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MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
Blue Jays 47.80% (8,909 votes)
Yankees 23.67% (4,413 votes)
Angels 11.68% (2,177 votes)
Mariners 8.43% (1,571 votes)
Indians 8.42% (1,570 votes)
Total Votes: 18,640

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
Reds 55.88% (11,382 votes)
Phillies 19.96% (4,066 votes)
Braves 18.21% (3,710 votes)
Cubs 5.95% (1,211 votes)
Total Votes: 20,369

 

(poll link for app users)

A Breakout Starter In His Platform Season

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Carlos Rodón was selected third overall in the 2014 draft and was an immediate top prospect upon entering pro ball. He flew to the big leagues, making his MLB debut ten months after his draft date. Rodón was immediately a productive starter, pitching to a 3.75 ERA/4.20 SIERA across 139 1/3 innings as a 22-year-old. It would’ve been easy for the White Sox to envision him as another top-of-the-rotation arm in an organization that had already produced Chris Sale and José Quintana.

Rodón didn’t make the jump to that level over the next few seasons though. He was fine from 2016-18, working to a 4.11 ERA/4.46 FIP, but it seemed he’d plateaued as a league average arm. That’s useful but probably not what many fans had in mind. Then Rodón dealt with a series of injuries that called his future into question. He landed on the 60-day injured list each season from 2018-20, missing time with shoulder and elbow issues. When healthy enough to pitch over the last two seasons, he was unproductive, tossing 42 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball.

Those struggles even led the White Sox to cut ties with Rodón temporarily. Chicago non-tendered him last winter rather than offer him an arbitration salary that would’ve cost a bit more than $4MM. He spent a good portion of the offseason unsigned before returning to the South Side on a $3MM guarantee in late January. Even at such a low price point, the Rodón reunion looked like a questionable decision given his health woes and recent underperformance. In retrospect, it has proven to be a masterstroke by general manager Rick Hahn and the front office.

Rodón earned a spot in the starting rotation to open the year. He’s stayed healthy to this point and been nothing short of incredible. Rodón has worked to a minuscule 2.31 ERA across 89 2/3 innings. He has struck out a career-high 36.1% of batters faced, a mark that trails only Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow among the 146 pitchers with 50+ innings pitched. Rodón’s also fourth among that group (behind deGrom, Burnes and Max Scherzer) in strikeout/walk rate differential (28.9 percentage points) and SIERA (2.82). The big lefty earned a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career in recognition of that strong work.

Unsurprisingly, Rodón’s featuring the best raw stuff of his career. His fastball is averaging 95.9 MPH this season, a marked increase over his 92-94 MPH range in recent years. Rodón actually first experienced a velocity spike during a couple of relief appearances at the end of last season, but it wasn’t clear whether he’d be able to maintain that with a starter’s workload. He has so far, with no indication of slowing down.

He’s also added a bit more life on the heater at the top of the strike zone, and he’s throwing his slider with increased velocity. Both offerings have been plus, but it’s his fastball that has become almost unhittable. Rodón has generated a league-leading 147 whiffs on four-seamers this season, per Statcast. (His 17.1% swinging strike rate on the offering is tied for third among the 68 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fastbals). In 2018 — his most recent season of more than seven starts — batters hit .257 and slugged .422 off Rodón in at-bats ending with a four-seamer. This year, they’re hitting .180 and slugging .275 against the pitch.

It’s only been three months, but Rodón has performed at an ace-caliber level to this point. He famously threw a no-hitter against the Indians in April, and he’s had an additional seven starts in which he’s allowed three or fewer hits. Rodón has struck out eight or more batters in thirteen of his fifteen appearances, and he’s shown no obvious ill effects from the league’s foreign substance crackdown. In all likelihood, 2021 will mark his heaviest workload in five years, so he’ll need to continue to prove he’s capable of performing at a high level as his innings total piles up.

The White Sox are highly likely to win the AL Central, and Rodón has put himself in what appears to be a very strong future playoff rotation also including Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and one of Dylan Cease or Dallas Keuchel. He’s in line to again reach free agency this winter, where he’ll be one of the youngest and most productive starting pitchers on the market. There’s no question he’ll fare quite a bit better this time around.

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan Schoop Trade

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After a 7-3 loss to the Twins on May 7, the Tigers were a dismal 9-24, and Jonathan Schoop was hitting only .185/.217/.250 through his first 115 plate appearances of the 2021 season.  Since that date, however, things have greatly improved for both player and team.  Detroit has quietly gone 31-27 over the last two-plus months, while Schoop’s revived bat has been a big part of that success — the veteran infielder has hit .320/.368/.567 with 14 homers over his last 253 PA.

While the AL Central is far from a strong division, the Tigers’ surge can probably be seen more as a positive step forward for a rebuilding team than it is a hint of a surprise second-half playoff push.  Fangraphs still gives the Tigers a zero percent chance of reaching the postseason, and the club is both 11.5 games out of a wild card berth and 15 games behind the first-place White Sox.  As solid as Detroit has been since that May 7 nadir, this is still a team that looks like it will be selling at the trade deadline, and an impending free agent like Schoop stands out as a likely candidate to be moved.

Schoop has spent the last two seasons in the Motor City on a pair of one-year free agent contracts, and delivered some solidly above-average offense.  The 29-year-old has hit .277/.322/.469 with 24 homers over 545 PA and 131 games in a Tigers uniform, good for a 113 wRC+ and 118 OPS+.  While the right-handed hitting Schoop has been solid against righty pitching, he has been particularly productive against left-handers this year, with an .880 OPS in 98 PA against southpaws.

Looking at the Statcast numbers, Schoop has a subpar .322 xwOBA, lower than his .337 wOBA.  While he is making more hard contact than last year, Schoop’s hard-hit percentage is still exactly middle of the pack in the 50th percentile.  Schoop has improved his strikeout rate (at least in comparison to the rest of the league) over his two years in Detroit, though he still isn’t walking much, as his lackluster 5.7% walk rate in 2021 actually represents a career high over a full season.

A second baseman for much of his nine-year MLB career, Schoop has actually been more of a regular at first baseman this year, as the Tigers have given youngster Willi Castro most of the playing time at the keystone.  This new position will only increase Schoop’s trade value to potential suitors, as an interested team could deploy Schoop at either first or second base depending on the need, or shuttle him between the two positions based on matchups.  Schoop also has shortstop experience but hasn’t played the position since 2018.

