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Olney On Non-Tenders

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In his latest blog post (ESPN Insider required), Buster Olney discusses what he refers to as baseball's "next great economic disparity," referring to the large number of players, young and old, who stand to make more money through arbitration than they would on the free agent market. One executive referred to the arbitration process as "outdated."

Multiple general managers feel that there will be dozens of non-tendered players over the course of the next 41 days. In total, Olney and some baseball executives counted 93 "solid" non-tender candidates as they examined each team's roster (check out Tim's list here). If the final number comes close to that, nearly 300 players will be looking for a new team this offseason, vastly deflating the asking price for most free agents.

Olney names two non-tender candidates in detail, in J.J. Hardy and Bobby Jenks:

  • Hardy hit just .229 with 11 home runs this season after posting home run totals of 26 and 24 the past two seasons. He's also due a raise on his $4.65MM salary, and the Brewers have Alcides Escobar waiting in the wings. Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?
  • Jenks posted a mediocre line this season, while making $5.6MM. Olney speculates that he could receive as much as $7.5MM through arbitration. Roughly a dozen closers could be available this winter, making Jenks and his disappointing 2009 a tough sell at that price tag. Should the White Sox invest that much in him, or simply look for a cheaper alternative?

Olney feels that some big market teams could reel in non-tender candidates from small market teams for lower level prospects and wait to see if they pan out over the remainder of their time under team control. Additionally, he says that teams such as the Twins will be able to take fliers on non-tendered players and receive tremendous value.

What other non-tender candidates do you see emerging this offseason, and where might they land? Share your thoughts in the comments section.

Cafardo On Pujols, Mauer, Holliday, Damon

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a new column up, and he addresses a few topics of interest from around the majors. Some highlights….

  • Cafardo examines the crossroads that superstars Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer will soon face with their current clubs. He passes on this quote from one baseball official: "I think Mauer has a better chance of staying in Minnesota than Pujols in St. Louis. Mauer is from Minnesota, while you have to give Pujols an A-Rod type contract and I’m not sure the Cardinals would do it."
  • His source thinks that the best way for the Cardinals to keep Pujols in St. Louis is to continue showing him they're committed to going after championships by making moves like this year's Matt Holliday acquisition.
  • Cafardo sees "no downside" to the idea of Holliday patrolling left field in Fenway next season. From an on-field standpoint, that statement could apply to virtually every team in the league, but the Red Sox are probably one of the few clubs that could absorb the financial blow.
  • Johnny Damon could be a good fit in the south side of Chicago, according to Cafardo. The White Sox will be looking for a leadoff hitter, and it's still unclear whether or not Damon will be back in New York.
  • Casey Kotchman may not fit into Boston's plans next year, but Cafardo thinks he could also be a solid addition to the White Sox — especially if Chicago doesn't retain Mark Kotsay.
  • Cafardo wonders why a power-hitting right-hander, like the New York Mets covet, would want to play in Citi Field, which he calls a "death valley" for righties.

Twins Notes: Mauer, Morneau, Valencia

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MLB.com's Kelly Thesier answered a few e-mails from fans in regard to what Minnesota might have up its sleeve in the offseason, and here are some of the most notable bits of news from the piece… 

  • Thesier said that though talks between the Twins and Joe Mauer about a contract extension  haven't yet begun, "don't take Mauer's patience to mean that the catcher isn't interested in signing an extension."  Thesier also noted a possible good omen for Minnesota fans — Mauer's agent, Ron Shapiro, also represented single-franchise stars Kirby Puckett and Cal Ripken Jr.
  • Justin Morneau should be recovered from minor wrist surgery in four weeks' time, and looks to start rehabbing his injured back by the middle of November.
  • Top prospect Danny Valencia will need a big performance in spring training to win the third base job, given that the 25-year-old didn't even receive a call-up last September.
  • Money may be the only thing that prevents Minnesota from re-signing Orlando Cabrera, since the Twins "appreciated" his contribution to their AL Central crown.

