Heyman’s Latest: Britton, Tigers, Tanaka, CC, Darvish, Holland, Moore
The trade that would have sent Zach Britton from the Orioles to the Astros included third baseman Colin Moran, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, but medical issues ultimately sank the deal. Moran was already on the disabled list after having suffered a concussion and a facial fracture when he fouled a ball off his face in mid-July, per Heyman, but there were also medical issues with one of the prospects that would have gone to Baltimore. That issue was found as the O’s sifted through medical paperwork, and though Houston tried to resurrect the deal in the final hours leading up to the non-waiver deadline, the two sides were ultimately unable to find a common ground. None of Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, Francis Martes, Forrest Whitley or Yordan Alvarez were offered in either iteration of the deal, he adds.
Some highlights from Heyman’s weekly American League and National League notes columns…
- The Tigers are “disappointed” in Nick Castellanos‘ defense at third base once again, as he’s taken a step back in that regard after seemingly making improvements in 2016. Heyman suggests that Castellanos may be available in trades this winter, and since he’s already cleared waivers, he could technically be moved anytime moving forward. (He wouldn’t be eligible for a postseason roster if he’s traded after today.) Heyman also notes that Ian Kinsler‘s preference may be to play for a contender, and the Tigers will again field offers on him this winter after making an easy call to exercise his $10MM option.
- The Yankees aren’t currently planning on “chasing” Masahiro Tanaka if he opts out of the remaining three years on his deal, with one source telling Heyman that the Yanks wouldn’t offer anything beyond the $67MM he’s still guaranteed. Tanaka has a 3.79 ERA with 116-to-19 K/BB ratio in 99 2/3 innings since May 26 and a 3.32 ERA with 10.3 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 since the calendar flipped to July. Heyman also notes that the Yankees could also be interested in retaining left-hander CC Sabathia on a one-year deal this offseason.
- Prior to trading Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, the Rangers “made clear” that they were “completely willing” to trade Darvish to the Astros. The Rangers, according to Heyman, asked for top-tier prospects from their division rivals, however, before ultimately landing on a package comprised largely of high-ceiling players in A-ball. Houston offered currently suspended (PEDs) top prospect David Paulino in a deal, and the two sides apparently never got especially close to reaching an agreement.
- Even with his recent struggles, Rockies closer Greg Holland still plans to decline his $15MM player option at season’s end in order to retest the free agent market. Holland looked unhittable for the season’s first two months before showing some red flags in June and July (as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron recently pointed out). Those troublesome trends have caught up to Holland in August, as he’s been torched for 14 runs on 14 hits (four homers) and six walks with eight strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings this month.
- Left-hander Matt Moore “sailed through” revocable trade waivers when the Giants put him through that process this month, per Heyman. Whether the Giants would want to or even be able to trade Moore is another question, but the possibility will be open through season’s end. Moore would have to be traded to a new team today in order to be eligible for that club’s postseason roster, though from a purely speculative standpoint, a non-contending club could look to buy low on Moore with an eye toward the 2018 campaign. The 28-year-old has struggled through the worst full season of his career in 2017, logging a dreadful 5.49 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 37.4 percent ground-ball rate in 154 innings of work. He’s been somewhat better since the All-Star break, but Moore’s stock is still at a low point. He has a $9MM option for the 2018 season and a $10MM option for 2019.
AL East Notes: Bird, Britton, Sedlock, Groome, Int’l
The Yankees have announced that they will bring first baseman Greg Bird back onto the MLB roster in time for tomorrow’s game, as Sweeny Murti of WFAN first reported on Twitter. Tyler Austin was optioned to create active roster space. Bird is finally back to health after struggling all year with ankle issues. As Murti notes, the 24-year-old turned in an 11-for-26 performance in his rehab stint. The Yankees will surely hope he can maintain that momentum upon his returning after posting an anemic .100/.250/.200 batting line in his first 72 plate appearances on the year.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Orioles closer Zach Britton gave some details on the positive outlook surrounding his bothersome left knee, as Roch Kubato of MASNsports.com writes. In the near term, Britton says, he ought to be able to continue pitching as he has since the problem first arose back in 2014. Looking ahead, he doesn’t believe he’ll need even minor offseason surgery.