Cash-wise, Schoop would be a pretty inexpensive addition for small-market teams, or bigger-payroll clubs looking to avoid a luxury tax bill.  His one-year deal is worth $4.5MM, so only around $1.6MM of that salary would still be owed to Schoop by July 30.

Injuries, long winning/losing streaks, and other swaps could drastically shake up this list in the coming days, but at the moment, let’s examine which teams might be the best fits for a Schoop deal between now and the trade deadline.

The Other Rebuilders

We can safely rule out the Diamondbacks, Royals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, and Marlins, since their attention will be focused on moving their own trade chips prior to the deadline.

On The Fringe

The Cubs, Cardinals, and Nationals are all under .500 and — according to Fangraphs — have less than a five percent chance at the playoffs.  Barring a big hot streak in the next two weeks, none of this trio will have much use for a rental player like Schoop, and could be selling players of their own.  (Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has already hinted that his team is more inclined to act as deadline sellers.)

The Braves are only slightly ahead with a 7.7% chance at a postseason berth, and Atlanta also has a losing record of 44-45.  Both the Nats and Braves might wait until pretty close to the last minute to sell since they’re still within striking distance in the NL East, though Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending ACL tear might realistically close the book on Atlanta’s chances.  Schoop is something of an imperfect fit anyway in Atlanta, as Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies have first and second base covered.

The Mariners are being given only a three percent chance at the playoffs, which perhaps seems a little slim considering Seattle is 48-43 and only 3.5 games back of a wild card slot (and seven games behind the Astros for the AL West lead).  Those low odds could speak more to the strength of the Astros and Athletics than a reflection of the Mariners’ talent, and if Seattle is still in the hunt by July 30, it wouldn’t be surprising to see aggressive GM Jerry Dipoto make an addition or two in an attempt to keep the Mariners’ postseason drought from reaching 20 seasons.  Schoop would be a nice upgrade for an M’s team that hasn’t gotten much from the second base position all year.

The Angels are behind the Mariners in the standings but are given a higher shot (14.5%) at the playoffs.  That might reflect the quality of the lineup reinforcements coming the Angels’ way, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton should all be back from the injured list prior to the deadline.  Jared Walsh and David Fletcher have first and second base covered for Los Angeles, though Walsh could potentially be moved back into right field duty in the event of a Schoop trade.  In all likelihood, however, the Angels are probably more likely to seek out pitching at the deadline rather than another right-handed hitter.

The Tigers and Indians aren’t frequent trade partners, and it remains to be seen whether Cleveland will be more apt to buy or sell at the deadline given all of its pitching injuries.  The Tribe have acted as both buyers and sellers at the deadline in recent years, however, and despite their struggles, they play in a weak division, have a 45-42 record, and sit 4.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Fangraphs only gives the Tribe a seven percent chance at the postseason, however, and the club has a very tough upcoming schedule, starting the second half with 10 games against the A’s, Astros, and Rays.  Beyond these factors, the Indians might also prefer to just stand pat with their current options at first and second base — powerful rookie Bobby Bradley has shown a lot of pop, while Cesar Hernandez has mostly gotten on track after a brutal April.

Not Great Fits

The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Astros are also teams with an abundance of right-handed hitting bats, filled first base/second base positions, and a greater need for pitching.  On paper, Toronto could get really creative and try Schoop (or even Semien) at third base, but that seems pretty far-fetched.  Now that Luke Voit is back from the IL, the Yankees are hopeful their first base issues have been solved, and DJ LeMahieu can now take over at second base.

The Reds likewise have Joey Votto and Jonathan India at first and second base, but given the team’s penchant for shaking up its infield alignment, Cincinnati can’t be entirely ruled out.  A scenario exists where Schoop is acquired, India is moved to third base and Eugenio Suarez is again moved to shortstop.  In all probability, this one is also a longshot, unless Mike Moustakas’ injury absence stretches even longer and the Reds feel the need for more infield help.

The Brewers love multi-positional players, and Schoop could provide help at second base (in the event of another Kolten Wong injury) or at first base, as Daniel Vogelbach and Travis Shaw are both injured and Keston Hiura has largely had a brutal season apart from the last couple of weeks.  However, the Brewers already acquired Schoop back in 2018, as part of a deadline day trade with the Orioles.  Schoop struggled so badly over 46 games with the Brew Crew that the team non-tendered him after the season, so a reunion between the two sides seems unlikely.

Though Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, and Tommy La Stella are on the injured list, the Giants already have a decent amount of infield depth even with this trio out of action.  Longoria and La Stella should both be back relatively soon while Belt is expected back at some point, even if his timeline is still uncertain.  Unless there’s a rehab setback somewhere, Schoop doesn’t look like a priority for San Francisco.

Slightly Better Fits

The Mets are known to be exploring more third base options, but the team could address the issue from within by acquiring Schoop to play second base and then moving Jeff McNeil into the third base mix.

The Rays and Dodgers each have an abundance of infielders, but neither team is shy about acquiring multi-positional depth, and might also prefer Schoop over less-experienced roster options.  Schoop could serve as a right-handed hitting complement to lefty swingers Ji-Man Choi and Brandon Lowe at first base and second base in Tampa, while L.A. could see Schoop’s addition as a way of freeing Chris Taylor to be deployed all over the diamond.

Sticking with the NL West, Schoop might be a better match with the Padres, who have left-handed hitters at first and second base in Eric Hosmer and Jake Cronenworth.  Schoop would very likely see more time at first base in this scenario, as Hosmer has struggled after a strong 2020 season.

The Phillies might have an infield opening with Alec Bohm sidelined by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, and Bohm has also struggled in his first full MLB season.  Jean Segura could be moved back to third base and Schoop installed at second, if Bohm needs a while to recover or if the Phils simply want to reduce his playing time for a more reliable veteran in Schoop.  The long history between Tigers GM Al Avila and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski could also help facilitate trade talks.

The Best Fits On Contending Teams?

No team has gotten less (by bWAR) from the first base position than the Red Sox, and Boston’s options have been further thinned since Marwin Gonzalez may begin the second half on the injured list.  Boston would probably prefer a left-handed addition to the lineup, but trading for Schoop is a simple way for the Sox to immediately upgrade what is pretty much the only real weak point in their lineup, and Schoop also provides some additional depth for Christian Arroyo at second base.

