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Mets To Interview Craig Counsell For Managerial Vacancy

By | at October 25, 2023 10:30am CDT

The Mets have received permission from the Brewers to interview Craig Counsell, reports Andy Martino of SNY, and will interview him soon.

Counsell, 53, has been the manager of the Brewers since 2015 but has been a speculative fit for the Mets for a while now. David Stearns had been general manager/president of baseball operations in Milwaukee for roughly the same period of time that Counsell was manager and recently made the move to the Mets. Upon joining his new club, he almost immediately fired Buck Showalter and opened the manager position in Queens.

Given the longstanding relationship between Stearns and Counsell, many made the logical conclusion that Stearns would bring Counsell to the Mets with him. But that assumed reunion has been on hold recently, as Counsell is still technically the manager of the Brewers. It was previously reported that his contract runs through the end of October, which seemed like it was going to push any interviews with the Mets or other clubs until November, though it now appears the Brewers will let him talk to the Mets about a week early.

The Brewers have generally been successful during the Stearns-Counsell period, making the playoffs in five of the past six seasons despite not running up huge payrolls. That has naturally led to interest from other clubs, wondering what they could do with more resources. Stearns is already aboard with the Mets but it’s not a guarantee Counsell will follow him. As Martino adds, Counsell is expected to pursue other openings just as the Mets are expected to consider other candidates.

The Guardians, Angels and Padres also have managerial vacancies and would presumably have some level of interest in Counsell. It’s been reported that Dusty Baker may step away from managing as well, which would add the Astros to that list. It also can’t really be ruled out that Counsell stays with the Brewers. While he may be tempted by a bigger market and a presumably larger salary, he grew up in Wisconsin and has long-standing ties to the region. His father worked for the Brewers and Craig spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

About a week ago, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Brewers felt he would stay in Milwaukee if he was paid “what he believes is fair.” He reportedly made $3.5MM in 2023, though it’s unknown what level of compensation he would consider a reasonable bump. Given the free-spending ways of the Mets, they would likely be able to offer him a higher salary than the Brewers, though it’s unknown whether that would be enough to pry Counsell away from the club where he has those aforementioned connections.

Some might interpret the Brewers giving him permission to talk to the Mets as a sign they aren’t committed to Counsell, though another explanation would just be about timing. Teams generally prefer to have a manager in place when the offseason begins and they start talking to potential free agents. Therefore the Brewers could have it in their best interest to have Counsell start assessing his options so that they can get clarity on whether he may come back or if they themselves need to start interviewing new candidates.

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Giants Hire Bob Melvin As Manager

By | at October 25, 2023 9:05am CDT

October 25: The Giants have made it official, announcing today that Bob Melvin is now their manager.

October 24: The Giants “are poised to announce” that Bob Melvin has been hired as the team’s new manager, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports.  It isn’t known when the official announcement could be made, though the league prefers that teams save major news for between postseason rounds, so the Giants may wait until for the two days between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series on Friday.

Between the late-season firing of Gabe Kapler as manager and the reports of discord between Melvin and Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, there has been plenty of speculation over the last month that Melvin might find himself on the move from San Diego to San Francisco.  Padres chairman Peter Seidler’s stated preference was that both Melvin and Preller remain with the organization in 2024, and Preller even said in a post-season wrapup press conference that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward.”

However, Melvin remained on the Giants’ radar, and a parting between Melvin and the Padres seemed inevitable once San Diego granted Melvin permission to interview with the Giants this past weekend.  As Baggarly reports, that interview took place on Monday, and involved several members of San Francisco’s ownership group and baseball operations staff, not to mention franchise icon Buster Posey.  It seems as though the interview was enough to confirm Melvin’s status as the favorite for the job, and the veteran skipper will now get a new job as an early birthday present, as he turns 62 on Saturday.

