Cardinals Sign Dexter Fowler
The Cardinals have filled their oft-discussed need in center field, officially announcing a deal with free-agent Dexter Fowler. Fowler, a client of Excel Sports Management, will earn a reported five-year, $82.5MM in the deal, which comes with a $10MM signing bonus distributed over the contract and successive, $14.5MM annual salaries. The deal includes full no-trade protection.
[Related: Updated St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart]
Fowler, 30, will fill the open spot in the Cardinals’ outfield. The club has been seeking a player who can take over up the middle, bumping Randal Grichuk to a corner role. Though some questions remain as to just how strong a glove he brings to the center field job, Fowler certainly has plenty of experience. And the overall defensive alignment promises to be a vast improvement over the team’s 2016 unit.
While positional flexibility is a major element of Fowler’s appeal, the strongest elements of his game are on the offensive side of the spectrum. The switch-hitter typically performs better on the short side of the platoon but is an everyday option who looks good at the top of the lineup.
A remarkably consistent hitter, Fowler has rarely strayed from the .271/.371/.428 slash line that he carries since the start of the 2011 season. He was even better last year, hitting .276/.393/.447 for the division-rival Cubs. He’s a reasonable bet for a dozen or more home runs per year, but is at most an average source of power. The real value comes in his ability to reach base, and what happens when he does. Fowler did reject a one-year, qualifying offer from the Cubs following the season, meaning the Cardinals will forfeit the No. 19 pick in the 2017 draft. The Cubs, in return, will receive a compensatory pick following the first round.
Fowler’s excellent on-base numbers are supported by a strong walk rate (14.3% last year) and palatable strikeout numbers (22.2% career, which is right at league average). While he has benefited from elevated BABIP numbers, that appears more a reflection of skill than luck. When he gets aboard, Fowler continues to add value with his legs. He’ll typically swipe between 12 and 20 bags a year, but more importantly draws very strong overall baserunning reviews (eighth in BsR last year).
The biggest area of uncertainty is in the field. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have panned his glove over the years, with ratings typically ranging from slightly below average to rather abysmal. But last year was his best in the eyes of those metrics, which regarded him as a just-above-average fielder in center (where he has played almost exclusively as a major leaguer). Fowler credited alterations to his positioning in center field — specifically, playing deeper than in previous years — for the improvements.
All told, Fowler clearly featured as one of the stronger all-around players available on this year’s free-agent market. He’s arguably a superior player to Ian Desmond, who just landed a five-year, $70MM deal with the Rockies, depending upon whether one prefers Fowler’s steady hitting or Desmond’s defensive flexibility and raw tools.
Frank Cusumano of KSDK Sports (via Twitter) and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter) first reported that a deal was close. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported that an agreement was in place. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported the terms (Twitter link), with ESPN’s Mark Saxon (in a tweet) and Heyman (also via Twitter) also providing details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers, Justin Turner Progressing Toward Four-Year Deal
3:10pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the deal will be for $64MM when it is ultimately completed.
12:06pm: Sherman reports that the two sides have been discussing a contract in the vicinity of $64MM in total, though there could be a higher guarantee and some deferrals as well (Twitter links). The Rebel Media’s Chris Camello first tweeted yesterday that the two sides were getting close to a deal in the four-year, $65MM range.
10:41am: Heyman tweets that the Dodgers currently have an offer on the table to Turner and are awaiting his decision. ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets that both the Dodgers and Turner’s representatives at the Legacy Agency say there’s no agreement just yet, though both are hopeful.
10:24am: The Dodgers and Turner are progressing toward an agreement, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If an agreement is reached, it’ll “likely” be for four years, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman.
7:35am: The Dodgers are becoming more confident that they can re-sign third baseman Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter links). The two sides have been in talks on a four-year contract recently, Olney adds.
