Cafardo’s Latest: Hot Stove, Twins, Gordon, Pedro
Nick Cafardo from the Boston Globe has a nice article up catching up on some Hot Stove news, with a few other odds and ends tied in. Let’s hit the highlights here:
- Cafardo seems to think the Yankees could entice C.C. Sabathia to pitch on the East Coast, and that the Angels would be crazy not to re-sign Mark Teixeira at whatever the cost. He also points out Joe Maddon’s connection to Francisco Rodriguez from his days as a coach with the Angels, and covers other top names such as Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, Matt Holliday, and Garrett Atkins.
- The Minnesota Twins were ranked as the #1 team in young talent by the 2009 Bill James Handbook. Minnesota had ten players in the top 150: Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Carlos Gomez, Nick Blackburn, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Glen Perkins.
- The article includes a Q&A with Tom Gordon, who has high praise for the Phillies, particularly Brad Lidge. Gordon says that having avoided Tommy John Surgery, he feels he can continue his career, and would love to pitch in Philadelphia next year. Gordon will understand if his option is declined, but is emphatic in saying he’s "going to pitch somewhere." Plenty of teams need bullpen help, and even with his injury, I can’t imagine him having a hard time finding work.
- Cafardo likes the idea of either Rocco Baldelli or Gabe Kapler as a fourth outfielder for the Red Sox.
- Would Pedro Martinez consider an incentive-laden contract to be Boston’s fifth starter next season?
- Red Sox catching prospect Mark Wagner has shown improvement the Arizona Fall League. This only adds to the Jason Varitek dilemma that Boston is faced with.
Holliday Derby Begins
According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Rockies have made it known to rival executives that left fielder Matt Holliday is available. Renck names the Red Sox, Phillies, Angels, Mets, Royals, and Nationals as potential suitors. I still find the oft-mentioned Red Sox idea to be far-fetched.
The Rockies would prefer to move corner infielder Garrett Atkins, however. The Angels, Twins, and Red Sox are cited as potential fits. However, other teams are surely aware of Atkins’ defensive struggles at third base and questionable hitting away from Coors Field. Renck says the Angels’ interest will depend on their ability to re-sign Mark Teixeira.
Starting pitching seems to be the Rockies’ target return for either player. They’d be giving up one year of Holliday and two of Atkins, plus the likely draft pick compensation.
Odds and Ends: Bowden, Cain, Young
Links for Tuesday…
- Chat today! 2pm CST.
- Joe Pawlikowski at River Ave. Blues looks at some under-the-radar free agents.
- MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy crunches the numbers and determines that it would be difficult to fit C.C. Sabathia into the Brewers’ payroll. I think they could retain Mike Cameron and sign Sabathia, but only if they’re willing to take payroll into the mid-$90MM range and forgo other improvements. Or, they could save $17-19MM by declining Cameron’s option and trading Fielder.
- Reds beat writer John Fay muses on the team’s offseason needs.
- Nationals GM Jim Bowden was diagnosed with a form of skin cancer this summer, but delayed surgery until after the season (a decision he regrets). He’s OK now and back to work.
- I get this question all the time: if the Yankees sign C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, do the Brewers or the Angels get the Yanks’ first-round pick? Baseball America’s Jim Callis explains that it’s determined by which player has the higher Elias rating. In this case it might be Tex by a hair, but the official rankings are not out yet.
- MLB.com’s Chris Haft heard the Twins covet Matt Cain and would be willing to trade Delmon Young for him. Haft does not believe the Giants would make the one-for-one swap.
- As of Monday night, the Mariners had not decided on their new GM. They are not supposed to make an announcement during the World Series, so today remains an option. It’s also been suggested they announce it tomorrow before the Series begins or get a waiver and do it on Friday (an off-day).
Twins Offseason Plans
SUNDAY: Further reading on the Twins: a Q&A with Smith conducted by La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Smith doesn’t tip his hand on whether he’d be more willing to trade an outfielder or a starting pitcher.
