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Marlins “Making Progress” In Extension Talks With Dee Gordon

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The Marlins held extension discussions today with Dee Gordon’s representatives at Beverly Hills Sports Council, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter. The sides are “making progress,” per the report.

Gordon played at an extremely high level for Miami last year after coming over in a Winter Meetings swap from the Dodgers. He led the league with 58 stolen bases and a .333 batting average. He put up an overall 114 OPS+ for the season and drew rave reviews for his defense, making him worth about four to five wins above replacement.

The Fish control Gordon through 2018 via arbitration. MLBTR projects him to earn $5.9MM through the arb process in 2016. We learned yesterday that the sides were expected to explore a deal in Nashville.

Fifteen Teams Have Expressed Interest In Cliff Lee

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Free agent lefty Cliff Lee is drawing interest from no fewer than fifteen teams around the league, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. The long-time ace is reportedly preparing to return to the mound in 2016.

It’s certainly not surprising to hear that so many organizations are looking into the southpaw. While he’s 37 and will be looking to make his way back from a flexor tendon tear without surgery, Lee offers unmatched upside among the bounceback candidates on the free agent market.

It’s far from clear, of course, whether teams are willing at present to commit big dollars to Lee. Certainly, they’ll want to learn more about his progress and prognosis. But the report does make clear that there’ll be no shortage of teams lined up to pursue Lee if he shows promise of returning to the form that made him one of the game’s best pitchers well into his mid-30s.

Zobrist Hopes To Decide This Week; “Focused On” Mets, Nats, Giants

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Few free agents have generated as much buzz as Ben Zobrist this offseason, and yesterday’s news suggests he could be close to a decision about his new team.  Here’s the latest…

  • A decision is expected within the next 48 hours, Morosi tweets.
  • It “appears” that Zobrist would prefer to be installed at second base, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. That would appear to suggest that Washington and New York present better fits than do the Giants.
  • Zobrist has expressed interest in holding down a somewhat regular job at one position, Mets AGM John Ricco told reporters, including Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). New York could plug him in as the more-or-less everyday second baseman, of course. The club met with his agents again today in what could be the final meeting between the sides, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo also noted in his media session that he’d see Zobrist mostly as a second baseman in Washington, as Mark Zuckerman of CSNmidatlantic tweets. Rizzo did add that he also likes that Zobrist could contribute in the outfield and “spoke glowingly” of the free agent.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Zobrist would like to make a decision by the time the Winter Meetings conclude on Thursday. Zobrist is currently focused on the Mets, Nationals and Giants, according to Rosenthal, who says it’d be difficult at this point for the Dodgers to pry him away from one of those clubs.

Earlier Updates

  • The Dodgers are the mystery fourth team in the Zobrist race, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.  Los Angeles joins the Mets, Nationals and Giants as the teams who are apparently the deepest in pursuit of the veteran.  All parties seem to understand it will require a four-year contract to land Zobrist at this point.  Despite Zobrist’s versatility, there isn’t as obvious a position for him in L.A. as the other cities, Heyman notes, especially since Chase Utley just re-signed with the club to join the second base mix.  Then again, Andrew Friedman knows all about how to creatively deploy Zobrist from their days together in Tampa Bay.
  • The Braves were a somewhat surprising bidder for Zobrist’s services, though David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution outlines why the team feels the 34-year-old is a fit for a seemingly rebuilding club.  Firstly, the Braves don’t intend to be in a rebuild stage for long, as they’re still targeting 2017 (and the opening of their new ballpark) for a return to contention.  Moving Shelby Miller for a package of players could address enough needs that it would free up payroll room to ink Zobrist, possibly on a backloaded contract.  While the Braves aren’t as close to contending as Zobrist’s other suitors, O’Brien points out that Atlanta is within four hours of Zobrist’s home in Tennessee.

Royals Re-Sign Chris Young

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5:06pm: Kansas City has announced the signing. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com tweets the annual breakdown of the contract, which promises Young $4.25MM in 2016, $5.75MM for the following year, and a $1.5MM buyout on a $8MM mutual option for 2018.

9:10am: Young will earn about $11.75MM over the life of the two-year deal, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star hears that it’s slightly less: an $11.5MM total over two years (Twitter link).

DEC. 7, 8:15am: Young does indeed have a deal with the Royals, pending a physical, reports MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter), who adds that Young is in Kansas City at the moment, presumably to take said physical examination.