Matt Olson obviously has first base more than accounted for in the Oakland lineup, but the Athletics could use Schoop as part of their second base or designated hitter mix.  The A’s have gotten some nice results from the Jed Lowrie/Tony Kemp second base platoon, though Lowrie is always something of an injury risk and Kemp also gets a lot of playing time in the outfield.  Chad Pinder will be gone until well into August due to a hamstring injury, and Mitch Moreland simply hasn’t hit much this season as Oakland’s primary DH.  Schoop’s remaining salary is also manageable enough to fit into the Athletics’ limited budget.

The White Sox have had a vacancy at second base since Nick Madrigal was lost to a season-ending hamstring injury, and Schoop could also spell Jose Abreu at first base and see some time at DH.  While super-utilityman Leury Garcia has been a bright spot filling in at second, Schoop is a more proven option for a team that has serious postseason aspirations.  Chicago has already been linked to the likes of Trevor Story, Adam Frazier, and Eduardo Escobar in trade rumors, so the Sox clearly view the infield as a priority.  One obstacle — the Tigers and White Sox almost never make trades, with just a single swap between the two clubs since 1989.

The Rangers’ Unexpected All-Star

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The Rangers will have three representatives at tonight’s All-Star Game. Joey Gallo has been there before, and the slugger’s rare combination of light-tower power and athleticism could earn him a few more nominations before the end of his career. Kyle Gibson’s dominance this season has been surprising, but he’s an eight-year veteran with a generally solid track record. Few would’ve projected him to be an All-Star entering the season, particularly coming off a down 2020, but he was the team’s Opening Day starter. It wasn’t crazy to think he’d have a bounceback year.

Adolis García making the All-Star Game would’ve been inconceivable three months ago. He wasn’t even on the Rangers roster to start the year, having been designated for assignment so they could sign Mike Foltynewicz. In February, all twenty-nine other clubs were offered the opportunity to add García for nothing more than a 40-man roster spot and the standard $50K waiver fee. Each one passed. So García reported to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and began the year at the alternate training site.

In retrospect, each team made an error in judgment in not putting in a claim for García (as did the Rangers for designating him in the first place). It’s hard to assign too much blame around the league, though. At the time of his designation, García was soon to turn 28 years old with all of 24 major league plate appearances under his belt. An obvious combination of power and speed had made him a fairly well-regarded prospect in Cuba and in his days in the Cardinals system, but scouting reports also came with question marks about his plate approach. His 2019 season in the minors did him no favors in that regard; García popped 32 homers and swiped 14 bags, but he also reached base at just a .301 clip and posted extremely concerning strikeout and walk rates (30.1% and 4.2%, respectively).

Given his first extended big league run after being re-selected in mid-April, García has continued to actualize his physical tools at the highest level. The right-handed hitting outfielder is surprisingly tied for eighth in the majors with 22 home runs this season. He’s sporting an impressive .270/.312/.527 line across 333 plate appearances. He leads all rookie position players in FanGraphs WAR and looks to be the midseason favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

It’s an open question whether García can continue to succeed at this level. His MLB strikeout and walk rates this season (30.6% and 4.8%) are eerily similar to those he posted during his last Triple-A campaign. He’s frequently chasing pitches outside the strike zone, and his 17.5% swinging strike rate is ninth-highest among the 231 hitters with 200+ plate appearances.

There’s still some chance García’s aggressiveness undercuts his production moving forward. Some players have enough power and athleticism to succeed in spite of a poor approach. It’s possible García’s that kind of talent, but he’ll need more than half a season of great play to cement himself within that rare group.

Whether or not García’s performance takes a step back in the second half, there’s no taking away what he’s accomplished to this point. To earn an All-Star selection just five months after clearing waivers is an incredible achievement. Among the players whose talents will be on display tonight, García’s had arguably the most meteoric rise.

A Potential First Base/Corner Outfield Upgrade For Contending Clubs

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The Marlins are generally expected to move some players off the big league roster in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. They’re in last place in the National League East at 39-50, and FanGraphs gives the Fish just a 0.2% chance of reaching the postseason. Indeed, the Marlins already began selling last month, when they sent corner outfielder Corey Dickerson and reliever Adam Cimber to the Blue Jays.

Miami’s biggest decision over the coming weeks will be whether to trade star center fielder Starling Marte. The two sides are reportedly discussing an extension, with the expectation that Marte will be moved if they don’t agree on a long-term deal. But there’s another Miami hitter who should intrigue contenders, one whose production has flown a little more under the radar: Garrett Cooper.

Cooper wasn’t a top prospect coming up in the Brewers or Yankees farm systems, and he’s never been a name familiar to most casual fans. Since breaking into the majors, he’s always performed when given the opportunity though. Miami acquired Cooper from the Yankees before the 2018 season, but he spent most of that year on the injured list. He returned to play fairly well in 2019 but again missed time with injury, and he lost a month of the 2020 season amidst the Marlins’ team-wide COVID-19 outbreak last summer.

Upon being reinstated from the COVID IL last August, Cooper mashed down the stretch to help lead the Marlins to a postseason berth. He’s improved upon that production this season, putting up a .291/.387/.481 line over 238 plate appearances. He’s sporting a .288/.375/.488 mark since the start of 2020, and he owns a .284/.355/.457 line (122 wRC+) over 875 trips to the dish at the major league level.

Cooper’s had his share of health troubles, but there’s little question he’s a quality offensive player when healthy. His bottom line results are strong, and his underlying batted ball metrics are plus. Cooper’s in the 75th percentile or better this in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact rate. His peak exit velocity (114 MPH) is in the 92nd percentile, a reflection of his high-end raw power.

Unsurprisingly, the right-handed hitting Cooper has been a bit better against left-handed pitching than right-handers over the course of his career. He’s far from a platoon player, though, owning a productive .280/.362/.434 mark against same-handed hurlers. Cooper does strike out a fair amount and shouldn’t be expected to sustain this season’s .383 batting average on balls in play. But he makes consistent hard contact and uses the entire field, so it’s fair to expect he’ll continue to have his fair share of hits fall in. Even if Cooper’s BABIP dips toward his .337 figure from last year, he should remain a well above-average hitter based on his quality of contact and decent plate discipline.

The bat is the calling card for Cooper, who’s best suited at first base. With Jesús Aguilar at first in South Florida, he’s seen more time in the corner outfield than at his natural position in recent seasons. He’s not a disaster in the grass, but defensive metrics all agree he’s below-average, which isn’t surprising for a player listed at 6’5″, 235 pounds.