Turner, who turned 32 three weeks ago, has been one of the Dodgers’ top offseason priorities. He’s fresh off a brilliant season that saw him bat .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers, 34 doubles and outstanding defense at the hot corner (+7 DRS, +14 UZR). That marked the third consecutive season of exceptional offensive production from Turner, who signed a minor league contract with Los Angeles in February 2014 after being non-tendered by the Mets and went on to break out in Chavez Ravine. In 386 games and 1383 plate appearances as a member of the Dodgers, Turner has slashed .296/.364/.492.
Bringing back the right-handed-hitting Turner would be a boost to a Dodgers team that ranked last in the Majors against left-handed pitching in 2016 in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. However, it should also be noted that Turner’s own uncharacteristic struggles against southpaws last year contributed heavily to L.A.’s woes against in that department. Turner hit .282/.359/.465 against left-handers in his first two seasons with the Dodgers but slumped to a .209/.303/.337 mark last year. His strikeout and walk rates against lefties remained encouraging, although he sported just a .230 average on balls in play against lefties, which obviously proved to be a significant detriment.
Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/MLBTR projects the Dodgers for a $204MM Opening Day payroll as it is, even without re-signing Turner, so adding him back into the mix would presumably push the team’s 2017 payroll north of $220MM (though the deal could of course be backloaded to some extent). That number would continue to rise if the team were to re-sign Kenley Jansen, another top target, or add an experienced arm to replace their closer in the event that Jansen signs elsewhere. The Dodgers will, at least, be free of their obligations to both Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero next winter, which will result in about $28MM coming off their payroll. They’ll also be able to buy out Andre Ethier‘s $17.5MM mutual option. The following offseason will see Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu come off the books, creating plenty of opportunity for the Dodgers to shed some significant payroll and luxury tax considerations in the next two years.
Rays Sign Wilson Ramos
Catching help has been a priority for the Rays all offseason, and on Monday they announced the signing of veteran Wilson Ramos to a two-year deal contract that will reportedly guarantee the Octagon client $12.5MM (with a $4MM salary in 2017 and $8.5MM payday in 2018). Ramos will also have the opportunity to earn another $5.75MM worth of incentives, making for a total possibility of $18.25MM.
Perhaps the most notable incentive is an escalator provision that could allow Ramos to boost his 2018 salary by $2MM, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. He’d need to make 55 starts at catcher and not end up on the DL due to another knee injury to earn that boost. Additionally, for the 2017 season, Ramos can earn $250K apiece upon his 60th, 65th, 70th, and 75th games started behind the plate. He’ll get $125K at 300 and 325 plate appearances, and $250K a pop at 350, and every 25 plate appearances thereafter up to 500. Ramos can also bump up his 2018 earnings by $250K each upon his 450th, 475th, and 500th trip to the plate.
[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart]
The 29-year-old Ramos appeared set to land a massive free agent payday before suffering horrendously timed ACL and meniscus tears with less than a week to go in the regular season. The recovery from the surgery to repair those injuries will almost certainly carry on into the 2017 season. Ramos is now reportedly hopeful he can return to action in April or May, although it’s certainly possible that his absence could linger into the summer. (The Rays expect him to arrive in June or July, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.)
Before all that, Ramos hit .307/.354/.496 in 523 plate appearances in a breakout 2016 season with the Nationals. That performance won him his first Silver Slugger and All-Star berths, and catapulted him to a 3.5 fWAR season. He also has a reputation for solid, if unspectacular, defense behind the plate. StatCorner rates him as a slightly below-average pitch framer.
Whether he can produce anywhere near that well in 2017 or 2018 remains to be seen. As long as he can be healthy, though, he should be a significant upgrade for the Rays, who had Luke Maile and Curt Casali atop their depth chart at catcher. Given his injury, though, the Rays could also use Ramos at DH, particularly in 2017. The Nationals did not extend Ramos a qualifying offer, so the Rays will not have to sacrifice a draft pick as a result of the signing.