DEC. 6: The Royals are close to re-signing pitcher Chris Young to a two-year deal, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The deal is likely to be worth around $10MM to $11MM, and it’s likely to be completed by the close of the Winter Meetings. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently reported that it was just “a matter of timing” before Young and the Royals came to terms.

Chris Young

It appears that, as expected, Young’s new deal will be considerably more lucrative than the $675K contract to which he agreed before last season. In the last two seasons, Young has very effective, posting ERAs well below four and pitching a total of almost 300 innings split between the bullpen and the rotation in Seattle and Kansas City.

Young is now 36, and there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of his prospects for future success — he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with mediocre peripherals and very little in the way of velocity. Those reasons existed before each of the last two seasons too, however, and Young succeeded despite them. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron broke down Young’s success in a fascinating column earlier this year, noting that Young has demonstrated an ability to repeat a BABIP that is drastically better than the league average due to his extreme fly-ball tendencies and uncanny ability to induce weak contact.

If the Royals believe in his ability to continue to be useful and versatile, a salary of about $5MM per season does not seem like an unreasonable price to pay. And considering the fact that Kansas City plays in one of the American League’s most expansive ball parks and typically prioritizes outfield defense — Lorenzo Cain is among the game’s best, though they’ll have a significant defensive hole to fill if Alex Gordon leaves — Young’s skill set seems perfectly tailored to succeed with the Royals. It remains to be seen just how many innings Young can handle in a season — the 165 he threw for Seattle in 2014 were his most since 2007, and he’s never even reached 180 — but for the reported price, Young doesn’t need to log 200+ innings in order to more than justify his salary.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Kris Bryant, Maikel Franco File Service Time Grievances

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A pair of outstanding rookie third basemen, Kris Bryant of the Cubs and Maikel Franco of the Phillis, have filed grievances claiming that their service time was manipulated in an effort to delay their future entry onto the free agent market, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports.

No shortage of attention will be paid to these cases. Bryant, of course, won the National League’s Rookie of the Year award, while Franco might have staked his own claim to that title had he not been injured late in the year. In that regard, then, the stakes are high for the players and teams; if a panel were to award additional service time, both would stand to qualify one year earlier for free agency.

Most important of all, however is the heightened relevance of the matter with collective bargaining talks set to begin in earnest. The matter of whether, when, and why top young players are brought up to the majors — and thus begin accruing credit for time spent on an active MLB roster — has long seemed an area ripe for consideration (if not acrimony) between the league and the player’s association.

For those unfamiliar with how things work, teams have a powerful incentive to hold back talented young players — even those they believe to be ready for the majors — to slow their march towards free agency. A less powerful, but also relevant incentive exists to keep a player down long enough to prevent them from qualifying for “Super Two” arbitration status.

A player only accrues a full season of MLB service when he reaches 172 days on the active roster (that includes off days), and it takes six full seasons of service time to reach free agency. As a practical matter, then, teams can milk nearly seven years of control over players if they just keep them in the minors for a few weeks at the start of the year.

Indeed, that’s exactly what happened with Bryant and Franco, who accrued 171 and 170 days of service last year, respectively. While there were surely legitimate baseball reasons that also supported the decisions to start those players in the minors, it’s not hard to see what line of argument their agents will pursue.

Of course, many such matters are resolved before they get to a hearing, though in these cases it would seem a creative arrangement would be necessary. It will be most interesting to see how things proceed between the larger entities with stakes in the pair of disputes: MLB and the MLBPA. The sides have about a year to negotiate a new CBA, and the service-time issue presents not only a point of possible contention, but also rather a tricky problem to solve in practice even if agreement on a general direction can be found. While bargaining could certainly override any precedent struck in a hypothetical grievance, a victory in front of an arbitration panel would transfer leverage to one side or the other.

Jonathan Papelbon Files Grievance Against Nationals

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DEC. 7: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Nationals on Papelbon’s behalf two days after the suspension was issued. The team considered the filing to be “obligatory,” and Rosenthal adds that it will be addressed this spring.

DEC. 6: Nationals closer Jonathan Papelbon has filed a grievance against the Nationals challenging the team’s decision to impose a suspension without pay for the final four games of the 2015 season, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. Papelbon received the ban for his role in a dugout scuffle with star outfielder Bryce Harper.

Per the report, Papelbon and his representatives brought the action based on the position that the team lacked precedent for withholding Papelbon’s pay in relation to the suspension. Clearly, the dispute is about much more than the dollars involved, as those four games represented just over 2% (about $300K) of Papelbon’s $13MM total salary on the year.

