Rosenthal’s Latest: Cabrera, Haren, Barrett
Rumor guru Ken Rosenthal checks in with a new column this afternoon.
- The White Sox are legitimately in the mix for Miguel Cabrera, but many stars would have to align for it to get done. Suitors with better prospects would have to balk, and the Sox would have to part with Josh Fields and Gio Gonzalez. Kenny Williams might even have to cash Jon Garland in and turn around and flip that prospect in a Cabrera deal. Regardless, it’s clear that Williams is once again thinking big.
- Let’s face it: the Twins aren’t retaining free agents Torii Hunter or Carlos Silva. You gotta know when to fold ’em – maybe it’s best to punt 2008 and trade both Johan Santana and Joe Nathan now. Rosenthal says that philosophy is gaining some steam in the organization. Both Santana and Nathan are only under contract for one year, but both are signed well below market prices. That means that any mildly competitive team could entertain the notion of acquiring one of them for a big boost. Baseball Prospectus values Santana at $25MM and 8.1 wins next year (he earns $13.25MM). They put Nathan at $15MM and 6 wins (he earns $6MM).
- The A’s are another team that could take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Billy Beane has Joe Blanton and Dan Haren, two solid young pitchers each under team control for three seasons. That’s a big advantage over the other frontline names who might be available. Santana and A.J. Burnett have one year. Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard have two. Haren for three years is huge. Blanton is under team control but Haren is actually under contract.
- The Rays have gotten in touch with Michael Barrett‘s people. Will Barrett’s Type A status become an issue? Only if the Padres dare offer him arbitration. If I had to guess I’d say they won’t offer, but it’s a close call. Troy E. Renck recently mentioned Barrett has drawn interest from six clubs, perhaps including the Rockies and Marlins. I’m sure the Rockies would not give up their #25 overall pick to the Padres just to sign Barrett. The Marlins’ sixth overall pick next year is protected.
Yankees May Require Cano For Santana
How about Ken Davidoff this winter? The Newsday reporter has been digging up some great hot stove rumors so far. Today, he has some new info about Johan Santana.
While Santana isn’t up for bidding quite yet, he should be soon after the Twins make their token offer. The Yankees will certainly be in on him. Davidoff says a package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a prospect wouldn’t cut it, even though those players are very valuable. The Twins are one of few teams that actually feel good about their pitching, so the focus is on acquiring a star position player. With that in mind, they’d demand Robinson Cano from the Yankees. Cano is more expensive than a Hughes or Cabrera, but the Twins would free up $13MM by dealing Santana. Plus you have to think Cano would be better for public relations/damage control.
Random speculation on players the Twins might covet for Santana: Josh Hamilton, Chris Young of Arizona, Jacoby Ellsbury, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, or Garrett Atkins.
In contrast to all of this, Ken Rosenthal speculates that the Twins would want "elite pitching" in return for Santana.
Did Twins and Cards Discuss Rolen?
Buster Olney is a trusted source for baseball info if there ever was one. Here’s an excerpt from his blog today:
The Cardinals are shopping Scott Rolen. Heard on Thursday that the Twins and Cardinals are talking about a deal for Rolen, who is owed $33 million over the next three years. The Cardinals presumably are asking for pitching in return, but because of the money involved and Rolen’s injury history, they might not get a lot, because this is more of a salary dump.
On the other hand, Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is obviously very close to the Twins. He spoke to two Twins officials yesterday who said they’ve had no discussions about Rolen at all. Could it be that those two officials didn’t speak to the Cards about Rolen, but another member of the Twins’ front office did? It wouldn’t be the first time baseball execs played coy with the media.
Johan Santana Rumors
Let’s check in on Johan Santana. It’s kind of a big deal when the best pitcher in baseball becomes available.
- Ken Davidoff spoke to an NL official who believes the Twins will hold onto Santana and try to win with him in 2008. Re-signing him long-term seems unlikely. Davidoff believes every team in baseball would be interested, but the Mets would have to part with Jose Reyes to get him. Nonetheless Don Burke says the Mets will "pounce" on Santana if he becomes available.
- Joe Christensen spoke to Twins people who believe re-signing Santana is almost impossible. The Twins won’t go to five years on an offer for him, and may lowball him the way they did Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva. The offer would at least pave the way for an intense auction during the Winter Meetings. A midseason trade is always a consideration too. Keep in mind that Santana does have a limited no-trade clause allowing him to block trades to 12 teams. He may use that as leverage.