It’s worth noting that the Marlins needn’t move Cooper this summer if they’re so disinclined. He’s controllable via arbitration for two seasons beyond this one, and the Marlins could keep him around in hopes of making a run in 2022. There was some speculation about Miami moving Cooper last offseason after they signed Adam Duvall. There was no indication the Marlins came all that close to pulling the trigger on a deal, but it stands to reason clubs will again be in contact with general manager Kim Ng to gauge his potential availability over the coming weeks.

If Miami is willing to move Cooper, there are a handful of teams who look like strong fits on paper. The Dodgers and Padres were among the clubs interested in Cooper over the winter, and they’re amidst a tight race with one another and the division-leading Giants in the NL West. (Padres general manager A.J. Preller expressed interest over the weekend in upgrading his lineup). The Red Sox and Mariners have gotten very little from their first basemen, and Seattle’s Evan White might not return from a hip injury this year. The Braves could use corner outfield help.

Even perennially low-payroll teams could inquire on Cooper, who’s making just $1.9MM (with less than half of that sum still owed). The A’s and Rays could use more production out of the designated hitter spot. Indians first basemen have been among the worst in the league; while Cleveland might be falling out of position to buy for this season, they could acquire him with an eye towards 2022.

Cooper might not have the name recognition or long track record of some of this summer’s other trade candidates. He’s a quality hitter, though, the kind of player who would upgrade most teams’ lineups. Between his production and affordability, Cooper should pique the interest of a handful of contenders over the coming weeks.

Indians’ Recent Struggles Lead To Difficult Deadline Decisions

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A couple weeks ago, the Indians season seemed to hit a crossroads. The team was in a good place in the standings. As recently as June 26, Cleveland was sporting a 41-32 record, sitting only a game and a half behind the AL Central-leading White Sox. They were the only real threat to Chicago in an otherwise bad division.

The state of the roster, though, told a different story. Cleveland’s offense has underwhelmed all year, with the team’s strong run prevention keeping them in the race. The Indians were dealt a series of injuries to their top three starters — Zach Plesac, Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale — in fairly rapid succession, though. That left an unproven, inexperienced group taking the bump without the benefit of a high-powered lineup to back them up.

Not surprisingly, it’s been tough sledding for Cleveland in recent weeks. The Indians have gone just 4-10 over their last fourteen games, falling 7.5 back of the White Sox. They’re a more manageable four games back in the Wild Card race, but their skid has raised some questions about the team’s ability to stay in contention. Plesac returned from the IL this week, but the Indians are still without Bieber and Civale and continue to have questions about the lineup. FanGraphs gives the Indians just a 7.1% chance of reaching the postseason at this point, with their odds of winning the division down to 3.5%.

The front office is no doubt aware of those dwindling playoff odds. Indeed, Jon Heyman of MLB Network hears from rival executives that Cleveland has made some players on the big league roster available to other clubs in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

It’s not clear specifically which players are on the market, but there’s no indication the Indians are planning any sort of full-on teardown. Bieber and José Ramírez would be the top two players on the trade market were they made available, but it seems highly unlikely the Indians would market those kinds of controllable stars in response to two weeks of poor play. The Cleveland front office would probably figure to listen to offers on players with less club control. There aren’t many players on the Indians roster who stand out as obvious trade chips at first glance, though.

Second baseman César Hernández looks like the team’s most plausible trade candidate. He’s hitting .226/.305/.413 and has already tied his career high in home runs (15) this season. It’s a nontraditional shape of production for Hernández, who typically hits for strong averages and reaches base at a high clip without hitting for much power. While Hernández’s profile has changed in 2021, he’s been similarly valuable as before. His 95 wRC+ this year isn’t far off his career mark (99) and is essentially unchanged from his 2019-20 production (97). Hernández is making an affordable $5MM this season and comes with a $6MM club option (no buyout) for 2022.

Cleveland would figure to welcome interest in corner outfielder Eddie Rosario. He’s making $8MM, though, and wasn’t having a particularly good year even before landing on the 10-day injured list with an abdominal strain this week. The Indians have a handful of young relievers (James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Sandlin) who would figure to draw plenty of attention, but it’s not clear the team would consider moving any of them. Veteran relievers Nick Wittgren and Bryan Shaw would probably be more attainable but wouldn’t bring back franchise-altering returns.

More broadly, the Indians are facing an interesting few months as an organization. The controllable core of Ramírez, Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Franmil Reyes looks good enough to anchor a contender. They would obviously love for Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to produce enough to supplement that group. The farm system is regarded as one of the league’s best. It’s not inconceivable to see the Indians as a threat in the division in the coming years, even if the front office moves a couple veterans before the deadline in an acknowledgment of their increasingly slim playoff chances in 2021.

As the past few weeks have shown, though, there’s still plenty of work to be done to make the current roster a legitimate contender. The rotation is very strong at the top but the recent injury woes have exposed its lack of depth. The outfield has been a weak point for years. The catching duo of Roberto Pérez and Austin Hedges is a well-regarded defensive grouping but has offered virtually nothing at the plate, and the team’s first basemen have been the worst offensively in MLB this year. Giménez also struggled in his first crack at locking down shortstop.

There’s still a few weeks for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and the rest of the front office to settle on a pre-deadline plan. Even if they stand pat or serve as minor sellers, the upcoming offseason will be a pivotal one to determining the franchise’s long-term direction.

Potential Landing Spots For Craig Kimbrel

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Now that Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has more or less officially announced his intention to sell at the trade deadline, contenders looking to acquire some upgrades off the Wrigleyville roster might start with a player whose value seemed negligible heading into last season’s deadine: closer Craig Kimbrel. While the Cubs’ fortunes have dimmed in 2021, Kimbrel is enjoying a fantastic comeback season after a disappointing 2020.

Whether a front office likes traditional stats or modern analytics, Kimbrel has something for everyone. Start with big picture run prevention, and there’s nobody better in the game right now: his 0.57 ERA, 1.12 FIP, and 1.94 xFIP all rank 1st overall among qualified relievers. He’s second behind Matt Barnes by measure of SIERA. Kimbrel’s 46.2% strikeout rate is the top such mark among qualified relievers in the game. He also seems to have figured out the control problems that plagued him the past two seasons, lowering his walk rate to a very reasonable 8.6 percent. If you want to dig even deeper, Kimbrel is among the best in the game by whiff rate, chase rate, and barrel percentage.

