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Nathan Eovaldi To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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1:02pm: Eovaldi will indeed undergo surgery, the team announced. He might require a rehab timeline of six to eight weeks, Topkin suggests on Twitter.

Eovaldi will be replaced for the time being by righty Austin Pruitt.

12:12pm: The Rays have suffered a tough blow on the eve of Opening Day, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that righty Nathan Eovaldi will be down to open the season. “Loose bodies” in Eovaldi’s elbow will likely require surgery, per the report.

A potential timeline is not yet clear at this point, though Topkin suggests that Eovaldi is still expected to be a candidate to pitch for the organization at some point in the 2018 season. A two-time Tommy John recipient, Eovaldi does not appear to be at risk of that kind of consequential procedure. But it’s obviously concerning to hear that he may well end up under the knife yet again.

Eovaldi, 28, had joined the organization on a two-year, $4MM deal that allowed him to rehab in 2017. The hope all along was that he’d bounce back in the coming season, and his anticipated presence became a key facet of the team’s plans as he progressed. Instead, he’ll now join prospects Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell — both of whom underwent TJ procedures this spring — on the shelf. The Rays traded away Jake Odorizzi earlier in the winter, further paring back the organization’s depth.

Tampa Bay has been plotting an interesting approach to their pitching staff, with intentions of using four starters and then filling the fifth starter’s role with a mix of relievers. Whether or not that’ll still be the plan remains to be seen. Clearly, though, the depth will be pressed. The three remaining starters — Chris Archer, Blake Snell, and Jake Faria — will need to be supplemented, with Matt Andriese seeming a likely candidate. That’ll still mean finding another reliever capable of giving some length, with recent trade acquisition Anthony Banda among the 40-man options that had been slated to open the year on optional assignment.

Needless to say, it’s brutal news for Eovaldi, who was on the cusp of launching his comeback. He had recorded a 14:1 K/BB ratio and allowed only six earned runs in 16 2/3 innings this spring. The six-year MLB veteran has long tantalized with his skill, including an upper-nineties heater, but has never quite fully turned the corner at the game’s highest level. In 739 career innings, Eovaldi owns a 4.21 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Athletics Prospect A.J. Puk Recommended For Tommy John Surgery

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8:34PM: As per a statement released by the A’s, Dr. James Andrews has recommended that Puk undergo Tommy John surgery to correct UCL damage in his throwing elbow.  Andrews provided the second opinion after Dr. Doug Freedberg made an initial diagnosis.  The procedure would put Puk out of action for an estimated 12-15 months, and it seems likely that Oakland would err on the longer side of that timeline for precautionary reasons.

6:28PM: A’s manager Bob Melvin confirmed that Puk is getting a second opinion but didn’t provide details on the specifics of the injury, MLB.com’s Jane Lee tweets.

5:45PM: Athletics left-handed pitching prospect A.J. Puk was shut down last week due to biceps soreness, and now there are concerns that Puk may have a ligament problem in his throwing elbow, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman.  Puk “was thought to be” looking for second opinions after initial meetings with doctors since his shutdown, which would hint at a larger issue.  Another possible ominous sign, as noted by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link), is that the A’s themselves have yet to go on record about Puk’s injury, not even to confirm the initial diagnosis.

The worst-case scenario for ligament issues, of course, would be Tommy John surgery, which would sideline Puk until midway through the 2019 season.  The A’s have already lost Jharel Cotton to TJ surgery this spring and Paul Blackburn has also been sidelined with a forearm strain, though Puk going on the shelf would represent a big setback for both the club and for one of the game’s best prospects.

Puk entered the spring as the consensus pick as Oakland’s top minor leaguer, with ESPN.com’s Keith Law ranking the southpaw 13th on his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball.  (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Fangraphs all had Puk 30th, while MLB.com ranked him just behind at 32nd on their top-100 lists.)  Puk only added to his stature with a strong showing in Oakland’s spring camp, though a rough performance in his final appearance led to the shutdown, and Heyman observes that Puk’s velocity had dropped over his last two outings.