- The Orioles will be exercising added caution with another pitcher, prospect Cody Sedlock, Kubatko further explains. Sedlock, 22, is dealing with a forearm strain, though executive VP of baseball ops Dan Duquette says it “sounds like it’s a muscle strain.” Still, Sedlock has already missed time with an elbow issue and the organization is understandably taking care. The 2016 first-rounder owns a 5.90 ERA through ninety frames at the High-A level this year, with 6.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.
- Likewise, 2016 Red Sox draftee Jay Groome will be shut down with a forearm strain, as Ian Browne of MLB.com tweets. The southpaw entered the season with quite a lot of hype but has encountered some troubles at the Class A level. He threw 44 1/3 innings over 11 starts there, with a 6.90 ERA and 11.8 K/9 against 5.1 BB/9 on his ledger. Of course, Groome only just turned 19, and clearly he’s still showing quite a bit of talent with that impressive strikeout rate. At this point, there’s no reason to think the injury will stunt his progress.
- The Red Sox and Yankees appear to be gearing up for a big international spending period, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes. Both organizations have struck deals to acquire pool money, boosting their initial $4.75MM allocations up to $8MM apiece. Heyman wonders whether the two AL East giants might be lining up a pile of cash to tempt Japanese superstar Shohei Otani, if he decides to make a move to the majors this winter, though it’s certainly also possible that the clubs are simply planning to add as much young talent from Latin America as they can.
MLB Announces Suspensions From Tigers-Yankees Brawl
The league has officially handed down suspensions arising out of yesterday’s fisticuffs between the Tigers and Yankees. Detroit star Miguel Cabrera received the stiffest discipline, with a seven-game ban owing to his “inciting the first bench-clearing incident and fighting.”
Cabrera isn’t the only one who’ll take some games of unpaid leave (pending appeal). Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez got four games for throwing punches in the melee — he was fortunate, perhaps, not to take a harsher punishment — while fellow New York backstop Austin Romine got two for his part in the tangle with Cabrera. That could cause the organization some troubles with filling out its catching situation, though it seems there’ll be some effort to ensure the suspensions aren’t served simultaneously.
In addition to losing their star for some time, the Tigers will go without reliever Alex Wilson for four games because he threw at Todd Frazier after warnings had been issued — and then admitted it (somewhat admirably) after the game. Detroit skipper Brad Ausmus will also sit one out contest due to Wilson’s actions.
All of those players received undisclosed fines. A variety of other participants were levied financial punishment as well. Needless to say, there’ll be plenty of debate over the league’s actions. Tigers righty Michael Fulmer was not suspended despite plunking Sanchez earlier in the game. Likewise, Yankees righty Tommy Kahnle won’t be banned despite throwing behind Cabrera. And fellow New York righty Dellin Betances also avoided punishment though he hit Tigers catcher James McCann in the helmet with a pitch after the initial brawl.
Blue Jays Interested In Extending Marco Estrada
Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada is scheduled to become a free agent in the offseason, but a trip to the open market isn’t a certainty. A member of the Toronto organization informed FanRag’s Robert Murray that there’s mutual interest in keeping Estrada in a Blue Jays uniform beyond this season.
“The player loves Toronto, the agent says publicly he doesn’t want to go anywhere,” the source said. “Frankly, we are open to extending him.”
Estrada is on the verge of completing the two-year, $26MM contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior to the 2016 season. Given his status as an impending free agent and Toronto’s longshot playoff hopes, Estrada seemed like a plausible summer trade candidate. And while the AL East rival Yankees claimed Estrada on revocable waivers this month, they did so in a blocking maneuver, Murray reports (Twitter link). Even if New York had real interest in acquiring Estrada before his 48-hour trade window expired, the Blue Jays weren’t keen on parting with him. In fact, manager John Gibbons told reporters Tuesday that the Jays “need” Estrada.