Melvin’s resume includes three Manager of the Year Awards, eight postseason appearances, and a 1517-1425 record over 20 seasons with the Padres, Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Mariners.  The hiring in San Francisco is also something of a homecoming for the Palo Alto native, and a continuation of Melvin’s linkage of the Bay Area and his baseball career.  Melvin played with the Giants for three of his 10 seasons as a big league catcher, and had an 11-year stint managing the A’s from 2011-21.

As it happens, this is the second time in almost exactly two years that Melvin take a new managerial job while leaving another job with one year remaining on his contract.  The A’s had contractual control over Melvin for the 2022 season but chose to let him walk to the Padres without compensation, with reports stating that Melvin’s $4MM salary was seen as onerous for an Oakland club that was about to embark on a major teardown.  It is also fair to assume that the Athletics front office was open to letting Melvin make a graceful exit to a better situation, rather than keep him as manager for at least one season of what looks like it will be a lengthy rebuild process.

This past weekend’s reports from Baggarly and Dennis Lin suggest that Melvin’s current salary (also $4MM for 2024, the last year of his Padres contract) might have been a factor in San Diego’s decision, as the organization is planning to reduce expenditures in a number of different areas.  With a mounting debt that could be in conflict with MLB regulations and some broadcasting uncertainty due to the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings, the Padres look to be cutting back on the high-spending ways, including a reported reduction in player payroll to around $200MM for next season.

Finances aside, the simpler answer is probably just that the Giants’ interest allowed for the Padres to part ways with Melvin in relatively smooth fashion, without the awkwardness of a firing.  Preller has already fired three different managers (Bud Black, Andy Green, Jayce Tingler) during his nine-plus years in charge of San Diego’s front office, and three other men (Dave Roberts, Pat Murphy, Rod Barajas) have also worked as interim managers.  Of course, whether it was a firing or a “parting of the ways,” the bottom line is that the Padres have had another manager come and go while Preller remains.

Lin and Ken Rosenthal examined how the Preller/Melvin relationship soured in a piece for The Athletic last month, and the criticisms of Preller’s management style also predated Melvin’s arrival in San Diego.  In fact, Melvin’s hiring was seen as a stabilizing element after the clubhouse turmoil that marked the end of Tingler’s managerial stint, yet it seems as though the ship was only steadied through the success of the 2022 season.  This year, the Padres underachieved despite their massive payroll, with a very poor record in one-run (9-23) and extra-inning (2-12) games undermining a team that, by all other statistical measurements, should’ve won a lot more than 82 games.

With even more pressure on Preller to get the Friars on track, the next managerial hire will be one of the most crucial decisions of his tenure.  Two internal candidates (Mike Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty) have already emerged as leading contenders for the job, and it might be that the Padres wanted to start lining up some candidates before officially green-lighting Melvin’s interview with San Francisco.  San Diego will surely interview some other people out of due diligence, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the job does end up going to either first-time manager Flaherty, or former Cardinals skipper Shildt.

As for Melvin, he’ll now take over another team in need of a culture change.  After winning 107 games in 2021, the Giants are 159-163 over the last two seasons, and Kapler’s hands-off managerial style was starting to seem more like a detriment than a plus.  Several Giants players, either on or off the record, felt the club was somewhat directionless, with Logan Webb outright stating he felt “we have to make some big changes in here to create that winning culture.”

These criticisms extended not only to Kapler but to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, whose contract is believed to run only through the end of the 2024 season.  As such, Zaidi is also certainly feeling the pressure to build a contending roster, and the Giants are expected to be aggressive shoppers this winter after missing out on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa as a big-ticket addition last offseason.  Faced with what might be a make-or-break scenario, it probably isn’t surprising that Zaidi has turned to a familiar face as manager — Zaidi previously worked as the Athletics’ assistant GM during Melvin’s tenure in Oakland.