- Christensen adds that the Yankees may covet Santana more than they do Miguel Cabrera. It’s still believed that they won’t part with Joba, Phil, or Ian though.
- Phillies GM Pat Gillick believes Santana "will be moved for sure."
Odds and Ends: Lowell, Sabathia, Polanco
I’m going to start up a catch-all Odds and Ends post for smaller rumors and notes today. Refresh to see it grow.
- A reader emailed me to tell me that Buster Olney said on XM Radio recently that there are talks of the Twins going after Scott Rolen. These reports can be tough to confirm, but there you go. UPDATE: Joe Christensen squashes this one.
- Mark Feinsand doesn’t think Epstein is keen on giving Mike Lowell even a three-year contract. He might get five on the open market. UPDATE: The Red Sox apparently have a three-year offer out to him, and he’s still mulling it over.
- The White Sox inquired about Bill Hall, but Kenny Williams and Doug Melvin couldn’t find a match.
- Baseball America weighs in on the Brad Lidge trade. BP’s Nate Silver gives his opinion here and here. He thinks the Phillies made a mistake.
- The Astros have contacted Jeremy Affeldt‘s agent. Also, Jim Molony speculates in this piece that speedy Josh Anderson could be expendable because of the Michael Bourn addition.
- Back to where it all began: the Dodgers have signed Chan Ho Park. No need for more starters now!
- Andy Pettitte hopes to tell the Yankees whether he’ll play by the New Year. Also, Ken Davidoff notes that the Yanks would prefer to trade Hideki Matsui over Johnny Damon, but Godzilla’s full no-trade clause would be the problem.
- Theo Epstein let Scott Boras pitch his entire client list last night, A-Rod included. There’s a very slight chance the Red Sox sign Eric Gagne, and a contract extension for Jason Varitek may have been discussed. Also I hear Boras did the hard sell on Bruce Chen. Just kidding. UPDATE: That slight chance for Gagne just went away, as he’ll be closing according to Boras.
- Mark Shapiro is preparing a contract extension offer for C.C. Sabathia; he’ll have to run it by the Dolans first. No surprise there. Paul Hoynes notes that Sabathia gets an extra $2MM for ’08 if he wins the ’07 Cy Young. Shapiro, by the way, would listen to offers on any player. I get the feeling the Indians could come from out of nowhere and do something big this winter.
- Could the Tigers send Placido Polanco to the Mets? Mark Healey suggests it.
- The Giants included a vesting option for 2009 in Omar Vizquel‘s deal. McCovey Chronicles weighs in.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Andruw, Rowand, Castillo
Ken Rosenthal has cranked out another rumor-filled column. A summary is below.
- The Marlins are insisting on Howie Kendrick in a Miguel Cabrera deal. The Angels are understandably reluctant.
- The Nationals could sign Andruw Jones long-term if they felt it was a bargain – say, $13MM a year. The Giants, White Sox, and Padres may be in the mix as well. Hmmm, White Sox and Boras? And if Scott Boras changes his tune and hunts for a one-year "rebuild value" contract for Jones, the Red Sox could get involved.
- The Phillies think Aaron Rowand will end up getting a 4/52 contract, though Rosenthal expects him to get the fifth guaranteed year. It’s previously been reported that Rowand is looking for a six-year, $84MM deal. Yikes.
- Aside from the Astros and Mets, the Indians, Padres, and Dodgers could get in on Luis Castillo. In the Tribe’s case, it would involve a scenario where Jhonny Peralta was dealt.
- Interesting note on Curt Schilling‘s $2MM in weight incentives – the target weights are aggressively low, and the weigh-ins will be done randomly. So, no cheating the system. By the way, isn’t it ridiculous that one Cy vote gets him $1MM? Sportswriters have given out single votes on a whim for much dumber reasons.
- The Red Sox are apparently asking a lot for Coco Crisp, more than the Twins are ready to give up.
- The Indians and Brewers have an excess of starters. Names that could hit the market include Cliff Lee, Dave Bush, and Chris Capuano. The Nationals have their eye on Lee. He came up as an Expo through Double A.
- The Nationals might be able to get something good for outfielder Ryan Church. In general, Jim Bowden desires a young MLB-ready starter like Kevin Mulvey or Kevin Slowey.
