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MLBTR Polls

Poll: Should Edwin Jackson Get A Qualifying Offer?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 21, 2012 at 8:47am CDT

It wasn’t long ago that Edwin Jackson was one of the top free agent starting pitchers available. Before long he’ll re-appear on the free agent market, and when he does the Nationals will have to decide whether it’s worth extending him a qualifying offer.

Doing so would allow Washington to obtain draft pick compensation for the right-hander should he sign elsewhere. But it’d also create the possibility of Jackson accepting a one-year contract in the $13MM range.

In some instances the risk (the possibility of a $13MM commitment) isn’t worth the reward (potential draft pick compensation). But in Jackson’s case, a one-year $13MM contract would seem to be a team-friendly deal. 

Jackson has a 3.89 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 47.3 % ground ball rate in 173 2/3 innings so far in 2012. Like most Nationals starters, he throws hard (average fastball velocity of 93.5 mph) and generates swings and misses (12.2% swinging strike rate). And though he’s in the midst of his tenth MLB season, he’s still in his prime at 29 years old. Even if the Nationals preferred other candidates for their rotation, Jackson could generate trade interest at that salary.

Last offseason, under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, the Cardinals offered Jackson arbitration, setting themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2012. If the Nationals make Jackson a qualifying offer, no other team will be able to sign him unless they surrender a 2013 draft pick. But there’s not an abundance of quality free agent starting pitching and many of the top pitchers (Zack Greinke excluded) will be linked to draft picks. Jackson, who’s now represented by the Legacy Agency, figures to draw interest either way. What should the Nationals do?

Should the Nationals make Edwin Jackson a qualifying offer after the season?
Yes 72.36% (3,607 votes)
No 27.64% (1,378 votes)
Total Votes: 4,985
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MLBTR Polls Washington Nationals Edwin Jackson

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Poll: Should Shaun Marcum Get A Qualifying Offer?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 19, 2012 at 12:25pm CDT

Shaun Marcum’s an effective pitcher when healthy, but questions about his durability persist as he approaches free agency. One year after reaching the 200-inning plateau for the first time, Marcum has been sidelined for much of the season. The right-hander experienced shoulder stiffness at the beginning of the year, then missed two-plus months with elbow tightness in the middle of the season.

Marcum has pitched well overall, posting a 3.91 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 35.8% ground ball rate in 106 innings. His average fastball checks in at 86.6mph, which ranks 130th among the 136 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings this year. But Marcum never needed an overpowering fastball to succeed in the past, when he held his own against AL East offenses. He uses his fastball far less frequently than most pitchers, changing speeds to generate more than his share of swing and misses. This year he has a career-best 11.3% swinging strike rate.

However, he hasn't pitched particularly well since returning from the disabled list, and has not completed six innings in any of those five post-DL starts. The events of the last few months appear to have reduced Marcum’s chances of obtaining a qualifying offer from the Brewers after the season.

Not only has Marcum spent considerable time of the disabled list, starters such as Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta have emerged, lessening the impact of Marcum's health issues, Chris Narveson's injury, Zack Greinke's departure and Randy Wolf's ineffectiveness. While the Brewers figure to pursue pitching this offseason, they aren't desperate. They may decide against extending Marcum a qualifying offer in the $13MM range, even though it’d the only way for them to obtain draft pick compensation for the 30-year-old.

If the Brewers don’t consider Marcum a $13MM pitcher and suspect that the industry shares their view, it’d likely make sense to let the Turner Gary Sports client leave for no compensation. However, if they believe they could find trade partners for Marcum at that salary, extending a qualifying offer becomes less risky. In that scenario, draft pick compensation would be within reach. With two weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s almost time for the Brewers to decide…

Should the Brewers make Shaun Marcum a qualifying offer after the season?
No 67.63% (3,696 votes)
Yes 32.37% (1,769 votes)
Total Votes: 5,465
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MLBTR Polls Milwaukee Brewers Shaun Marcum

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Poll: Should Kyle Lohse Get A Qualifying Offer?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 18, 2012 at 10:04am CDT

Kyle Lohse’s strong season is part of the reason the Cardinals are on track to return to the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. Lohse, who starts against the Astros tonight, has a 2.81 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate in 192 innings over the course of 30 starts this year. The 33-year-old right-hander has an eye-catching 14-3 record with an average fastball velocity of 89.4 mph and a swinging strike rate of 7.1%.

Despite his production, he’s not expected to return to St. Louis when he hits free agency this offseason, as the Cardinals already have an assortment of options for their 2013 rotation. Instead, the Scott Boras client figures to seek another multiyear deal in free agency when his four-year, $41MM contract expires after the season.