The righty is also controllable beyond this season with a $16MM vesting option for 2022 that defaults to a club option (with a $1MM buyout) if it doesn’t vest. Kimbrel isn’t exactly cheap, as he is playing on a $16MM salary for 2021 and will still be owed roughly $5.43MM come July 30, but Hoyer can certainly make the case to other teams that Kimbrel is worth the investment.

There will be a certain class of buyer who prefers to shop in the Ryan Tepera/Andrew Chafin lot rather than pay sticker price for Kimbrel. To their point, relievers are historically fungible and fickle, and there are always relievers to be had at the trade deadline. But, bullpen arms don’t grow on trees, and there’s not a contender in the game that couldn’t find a use for Kimbrel.

In fact, it’s probably a simpler task to identify those contenders who won’t have interest in Kimbrel. The Rays, for example, already count their bullpen as a strength, and Kimbrel is a little flashy and/or expensive for their taste. The Nationals — as much as they could use him — would probably have to surrender too great a share of their limited prospect capital to get him.

The Brewers likely consider themselves set with Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brent Suter – and it’s a little hard to fathom Chicago handing Kimbrel to the team that appears to have bested them for the division. The Reds could use him, but after shedding bullpen money last winter, it’s a little counterintuitive to think they’d be ready for an addition like Kimbrel just a few months later. Frankly, the Cubs probably don’t have a trade moratorium with their NL Central comrades (except maybe the Cardinals), but they might require a premium. The Brewers and Reds don’t have the need or inclination, respectively, to pay that tax.

The Pirates and Diamondbacks of the world won’t be calling anytime soon, and the Yankees, for all their recent trouble closing out games of late, look more likely to trade away a closer than acquire one.

The White Sox and Cubs aren’t exactly regular trade partners, but Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune suggests the crosstown rivals might be a fit for a Kimbrel deal. Putting Kimbrel in the Sox bullpen with the likes of Liam Hendriks, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer would certainly blow some hats off, and it would give manager Tony La Russa a strong insurance plan against almost any potential injury for a group with some injury risk. But the Southsiders gave Hendriks $54MM to close games, and it’s a little hard to fathom the active saves leader embracing second chair.

Sullivan also puts the Astros and A’s at the top of the list of suitors. Both make some sense, though the Astros might be in a similar place as the ChiSox, given Ryan Pressly’s All-Star campaign. Oakland’s Lou Trivino has performed well in taking the bulk of closer duties since Trevor Rosenthal has been lost for the year, but Trivino could probably step back into a setup role just as easily.

Besides, the Cubs and A’s have done business before as trade partners. Most notably, Hoyer was the Cubs’ GM in July 2014 when they packaged Jeff Samardzija with Jason Hammel to net top prospect Addison Russell along with Billy McKinney and Dan Straily. Speculatively speaking, if the Cubs were serious about moving Javier Baez, the A’s could certainly use a shortstop upgrade, and the two clubs could try again to pair multiple assets together in this kind of deal, though the financial cost for even one of Kimbrel or Baez might not be palatable for the small-market Athletics.

The Phillies have the most obvious need with a 4.78 bullpen ERA and league-leading 22 blown saves. It’s not clear, however, how serious the Phillies are as contenders, currently a game under .500 and 4.5 games behind the Mets for the division and slim odds at a wild card spot. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski certainly knows Kimbrel well from his time running the Red Sox, and he was also the executive at the wheel when Boston let Kimbrel walk in free agency.

The Dodgers have blown 17 saves, and though Kenley Jansen has looked better than expected, they’ve suffered some significant losses from their pitching staff. Their starting pitching has taken a few hits over the course of the season, most recently with Clayton Kershaw landing on the injured list. One way to counteract that depleted rotation depth would be to bolster the bullpen, and there’s no better arm available than Kimbrel.

Padres’ GM A.J. Preller traded for Kimbrel once before, and if he thinks the Dodgers might be inquiring, he very well could be interesting in trading for him again. Preller also traded him away once before, but that was hardly an indictment of Kimbrel. The present-day Padres have suffered enough injury woes to know that there is no such thing as enough pitching depth. They are, however, leading the league with a 2.86 bullpen ERA, and Mark Melancon is a trusted veteran hand with 27 saves in 31 opportunities. It’s not their greatest need, but the Padres are all in on 2021, and as of right now, they’re staring down a one-game playoff with the Giants or Dodgers.

And why not, the Giants might throw their hats in the ring as well. Kimbrel would certainly fit with the Giants’ veteran-laden roster. He’d also offer some consistency and personality to a bullpen that currently splits closing opportunities between Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers. San Francisco’s bullpen has been good with a collective 3.42 ERA, but they have blown 16 save opportunities.

Moving back to the American League, the Blue Jays certainly qualify as a team to watch. Like the A’s, their Plan A, Kirby Yates, crumbled before the season even began, while depth options like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, and Julian Merryweather have all spent time on the injured list. Even nine games out of first in the AL East, the Jays are committed to contention, and they need all the help they can get on that end.

Hoyer and the Cubs may feel the urgency to jump the trade market for Kimbrel while his value remains at this peak level. In 33 appearances covering 31 2/3 innings, Kimbrel has been worth 2.0 rWAR/1.8 fWAR. He’s converted 20 saves in 22 tries with that absolutely shimmering 0.57 ERA. Those numbers aren’t likely to get much better, and given the relatively small sample inherent to a reliever’s workload, one bad outing could suddenly make Kimbrel appear mortal again.

Bottom line, Kimbrel is one of if not the best reliever in the game right now, and he’s available. For an aggressive contender, he’s likely available now.

The Best Fits For Nelson Cruz

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As the Twins’ miserable season has continued, there’s been increasing talk of them operating as a deadline seller over the next three weeks. Nearly every contender will ask about Jose Berrios. There’s been speculation about the availability of Taylor Rogers. Josh Donaldson has been connected to the Mets. Michael Pineda is a pending free agent who could help quite a few rotations.

Over the course of the next few weeks, though, Nelson Cruz will be one of the highest-impact trade candidates to monitor. The seemingly ageless slugger is having yet another excellent season, slashing .299/.372/.553 (147 wRC+) with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz’s 18.8 percent strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He just celebrated his 41st birthday, but he remains one of the game’s top threats at the plate.

Nelson Cruz | Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, playing out the 2021 campaign on a one-year, $13MM contract. As of this writing, there’s about $6MM remaining to be paid out on that pact. By the time the deadline rolls around, Cruz will be owed about $4.5MM for the remainder of the season.

