Which Players Will Be Extended Before Free Agency?
Five days after the World Series ends, free agents will be free to sign with any team. Our current list is here, but often a few key names are plucked off the market early by signing an extension or new contract with their team. For example, in October 2011, the Yankees were able to negotiate an extension with C.C. Sabathia prior to him opting out and reaching the open market. Such deals could even happen now, like when the Astros added two years for Brett Myers in August 2010. Below we've identified six players teams may want to retain before they hit the open market. Let us know which will get a deal done! You can choose multiple players. You can view the poll results here.
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Poll: Garza Or Peavy?
29-year-old Cubs righty Matt Garza is almost certain to be traded this month. He owns a 3.17 ERA in 11 starts this year, and hasn't posted an ERA above 4.00 since his rookie season. He's a little home run prone, but his stats this year are in line with his recent work: a strikeout rate around eight per nine innings, and a walk rate comfortably under three per nine. He's averaging 93.6 miles per hour on his fastball this month, according to BrooksBaseball.net. Garza, who has never been signed to a multiyear deal, will have about $3.4MM remaining on his contract at the trade deadline before being eligible for free agency (and ineligible for a qualifying offer from a new team). He missed a huge chunk of time due to a stress reaction in his elbow and a lat strain, with his 2012 season ending on July 21st and his '13 campaign beginning on May 21st. Garza has been traded twice before in his career, each time for at least one very well-regarded young player, but he has never made an All-Star team or received a Cy Young vote.
Then there's 32-year-old White Sox righty Jake Peavy, whose availability is less certain. He's had a decorated career for the Padres and White Sox, winning the 2007 NL Cy Young award and making the All-Star team in '05, '07, and '12. He posted a 3.37 ERA for the Sox in 32 starts last year, but sits at 4.19 now and had a 4.77 ERA over 2010-11. Like Garza, he seems good for at least eight strikeouts per nine and an ample amount of home runs allowed, but Peavy's control is notably better. He recently returned from a 1.5 month layoff due to a non-displaced rib fracture. It's incredible that Peavy's shoulder has held up as well as it has since May 2011, after he recovered from "experimental surgery to reattach a key tendon" to the rear of it (his surgeon suggested the procedure be named "Jake Peavy surgery.") As with any pitcher, Peavy has lost some velocity since his 95 mile per hour heyday, working around 91-92 currently. Peavy signed a team-friendly two-year extension last October. He'll be owed around $4.8MM at the trade deadline, and then he'll earn $14.5MM in 2014 and would be eligible for a qualifying offer.
Two Chicago righties, perhaps the best available pitchers at the 2013 trade deadline. Their abilities seem similar. Garza has a more concerning recent injury history, while Peavy's July 2010 shoulder surgery was groundbreaking. Garza is younger and throws harder, but Peavy comes with an extra year of control and the potential to recoup a draft pick in 2015. This leads us to today's poll question…
Which pitcher has more trade value?
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Matt Garza 65% (16,900)
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Jake Peavy 35% (9,140)
Total votes: 26,040
Poll: Who Will Acquire Ricky Nolasco?
Ricky Nolasco has been the hottest name on the trade market thus far and represents one of the better starting pitching options available. After a pair of rocky outings on June 21 and June 28, he righted the ship Wednesday against a tough Braves lineup when he allowed two runs on six hits and no walks with seven strikeouts in seven innings. That start brought Nolasco's ERA to 3.85 with 7.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 41.9 percent ground-ball rate. He's not an elite starter, but Nolasco is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm who can upgrade just about any rotation in baseball.
So far, the Dodgers are said to be the frontrunners for his services because they're willing to absorb the roughly $5.5MM he has remaining on his contract. Another suitor, the Rockies, have offered a pair of "pretty decent" prospects, but they don't want to take on the remainder of his contract. The Marlins are currently seeking both salary relief and solid prospects, so a deal has yet to occur.
Nolasco has also drawn interest from the Padres, Giants, Rangers and Orioles, though Baltimore recently acquired Scott Feldman from the Cubs, so their level of interest isn't as clear as it once was. Nolasco, a southern California native, could be particularly attractive to the Padres as they may feel there's a better chance at extending him before he hits the open market.
Recently, the Dodgers, Rockies and Rangers were all said to be "in heavy pursuit" of the eight-year veteran, who is the Marlins franchise leader in wins, starts and innings pitched. At this point, as many have noted, it's no longer a question of if Nolasco gets traded, but rather a question of when he gets traded and where he lands. All of this begs the question…
Which team will acquire Ricky Nolasco?
