Odds & Ends: Loux, Uribe, Dipoto, Cubs, Phillies
Links for Thursday night, following Juan Uribe's two-homer, six-RBI inning….
- Barret Loux had a second throwing session for scouts today, according to Brian McTaggart and Jeff Seidel of MLB.com. The Astros, Marlins, Rangers, Cubs, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Phillies and Mariners watched the free agent first-round pick throw between 50 and 60 pitches.
- Uribe's 2010 performance should give him a handful of options in free agency this winter, tweets ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff isn't sure that Jerry Dipoto is the right person for the Mets' GM job, even if Dipoto were available.
- Jim Hendry tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that Greg Maddux will remain in the Cubs' organization next year. Upon being hired as Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers suggested that he'd like to put Maddux on the Diamondbacks' payroll. The four-time Cy Young winner is flattered by the interest, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Hendry also conducted his second official interview in his search for the Cubs' next manager, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Ryne Sandberg is the latest candidate to interview with Hendry, after Eric Wedge did so last month.
- MLB.com's Todd Zolecki breaks down some of the key roster moves that have led to the Phillies' NL-best record this year.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Fusco, Thome, Cubs, Jeter
On this date in 1998, former New York Highlander and St. Louis Brown Red Hoff passed away. At 107 years, four months, and nine days old, the left-handed pitcher had the longest life span of any player in Major League history, out-living his closest competition by more than five years. He pitched to a 2.49 ERA in 83 innings from 1911-1915, but never played after serving in World War I.
Here are a few interesting links from around the blogosphere…
- Phoul Balls interviewed Low-A Greenville manager and former big leaguer Billy McMillon.
- SPANdemonium chatted with Greg Schaum about the Royals' farm system, arguably the best in baseball (well, it's not really all that arguable, it is the best).
- U.S.S. Mariner chimes in on the Carmen Fusco firing in the wake of the Josh Lueke fallout.
- Prospect Insider looks back at the trades Jack Zduriencik made during his first year as Mariners GM.
- Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors examines if Jim Thome was the best signing of the offseason.
- The Few, The Proud, The Braves compares Brian McCann to David Ross.
- SDSports.net wonders if Luis Durango has a future with the Padres.
- Cubs Pack projects Chicago's 2011 payroll.
- Yankeeist asks what kind of contract Derek Jeter will get next season.
- The Nats Blog looks at Adam Dunn's place among the best home run hitters in history.
- The Hardball Times matches up each of the 30 teams with a character from The Simpsons.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes
With 18 games remaining in the season, Brian Fuentes' 2011 vesting option is officially out of reach. The 35-year-old's contract included a $9MM option for next season that would vest if he finished 55 games, but an April back strain knocked him off pace early. Having finished only 35 games this year, the left-hander is heading toward free agency.
When Fuentes signed his last contract, he was coming off a career year. In 2008, he saved 30 games and recorded a 2.73 ERA to go along with 11.8 K/9, turning that performance into a two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Angels. Despite saving 72 games over the course of the contract, Fuentes likely won't be fielding the same sort of offers this winter. His ERA (3.67), BB/9 (4.0), and K/9 (8.3) over the last two years have all fallen off slightly since his final seasons in Colorado, and at 35, he's not getting any younger. Teams didn't hand out many multi-year guarantees to last year's crop of free agent relievers, and Fuentes is part of a free agent class that includes other left-handed options like Scott Downs, Pedro Feliciano, Hisanori Takahashi, and Will Ohman.
Fuentes has been used as a closer for the majority of the last few years, and he'll aim to be paid like one. However, with only a handful of teams expected to be in the market for a closer, and many feasible options available, clubs might view Fuentes as a setup man instead. Being able to call on the southpaw in any middle or late inning rather than waiting for the ninth would allow a team to better take advantage of his primary strength: retiring lefties. While Fuentes has always handled left-handed hitters better than righties, his splits are particularly disparate this year – right-handers have a .757 OPS against him, compared to just .350 for left-handers.
A multi-year contract and a chance to close figure to be at or near the top of Fuentes' wish list this winter, and it's possible that a team willing to overpay for saves will provide him both. If not, the lefty could end up inking a short-term deal, perhaps with an option year, to be the primary left-handed setup man for a contender.
Odds & Ends: Choo, Larish, Fox, Maya, Orioles
Links for Sunday evening as the Dodgers and Giants battle it out in Los Angeles..
- Shin-Soo Choo is reminding his former team, the Mariners, of how talented he is, writes Doug Miller of MLB.com. Seattle sent Choo to Cleveland in a deal for Ben Broussard in 2006.
