Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
The Mets' attempt to re-sign Jose Reyes will dominate their offseason and determine how much they can spend on other areas of need, like the bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Johan Santana, SP: $55MM through 2013, unless 2014 option becomes player choice
- Jason Bay, LF: $35MM through 2013, unless 2014 option vests
- David Wright, 3B: $16MM through 2012; Wright may void 2013 club option if traded
- R.A. Dickey, SP: $4.55MM through 2012
- D.J. Carrasco, RP: $1.2MM through 2012
- Tim Byrdak, RP: signed through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Manny Acosta, RP: $1MM
- Mike Pelfrey, SP: $5.9MM
- Ronny Paulino, C:, $1.5MM (non-tender candidate)
- Angel Pagan, CF: $4.7MM (non-tender candidate)
- Taylor Buchholz, RP: $1.2MM (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Jose Reyes (Type A SS), Ryota Igarashi (unranked RP), Chris Capuano (unranked SP), Scott Hairston (unranked OF), Chris Young (unranked SP), Willie Harris (unranked IF/OF), Miguel Batista (unranked RP), Jason Isringhausen (unranked RP)
As expected, 2011 was a year of transition for the Mets. New GM Sandy Alderson did fine work in escaping Francisco Rodriguez's vesting option and maximizing the return on Carlos Beltran. Alderson's most debatable decision, though, was not trading Jose Reyes at the July deadline. Reyes' status is now likely to shape the Mets' offseason.
Reyes missed about six weeks of the season, enduring two separate DL stints due to a hamstring injury. The Mets must determine whether they see Reyes as a player who can be depended upon for only 130 games a year moving forward, or one capable of returning to the 150-games-played plateau. Reyes' season was phenomenal even with the time missed, and his strong finish bodes well for him in free agency. Still, all five to seven year, $100MM+ contracts are very risky. So far, Alderson's biggest risk as Mets GM was keeping Reyes. If that July decision doesn't result in an offseason discount, the Mets will have to settle for a couple of draft picks.
Wright had a disappointing season as he missed more than two months with a back injury. Trading him now would result in a disappointing return. Wright can void his 2013 club option if traded, meaning Alderson only would be offering one season of the third baseman. The Beltran formula might be applied here: Alderson could hope Wright rebuilds his value in the first few months of 2012 and becomes the best bat on the trade market. Players like Pelfrey and Pagan could also become useful trade chips. I'd tender contracts to both despite their disappointing 2011 seasons.
If the Mets don't re-sign Reyes, another consolidation season might be in order. Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Josh Thole had promising seasons, and the rotation has useful pieces. Still, the team is facing question marks all around the diamond and in the rotation. I think they can contend if Reyes returns and Wright, Santana, and Bay also contribute star-caliber seasons, but that's unlikely and reason to find Alderson's decision to keep Reyes confusing. In Alderson's defense, Reyes spent half of July on the disabled list, perhaps cutting down his trade value to the point that two draft picks wasn't much worse.
A $110MM payroll would give the Mets plenty of flexibility, and the bullpen will be one focus. I expect Alderson to make improvements, yet still exercise caution and avoid a big commitment to any one reliever. The rotation is a similar issue, with Alderson needing to make a few more Capuano-type signings. Hopefully if Reyes leaves there won't be an expectation to spend the entire surplus just for the sake of spending. The team just has too many questions to make 2012 contention likely.
Plenty of questions remain in Irving Picard's lawsuit against Mets owners Saul Katz and Fred Wilpon, but the tide seems to be turning in the owners' favor with a judge capping their potential loss at $386MM. Should Picard fail to prove the Mets owners were willfully blind to Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, they might have to pay out less than $100MM.
Perhaps by 2013 the Mets can have the Picard lawsuit settled and the decks mostly cleared of bad contracts. Alderson can make determinations on the futures of Reyes and Wright, while his other big-money players, Santana and Bay, will be entering their walk years barring vesting options. The Mets will have more clarity on players such as Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Duda, and Murphy, while Jenrry Mejia should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. If Alderson continues laying a proper foundation, the Mets should be competitive by '13.