SATURDAY: Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press dishes on the Twins, who are holding their organizational meetings this weekend.
- GM Bill Smith is looking for help in the bullpen and middle infield. Powers still expects free agent Dennys Reyes to sign elsewhere; perhaps the Twins will sign a righty reliever. Nick Punto seems more likely to be re-signed. Another infielder will probably still be added.
- Powers sees Smith as more likely to trade a pitcher than Delmon Young. I agree – it’d be surprising to see the Twins give up on Young after one year.
- Smith had all kinds of trade discussions this summer, but ultimately felt some GMs were "trying to pick on the rookie."
- For more on the Twins, check out our Offseason Outlook.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bradley, Peavy, Young
A look at what is being written around the Blogosphere…
- Goat Riders of the Apocalypse looks at Milton Bradley and sees a clubhouse cancer, but can’t ignore his .999 OPS and wonders if he is the answer in right field for the Cubs.
- Pinstripes Published takes a look at the crop of free agent starting pitchers and speculates on who will sign with the Yankees, with the most likely being C.C. Sabathia, Jon Garland and Ryan Dempster.
- Chop-n-Change takes a look at which prospects it might take to land Jake Peavy, and wonders if a package built around RHP Tommy Hanson and OF Jordan Schafer could get it done.
- Talking Chop does not want to the Braves giving up prospects for Peavy and would rather see the Braves acquire pitching through free agency.
- First And Goal From Second Base warns that it will be a mistake for the Twins to trade Delmon Young.
- Twinkie Town takes a look at which Twins free agents could return (Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes) and the rest of the Twins offseason.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Castillo, Avila, Young
Links for Wednesday…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Mets GM Omar Minaya regrets the Luis Castillo contract. In another post, Minaya admits that in an ideal world he wouldn’t have to give multiyear deals to relievers, but that’s the way it is.
- The Tigers decided not to allow the Mariners to interview assistant GM Al Avila.
- Outfielder Luis Gonzalez would be open to re-signing with the Marlins, but it doesn’t seem likely. Gonzo hopes to play in 2009, as he’d like to reach certain statistical milestones.
- Viva El Birdos examines the Cardinals’ trade chips.
- Charley Walters wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins have trade talks with the Giants regarding Delmon Young. The Giants seem more likely to pursue a slugging infielder, however.
Week in Review: 10/5 – 10/11
Let’s kick things off this afternoon with the week in review…
- Rich Harden doesn’t need surgery, and he also doesn’t need to worry about where he’s pitching next year. The Cubs exercised his $7MM option this week. That one was a no-brainer, good news for Cubs fans.
- Elsewhere in the Midwest, the Twins exercised backup catcher Mike Redmond’s option for $950K. While that’s great news for Twins fans, the bigger story for them is that Delmon Young could be available this offseason. Personally, I think trading a 23-year-old outfielder with that kind of upside would be a colossal mistake. I realize the Twins feel the need to acquire some infield help, but trading a former #1 overall pick after one disappointing season when he’s just 23 holds zero logic in my mind. I still like the Young/Matt Garza trade for Minnesota in the long run.
- Couple of notes on the Brewers’ 1-2 punch, as C.C. Sabathia told reporters he’s open to playing anywhere, and wants to get his free agency over with quickly, and early in the offseason. As for Ben Sheets, despite his elbow injury, he is likely to be wearing a new uniform when 2009 comes around. His injury is apparently not too serious anyway.
- We saw a few different rumblings about a possible Jake Peavy trade. Peavy doesn’t like the idea of a full-scale rebuilding project in San Diego, and an interview with his agent hints that he may be willing to play for the Yankees. If he’d prefer to be somewhere closer to home (Alabama), the Braves could be an interesting suitor.
- Ryan Howard’s name has been tossed around as a potential trade candidate, but he’s likely to remain in place. One slugging first baseman from the NL will be available though, it seems: Tim takes a look at several potential landing sites for Prince Fielder. Trading Fielder is only a good idea if they can get a cheap, young, potential ace in my mind. With Sabathia and Sheets on their way out the door, the Brewers are going to need that offense working on all cylinders.
