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Latest On Shelby Miller

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We’ve heard a wide variety of rumors regarding trade interest and possible proposals for Braves righty Shelby Miller. While it seems that the Braves remain more than willing to move him in the right scenario, the club is nevertheless holding firm on its asking price, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).

Despite reportedly widespread interest, it appears that no team has stepped up its bid to a sufficiently enticing level in this relatively early stage of the offseason. That makes it increasingly likely that the 25-year-old will open the season in Atlanta, per Crasnick, though obviously there’s ample time remaining to find a match.

One team said to have interest in Miller is the Cubs, with the Braves reportedly intrigued in turn by young outfielder Jorge Soler. But that’s not a perfect fit, Crasnick suggests (links to Twitter), because Atlanta has committed itself to Nick Markakis and Hector Olivera in the corner outfield for the next several seasons. Of course, given Atlanta’s oft-demonstrated penchant for shifting assets to find value and add controllable assets that it believes in, it would still seem plausible that something could be arranged if the affinity for Soler is as strong as has been suggested.

Meanwhile, per the report, Chicago “would prefer” to center a deal around Javier Baez or Starlin Castro. Both are probably capable of playing short, second, or third, making them good potential matches (on paper, at least) with Atlanta’s long-term needs in the infield. Nevertheless, Crasnick says it’s “not an ideal fit from either side,” seemingly suggesting that the Braves aren’t that enticed by those particular young infielders.

Braves Non-Tender Mike Minor

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TODAY: Atlanta has confirmed in an announcement that both Minor and Ciriaco were non-tendered yesterday, with the remainder of their arb-eligible players being tendered contracts.

YESTERDAY, 8:25pm: David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that while Minor is likely to be non-tendered, GM John Coppolella said at 9:20pm ET that a final decision has not yet been reached.

8:19pm: The Braves will non-tender left-hander Mike Minor and infielder Pedro Ciriaco, reports MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Minor’s status has been in limbo as reported setbacks in the southpaw’s recovery from shoulder surgery have left his recovery timeline uncertain, making his expected $5.6MM salary something of a risk for Atlanta.

Minor has battled through a pair of lost seasons, missing the entire 2015 campaign and also battling through injuries in 2014 en route to a 4.77 ERA in 145 1/3 innings. However, when healthy, the former No. 7 overall draft pick had proved himself capable big league starter, working to a combined 3.72 ERA (3.76 FIP) in a span of 466 2/3 innings from 2011-13.

Minor isn’t a power arm, sitting at an average of about 90.5 mph even when healthy, but he’s still averaged just under eight strikeouts per nine innings when healthy while displaying above-average control. The type of contract he signs — and the date on which he signs it — will be determined in large part by when he’s able to again take the mound and pitch in competitive games.

Having spent the entire season on the Major League disabled list, Minor accrued a full year of service in 2015, leaving him with four years, 138 days of service time. As such, a team that elects to sign him will have control of him not only in 2016 but also in 2017, should it feel comfortable going through the arbitration process with him next winter.

2015-16 American League Non-Tenders

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Major League clubs have until 11pm CT tonight to tender contracts to players for the 2016 season. Remember that you can track all of the action using MLBTR’s Non-Tender tracker, and we offer a full list of non-tender candidates (in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes). Also important for reference is the set of arbitration salary projections from MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz.

We’ll run down the list of American League non-tenders here, and update it as reports come in.

  • According to a club announcement this morning, the Yankees non-tendered righty Domingo German last night. By parting with the pre-arb-eligible hurler, New York cleared one open spot on its 40-man.
  • The Rangers announced that they won’t tender contracts to righty Nick Tepesch or outfielder James Jones. Neither player was arbitration eligible, but the decisions clear two 40-man roster spots. Tepesch missed the 2015 season battling shoulder injuries. Jones was recently acquired in a trade with the Mariners, though the main component of that deal for the Rangers was probably right-hander Tom Wilhelmsen. Texas hopes to retain both on minor league contracts, tweets the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson.
  • The Blue Jays have non-tendered backup catcher Josh Thole and tendered the rest of their players, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter). Thole has served primarily as R.A. Dickey’s personal catcher due to his familiarity with the knuckleball for much of his time with the Blue Jays.
  • Outfielder David Lough has also been non-tendered by the Orioles, the club announced. Lough hit just .201/.241/.313 with the Orioles in 144 plate appearances this season but has a reputation as a good defensive outfielder in the corners and traditionally hit righties well prior to this season.
  • The White Sox have non-tendered Tyler Flowers and Jacob Turner. More on that decision here.
  • The Orioles will non-tender infielder Paul Janish, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The defensively gifted journeyman was projected to earn a modest $600K in arbitration next season.