The terms of Melvin’s contract aren’t yet known, though Baggarly suggests it could be a relatively short-term deal, should Melvin view the San Francisco job “as a fitting place to round out” his career.  There has been some buzz about possible coaching changes coming to the Giants’ staff, though Baggarly suggests that the majority of San Francisco’s 13-person staff could be retained.  That perhaps puts a different spin on the Giants’ managerial search, as the focus on internal candidates and others with past Giants ties (i.e. Stephen Vogt) might have been a way of gauging how any of these candidates might have been willing to mesh with Melvin, if he was Zaidi’s preferred choice all along.

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Padres Permit Bob Melvin To Interview For Giants’ Managerial Position

By | at October 22, 2023 11:04pm CDT

Padres manager Bob Melvin has been given permission by the team to interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Andrew Baggarly.  “Melvin has emerged as the favorite in San Francisco, with league sources indicating that he received assurances he would be a top candidate before he agreed to participate in the interview process,” Lin and Baggarly write.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

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Marlins, Kim Ng Part Ways

By | at October 16, 2023 11:00pm CDT

11:25 AM: According to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Marlins planned to hire a president of baseball operations this offseason. The new president would have worked above Kim Ng as the team’s top baseball executive. It was this plan of action that led Ng to turn down her side of her mutual option with the Marlins for 2024.

9:05 AM: The Marlins and general manager Kim Ng have parted ways, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It was reported about a month ago that her contract was set to expire after 2023 and it seems that a new deal will not be worked out to keep the relationship going. The club’s chairman Bruce Sherman released a statement on the matter, as relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Herald. It seems the two sides had a mutual option for 2024, with the club exercising their end but Ng rejecting hers.

“We thank Kim for her contributions during her time with our organization and wish her and her family well,” the statement reads. “We will immediately begin a thorough and extensive search for new leadership as we plan to continue to invest in the Marlins organization both on and off the field. We are committed to our fans and the South Florida community and look to build off the momentum of the great progress of this year.” Barry Jackson of the Herald relays that director of player development Brian Chattin will serve as interim general manager during that search.

The departing GM provided a statement to Tyler Kepner of The Athletic: “Last week, Bruce (Sherman) and I discussed his plan to reshape the Baseball Operations department. In our discussions, it became apparent that we were not completely aligned on what that should look like and I felt it best to step away. I wish to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation to the Marlins family and its fans for my time in South Florida. This year was a great step forward for the organization, and I will miss working with Skip and his coaches as well as all of the dedicated staff in baseball operations and throughout the front office. They are a very talented group and I wish them great success in the future.”

Ng, now 54, was hired to be the general manager of the Marlins in November of 2020, which was trailblazing on multiple fronts. Ng was the first woman to be a general manager for a men’s team in any of the four major North American sports and the first Asian-American GM in the history of Major League Baseball.

Since that time, the fortunes of the club have been gradually trending upwards. Though they made the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 season, the two full seasons prior to that saw them win 63 games in 2018 and then just 57 in 2019. The two seasons after Ng’s hiring saw them win 67 games in 2021 and then 69 contests last year. Here in 2023, they hired Skip Schumaker to take over as manager and were able to get all the way up to 84 victories, a strong enough season that they were able to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2003.

The club has had an admirable supply of starting pitching during recent years, with their rotation featuring the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López, Trevor Rogers and Eury Pérez at various times. Those pitchers were all acquired prior to Ng joining the club, but she added to that group by acquiring Jesús Luzardo from the A’s in 2021, sending impending free agent Starling Marte the other way. The surplus of starting pitching was then used to upgrade the lineup, with López traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez, who flirted with .400 for much of 2023 campaign. At this year’s deadline, the club added some more offense by acquiring Josh Bell and Jake Burger, both of whom finished strong as part of Miami’s playoff push.

Every baseball decision maker has their misses and that’s certainly true of Ng. The Avisaíl García deal looks like a big misstep at the moment and the Jacob Stallings deal hasn’t worked out so far. But on the whole, the results have been positive with Ng at the helm. They just had their best season in quite some time and did so with very little margin for error, financially speaking. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the player payroll has been one of the lowest in the league, with their Opening Day outlay coming in 28th, 26th and then 23rd in her three seasons.