Despite Gibbons’ endorsement, the 34-year-old Estrada’s 5.09 ERA through 139 2/3 innings likely means his stock has dropped to some extent since the outset of the campaign. He entered the year having combined for a 3.30 ERA over 357 innings from 2015-16, his first two seasons in Toronto. Estrada did so in spite of unremarkable strikeout (7.46 K/9), walk (3.03 BB/9) and ground-ball (32.8 percent) numbers, though he overcame those figures by generating weak contact. No starter posted a better infield fly rate (14 percent) or a lower batting average on balls in play (.224) over that two-year span than Estrada, who’s third in the majors this season in the infield pop-up department (14.5 percent). However, Estrada’s BABIP allowed has skyrocketed to .312 – an increase that has come even though he has continued to do a nice job suppressing strong contact. Estrada’s expected weighted on-base average against is just .303, a far cry from his actual wOBA surrendered (.349, via Statcast and Baseball Savant).
There is some misfortune at play with respect to Estrada’s bloated ERA, then, and it’s also worth noting that his 9.21 K/9, 23.3 strikeout percentage and 11.4 percent are all above average relative to his career numbers. While Estrada’s walk (3.87 BB/9) and grounder (30 percent) rates continue to underwhelm, he remains a capable starter – one who’d generate a decent amount of interest in free agency. Although, if both the Jays and Estrada have it their way, potential suitors among the league’s other 29 teams may not even get the opportunity to bid on him.
East News & Rumors: Sabathia, Stanton, Marlins, Nats
Yankees left-hander C.C. Sabathia‘s right knee was in so much pain during an unsuccessful Aug. 8 start against the Blue Jays that the 37-year-old feared he wouldn’t take the ball again, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. “I know that he was pretty emotional that night, because I think he thought he was probably headed for surgery,” manager Joe Girardi said. A clean MRI and a painkilling injection enabled Sabathia to avoid surgery, though, and he returned from the 10-day disabled list Saturday to throw six innings of two-earned run ball in an upset win over Chris Sale and the Red Sox. Sabathia is due to become a free agent in the offseason, when he’ll have to decide whether to pursue another deal or call it a career. His performance this year would certainly warrant a contract – the former ace has ridden a 50 percent ground-ball rate to a 3.99 ERA over 108 1/3 innings.
More from the East Coast:
- Home run-hitting machine Giancarlo Stanton is among the game’s absolute best players at the moment, but the Marlins right fielder’s contract and injury history combine to make him a very tough sell around the majors, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Stanton, who’s due $295MM from 2018-28 and has both full no-trade rights and a 2020 opt-out clause, went through revocable trade waivers unclaimed earlier this month. The executives Sherman spoke with aren’t surprised. “This is the problem if you make emotional decisions in the moment. Stanton is playing great now, but three months ago you would have thought he was at least a $100 million liability and three months from now you might feel the same,” one exec said of Stanton, who will create a dilemma for the Marlins’ new ownership group when it takes the reins. On one hand, Stanton’s contract is the biggest contributor to the franchise’s financial woes – the Marlins will lose $70MM-plus this year, per Sherman – so trading him would benefit Derek Jeter & Co. from a payroll standpoint. On the other, Stanton’s contract means Miami likely wouldn’t get the type of return for him that you’d expect for someone of his immense ability and star power. That means trading the 27-year-old would probably send the wrong message to a fan base that outgoing owner Jeffrey Loria has alienated over the years.
- Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo is an early front-runner to become the Marlins’ general manager once the Jeter group assumes control of the franchise, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Denbo has worked in various capacities with the Yankees since the 1990s, the decade in which Jeter’s professional career began, and was a mentor to the the now-retired shortstop during his Hall of Fame-caliber playing days. The two remain “close,” Feinsand notes.
