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Thoughts On The Johan Santana Trade

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Seems that this deal is official enough to evaluate.  We know for a fact that the Twins will receive Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra.  The general consensus seems to be that Twins GM Bill Smith passed on other offers that were better than this.

If Smith had taken the Yankees’ best offer, he’d have an MLB-ready pitcher who was very recently regarded as the game’s best pitching prospect (Phil Hughes).  He’d also have a solid regular center fielder in Melky Cabrera.  And the Twins would’ve gotten a couple of upside players on top of that.

Boston’s top offer was better as well.  The Twins could’ve filled center field, shortstop, and closer needs immediately with Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson.

But that’s just my take.  The best folks to evaluate the Twins’ return will be Baseball America, Keith Law, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein.  The Twins could very well come out smelling like a rose; they just chose riskier, less proven players.  As for the Mets, Omar Minaya deserves all the accolades for acquiring the best pitcher in baseball without surrendering his top prospect or anyone from the big league club.

Johan Santana Traded To Mets

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UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 4:22: Ken Rosenthal says the 72-hour window to sign Santana is now open.

UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 3:15pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today says an agreement to trade Santana to the Mets has been reached.  They’ll send Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey to the Twins.  The Mets still have to work out a six or seven year extension for Santana, according to Nightengale.  If this baby reaches its true conclusion we’ll sit down and analyze.

UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 2:55pm: More from Olney.  His sources say the Mets have the best offer, the Red Sox also made offers, and the Yanks are out.  Santana apparently asked the Twins to make a decision, wrap this thing up.  Wrap it up!  Olney is not sure whether F-Mart is part of the Mets’ offer.

UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 2:06pm: SI.com’s Jon Heyman weighs in.  He sees the Mets as the frontrunner, the Red Sox on the fringes, and the Yankees as nearly out of the running.  The Mets are offering Gomez/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra but not Fernando Martinez.  If they get Santana, the Mets will commit to only five years but with a high average annual value of $22-25MM.

UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 1:11pm: WFAN’s Mike Francesa believes the Twins upped their offer to five years, $100MM for Santana, but he rejected it.

UPDATE, 1-29-08 at 9:42am: ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Twins asked for each team’s "last and best offers" on Monday.  They could decide Santana’s fate as early as today.  Olney adds that the Yankees "appear to be not presently engaged whatsoever in the Santana talks."  Olney used to be a Yankees beat writer, so he’s bound to have a good line on this.

As for the Red Sox – Olney is hearing conflicting things about Jon Lester’s availability.  It’s possible that Lester could only be had in a more limited package – he, Coco Crisp, and not much else.

FROM 1-29-08 at 8:02am:

Over at MetsBlog today, Matthew Cerrone does a nice job summing up the Johan Santana situation. 

The New York Daily News indicates that the Mets are the one team pushing for Santana, but the Twins might use the Erik Bedard haul as a measuring stick.  Joel Sherman sees it as a Mets-Red Sox battle.  He notes that Carlos Gomez will skip the Caribbean Series not because of an impending trade but just to limit his games. 

We could finally get some kind of resolution with Santana this week.  Just to keep things interesting, check out Mark Healey’s note about the Dodgers "creeping into the picture."

Johan Santana Rumors

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UPDATE, 1-28-08 at 9:42am: LEN3 jumps on his blog to give a few more tidbits.  He doesn’t see the Twins adding a player or any kind of three-team scenario unfolding, based on talks with Twins officials.

FROM 1-28-08 at 9:09am:

I imagine there will be a daily thread for Johan Santana rumors.  Here’s the latest from LEN3.

  • The Twins "may soon tell teams…to step up with their best offers."  The Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets are all still in the mix.
  • The officials Neal spoke to disputed Buster Olney’s suggestion that Jon Lester was off the table.
  • The Twins still want a big ol’ package from the Mets that includes both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.
  • Meanwhile, Sid Hartman at the same newspaper quotes the Twins’ assistant GM as saying their four-year, $80MM offer remains on the table.  Santana doesn’t seem likely to relent that far, and a trade may be a phone call away.

Nathan Waits For Santana Resolution

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The AP has some quotes today from Joe Nathan and his agent.

  • Whether he re-signs with the Twins or hits the free agent market after the ’08 season, Nathan isn’t playing for a discount again.  He said: I think we definitely gave them a really good deal this last time around. I felt I left quite a bit of money on the table, to be honest.  This time around, we expect it to be different.
  • Nathan’s agent expects the Twins to resolve the Johan Santana situation first.  They reached out to the Twins and had some conversations, but it didn’t go beyond that.  Now the ball is in the Twins’ court to come to Nathan and his agent.  Or, Nathan could be traded anytime between now and July 31st.
  • Nathan would like to pitch for seven or eight years.  As for his next deal, what do you think?  Four years, $60MM? 

Johan Santana Rumors

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UPDATE, 1-25-08 at 9:46pm: According to LEN3: I was told today that next week is a big week in terms of determining if and where Santana will be dealt.  The end is in sight, then?

FROM 1-25-08 at 9:30am:

Time for your daily Johan Santana rumors post.