East Notes: Backman, Red Sox, Rays, Phillies
Here are a handful of items out of the AL and NL East …
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson cites three different sources in reporting that Wally Backman, who currently manages in the Mets minor league system, was never offered a position with the Nationals' Major League club.
- Backman told Ed Randall of New York's WFAN radio that he will remain in the organization rather than accepting a position on another team's Major League staff, according to MetsBlog. Backman interviewed for the Mets' managerial vacancy before it went to Terry Collins last year.
- The Red Sox are not expected to interview former Diamondbacks skipper A.J. Hinch for their managerial vacancy, a source familiar with the situation tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Hinch is currently vice president of pro scouting for the Padres.
- The Rays are unlikely to make quick decisions on whether to re-sign free agents Johnny Damon and first baseman Casey Kotchman, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Tampa will look to improve its offense, according to Topkin, but that won't be easy without detracting from its deep well of pitching talent, which it won't want to do. Andrew Friedman will likely do most of his roster shuffling via trade, writes Topkin.
- As their core position players are getting older and dealing with injuries, the Phillies' window of opportunity may be closing, opines Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. One talent evaluator told Brookover that the Phillies should let Jimmy Rollins walk in free agency. "It might be time to find out about a guy like Freddy Galvis," the scout said. "I saw him this year and he really is improving. I don't know if he's ready to be an everyday player in the big leagues, but I just think they need to get younger."
- Former Yankees pitching prospect Brandon Weeden, now 28, has resurfaced as the starting quarterback of the Oklahoma State Cowboys, writes Tom Spousta of the New York Times (cap tip to Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues). Weeden was a second-round pick of the Yanks in 2002 (a compensatory selection for Tino Martinez signing with the Cardinals), but he washed out of baseball by 2007 due to injuries and ineffectiveness.
Quick Hits: Reyes, Darvish, Montero, Yankees
Some links as we look forward to Game 6 of the NLCS tonight..
- The only way Jose Reyes will sign in the exclusivity period is if the Mets blow him away with an offer, and that isn't happening, writes Steve Popper of the Bergen Record.
- With his team's spot in the playoffs already locked up, Yu Darvish will skip his start on October 18th, according to the Kyodo News Agency (Japanese link). Orioles player development director John Stockstill traveled to Japan to watch Darvish pitch in this game. (Translation provided by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker)
- The Yankees will look for in-house fixes this winter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman wonders aloud if the club might deal Jesus Montero for a starter and further open the DH slot, but a team official said that it wouldn't make sense to throw more dollars and add risk to the offense. Sherman added that he doesn't sense that the club has a strong affinity for free agent left-hander C.J. Wilson.
- Some of the Red Sox coaches have been granted permission to explore other opportunities while awaiting their fate, multiple sources tell Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
Heyman On Pujols, Fielder, Mets, White Sox
Albert Pujols' impressive postseason performance has increased his free agent stock, Jon Heyman writes at SI.com. Some say the Cardinals won't improve their offer from nine-years and a bit more than $200MM, but their postseason success may help their chances of re-signing the three-time MVP. Here are the details and more of Heyman's notes from around the league:
- MLB executives tell Heyman that they expect Pujols to sign for more than Prince Fielder despite Fielder's youth (he's four years younger than Pujols).
- Heyman's sources generally expect Pujols to stay in St. Louis, but predicting Fielder's next team is much more difficult.
- Some of Heyman's sources expect Fielder to sign a deal similar to Adrian Gonzalez's seven-year, $154MM extension. I don't think it's a great comp, since Gonzalez didn't sign his deal on the open market.
- Heyman reports (on Twitter) that the Mets have hired former A's manager Bob Geren as their bench coach. Interestingly, the A's hired manager Bob Melvin after a stint with the Mets.
- The White Sox didn't seriously consider anyone other than Robin Ventura once they decided they wanted the former third baseman to be their next manager.
- Francisco Rodriguez told Heyman that he'd like a three-year deal.
- The Pirates are looking for starting pitching. It appears that they'll decline Paul Maholm's option for 2012.