The degree of ongoing animus between player and team remains unclear. But if nothing else the matter also raises issues of the broader relations between teams and players under the collective bargaining agreement. Those considerations are surely heightened given that negotiations on a new CBA are set to take place over the coming year.

Article XII of the CBA addresses disciplinary matters, providing that clubs have the authority to impose “disciplinary action for just cause.” While that section does not specifically authorize or forbid certain forms of punishment, it does contemplate both fines and suspensions resulting in lost salary (in providing that a team must make a player “whole” if the decision is overturned). A player subject to disciplinary action may challenge it through a grievance proceeding before an arbitral panel, which in turn must assess whether “just cause” existed for the punishment that was meted out.

The embattled reliever remains under contract in D.C. next year for $11MM, as part of the agreement he reached with the club when he was traded from the Phillies in July. He’s probably worth every penny as a player, as he continues to put up strong results at the back of the pen, but his issues off of the mound continue to mount.

Relations between Papelbon and the Nats were surely already strained, though we’ve heard varying accounts of the extent to which conciliation may be possible. It certainly seems likely that this dispute will only ratchet up tensions. Washington has, of course, been rumored to be weighing a trade of the veteran, though the market for his services remains rather cloudy.

Bradford adds that there’s no date for a hearing at present. It’s unclear whether there will be any possibility of negotiations to forestall further airing of the unfortunate matter.

Mariners Acquire Miley, Aro In Exchange For Smith, Elias

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An exceptionally busy offseason for Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto continued on Monday, as the Mariners acquired left-hander Wade Miley and right-handed reliever Jonathan Aro from the Red Sox in exchange for lefty Roenis Elias and right-handed reliever Carson Smith. Both teams have formally announced the trade.

Wade Miley

Miley, 29, has a long history with Dipoto, who not only was a consultant with the Red Sox after electing to leave his job with the Angels this summer but also served as the Diamondbacks’ scouting director when Miley was drafted back in 2008. Miley is controlled for at least two more seasons for a total of $15.25MM, and his contract also contains a $12MM club option for the 2018 season. He’ll give the Mariners a reasonably priced arm to slot into the rotation behind Felix Hernandez alongside Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.

Miley’s first season with Boston got off to a slow start, but the lefty rebounded from a ghastly 8.62 April ERA to 4.10 ERA with a 137-to-58 K/BB ratio across his final 178 innings of the 2015 season. Miley has been a healthy and consistent innings eater dating back to his sophomore season in 2012, averaging 198 innings of 3.92 ERA ball per year despite spending three years with the hitter-friendly Chase Field as his home park and a fourth season in the American League East. One can imagine that the move to the spacious Safeco Field will benefit Miley considerably.

Aro, 25, posted outstanding numbers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015 and ultimately made his big league debut. He logged a 3.04 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 in 74 minor league innings. He yielded eight runs in 10 1/3 Major League innings and averaged 92.5 mph on his fastball while posting an eight-to-four K/BB ratio. MLB.com ranked Aro 26th among Boston farmhands, noting that his fastball features some sink and can touch 95 mph. He has a slider and changeup as well, with the former grading as at least average. Their scouting report feels he can pitch successfully in multiple-inning relief stints and calls Aro “durable.”

Seattle’s decision to part with Smith comes as somewhat of a surprise. The 26-year-old delivered 70 brilliant innings of relief, pitching to a 2.31 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and an exceptional 64.8 percent ground-ball rate. Smith ranked sixth among qualified relievers in ground-ball rate and struck out a greater number of batters than nearly any pitcher on the top 30 in that regard. He’s controllable for another five seasons and will give president of baseball operation Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox another elite relief arm to pair with the likes of Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara in the late innings.

Carson Smith

The Red Sox will also pick up a left-hander with significant big league experience in the form of Elias. The 27-year-old has spent the past two seasons mostly at the big league level, logging a 3.97 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 44.9 percent ground-ball rate. Elias has yielded an unspectacular .255/.333/.411 batting line to right-handed hitters but dominated lefties, holding same-handed batters to a .218/.304/.332 clip. His control against lefties could stand to improve a bit, but he’s a generally useful weapon against them and could conceivably be tougher if shifted to a bullpen role, where he could throw harder in shorter stints.

A bullpen slot could be his best shot at cracking the roster next spring, as an immediate spot in the Boston rotation doesn’t seem too likely. The Red Sox currently have David Price, Clay Buchholz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly, to say nothing of highly regarded left-handers Henry Owens and Brian Johnson more or less ready for big league action.

