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AL East Notes: Orioles, Yankees

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We'll kick off the first weekend of 2014 with a few quick AL East notes …

  • The Orioles have had trade discussions with the Mets involving not only Ike Davis, but also Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, reports Educardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. But, as we learned already with regard to Davis, the talks never gained much traction given the Mets' focus on picking up a top young arm from the Orioles' system.
  • Baltimore's first priority is adding starting pitching, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, taking precedence over the search for a DH and the possibility of adding a reliever. The O's are not shopping at the top end of that market, however. Meanwhile, the club's interest in Kendrys Morales is "waning," Kubatko senses. When asked whether the Baltimore roster was good enough to challenge for the post-season as presently constructed, executive VP Dan Duquette walked cautiously: "I think we have more work to do to accomplish that, but we're making progress. We added a couple left-handed hitters and there are some opportunities to help our pitching staff." 
  • Looking forward, the Yankees have six deals on the books that are likely to prove a burden, opines Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. The list (with remaining guaranteed years and money): Alex Rodriguez (four years, $90MM), Mark Teixeira (three years, $69.375MM), Ichiro Suzuki (1 year, $6.5MM), C.C. Sabathia (three years, $71MM), Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153MM), and Derek Jeter (1 year, $12MM). Of course, each of these contract situations carries different kinds of concerns. Three are somewhat unsurprisingly problematic back-ends of long-term deals, though there is still some hope that the Yanks will get some value out of the remainder of those contracts. Two appear to be fairly substantial short-term drains for an organization that hoped to get under the luxury tax threshhold, but otherwise will not impact finances past 2014. And one is a freshly-inked long-term contract that could become a problem in the future — much in the way the earlier Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia contracts have shaken out of late — but which was presumably necessary to lure a top-tier talent to the Bronx.

The Teams That Could Use Stephen Drew The Most

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Agent Scott Boras has a quality starting shortstop on his hands in free agent Stephen Drew.  Drew, 31 in March, bears the stigma of costing a draft pick to sign.  But in 2013 for the Red Sox, he hit .253/.333/.443 in 501 plate appearances and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs.  That tied for eighth-best in baseball among shortstops.

If you are a believer in projection systems, Drew will not be a top ten shortstop in 2014.  Using an average of projected 2014 WAR from Steamer, Oliver, and where available, ZiPS (all from FanGraphs), Drew ranks 23rd among starting shortstops with 2.0.  Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias rank below Drew, but they are close enough that he wouldn't be a clear upgrade.  We're left with six starting shortstops on whom Drew would be an upgrade, based on these projections: Jonathan Villar of the Astros, Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Ruben Tejada of the Mets, Pedro Florimon of the Twins, Alcides Escobar of the Royals, and Adeiny Hechavarria of the Marlins.  Let's look at each situation individually.

  • Astros: The Astros want to see what Villar, 23 in May, can do over the course of a full season.  The Astros viewed the outfield as a place to potentially add a hitter, so they acquired Dexter Fowler in December.  They also picked up first baseman/left fielder Jesus Guzman in another trade that month.  For the Astros to displace Villar and give up the #33 pick in the draft, Drew would have to come at an extreme bargain.  The Astros do not look like a fit, even if Drew would give them an extra win in 2014.
  • Yankees: GM Brian Cashman told Peter Gammons in late December his team won't be signing Drew, which is a fairly rare comment on a specific free agent.  Drew would only cost the #53 pick in the draft.  But even if it makes some sense in a spreadsheet, adding him as insurance for Jeter could be controversial.  Plus, the Yankees made a large commitment to Jeter and have more pressing needs right now.
  • Mets: One rival GM thinks the Mets are feigning disinterest in Drew, according to Gammons, as he would be an upgrade on Tejada.  Drew makes a ton of sense for the Mets, who would only have to surrender the #82 draft pick.  The Mets are by far the best match for Drew.
  • Twins: The Twins have spent $86.75MM on four free agents so far this winter, with 97% of that going toward pitching.  Their draft pick cost would be #43, and I don't see why they wouldn't give Drew serious consideration.  However, they seem set with Florimon.
  • Royals: The Royals have spent big on free agents Omar Infante and Jason Vargas this winter, but don't seem interested in upgrading on Escobar even if they could afford Drew.
  • Marlins: The Marlins have added four position players through free agency this winter, but they seem set with Hechavarria manning shortstop for years to come.