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Dodgers 48% (5,615)
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A different team 13% (1,521)
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Giants 13% (1,465)
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Rangers 10% (1,197)
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Rockies 6% (698)
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Orioles 6% (643)
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Padres 4% (482)
Total votes: 11,621
Which Team Had The Best Draft?
Now that we've had some time to digest the results of last week's MLB amateur draft, and have begun to see team's signing strategies unfold, let's see how MLBTR readers view things. The poll below is simple: choose the team that, in your estimation, had the best draft.
"Best," in this case, does not necessarily imply "most talent," or even "most value." Let's define it this way: the team that best utilized the entire draft process (including the acquisition or sacrifice of picks, as well as the selections made with its picks) to improve its present and future capacity to win baseball games.
Here are a few resources you may want to consider in evaluating this question:
- Baseball America has a useful list showing the draft order, recommended bonus for each slot, and manner by which each pick was obtained.
- Check River Avenue Blues for a similar list that includes the draft picks that teams forfeited by signing free agents who had received a qualifying offer. (Scroll to bottom.)
- ESPN's Keith Law broke down the draft results in two segments: American League and National League. (ESPN Insider subscription required and recommended.)
- Likewise, Baseball America provided a brief narrative for each of the American League and National League teams, in addition to breaking down the draft destinations of BA's top 500 prospects.
- Minor League Ball's John Sickels assessed the draft on a team-by-team basis, broken out by division: AL East; AL Central; AL West; NL East; NL Central; and NL West.
Which Team Had The Best Draft?
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Chicago Cubs 10% (1,182)
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New York Yankees 9% (1,062)
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Boston Red Sox 8% (938)
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St. Louis Cardinals 8% (870)
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Pittsburgh Pirates 7% (780)
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Houston Astros 6% (685)
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New York Mets 5% (568)
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Philadelphia Phillies 4% (441)
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Toronto Blue Jays 4% (436)
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Seattle Mariners 3% (400)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 3% (347)
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Atlanta Braves 3% (323)
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Baltimore Orioles 2% (286)
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Minnesota Twins 2% (261)
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Cincinnati Reds 2% (248)
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Kansas City Royals 2% (241)
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Oakland Athletics 2% (227)
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Texas Rangers 2% (227)
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Detroit Tigers 2% (225)
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San Diego Padres 2% (213)
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San Francisco Giants 2% (197)
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Cleveland Indians 2% (193)
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Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2% (190)
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Tampa Bay Rays 1% (157)
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Chicago White Sox 1% (154)
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Milwaukee Brewers 1% (154)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 1% (148)
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Colorado Rockies 1% (133)
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Miami Marlins 1% (94)
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Washington Nationals 1% (90)
Total votes: 11,470
Who Will Be Drafted First Overall?
Carlos Correa of the Astros, Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals, and Tim Beckham of the Rays have the honor of being the last five players drafted first overall. Outfielder Byron Buxton was drafted after Correa last year by the Twins, yet was regarded as the draft's best player by both Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law. BA and Law both had Correa second. 2012 marked the first draft with MLB's firm slot values, and the Astros were allotted $7.2MM to sign their first overall pick and $11.2MM in total.
In what Baseball America's Jim Callis described as "a perfect storm for Houston," Correa was "a legitimate top-of-the-draft talent" who nonetheless would have been expected to last until the sixth or seventh pick, which had slot values of $3MM and $3.25MM, respectively. Since the slot values are not firm for each pick but rather part of a team's pool for their first ten picks, the Astros were able to sign Correa for $2.4MM under slot (still worthwhile for him), and use the savings to draft and sign Lance McCullers, Jr. and Rio Ruiz to over-slot deals.
This year, Callis believes the top tier of the draft is limited to college pitchers Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, and college third baseman Kris Bryant. In BA's mock draft Friday, Callis mentioned the Astros have narrowed their field to those three plus college third baseman Colin Moran and presumably high school outfielder Clint Frazier. BA and Law both see Gray and Appel as the draft's top two talents. The Astros probably wouldn't admit it if they take one of the position players instead, but if that happens, they will seemingly be employing last year's strategy again with their bonus pool money. That leads us to today's poll question:
Who will the Astros draft first overall next week?
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Jonathan Gray 50% (3,762)
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Mark Appel 32% (2,413)
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Kris Bryant 11% (811)
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Colin Moran 4% (331)
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Clint Frazier 3% (246)
Total votes: 7,563
Second Biggest Contract Of The 2013-14 Offseason
Getting the second-biggest free agent contract of the offseason isn't a bad thing – just ask Josh Hamilton, Prince Fielder, and Jayson Werth. But while those players all signed for more than $100MM, it's not clear yet if anyone in the 2013-14 free agent class will receive a nine-figure contract aside from Robinson Cano, who could reach $200MM. That leads us to today's poll question…
Which free agent will receive the biggest contract?