Drafted sixth overall in 2016, Puk had already reached Double-A last season and it was expected he would make his MLB debut at some point this season.  After his good start in spring camp, there was even some chatter that the A’s would give him an aggressive promotion right to the big leagues, though obviously now the team will be as careful in possible in getting Puk back onto a mound at all, if possible.

Diamondbacks To Extend Ketel Marte

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TODAY: The deal is now official.

YESTERDAY, 4:26pm: Zach Buchanan of The Athletic has tweeted the full breakdown. Marte will receive a $2MM signing bonus and $1MM salary for the coming season, followed by $2MM, $4MM, $6MM, and $8MM salaries through the guaranteed seasons (2019-22).

The options are valued at $10MM and $12MM, each of which come with a $1MM buyout. Incentives (details of which remain unknown) could tack on another $4MM overall.

11:41am: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a five-year, $24MM extension with middle infielder Ketel Marte, Robert Murray of FanRag reports. The deal also comes with a pair of option years worth a combined $22MM, which could make it a seven-year, $46MM pact. Marte is a client of the Legacy Agency.

The Diamondbacks already had Marte under control for the next half-decade, including four arbitration-eligible years, but the extension means they won’t go through that process at all with him. The Phillies made a similar decision Sunday when they signed infielder/outfielder Scott Kingery to a five-year, $24MM guarantee of his own.

The 24-year-old Marte is about to begin his second season in Arizona, which acquired him from Seattle in a blockbuster November 2016 trade. Because the deal also featured Taijuan Walker, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger, Marte flew under the radar at the time, especially after enduring a rough 2016 with the Mariners. Marte impressed his new team last year, however, even though he didn’t post eye-popping offensive numbers in the majors.

After spending nearly the first three months of 2017 at the Triple-A level, where he raked over 338 plate appearances (.338/.391/.514 – good for a 135 wRC+), the Diamondbacks promoted Marte in late June. The switch-hitter went on to bat .260/.345/.395 (89 wRC+) with five home runs and three stolen bases in 255 PAs. To his credit, Marte collected nearly as many walks (29) as strikeouts (37), and as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote in December, there’s data suggesting he could be in line for a breakout. Marte was somewhat of a Statcast darling last year, evidenced by his 19th-place ranking in sprint speed and a quality xwOBA (.342).

While Marte’s only a .265/.319/.361 hitter (84 wRC+) with eight homers and 22 steals in 968 major league PAs, the D-backs seem optimistic he’s indeed capable of more in their uniform. And they saw him fare nicely in the field last season, where he logged four Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 507 innings at shortstop. Marte’s now likely to give up short in favor of Nick Ahmed, a gifted defender who missed most of last season, and move to second. It’ll be a relatively new position in the bigs for Marte, who hasn’t lined up at the keystone since logging 31 innings there as a rookie in 2015.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Greg Bird To Undergo Ankle Surgery, Miss 6-8 Weeks

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The Yankees announced that first baseman Greg Bird will undergo surgery on Tuesday “to remove a small broken spur on the outside aspect of his right ankle.” He’ll miss approximately six to eight weeks as a result.

This is the latest in a growing line of injury problems for the 25-year-old Bird, who sat out the entire 2016 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery and then missed the majority of last season with a right foot injury. He and the Yankees are left to hope surgery repairs that foot, and it’ll leave the club with Tyler Austin and Neil Walker among its big league first base options in the meantime. If the Yankees look for outside help, it’s worth noting that they had Adam Lind in camp earlier this month. New York elected to release Lind, who remains a free agent.

Regardless of where the Yankees go from here at first, it’s obvious this is a notable blow to both them and Bird. At his best, the left-handed hitter has looked like a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium and its short right field porch. There was optimism that a healthy Bird would break out from the get-go this year and give the Yankees a fourth fearsome slugger to join Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez. But it’ll be yet another abbreviated campaign for Bird, who has played just 94 games since earning his first major league promotion in 2015.