The club clearly felt things were going well, since they triggered their end of the mutual option. It’s possible the two sides discussed an extension, but there hasn’t been much public information about that. It’s perhaps worth noting that there have been some changes in the suit-and-tie levels of the Marlins organization in recent years. The club was purchased by a group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter in late 2017. Jeter served as the club’s CEO until early 2022, departing at that time while stating that “the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead.” It was reported after that announcement that a change in spending plans is what caused Jeter to walk away, though others also suggested the relationship between Sherman and Jeter soured for reasons beyond just the financials.

In her statement, Ng also spoke of not being aligned with Sherman in their discussions, much like Jeter. The exact nature of their disagreement isn’t known, but the result is that she won’t be back with the club and will now be free to pursue other opportunities.

It’s unknown if she wants to immediately jump into another job, but there are some current openings. The Red Sox fired Chaim Bloom and have been looking to hire a general manager in recent weeks. Billy Eppler walked away from the general manager position of the Mets recently, though that would be a different situation with David Stearns hired to be that club’s president of baseball operations. The job with the Mets would have far more financial freedom than Ng had in Miami but it’s unclear if she would want to be second-in-command after a successful run as a club’s top baseball decision maker. It’s possible that more gigs will open up if any other clubs decide to part ways with their front office people.

Her plans will surely become more clear in the weeks to come but it’s fair to expect that she will draw interest. The Marlins, meanwhile, will look for a new head of their baseball operations department. Whoever steps into that role will seemingly have to align their vision with Sherman’s and likely work with a limited budget, but there would certainly be some appeal in taking over a club that is just coming off a postseason appearance and in decent shape to compete again next year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Brandon Woodruff Expected To Miss Most Of 2024 After Shoulder Surgery

By | at October 13, 2023 11:27pm CDT

The Brewers announced to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery today to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. He is expected to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season.

Woodruff, 30, has been an excellent part of the Milwaukee rotation for many years now, but the shoulder issues hounded him throughout 2023. He first landed on the injured list in April after just two starts, diagnosed with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder. He returned in August and made nine more starts down the stretch but was left off the club’s playoff roster with another shoulder issue. Now it seems he’ll have to go under the knife, which puts his 2024 season in jeopardy.

The news is obviously bad for the Brewers, given that Woodruff has been such a valuable part of the club. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His tally of 10.3 wins above replacement from 2020 to 2022, via FanGraphs, was among the top 10 among all pitchers in baseball. Even with the shoulder injuries this year, he still managed an ERA of 2.28 in his 11 outings.

Subtracting that kind of performance from their rotation would be an unwelcome development at any time, but it’s especially awkward right now. Woodruff is about to enter his final season of arbitration control, set for a raise on the $10.8MM salary he had in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for $11.6MM in 2024, a modest bump after his diminished workload in the past year.

As a lower-spending team, the Brewers have occasionally decided to trade notable players as their arbitration salaries increased, perhaps most infamously the Josh Hader deal from 2022. This winter has long been seen as a point where they might have to consider a similar move, with Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames all set to make eight-figure deals in their respective final arbitration years. It had been argued that perhaps the club could consider trading one of Burnes or Woodruff to bolster another part of the roster while leaving the rotation still in relatively decent shape, saving some money in the process.

With Woodruff now set for such an extended absence, such a plan becomes less feasible and also gives the Brewers a difficult choice of whether or not to tender Woodruff a contract at all. An eight-figure deal for a pitcher who might miss the entire season wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources, especially for a club that operates without a lot of financial wiggle room. It would be possible to make him a qualifying offer after 2024, but that would be contingent him getting healthy enough to justify such an overture, meaning there would be a lot of risk in simply signing him for one year and hoping for the best. But letting an incredibly talented pitcher like Woodruff depart for nothing isn’t appealing either.