Orioles GM Links: Dipoto, Reagins, Levine, Ricciardi
Here's the latest from Baltimore as the O's look to replace Andy MacPhail…
- The Diamondbacks have given permission for the Orioles to interview Jerry Dipoto, reports Scott Miller of CBSSports.com. Dipoto is Arizona's senior VP of scouting and player development and served as the club's interim GM after Josh Byrnes was fired midway through the 2010 season.
- Dipoto's interview should come this weekend, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The Orioles also hope to speak to Al Avila (Tigers), Dan Jennings (Marlins), Tony LaCava (Blue Jays), De Jon Watson and Logan White (both Dodgers), all of whom have been mentioned in connection to the Baltimore job. Avila could be passed over since "the Orioles want to wrap up this process as soon as possible" and can't wait until the Tigers finish their playoff run.
- Two names that will apparently not be part of the process, according to Kubatko, are former Angels GM Tony Reagins and Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine. Both men could still resurface as candidates, Kubatko notes. Given that Texas is still alive in the postseason, Levine could be facing the same issue as Avila.
- J.P. Ricciardi is on the "short list of decision-makers" that the Orioles are considering, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. Since the O's are just starting their search, Olney says it's too early to say if Ricciardi or any others on the short list are favorites for the job. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports (via Twitter) that the Mets haven't received requests from any team to interview Ricciardi or Paul DePodesta about a general managing job.
- No surprise here, but Olney says "it's pretty clear that Buck Showalter will have extensive influence in the selection of the Orioles' GM."
Rangers Links: Wilson, Napoli, Cruz
After allowing six runs in six innings today against the Tigers, C.J. Wilson now has an 8.04 ERA in three postseason starts this year. Not only did it hurt the Rangers in Game Five of the ALCS, but, as you'll read, Wilson's free agent value will also likely be hurt by his recent struggles. Here's the latest on the Rangers…
- A strong postseason could put Wilson in line for a five or six-year contract worth between $85-$100MM this winter, an agent tells ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link). A weak postseason performance, however, could limit Wilson to a deal of five years and $60-$65MM. In August, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes noted that Wilson could crack the $100MM club due to the lack of ace pitchers on the free agent market this winter.
- GM Jon Daniels today spoke to reporters, including Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas, about Wilson's impending free agency. While the Rangers haven't yet begun negotiations, Daniels said the front office staff has "spent a lot of time talking about it and preparing for it. We just don't want it to be a distraction any more than it is, naturally."
- Daniels described the market value for Wilson as being "probably bigger than we would like and probably right about what he would like. We're not even really spending too much time on that right now. Obviously, it's going to be a top priority for us."
- The Rangers couldn't acquire Mike Napoli directly from the Angels since Los Angeles wasn't going to deal Napoli within the division, reports Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (Twitter link). Once Napoli was dealt to Toronto in the Vernon Wells trade, the Rangers "pounced" to acquire Napoli for Frank Francisco and the rest is history.
- You can't blame former Mets general manager Steve Phillips for trading away Nelson Cruz in 2000, writes MetsBlog.com's Matthew Cerrone. The Mets originally signed Cruz as an amateur free agent in 1998, when Cruz was 17, and then dealt him to Oakland two years later.
- As reported earlier today by ESPN New York's Wallace Matthews, the Rangers are planning to make C.C. Sabathia a contract offer this winter, provided that Sabathia opts out of his contract with the Yankees.
Front Office Notes: Orioles, Yankees, Angels
Theo Epstein's signing with the Cubs was the big news of the day, but there's plenty of other front office news in baseball..
- The Orioles are no longer considering Josh Byrnes, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.
- Yesterday we learned that Josh Byrnes (Padres), Gerry Hunsicker (Rays), J.P. Ricciardi (Mets), Thad Levine (Rangers), Tony LaCava (Blue Jays), and Dan Jennings (Marlins) are candidates to become the Orioles' next GM. The wishlist now includes Jerry Dipoto (Diamondbacks), Logan White (Dodgers), Al Avila (Tigers), Tony Reagins (formerly of the Angels), and DeJon Watson (Dodgers), according to Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun.
- The Yankees have granted the Angels permission to interview both Billy Eppler and Damon Oppenheimer for their vacant general manager job, tweets Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) believes that Oppenheimer would be a good fit as the GM of the Halos.
