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Twins Sign First Rounder Alex Wimmers

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The Twins have signed first round pick Alex Wimmers according to Kelsie Smith of The Pioneer Press (via Twitter). Joe Christensen of The Star Tribune tweets that he will receive a $1.33MM signing bonus, matching MLB's recommended bonus.

Minnesota selected Wimmers with the 21st overall pick back in June. The Ohio State righthander boasts the best changeup in the draft according to Baseball America, who also says that he throws his fastball at 90-92 and touches 94 mph. Smith says Wimmers will report to the Twins' Class-A Advanced affiliate in Fort Myers next week (Twitter link).

There are still 17 unsigned first round picks with ten days to go before the signing deadline.

Stark On Padres, Manny, Wandy, Harang

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The Rangers appear to be headed toward stability, but they added $4.6MM in payroll before the trade deadline and, as ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports, that left some rival executives unhappy. Here are the rest of Stark's rumors:

  • The Padres had asked the Cardinals about Ryan Ludwick more than once leading up to the trade deadline.
  • GM Jed Hoyer had also inquired on Jake Westbrook and even Roy Oswalt.
  • When the White Sox called the Dodgers to ask about Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers ended the conversation quickly. That didn't stop the Rays and two other American League teams from calling the Dodgers, however. We should note that GM Ned Colletti told Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio that he only fielded one call about Manny (Twitter link).
  • Not one team pursued Jose Guillen seriously before the deadline. The Royals designated the outfielder for assignment today, so we'll see in the next ten days if any teams have mild interest.
  • Joe Beimel drew lots of interest last weekend, but the Rockies never seriously shopped him. 
  • A number of teams tried to acquire Wandy Rodriguez, including the Twins, Reds, Mets, Dodgers and Blue Jays.
  • The Reds tried to determine interest in Aaron Harang, so they could attempt to move him in August if he returns from the DL and proves that the back spasms that sidelined him are no longer an issue.

Three Decisions: Matt Guerrier

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Matt Guerrier currently projects as a Type A free agent under the Elias Rankings. When he hits free agency after the season, the Twins will have a major decision to make: is Guerrier worth an offer of arbitration? Depending on what GM Bill Smith does, Guerrier will have his own a choice to make and so will baseball's other teams. Here's a breakdown of the three possible decisions, starting with the Twins:

The Twins' Decision

If Guerrier maintains his Type A status, he will have the potential to bring the Twins two top picks in the 2011 draft. For that to happen, Guerrier would have to turn arbitration down and sign with another club.

The right-hander has led the league in appearances each of the past two seasons and has a 2.89 ERA this year with 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It's another solid season for the 32-year-old Ohio native, and he'd fit well in many bullpens.

Guerrier is making just 3.15MM in 2010 and hasn't had an exceptional career before this point, so he would presumably make something like $4MM if he accepts arbitration. The Twins have already committed $72MM to their 2011 payroll and that figure doesn't include Matt Capps' expected raise through arbitration. The Twins, who will pay Joe Nathan $11.25MM next year, may hesitate to commit even $4MM to Guerrier, who's good, but not irreplaceable. They could decide not to offer arbitration and forgo the potential draft picks, but if they do offer arb, Guerrier will have to make a decision of his own.

Guerrier's Decision

If the Twins offer arbitration, Guerrier and his agent would have to decide whether to accept the offer, like Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano did last year, or turn it down. Some relievers, like Juan Cruz, have had trouble finding jobs after turning down arb because of their Type A status, so Guerrier could simply accept, since he's not a household name. He and his agent will have from December 1st to December 7th to decide.

However, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner and Mike Gonzalez all found jobs last winter even though the teams that signed them had to give up compensation picks to do so. Those three relievers all had lower ERAs and higher strikeout rates last year than Guerrier has in 2010. However, Guerrier has a lower walk rate than any of those three pitchers had a year ago. 

He and his representatives would have to decide whether clubs consider Guerrier an impact reliever who's worth surrendering a top pick for. It seems quite unlikely that Guerrier would turn down arbitration if the Twins offer it, but teams will have to make a decision if Guerrier turns down arb.

