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Keith Law’s Final Mock Draft

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Keith Law of ESPN.com has written up his final projections for tonight's draft. Here are some of the latest highlights (Insider subscription needed):

  • The D'Backs select UCLA righty Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick, meaning two of the first three picks will be Bruins after the Pirates take Gerrit Cole at No. 1 overall.
  • The Orioles, turned off by Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen's hefty contract demands, take prep righty Archie Bradley out of Oklahoma at No. 4. Dylan Bundy then falls to the Royals at No. 5, which Law says would be a steal, and Hultzen slides back to the D'Backs at No. 7, a "dream scenario" for Arizona. That could lead to tricky negotiations considering Hultzen's demands and the fact that the pick is unprotected after Barret Loux didn't sign last year, but Bauer and Hultzen  would represent quite a boon to the D'Backs' rotation in the near future.
  • The Mets meet their organizational mandate to take a pitcher at No. 13, selecting UConn righty Matt Barnes.
  • The Brewers, with an unprotected pick at No. 15, need to take a signable player, and may be looking at Vanderbilt righty Sonny Gray or Oregon lefty Tyler Anderson.
  • The Red Sox probably won't spend too wildly at No. 19 and could focus on a high-probability player like Alex Meyer of Kentucky as they did a year ago with Kolbrin Vitek.

Quick Hits: Reyes, Pirates, Garvey-Hershiser

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A few items of note for Sunday afternoon. On this day in 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Tim Beckham with the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft.

  • ESPN's Adam Rubin shares a video interview with Jose Reyes in which the Mets shortstop says he doesn't think about the constant trade rumors surrounding him because all he can control is his on-field performance.
  • Mike Pelfrey told Mark Hale of the New York Post that it would be tough for him as an individual, tough for the team, and tough for the fans to lose Reyes, whom he deems irreplaceable.
  • MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch covers the additional lefty relief options the Pirates have in Triple-A, and says that if a roster move needs to be made in order to appease manager Clint Hurdle's desire for another southpaw, Jose Ascanio is the most likely to be designated for assignment.
  • A Dodgers sale is not yet imminent, but Orel Hershiser has joined Steve Garvey and others, forming the Garvey-Hershiser Group, in hopes of bidding on the team should it be put up for sale by MLB, writes Jeff Painter of the Los Angeles Daily News. The Dodgers could be made for sale if Frank McCourt can't make the next payroll payments, according to Painter. Reports of Garvey's interest in purchasing the Dodgers first surfaced when MLB seized control of the team in April.
  • Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, slated for Tommy John surgery this week, hopes to "come back to the game with the Red Sox uniform," writes Mike Petraglia of WEEI.com. Since it typically takes pitchers at least a calendar year to return from the surgery, Dice-K, whose six-year contract expires after 2012, may have played his last game for Boston and perhaps in MLB.
  • The Phillies' debt situation is broken down by David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News in the wake of Friday's news that the Phils are one of nine teams in violation of MLB's debt service rules. The takeaway: The Phils are in relatively solid financial standing, as the franchise is paid off, with their current debt representing only a "momentary hiccup," writes Murphy.

Cafardo’s Latest: Beltran, Guerrero, Marquis, Soria

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses Buster Posey and Scott Cousins, examines what went wrong with Daisuke Matsuzaka, and lists 25 of baseball's most passionate people. Here are the other highlights from Cafardo's piece:

  • A National League talent evaluator on Carlos Beltran: "A contending team is going to get Beltran at the trading deadline, and they’re going to be very happy with him. He can still hit. He can be an emotional guy, but put him in a place where it counts, and he’ll produce for you."
  • At least a couple National League teams are eyeing Vladimir Guerrero as a potential trade deadline pickup. As Cafardo notes, the primary concern for NL clubs is how significant a defensive liability Guerrero would be.
  • Jason Marquis could be had in a trade if the Nationals received young talent in return. Cafardo speculates that Josh Reddick would be enough to acquire Marquis, but the Red Sox appear to be content with Tim Wakefield at the back of their rotation for now.
  • Joakim Soria's demotion from the closer's role doesn't make him any more available via trade. Cafardo spoke to Royals people who said the team still wasn't considering dealing Soria.