A bat of Cruz’s caliber will surely be in demand, but perhaps not to the extent one would imagine at first glance. As a pure designated hitter, he’ll face a more limited market than most trade candidates.

A National League club could technically acquire Cruz to DH during interleague play and serve as a vastly overqualified pinch-hitter, but it’s unlikely anyone is going to put Cruz in the outfield with any regularity. He hasn’t played an inning of defense since 2018 and has just 54 innings in the field since the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. It’s hard to ever fully rule something out as front offices get increasingly creative, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that if Cruz is moved, it’ll be to an American League club.

Of course, not all 14 American League clubs will be in play. None of the Rangers, Royals, Tigers or Orioles are in contention. The Angels aren’t going to displace Shohei Ohtani from the DH slot, nor will the Astros do so with Yordan Alvarez. The Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton serving as a primary DH. The Red Sox are enjoying the heck out of a resurgent J.D. Martinez campaign. The Indians have Franmil Reyes, and the Twins may not want to ship Cruz to a division rival anyhow.

On that note, it’s worth pointing out that there’s a decent fit with the AL Central-leading White Sox. Yermin Mercedes faded considerably after a torrid start to the season and was optioned to Triple-A this week. But the Sox have Eloy Jimenez on a rehab assignment, and he’s likely to see at least some time at DH as he eases back into the mix after surgery to repair a ruptured pectoral tendon. It’s also generally hard to imagine the Twins trading Cruz to the White Sox in order to help the South Siders seal up a division title for which Minnesota originally hoped to contend.

There are a few clubs that seem like the clearest fits if the Twins move Cruz. Here’s a look at what each of these teams has received from the DH spot in its lineup in 2021, followed by a more thorough look at the potential fit.

  • Athletics: .220/.289/.381, 88 wRC+
  • Rays: .226/.314/.411, 103 wRC+
  • Blue Jays: .240/.321/.429, 104 wRC+
  • Mariners: .237/.320/.421, 108 wRC+

Athletics: No contender in the American League could use a DH upgrade more than Oakland. Their offseason signing of Mitch Moreland has resulted in a .238/.286/.388 batting line through 175 plate appearances to date. As a team, the A’s rank 12th in MLB with 394 runs scored — 94 fewer runs than the MLB-leading Astros, whom Oakland happens to be chasing in the division.

The question with the A’s, as always, is one of payroll capacity. For most of this past offseason, it looked as though the A’s wouldn’t spend much of anything on the 2021 roster. Their late signings of Moreland, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit and Trevor Rosenthal boosted payroll up to $86MM — still well below the league average but not quite the threadbare levels seen in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Whether ownership would dish out another several million to rent Cruz for two-plus months remains to be seen, but even if the salary is deemed steep, the A’s could always pay a little more in terms of prospect capital in order to get Minnesota to cover some (or all) of the contract.

Rays: The financial element is perhaps even more notable with the Rays, who are currently operating on just a $62MM payroll. Tampa Bay also has a better in-house option than Oakland in the form of Austin Meadows. The 26-year-old Meadows can and has played some corner outfield this season, but the Rays have more defensively gifted options in Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena and Brett Phillips.

Meadows has been the club’s primary designated hitter this year, logging 53 percent of the the Rays’ total DH plate appearances. On the whole, Meadows has been a productive hitter with a .243/.335/.485 batting line, 16 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple. However, he’s been mired in a down stretch at the plate, batting .231/.300/.374 over the past month. Cruz is an upgrade even over Meadows at his absolute best, but the Rays’ “need” for Cruz feels less acute than that of the Athletics.

Blue Jays: Adding Cruz to a lineup that already features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Marcus Semien doesn’t really feel fair. Bringing Cruz into the fold would likely push Randal Grichuk back into a fourth outfielder role behind Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. Early in the year, it would’ve been difficult to justify taking at-bats from Grichuk. He got out to a blistering start, batting .289/.322/.497 through the first two months. Since the calendar flipped to June, however, Grichuk is hitting .220/.244/.423 with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate in 127 plate appearances.

The Jays’ priority to this point has been the bullpen, and that will likely continue to be a point of focus for general manager Ross Atkins. That said, it never hurts to further strengthen an already potent lineup. If the prospect price for Cruz is to the Jays’ liking, they’re one of the few AL clubs that is both contending and has an easy path to carve out regular at-bats for the Boomstick. Unlike the A’s and Rays, money shouldn’t be an issue for them.

Mariners: A Cruz reunion tour with an unexpected contender in Seattle would make for a fun story for the final months of the season. Seattle is far from a postseason lock, but the Mariners are four games over .500 and just three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. Much of the focus surrounding the Mariners has been on whether they’ll trade Mitch Haniger, but if they continue their hot streak — they’re 15-7 over their past 22 games — this is a club that could actually look to add some pieces.

The focus for Seattle would probably be on more controllable players who can help in 2022 and beyond. Starting pitching, in particular, will be the Mariners’ primary desire — as manager Scott Servais suggested this week. But if the Mariners can acquire Cruz without paying a price they feel will compromise a very promising long-term outlook, he’s a sensible upgrade. The move would be overwhelmingly popular with fans, and the Mariners have taken a potpourri approach at designated hitter this year anyhow. Ty France leads the team with an even 100 plate appearances as a DH, but he could be slotted into the lineup regularly at first base/second base for the balance of the 2021 campaign.

The Mariners Have A Yusei Kikuchi Decision To Make

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Yusei Kikuchi’s first two seasons in the Major Leagues didn’t go as either the Mariners or the left-hander himself hoped. After establishing himself as one of the premier pitchers in Japan by pitching to a 2.77 ERA in parts of eight seasons (2.51 in his final three years), he tested international free-agent waters as one of the most coveted talents in recent memory.

Yusei Kikuchi | Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Beyond his excellent numbers in Japan and his arsenal of what many scouts believed to MLB-caliber offerings, Kikuchi was a free agent at just 27 years of age. Unlike many of his countrymen, he was seeking his first opportunity in North America while firmly in the midst of his prime seasons. The level of interest and intrigue in the left-hander was readily apparent both in the size and the structure of his contract. Kikuchi hired the Boras Corporation to represent him as he looked to jump to the big leagues and eventually secured a four-year, $56MM guarantee from the Mariners.