Other Teams' Decision

Is Guerrier worth surrendering a first round pick for? To his credit, he has posted ERAs below 3.00 in three of the past four seasons, has an excellent slider and was durable enough to lead the league in appearances in 2008-09. Still, his career-low homer rate is keeping his ERA artificially low, he doesn't strike tons of batters out and reliever performance can be volatile. I'd be surprised if a front office in baseball believed that Guerrier was worth surrendering a first-round pick for.

However, they wouldn't necessarily have to. Teams that sign multiple Type A free agents only give one first rounder away, naturally. Guerrier would only cost a second or third-rounder for clubs that are especially aggressive in free agency, so those teams could have stronger interest.

The Conclusion

If the Twins feel they can afford to have three well-paid relievers in their 'pen, offering Guerrier arb wouldn't hurt. After all, they'd have the chance to obtain a supplementary first round pick and another pick if he signs elsewhere. Guerrier's representatives would likely advise him to accept arb, since there's no guarantee that rival clubs would have interest. If Guerrier turns arb down, he could be in for a Juan Cruz-esque job search unless a team that signs multiple Type A free agents makes him an offer.

Waiver Trade Candidates: AL Central

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The current AL Central picture: the White Sox and Twins are contenders, the Tigers are in the gray area, and the Royals and Indians are out of it.  Waiver trade possibilities:

It's been an up-and-down year for White Sox closer Bobby Jenks; would he be claimed despite a $7.5MM salary?  Would the Sox pull him back?  I'd expect Scott Linebrink and Mark Teahen to clear waivers, although deals seem unlikely.  Mark Kotsay and Tony Pena could be expendable in minor trades.

Twins such as Nick Punto, Nick Blackburn, and Brendan Harris should clear waivers, though Punto can't pass through until he returns from the DL.

Brandon Inge may return from the DL from a broken hand this week, and probably would clear waivers.  Carlos Guillen, dealing with a calf strain, should clear if he returns from the DL this month.  Jeremy Bonderman, Johnny Damon, Jhonny Peralta, Gerald Laird, and Brad Thomas are others who might make it through waivers.  If the Tigers are out of it and one of these players is claimed, trimming a few hundred thousand dollars might be appealing.

Royals righty Gil Meche will attempt to finish the season as a reliever rather than undergo shoulder surgery, but it's hard to say if he'll return from the DL this month.  Jose Guillen is a lock to clear, and perhaps a deal can be worked out.  We'll be curious to see what happens when Yuniesky Betancourt, Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies, Willie Bloomquist, Wilson Betemit, and Bruce Chen hit the wire.  Bloomquist may go.

The Indians' Travis Hafner will clear waivers and stay put, if he's activated from the DL for should inflammation later this month.

For our primer on the waiver trade process, click here.

Odds & Ends: Duffy, Tigers, Yankees, Reds, Red Sox

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Some leftovers in the wake of another trade deadline…

  • I'll be appearing on Sporting News Radio at 8:25pm PT tonight to talk about the deadline. You can listen in here.
  • ESPN's Jayson Stark named his trade deadline winners and losers, with the Rangers, Padres, and Yankees among the teams earning praise.
  • The Phillies released Triple-A outfielder Chris Duffy, reports Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski told Steve Kornacki of MLive.com that he "had a chance to do something surprising and big," and that it was like "getting the wind knocked out of you" when it fell through. He didn't elaborate any further, so we'll have to keep playing the guessing game.
  • Joel Sherman of The New York Post says the Yankees took on $4.8MM at the deadline, more than any other team (Twitter links). The bankrupt Rangers came in second at $4.1MM. 
  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon that he was working on some deals in recent days, but they "fell apart at the end." 
  • ESPN's Buster Olney tweets the Red Sox finished second in the Kerry Wood race, ditto the Rays and Lance Berkman, both of whom ended up with their biggest rival.
  • Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider tweets that Yunesky Maya's deal with Washington will be made official within the hour. 
  • The Padres inquired about Jacoby Ellsbury before picking up Ryan Ludwick, but were told he's not available according to ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes (Twitter links).
  • ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Dodgers took on about $3MM with all their deadline moves. Their financial situation has been in question basically all season.
  • Chad Tracy has exercised an opt-out clause in his minor league contract with the Yankees and is now a free agent, tweet Conor Foley with the Triple-A Scranton Yankees.
  • Barret Loux has joined the Cotuit Kettleers of the Cape Cod League according to the team's official Twitter feed. Loux was the sixth overall pick in last month's draft, but recently failed his physical with the Diamondbacks and could be looking to rebuild his stock.
  • The Royals traded minor league catcher Jeff Howell to the Twins for future considerations according to milb.com's official Twitter feed.