Earlier Updates

  • Righty Al Alburquerque will be non-tendered by the Tigers, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets. The 29-year-old was projected to earn only $2.1MM, and Detroit could use pen depth, but it appears that the club decided to move on after watching the veteran contribute 62 innings of 4.21 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 last year.
  • The Athletics have announced that first baseman Ike Davis will not be tendered a contract, meaning he’ll become a free agent. The veteran was entering his final year of control at a $3.8MM projected salary. His non-tender was widely expected after a tough 2015 season, but became assured when the club swung a deal earlier today for his replacement.

Astros To Non-Tender Chris Carter

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The Astros will non-tender first baseman/DH Chris Carter, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Carter, who was a Super Two last year, was projected by MLBTR to earn $5.6MM.

We had heard yesterday that Houston would only tender Carter a contract if it felt he could be traded, and that obviously did not prove to be the case. The Astros will presumably rely upon Evan Gattis as its primary DH, with players like Jon Singleton and prospect A.J. Reed potentially factoring in at first, though some kind of outside addition can’t be ruled out.

Carter, 28, is a huge source of power, with 90 home runs over the last three years. He’s put up a productive .218/.312/.459 slash over that span, indicating that this immense pop makes up for an equally monumental strikeout rate.

But that still leaves unaddressed the matter of defense, and that’s just not an area where Carter shines. He is more or less unplayable in the outfield, and also hasn’t drawn very good reviews at first, either. As a bat-only player, the overall production record just wasn’t quite good enough — it seems — to support his projected earning capacity.

Pirates Non-Tender Pedro Alvarez

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The Pirates announced that they have elected not to tender contracts to first baseman Pedro Alvarez and outfielder Jaff Decker for the 2016 season. The rest of the team’s arbitration eligible players, aside from Alvarez, have been tendered contracts. Alvarez had been projected to receive an $8.1MM salary next season, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Pedro Alvarez

Alvarez, the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, adds an intriguing name to the free-agent market for teams in search of power. He’s crushed 111 homers over the past four seasons (11th in all of Major League Baseball) while hitting .238/.310/.456. That, on the surface, would seem to make Alvarez a worthy tender, but Alvarez comes with a number of less appealing factors as well.

Alvarez broke into the league as a third baseman, but the Pirates moved the 6’3″, 250-pounder across the diamond to first base in 2014 due to defensive issues. While Alvarez readily accepted his new role, he proved to be a liability at first base as well. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating pegged Alvarez at -14 runs in 906 innings this season, and his 23 errors tied him for third in all of baseball at any position despite the fact that he had the fewest defensive innings played of any player in the top 30 of that dubious list.

Additionally, Alvarez has long struggled against left-handed pitching. He hit .258/.292/.419 against lefties in 2015, though he was limited to 65 plate appearances versus same-handed pitchers. Those limitations were placed on Alvarez with good reason; he’s a lifetime .203/.270/.332 batter against fellow lefties. On the flip side of the equation, Alvarez has proven to be a formidable force against right-handed pitchers. He’s a .246./320/.473 hitter against righties in his career with 114 of his 131 homers coming while holding the platoon advantage.

The Pirates certainly made an effort to trade Alvarez, tweets Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, but were simply unable to find a willing taker. Considering the fact that the still-28-year-old Alvarez (29 in February) averages a home run every 19 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, he should draw considerable interest from American League clubs looking for a first baseman/designated hitter that can be platooned with a potent right-handed bat. Clubs like the Orioles and Indians stand out as possible fits, while the Rays and White Sox could make some sense depending on their ability to move James Loney and Adam LaRoche, respectively.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Second Baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez Leaves Cuba, Seeks MLB Deal

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One of the top players in Cuba, second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez, has left the island and will seek a Major League contract, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. Badler ranked Fernandez, 27, as the No. 3 player in Cuba back in April.

Jose Miguel Fernandez

Because of his age and professional experience in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, Fernandez will be exempt from international bonus pools and free to sign a Major League contract for any amount of years and dollars. An exact timeframe is impossible to peg, as other Cuban free agents have demonstrated in the past. Fernandez first needs to establish residency in a different country and then be cleared by Major League Baseball before he’s eligible to sign. Badler expresses doubt that all of those steps will happen before Opening Day 2016.

Badler calls the 5’10”, 185-pound Fernandez MLB-ready, praising his short, quick left-handed stroke and excellent plate discipline. However, it’s been roughly a year since Fernandez saw in-game action, as he was suspended by the league for previously trying and (clearly) failing to defect early in the 2014-15 campaign. Last winter, Kiley McDaniel said on a Fangraphs podcast that Fernandez was being heavily guarded by police in Cuba after his failed attempt to defect.