- Injuries have ravaged the Nationals’ outfield throughout the season, but here’s some positive news for the first-place club: Left fielder Jayson Werth is “feeling good” and set to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Monday, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Werth has had a tough road back since he landed on the disabled list June 5 with a fractured left foot and a bone bruise. The 38-year-old free agent-to-be was in the midst of a nice season prior to the injury, as he slashed .262/.367/.446 with eight home runs over 196 plate appearances.
Yankees Notes: Chapman, Estrada, Tanaka
Not even a full season into signing a five-year, $86MM contract – a record deal for a reliever – Aroldis Chapman is out as the Yankees’ closer, manager Joe Girardi announced Saturday, per Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link). The move isn’t necessarily permanent, however, but a measure to “try and get him right,” said Girardi, who revealed that Chapman reacted well to the news. One of the most dominant relievers of all-time, the 29-year-old flamethower hasn’t been himself this season, as his pedestrian ERA (4.29), plummeting strikeout percentage and falling swinging-strike rate indicate. Chapman’s also amid arguably the worst stretch of his illustrious career, one in which he has yielded two earned runs in three straight appearances for the first time, and made a couple mental errors in the Yankees’ loss to the Red Sox on Friday. Chapman was responsible for a double steal when he neglected to keep tabs on the Red Sox’s runners on first and second base, and he then failed to back up home plate on a two-run single by Jackie Bradley Jr. Those slip-ups led to an animated mound visit from Girardi, who figures to turn to David Robertson and Dellin Betances as his ninth-inning choices while Chapman attempts to overcome his struggles in a different role. (Follow @CloserNews, MLBTR’s sister Twitter site, for more on the Yankees’ late-game configuration and news about all ninth-inning situations around the majors.)
A bit more on the Yankees, who will try to avoid falling six games behind Chris Sale-led Boston for the AL East lead on Saturday:
- It was either the Yankees or the Orioles who claimed right-hander Marco Estrada off waivers from the division-rival Blue Jays earlier this week, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Regardless, Estrada isn’t going anywhere because the Jays were unable to agree to a trade with the claiming team within the 48-hour window.
- Estrada would’ve been a quality reinforcement for the Yankees’ rotation (or Baltimore’s), but the Bombers will get some in-house help on that front. Masahiro Tanaka, on the disabled list since last Saturday with shoulder inflammation, is set to make his return Tuesday against Detroit, Girardi informed reporters (Twitter link via Boland). Rotation mate C.C. Sabathia will come off the 10-day DL and start in Boston tonight. Friday’s starter, rookie Jordan Montgomery, is headed back to Triple-A to make room for Sabathia, the team announced.
Twins Notes: Garver, Colon, Enns, Ervin, Rosario
In the wake of Robbie Grossman‘s fractured thumb, the Twins are turning to one of their top organizational prospects. Catcher Mitch Garver, who ranked ninth on Fangraphs’ summer edition of the team’s top prospects, is being called up to the Majors, the club announced. In addition to his work behind the plate, the 26-year-old Garver has played 14 games in left field this season, so he can serve as a third catcher as well as a spare outfielder or first baseman. Garver’s bat also could be a nice addition to the team’s bench. In 372 Triple-A plate appearances, Garver has slashed .291/.387/.541 with 17 homers and 29 doubles.
A few more notes out of the Twin Cities…
- Right-hander Bartolo Colon has enjoyed some success with the Twins after a terrible start to the season in Atlanta, and he tells John Shipley of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he’s open to playing beyond the 2017 season. There was some brief talk of retirement for Colon, but the 44-year-old has turned in a solid 4.21 ERA in 36 1/3 innings with the Twins (albeit with more concerning peripheral metrics). Colon also tells Shipley that a phone call from former Angels teammate Ervin Santana may have been the tipping point in Colon signing with the Twins. The Mets were also pursuing a reunion with Colon, but the veteran righty said some urging from Santana, the Twins superior place in the standings and the opportunity to serve as a mentor for a number of young Twins pitchers all appealed to him. “…I thought it’s not only an opportunity for me to pitch, but an opportunity to teach other young players how to pitch and how to be big-leaguers,” said Colon.