  • LEN3 talked to a Twins official who said there had been no recent extension talks between Santana and the Twins.  Meanwhile Sid Hartman at the same paper says the Mets and Yankees won’t go seven years, and he think the Twins’ 4/80 offer is fair.
  • Neal says that while Santana won’t necessarily veto any trade reached after Spring Training starts, it’s in everyone’s best interest to avoid dragging it that far. 
  • The Mets are still reluctant to part with Fernando Martinez, seemingly the dealbreaker right now.  Aaron Heilman could enter the mix though.
  • Neal believes the Yankee/Red Sox offers from December are still on the table.  This has been my hunch as well.  Which is why I think Boston can still pull this off.
  • If no deal can be reached soon the Twins might have to sign a stopgap CF like Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton.
  • Buster Olney on Johan’s warning signs: I talked with evaluators and scouts with three other teams since then, and they all saw the exact same thing in Santana: diminishment in velocity, relatively few sliders thrown, subpar (for Santana) performances. But two of the three believe the regression could be attributed to the Twins not being in the race, Minnesota not playing in a high-adrenalin situation, and Santana coping with a cracked nail. The third evaluator wonders, too, if Santana is OK. "If a deal is made, you could see there would be a complete physical, given the money involved," said the evaluator.

Twins Lock Up Cuddyer, Morneau

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UPDATE, 1-25-08 at 4:35pm: Cuddyer gets a $2.75MM signing bonus, $5MM in ’08, $6.75MM in ’09, and $8.5MM in ’10.  The Twins have a $10.5MM option for ’11 with a $1MM buyout. As far as I can tell Cuddyer would’ve become a free agent after the ’09 season.

Morneau gets six years, $80MM, a Twins record both in years and dollars.  I believe this buys out three years of free agency.  This should generate some good PR and help brace the fans for the loss of Johan Santana.  Plus, Bill Smith can say he made a solid offer to Santana. 

UPDATE, 1-25-08 at 1:35pm: Charley Walters says Morneau will get six years and about $75MM while Cuddyer’s deal is for three years and about $23MM plus a club option for the fourth year.

FROM 1-25-08 at 12:10pm:

The Twins are planning a press conference to announce multiyear contracts for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer; these deals were certainly reached quietly.  According to KARE 11 TV’s Twins source, the players will be with the Twins "deep into the new stadium."

Morneau signed for ’08 at $7.4MM recently, while Cuddyer had yet to sign.  LEN3 had reported about a week ago that the Twins would discuss multiyear deals with both, but not until after the Johan Santana situation was settled.

Church As Part Of A Santana Deal?

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald has some info on a Johan Santana possibility, and it isn’t the usual rehashed stuff.  He writes:

A package the Twins could receive will probably not include both of the Mets’ top outfield prospects, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez. There are indications that Martinez would be in the deal, along with major league outfielder Ryan Church and at least two other prospects. Starter Mike Pelfrey could be part of the deal as well….

Would Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Church get it done?  Maybe not a fan-pleaser but you’d have guys who can contribute now and others that can develop into superstars.  Would Michael Cuddyer still be a center field candidate if the Twins acquire Church?

Johan Santana Rumors

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SI.com’s Jon Heyman and the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III recently weighed in on the Johan Santana situation.

  • Neal says the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees have all had recent discussions with the Twins about Santana. He says the Twins have "stepped up their efforts" to make a deal before Spring Training.
  • Heyman believes the Mets have taken the lead.  He thinks it would take five or more prospects, and submission by the Red Sox and Yankees. 
  • Heyman says the Twins may prefer Carlos Gomez over Fernando Martinez.  That would be good for the Mets, who do not want to part with Martinez.

Odds and Ends: Cano, Colon, Lowry

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Here are some links I’ve rounded up this morning.

  • In theory, Robinson Cano would be open to a long-term deal. River Ave. Blues recently took a look at how historically good Cano has been so far, and suggest the Yankees lowballed him with their arbitration submission.
  • Baseball Prospectus’ Derek Jacques saw Bartolo Colon pitch in the Dominican League Finals, and lends his evaluation.  Colon was not impressive, but not terrible.  It doesn’t seem like he will get the two-year deal he wants.
  • The Brewers will bring Abraham Nunez to camp.  Versatile, but a drain on offense.
  • Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune notes that the White Sox aren’t done yet.  The Joe Crede situation should linger into spring.  Gonzales also mentions that the Giants are "listening to offers for Noah Lowry."
  • A factual look at whether Omar Minaya really stockpiles Latin American players.
  • The Astros can’t settle their gaps with Mark Loretta or Jose Valverde, and Ed Wade expects the team to go to its first arbitration hearings in over a decade.  Wade has set a deadline of this afternoon and will go to hearings otherwise.  Loretta asking for $4.9MM seems particularly off.
  • Matthew Cerrone takes an educated guess on the current Johan Santana situation.
  • Some interesting quotes from XM Radio from Michael Cuddyer and Scott Boras, separately.

Johan Santana Rumors

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I know some of you crave daily Johan Santana updates…today we’ve got a blurb from Charley Walters:

The Twins say they’re not panicking while holding out for the best deal for Johan Santana. But word within baseball circles is that offers by the New York Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Boston Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Best bet now for a trade of the two-time Cy Young Award winner appears to be with the New York Mets in a deal that would not include fast-rising hitter Fernando Martinez.

Yikes – from those solid Yankee/Red Sox offers to a Martinez-less Mets package?  If that happens then I would say Bill Smith overplayed his hand.  Kat O’Brien recently talked to Smith, but wasn’t able to get much out of him.  She believes the Yanks, Red Sox, and Mets "all retain some interest."

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