Quick Hits: Giants, Tejada, Mets, Hall

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The draft is right around the corner but there's still plenty more going on in the world of baseball..

  • The rise of Emmanuel Burriss combined with the return of Pablo Sandoval could push Miguel Tejada out the door, writes Carl Steward of the Mercury News.  Even though eating Tejada's contract is less than ideal, Giants GM Brian Sabean has often said that he wants the best 25 players active and contributing, regardless of contract.
  • The Mets have released Double-A outfielder Carlos Guzman, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter).  Guzman, 25, was let go in order to make room Bubba Bell and Erik Turgeon, who are moving down from Triple-A Buffalo.
  • Mets manager Terry Collins plans to continue using closer Francisco Rodriguez in high-leverage, non-save situations late in games, write Anthony DiComo and Aaron Taube of MLB.com. The Mets have used K-Rod liberally despite his looming 2012 option for $17.5MM, which vests if he finishes 55 games this year.
  • Astros GM Ed Wade checked with both Drayton McLane and new owner Jim Crane before releasing Bill Hall, tweets Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.  Wade called the move "a big economic hit before [Crane] even takes control of the club."

Rosenthal On Wood, White Sox, Reyes, Rays, Dodgers

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Let's check out the latest edition of Full Count from FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal..

  • Cubs reliever Kerry Wood is likely to be in high demand at the deadline, in part because his salary this year is just $1.5MM.  The Cubs gave him a full no-trade clause and Wood told Rosenthal that he hasn't thought about what he would do if the team asked him to waive it.  After all, Wood came back to Chicago to be with his family and to lay the groundwork for a job with the organization after his career is through.
  • The White Sox expect teams to inquire about their surplus of starting pitching, with Edwin Jackson as their most obvious trade candidate as he is a potential free agent.  However, GM Ken Williams wouldn't necessarily seek offense in return.  Instead, they'd prefer a right-handed reliever or even prospects.  If the White Sox were to add a bat, they wouldn't know where to put it in the lineup.
  • The Rays have been sliding as of late but are still in contention in the AL East so we can expect them to be buyers.  With offense as their biggest need, it wouldn't be surprising to see them inquire on Jose Reyes, but they likely won't land him.  Tampa Bay would have to part with top-notch prospects to pull off such a deal, and prospects are more valuable for the Rays than they are for most teams.
  • The Dodgers were hoping to bounce back in the NL West once they got healthy, but a second rash of injuries has left them depleted again.  If the Dodgers ever do get healthy, Rosenthal expects them to go after a power bat to put in left field or at third base.

Quick Hits: Orioles, Danks, Athletics, Yankees, Mets

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Tampa Bay selected Jose Bautista off of waivers from the Orioles on this date in 2004.  That was, of course, before the Rays dropped the "Devil" portion of their nickname and before Jose Bautista was Jose Bautista..

Nine Teams In Violation Of Debt Service Rules

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The Dodgers and Mets are among the nine MLB teams in violation of MLB’s debt service rules, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. The regulations came into being in 2002 and are intended to limit a team’s debt to ten times its yearly earnings and ensure that each team can pay its bills. The Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, Marlins, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals are also in violation of the rules, according to Shaikin.

MLB executive VP of labor relations Rob Manfred says he isn’t “concerned about the overall economic condition of the industry" and a National League executive called the high number of teams out of compliance a “hiccup” for an otherwise healthy league.