The relatively short duration of the deal will allow Ramos to hit the free agent market again at age 31, still a reasonable age for a catcher to land a significant contract. He will be able to rehab his knee injury without stress, while having enough time to reemerge as an elite catcher at some point during the course of the deal. Ramos declined a three-year, $30MM-plus extension offer from the Nationals in August, before his injury. (After the offseason began, the Nats quickly changed directions, dealing for Derek Norris to start for them at catcher.) Ramos’ current health issues and new contract are riskier for him, but if all goes well and he earns most or all of his incentives, he could conceivably make more than $30MM in the next three seasons anyway. Still, his $12.5MM guarantee seems modest for a player who would have been by far the best catcher available this offseason, had he been healthy.
Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post first reported that the two sides were meeting and that there was serious interest on Tampa Bay’s behalf (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post first tweeted word of the agreement between the two sides. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted the financial details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels Acquire Danny Espinosa
The Nationals have traded middle infielder Danny Espinosa to the Angels for minor league right-handers Austin Adams and Kyle McGowin, per an announcement from Washington.
[RELATED: Updated Nationals & Angels Depth Charts]
The Nats’ decision to move on from Espinosa came shortly after Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reported the 29-year-old’s displeasure with the club’s acquisition of outfielder Adam Eaton. In trading a haul to the White Sox for Eaton, the Nationals picked up a player who should be their long-term answer in center field, thereby sending Trea Turner to shortstop. With Daniel Murphy entrenched at second base, Espinosa would have had to take on a bench role in 2017 had Washington kept him.
Now on his way out of D.C., Espinosa will head back to his native California and join an Angels team that, prior to Saturday, was in dire need of a second baseman to pair with shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Before settling on Espinosa, the Angels made recent inquiries to the Padres, Cardinals and Phillies about their second base options. Espinosa will also reunite with a former teammate in third baseman Yunel Escobar, whom the Nationals traded to the Angels exactly one year ago.
A lifetime .226/.302/.388 hitter in 2,972 plate appearances, Espinosa is fresh off a season in which he slashed .209/.306/.378 with a career-best 24 home runs in 601 PAs. The majority of the switch-hitting Espinosa’s offensive success has come versus left-handed pitchers, against whom he has posted a .257/.327/.454 career line in 736 trips to the plate. But he has provided most of his value via the field, having amassed 25 Defensive Runs Saved and an Ultimate Zone Rating of 27.0 in 4,400-plus innings as a second baseman. With Espinosa and Simmons, one of the majors’ foremost defenders, the Angels should have an enviable double-play combination for at least next season. Espinosa will make an estimated $5.3MM through arbitration in 2017, his final year under team control.
Of the two pitchers the Halos sent to the Nationals, McGowin is the more notable. The 25-year-old ranked as the Angels’ 20th-best prospect, per MLBpipeline.com, which credits the 2013 fifth-round pick for his three-pitch mix and suggests that he has back-end starter upside. The 25-year-old hasn’t generated great results during his minor league career, though, and just finished a season in which he recorded a 6.11 ERA, 7.58 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9 over 116 1/3 innings in his first taste of Triple-A action.
Adams, also 25 (and not to be confused with the Indians righty), was impressive in relief for the Angels’ Double-A affiliate in Arkansas in 2016. Although he issued too many walks (5.28 per nine), the 2012 eighth-round pick offset that somewhat with a sky-high K/9 (13.28). All told, he registered a 3.05 ERA across 41 1/3 frames. In assessing Adams in 2015, former FanGraphs prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel complimented his above-average fastball and plus slider, though he also noted Adams’ lack of control.
Josh Norris of Baseball America was the first to report the trade and the two-prospect return (Twitter links). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yorman Landa Passes Away
Minor league pitcher Yorman Landa passed away last night, the Twins announced. The cause of death was a car crash in Landa’s native Venezuela, the Pioneer Press’ Mike Berardino writes. Landa’s father was driving and his car struck a fallen tree. Landa was 22.