What about Drew's old team, the Red Sox?  He may have less than 100 big league plate appearances to his name, but 21-year-old phenom Xander Bogaerts projects to be better than Drew in 2014.  Re-signing Drew would mean not receiving a supplemental first round pick for losing him, so there is a cost in that regard.  Drew makes sense if the Red Sox are wary of using Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks as their starters on the left side of the infield, though.

It seems the Mets and Boras will continue to play chicken regarding Drew, but GM Sandy Alderson does have the upper hand in that no other suitor is emerging.  It seems to be the right time for a Mystery Team to step in.  One Hail Mary option for Boras could be to market Drew as a potential second or third baseman in 2014, for teams with entrenched shortstops.  Once again, Boras is tasked with pulling a rabbit out of his hat on a free agent client.  

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Scherzer, Papelbon, Mulder

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With Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana all in seeming free agent limbo after rejecting qualifying offers, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan argues that the current free agent compensation system has proven to be too limiting.  While teams will give up draft picks to sign bigger stars like Robinson Cano, the so-called second tier of free agents are finding it much harder to get work.  "Last offseason, there were a number of guys affected in ways different than we expected compared to a freer market to pursue jobs.  It appears that's happening again, " MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said.  One club executive suggested to Passan that teams could make qualifying offers to more free agents next winter given the evidence about how it pushes prices down for some players.

Here's some more from around baseball…

  • The Tigers have recently made several important moves in the post-Christmas offseason period, and 2014's big early-year move could be laying the groundwork for a Max Scherzer extension, MLB.com's Jason Beck opines.  Beck thinks GM Dave Dombrowski will look to a one-year deal for 2014 to avoid going to arbitration with Scherzer, and those talks could lead to negotiations with agent Scott Boras over a longer-term extension.
  • Also from Beck, he wonders if the Tigers could discuss a new contract with Miguel Cabrera (signed through 2015) or possibly add another reliever to the bullpen.  Detroit has already addressed its main bullpen need by signing closer Joe Nathan, and also acquired Ian Krol and Joba Chamberlain for the relief corps.
  • Jonathan Papelbon discussed his name surfacing in recent trade rumors, the differences between the Phillies' and Red Sox clubhouse atmospheres and his joy at seeing his ex-Boston teammates win the World Series last October in a frank radio interview with Rob Bradford and John McDonald on WEEI's Hot Stove Show.  A partial transcript of the interview is available at WEEI.com.
  • The Phillies were interested in Mark Mulder before the veteran signed with the Angels, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).
  • Forbes Magazine's Maury Brown discusses Major League Baseball's growing revenues and the effect on player salaries and acquisitions in a podcast with BostInno's Alex Reimer, who has a partial transcript of the interview here.
  • MLB.com's Anthony DiComo covers a number of Mets-related topics as part of a reader mailbag, including how he doesn't see Dee Gordon or Didi Gregorius as logical trade targets for the team.

Gammons On Gardner, Denorfia, Drew

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Here are some hot stove items from Peter Gammons in his latest piece for his namesake website, GammonsDaily.com…