Put rather simply, Kikuchi’s first year in the Majors went poorly in just about every regard. He remained healthy, but Kikuchi struggled in adjusting from pitching every sixth day in NPB to every fifth in MLB. The Mariners did, at times, find ways to get him an extra day’s rest, and they even gave him a few starts that were short by design. (He tossed just one inning in an April 26 “start,” for instance, as he adjusted to his new workload.)

The numbers weren’t there. He made 32 starts but pitched to a 5.46 ERA and 5.17 SIERA. His 6.9 percent walk rate was a good bit better than league average, but Kikuchi also had a well below-average 16.1 percent strikeout rate and was tagged for a whopping 36 home runs in just 161 2/3 frames. It was not a great debut. Mariners fans might’ve hoped that a second season would produce better results as Kikuchi overcame his adjustment phase, but he came back with a 5.17 ERA in 47 innings (nine starts). He understandably drew a fair bit of criticism.

However, there was also good reason to believe that Kikuchi’s 2020 season marked something of a turning point. While the ERA wasn’t great, the signs of a forthcoming breakout weren’t exactly hidden.

Kikuchi’s average four-seam velocity jumped from 92.6 mph to 95.1 mph in 2020, and he began using an effective cutter that wasn’t in his 2019 repertoire. His strikeout rate jumped from 2019’s 16.1 percent to 24.2 percent, and his ground-ball rate spiked from 44 percent in ’19 to 52 percent in 2020. The home run troubles that plagued him in 2019 were gone; Kikuchi yielded just three round-trippers in those 47 innings. Despite the improvements in many of his underlying stats, however, Kikuchi was hindered by an elevated 10.3 percent walk rate and a 59.9 percent strand rate that looked rather fluky.

Just as many of those indicators suggested, Kikuchi looks like a different pitcher in 2021. He’s started 15 games and ridden a 3.18 ERA, 25.4 percent strikeout rate, 8.5 percent walk rate and career-best 53.8 percent ground-ball rate to his first career All-Star nod. Kikuchi has allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of his 15 starts, with the lone exception being a pair of five-run hiccups in his third and fourth starts of the season. Over his past 11 trips to the mound, Kikuchi has logged a 2.33 ERA while averaging 6 1/3 innings per start.

The transformation is striking, although it’s worth noting that similarly to 2020, when he pitched better than his ERA indicated, Kikuchi probably isn’t quite this good. He’s benefiting from a tiny .221 average on balls in play and a huge 82.9 percent strand rate that, like his 2020 mark, looks unsustainable (just in the other direction). Still, if you combine Kikuchi’s 2020-21 results, it’s a pretty nice-looking pitcher without too many red flags: 140 1/3 innings, 3.85 ERA, 3.97 SIERA, 25 percent strikeout rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate. The combined .251 BABIP is a bit lower than should be expected, but few pitchers can boast that combination of missed bats, solid control and strong ground-ball tendencies.

All of this is particularly notable given the aforementioned unique structure of Kikuchi’s contract. He’s technically guaranteed $56MM from 2019-22, but the Mariners will have a pivotal decision at season’s end. They can choose to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options all in conjunction with one another — effectively a four-year, $66MM extension. If not, Kikuchi will have a $13MM player option that he can decline in order to test free agency. (Seattle could make him a qualifying offer at that point.)

The Mariners are in the late stages of a multi-year rebuild and will surely be aiming to contend beginning in 2022. But while they’ve begun to see a growing number of position prospects emerge at the MLB level, the pitching looks far less certain. Justus Sheffield is still looking to settle in as a consistent producer. Logan Gilbert has looked sharp after a few rocky outings early in his MLB career. Chris Flexen has proven to be a shrewd signing thus far. Marco Gonzales has battled injuries in 2021 and taken a step back. Top prospects George Kirby and Emerson Hancock shouldn’t be expected to be too far behind Gilbert in terms of MLB readiness, but the rotation could certainly use some stability — which Kikuchi has provided to this point in the season.

As such, there’s good reason for the Mariners to want to keep Kikuchi around, though the question will be whether that four-year, $66MM price point proves palatable. The team has just $19MM committed to the 2022 payroll beginning in 2022, so Seattle can certainly afford to keep Kikuchi around and still make another notable addition to the rotation either via free agency or trade this winter. The $66MM price point is roughly in line with recent deals signed by Nathan Eovaldi (four years, $68MM), Miles Mikolas (four years, $68MM), Dallas Keuchel (three years, $55.5MM) and Alex Cobb (four years, $57MM). If Kikuchi continues pitching near his current level, a deal in that range wouldn’t be unreasonable in free agency.

That’s particularly of note, too, because if the Mariners choose not to pick up their end of the arrangement, Kikuchi currently looks like a lock to turn down that $13MM player option, given how well he’s pitched. He’d quite likely reject a qualifying offer as well, based on the strength of his performance.

Other teams could try to pry Kikuchi away from the Mariners with a strong trade offer, but if he’s pitching well enough to carry substantial trade value, that probably means he’s also pitching well enough for the Mariners to look favorably on that four-year extension. Trading a player with such a virtually unprecedented conditional option would also be immensely complicated. It’d be tough for Seattle to extract considerable value when the best-case scenario is having the exclusive right to extend Kikuchi at a fairly notable rate.

There’s also downside for an acquiring team that can’t be overlooked; were Kikuchi to incur a substantial injury in the months following a trade, he’d likely exercise that $13MM player option. The Mariners have already taken that risk in issuing the initial contract — but they weren’t parting with young talent in addition to taking that risk. Another club would be doing just that, which would weigh down the potential return in a trade.

We’re only at the season’s halfway point, so there’s still time for Kikuchi to make this decision look more straightforward — either with a continued run of dominance or a return to his 2019-20 form. But the fact that he’s begun to make the four-year option/extension route look viable in and of itself is a testament to the strength of his season. He’s gone from looking like a possible front office misstep to the potential rotation cornerstone the Mariners envisioned when signing him in the first place.

Recurring Depth Shortage Makes Nationals A Team To Watch

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The Nationals were the beneficiaries of an otherworldly run of power from Kyle Schwarber in June. Schwarber’s hot streak has been well-documented, but to put it in brief, Schwarber hit 16 home runs after June 12th to finish with the second most home runs in June all-time. Better yet, in that 19-game stretch, the Nationals went 15-4, putting the team back over .500 and firmly in the conversation for the NL East crown. They are 2.5 games behind the Mets entering play on Saturday.

