Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley
4:05pm: The Boston org has wrapped up deals with all of its dozen arb-eligible players, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). We’ve covered several other players elsewhere. Notably, shortstop Xander Bogaerts ($12MM) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM) have agreed to big salaries.
11:20am: The Red Sox and American League MVP Mookie Betts have settled on a one-year deal worth $20MM, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The salary figure is a record for a player in his second year of arbitration eligibility. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Betts could earn an additional $400K via awards (Twitter link). Betts, who will remain under team control through 2020, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $18.7MM.
Fresh off a historic 2018 campaign in which he slashed an otherworldly .346/.438/.640 en route to a World Series title, Betts earned himself a $9.5MM raise from his previous salary. His record-setting deal will establish the new standard for players with four-plus years of MLB service time. In fact, notes Jeff Passan of ESPN, Betts’s new contract has been exceeded only by players in their fourth year of arbitration by virtue of the Super Two rule.
Furthermore, this development could be notable for the Red Sox in that the team failed to reach an agreement with their superstar outfielder last winter, leading to an arbitration hearing to determine his salary. It is possible that this settlement could signify an increased willingness to discuss a potential contract extension, for which it appears talks have yet to substantially progress, in the future. However, should the two sides fail to agree to a multi-year extension next offseason–Betts’s last arbitration-eligible season before reaching free agency–the three-time All-Star could command an astronomical salary in his final year of team control; at the very least, Betts appears poised to eclipse–if not shatter–the $23MM record set by Josh Donaldson one year ago, which currently marks the highest one-year arbitration salary ever.
Mets, Jacob deGrom Avoid Arbitration
Reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom and the Mets have settled on a one-year deal worth $17MM, tweets Andy Martino of SportsNet New York. After earning $7.4MM in 2018, deGrom earns a $9.6MM raise from his 2018 salary, breaking the record for an arbitration raise set by Mookie Betts just hours ago. The $17MM figure represents the highest all-time salary for a pitcher in his third year of arbitration eligibility. deGrom, who will remain under team control through 2020, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.9MM in 2019. It should be noted that the projections’ guiding algorithm cannot account for context, which made deGrom a near lock to eclipse his relatively light projection, as Matt outlined here.
The 30-year-old righty enjoyed a season for the ages in 2018, posting a minuscule 1.70 ERA in 217 innings of work and striking out 269 batters. His efforts earned him 29 out of 30 first-place votes for the NL Cy Young Award despite an unremarkable 10-9 record. However, with the Mets making headlines as perhaps this winter’s most active team, new GM (and former deGrom representative) Brodie Van Wagenen hopes that the team’s offseason upgrades will translate to increased run support for the Mets’ stellar starting staff and vault the club into playoff contention. The staff ace, of course, is an integral part of that winning formula, though it remains unclear whether the team will be willing to dole out a hefty extension in future offseasons to keep deGrom around for years to come. Of course, the club may look to Noah Syndergaard, just 26 years of age, as an alternative, and a significant financial obligation to Robinson Cano over the coming five years may inhibit the team’s payroll flexibility. Regardless, the $17MM payday for deGrom will raise the bar for arbitration-eligible pitchers and lay the groundwork for what his earnings could look like next offseason, when he will be entering his final year of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency.
Athletics, Khris Davis Avoid Arbitration
Khris Davis and the Athletics have reached an agreement on a one-year deal worth $16.5MM, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. Davis had previously been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $18.1MM. Davis, 31, is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility before he may enter free agency next winter. Davis enjoyed a career year in 2018, slugging a Major League-leading 48 home runs and serving as a catalyst for a surprising A’s team that won 97 games and earned a trip to the AL Wild Card game.
Not only is Davis’s contract notable because of its overall dollar value but also because the salary comes in significantly below the figure projected for Davis earlier in the winter. For an Athletics team that entered 2018 with the Majors’ lowest payroll, the $1.6MM difference between Davis’s actual and projected salary certainly holds some importance. In a competitive American League, the Athletics still find themselves seeking out free agents to bolster an injury-battered pitching staff; indeed, the club, which has garnered a reputation as savvy market shoppers, will have an additional $1.6MM at their disposal compared to initial projections. While that money alone won’t buy one of the big names still without a contract, it will grant Oakland some invaluable flexibility as the team seeks to make a second consecutive postseason appearance.