Although Bird wowed during his rookie campaign with a .261/.343/.529 line (137 wRC+) in 178 plate appearances, last year’s injury limited him to a .190/.288/.422 showing (86 wRC+) in 170 PAs. To his credit, Bird returned in time for the playoffs to serve as one the Yankees’ top October performers before they fell in a seven-game ALCS against the Astros. That’ll go down as Bird’s last meaningful action until at least mid-May.

Giants Hire Dusty Baker As Special Advisor

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The Giants are expected to bring back former manager Dusty Baker as a special advisor to CEO Larry Baer, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Baker will report to executive vice president Brian Sabean in his new role, which the Giants are likely to announce Monday.

The 68-year-old Baker will return to work in his home state of California, where he played with the Dodgers, Giants and Athletics from 1976-86. He has since enjoyed an accomplished career as a manager, and a large portion of his success as a skipper came during his San Francisco tenure.

Baker was atop the Giants’ dugout from 1993-2002, a decadelong span in which the Barry Bonds-led club went 840-715 during the regular season, posted six plus-.500 campaigns and made three trips to the playoffs (Bonds is also a special advisor to Baer nowadays). During Baker’s last season at the helm, the Giants took home the National League pennant before falling to the Angels in a seven-game World Series.

Shortly after the Giants came up short in the Fall Classic, Baker departed to manage the Cubs, with whom he served from 2003-06 (including for the infamous Steve Bartman incident against the Marlins during the ’03 NLCS). He then went on to hold the same position with the Reds (2008-13) and Nationals (2016-17).

While a championship has eluded Baker during his 22-year career as a manager, which is potentially over, his teams have combined for an impressive 1,863-1,363 regular-season record and nine playoff berths. Only 13 other managers are ahead of Baker on the all-time wins list, and 12 are enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Phillies Sign Scott Kingery To Long-Term Deal

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2:51pm: The contract includes a $1.5MM signing bonus, per Gelb, who also has the yearly breakdown. Kingery will earn $750K this year, $1.25MM in 2019, $1.5MM in 2020, $4MM in 2021, $6MM in 2022 and $8MM in 2023. Additionally, there’s a $1MM buyout for the first option, $500K for the second, and $250K for the third, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).

2:14pm: The Phillies have signed second base prospect Scott Kingery to a six-year contract through the 2023 campaign, according to a team announcement. It’s worth $24MM in guarantees, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. The pact also features club options for the 2024, ’25 and ’26 seasons, meaning it could cancel out three of Kingery’s free-agent years. Those options are worth $13MM, $14MM and $15MM, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports. Kingery is a client of PSI Sports Management.

Kingery’s payday is a record-breaking amount for a player who has never appeared in the majors, easily beating out the five-year, $10MM guarantee the Astros gave first baseman Jon Singleton (an ex-Phillies prospect) back in 2014. Kingery and Singleton are the only two players to ever receive long-term deals before debuting in the majors. The Singleton contract hasn’t worked out at all for the Astros, but the Phillies weren’t going to let that deter them from wrapping up Kingery for the long haul.

The news of the 23-year-old Kingery’s accord comes on the heels of his first big league promotion, which was reported earlier Sunday. Service time looked to be a concern prior to the announcement of the deal, but that obviously won’t be an issue now for the Phillies, who expect Kingery to emerge as an important major leaguer this season.

Kingery, who joined the Phillies in Round 2 of the 2015 draft, saw his stock soar last year after slashing .313/.379/.608 (166 wRC+) with 18 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 317 Double-A plate appearances. The righty-swinger earned a promotion to Triple-A as a result of that production and also performed well at that level, where he batted .294/.337/.449 (117 wRC+) with eight homers and 10 steals in 286 PAs.