“The Minnesota Twins are deeply saddened by the heartbreaking loss of Yorman Landa early this morning in Venezuela,” said Twins executive Derek Falvey in a statement. “On behalf of the entire baseball community, we send our sincerest condolences to the Landa family as well as Yorman’s many friends, coaches and teammates.”
The Twins originally signed Landa in 2010. They had recently non-tendered him, but they re-signed him to a minor league deal just this week.
Landa pitched in 2016 in the bullpen for Class A+ Fort Myers, demonstrating control problems but also strikeout ability. He ranked 20th in MLB.com’s list of the Twins’ top 30 prospects, with MLB.com noted his mid-90s fastball and potential to become a big-league setup man.
Diamondbacks Sign Fernando Rodney
DECEMBER 9: Arizona appears to have acknowledged the signing via Twitter, with a clever nod to Rodney’s post-save, arrow-shooting celebration.
Jack Magruder of Fan Rag tweeted the details of the incentives clause, which he says maxes out at $4MM. That includes $250K apiece if and when Rodney reaches 40, 50, and 60 appearances, with a $500K payout if he gets to 70.
DEC. 7: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Rodney’s deal would max out at $5MM if all of the incentives are reached.
DEC. 6: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent reliever Fernando Rodney, Jon Heyman of FanRag writes (Twitter links). Rodney will receive $2.75MM guaranteed, plus considerable incentives, and he’ll open the year as the Diamondbacks’ closer. Heyman had previously tweeted that the Diamondbacks and Padres were in talks with Rodney, who is an Octagon client.
It was a tale of two seasons for the Rodney in 2016 — he was brilliant for the Padres to start the year, allowing just one earned run through 28 1/3 innings in San Diego, but then he allowed twice as many walks in 36 2/3 innings after a trade to Miami. His 5.89 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in Florida led the Marlins to decline his 2017 option, which was effectively worth $4.5MM after incentives.
Where that leaves Rodney for 2017 is unclear — on one hand, he has closing experience, can still strike batters out and induce grounders, and managed to post a reasonable composite line in 2016 (3.44 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 5.1 BB/9). On the other hand, he faded down the stretch, walks too many batters, and will be 40 in March.
In any case, the Diamondbacks didn’t have an established closer, so the deal provides both player and team with an opportunity. Rodney can reestablish himself as a big-league closer. The Diamondbacks, who don’t appear likely to contend, can either keep him for the year or attempt to trade him, much as the Padres did last season — San Diego received a decent starting pitching prospect, Chris Paddack, when it dealt Rodney last June.
Rangers Acquire Tyrell Jenkins, Brady Feigl From Braves For Luke Jackson
6:59pm: Texas has announced the deal.
6:11pm: The Rangers and Braves have agreed to a trade that will send lefty Brady Feigl and righty Tyrell Jenkins to the Rangers, according to reports from Tommy Stokke of Fan Rag (via Twitter) and Keith Law of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Righty Luke Jackson is heading to Atlanta, Law adds on Twitter.
It seems fair to characterize this as something of a change-of-scenery swap involving two similarly situated young righties. The 25-year-old Jackson and 24-year-old Jenkins each drew a fair amount of attention as prospects and reached the majors only recently. In both cases, limited exposure to the big leagues has led to questions as to whether (and in what role) they can stick.
Taken with the 45th overall selection in the 2010 draft, Jackson brings a big arm to the table but hasn’t yet found his bearings at the game’s highest level. Over 18 MLB innings in the last two years, he has allowed 17 earned runs on 27 hits and ten walks, while retiring just nine batters via strikeout.
Though he has shown swing-and-miss stuff at all levels of the minors, and delivers a mid-to-upper-nineties fastball, Jackson has also long struggled with control. He has walked 4.6 batters per nine in his minor-league career, and a full-time shift to the pen hasn’t really helped much. In his 46 1/3 innings at Double-A and Triple-A last year, Jackson issued 32 free passes, though he also racked up 59 strikeouts.