- The Twins placed lefty Dietrich Enns, who was only just acquired from the Yankees as part of the Jaime Garcia swap, on the 10-day disabled list with a shoulder strain yesterday. Enns missed more than two months of the season with a shoulder issue as a member of the Yankees’ Triple-A club, and Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press suggests that the Twins could potentially seek additional compensation from the Yankees if Enns’ shoulder issue proves to be serious.
- The Astros and Mariners have both showed plenty of interest in right-hander Ervin Santana this summer, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports in his latest podcast (audio link, Twins talk starts up around the 45:00 mark). However, Minnesota has never shown any real willingness to deal him, and there’s no reason to expect that they’d change that mentality now with a Wild Card spot still in the crosshairs.
- Minnesota GM Thad Levine joins Wolfson to discuss several Twins topics ranging from outplaying their run differential, to the performance of young players to the fine line between making short-term and long-term moves this time of year. Of surging outfielder Eddie Rosario, Levine notes that he and Twins chief baseball office Derek Falvey received quite a few inquiries from other clubs regarding Rosario. Many teams wanted to gauge whether the new front office duo valued Rosario (and others, though Levine doesn’t get into specific names) as highly as their predecessors. “We made it clear to them that we view this guy as part of the core, part of the future of this franchise,” said Levine of Rosario. The 25-year-old Rosario is hitting .297/.337/.500 with 16 homers, 25 doubles and a pair of triples this season.
Injury Notes: Tanaka, Angels, Diekman, Wahl, Lugo, Nats
Masahiro Tanaka is on the disabled list due to some inflammation in his shoulder, but he could be back with the Yankees as soon as next week, per WFAN’s Sweeny Murti (Twitter link). Murti also notes that lefty CC Sabathia is slated to come off the DL on Saturday. Tanaka will throw a bullpen session tomorrow, and if that goes well, he’ll return to the rotation next week against the Tigers. Demonstrating that this is a minor issue will be key for Tanaka and the Yankees; Tanaka has pitched quite well over his past nine starts and been solid dating back to late May, perhaps positioning him to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract. And the Yankees, of course, are currently in possession of an AL Wild Card spot and are also 4.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East.
A few more injury updates of note from around the league…
- The Angels have received some good news on the rotation front, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Left-hander Andrew Heaney will return to the mound on Friday in Baltimore — his first big league appearance in roughly 16 months. Heaney underwent Tommy John surgery last year — one of many blows to what had looked on paper to be a promising Angels pitching staff. Now 26 years of age, Heaney turned in 105 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball with 6.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in his first season with the Halos back in 2015. A healthy Heaney would be a boost to a surging Angels club that now finds itself in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. Fletcher also tweeted yesterday that, per manager Mike Scioscia, right-hander Garrett Richards will face hitters later this week, though it’s not yet clear when Richards could return to a big league mound.
- Left-hander Jake Diekman is getting closer to returning to the Rangers‘ bullpen. Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets that Diekman will begin a rehab assignment with the Rangers’ Double-A affiliate on Thursday, during which he’s slated to throw 15 pitches. The 30-year-old southpaw was a key piece of the Texas bullpen in 2015-16 after coming over from the Phillies alongside Cole Hamels, but he’s yet to pitch this season due to a trio of surgeries he’s undergone to combat ulcerative colitis.
- The Athletics announced yesterday that right-hander Bobby Wahl‘s season is over after he underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. TOS surgery has become increasingly popular in recent seasons, though the success rate on it doesn’t appear to be as high as other common surgeries for pitchers. The 25-year-old Wahl posted terrific numbers in Double-A and Triple-A last season, and he made his big league debut with Oakland earlier in 2017. In 7 2/3 frames, he allowed four runs on eight hits and four walks with eight strikeouts.