Of course, Elias could simply be rotation depth for the Red Sox in the event that they trade another arm or two, or he could be flipped to another club himself. Earlier this offseason, the Marlins were said to have some interest in him when discussing potential Marcell Ozuna deals (though they were looking for considerably more than Elias alone in exchange for Ozuna). Elias is controllable through the 2020 season and won’t be arbitration eligible until at least the 2017-18 offseason.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX reported earlier this afternoon that the two sides were making progress on a deal that would send Miley to Seattle. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reported the trade was in place (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that Aro, Elias and Smith were involved.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers’ Deal For Chapman Not Yet Complete

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2:33pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that the Reds are now telling other clubs no trade for Chapman has been agreed upon. Stark certainly implies that the Dodgers believed a trade to be done, adding: “I don’t think [the] Dodgers agree.”

2:13pm: The trade is not yet finished, according to MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (links to Twitter). Not only that, but Sheldon hears that there are other clubs involved who could swoop in and acquire Chapman at the last minute.

11:11am: Peraza’s name did indeed come up in talks between the Dodgers and Reds, tweets Heyman, although he’s yet to confirm if Peraza is indeed heading to Cincinnati in the deal. If that’s the case, he notes, the club could escalate its efforts to deal Brandon Phillips.

9:33am: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that none of Julio Urias, Corey Seager or Jose De Leon are headed to the Reds in the trade. The Dodgers, though, have plenty of other enticing prospects in their ranks, notably including right-hander Grant Holmes and infielder Jose Peraza as fellow top 100 types (though those names are my own speculation).

9:27am: The Dodgers have struck a deal to acquire one of the game’s most elite bullpen arms, Aroldis Chapman, from the Reds in exchange for a pair of prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers’ plan is to keep both Chapman and Kenley Jansen, who instantly team to become one of the game’s most dominant late-inning duos (if not the most dominant late-inning duo). The trade is pending medical reviews.

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Chapman, 27, enjoyed yet another incredible season in 2015, working to a 1.63 ERA with 15.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. Over the past four seasons in Cincinnati, the Cuban-born phenom has delivered an astounding 1.90 ERA while averaging 16.1 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings to go along with an average of 36 saves per season. Chapman, of course, is known for his blistering fastball; the left-hander averaged 100.3 mph on his heater in 2014 and followed that up with a similarly incredulous 99.5 mph average this past season.

The Dodgers recently lost on on retaining Zack Greinke, when the division-rival Diamondbacks made an absolutely stunning push at the eleventh hour and signed him for an unprecedented six-year, $206.5MM sum. The following day, one of L.A.’s fallback plans, Jeff Samardzija, landed a five-year, $90MM contract with yet another division rival, the Giants. Some, then, may consider this move to be somewhat reactionary in nature, though the Dodgers’ interest in Chapman predates both of their division rivals’ acquisitions. Los Angeles, too, has since added to its rotation, bringing in Hisashi Iwakuma on a reported three-year, $45MM contract.

While the sting of losing Greinke is notable, adding Chapman to pair with Jansen will significantly shorten the necessary workload for most of the Dodgers’ rotation, as the team now boasts a pair of arms — one left-handed and one right-handed — that routinely average more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings.

Chapman, like Jansen, is a free agent following the 2016 season, making him a one-year rental, at least for the time being. While both relievers are one characteristically strong season away from a strong case to break Jonathan Papelbon’s record four-year, $50MM contract for a reliever, if there’s any club that has the financial firepower to persuade one of those arms to forego free agency in lieu of an early contract extension, it’s the Dodgers. Should both pitchers reach the open market next winter, I’d wager that both will be easy calls to receive and reject the qualifying offer in search of that record-setting deal. That scenario would set the Dodgers up to acquire a pair of compensatory picks at the end of the first round in the 2017 draft.

Even with Chapman on board, one would imagine that the highly active Dodgers will still be open to adding further relief help. And, of course, more rotation stability will still be an area of focus for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the rest of the team’s front office. Behind Clayton Kershaw and the recently added Iwakuma (assuming his deal is finalized), the Dodgers currently figure to deploy Brett Anderson, Alex Wood and Mike Bolsinger. Hyun-ji Ryu’s arm is a question mark after missing 2015 due to shoulder injuries, and it’s not clear when, exactly Brandon McCarthy will be ready to return from Tommy John surgery.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Have Made Extension Offer To Jake Odorizzi

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The Rays have offered right-hander Jake Odorizzi a contract extension, agent Jason Wood confirms to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4). Topkin notes that the timing of the offer is interesting, because Odorizzi could also be part of trade talks with the Cubs as the Rays search for a hitter. (Presumably, if a contract is agreed to between the two sides, Odorizzi would want assurance that he won’t immediately be traded.)