Yankees Re-Sign Zach Britton
Jan. 11: The Yankees have now formally announced Britton’s return to the organization.
Jan. 5, 8:13pm: Britton will earn $13MM in each of the next three seasons and could make another $14MM in 2022, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. All said, it’s a $39MM guarantee that could reach $53MM. However, if Britton opts out after two years, it’ll be $26MM. He’ll also get a $1MM assignment bonus if the Yankees trade him, Rosenthal relays.
8:03pm: The three-year guarantee is in the $40MM neighborhood, tweets Rosenthal, who writes that it could go “beyond” $50MM over four years. Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes the figure would be between $50MM and $55MM.
7:50pm: A deal is in place, per Jeff Passan of ESPN, who reports it’ll be for approximately $13MM per season. Passan adds the Yankees will be able to exercise a fourth-year option after the second season. Otherwise, Britton will have the choice to opt out at the conclusion of the second year.
7:40pm: The Yankees are making progress on a contract with free-agent reliever Zach Britton, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The two sides could finalize an agreement “soon,” per Rosenthal. The deal will be for three guaranteed years, but it’ll include an opt-out clause for Britton and an opt-in for the Yankees that could take it to four years, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. Britton is a client of the Boras Corporation.
New York has shown reported interest throughout the winter in Britton, one of two key relievers the team saw reach free agency after last season. One of those hurlers, righty David Robertson, signed with the Phillies on Friday, making it all the more important for the Yankees to re-up the left-handed Britton.
The 31-year-old Britton, best known for what was at times an elite run with the Orioles from 2011-18, joined the Yankees last July in a midseason trade between the AL East rivals. Britton then tossed 25 innings of 2.88 ERA ball as a Yankee, adding 7.56 K/9 against 3.96 BB/9. Between the O’s and Yanks, Britton managed a 3.10 ERA and a stellar 73 percent groundball rate over 40 2/3 frames in 2018, though his strikeout and walk numbers (7.52 K/9 and 4.65 BB/9) left much to be desired, as did his 4.22 FIP and 25 percent home run-to-fly ball rate. The sinker-reliant Britton also didn’t offer the same velocity he had during previous seasons.
Last season was the second straight injury-shortened campaign for Britton, who has battled forearm, knee and Achilles issues since his 2014-16 heyday in Baltimore. Thanks in part to his health troubles, Britton hasn’t been the dominant force he was during that otherworldly three-year stretch. Across 209 innings in those seasons, Britton led relievers in groundball rate (77.9 percent), finished second in ERA (1.38), logged 9.26 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9, and converted 120 of 128 save chances.
While Britton is no doubt one of the majors’ most proven closers, he won’t be the game-ending option next season in New York, which already has Aroldis Chapman for that role. He’s instead in line to rejoin Dellin Betances and Chad Green as the top setup options to Chapman (depth chart), and it’s possible free-agent righty Adam Ottavino will slide in along with them. Ottavino, the second-best free-agent reliever left (trailing Craig Kimbrel), remains a possibility for the Yankees, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
Adding Ottavino would be yet another costly move for the Yankees to ensure they offer another all-world bullpen in 2019. For now, with Kimbrel still on the board, Britton stands as the highest-paid reliever in this winter’s class. With $39MM in guaranteed money coming to him, Britton’s contract outdoes the deals awarded this offseason to similarly regarded relievers Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria. Britton’s pact is also worth north of the $33MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’d secure when he entered free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Marlins Reportedly Engaged In “Substantive” Realmuto Trade Talks
Now that Yasmani Grandal has agreed to terms with the Brewers, the Marlins are ramping up trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and are in “substantive discussions” with six teams, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro pegs the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Rays, Padres and Reds as the six teams still in the mix for Realmuto. Frisaro further tweets that the Dodgers “may be [the] most motivated” to land Realmuto of the six current suitors.