- The Mets placed right-hander Seth Lugo on the 10-day DL yesterday with an impingement in his right shoulder, and Lugo emphasized today that he doesn’t feel surgery is required for either his previously injured elbow or his shoulder, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes. Lugo is hopeful of missing just one or two starts with his current issue. “The doctors said this is an inoperable situation,” said Lugo. “…Surgery’s not even a though.” Lugo missed the first two months of the season after being diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.
- Nationals manager Dusty Baker gave some quick updates on a number of ailing players, writes Byron Kerr of MASNsports.com. Outfielder Jayson Werth is still going through a running program and isn’t yet ready for a rehab assignment, per Baker. Werth will need to play consecutive nine-inning games before being activated. Baker also revealed that while he initially thought right-hander Ryan Madson was dealing with a blister issue on his finger, it appears that is not the case. Madson has “something in his finger” that the Nats are currently analyzing. Bryce Harper, meanwhile, is traveling with the team as he gets treatment on his injured left knee.
East Notes: Yankees, Mets, Nava, Orioles, De Leon
Both the Yankees and Mets acted rationally with their approaches in trades this summer, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yankees showed a willingness to deal from the middle range of their considerable prospect depth to avoid luxury taxation, as they did with the Jaime Garcia trade and reportedly tried to do in their pursuits of Jay Bruce and Neil Walker. Sherman writes that the Yankees asked the Mets to eat $2.7MM of the remaining $3.7MM on Bruce’s contract in exchange for two prospects. The Mets clearly didn’t deem the difference between that pair and Ryder Ryan (whom they acquired from the Indians for Bruce) to be sizable enough to eat that cash. While many Mets fans chastise the organization for not spending, Sherman points out that the Mets have taken on salary (Bruce, Addison Reed, Yoenis Cespedes) in recent years. They’ve also already begun spending for 2018, Sherman adds, pointing to the acquisition of AJ Ramos. In that sense, saving money in trades to better stock the team’s offseason war chest could have relatively immediate impact on the team’s fortunes. Of course, it remains to be seen how their offseason plays out.
A bit more from the game’s Eastern divisions…
- The Phillies announced tonight that outfielder Daniel Nava has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a lower back strain. The veteran Nava’s injury is especially noteworthy given the fact that he seemed a logical August trade candidate for the Phils. The 33-year-old switch-hitter hasn’t done much against left-handed pitching this year — he’s always been weaker as a right-handed bat — but he’s clubbed righty pitching at a .347/.427.492 clip through 143 PAs and could’ve been a solid bench addition for a contender. There’s still time for Nava to get back and demonstrate his health to interested parties, but his back injury clearly diminishes the chances of a trade.
- Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes that Orioles GM Dan Duquette has a long history of making August deals — six in the past five years — but opines that there’s not much worth pursuing for the O’s this summer. Baltimore’s greatest need is starting pitching, but the remaining available arms are mostly fringe fifth starters that don’t represent a clear upgrade over the Orioles’ current options. Nonetheless, Connolly states that he does find it likely that Duquette and his staff make some kind of move, noting that the Orioles have “always had a little interest in” Derek Holland and are quite familiar with Miguel Gonzalez — both currently pitching for the rebuilding White Sox. I’d agree with Connolly that neither seems to represent an upgrade, though the O’s could probably acquire either pitcher primarily in exchange for salary relief.
- Rays right-hander Jose De Leon is on the minor league disabled list for the third time this season, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. De Leon, who has previously dealt with forearm/flexor issues, now has tendinitis in his right elbow, per Topkin. It’s been a frustrating first season with the Rays organization for De Leon — a highly touted pitching prospect that was acquired in a straight-up swap that sent Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers. De Leon has appeared in just one big league game with the Rays and has only 38 1/3 minor league innings under his belt, though he’s logged a 3.05 ERA with 44-to-16 K/BB ratio in the minors when healthy.
