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Red Sox, Rich Hill In Agreement On Minor League Deal

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Today: The Red Sox and Rich Hill have formally agreed on a minor league deal, reports Ian Browne of MLB.com. The veteran will report to Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday.

August 15: The Red Sox and Rich Hill are close to finalizing a minor league contract, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI (X link). It’d be his fourth separate stint in Boston if he gets to the big leagues by the end of the season. Including minor league deals, it’ll be his eighth contract with the organization.

Those have spanned multiple front offices going as far back as 2010. Hill is a Boston-area native who is clearly comfortable with the organization. Staying close to home is appealing. Hill waited to sign until this late in the season in large part so he could coach his son’s Little League team in Milton, Massachusetts this spring.

While he won’t step directly onto the Sox roster, Hill could make a few appearances with Triple-A Worcester to get into game shape. It’d be a surprise if the Red Sox don’t call him up at some point before season’s end. Hill reportedly drew attention from the Yankees, Dodgers and Twins, among others, during his recent throwing sessions.

Boston is a sensible fit beyond the geographical connection. The Red Sox went into deadline season with questions about their rotation depth. They brought in James Paxton in a trade with the Dodgers. He only made it through three starts before suffering a partially torn right calf that’ll probably end his season. That temporarily left the Sox with a four-man rotation of Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck. The Sox are planning to reinstate Cooper Criswell from the virus-related injured list to start tomorrow against the Orioles. He’s likely to step into the fifth starter role, but he’d been working in relief for a couple weeks before going on the shelf. The Red Sox may want to keep a close eye on his pitch counts.

From the start of the season, the Sox’s rotation depth has been one of their biggest questions. They lost Lucas Giolito before the year started. Garrett Whitlock went down in April with an oblique issue. He hurt his elbow while building back up and underwent season-ending surgery. Houck, Crawford, Pivetta and Criswell all stepped up as the Sox had a surprisingly strong rotation for the first few months. They’ve had a much tougher time of late.

Red Sox starters have a 5.28 earned run average since the All-Star Break, a better mark only than that of the Angels, White Sox, Rockies and Rangers. Crawford and Pivetta have gotten battered by the home run ball. Houck’s strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff as he’s gotten to a career-high workload. Only Bello has maintained or improved upon his early-season production.

Hill isn’t going to single-handedly salvage the group. The 44-year-old southpaw turned in solid back-of-the-results from 2021-22. He had a tougher time last year, allowing a 5.41 ERA through 146 1/3 innings. Much of that came in a dismal 10 outings for the Padres after they acquired him at the deadline. Hill had a more reasonable 4.76 ERA in 22 starts for the Pirates before the trade. The Sox will hope they get something closer to last year’s first half version without Hill needing to work a full season. If he gets to the majors, he could potentially work as a tandem starter with Criswell or push the righty back into a multi-inning relief capacity.

It has been an atypical situation. Hill has floated the possibility of a late-season signing for a few years but hadn’t committed to it until last offseason. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo writes that the 19-year veteran declined major league offers from Texas, Pittsburgh and Oakland over the winter. Beyond the family considerations, he pointed to the opportunity to ensure he was joining a team that had a chance to compete for a playoff position. Boston is 2.5 games behind the Royals for the American League’s final Wild Card spot with six weeks to play.

Hill would be eligible for postseason play if the Sox qualify (assuming the contract is finalized shortly). That’s true regardless of whether he’s on the MLB roster by the end of the month. A player only needs to be in the organization at the start of September — not on the 40-man roster — to be eligible for the playoffs. The league office routinely allows players who were on minor league deals at the start of September to qualify for the playoffs as substitutes for another injured player.

Image courtesy of USA Today.

Rockies Release Elias Diaz, Promote Drew Romo

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3:10pm: The Rockies announced that Diaz has been given his unconditional release. He’s a free agent who can sign with any club at any point. Romo’s contract has indeed been selected from Triple-A Albuquerque in his place.

Colorado also reinstated left-hander Lucas Gilbreath from the 60-day injured list. A spot on the 40-man roster was already cleared by yesterday’s outright of Josh Rogers. Gilbreath has been out since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2023.