Wood called Tampa Bay’s offer a “very nice initial offer,” says Topkin, adding that the agent said there are “lots of reasons” to continue the dialogue. Wood says there’s mutual interest and is working on a counter-offer for the Rays, whose initial offer is believed to include multiple option years, per Topkin. That’s been standard operating procedure for the Rays over the years, who locked up Evan Longoria, Matt Moore and Chris Archer to contracts that each include at least two option seasons early in each player’s career (albeit, earlier in their respective careers than Odorizzi is at present).

Odorizzi, 26 in March, has pitched well for the Rays in each of the past two seasons, though he missed some time in 2015 due to an oblique strain and was thus limited to 169 1/3 innings. Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 91 mph with his fastball, but he’s shown an ability to pick up strikeouts at an above-average clip nonetheless. Over his past 337 1/3 innings (2014-15), Odorizzi has a 3.74 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. A pronounced fly-ball pitcher, Odorizzi does have a rather low 33.5 percent ground-ball rate in that time.

Originally acquired from the Royals in the James Shields/Wil Myers trade (though I submit that the trade should be referred to as the Wade Davis/Jake Odorizzi swap, personally), Odorizzi is not yet arbitration eligible and won’t be until next offseason. He’s controllable for another four years, so it stands to reason that the Rays would like to secure a pair of free agent years (if not more) in exchange for committing to him at this juncture.

Assuming he maintains his current trajectory, Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons could command as much as $20-25MM. And, as the free-agent market is beginning to show, the going rate for second- and even third starters is escalating closer to $20MM than ever before. Clearly, the Rays wouldn’t be interested in guaranteeing full market value this far in advance (no team would), so Wood and Odorizzi would have to make some form of concessions — probably in the overall cost the arbitration years and in the annual value of the free-agent seasons.

Were Odorizzi to agree to a long-term contract, his new deal would somewhat reset the market for pitchers in his service class. The only extension for a starting pitcher with between two and three years of service time in recent seasons was Corey Kluber’s five-year, $38.5MM deal last winter, but Kluber was noticeably older than Odorizzi and also coming off a Cy Young campaign, making his situation rather unique. Previous deals for pitchers in this service class (e.g. Yovani Gallardo, Derek Holland) were in the five-year, $30MM range, but those contracts are five years old now. Gio Gonazalez’s five-year, $42MM deal from 2012 somewhat surprisingly stands as the record for starters with between two and three years of service. It seems unlikely that the Rays would be keen on shelling out any sort of record deal for this service class, especially considering that one of the years in question is a pre-arbitration year (Gonzalez had Super Two status working in his favor).

A four-year pact with an option would lock in Odorizzi’s arbitration seasons and give the Rays an extra year of club control in exchange for delaying free agency by one season. That deal would still allow Odorizzi to hit the open market entering his age-31 season, though Tampa Bay typically seems to strive for multiple option years in these days.

Cubs To Re-Sign Trevor Cahill

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11:55am: Cahill will receive a one-year, $4.25MM contract from the Cubs, according to Olney (Twitter link). ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers adds that while Cahill is definitely in the bullpen for now, the Cubs told Cahill he could be stretched out for rotation work should the need arise (Twitter link).

11:46am: The Cubs have agreed to re-sign right-hander Trevor Cahill, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The John Boggs client was said within the past hour to be nearing a deal with an unreported club.

Still just 27 years of age (28 in March), Cahill enjoyed a renaissance in the bullpen after signing a minor league deal with the Cubs midway through the season. While the D-backs, Braves and Dodgers all seemingly gave up on him in various ways last season, Chicago received 17 brilliant innings of relief from the former starter in a relief role down the stretch. Cahill yielded just four runs in those 17 innings and recorded an outstanding 22-to-5 K/BB ratio to go along with an as-always excellent ground-ball rate: 61.8 percent. He also pitched 5 1/3 innings in the postseason, allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts (3.38 ERA).

While Boggs recently told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that Cahill’s preference was to return to a rotation, it seems likely that he’ll continue to be used out of manager Joe Maddon’s bullpen with the Cubs. Chicago already has Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel as rotation options, and further additions to the starting mix shouldn’t be entirely ruled out. If the bullpen is indeed the landing spot for Cahill, he will re-join the likes of Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez and Travis Wood in the team’s relief corps.

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