2017 Opt-Out Clause Update
The last look we took at the handful of players with opt-out clauses following the 2017 season was more than a month ago, and a few of their situations may have changed since that early July check-in. Here’s an update on this group of potential free agents…
[Related: MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition]
Trending Up
- Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): There have been plenty of suggestions that there’s no way Upton will walk away from that contract, but we’re not really sold on that notion. Upton was terrible in his first three months with the Tigers but is hitting .274/.352/.542 (137 wRC+) with 45 homers dating back to July 1, 2016. Over the past calendar year, he’s hitting .281/.366/.571 (148 wRC+) with 40 homers in 631 PAs. He’s been seven to nine runs above average in left field, per UZR and DRS, as well. Upton will play next year at the age of 30 and needs only to feel he can top Hanley Ramirez‘s guarantee to opt out. Beyond that, he may simply like the idea of moving to a team that isn’t openly trying to pare back its payroll and retool for the future.
- Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s home-run woes are an unequivocally troubling issue, but his numbers since the summer began are encouraging. Since May 26, Tanaka has a 3.99 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate — good for a 3.12 xFIP and a 3.17 SIERA. The numbers are even better if you look at his past nine starts (3.00 ERA, 65 K, 12 BB, 57 innings). The health concerns are well known. Tanaka had a partial UCL tear in his rookie season but was able to avoid Tommy John, and he’s currently on the DL with what is reportedly some minor shoulder fatigue. The righty has averaged 2.2 HR/9 this year, but he’s also going to be just 29 years old next year. An opt-out looked highly unlikely two months ago but now looks entirely plausible, as long as this latest DL trip proves minor.
- Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Since last check, Castillo has absolutely raked. He’s batted .308/.345/.500 with four homers and three doubles in his past 84 PAs, and his overall batting line it up to .283/.319/.457 (103 wRC+). Castillo’s framing marks have improved from some of the worst in the league to roughly average (per Baseball Prospectus), and he’s halted an incredible 46 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2017. He should be able to top a one-year, $7MM deal with ease this winter.
Trending Down
- Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Since our last check, Holland has reminded everyone that he is indeed mortal. In his past 11 2/3 frames, he’s coughed up eight runs on a dozen hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. Six of those runs have come in his past two outings, but as long as that proves to be a blip on the radar, Holland still seems a safe bet to opt out. If he significantly fades in his first year back from Tommy John or lands on the disabled list, though, there’s at least a chance that he takes the option. Assuming he remains healthy, though, Holland will likely look to top Mark Melancon‘s four-year, $62MM deal this winter.
- Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): It’s been almost a month since Cueto last set foot on a Major League mound, as he’s been sidelined with a forearm issue that has significantly clouded his chances of opting out. Reports earlier in the summer suggested that a slow start wasn’t going to deter Cueto from opting out, but a month-long injury scare and an ERA in the upper-4.00s certainly might. Cueto, 32 in February, has a 4.59 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and the second worst ground-ball rate of his career (39.2 percent). FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at 4.41 or worse.
Unchanged Since Last Check
- Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Wieters wasn’t hitting in early July, and he’s hitting even less now. His defensive reputation limited him to a two-year, $21MM deal with a player option after year one on the 2016-17 open market, and that was coming off a much better offensive season. Wieters seems extremely likely to take the $10.5MM in 2018.
- Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): Kennedy’s results have improved slightly since the last opt-out update, but it’s hardly enough to make it likely that he’ll opt out of that significant guarantee. Through 120 innings in 2017, Kennedy has averaged 1.65 HR/9, tying a career-worst mark, while both his strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong direction. He’s also missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’ll turn 33 this December.
- Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): No change here. Chen has scarcely been able to pitch in 2017 due to a reported partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He’s reportedly still aiming for a late comeback, but that won’t be enough to give him the earning power to top his remaining guarantee.