the overall guarantee just isn’t great enough to carry significant risk even to a lower-payroll outfit.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.