As one would expect, the report indicates that Miami’s asking price remains extremely high — at least one elite prospect and, in some cases, a big league catcher with some MLB experience already under his belt. For the six clubs in question, the Dodgers (Austin Barnes), Astros (Max Stassi), Padres (Austin Hedges) and Rays (Michael Perez) would best fit that billing. The Reds, too, have Tucker Barnhart as a catcher with MLB experience, though he’s signed through 2021 (plus a 2022 option) as part of a $16MM extension. He’s previously been rumored as a potential piece in talks with the Marlins, but while his salary isn’t exactly prohibitive, it’d be more logical to see Miami pursue younger, pre-arbitration options who are not yet eligible for arbitration. None of the aforementioned catchers, of course, would be a centerpiece to the deal but could give the Marlins a near-term replacement while they hope for higher-end talent to emerge from their system.
When and whether anything more significant comes to fruition remains to be seen, but the timing of the report certainly makes sense. Now that Grandal is no longer an option for teams around the league who are in the market for a catcher, the Marlins can legitimately pitch Realmuto as the primary difference-maker available. As shown in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker, light-hitting defensive specialist Martin Maldonado is the top remaining free agent. Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli is an option on the trade market, but he’s earning north of $11MM next season, would be a one-year rental and has some concerning recent issues with concussions.
All six of the rumored suitors have deep farm systems that also feature high-end talent, with each of the bunch possessing multiple prospects currently ranked among the game’s 50 best minor leaguers (per both MLB.com and Fangraphs). However, teams throughout the league are increasingly reluctant to part with top-tier minor league talent — particularly when the prospective trade partner is also seeking a controllable MLB-level asset in return, as the Marlins appear to be doing in Realmuto discussions.
MLBTR Reader Survey
Please take the MLBTR Reader Survey! This anonymous survey should take about three minutes, and we will use the information to continue improving the site. Click here to take the survey.
Giants Showing Interest In DJ LeMahieu, Exploring Joe Panik Trades
The Giants are discussing trade scenarios involving Joe Panik with multiple clubs, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who notes that the infield market is beginning to pick up some steam (as evidenced by this morning’s agreement between Brian Dozier and the Nationals). In a related report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Giants are among the teams showing interest in free-agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu.
It stands to reason that if the Giants have serious interest in bringing LeMahieu on board, they’d first need to move Panik. Both are pure second basemen at this juncture of their respective careers, and even if the Giants had interest in slotting LeMahieu or Panik in at a different position on the infield, third base and shortstop are locked up by Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford — neither of whom is particularly movable on the trade market (Longoria primarily for financial reasons and Crawford due largely to a full no-trade clause).
Panik, 28, already avoided arbitration earlier this offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $3.8MM contract. He’s coming off the worst offensive season of his career, having batted .254/.307/.332 with just four home runs in 392 plate appearances — production that rated 23 to 25 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter, based on park-neutral metrics (77 OPS+, 75 wRC+). Panik was a Gold Glover in 2016 and was generally regarded as a plus defender at second base, but his defensive ratings have also slipped in recent seasons. He’s only a year removed from a productive season at the plate, however, as he hit .288/.347/.421 with 10 long balls in 2017 before thumb and groin injuries hindered his playing time last season.
As for LeMahieu, he’s perennially among the game’s premier defensive second baseman and has consistently hit for average, though his overall production has wavered somewhat on a year-over-year basis. LeMahieu won a surprise National League batting title when he hit .348/.416/.495 in a career year back in 2016, but while he followed that up with a high-quality .310 average in 2017, his power fell off, as he slugged just .409 that season and posted a .099 ISO (slugging minus batting average). This past season, most of his pop returned, but his overall output checked in at .276/.321/.428 — rather pedestrian production when considering his hitter-friendly home setting (86 wRC+).