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Shin-Soo Choo 34% (4,392)
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Jacoby Ellsbury 29% (3,732)
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Brian McCann 8% (1,036)
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Tim Lincecum 8% (1,016)
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Nelson Cruz 7% (881)
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Hunter Pence 5% (668)
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Matt Garza 5% (590)
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Chase Utley 3% (382)
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Mark Reynolds 1% (173)
Total votes: 12,870
Mariners To Demote Jesus Montero
Mariners catcher Jesus Montero will be sent to Triple-A Tacoma today, reports Ryan Divish of The News Tribune. Catcher Jesus Sucre will be selected to join the big league club, and it appears Montero won't do much catching at Triple-A.
It was a blockbuster challenge trade of two extremely promising and valuable young players. Montero had 18 excellent big league games for the Yankees under his belt when he was sent to the Mariners in January 2012. The principal player coming to New York in the deal was soon-to-be 23-year-old righty Michael Pineda, who had averaged nearly 95 miles per hour on his fastball as a rookie, made the All-Star team, and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting. Young players of this caliber are rarely traded. Things went south quickly for Pineda, as decreased velocity in his second Spring Training start was a harbinger of a shoulder injury that would lead to surgery in May 2012. What's more, Pineda was arrested for a DUI in August of that year. Pineda continues to work his way back from the surgery, with the expectation of making his Yankee debut this year. Whether Pineda's rookie campaign was the high point in his career is anybody's guess.
Montero's first full season in 2012 was disappointing. Known almost entirely for his offensive prowess, he posted a .260/.298/.386 line in 553 plate appearances. Montero caught in 56 games, serving as DH in 78. In a full-time catching role this year, he did even less with the bat. As "a man without a position," as Divish puts it, the bar for Montero to become a regular designated hitter in the Majors is quite high. Oh, and the reported connection to Biogenesis doesn't help.
There were a couple of additional players in the Montero-Pineda swap. The Mariners acquired righty Hector Noesi, who hasn't impressed in 120 1/3 big league innings so far. The Yankees added prospect Jose Campos, rated their fifth-best by Baseball America prior to the season. Campos made only five starts last year in low A ball, missing most of the season due to a bone bruise or a small fracture in his elbow. The injury has Campos on an innings limit in the 85-90 range this year.
One year and four months after the exciting Montero-Pineda swap, the players involved in the trade are a mess across the board, which leads to today's poll: which pair of players do you prefer moving forward?
Which pair of players do you prefer moving forward?
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Michael Pineda and Jose Campos 68% (6,933)
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Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi 32% (3,294)
Total votes: 10,227
Poll: The Next 2012 First-Rounder To Be Called Up
The Orioles made headlines last night by announcing the promotion of Kevin Gausman to the Majors. Gausman, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft, reached Double-A as a 22-year-old and posted a 3.11 ERA with a 49-to-5 K/BB ratio in 46 1/3 innings there. With that promotion, Gausman becomes the first member of last year's first round to make it to the Majors. Among 2012 first-rounders, only four other players have even reached the Double-A level to this point.
Mike Zunino, selected by the Mariners at No. 3 overall, has reached Triple-A, but the catcher is hitting just .220/.290/.496 through 33 games in Tacoma. Given the Mariners' need for offense, however, he could be a hot streak away. Promoting him would allow the Mariners to use Jesus Montero at DH, but that only adds to a roster crunch of corner OF/1B/DH types in Seattle.
Right-hander Michael Wacha, the No. 19 overall selection by the Cardinals, has also reached Triple-A. He's posted a 2.05 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 through 52 2/3 innings for the Memphis Redbirds to open the season, and the Cardinals have some injury problems in their rotation with Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook on the shelf. For now, they've gone with John Gast and Tyler Lyons over Wacha.
Marcus Stroman's 50-game suspension for a positive stimulant has finished, and the Blue Jays right-hander made a strong debut at Double-A with five scoreless innings in a start. Many pegged the Duke product to be the quickest first rounder to reach the Majors last year, and Baseball America's Ben Badler wrote Sunday that it "shouldn't take him long" before he's big league ready.
James Ramsey, the Cardinals' other selection (No. 23), is the only other player from the first round to reach Double-A or higher thus far. As an outfielder, he has an uphill battle to reach the Major Leagues given the presence of Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and top prospect Oscar Taveras within the Cardinals organization. He's a huge long shot, but he's advanced further than most college players from the first round already.