  • Gammons adds the Phillies to the list of teams who "have taken a run" at acquiring Brett Gardner from the Yankees.  Philadelphia is one of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have checked in on Gardner — we've seen the Tigers, Reds, Indians, and Giants also linked to Gardner earlier in the offseason.  Both Yankees president Randy Levine and GM Brian Cashman have said they admire Gardner's play and aren't willing to move him, though Gammons feels that Cashman "won’t move [Gardner] until and unless [Cashman] has to for starting pitching."  This is just my speculation, but Gammons' phrasing could be a hint that the Yankees could shop Gardner if they fail to land Masahiro Tanaka.
  • The Rangers, Red Sox and Rockies are three of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have asked the Padres about Chris Denorfia.  Colorado's interest has presumably dried up due to their acquisition of Drew Stubbs.  San Diego GM Josh Byrnes isn't willing to discuss trading Denorfia as long as he feels the Padres can be contenders, and Byrnes thinks his club's offseason moves could put them in the playoff mix.  The Rangers also showed interest in Denorfia last July before the trade deadline.
  • Mets assistant GM J.P. Ricciardi recently claimed that his team was happy with Ruben Tejada as a starting shortstop and that the free agent shortstop market wasn't to the Mets' liking, but Gammons hears otherwise from an NL general manager.  The GM believes the Mets are concerned about their inexperience up the middle (Tejada at short, Juan Lagares in center and Travis d'Arnaud behind the plate) and are only seeming disinterested in Stephen Drew as part of negotiations with agent Scott Boras.
  • If Drew re-signs with the Red Sox, Gammons doesn't expect Boston to deal Will Middlebrooks, as the team still values his power.
  • The offseason's most interesting overlooked deal is the Athletics/Rangers swap that sent Craig Gentry to Oakland and Michael Choice to Texas, Gammons opines.  Gentry is a right-handed bat who can spell Coco Crisp in center or replace him in case of injury, and "the A’s think Gentry’s comp is at least Peter Bourjos," Gammons writes.  Choice, meanwhile, gives the Rangers a corner outfield bat who can spell Shin-Soo Choo against left-handed pitching.

East Notes: Red Sox, Orioles, Mets

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If the Red Sox don't re-sign Stephen Drew, they'll likely go into the 2014 season with Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, and that will be a gamble, given their inexperience, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes. To find a World Series-winning team that had rookies as their primary starters at center field and shortstop, one has to go all the way back to the 1959 Dodgers, with Don Demeter and Maury Wills. That doesn't prove much, of course. A few decades' worth of World Series-winning teams isn't a huge sample size, and as Speier points out, the Red Sox have recently blended in young up-the-middle players in Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie while still having very successful teams. But there may be value in having stability at tough defensive positions. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

Mets Still Talking With Stephen Drew

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The Mets are still in contact with Scott Boras, the agent for shortstop Stephen Drew, a person with knowledge of the talks tells Marc Carig of Newsday.  However, the source likened the situation to the Mets' pursuit of outfielder Michael Bourn late last winter, a chase that ended with the outfielder signing with the Indians.

The parallel here, in the source's view, is that the Mets made a serious run at signing Bourn mostly because he lowered his asking price late in the offseason.  Meanwhile, Mets assistant GM J.P. Ricciardi recently indicated in a radio interview that the club is happy with Ruben Tejada as their starting shortstop.  The Mets have been frustrated with Tejada's effort in the past, but they seem to believe that he is ready to turn things around in 2014.

Drew's market doesn't look any clearer as we approach the New Year.  The Red Sox have interest in bringing the shortstop back, but they're also determined to wait things out and get a deal that suits them.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Tanaka, Davis, Orioles

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Rangers owner Bob Simpson is happy to leave the baseball decisions to his staff, Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas writes. Simpson doesn't want to be a general manager like Cowboys counterpart Jerry Jones. "I don't and for the reasons everyone else wishes he wasn't," says Simpson. "I like Jerry, but we've got great people, so leave it to them." Simpson also notes that, with the signing of Shin-Soo Choo, the Rangers' projected payroll is between $130MM and $135MM for 2014. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • Simpson says signing Masahiro Tanaka would be "a tough thing," MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reports. "We aggressively went after Yu [Darvish], who we are fortunate to have. I guess I should never say never, but at the moment, we're more interested in just rounding out our team than marquee players," Simpson says. The Rangers have already added Choo and Prince Fielder this offseason. 
  • Earlier today, a report indicated that the Mets were trying to get the Orioles to trade lefty pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez for first baseman Ike Davis, but that, so far, the Orioles had refused to do so. Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun now tweets that the O's would have to be "blown away" to deal Rodriguez. MLB.com ranks Rodriguez the Orioles' third-best prospect.