For Jenkins, who joined the Atlanta organization as a part of the Jason Heyward-Shelby Miller swap, the results have been good in the upper minors over the last two years. But that has come in spite of a lack of strikeouts and uninspiring peripherals. Last year, for instance, he struck out 5.9 and walked 3.8 batters per nine over 83 2/3 Triple-A innings. He did end with a 2.47 ERA, though, in large part because he limited opposing hitters to just three home runs.
The dinger suppression did not continue when Jenkins hit the majors. He was touched for 11 long balls in his first 52 MLB frames. Over eight starts and six relief appearances in 2016, Jenkins worked to a 5.88 ERA while allowing 33 walks and striking out only 26 hitters.
There’s another piece being chipped in by the Braves, in the form of the 25-year-old Feigl. An undrafted product of Mount Saint Mary’s University, Feigl has been limited to 72 1/3 professional innings — mostly in the lower minors — as he fought through Tommy John surgery. He has shown well when healthy, though, posting a 2.74 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees To Sign Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees have agreed on a five-year deal worth $86MM, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes (Twitter links). Chapman will receive an $11MM signing bonus and $15MM per season, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets. He can opt out of the contract after three years, and he has a full no-trade clause through the first three years of the deal and a limited no-trade clause for the last two. He also cannot be traded to a West Coast-based team, ESPN’s Marly Rivera tweets. Since the Yankees traded Chapman last season, he was not extended a qualifying offer and thus will not cost the Yankees a draft pick. Chapman is a client of Magnus Sports.
[Related: Updated New York Yankees Depth Chart]
Chapman’s enormous $86MM guarantee destroys the previous record for the largest contract ever given to a free agent relief pitcher, topping Mark Melancon‘s recent deal with the Giants by a remarkable $24MM. The $17.2MM average annual value of Chapman’s deal also easily tops the previous high for a relief pitcher, set by Melancon ($15.5MM). Chapman’s deal is also the second largest for a free agent this winter, behind only Yoenis Cespedes‘ $110MM pact.
Still, the dollar figures of Chapman’s contract aren’t surprising — it had already been reported that Chapman had received a $92MM deal, a number that hardly seemed surprising given his talent. (It’s possible he elected to take a deal with a slightly smaller guarantee due to the opt-out.) We here at MLBTR predicted Chapman would head back to the Yankees on a $90MM contract. The 28-year-old Chapman has a well-earned reputation as the game’s most dominating relief pitcher, piling up strikeout after strikeout with ridiculous three-digit heat from the left side, as well as a slider that frequently touches 90 MPH. In his seven-year career in the big leagues, Chapman has struck out 636 batters just in 377 innings for an absurd 15.2 K/9, with a brilliant 2.08 lifetime ERA.
The Yankees and Marlins had each made five-year offers to Chapman, whose decision had turned into a linchpin of each team’s Winter Meetings activity. The Marlins had also been connected to Kenley Jansen, the other elite closer remaining, who will now likely head to Miami or back to the Dodgers.
The Marlins were, in fact, the runners-up to acquire Chapman, Rivera confirms, but Chapman says he wanted to return to the Yankees organization. “Every player dreams of being a Yankee, and if they don’t it’s because they never got the chance,” he says.
In the end, Chapman opted to return to the Yankees, for whom he posted a 2.01 ERA, 12.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 20 saves in 31 1/3 brilliant innings before heading to the Cubs in a trade last summer. Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances had combined to form the back end of what had been a devastating Yankees bullpen. Miller, of course, has moved on, but Chapman appears set to join Betances yet again in what should be one of the game’s best late-inning combos, with Chapman closing and Betances pitching in a setup role.
The Yankees spent the last half of the 2016 season retooling, shipping out Chapman, Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova while attempting to transition from a veteran team to a much more youthful one. The 2017 Yankees will also be without veterans Brian McCann (who was traded to the Astros) and Mark Teixeira (who has retired). With the additions of Chapman and Matt Holliday, however, the Yankees have plainly announced their intention to compete in 2017, and of course there will also be the expectation that Chapman can help well beyond that. In fact, the Yankees specifically targeted DH and closer as areas to upgrade because young players would not be blocked at those positions, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.