- Jeff Larish is enjoying his second stint with the A's, writes MLB.com's Alex Espinoza.
- Twins manager Rod Gardenhire told Kelly Thesier of MLB.com that designating Matt Fox for assignment was not an easy decision.
- Yuneski Maya is excited to make his major league debut, writes George Von Benko in piece for MLB.com.
- Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun spoke to Cal Ripken Jr. who has high hopes for Manny Machado.
Cafardo On Jeter, Ortiz, Pavano, Kemp
Barring an incredible comeback or collapse, perennial playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Cardinals won't be playing meaningful October baseball this year. In his weekly Sunday column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe examines why these clubs have fallen short in 2010. He also shares a few hot stove notes….
- One American League executive calls Derek Jeter a "two-year, $8MM-a-year player on the open market," though the exec acknowledges that the Yankees will pay more than that to keep their long-time shortstop around.
- While David Ortiz believes that he could play first base for a National League team next season, he tells Cafardo that he'd rather stay in Boston and DH.
- Carl Pavano's ideal offseason would see him signing a multi-year deal with the Twins. His agent, Tom O'Connell, says Pavano would "love for something to work out" with Minnesota. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at Pavano's impending free agency earlier this week, he concluded that the right-hander might have trouble landing more than a one-year deal.
- Cafardo spoke to Dodgers officials who said they'd be very surprised if the club moved Matt Kemp this winter. One team official told Cafardo, "You never know in trades, but I’d guess we’d have to be pretty overwhelmed to give up on him."
- Fredi Gonzalez is widely considered the favorite to replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but the former Marlins skipper should be a candidate for the Cubs and Mariners as well. Jim Hendry and Jack Zduriencik both like Gonzalez's managerial style.
Twins Designate Matt Fox For Assignment
The Twins have designated right-hander Matt Fox for assignment, according to a team release. The move clears a spot on the Twins' roster for Ben Revere, who was selected from Double-A.
Fox, 27, made his first big league start this weekend, pitching 5.2 solid innings against the Rangers on Friday night. Revere, meanwhile, was Minnesota's first-round pick (28th overall) in the 2007 draft and was ranked by Baseball America as the team's fifth-best prospect prior to the season. In 406 plate appearances at Double-A New Britain this year, the 22-year-old hit .305/.371/.363 with 36 stolen bases.
The Twins’ 2011 Rotation
Anchored by a resurgent Francisco Liriano and a surprisingly strong campaign from Carl Pavano, the Twins currently sit sixth in the American League with a 4.10 ERA from their starting rotation. The rest of their rotation has primarily consisted of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Brian Duensing. Let's take a look at how things could shake out for 2011.
The Twins offered Pavano arbitration last year, and the jury was out on whether or not offering it was the right move after he accepted. Pavano's $7MM has been a steal for Minnesota though, as the right-hander has already thrown 189 innings of 3.52 ERA ball. Only Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have posted marks better than Pavano's 1.5 BB/9, and his 3.34 K/BB ratio is 18th in the Majors (with Liriano and Baker ahead of him). The Twins will certainly offer Pavano arbitration again — he currently qualifies as a Type A free agent. He may decline and seek multiple years on the free agent market, but there's also the chance that he finds those multiple years in Minneapolis, where he and his signature mustache have developed a cult following.
Liriano is arbitration-eligible for a second time and figures to see a nice raise on his $1.6MM salary this season. If the Twins are convinced of his health, they may look to lock him up before 2011 as they did with Baker pre-2009 and Blackburn pre-2010.
Baker's extension has been far more successful than Blackburn's, who temporarily lost his rotation spot to Duensing after being optioned to Triple-A Rochester in late July sporting an ERA of 6.66. Since returning, Blackburn seems to have gotten back on track, though. Slowey saw similar struggles early in the summer but came back to post an ERA just over 4.00 in July and August, including a 2.89 ERA over his last six starts before hitting the DL recently.
Duensing has been a breath of fresh air to a rotation that failed to acquire what many thought was a much-needed starter at the deadline. Overall, through 99 innings, Duensing's posted a 2.09 ERA and has a nice 2.0 BB/9. His 83.2% strand rate and 4.14 xFIP suggest he's due for some regression, however. Still, he offers the Twins some insurance in case Pavano departs, but who else could they call on?