Odds & Ends: Ricciardi, Sabathia, Chapman

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Links for Monday…

  • Former Padres GM Kevin Towers told Bill Madden of the New York Daily News recently "it's just a matter of when" the team trades first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
  • The Astros claimed outfielder Jason Bourgeois off waivers from the Brewers, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart via Twitter.  Bourgeois, 28 in January, hit .316/.354/.401 in Triple A while playing all three outfield positions.  In other Brewers-related news, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel says the team retained Mike Burns and Adam Stern on minor league deals.
  • Don Mattingly is discussing his future with the Dodgers, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
  • I missed this October 5th article from Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  Elliott talked to former Blue Jays president Paul Godfrey, who was frank in his opinions of ex-GM J.P. Ricciardi.
  • Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times says the Angels bid $140MM for C.C. Sabathia last winter, but Olney says "the Angels bid a firm $100MM and discussed increasing their offer to $120MM."
  • Andy Pettitte admitted to Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times, "I think everybody knows I wasn't real happy with the contract.  But I wanted to take it and come back here and have a chance to do this."  Pettitte ended up earning about $10MM in 2009, but only $5.5MM was guaranteed.
  • ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. says on Twitter that Aroldis Chapman "had good conversations" with Yankees GM Brian Cashman and other team execs at yesterday's game.  Meanwhile, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian says that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos finds signing Chapman unrealistic for his club.  Logically, the Chapman bidding should heat up after the World Series.  The 21-year-old lefty is meeting with the Cardinals, Orioles, and Red Sox this week.
  • Aaron Gleeman says it's reasonable for fans to call for Twins closer Joe Nathan to be traded, but not because he allowed a postseason home run to Alex Rodriguez.
  • NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman says reliever Scott Atchison hopes to return to MLB in 2009.  Atchison, 34 in March, elected free agency in November of 2007 after posting a 4.11 ERA in 30.6 relief innings for the Giants.
  • Jim Seip of the York Daily Record writes about the beginning of Ken Rosenthal's career.
  • John Bonnes attempted to extract info about Joe Mauer's future with the Twins, talking to GM Bill Smith.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Gonzalez, Thome, Hinske, Red Sox, D’Backs, Twins

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On this date 64 years ago, the Dodgers announced the signing of Jackie Robinson, who would become the first African-American to play major league baseball since the 1880s. Robinson would spend the '46 season with Triple-A Montreal, hitting .349. The next season he would hit .297/.383/.427 and help the Dodgers to the National League pennant. With the Hot Stove season only days away, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Sox and Pinstripes looks at what it would take for the Red Sox to land Adrian Gonzalez.
  • Phlavio's Corner attempts to fix the Diamondbacks in three moves or less.
  • Around the Majors takes a look at the free agent class of shortstops.
  • MLB Notebook breaks down the market for Jim Thome.
  • Nick's Twins Blog makes an off-season blueprint for the Twins and projects next season's roster.
  • Capitol Avenue Club examines what the Braves can do to reload the bullpen in 2010.
  • Talking Chop says the Braves need to add a power-bat this off-season, in part to protect Chipper Jones.
  • Marlin Maniac sees Eric Hinske as a good fit for the Marlins.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Odds & Ends: Mariners, Beltre, Ramirez

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Happy birthday to Hall-of-Famer Whitey Ford and (future Hall-of-Famer?) Zack Greinke.  MLBTR's gift to these two star pitchers is this batch of news items…

  • John Hickey of the Seattle PostGlobe outlines some of the holes that the Mariners have to fill for 2010, and speculates that free agent and Los Angeles resident Adrian Beltre might be targeted by the Angels and Dodgers.
  • Peter Gammons thinks that if it weren't for Manny Ramirez's player option, the Dodgers would part ways with the controversial left fielder, reports WEEI's Alex Speier.
  • MLB.com's Steve Gilbert writes that if Conor Jackson can stay healthy in the Dominican Winter League, he can avoid being non-tendered by the Diamondbacks.
  • Joe Mauer's big brother Jake has been named the new manager of the Twins' Class A-Advanced affiliate in Fort Myers, reports Benjamin Hill of MLB.com.
  • Nationals principal owner Mark Lerner discussed Jim Riggleman's chances of being named manager, some recent front office hires and his club's overall plans for the future in a chat with Bill Ladson of MLB.com.