All in all, LeMahieu generally rates as an average or better overall hitter with premium defensive skills. He’s batted a combined .309/.369/.429 across the past four seasons and been one of the toughest strikeouts in the league over that span, punching out in just 14.2 percent of his plate appearances. LeMahieu would provide the Giants with better defense than they expected from Panik even at his peak, and he’d bring a more reliable bat to the table as well — albeit at a considerably higher price point. His past production makes LeMahieu an easy candidate for a solid multi-year deal in free agency, though he won’t cost the Giants anything in terms of draft-pick compensation, as the Rockies did not issue him a qualifying offer at season’s end.
Rangers Sign Shelby Miller
Jan. 10: Miller can earn $1.25MM worth of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster and another $1.75MM worth of bonuses based on innings pitched, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. The innings incentives kick in once he reaches 60 innings and cap out at 180 innings.
Jan. 9, 5:00pm: The Rangers have announced the signing. Texas also formally announced its previously reported minor league signings of right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and infielder/outfielder Danny Santana. Both Gomez and Santana will be in Spring Training as non-roster invitees.
4:20pm: Miller will receive a $2MM guarantee, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that incentives in the deal provide Miller with the opportunity to earn an additional $3MM. Rosenthal tweets that Miller has already passed his physical, meaning the deal is complete. Presumably, a formal announcement from the Rangers will follow in the near future.
4:08pm: The Rangers are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract with right-hander Shelby Miller, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.
Miller, a client of Roc Nation Sports, will be the latest addition for a Texas club that has worked to dramatically overhaul its starting rotation on the heels of a disastrous 2018 season. Texas added left-hander Drew Smyly in a trade at the outset of the offseason and has since signed Lance Lynn on a three-year contract and selected the contract of veteran righty Edinson Volquez, who was signed last offseason to a two-year minor league contract in the wake of Aug. 2017 Tommy John surgery. That quartet, presumably, will team up with lefty Mike Minor to comprise the Rangers’ rotation early in the 2019 campaign (health permitting).
Certainly, it’s a group with plenty of potential, although it’s also one that comes with an extreme degree of uncertainty. Miller is perhaps the greatest wild card of the bunch, as the righty underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2017 season and missed the bulk of the 2018 campaign due to a separate set of elbow issues. In all, Miller has been limited to just 38 innings across the past two seasons.
Of course, it wasn’t that long ago that the now-28-year-old Miller looked to be one off the game’s most promising young pitchers. As a prospect, Miller was ranked within the game’s top 10 overall prospects by Baseball America heading into both the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and he did little to dispel the notion that he was a rising star with his early career work. Miller posted a 3.33 ERA over the life of 370 innings in his first two-plus seasons with the Cardinals from 2012-14 before being flipped to the Braves as part of a deal that sent then-star outfielder Jason Heyward from Atlanta to St. Louis.
Miller’s lone season with the Braves looked nothing short of spectacular on paper, as he notched a career-best 3.02 ERA over the course of a career-high 205 1/3 innings. It was a strong year all around for Miller, but one in which he enjoyed a torrid two-month start to the season before delivering roughly league-average levels of output over the final four months. Even with some regression to be expected, however, he looked every bit the part of a quality big league starter, though the D-backs were widely criticized for surrendering a package of Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair in order to acquire him in the 2015-16 offseason.
Lopsided as the trade appeared, no one could have foreseen the catastrophic collapse Miller experienced with Arizona in his first season there. The right-hander limped to a ghastly 6.15 ERA as he averaged a career-low K/9 (6.24) and a career-high BB/9 (3.74) and HR/9 (1.25). Miller was even demoted to Triple-A that season amid the most pronounced struggles of his career, and while he looked more promising in four starts early in the 2017 season, he then required the aforementioned Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of the 2017-18 seasons.
For Texas, Miller represents a pure upside play at a minimal cost. While the homer-friendly Globe Life Park is hardly an ideal setting for Miller to attempt to rebuild his career, the Rangers can surely offer him a guaranteed rotation spot and were willing to commit a spot on the 40-man roster — a pair of enticements that many contending clubs may not have been willing to offer. If he’s able to round into form, he’ll be a highly appealing trade asset this summer, given the modest financial commitment at stake in this contract.