Perhaps he and the club could work out some kind of multi-year deal that would allow him to rehab the injury in 2024 and stay in Milwaukee beyond that. Players set for significant absences such as this often find two-year deals, with the signing team aware that they are unlikely to get much value in the first season. But Woodruff would be under no obligation to sign such a deal with the Brewers. If they weren’t willing to offer him a deal he felt was fair, he could wait and see if they non-tender him, which would make him a free agent and allow him to pursue such deals with any club.

The non-tender deadline isn’t until November 17, meaning he and the club have over a month to work something out on the contract side of things. But circling back to the on-field picture, it subtracts a key piece of the 2024 rotation. Without Woodruff, the group still figures to have Burnes at the front, followed by Freddy Peralta, but things get murky after that. Wade Miley is likely to wind up a free agent since mutual options are rarely triggered by both sides. That leaves Adrian Houser, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Robert Gasser and Caleb Boushley as some of the potential rotation members. Aaron Ashby could be in the mix as well but missed all of 2023 due to his own shoulder injury.

It’s possible the club finds an acceptable rotation in there but there’s no doubt it would be better with a healthy Woodruff. Even in the hypothetical scenario where Woodruff or Burnes were on the trading block, that would have at least allowed the club to address a different part of the team, making it a rough blow no matter how you look at it. The Brewers just won the Central division, making the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, but it might not be as easy next year. The Cubs, Pirates and Reds all showed signs that they are ready to emerge from their respective rebuilds and the Cardinals figure to be aggressive in bouncing back from a lost season.

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Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

By | at October 12, 2023 10:59pm CDT

The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

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Kyle Wright To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Will Miss 2024 Season

By | at October 7, 2023 10:59pm CDT

Kyle Wright has battled shoulder problems all season, resulting in the Braves placing the righty on the 60-day injured list just prior to the start of their playoff run.  Wright will miss all of the postseason, and unfortunately now all of the 2024 season as well, since manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that Wright will undergo surgery to correct the problem.

Wright’s shoulder injuries started in Spring Training and resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL.  He made five starts before being forced back to the IL for ended up being more than a four-month layoff.  Returning to the Braves’ rotation in September, Wright pitched in four games — two as a starter, then two more as a reliever.  With the playoffs looming, Wright was being positioned for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen during the postseason, which he was happy to do in order to help the team win.  However, an MRI on Friday revealed more shoulder damage, and surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all.

The injury will essentially cost Wright two years of his career, as he’ll wrap his 2023 campaign with only 31 innings pitched.  It’s a brutal outcome for the 28-year-old, especially after it looked like he had finally established himself as a viable big league starter in 2022.

The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft, Wright took a quick route to the big leagues and made his MLB debut in September 2018.  Through the 2018-21 seasons, Wright only pitched 70 Major League innings over 21 appearances (14 of them starts), posting a 6.56 ERA and simply not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation or even on the active roster.  The silver lining was a championship ring in 2021, as though he made only two appearances in the regular season, he landed a spot on the World Series roster and delivered a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief work.

This set the stage for Wright’s breakout.  He posted a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings in 2022, leading the majors in wins with a 21-5 record.  Though he allowed a lot of hard contact and his walk and strikeout rates were only slightly above the league average, Wright’s 3.48 SIERA wasn’t much higher than his real-world ERA, and his 55.6% grounder rate only got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .284 BABIP.

Wright’s 2023 numbers were basically a wash, as he had a 6.97 ERA over his 31 frames.  With this recent performance weighing more heavily than his 2022 season, Wright was projected to earn $1.4MM in 2024, his first year of arbitration eligibility.  Missing the 2024 season entirely would mean that Wright’s 2025 salary will either match or be fractionally beyond that $1.4MM figure, so even if he returns healthy and productive in 2025, he’d get a bump up to maybe something in the $4MM range for 2026.