Fernandez’s contact skills and keen eye are his best tools, as Badler notes that he has below-average power, isn’t particularly fleet of foot and is adequate, but not exceptional at second base from a defensive standpoint. He’s played third base in the past but doesn’t quite have the arm strength to profile at that position, Badler adds. On the flip side, Fernandez’s knack for making contact is astounding; he’s struck out just 113 times in 2,580 career plate appearances in Serie Nacional — a rate of just 4.3 percent. That number is even more impressive when juxtaposed with his 10.1 percent walk rate (263 walks in those 2,580 PAs). All told, Fernandez is a .319/.403/.423 hitter in his Cuban career, not including international tournaments like the 2013 World Baseball Classic, where he batted .524/.545/.667 in 21 at-bat without striking out, per Badler.

While Fernandez may not have the power or speed required to give him superstar upside, he’s a prime-aged, Major League ready second base option that seems capable of posting a strong OBP and hitting for a solid average in the Majors. That’s an appealing player even if he’s not an All-Star in the making, and clubs with deficiencies at second base — or, perhaps, teams that lose a second baseman to injury in Spring Training — figure to show interest in Fernandez if and when he is declared a free agent by the league.

Photo courtesy of Alyson Boyer Rode.

Marlins To Non-Tender Henderson Alvarez

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The Marlins will non-tender right-hander Henderson Alvarez — their Opening Day starter from this past season — sources tell Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).

Henderson Alvarez

The decision comes as somewhat of a surprise but seemingly indicates that the Marlins aren’t fully convinced that Alvarez will be able to contribute in 2016 as he recovers from right shoulder surgery that he underwent back in late July. Indications in September were that the Marlins felt comfortable tendering Alvarez, who projected to earn $4MM this year (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), a contract for the 2016 season. However, recent reports have suggested that the team was no longer certain that would be the case, as Alvarez’s injury was expected to keep him out at least into the first month of the season.

Despite questions surrounding the health of his shoulder, Alvarez figures to draw widespread interest on the free-agent market. He’s still just 25 years of age (26 in April) and pitched to a sparkling 2.98 ERA with 5.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate from 2013-14 when healthy in Miami (including a a no-hitter on the final day of the season in 2013).

Alvarez has just over four years of big league service under his belt, meaning that any club which signs him to a big league deal will be able to control him for not only the 2016 season but also the 2017 campaign, via the arbitration process. Alvarez has never been one to miss many bats, but he’s a well-regarded arm that could certainly slot into the middle of a big league rotation, so long as his shoulder allows him to do so.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Royals Non-Tender Greg Holland

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The Royals announced that they have non-tendered injured closer Greg Holland as well as infielder Orlando Calixte (Twitter link). Holland, who would have been arbitration eligible for the final time this winter and came with a projected $11.3MM price tag, will enter the free-agent pool.

It’s been known for quite some time that the Royals would non-tender Holland, who underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year and missed the end of the season. Kansas City has expressed interest in working out a two-year contract that would allow the team to retain Holland, who was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball when healthy. Any contract would, of course, backload most of the salary into the second year of the deal, as Holland will almost certainly not take the mound in 2016 as he recovers from the operation.

Though it was a well-known possible outcome, the non-tender is nonetheless notable; due to the fact that the Royals weren’t able to strike up a two-year pact with Holland in advance of tonight’s deadline, he and agent Scott Boras will now have the opportunity to negotiate with all 29 other clubs to see if a more lucrative offer is available on the open market.

Greinke Likely To Decide Between Giants, Dodgers This Week

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DEC. 2: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that while Greinke’s preference is a six-year deal at an AAV north of Price, he’s also open to a five-year pact at a considerably higher AAV than he’d receive on a six-year contract.

DEC. 111:15pm: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that a source close to the situation says Greinke will decide within the next 48 hours. Bowden adds that he expects Greinke to land a six-year deal worth $32MM annually, which would mean a $192MM total investment.

5:08pm: News of David Price’s deal with the Red Sox is still fresh in the air, but another major decision may be relatively close, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Zack Greinke could decide on his next contract “soon,” labeling it a matter of Dodgers vs. Giants, with a five- to six-year deal being the expectation. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds (Twitter link) that a Greinke decision is expected this week, noting that he, too, hears the Dodgers and Giants stand alone as the finalists. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Greinke is seeking an AAV that exceeds Price, so he could come in at $31.5MM to $32MM annually.