Thanks to his breakout 2017 showing, Kingery ranks as MLB.com’s 35th-best prospect. The outlet lauds his “advanced approach” at the plate and “plus speed,” noting that he has the upside of an everyday second baseman. The Phillies already have a quality second baseman in Cesar Hernandez, who accounted for 7.6 fWAR from 2016-17, so it’s unclear how often Kingery will play there in the near term.

Even if Hernandez continues to hold down the keystone for the time being, Kingery could factor in elsewhere. Although nearly all of Kingery’s minor league action came at second, manager Gabe Kapler suggested earlier this spring that the player could fill a super-utility role in the majors (via Matt Gelb of The Athletic; subscription required).

“He can play in the big leagues at many different positions,” Kapler said. “He can play second base, he can play shortstop, he can play centerfield. There’s no doubt in my mind that he can handle third base. He can handle both corners. In theory, that’s an exciting role for Scott.”

For the most part, the Phillies look well positioned in the infield (depth chart), where big-money first baseman Carlos Santana and touted shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford will join Hernandez in starting roles. Third baseman Maikel Franco has been a disappointment, however, and could cede his spot to Kingery if he continues to struggle this year. The Phillies are also talented in the outfield, where slugger Rhys Hoskins will play left and Odubel Herrera will continue to handle center. Right field’s less certain, although both Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr impressed last season.

Regardless of where Kingery lines up in 2018 and beyond, it’s obvious the Phillies regard him as an integral core piece and someone who can help them return to relevance. Philadelphia is mired in a six-year playoff drought and hasn’t finished .500 or better since 2012. The franchise looks to be on the upswing, though, in part because of Kingery’s potential.

Along with Kingery and the rest of the Phillies’ previously mentioned talent on the position player side, they made a bold strike in free agency in signing former Cubs ace Jake Arrieta to a three-year, $75MM contract. They also have budding star righty Aaron Nola under control through 2021. Plus, given that the Phillies have the capability to spend among the league’s top teams (as seen with the Santana and Arrieta signings), they should be in play for other established free agents in future offseasons.

Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported the news. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Extend Christian Vazquez

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The Red Sox have signed catcher Christian Vazquez to a three-year contract extension that’ll run through the 2021 season, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe was first to tweet (Vazquez was already set to receive $1.425MM this season after his first trip through the arbitration process). According to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, he’s set to receive $2.85MM in 2019, $4.2MM in 2020, and $6.25MM in 2021. The extension also comes with a club option for 2022, valued at $7MM; that option comes with a $250K buyout, and can increase to $8MM if he manages to accrue at least 502 plate appearances in each of 2020 and 2021. Mastrodonato also tweets that Vazquez has offered to make an annual donation to the Red Sox foundation as part of the agreement. He’s represented by MDR Sports Management.

Over the course of his career, Vazquez hadn’t received much attention for anything other than his defensive prowess behind the plate. That changed a bit, however, when the now-27-year-old hit .290/.330/.404 across 345 plate appearances for the Red Sox in 2017. While a .348 BABIP suggests that those numbers could regress significantly, the combination of an offensive breakout and a stellar defensive reputation apparently convinced the team that he’s worth keeping in the fold through his age-30 season (and possibly his age-31 season as well).

Vazquez will receive $13.55MM in new guarantees from the pact, including the buyout of his option. As for the Red Sox, they’ll receive cost certainty across the catcher’s final two arbitration seasons in addition to delaying his free agency by a year, and possibly two. The pact is somewhat similar to the extension given to Indians catcher Roberto Perez just last season, who’s also a client of MDR Sports Management.

While Vazquez spent last season in a nearly-equal time share with fellow backstop Sandy Leon, the terms of the option (and indeed the extension itself) seem to hint that they’d like to give the lion’s share of at-bats and defensive innings to the former. Considering he’s been worth 31 defensive runs saved in just 1,668 innings behind the dish over the course of his career, more playing time for Vazquez would likely end up paying dividends for Boston.