Let's open this up to a poll…
Who will be the next 2012 first-rounder to be called up to the Majors?
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Michael Wacha 41% (3,019)
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Mike Zunino 29% (2,132)
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Marcus Stroman 22% (1,600)
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A player who has yet to reach Double-A 7% (483)
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James Ramsey 2% (181)
Total votes: 7,415
Which Players Will Be Traded This Summer?
Last summer, the biggest names traded were Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Ichiro Suzuki, Wandy Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, Francisco Liriano, J.A. Happ, Jeremy Guthrie, Brett Myers, Kurt Suzuki, Joe Blanton, Brandon League, Marco Scutaro, Stephen Drew, Joe Saunders, Edward Mujica, and Chris Johnson.
As always, the vast majority of trades will take place in July and August. Perhaps we'll see a handful of All-Stars dealt, and surely a slew of solid veterans (often in contract years) and decent prospects. With over two months remaining until the trade deadline, several of the more interesting speculative trade candidates, such as Chase Headley, David Price, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cliff Lee, appear unlikely. Weigh in with today's poll – check all the names you expect to be traded this summer. You can click here to view the results.
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Poll: Who Will Sign An Extension This May?
Let's start the weekend up with a poll. As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted recently, two young stars (Adam Jones and Miguel Montero) signed significant extensions during May of 2012. While there have not been significant rumblings about any similar deals recently, the Jones and Montero deals both sprung up with relatively little advance buzz: Jones said he was not aware of any talks with the Orioles just a month before his six-year, $85.5MM deal was inked. And the build up to Montero's five-year, $60MM extension consisted largely of the Diamondbacks' acknowledgement that the team was open to in-season negotiations.
Jones had one year of arbitration eligibility remaining when he signed, while Montero would have become a free agent at the end of the year. Both were relatively young (26 and 28, respectively) and fairly well established as above-average players at premium defensive positions. And each had been with their teams for all or virtually all of their big league careers.
With those deals in mind, let's take a look at some generally comparable position players who could be positioned for similar deals. We will not include Robinson Cano, as he is at a different level of performance and contract extension, along with being somewhat older. Anyhow, we already asked MLBTR readers what they think about the likelihood of a Cano extension. Likewise, we'll leave out Chase Headley, given his recent comments. (Also, MLBTR readers just weighed in on a possible Headley extension, with the majority believing a trade was more likely than an extension.)
The Nationals' Ian Desmond, 27, has continued to build off of his emergence last year. He sports a .296/.311/.530 line, although he has also registered seven early errors. The shortstop has spent his entire career in the former-Expos organization, and is poised to hit the open market in 2016. We know the Nats are open to negotiating an extension with Desmond, and the Elvis Andrus signing provides a relevant (albeit imperfect) point of reference.
Orioles' catcher Matt Wieters is another obvious candidate. He will turn 27 later this month, and is looking at free agency in 2016. Ongoing negotiations between Wieters and the O's are seemingly at a simmer, but could pick up at any time. While Wieters is off to a bit of a slow start, slashing just .224/.297/.388 to date, he also probably had less to prove this season than Desmond.
Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, 29, is similarly situated to Montero. He has played his entire career in Boston, but is set to become a free agent after the season. While the center fielder has not returned to his MVP-level 2011 season, when he exploded for 32 home runs, he has bounced back from his injury-shortened 2012. Thus far, his batting line (.286/.338/.405) and league-leading steal totals (11) are right in line with his strong 2008-2009 seasons. While both player and team appear interested in discussing an extension, Ellsbury's representation by Scott Boras — and the possibility that he could significantly raise his value with an injury-free 2013 — could make a deal unlikely.
Jason Heyward of the Braves is two years from free agency at just 23 years old, but as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes notes, the cost-conscious Braves could look to extend him. Heyward is currently on the DL after undergoing an appendectomy, and has had a poor start to the year. Nevertheless, he has established himself as few big leaguers have at his age.
Austin Jackson, the Tigers' center fielder, is a young 26 and still two years from free agency. He is also a client of Scott Boras. But his strong early track record could make him a target for Detroit to try and lock up early. With so many big-money free agent deals on the books, it could make sense for the Tigers to try and save on Jackson by guaranteeing him money in advance. Jackson is off to another good start, putting up a .293/.356/.407 line to go with five steals.
Poll: Who Will Sign An Extension This May?
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Matt Wieters 21% (1,577)
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Nobody 20% (1,461)
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Austin Jackson 20% (1,447)
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Jason Heyward 16% (1,202)
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Jacoby Ellsbury 8% (613)
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Someone Else 8% (597)
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Ian Desmond 7% (504)
Total votes: 7,401