Chapman does come with significant baggage — he was suspended for 30 games at the beginning of the 2016 season due to violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. In October 2015, he allegedly choked his girlfriend, then went to his garage and fired his handgun eight times.
His contract also raises questions about how well he’ll likely perform over its duration. Long-term contracts for relievers infamously frequently turn out poorly. Still, Chapman is such a unique talent that it seems unwise to judge him based on the past troubles of significantly lesser pitchers. Also, the recent successes of pitchers like Chapman and Miller, as well as the 2014-15 Royals bullpen, demonstrate the impact terrific relievers can have on contending teams. Chapman’s new deal will only cover his age-29 through age-33 seasons, and if he can stay healthy, it’s easy to imagine him having success throughout its duration.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2016 Rule 5 Draft Results
The Rule 5 draft begins at 9.a.m ET as this year’s Winter Meetings in National Harbor, Md., draw to a close. Those unfamiliar with how the draft works can check out MLBTR’s full primer on the event here, but the short version is that teams with open 40-man roster spots can select players with four to five years of pro experience from other organizations if said player hasn’t been protected on the 40-man roster. Players who signed at 18 years of age or younger but have five years of experience can be selected, as can players signed at 19 or older who have four years of experience. Each selection costs $100K, but it’s not mandatory for teams to make picks. Clubs must carry chosen players on their active rosters (or the major league disabled list) throughout the entire 2016 season. Doing otherwise would expose them to waivers, and they’d then be offered back to their original club. Teams can also work out trades with the original organization to keep the selected player in the organization but send him to the minors.
The Rule 5 order is based on the reverse order of last season’s standings. The Twins own the No.1 overall pick, but they’re set to trade it to the Padres – who hold the No. 3 choice – according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter links). Minnesota will still make its selection at No. 1 and San Diego will do the same at No. 3. The teams will then make their trade, likely with money changing hands, as Mayo notes.
Courtesy of Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, here’s a rundown of the players garnering attention entering the draft. And here, via Mayo, is the draft order and the number of players on the teams’ 40-man rosters:
1. Twins (39) – RHP Miguel Diaz, Brewers
2. Reds (38) – C Luis Torrens, Yankees
3. Padres (33) – IF Allen Cordoba, Cardinals
4. Rays (39) – RHP Kevin Gadea, Mariners
5. Braves (39) – RHP Armando Rivero, Cubs
6. A’s (40) – No selection
7. D-backs (38) – RHP Tyler Jones, Yankees
8. Phillies (40) – No selection
9. Brewers (39) – LHP Caleb Smith, Yankees
10. Angels (39) – RHP Justin Haley, Red Sox
11. Rockies (37) – No selection
12. White Sox (38) – RHP Dylan Covey, Athletics
13. Pirates (38) – LHP Tyler Webb, Yankees
14. Marlins (37) – No selection
15. Royals (39) – No selection
16. Astros (39) – No selection
17. Yankees (39) – No selection
18. Mariners (40) – No selection
19. Cardinals (39) – No selection
20. Tigers (39) – LHP Daniel Stumpf, Royals
21. Giants (40) – No selection
22. Mets (40) – No selection
23. Orioles (36) – OF Aneury Tavarez, Red Sox
24. Blue Jays (38) – RHP Glenn Sparkman, Royals
25. Dodgers (40) – No selection
26. Red Sox (39) – IF Josh Rutledge, Rockies
27. Indians (38) – LHP Hoby Milner, Phillies
28. Nationals (38) – No selection
29. Rangers (39) – LHP Mike Hauschild, Astros
30. Cubs (35) – No selection
SECOND ROUND
Reds – C Stuart Turner, Twins
Orioles – OF Anthony Santander, Indians
Nationals Acquire Adam Eaton
The White Sox have announced that they’ve traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals in a deal centered on right-hander Lucas Giolito, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman previously reported. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago reported that right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning are also in the deal.