The Cardinals could make him a qualifying offer, even if they don’t expect him to return in 2013. Extending Lohse a qualifying offer would be the only way for GM John Mozeliak to obtain a compensatory draft pick next year. Without an offer, Lohse would leave and the Cardinals would get nothing.

If St. Louis does make Lohse an offer, he’d be tied to draft pick compensation and one of two things would happen: he’d accept and get locked in to a one-year deal at a salary of $13MM-plus, or he’d decline in search of a multiyear deal, setting St. Louis up for draft pick compensation in 2013. 

The Cardinals will have other needs to address this offseason, such as bullpen help and a potential extension for Adam Wainwright, so spending $13MM on another starter might be considered a luxury. But they could move Lohse, who would generate trade interest on a one-year deal in the $13MM range. 

If the Cardinals are willing to take this risk, they can set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. If not, they can keep it simple and let Lohse depart without making him a qualifying offer. What should they do?

Should the Cardinals make Kyle Lohse a qualifying offer after the season?
Yes 74.20% (4,377 votes)
No 25.80% (1,522 votes)
Total Votes: 5,899
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MLBTR Polls St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Lohse

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Poll: How Will The AL Wild Card Race Unfold?

By Daniel Seco 2 | September 16, 2012 at 10:02pm CDT

With 16 games remaining on the regular season schedule, the race for the two American League Wild Card spots continues to captivate the attention of baseball fans across the country. The Athletics enter the home stretch as the favorites to secure the first Wild Card after taking two out of three from the Orioles at home. Even with this weekend's setback against Oakland, Baltimore remains in the mix to overtake the A's as it currently occupies the second Wild Card with the Angels lurking two and a half games behind.

Beyond the two top contenders, three teams (excluding current division leaders in New York, Chicago and Texas) have a healthy chance of sneaking into the playoffs by staking a claim to one of the Wild Card berths with a strong finish. The Rays, four games behind the Orioles for the second spot, are among the teams hoping to extend their season well into October and will rely on their talented young pitching staff to get there. Just behind Tampa Bay at four and a half games behind Baltimore, the Tigers may be more likely to catch the White Sox for the division title as only two games separate the teams.

Which Two Teams Will Claim The AL Wild Card Spots?
1. Athletics, 2. Orioles 48.77% (5,611 votes)
1. Orioles, 2. Athletics 11.78% (1,355 votes)
1. Athletics, 2. Angels 11.54% (1,328 votes)
Other 7.92% (911 votes)
1. Athletics, 2. Rays 6.84% (787 votes)
1. Orioles, 2. Angels 4.73% (544 votes)
1. Orioles, 2. Rays 3.47% (399 votes)
1. Athletics, 2. Tigers 2.74% (315 votes)
1. Orioles, 2. Tigers 2.21% (254 votes)
Total Votes: 11,504
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Poll: The Second NL Wild Card Spot

By Mike Axisa | September 15, 2012 at 7:54pm CDT

When commissioner Bud Selig and the rest of MLB’s leadership implemented the new playoff system earlier this year, one of the goals was create more excitement and races at the end of the season. The Braves came into the day with a comfortable five-game lead for the first Wild Card spot, but the second spot is very much up for grabs.

The Cardinals currently lead the race for the second Wild Card spot, but the Dodgers and Pirates sit just two games back. The surging Brewers are just three games back, the Phillies and Diamondbacks four back. By the end of the night, the race could be even closer. With roughly 17 games left to play and six teams legitimately in the running for that second Wild Card spot, expect there to be a mad dash to the finish line for the right to play Atlanta in a one-game playoff.

Which team will win the second NL Wild Card spot?
Cardinals (currently leading) 33.72% (3,656 votes)
Dodgers (2.0 GB) 27.68% (3,001 votes)
Phillies (4.0 GB) 15.20% (1,648 votes)
Brewers (3.0 GB) 11.40% (1,236 votes)
Pirates (2.0 GB) 10.38% (1,125 votes)
Diamondbacks (4.0 GB) 1.63% (177 votes)
Total Votes: 10,843
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Poll: What’s Been The Most Unlikely Storyline In ’12?

By Daniel Seco 2 | September 9, 2012 at 8:22pm CDT

A quick look at the 2012 Major League Baseball season reveals a year full of compelling happenings and surprising events that have captivated the attention of the baseball world. From the success of rookie outfielder Mike Trout, who spent the majority of the season playing at age 20, to teams like the Orioles and Athletics mounting viable charges for playoff spots as September quickly gives way to October, this regular season has turned countless heads with mere weeks remaining. Simply put, surprise after surprise has made for good theater. 