- As of this evening, no teams have asked permission to speak with any of the Mets assistant GMs about job openings, Newsday's David Lennon tweets.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Morgan
Jimmy Rollins said earlier today that there's a "good chance" he re-signs with the Phillies after the season. Here are some more updates from around the NL East, where all five teams are in offseason mode…
- Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract ranks fourth on Joe Posnanski's list of the ten worst contracts in baseball at SI.com. Howard, whose deal kicks in next season, is "becoming a less and less useful player all the time," Posnanski writes.
- The Phillies interviewed Orioles scouting director Joe Jordan for their director of player development position this week, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Philadelphia now has a short window to decide whether they're going to offer Jordan the job, which previously fell under Chuck LaMar's responsibilities.
- The Phillies will look to sign a free agent closer this offseason and a division rival could be interested in similar relievers. GM Sandy Alderson has hinted that the Mets will find their next closer on the free agent market, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
- A Spring Training conflict between Jayson Werth and Nyjer Morgan nearly escalated to the point that punches were thrown, according to Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post. Now a member of the Brewers, Morgan has emerged as a star (along with his many alter egos).
NL East Notes: K-Rod, Riggleman, Geren, Walker
Ten years ago today, the Braves signed 16-year-old right-hander Jose Ascanio out of Venezuela. Six years later they traded him to the Cubs for Omar Infante and Will Ohman, and two years after that he was part of a package for Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. Here are some links from the NL East…
- "We haven't ruled anything out," said a Mets official to ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand when asked if a reunion with impending free agent Francisco Rodriguez was a possibility. "We need a closer. It is a long way down the road. We haven't had those meetings yet. But, for us, I wouldn't rule anything out."
- The Mets will interview Jim Riggleman and Bob Geren for their bench coach job, reports Andy McCullough of The Star Ledger (on Twitter) and MLB.com's Adam Berry. Back in June, Riggleman resigned as Nationals manager and Geren was fired as Athletics manager.
- The Braves will interview former White Sox hitting coach Greg Walker for the same role, reports Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago. The Padres will also interview Walker, says to Levine.
- In a mailbag, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro answered a series of questions about players the Marlins could target in free agency. Here's Tim Dierkes' offseason outlook for the club.
Cafardo On Epstein, Red Sox, Sabathia, Rays
If Theo Epstein winds up taking the Cubs' GM job, then the spotlight again will be directed at Red Sox president/CEO Larry Lucchino, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Even if the club tabbed longtime exec Ben Cherington as general manager, it would take time before Cherington would have complete control over the operations. Here's more from Cafardo..
- There's growing sentiment that C.C. Sabathia will opt out of his contract with the Yankees. The Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers, and Giants are among the usual suspects if the lefty hits the open market. Boston, however, might have doubts about Sabathia. Cafardo wonders if the front office would take on another sizeable pitching contract and add another overweight pitcher.
- The Rays will be able to make their rotation even scarier by adding 22-year-old Matt Moore to it. Tampa Bay also has righty Alex Cobb and lefty Alex Torres ready for the majors. The Rays could parlay their pitching depth into offense by trading Cobb, Torres, Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis if need be.
- The feeling is that Padres skipper Bud Black has a real chance of becoming the Angels next GM. Black, who is good friends with Mike Scioscia, doesn’t have front office experience but has a pitching expertise that would make him valuable in that position.
- Former Mets GM Omar Minaya thinks that Willie Randolph, Chip Hale, Tim Wallach, and Ryne Sandberg would all be good fits to manage in Boston. Minaya is currently an analyst for the MLB Network and is mulling over a few offers to return to baseball as an adviser to a GM. He expects to make a decision as the winter unfolds.
- Red Sox third base coach Tim Bogar could be retained when a new manager is named. There has also been speculation that Bogar is a candidate for bench coach under new White Sox manager Robin Ventura. Cafardo gives the White Sox credit for being decisive and hiring Robin Ventura rather than wait for a big name like Tony La Russa.
- Former Red Sox coach John McLaren is managing the Chinese national team and might be a candidate to become bench coach with the Mets.