Minnesota drafted Kyle Gibson in the first round of 2009, and he's risen quickly through the minors, reaching Triple-A in just one season with an overall 2.96 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9. Considered a potential Top 10 pick, he fell to the Twins at 22nd due to concern over a stress fracture in his arm. Baseball America ranked him as the game's 22nd-best prospect on their mid-season rankings.
Jeff Manship has filled in admirably for the Twins in long relief and spot starting in 2010, posting a 2.38 ERA through 22.2 innings. Like most Twins pitchers, he's not big on the strikeouts, but he limits his walks well.
Glen Perkins is another former first-rounder for the Twins, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with the organization to some extent after nearly filing a grievance over his service time in 2009. Perkins has struggled tremendously with a 5.88 ERA in Rochester this season, while allowing 10 earned runs in 10 innings with the big league club. David Bromberg, the Twins' #9 prospect entering the season, has a 3.75 ERA through 151.1 innings in the upper minors as well.
The Twins stand to enter 2011 with Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, and Duensing, though the latter two could be pushed for competition by someone like Gibson early in the season, or could give way if Pavano returns. Their pitching depth may not feature many top-of-the-rotation type arms, but should allow them a solid, consistent rotation through and through.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Carl Pavano
Carl Pavano isn't the best pitcher in the Twins rotation – that honor goes to Francisco Liriano – but he has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year. Pavano ranks second in the AL in walk rate (1.5 BB/9), third in innings pitched and 14th in ERA (3.52).
He currently projects as a Type A free agent, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Twins offer arbitration, like they did last year. If Pavano accepts, he will return on a one-year deal, presumably for more than the $7MM he makes in 2010. If he declines, the Twins obtain two top picks and the 34-year-old has to fend for himself.
Pavano could try to land a two-year deal on the open market, but teams must be wary of making a multi-year commitment to Pavano given his failed four-year $39.95MM deal with the Yankees. As a result, teams are likely to turn to Ted Lilly or Hiroki Kuroda if they're going to offer more than one year to a mid-thirties starter.
It's possible that some team likes Pavano enough to guarantee him a two-year deal, but his age and injury history suggest he's looking at another one-year contract. As a result, we could very well see a repeat of last offseason when the Twins offered arbitration and Pavano accepted.
Extension Candidate: Francisco Liriano
Francisco Liriano can be an inspiration to Stephen Strasburg, if the Nationals phenom has patience. Liriano took the American League by storm for 121 innings in 2006, but went down for Tommy John surgery in November of that year. In 2010, Liriano is again considered one of the best pitchers in the league.
The Minnesota lefty was handled cautiously in '08, as Strasburg probably will be in 2012. Three rough starts in April of '08 earned Liriano an extended stay in Triple A, long enough to prompt his agent Greg Genske to have the players union investigate potential service time manipulation. Had Liriano spent all of '08 in the bigs, he'd have about 100 extra days of service time and would have been eligible for arbitration after that season and for free agency after the 2011 season. An extra month or so in the Majors in '08 would've made Liriano eligible for arbitration for '09 as a Super Two.
Instead, 2011 will be Liriano's second arbitration year and he'll be eligible for free agency after '12. Liriano will be 29 heading into the 2012-13 offseason, and could earn a massive free agent contract. If there's any lingering bad blood from '08, you have to wonder if he'll continue going year-to-year.
On the other hand, Liriano could seek the security of an extension this winter in the Zack Greinke/Josh Johnson model. Greinke and Johnson were coming off low first-year arbitration salaries a touch below Liriano's current $1.6MM due to similar bumps in the road. They signed for four years and $38-39MM.
Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins
A look at the Twins players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season…
- First time: Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins
- Second time: Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, Pat Neshek
- Third time: Matt Capps, Clay Condrey
- Fourth time: J.J. Hardy, Jason Repko
Perkins, Neshek, Condrey, Repko, and Hardy are candidates to be non-tendered due to injuries or poor performance. Aside from Hardy, our common refrain applies: these guys could be retained cheaply even though they're arbitration-eligible, so some might stay. In our August 17th poll, only 15.5% of you predicted Hardy will be non-tendered. A trade is one alternative, if the Twins find a new shortstop.
Slowey, Casilla, Young, Liriano, and Capps should be tendered contracts. Casilla should remain affordable. Slowey and Liriano could be in the $3MM range. Liriano's had his ups and downs, so despite the big platform year I wouldn't expect a huge payday. Young will be in good shape since he's working off a $2.6MM salary from this year. It's hard to find a past comparable for Capps, who was non-tendered after finishing a two-year deal, though he and Heath Bell might compare notes. Perhaps he'll get $6-7MM.