Greinke, like Price, finished runner-up in his league’s Cy Young voting this season despite the best single-season ERA mark by a qualified pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995. He’s spent the past three seasons in L.A., working to a combined 2.30 ERA across 602 2/3 innings. Recently, Crasnick reported that the market for Greinke was “quietly heating up,” listing San Francisco and Los Angeles as the primary teams that were said to be seeking clarity in their pursuit of Greinke.

The fact that two division rivals are the top suitors for Greinke must be music to the ears of both the pitchers and his representatives at Excel Sports Management. However many wins either teams feels that Greinke can add to their future totals, the view could be made that failing to sign him will instead add those wins to the closest rival’s total, possibly increasing each team’s willingness to spend.

Both clubs are known to be seriously interested in Greinke, but Dodgers ownership partner Magic Johnson told Yahoo’s Tim Brown today that Greinke was the team’s “No. 1 priority” this offseason (Twitter link).

Orioles Acquire Mark Trumbo, C.J. Riefenhauser For Steve Clevenger

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The Orioles don’t yet know whether Chris Davis will return to Baltimore, but they have a potential replacement on the roster now in the event that he signs elsewhere, as the team has announced the acquisition of Mark Trumbo and left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser from the Mariners in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger.

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Trumbo, 30 in January, provides insurance in the event that Davis does not return and can be an option in left field or at DH in the event that Davis is re-signed. Alternatively, the Orioles could deploy Trumbo at first base for his final season of club control and use Davis primarily in the corner outfield in 2016 before shifting him back to first base when Trumbo reaches free agency next winter.

Trumbo averaged 32 homers per season from 2011-13 with the Angels and D-backs, but injuries slowed him in 2014, and his power output declined a bit in 2015. In total, he’s a career .250/.300/.458 hitter with 30-homer power that is coming off a .262/.319/.449 season split between Arizona and Seattle. This marks the second time in the past three years that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has traded Trumbo, as he sent him to Arizona in a three-team deal that netted Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago while serving as GM of the Angels.

From a defensive standpoint, Trumbo is limited. While he has experience at third base, in the corner outfield and at first base, he’s below average at the hot corner and in the outfield. While that limitation and his low on-base numbers suppress Trumbo’s value, he’s still a legitimate source of right-handed power that can handle first base. The Mariners don’t value that skill set at Trumbo’s projected $9.1MM salary, but he can certainly help the Orioles next season, and a move out of Safeco Field could benefit his overall production.

Riefenhauser, a 25-year-old southpaw, was acquired earlier in the winter in the trade that also delivered Nate Karns from the Rays, but will apparently never suit up for Seattle. Riefenhauser has yet to do much of use in the big leagues (6.30 ERA in 20 innings), but has put up excellent minor league numbers. In 113 innings at the Triple-A level, Riefenhauser has a 2.15 ERA to go along with averages of 8.7 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings pitched.

The 29-year-old Clevenger gives the Mariners a left-handed-hitting complement to Chris Iannetta and makes it easier for the club to give Mike Zunino some further development time at Triple-A. Clevenger, who also has experience at first base and third base, batted .287/.314/.426 with a pair of homers in 105 plate appearances in Baltimore last season. He’s been shuffled between the Majors and minors with the Cubs and Orioles over the past four seasons due primarily to questions about his defense, as he doesn’t have much to prove at the plate in Triple-A. The former seventh-round pick has never shown a great deal of power but consistently hits for average and gets on base at the top minor league level, where he’s a lifetime .310/.372/.413 hitter in 1061 plate appearances.

Clevenger is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to stick with the Major League club out of Spring Training in 2016. While he was projected to split time with Caleb Joseph behind the plate for the Orioles in 2016, a wrench was thrown into those plans when Matt Wieters accepted a qualifying offer. With Wieters and Joseph now slated to be the primary catching duo next season, Clevenger’s role with the team is uncertain.

The trade leaves the Mariners without a definitive answer at first base in 2016. With Trumbo now in Baltimore and Logan Morrison having been dealt to Tampa Bay in the aforementioned Riefenhauser trade, Seattle will likely look outside the organization to bring in a new first baseman. While some might speculate on the possibility of Davis — the man that could theoretically be replaced in Baltimore by Trumbo — Dipoto has operated primarily on the trade market to make his biggest additions thus far and has voiced a preference for that route to free agency. Considering the fact that Seattle has the top unprotected draft pick in 2016 (No. 11 overall), adding Davis would be more costly for the Mariners than any other club. None of that, of course, precludes a run at Davis, but it’s hard to envision him as the team’s top priority.

Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune first reported that a Trumbo-for-Clevenger swap was close. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports said an agreement was in place (Twitter link). Dutton and MLB.com’s Greg Johns said a second player was in the deal (Twitter links). Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweeted that Riefenhauser was the second player.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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