A largely unheralded ninth-round pick by the Red Sox back in 2008, Vazquez has never known another major league organization. It took him six years to crack the MLB club, and even then he didn’t seem to be a core piece of the team right away. Vazquez owned a .309 career slugging percentage prior to last season, and missed all of 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. However, the Red Sox will hope that last year’s 1.6 fWAR showing is more indicative of his talent moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Madison Bumgarner Diagnosed With Fractured Finger

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6:33pm: Bumgarner has a displaced fracture in his fifth metacarpal (that is, his pinky), Baggarly reports (Twitter links). He’ll have surgery tomorow to place pins that will remain in place for four to six weeks. Once his finger is back in working order, of course, Bumgarner will need to build back up to a starter’s workload.

The hope at this point is that Bumgarner will be be able to return before the All-Star break, per Baggarly, who notes that there is a worthwhile comp to consider. Former Giants righty Ryan Volgelsong missed about 11 weeks with a similar injury back in 2013.

6:10pm: Giants ace Madison Bumgarner has been diagnosed with a fractured left hand after being struck on the hand by a batted ball today, the club announced and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Details on his anticipated absence are not known, but this is clearly a devastating injury for a player and team that were hoping for a major rebound from a disappointing 2018 season.

The 28-year-old Bumgarner has been one of the game’s preeminent workhorses ever since he took to the big league mound. Between 2011 and 2016, he never made less than 31 starts, threw fewer than 201 1/3 innings, or finished a season with an earned run average above 3.37. Over the past three seasons of that run, he took the ball 99 times and racked up 662 1/3 frames of 2.88 ERA ball. And that’s all before taking into account his legendary postseason efforts.

That all changed early last year, when Bumgarner was injured in a dirt bike accident. But he still made it back in time to finish the year with 111 innings of 3.32 ERA pitching on his ledger. And it seems fair to say that he has looked himself this spring. In his first five Cactus League starts, Bumgarner racked up 27 strikeouts against just three walks while allowing six earned over 19 frames.

In the aggregate, it seemed that the lost first half of the 2017 campaign might end up as little more than a blip on the radar for MadBum, a burly lefty who has long been a paragon of strength on the mound. While his shoulder does not appear to be a significant cause of concern moving forward, though, he’ll now have to work back from another injury.

As noted above, it’s impossible to say at this point how long the Giants will go without Bumgarner. The specifics of the injury, along with the course of treatment, could presumably result in a variety of scenarios. And he’ll clearly need to rebuild his pitch count before going full-bore at the game’s highest level. Position players frequently are able to return from this general sort of injury without terribly lengthy absences — less than six weeks in some cases — but perhaps it could take somewhat longer than usual for a hurler who suffered a fracture to his pitching hand. Regardless, we’ll need to await further word before any kind of timeline is available.

The news comes on the heels of the loss of another key starter, Jeff Samardzija, to open the season. Skipper Bruce Bochy said today that Samardzija is likely to miss something on the order of three to four weeks, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. That knocks out two of the team’s top three starters on the cusp of Opening Day.

As things stand, San Francisco is going to trot out a roster that features Johnny Cueto at the top of the rotation, followed by non-roster invitee Derek Holland and relatively unproven hurlers Chris Stratton and Ty Blach. There are some intriguing young talents that could conceivably take the fifth starter’s spot, once it’s needed, but the club will no doubt be on the look for outside additions. Of course, the luxury tax tightrope walk that the Giants have attempted this winter — which is why they shipped out a notable depth piece in Matt Moore — is going to make it hard to find any kind of impactful arm.

David Phelps To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Mariners right-handed reliever David Phelps suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm and will miss the season, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. He’ll need to undergo Tommy John surgery, Greg Johns of MLB.com adds (Twitter links).

Phelps suffered the injury on the final pitch of his outing last Saturday, per Johns. It’s yet another significant arm problem in Phelps’ short Mariners career, as he previously underwent season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow last September. That procedure came after a lengthy absence because of an elbow impingement. Phelps’ issues limited him to just 8 2/3 innings with Seattle last year after it acquired him from Miami in late July.