Odds & Ends: Sano, Towers, D’Backs, Fehr

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Links for Wednesday…

  • Kevin Towers has a standing offer from the Red Sox, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  For now, Towers plans on taking a few months off.  In contrast, a week ago ESPN's Buster Olney wrote that "there would appear to be excellent odds that Towers will land with the Yankees as a special assistant sometime in the months ahead." 
  • The Cubs' contract with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo is official.
  • Miguel Angel Sano received his U.S. work visa, according to SI's Melissa Segura.
  • The new Rays hitting coach is Derek Shelton, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic crafts an offseason plan for the Diamondbacks, who have a decent amount of money to work with.  We did our Offseason Outlook for the team back in September.
  • J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics says tendering a contract to arbitration-eligible right fielder Jeff Francoeur is probably worthwhile for the Mets.  I don't sense that non-tendering him is a serious consideration.
  • Donald Fehr will receive an $11MM parting gift when he steps down from his MLBPA position, says ESPN's Amy K. Nelson.  The players were mostly in favor of the decision, according to Curtis Granderson.
  • The Rangers met with Jim Crane's group Tuesday, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  Two more potential investing groups are scheduled.
  • Backup catcher Mike Redmond told MLB.com's Kelly Thesier he plans on playing next year, whether or not it's with the Twins.
  • 41-year-old righty Keiichi Yabu also hopes to play in 2010, says NPB Tracker's Ryo Shinkawa.
  • Reliever George Sherrill has no hard feelings about the Orioles trading him to the Dodgers, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
  • MLB.com's Dick Kaegel talked to Zack Greinke, who was characteristically blunt.
  • In a Saturday post, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts said he'd like to see how GM Ned Colletti handles the decreased payroll flexibility once his young players reach arbitration.  Weisman is even-handed in his assessment of Colletti, but here's a funny quote: "I don't laud him for retaining the young core of the team: Kershaw, Kemp, Billingsley, Broxton, Martin, et al. Knowing not to dump those guys is like knowing not to show up to work in your underwear."

Cafardo On Drew, Reynolds, Gonzalez

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In his piece on Don Mattingly's interest in a managerial position, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo brings us some nuggets of information from around the majors:

  • Stephen Drew is expected to be shopped by the Diamondbacks this offseason and "there should be" discussions with the Red Sox.  Cafardo wonders if hitting in a more patient lineup could boost his OPS (.748 in 2009).
  • More on the D-Backs as Mark Reynolds fell three days shy of being classified as a Super Two.  Reynolds will earn $425,000 in 2010 instead of something in the neighborhood of $5MM.
  • Cafardo suspects that Boston will go after Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez but asks, "do the Sox have enough players to give San Diego?"
  • Twins pitcher Ron Mahay wants to stay in Minnesota but won't rule out a return to Boston.
  • Speaking of returns, Mike Hargrove is campaigning for another opportunity in Cleveland but might be "too old school".  According to a report from Terry Pluto earlier today, Hargrove has not been interviewed for the job.
  • Cafardo says to look for former Padres general manager Kevin Towers to become an assistant or special adviser with another club.  Towers said earlier this month that he doesn't want to be in an office if he isn't the GM.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Twins, Mets, Rockies, Delgado, Nady, Butler

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On this date six years ago, Aaron Boone ended the ALCS with an 11th inning home run off of Tim Wakefield. Yesterday we learned that Boone is likely to retire, ending his 12-year career. With this season's LCS underway, 26 teams are already in the Hot Stove season. Let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Discussion: Twins’ Offseason

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We'll get into the Twins' Offseason Outlook in a few weeks, but fans are eager to discuss the team's 2010 plans now that they've been eliminated from the playoffs.

Once again the Twins have question marks on the left side of the infield.  Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera are free agents, leaving Brendan Harris and Nick Punto as the main internal options.  Adrian Beltre is the most intriguing affordable free agent option at the hot corner.  Marco Scutaro is the top available shortstop, though he's coming off a career year.  The Twins could also look to the trade market – how about Dan Uggla and J.J. Hardy?

The Twins also must decide whether Delmon Young's final month of the season is a sign of things to come.  Another .284/.308/.425 performance won't be acceptable from their left fielder.

MVP frontrunner Joe Mauer is signed through 2010, and one of the Twins' top offseason priorities is to extend their catcher.

As for the rotation, August acquisition Carl Pavano is up for free agency.  The Twins should consider re-signing him or someone similar – they have question marks after Scott Baker.

Does it make sense to trade closer Joe Nathan to free up payroll and fill some of these holes?  Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune thinks so, and his colleague Michael Rand debates the finer points.

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