But it’s July now, and the Nationals have a stark new reality to confront. Schwarber left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury and was placed on the 10-day injured list today. Manager Dave Martinez called the injury “significant” and said that he’ll be out for more than a 10-day injured list stint, per Todd Dybas of Inside the Clubhouse (Twitter links). That’s not a death knell for the Nats, but it is a crushing blow for a team that’s long been one of the most top-heavy teams in the league.

The Nationals not only lack the depth to cover for significant injuries, but there’s very little by way of system depth to shore up those weaknesses via trade. Case and point, Trea Turner is day-to-day after jamming his finger on a triple, which forced the team to use catcher Alex Avila as their starting second baseman the next day. But this isn’t just a clerical misunderstanding or bit of ill-timing that left the Nats temporarily short-handed in the infield. Their dearth of ML-capable infielders is such that they immediately turned around and traded for Alcides Escobar from the Royals.

That the Nationals have any kind of question for which Escobar is the answer should be a tell-tale giveaway of their current circumstances. Escobar hasn’t played in the Majors since 2018. He hasn’t reached base at a better than .300 OBP clip since 2014. He has never slugged over .400 SLG for a season.

For the optimists out there, he does have a capable glove, the Royals won a World Series with Escobar at shortstop, and he posted a league-average bat over the past two seasons in Triple-A. For six seasons from 2011 to 2016, Escobar averaged 1.82 rWAR/1.83 fWAR per season. That’s not star quality, but it’s a capable Major Leaguer.

To return to the cup-half-empty crowd, those years were firmly in Escobar’s physical prime, and at 34 years old, he’s well beyond that. He averaged -1.45 rWAR/-0.2 fWAR in his final two seasons in the Majors, which to reiterate, was three seasons ago.

Granted, it’s not clear right now what the Nationals’ plan is for Escobar. He is on the active roster, but it’s anyone’s guess how long he stays. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Escobar find a home in DC, as other unlikely roster castoffs have in the past — guys like Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, and Gerardo Parra.

In the short term, Humberto Arteaga had his contract selected, and he started at short yesterday. Arteaga is another Royals’ castoff. Arteaga was the Royals’ 20th-ranked prospect by Baseball America in 2013, and he’s never at any level posted a better than 93 wRC+. Just as quickly, he’s been designated for assignment. If he goes unclaimed, however, the Nats may need Arteaga again.

The caveat to the Nats’ shortstop problem is that it doesn’t seem like Turner will be out for long. For a couple of days, Arteaga or even Escobar are fine stopgaps. But if Turner’s injury extends to a stint on the injured list, the Nats might consider turning to one of two top prospects: Luis Garcia or Carter Kieboom. The sheen has worn off these two, but they still hold tremendous promise, and they’re both raking in Triple-A. The problem is that neither profiles as a shortstop. Garcia has started 25 games at short in Rochester, but he’s been dealing with injury concerns of his own.

Garcia — who is still just 21 — is the Nats’ sole in-house option that has some chance to hold the line in the case of a Turner injury. That said, there’s no replacing Turner, who has been among the most productive regulars in the game with 3.6 fWAR, tied for sixth-most among qualified position players in the Majors.

Returning to left field, the Nats are going to have a similar problem filling in for Schwarber. Gerardo Parra was the immediate replacement, and beyond him, only Josh Harrison has experience in the outfield. While playing with a four-man bench and a hobbled Turner, Harrison is essentially the emergency backup at every position.

He’s also a decent counterpoint to skepticism of the Nats’ strategy to trust trusted hands. Harrison was all but out of the league after back-to-back putrid seasons with losing teams in the Pirates and Tigers, the latter of whom released him after he hit .175/.218/.263 in 36 games. He’s been rejuvenated in Washington, however, hitting .275/.352/.386 in 358 plate appearances across 2020-21. The 5’8″ sparkplug has been worth 1.3 rWAR this year.

Parra doesn’t have the hard evidence to back up his on-field value since latching on with the Nats mid-way through 2019, but his contributions as a clubhouse presence cannot be discounte — not when “Baby Shark” continues to rev the engines of Nats Park whenever Parra steps to the plate. With the ability to play all three outfield spots, Parra certainly adds enough value to hold a roster spot, but he’s overextended as an everyday player.

Which leads us to Yadiel Hernandez, the likeliest option to get the call as the regular left fielder until Schwarber returns, especially with Andrew Stevenson also out (Stevenson is set to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, notes Dougherty). Hernandez has some power and regularly puts together quality at-bats. In his youth, he could play all three outfield spots, but now he’s best used in a corner. He has mashed to the tune of .309/.367/.618 in 14 games since being optioned to Triple-A, where the Nats sent him to get more regular playing time.

The 33-year-old rookie may seem an uninspired option at first glance, but there’s cause for his believers to feel righteous: he hit a particularly righteous .333/.390/.417 in 41 plate appearances earlier this season when getting regular playing time as Juan Soto’s injury replacement. His overall line slipped to .261/.316/.362 in 76 trips, but with Schwarber and Soto healthy, Hernandez’s opportunities were limited to pinch-hitting. That’s a tough gig and not everyone can be Lenny Harris or Matt Stairs (though Stairs is actually a decent comp for body type and swing style).

As with Turner, nobody is capable of stepping into the role left behind by Schwarber, at least as he was in June. Even Schwarber was unlikely to continue to be that guy. The macro problem for the Nationals isn’t replacing Turner and Schwarber over the next few days or even weeks, it’s that the pool of talent behind the active roster is thin enough that it’s not hard to imagine a total collapse — which is why teams continue to eye the Nats closely as the trade deadline approaches.

On the one hand, Stephen Strasburg could return, Patrick Corbin could find his form, Turner’s finger issue could pass quickly, Soto could hit a much-anticipated power surge, and Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, and Kyle Finnegan could make hasty returns from the injured list to reinforce the bullpen. In a relatively flaccid NL East, the Nationals certainly can make a run.

On the other hand, Strasburg’s mysterious poor health could remain mysterious and poor, Corbin could struggle to find his mechanical consistency all season, and with just an injury or two, the offense could crater. That was the story for the Nationals in 2020, which resulted in a last-place club. That was also the case in 2019 when — stop me if you’ve heard this before — an injury to Turner’s finger nearly tanked their season.

The watch is on to see how the Nats respond to Schwarber’s injury. At the very least, we now know Schwarber isn’t coming back any time soon — which quite literally puts an end to the run that got them back into contention.

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