Dodgers Acquire Lilly, Theriot For DeWitt

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1:15pm: Stark tweets that the pitching prospects going to the Cubs are Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit.

1:09pm: The Cubs will get DeWitt and two minor league pitchers for Lilly, Theriot, and $2.5MM tweets Yahoo's Tim Brown.

1:03pm: Lilly and Theriot for DeWitt is done, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

12:53pm: Stark tweets that the Dodgers and Cubs are on the verge of a deal that would send Lilly and Theriot to L.A.  Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times agrees.

12:34pm: Blake DeWitt and at least one other player would go to the Cubs as part of a Lilly-Theriot deal if the sides can reach an agreement, tweets Rosenthal.  The inclusion of Theriot will seal the deal from the Cubs' point of view, tweets Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Lilly doesn't appear to have many suitors aside from the Dodgers.

11:39am: The latest on Cubs southpaw Ted Lilly…

Blue Jays May Keep Downs; Asking Price Still High

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6:51pm: The Blue Jays aren't lowering the asking price for any of their relievers, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). Toronto's front office has told teams around the league that they'll keep their relievers, offer arbitration and receive draft picks if they don't see offers they like, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).

3:12pm: Rival teams believe the Blue Jays may end up keeping Scott Downs, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos continues to drive a hard bargain, so the Blue Jays may keep the lefty and offer him arbitration after the season. 

At least one team might meet Toronto’s demands. The Twins, who traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, haven’t stopped pursuing Downs, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). However, the Twins are “not likely” to acquire Downs as it stands now. The Red Sox are not at the forefront of the Downs discussions, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (Twitter link).

Downs may be pitching in Toronto after the deadline passes, but the Blue Jays are likely to lower their asking price for relievers Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor.

Odds & Ends: Cardinals, Abreu, Mets, Edmonds

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A few assorted links, as the trading finally picks up…

Morosi On Giants, Downs, Myers, Tigers

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Let's check out the latest updates from Jon Paul Morosi at FOX Sports….

  • The Giants continue to search for a left-handed reliever, with Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler injured. While we've heard the club had been eyeing lefties such as Will Ohman and Scott Downs, Morosi indicates that, like every other team that has inquired on Downs, the Giants weren't enthused by Toronto's asking price. CSNBayArea.com's Mychael Urban (via Twitter) reports that the Giants are "working hard" to complete a trade tonight, though there's no indication of whether it would be for bullpen help or another piece.
  • Starters like Ted Lilly and Brett Myers appear unlikely to be traded to Minnesota. The Twins would need to overpay to pry Myers away from the Astros.
  • The Tigers aren't looking to make a blockbuster deal, but could still make minor moves to upgrade their roster. The club doesn't want to "overexpose" their young players, which played a part in their acquisition of Jhonny Peralta. A bullpen addition is still a possibility for the Tigers, who were scouting the Blue Jays on Wednesday night.

Twins Acquire Matt Capps For Wilson Ramos

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As soon as Joe Nathan announced that he would undergo Tommy John surgery, the back end of the Twins' bullpen became a lot less scary. Four months later, the Twins obtained one of the top relievers available, acquiring Matt Capps and $500K from the Nationals for left-hander Joe Testa and highly touted catching prospect Wilson Ramos.

Capps, 26, has 25 saves and a 2.80 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. He earns a base salary of $3.5MM this year ($1.3MM remains) and can be retained as an arbitration-eligible player for 2011. Capps will close games for the Twins and Jon Rauch will move to a set-up role.

Ramos, 23 in August, placed 58th among all MLB prospects on Baseball America's preseason list. The catcher has hit .241/.280/.345 at Triple A with five homers this season. His offense has fallen off since last year, but Ramos has thrown out 19 of 38 would-be base stealers. Joe Mauer's presence in Minnesota made Ramos expendable for the Twins.

Testa has a 5.50 ERA between high A and AA with a combined 8.3 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 36 relief appearances. The 24-year-old has yet to pitch above AA.

Yahoo's Tim Brown, Scott Miller of CBS Sports, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports all contributed updates to the story as it broke. 

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