Consider the seven choices presented below to help determine which storyline has been the most unlikely during the 2012 Major League Baseball season thus far. Have a different player, team or memory in mind? Head to the comment section to leave a thoughtful response citing your case. 

What's Been The Most Unlikely Storyline In 2012?
The Orioles contending for a playoff spot in September 39.84% (7,469 votes)
The A's contending for a playoff spot in September 16.13% (3,023 votes)
The Nationals entering play on Sept. 10 with the best record in MLB 13.19% (2,473 votes)
Mets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey's 18-4 record 10.64% (1,994 votes)
Three perfect games and three no-hitters in one season 10.20% (1,912 votes)
The success of Angels outfielder Mike Trout 7.78% (1,459 votes)
Other 2.22% (417 votes)
Total Votes: 18,747
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Poll: The Stephen Strasburg Shutdown

By Mike Axisa | September 8, 2012 at 7:49pm CDT

Uspw_6522090Innings limits and pitch counts are a relatively new phenomenon in baseball, as clubs go to great lengths to protect both their top young arms as well as their investments. No workload limitation in history has garnered as much national attention as Stephen Strasburg’s, the 24-year-old former first overall draft pick, first-time All-Star in 2012, and Tommy John surgery survivor.

Nationals manager Davey Johnson announced this morning that last night’s five-run, three-inning outing against the Marlins would be Strasburg’s final start of the season, one fewer than originally announced. The skipper cited excessive media attention and other distractions that he felt were hurting the team overall, so he decided to pull the plug at 159 1/3 innings and 28 starts. Strasburg’s performance during those 28 starts was Cy Young caliber, a 3.16 ERA with a league-best 11.1 K/9.

Of course, what makes the shutdown so intriguing is that the Nationals are in contention. They own baseball’s best record at 86-53 following this afternoon’s walk-off win, and are almost guaranteed to make the franchise’s first postseason appearance since moving to the nation’s capital from Montreal in 2005. A World Series contender voluntarily shutting down their best pitcher is certainly a controversial move worthy of debate.

That said, the Nationals are built for the long-haul. They’ll still go into the postseason with a front three of Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Edwin Jackson, which is as good as any rotation in the game. Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and other core players are all on the right side of 30 as well. The Nats are as good a bet as any team to remain competitive going forward. Shutting Strasburg down could cost them a shot at the World Series this year, but it may greatly increase their chances of winning multiple titles in the future.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Did the Nats make the right call shutting Strasburg down?
No 60.65% (8,988 votes)
Yes 39.35% (5,832 votes)
Total Votes: 14,820
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MLBTR Polls Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg

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Poll: Who Will Win The American League East?

By Mark Polishuk | September 6, 2012 at 5:28pm CDT

Tonight at Camden Yards, the Orioles and Yankees begin a four-game series that will serve as the most important September baseball in Baltimore in 15 years.  The Yankees seemingly had the AL East in hand at the All-Star break, but the Bombers have won just 20 of 45 games since July 19 and now sit just one game ahead of the surprising O's, who refuse to fade away. 

Despite a -21 run differential, the Orioles have relied on a superb bullpen and an astonishing 24-7 record in one-run games to stay within sight of their first postseason berth (and winning season) since 1997.  Predicted by most pundits to finish last in the AL East and then predicted to fall back to earth after a strong start, Baltimore has instead gotten even better, posting a 21-11 record in August and September.  While Adam Jones has enjoyed a breakout year, the O's lineup has been largely boosted by hitters going on timely hot streaks — Nick Markakis has a .902 OPS since being moved to the leadoff spot, Mark Reynolds has a .917 OPS and 10 homers since July 19 and unheralded bench players like Lew Ford and Nate McLouth have stepped up with key hits. 

The Orioles have 10 games remaining against the Yankees and Rays but otherwise has a fairly favorable schedule over the rest of the season, with only a three-game series in Oakland standing out as another battle with a playoff contender.  The O's do have six games remaining against the Red Sox, however, and it would be ironic if Boston avenged their 2011 collapse in Baltimore by spoiling the Orioles' postseason hopes.

Injuries have played a major role in the Yankees' slide, as C.C. Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Brett Gardner, Ivan Nova and Andy Pettitte have all spent time on the DL, and in the cases of Rivera and Gardner, missed much of the season.  Beyond health, however, New York has also been plagued by a lack of situational hitting, as the Yankees have had trouble scoring with runners in position.  The Yankees' main offensive weapon is the solo home run — not a bad problem to have, but it leads to a somewhat one-dimensional offense that has issues generating runs when the ball isn't flying out of the park.