Along with the competitive balance tax and revenue sharing, the debt service rule figures to be a major financial issue in the negotiations for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the players and the owners. The Phillies have confirmed that they are not currently compliant with the debt-service rule, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Wright’s 2013 Option Only Applies To Mets

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If the Mets trade David Wright, the acquiring team will only get him for one year after 2011. The 2013 team option in the third baseman’s contract is only valid if he’s on the Mets, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

The Mets aren’t actively discussing the possibility of shopping Wright, according to Martino. Because the 2013 option doesn’t apply to other teams, the Mets would have a harder time obtaining a major haul for the five-time All-Star. Wright earns $14MM this year and $15MM in 2012. The Mets have a $16MM option ($1MM buyout) for his services in 2013.

Wright has maintained that he doesn't want to be traded despite the Mets' struggles. He has a .226/.337/.404 line with six homers and nine steals this year – not 'superstar' production, but good enough for an OPS+ of 107.

Law On Royals, Josh Bell, Dodgers, Mets

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Draft junkies, you're missing out if you don't read Keith Law's latest chat at ESPN.  Insider is required to read it, and is well worth your money, but here are a few highlights.

  • With the fifth overall pick, Law sees the Royals taking a college arm or Dylan Bundy.  Law and Jim Callis of Baseball America projected them to take Matt Barnes or Gerrit Cole, respectively, in late May mock drafts.  MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo went with high school outfielder Bubba Starling in a mock draft published today.  Mayo mentions UCLA righty Trevor Bauer and high school shortstop Francisco Lindor as well, but Law says the Royals are not on Lindor.
  • One team that is in on Lindor is the Mariners at #2, as ESPN's Shannon Drayer tweets that they worked him out at Safeco Field.  However, Law says that while the Ms like Lindor and Starling, he doubts they'd pass on Anthony Rendon if the Pirates take someone else.
  • Law hears rumors that the Tigers and Red Sox are in on high school outfielder Josh Bell, a Boras Corporation advisee who sent a letter to the MLB Scouting Bureau saying he intends to honor his commitment to the University of Texas and does not want to be drafted.  Law hears a "widespread rumor" about the Tigers drafting Bell and offering $6MM, presumably with the #76 overall pick (their first).
  • The Red Sox don't know how the draft will change under the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, so they intend to take advantage of this year's draft, GM Theo Epstein told Ian Browne of MLB.com. Boston will select four of the first 40 players under second-year scouting director Amiel Sawdaye.
  • Law hears high school righty Robert Stephenson "very strongly" for the Dodgers at #16.  He also hears that the Dodgers can't go over slot with any pick, so hopefully Stephenson is comfortable with $1.8MM or so.  High school shortstop Javier Baez and high school righty Taylor Guerrieri have been projected for the Dodgers in various recent mock drafts.
  • Derek Fisher, a high school outfielder with "light-tower raw power" according to Law, will be a tough sign with demands of $2MM or more.
  • Silly numbers like Danny Hultzen's reported $13MM demand "just get ignored," says Law.  To get to know the University of Virginia southpaw, check out Josh Barr's article for the Washington Post.  The article says Hultzen has visited with officials from only the first six teams picking in the draft, and told those clubs what he'll need to sign.
  • The Mets are leaning toward a college arm at #13, writes Law.  Mayo went with Vanderbilt's Sonny Gray in today's mock.
  • For a look at each team's picks within the first 90, click here.

New York Notes: Cashman, Reyes, Wright

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On this date in 1925, Yankees first baseman Wally Pipp sat out after being hit in the head during batting practice. His replacement, a 21-year-old named Lou Gehrig, picked up three hits that day on his way to playing 2,130 consecutive games. Here's the latest out of New York…

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman has more cash at his disposal than any other general manager, but he recognizes the importance of the draft. "Our business is baseball, and that's the most important access to talent,” he told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “If you want to be championship-caliber, there's a lot of different avenues, but one you can not skip is the amateur pipeline. That's the foundation of eventual champions."
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says the Mets should keep Jose Reyes and David Wright long-term, not just one or the other. Team officials tell Rosenthal that, under certain circumstances, they could afford both infielders.
  • Reyes has returned from the Dominican Republic and is off of the bereavement list, Anthony DiComo writes at MLB.com (the shortstop returned home after the death of his grandmother).
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