As was the case when they traded him for him in 2017, the Mariners were counting on Phelps to play a major role out of their bullpen this season. And for good reason, too, as the 31-year-old was among the majors’ premier relievers from 2016-17. Phelps made 108 appearances during that span, the third-highest total in the league, and pitched to a 2.69 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.11 K/9, 3.97 BB/9 and a 46.4 percent groundball rate over 133 2/3 innings.

This injury comes at an especially inopportune time for Phelps, given that he’s in a contract year. He’ll make $5.5MM this season and could have put himself in line for a sizable multiyear deal in free agency next winter. Instead, he’ll head to the open market off a major surgery, and because of the 12- to 15-month recovery time that follows Tommy John surgery, it’s likely he’ll miss at least some of the 2019 campaign.

The Mariners, meanwhile, will have to go without arguably their best reliever as they attempt to break a league-worst 16-year playoff drought. Seattle still has other proven options on hand (depth chart), including closer Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio and Nick Vincent, yet this is certainly an enormous blow with the season just over a week away.

With Phelps no longer in the mix, it’s possible general manager Jerry Dipoto will now seek to bolster his bullpen from outside, potentially via trade (his signature route), free agency or the waiver wire (which he utilized earlier Wednesday). There are a few household names remaining on the market, including Greg Holland (he’d come at a high price and would cost the Mariners a draft pick), Chad Qualls, Jason Grilli, Joe Blanton and Huston Street. Unfortunately for the Mariners, though, anyone from that group would have a hard time approaching Phelps’ recent production.

Orioles Sign Alex Cobb

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TODAY, 5:03pm: Heyman has the layout of Cobb’s contract (Twitter link). He’ll make $14MM in each year from 2018-2020, including $6.5MM deferred without interest this season and $4.5MM deferred without interest in both ’19 and ’20. Cobb will earn $15MM in 2021 and either $4.75MM deferred without interest or $9.75MM deferred without interest, if he throws fewer than 130 innings. If he amasses 180 innings in any of those seasons, he’ll rake in an extra $500K.

9:38am: Cobb has passed the notoriously stringent Orioles’ physical, Heyman tweets, making the deal official. It has also been announced by the organization.

The deal includes a no-trade provision, Heyman adds on Twitter. Cobb picks up full no-trade rights until this coming November and will be able to block deals to ten clubs from that point forward.

There’ll be $20MM in deferred money, Kubatko tweets, though the precise manner of the structure has yet to be reported. When that’s factored in, the present-day value of the deal is $47MM, he adds, though that is a number that’s certainly subject to quite a bit of interpretation. Every multi-year deal, after all, includes future obligations that can be discounted to a lump-sum current dollar amount, and the math is dependent upon what approach is utilized to perform the discount.

YESTERDAY, 9:19PM: Cobb and the Orioles have agreed that he’ll begin the season in the minors for a brief spell in order to get properly stretched out, BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly reports.  Cobb had enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment even though he has an option remaining, though obviously both sides felt a short stint on the farm was necessary.

6:53PM: The four-year deal will be worth $57MM, an MLB official tells 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link).  There is deferred money in each of the four years, Kubatko tweets.

6:06PM: The Orioles have agreed to sign right-hander Alex Cobb, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reporting (Twitter link) that the two sides had worked out a four-year deal believed to be worth close to $60MM.  Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported earlier today that there was “a strong belief” that Cobb was close to a contract, with the Orioles considered to be the favorite.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) confirmed the link between Cobb and the O’s, and noted that the deal will be official once Cobb passes a physical, while MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko was the first to report that the deal was a four-year agreement.  Cobb is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Cobb was long seen as a natural fit for the Orioles given their severe need for starting pitching, and the team indeed reportedly expressed interest in Cobb quite early in the offseason.  While it wasn’t necessarily a surprise to see the two sides end up in an agreement, however, there are some eyebrow-raising elements to this signing given the size and length of the contract.