In short, the shoulder injury has cost Wright millions of dollars, as he would’ve locked in some increasingly large salaries through his arb years if he’d kept pitching anything like his 2022 self.  Given the Braves’ penchant for extending their in-house players, a solid 2023 season might’ve been enough evidence to convince the front office to lock in a multi-year agreement with Wright, giving him an even bigger payday.

The one possible upside to these limited salaries is that Wright is still making so relatively little that the Braves will still tender him a contract, allowing Wright to rehab and then hopefully bounce back in good form by Opening Day 2025.  But obviously, losing Wright for a year has an impact on the Braves’ long-term pitching plans as well.

Spencer Strider is locked up on an extension through at least the 2028 season, making him the cornerstone of Atlanta’s rotation for the rest of the decade.  Beyond Strider, Max Fried is a free agent after the 2024 season, and 39-year-old Charlie Morton could potentially retire after this season.  Bryce Elder pitched generally well this year, though his numbers regressed significantly after a great first three months.  Rookies Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and AJ Smith-Shawver all made their big league debuts in 2023, but Smith-Shawver is the only one of the group who pitched decently well.  Michael Soroka didn’t pitch particularly well over 32 1/3 innings in his comeback season and was shut down in September due to forearm inflammation.  As for other injured starters, Kolby Allard only threw 12 1/3 innings due to oblique and shoulder nerve inflammation,and Huascar Ynoa missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s a lot of depth but not necessarily a lot of proven quality, though getting by with a so-so-rotation might be okay for a Braves team with such a spectacular offense.  Going into 2024, Strider, Fried, and Elder seemingly have rotation spots locked, and if Morton returns, that’s still a solid top four.  Top prospect Hurston Waldrep might also be on the roster as early as Opening Day, so it’s possible Wright might’ve had a hard time getting back into the rotation (or even beating out the many other arms for the unofficial sixth starter job) even if he’d avoided surgery.  Many things could still shake out by the time Wright is ready in 2025, particularly if Fried did leave and if Morton did decide to finally hang up his glove.

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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024

By and | at October 6, 2023 10:58pm CDT

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (7)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (13)

Brewers (12)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (9)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (13)

Giants (6)

Guardians (10)

Marlins (13)

Mariners (8)

Mets (17)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (16)

Padres (6)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (10)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (5)

Reds (10)

Rockies (7)

Royals (8)

Tigers (8)

Twins (9)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (17)

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Sandy Alcantara Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By | at October 6, 2023 10:57pm CDT

Marlins star Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery, he announced on Instagram. The procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister, occurred this morning. He’ll miss the entire 2024 season.

“With a heavy heart, I want to let everyone know I had Tommy John surgery today and will miss next season,” the 2022 NL Cy Young winner wrote as part of a statement. “I am most saddened for the great Marlins fans, who were so supportive of me and the team this year. The drive to the playoffs was thrilling for all of us.”

While the Marlins hadn’t indicated that surgery was on the table, it’s not an especially surprising development. Alcantara’s season was cut short last month. He landed on the injured list on September 6 with what the team initially diagnosed as a flexor strain. That was later revised to a UCL sprain, indicating some measure of tearing within the elbow ligament. With the Fish making a playoff push, Alcantara tried to return at season’s end. He threw four innings in a Triple-A rehab outing but reported additional forearm discomfort coming out of that appearance. Miami shut him down at that point.

The Fish were able to get into the postseason even without Alcantara contributing in the last few weeks. After being swept in the Wild Card round by the Phillies, they’ll go into the offseason looking for ways to build off this year’s promise. That’ll be quite a bit more difficult without one of the sport’s preeminent workhorses.

No pitcher has thrown more innings than Alcantara’s 619 over the last three seasons. Only Gerrit Cole has taken a heavier workload going back to the start of 2019. Alcantara handily leads the majors in complete games over the last three years, finishing off 10 starts. No other pitcher has gone the distance more than six times.