The Yankees have just seven remaining games against the Rays and Orioles and also face the A's in a three-game series in September.  Beyond those matchups, the Yankees' other 16 games are against the Twins, Red Sox and Blue Jays, so there's plenty of opportunity for the Bombers to re-establish their lead atop the division.

With so much media focus within the division going to the Orioles' Cinderella run, the Yankees' possible collapse and the Red Sox and Blue Jays' disappointing seasons, the Rays' surge back into the playoff race has flown under the radar.  Tampa Bay was just 49-47 on July 22 in large part due to a lack of offensive production, as the likes of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena were underperforming while Evan Longoria was on the disabled list.  Since that date, however, the Rays are 26-15 and sit just 2.5 games back of first place.  With Longoria back and one of the league's best starting rotations in fine form, the Rays are positioned to make another playoff appearance. 

The Rays have nine games remaining against the O's and Yankees, plus a four-game set with the White Sox and a three-game series with the Rangers beginning on Friday.

The Orioles currently hold the top wild card slot, with the Rays 1.5 games behind Oakland for the second wild card.  It's very possible that the two division runners-up could make the postseason anyway, though obviously all three teams would prefer to win the AL East and avoid the sudden-death wild card game.  Which club will end up atop baseball's toughest division come the end of the regular season?

 

Who will win the AL East?
Baltimore Orioles 44.80% (4,645 votes)
New York Yankees 34.21% (3,547 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 20.99% (2,176 votes)
Total Votes: 10,368
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Poll: Which NL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?

By Daniel Seco 2 | September 2, 2012 at 9:00pm CDT

Last week MLBTR asked readers to consider the performances of American League general managers to determine which executive made the best offseason moves based upon the 2012 season thus far and long-term outlook. With over 19,500 votes, Billy Beane of the Athletics received 33.57% of the total in recognition of the moves he made this offseason which have led to his team's success this year. 

Today's poll heads to the Senior Circuit where the question becomes which National League general manager has made the best offseason moves. MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker provides a look back at all of the trades and moves that took place during the offseason to help make an informed choice.

Which NL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?
Mike Rizzo (Nationals) 29.62% (4,696 votes)
Ned Colletti (Dodgers) 14.16% (2,244 votes)
Walt Jocketty (Reds) 10.82% (1,715 votes)
Brian Sabean (Giants) 9.66% (1,532 votes)
John Mozeliak (Cardinals) 6.79% (1,077 votes)
Neal Huntington (Pirates) 6.39% (1,013 votes)
Frank Wren (Braves) 4.95% (784 votes)
Jed Hoyer (Cubs) 4.52% (716 votes)
Josh Byrnes (Padres) 2.80% (444 votes)
Jeff Luhnow (Astros) 2.71% (429 votes)
Doug Melvin (Brewers) 1.80% (285 votes)
Sandy Alderson (Mets) 1.73% (274 votes)
Ruben Amaro Jr. (Phillies) 1.63% (259 votes)
Michael Hill (Marlins) 1.10% (174 votes)
Kevin Towers (Diamondbacks) 0.85% (135 votes)
Dan O'Dowd (Rockies) 0.48% (76 votes)
Total Votes: 15,853
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Poll: Which AL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 30, 2012 at 10:04am CDT

Baseball’s 30 general managers complete hundreds of transactions every offseason as they look for ways of improving their respective teams. Some of those moves, such as the signing of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, generate tons of buzz. Others go unnoticed until the season begins and players start exceeding or falling short of expectations.

MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker offers a look back at last offseason’s moves (you can filter by team for more focused summaries). Now that the stretch run of the 2012 season is about to begin, let’s take stock of last winter’s moves. Taking into account both 2012 results and the long-term outlook, which American League general manager had the best 2011-12 offseason?

Which AL GM made the best offseason moves?
Billy Beane (Athletics) 33.58% (6,596 votes)
Dan Duquette (Orioles) 11.99% (2,355 votes)
Ben Cherington (Red Sox) 9.83% (1,931 votes)
Jerry Dipoto (Angels) 9.40% (1,847 votes)
Kenny Williams (White Sox) 7.70% (1,512 votes)
Brian Cashman (Yankees) 6.76% (1,328 votes)
Jon Daniels (Rangers) 5.92% (1,163 votes)
Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) 4.58% (899 votes)
Alex Anthopoulos (Blue Jays) 2.80% (550 votes)
Jack Zduriencik (Mariners) 2.80% (550 votes)
Andrew Friedman (Rays) 1.72% (338 votes)
Terry Ryan (Twins) 1.58% (311 votes)
Dayton Moore (Royals) 0.85% (166 votes)
Chris Antonetti (Indians) 0.50% (98 votes)
Total Votes: 19,644
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