As for the rest of the Rangers’ staff, Lynn will be looking to bounce back from an awful season split between the Twins and the Yankees — though he at the very least demonstrated some highly intriguing K/BB numbers after being traded from Minnesota to New York. The three-year term for Lynn was a surprise to most, but as a non-contending club in a hitter-friendly park, the Rangers likely had to top other suitors in convincing fashion. Meanwhile, neither Smyly nor Volquez has thrown a pitch since undergoing their own pair of Tommy John surgeries. Smyly missed all of the 2017 and 2018 seasons, while Volquez hasn’t thrown since late in the 2017 campaign. In the case of Volquez, this was his second career Tommy John procedure.
Jaime Garcia To Retire
Veteran left-hander Jaime Garcia is set to formally announce his retirement after spending parts of 10 seasons in the Majors, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Alex Carrion Velo of El Heraldo de Chihuahua in Mexico first tweeted that Garcia was “expected” to announce his retirement today.
Still just 32 years of age, Garcia struggled in 2018 after turning a solid 2017 effort between the Braves, Twins and Yankees. In 82 innings between the Blue Jays and Cubs in 2018, Garcia logged an unsightly 5.82 ERA with a 73-to-44 K/BB ratio in 33 appearances (14 starts).
From 2010-17, however, the left-hander was a quality midrotation piece, primarily for the Cardinals, for whom he played a significant role in a 2011 World Series Championship. Garcia’s 2011 campaign included 194 2/3 innings of 3.56 ERA ball, and he gave the Cardinals a pair of strong starts in the World Series, where he totaled 10 innings and yielded just two earned runs against the Rangers. Despite a long run as a useful big league starter, Garcia never made an All-Star team, though the 2011 World Series ring assuredly more than compensates for that in his eyes.
Overall, the lefty will walk away from the game with a lifetime 70-62 record, a 3.85 ERA in 1135 regular-season innings, 925 strikeouts (7.3 K/9) against 369 walks (2.9 BB/9) and an additional 32 1/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball from parts of four separate postseason appearances. He earned more than $60MM in player salaries over the course of his time in the big leagues and will long be remembered by Cardinals fans for the eight years and nearly 900 innings of quality production he gave to the St. Louis organization.
White Sox To Sign Jon Jay
The White Sox and free agent outfielder Jon Jay have reportedly agreed to a deal. If he passes his physical, the CAA client will receive $4MM on a one-year term.
Jay, 33, would seem to represent a solid veteran addition to an outfield unit that is quite light on experience. The South Siders have already made multiple short-term additions even while pursuing bigger fish.
A contact-oriented, left-handed hitter, Jay has posted an exactly league-average 100 OPS+ output at the plate over the course of nine MLB seasons. Of course, that overall mark has suffered over the past four seasons, over which Jay has mustered only a .272/.340/.351 slash (86 OPS+) — a significant dip in comparison to his prior levels of productivity.
It certainly does not hurt that Jay has ample experience in center field — an area of need for the Sox. He only lined up there for 223 innings last year, but has spent the bulk of his career up the middle.
All things considered, the veteran ballplayer profiles more as a second-division regular or as a platoon asset for a contending team. That’s no knock on Jay, who is a steady performer. But there’s virtually no pop in his bat, with a lifetime .093 isolated power mark. And his typically strong on-base abilities haven’t been quite as reliable of late, with sub-.340 OBP figures in three of the past four seasons.
Jay has also typically been more productive against right-handed pitching, though not dramatically so. He could conceivably pair with the right-handed-hitting Adam Engel up the middle in Chicago. It’s also possible Jay could spend some or most of his time in a corner spot. The club’s remaining offseason moves will no doubt dictate the ultimate alignment.
As Rosenthal notes, the potential addition of Jay represents another eyebrow-raising move from the Chicago organization. Jay and the recently acquired Yonder Alonso train in the offseason with superstar free agent Manny Machado, who is a prime target of the White Sox.
Ken Rosenthal and Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link) reported that the sides were in serious talks. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported (Twitter links) that the deal was done and included the terms.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.