Twins Willing To Trade Garza
Terry Ryan hung on to his fine corral of young pitchers, and it’s hard to find fault with that. However, new GM Bill Smith is open to dealing one of them for a high impact young hitter.
Specifically, Joe Christensen says the Twins are willing to move 24 year-old Matt Garza, who posted a 3.69 ERA this year. The price would be huge – the names the Twins have in mind are Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, and Carlos Gomez. Upton, a favorite of theirs, seems like the least available of the three. Marc Topkin agrees that a Young-Garza rumor has been floating around.
If the Twins want to make a lesser deal, teams have also been asking about Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker. But those two aren’t chopped liver, and Rocco Baldelli doesn’t seem like enough. The Padres want in on the young pitchers, but aren’t willing to give up third baseman Chase Headley.
There’s also word in Christensen’s article that the Twins haven’t heard back from Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva regarding their weak offers. A more legitimate effort will be made to re-sign Johan Santana.
Mets Rumors: A-Rod, Kim, Silva, Kuroda
Plenty of new hot stove talk involving the Mets. Let’s get into it.
- First off, there’s the fact that Omar Minaya met with Scott Boras yesterday. Minaya says he talked to Boras about all the players he represents. Besides Mr. Rodriguez, Eric Gagne, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kenny Rogers, and Kyle Lohse may be considerations for the Mets. Indeed, there is some buzz that the Mets could bring Kim in to compete for a rotation spot.
- So what about A-Rod? He’d cost the Mets a ton of money, plus the #22 overall pick in the 2008 draft. It sounds like the Mets may hear Boras out as a courtesy, and even put in an offer they feel is reasonable. That number might fall far short of what it will take, as did theirs for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Barry Zito a year ago. That said, Mets insiders aren’t afraid of the full retail price of Rodriguez.
- The top priority remains pitching. Carlos Silva, Tom Glavine, Hiroki Kuroda, and A.J. Burnett are on the radar. On the relief side, Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch could again be in the mix. The Nats’ are said to have their eye on Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey. Gomez is a hot topic these days – the Twins want him too, and could offer up Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, or Scott Baker.
Rays Shopping Baldelli?
According to Marc Lancaster, Rays’ executive VP Andrew Friedman don’t have any players who are 100% untouchable. It’s just that a team would have to offer a package the Rays consider superior to Delmon Young, Scott Kazmir, or Carl Crawford. Not likely. (Though there is informed speculation that the Twins inquired on Young recently).
One Ray who might come at a more reasonable price is Rocco Baldelli. The guy just can’t stay healthy; Rays doctors are running all sorts of tests on him to figure it out. There’s no time like the present to buy low on the potential All-Star. Aside from the aforementioned Nationals (how about for Chad Cordero or Jon Rauch?), the Twins are rumored to be interested. The Twins have the young hurlers the Rays crave. In my opinion, a Baldelli/Boof Bonser swap might be fair. Hey, remember when the Rays were going to get Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yunel Escobar, and Kyle Davies for Baldelli? Damn.
The Rays continue to seek a defensive-minded shortstop and bullpen help, Lancaster says. Cesar Izturis and Kazuo Fukumori might be two free agents who fit the bill.
Odds and Ends: Fukudome, Burrell, Furcal, Rolen
Two of my favorite local blogs have good hot stove posts for us today as part of Odds and Ends.
- Bleed Cubbie Blue has a Cubs source indicating the Cubs are serious about both Hiroki Kuroda and Kosuke Fukudome. They could be signed quickly and fill team needs. This info jives with the recent info from Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald. While Kuroda recently filed for free agency, he’s open to offers from MLB and Hiroshima.
- South Side Sox has their suggested offseason plan up for the White Sox. I like the idea of acquiring Pat Burrell and/or Rafael Furcal with Type A draft pick compensation in mind.
- Curt Schilling was in Philly to watch the Eagles last night.
- It seems possible that the Nationals could sign Corey Patterson for center field if they can’t get one of the big names.
- La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins and Red Sox have touched base about Coco Crisp. He adds that the Twins and Rays have been having conversations, perhaps in reference to Rocco Baldelli.
- Mike Lieberthal may be on the radar for the Blue Jays.
- Scott Rolen is said to be open to waiving his no-trade clause, but the three years and $36MM on his contract will be a problem.