Alex Cobb | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY SportsAs Passan noted, Cobb has been holding out for a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one-year contracts that several notable players were forced to settle for in recent weeks due to the unprecedented lack of activity in the free agent market.  Lance Lynn, for instance, was Cobb’s closest comparable on the open market and Lynn wound up signing a one-year, $12MM deal with the Twins.  Lynn, however, was also in talks with the Orioles and potentially left a longer-term offer on the table in order to sign with Minnesota, believing that the Twins had a better shot at contending in 2018.

Lynn’s rejection could have been what inspired the Orioles to give Cobb four years to solidify its rotation, as it was believed that the club was no longer willing to go beyond a three-year contract for a pitcher in the wake of the disastrous Ubaldo Jimenez signing.  Furthermore, the organization has long been very particular about signing veteran pitchers due to injury concerns, so it represents a bold step for owner Peter Angelos to sign off the biggest pitcher contract in franchise history for Cobb, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015.  (It’s worth noting that the O’s have changed or even abandoned agreements in the past due to concerns about pitcher health, so Cobb’s physical probably represents a bigger final hurdle than usual in most player signings.)

While many free agents left this winter’s market feeling short-changed, Cobb ended up finding his desired four-year guarantee and a very healthy salary.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Cobb 11th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $48MM deal.  Heyman reports that Cobb rejected an offer of that exact size from the Cubs earlier this winter, and despite the free agent deep freeze, eventually landed a more lucrative deal.

[Updated Orioles depth chart at Roster Resource]

It may be too close to Opening Day for Cobb to be ready for the very beginning of the season, though when he is set, the 30-year-old could very well be the ace of Baltimore’s rotation.  The O’s went into the offseason with only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy established in the starting five, and were in talks about a wide variety of free agent and trade possibilities.  Executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette has developed a pattern of late-winter signings during his time in Baltimore, and he stuck to that strategy again this year to rebuild his rotation, signing Andrew Cashner, re-signing Chris Tillman, and now adding Cobb within the last five weeks.

Cobb provides Baltimore with a solid, AL East-tested arm who looked to be front-of-the-rotation material in 2013-14 before getting his TJ surgery in 2015.  The procedure cost Cobb all of that season and limited him to just five starts in 2016, though he rebounded for a 3.66 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 2.91 K/BB rate over 179 1/3 innings for the Rays last season.  The post-surgery version of Cobb is striking out fewer batters than the pre-2015 Cobb, and his already-middling swinging strike rate took another drop to just 6.7% last season, plus his 36.9% hard-hit ball rate was a career high.

These concerns notwithstanding, it should be noted that Cobb pitched better as the season wore on, which is a good sign that he could fully back to his old self.  Even the 2017 version of Cobb would represent a big upgrade for the Orioles over fifth starter candidates such as Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes Jr. or Miguel Castro.  The O’s now face some roster-shuffling questions with these arms (Wright is out of options and Cortes is a Rule 5 pick), though they could all possibly be used in the bullpen.

Needless to say, this surplus of arms is now an unexpectedly good problem to have for an Orioles team that has positioned itself to stay competitive within a tough AL East.  The length of Cobb’s deal also indicates that the O’s aren’t planning for a rebuild after 2018.  Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach will all be free agents next winter (plus Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are entering their last year under contract), though Baltimore now has Cobb, Gausman, Bundy, Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens, and Chris Davis as core pieces through at least the 2020 season, plus prospects like Austin Hays and Chance Sisco.

Since Cobb rejected a qualifying offer from the Rays, the O’s will have to surrender their third-highest pick (51st overall) in the 2018 amateur draft, as they were a revenue-sharing recipient that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold.  Because Cobb received more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the Rays are now in line to receive a compensation pick after the first round of the draft.  This will actually be one of two picks for Tampa Bay in the “sandwich round,” as the Rays are also slated for a compensatory pick for not signing 31st-overall pick Drew Rasmussen in last year’s draft class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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