Mets’ Ricciardi On Ruben Tejada, Draft Picks

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The Mets are happy with Ruben Tejada as their starting shortstop, special assistant J.P. Ricciardi tells WEEI's Rob Bradford and John McDonald (yes, that John McDonald). "I think in Ruben’€™s case, he got a lot early in his career and I think he’€™s starting to realize that he has to work a lot harder than he has in the past, and he has," Ricciardi says. "I think next year he’€™s going to be a better player than he was this previous year."

Stephen Drew remains a free agent and would provide an immediate upgrade at shortstop. While Ricciardi doesn't go into details about Drew in particular, he makes clear that the shortstop market is not what the Mets would like it to be. "I think in this case there’€™s a lot of shortstops that are already in place," says Ricciardi.

Last week, Mets GM Sandy Alderson said the Mets were also exploring trade possibilities at the position, but that there was a greater chance than there was at the beginning of the offseason that Tejada would open 2014 as the team's starting shortstop.

While it doesn't necessarily sound like the Mets will be big players for Drew, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, Ricciardi notes that, in general, he thinks the issue of draft pick forfeiture is only a minor consideration. The Mets' first-round pick in 2014, No. 10 overall, is protected, but the team already gave up its second-round pick to sign Curtis Granderson. "One of the things that is happening in baseball right now, that I scratch my head with [is that] young players are so overvalued right now, and I think falls in with the draft picks, too," Ricciardi says. "No one builds through the draft. You add through the draft." Ricciardi says that, to him, proven big-league players are more valuable.

Mets Still Talking Ike Davis With Brewers, O’s, Pirates

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The Ike Davis rumor mill has calmed down as the holiday season has set in, but Mike Puma of the New York Post provides an update (Twitter link). The Mets remain in contact with the Brewers, Pirates and Orioles regarding Davis, but the team has been unsuccessful in its efforts to pry top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez away from Baltimore.

That the Mets are interested in Rodriguez is no surprise, but neither is the fact that the Orioles won't deal him for Davis. Rodriguez, a 20-year-old left-hander, posted a combined 3.41 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 145 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2013. His numbers took a hit upon reaching Double-A (4.22 ERA in 59 2/3 innings), but that isn't all that alarming when considering the fact that he was one of the youngest players in the league. The average age of pitchers in the Eastern League, for context, was 24.6. Hitters in the Eastern League had an average age of 24.4.

This isn't the first time Rodriguez's name has appeared on the rumor mill, as the Twins reportedly asked for the lefty in exchange for Josh Willingham when the Orioles claimed Willingham on waivers in August. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo currently ranks Rodriguez as baseball's No. 85 prospect, and ESPN's Keith Law ranked him No. 44 in his midseason Top 50 prospect list in July (Insider required). Baseball America ranks him third among O's prospects — behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman — noting in their subscription-only scouting report that he has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter.

In short, Rodriguez is a lofty asking price for Mets GM Sandy Alderson when peddling Davis to other clubs — higher than his reported asking price of Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. Davis is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.5MM in 2014 and can be controlled through the 2016 season.

Mets Claim Ryan Reid

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The Mets have claimed right-hander Ryan Reid off waivers from the Pirates, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish (Twitter link). Reid was designated for assignment last week along with Jerry Sands to clear roster space for Clint Barmes and Edinson Volquez.

The 28-year-old Reid made his big league debut for the Buccos in 2013 and pitched well, posting a 1.64 ERA with seven punchouts and three walks in 11 innings of work. He posted a 51.5 percent ground-ball rate and averaged 91.9 mph on his fastball in that brief Major League sample. Reid has enjoyed continued success as a reliever in the minors, as evidenced by his career 3.57 ERA in 194 innings at Triple-A. He's averaged 8.6 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings in parts of three seasons at that level.

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