- For those teams that need power, but lose out on the Fielder sweepstakes (assuming he’s moved that is), there’s still power to be had. Here’s a list of this year’s free agent home run leaders.
- Tim covered his Offseason Outlook for the Twins, White Sox, Cardinals, and Astros.
- Curt Schilling will either pitch for a contender in the second half of 2009 or retire.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Greinke, Manny, Burnett
A look at what is being written around the Blogosphere…
- Royals Authority feels it will take a Johan Santana-type deal to trade Zack Greinke this offseason.
- Goat Riders Of The Apocalypse takes an in depth look at the Cubs ’09 roster and what changes could be made.
- Mets Geek (or is it Rays Geek?) thinks the most important move for the Mets this winter is to sign Manny Ramirez, but only for three-years and an option.
- River Ave. Blues agree that Manny should only be signed by the Yankees if it can be done for less than five years.
- MetsBlog calls Orlando Hudson a "must sign" this off-season.
- The Chuck Knoblog doesn’t see how the Yankees can sign two big free agent pitchers and a first baseman and still get the payroll down to $180-185MM.
- Drunk Jays Fans does not see any way A.J. Burnett will return to the Jays next season.
- First And Goal From Second Base wants to see the Twins trade Jason Kubel for a reliever.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Twins Exercise Redmond’s Option
According to a press release at MLB.com, the Twins exercised backup catcher Mike Redmond‘s $950K option as expected. Redmond, 37, hit .287/.321/.333 in 137 plate appearances.
Here is a look at the remaining free agent catchers.
Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
The Twins are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their likely commitments for 2009:
C – Joe Mauer – $10.5MM
C – Mike Redmond – $950K (club option)
1B – Justin Morneau – $10.6MM
2B – Alexi Casilla – $400K
SS – Brendan Harris – $432K
3B – Brian Buscher – $400K
IF – Matt Tolbert – $400K
IF –
LF – Delmon Young – $700K
CF – Denard Span – $400K
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $6.75MM
OF – Carlos Gomez – $400K
DH – Jason Kubel – $1.3MM+
SP – Scott Baker – $423K
SP – Francisco Liriano – $400K
SP – Kevin Slowey – $400K
SP – Nick Blackburn – $400K
SP – Glen Perkins – $400K
RP – Joe Nathan – $11.25MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $1.7MM
RP – Matt Guerrier – $950K+
RP – Pat Neshek – $435K
RP – Boof Bonser – $433K
RP – Craig Breslow – $400K
RP – Jose Mijares – $400K
Other commitments: Mike Lamb – $3MM
That’s about $54MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Kubel and Guerrier. The Twins were at about $57MM heading into the season, so they won’t have much to spend unless they raise payroll. Payroll had been rising by more than 10% a year until ’08. Maybe the Twins will return to the $70MM range.
The Twins could use more power in the lineup; third base is the most reasonable spot to upgrade. The Twins could consider acquiring Hank Blalock (if he can play third), Melvin Mora, Edwin Encarnacion, Casey Blake, Joe Crede, Adrian Beltre, or Garrett Atkins. Beltre is the best target, given his defensive prowess. We’ll see whether the new Mariners GM has a reasonable asking price for one year of Beltre (ie, no one from the current Twins’ rotation).
Shortstop is another need, and the Twins may be targeting free agent Orlando Cabrera. As I’ve said, I’d rather see them go for broke and sign Rafael Furcal. More likely, they will just bring Nick Punto back. But imagine Furcal and Beltre in ’09 instead of Buscher, Mike Lamb, Harris, Punto, and Adam Everett on the left side of the infield. It’d be a huge improvement, but the Twins would have to be able to handle paying $25MM for their combined salary.
I’d leave the pitching staff alone, as the rotation will ideally feature more Baker, Slowey, Perkins, and Liriano and no Livan Hernandez/Boof Bonser. Bonser could even have positive trade value.