The price to acquire Eaton, 28, proved extremely costly for the Nationals, who will send two of the game’s top 10 right-handed pitching prospects, Giolito and Lopez, to Chicago in order to acquire him (rankings via MLB.com). Beyond that, Dunning was Washington’s first-round pick (No. 29 overall) this past summer.
The exceptionally steep cost to acquire Eaton is understandable, though, as he’s fresh off a season in which he batted .284/.362/.428 with 14 homers, 14 steals and perhaps the best right-field defense of anyone in baseball. Of course, the Nationals figure to put Eaton back in center field, where his glove isn’t as strong, but doing so will allow the team to put Trea Turner back at shortstop. And, with Jayson Werth hitting the open market next winter, the Nats could put Eaton back in a corner spot as soon as 2018 if GM Mike Rizzo adds a more premium defender next winter.
Not only was Eaton worth six wins above replacement in the estimation of both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference last season, he’s also on a wildly affordable contract that guarantees him just $19.9MM over the next three seasons and comes with two affordable club options. All told, his earnings can top out at $38.4MM if both options are picked up. For five eminently affordable years of a player of that ilk, it’s not surprising that multiple top 50 overall prospects and a 2016 first-round pick were required to pry Eaton away from the White Sox, who very clearly appear to be in the midst of an aggressive rebuilding process.
The Nationals had previously been in talks with the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen, with Lopez among the names connected to those talks. Their acquisition of Eaton would appear to shut the door on those negotiations. In Eaton, they’ve acquired a player who doesn’t have McCutchen’s power but who has superior secondary skills and is controllable for a longer period of time.
As for Chicago GM Rick Hahn, he’s bolstered his farm system by a staggering amount in a span of roughly 26 hours, as he added Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz in yesterday’s Chris Sale blockbuster with the Red Sox. Remarkably, the Nationals were reported to have offered both Giolito and Lopez in their offer for Sale, and despite making the decision to rebuff that offer, he acquired both ballyhooed righties just one day later.
Giolito ranks as the third-best prospect in baseball, via MLB.com, which rates Giolito’s mid- to upper-90s fastball an 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and regards his curveball almost as highly. Giolito raced from Double-A Harrisburg to the Majors in 2016, posting a 2.97 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 115 1/3 minor league innings and tacking on 21 1/3 more in the Majors. The White Sox’ plans for the towering 6’6″ righty aren’t yet clear, but he could easily become a regular big-league rotation option in 2017. Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets that the Nationals were “down” on Giolito, and some in the industry believe the Nats would have been willing to trade him in a one-for-one deal for Andrew Miller last summer, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeted. Still, Giolito retains enormous upside.
Lopez is lesser known than Giolito, but brings a big arms of his own and rates 38th in MLB.com’s list. Like Giolito, he pitched in Harrisburg, Triple-A Syracuse and Washington in 2016, and he fared well in the minors before struggling a bit in the big leagues — he posted a 3.21 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 109 1/3 minor league innings. He’s smaller than Giolito, at 6’0″, but like Giolito and Kopech, he’s got an electric arm — he can dial his fastball into the mid-90s and touch higher. He figures to pitch in the big leagues for at least a good portion of the 2017 season.
Dunning was the 29th overall pick in the June draft, and the 21-year-old rated as the Nats’ sixth-best prospect. Hayes tweets that the White Sox liked Dunning very much when they were scouting for the draft (when he was otherwise somewhat overlooked on a loaded Florida Gators team). MLB.com praises his fastball, which sits in the low- to mid-90s with good movement, and strong changeup. He made seven starts for the Nats’ short-season team in Auburn, posting a 2.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He seems likely to begin the 2017 season at the Class A or A+ level, and he’s likely to be at least a year or two from contributing in the big leagues.
Morosi first said the two sides had talked earlier today, and MLB.com’s Scott Merkin said a trade was in the works. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the deal was close to being finalized.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.