The two-time All-Star combines that MLB-best volume with outstanding rate production. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA every year from 2019-22, highlighted by a sterling 2.28 earned runs allowed per nine last season. He was unanimously voted the Senior Circuit’s top pitcher. Alcantara wasn’t as dominant this year, though he turned in another effective season overall. In 28 starts, he worked to a 4.14 ERA behind a 52% grounder rate while averaging over six and a half innings per appearance.

At this time last year, the Marlins had an embarrassment of riches on the mound. That contributed to their decision to deal Pablo López for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster. Miami has to be thrilled with what they received from Arraez in his first season in South Florida. While they still have a good rotation, its depth has taken some notable hits.

Trevor Rogers made just four starts, none after April, because of a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right (non-throwing) lat muscle. Prospect Jake Eder was dealt midseason for third baseman Jake Burger. Hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera walked over 15% of major league opponents and was demoted to Triple-A for a month midseason. He managed a 4.24 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout percentage. Miami’s starting staff ranked 9th in the majors in ERA (4.10), an effective yet hardly dominant result.

Left-handers Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett each topped 30 starts with sub-4.00 ERA showings. Top prospect Eury Pérez worked to a 3.15 ERA while striking out nearly 29% of batters faced in 19 outings as a rookie. They project as the top three in next year’s staff, likely followed by Cabrera and Rogers. Former #3 overall pick Max Meyer should be ready for Spring Training after missing all of this year working back from Tommy John surgery of his own.

There’s significant ceiling in that group, but only Luzardo and Garrett have shouldered a full big league workload within the last two seasons. The club could be cautious with innings counts for any of Pérez, Rogers or Meyer. Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing currently stand as the top depth options.

It seems likely Miami will bring in a veteran arm to add some stability to the group. They hoped that last winter’s signing of Johnny Cueto to an $8.5MM free agent deal would lock in serviceable back-of-the-rotation innings. Cueto didn’t meet expectations and is headed back to the open market. GM Kim Ng and her staff could look for a similar addition this time around.

Alcantara will count against the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. Miami can place him on the 60-day injured list at the beginning of Spring Training. As part of the extension he signed in November 2021, he’ll make $9MM next season. Alcantara is under contract for $17MM annually between 2025-26. Miami has a $21MM option or a $2MM buyout for the ’27 season.

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Billy Eppler Steps Down As Mets’ General Manager

By | at October 5, 2023 11:02pm CDT

6:10PM: Eppler resigned to avoid being a distraction to the club during an ongoing MLB investigation into Eppler and the Mets allegedly making improper use of the injured list, as per a report from the New York Post.  (Link to our full post on this story.)

3:23PM: Mets general manager Billy Eppler has resigned from his position, according to a press release from the team.  Mets owner Steve Cohen said that Eppler “led this team through a 101-win season and postseason berth last year and he will be missed.  We accepted Billy’s resignation today as he decided it is in everyone’s best interest to fully hand over the leadership of Baseball Operations to David Stearns. On behalf of the Mets organization, we wish him all the best.”

Eppler himself issued a comment in the release, saying “I wanted David to have a clean slate and that meant me stepping down.  I hope for nothing but the best for the entire Mets organization.”

Given how Stearns’ first few weeks have seen the Mets cut ties with manager Buck Showalter and make some other personnel changes within the front office, it doesn’t seem shocking on paper that Eppler is also on the way out.  That said, Eppler had been expected to continue as GM and serve as Stearns’ top lieutenant, making today’s news “a major surprise” in the view of SNY’s Andy Martino.  Two full years remained on the original four-year contract Eppler signed with the Mets in November 2021.

The Amazins brought Eppler into the fold with the hopes of stabilizing a front office that had become a revolving door.  Sandy Alderson stepped away from the GM position in July 2018 due to a battle with cancer, with John Ricco, J.P. Ricciardi, Omar Minaya handling matters on an interim basis until Brodie Van Wagenen was hired a few months later as the new general manager.  Van Wagenen’s tenure lasted for a little more than two years (until Cohen bought the team), and incoming GM Jared Porter lasted only six weeks before being being fired due to reports of a past incident of sexual harassment.  Zack Scott then became interim GM but lasted less than a year, as a DWI charge led the Mets to ultimately part ways.

Even with the lockout interrupting much of the 2021-22 offseason, the Mets still spent big both before and after the transactions freeze, with some of Eppler’s biggest strikes happening in the few weeks between his hiring and the early-December shutdown.  That winter saw the Mets bring Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Chris Bassitt into the fold, while also hiring Showalter as the new manager.  The result was a 101-61 record, the second-highest win total in the Mets’ franchise history.  However, New York still had to settle for a wild card slot after losing the NL East crown to the Braves on a tiebreaker, and the Mets’ playoff run quickly ended with a three-game loss to the Padres in the NL Wild Card Series.

With Cohen sparing no expense on player payroll, Eppler kept the big moves coming last winter, bringing both new faces (Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and more) to Queens on pricey free agent deals, re-signing Mets staples Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and even extending other regulars like Jeff McNeil.  The result was an Opening Day payroll of over $330MM — far and away the biggest in baseball history, with a record luxury tax hit to match.

Unfortunately for the Mets and their fans, the large payroll meant an equally large disappointment when the team simply failed to get on track.  With injuries playing a factor, New York finished only 75-87, resulting in a midseason pivot that saw Scherzer, Verlander, Canha, Escobar, Tommy Pham, Dominic Leone, and David Robertson all dealt, primarily to add some new young talent to the organization since the Mets ate most of the remaining salary involved in these trades.

“One of the goals here is to expedite the longer-term goal.  We’re trying to restock and reload the farm system,” Eppler told reporters at the trade deadline.  “You have to go through a little pain to get where we want to go, but I feel like the organization is making strides towards a better future…..Going into 2024 we don’t see ourselves having the same odds that we did in 2022 and 2023, but we will field a competitive team.”

It remains to be seen how the Mets could operate under Stearns, and whether their plan to take some level of a step back next season will impact how they spend, or how they acquire talent.  Whatever the outcome, Eppler won’t be part of the plan going forward, so hiring a new general manager as Stearns’ number two will now also be on the Mets’ to-do list.

Only 48 years old, Eppler already has a lengthy resume in baseball.  Beginning as a scout in the Rockies organization, he moved on to a decade-long run in the Yankees’ front office that saw Eppler promoted first to scouting director and then to assistant GM under Brian Cashman.  The Angels hired Eppler as their general manager heading into the 2016 season, but was fired in September 2020 after the team failed to post a winning record in any of Eppler’s five seasons in charge.  He then briefly explored a new career path running WME’s baseball representation division, but was only in that job for a few months before stepping down to take the Mets’ GM job.

Eppler’s seven seasons as a general manager saw his teams deliver a 508-523 record, with only the 2021 Mets finishing above the .500 mark.  Despite the lack of results, it is still difficult to truly evaluate Eppler as an executive given the circumstances of both his jobs.  Angels owner Arte Moreno is known to carry a heavy influence over his front office’s decisions, and the Halos’ string of losing seasons has continued even after Eppler’s departure.  Eppler had more autonomy in New York, though Cohen’s desire to instantly make the Mets into a contender with no regard to payroll created its own set of unique pressures.  Eppler also had to combat the perception (and perhaps even the reality) that was something of a placeholder GM, only brought in once the previous choices were fired in quick succession, and with Cohen ultimately always intending to hire Stearns or a bigger-name executive like Theo Epstein or Billy Beane.

While Eppler’s resignation appears to have caught the Mets somewhat off-guard, there may no ulterior motive beyond what Eppler expressed in his own statement.  Having the former front office boss still in the organization as the second-in-command is an unusual situation, and it could be that Eppler had a change of heart after his first few weeks working under Stearns.  Resigning now gives Eppler a jump on the offseason, perhaps for a fresh start with another club or for a job outside of front office work, given his past association with WME.

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