1:55pm: In place of Diaz, the Rockies are expected to select the contract of catching prospect Drew Romo, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He’ll presumably slot into the Rockies’ primary catching role down the stretch and audition for a potential long-term gig behind the plate in Denver.

1:45pm: The Rockies are releasing catcher Elias Diaz, whom they placed on outright waivers earlier this week, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. Once he’s cleared release waivers, he’ll be free to sign with any club. The new team would only owe Diaz the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster or injured list. The Rockies will be on the hook for the remainder of this season’s $6MM salary.

That Diaz is slated to be released is an indicator that no other club was willing to take on his remaining $1.45MM salary (plus the $50K fee for placing a waiver claim). Colorado could’ve simply kept Diaz on the roster and attempted to waive him again later this month when he was owed less money, but it seems they’ll instead part ways with the veteran backstop entirely, granting him extra time to settle in with a contending club down the stretch. Diaz had been in the final season of a three-year, $14.5MM contract with the Rockies and is a free agent at season’s end anyhow, so the move to release him appears to primarily be about affording him the ability to latch on with a contending club while also clearing time for a look at Romo.

Releasing Diaz now will naturally raise questions as to why the Rockies didn’t move Diaz for even a modest return at last month’s trade deadline. It’s a fair gripe on the surface, although it stands to reason that if Diaz went unclaimed when he’d cost other teams around $1.5MM in total, there probably wasn’t a robust trade market for him when he was owed more money and the Rockies were seeking prospect value in return.

It’s still plenty arguable that the Rox should’ve sold high on him at last year’s trade deadline or perhaps in the offseason, but the Rox instead added some modest pieces and entered this year with visions of a more competitive club than they’ve ultimately fielded.

Diaz, 33, is hitting .270/.315/.378 on the season. That’s a solid-looking line, particularly for a catcher, though metrics like wRC+ (80) and OPS+ (88) feel he’s been below-average at the plate after adjusting for the Rockies’ hitter-friendly home environment. Either of those marks is passable for a backstop with solid defensive grades, however, and Diaz is just that. He’s delivered markedly improved framing grades in 2024 and been credited with plus marks in Defensive Runs Saved (5) and Outs Above Average (5).

Diaz has never been a plus hitter outside of a strong 2018 showing with the Pirates, but he owns a .254/.306/.406 line over the past four seasons, during which he’s averaged 17 homers per 162 games played. He’s not an elite catcher but is a serviceable option who’s had his share of big league success and experience. At the very least, he’s an upgrade over the backup option for many postseason hopefuls. And as long as he signs with a new club on or before Aug. 31, he’ll be eligible for his new team’s postseason roster.

As for the 22-year-old Romo, he was the No. 35 overall pick by the Rockies back in 2020 and ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects as recently as the 2022-23 offseason. He’s considered to be a glove-first catcher but has shown more offense in the upper minors across the past two seasons, including a quality .297/.339/.499 batting line in a very hitter-friendly Albuquerque setting this season (103 wRC+).

Scouting reports at FanGraphs, Baseball America and other outlets praise the switch-hitting Romo as a plus defender with a plus arm but well below-average power. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen noted that Romo had some uncharacteristic throwing issues last year (19% caught-stealing rate), but he’s bounced back in a big way with a heartier 29% rate in 2024.

With Diaz released and fellow backstop Jacob Stallings also playing on an expiring contract, Romo ought to be given a full run as the team’s starting catcher. Colorado doesn’t have any other near-ready catching prospects — Hunter Goodman can catch some, but they’ve used him more in the outfield — and certainly doesn’t have another one with Romo’s defensive chops.

Romo and Goodman could potentially shoulder the workload behind the plate down the stretch, depending on what comes of Stallings, who’s hitting .266/.367/.457 in 216 plate appearances while playing on a one-year, $2MM contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Rox are comfortable with Goodman collecting more playing time behind the plate, they could make a similar move with Stallings to the one they’ve made with Diaz.

Tigers To Promote Jace Jung

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The Tigers are calling up top infield prospect Jace Jung from Triple-A Toledo, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. The 12th overall pick of the 2022 draft will make his major league debut tomorrow evening against the Yankees.

Jung joins what’ll be a suddenly younger Detroit infield. The Tigers are also bringing up deadline acquisition Trey Sweeney, a 2021 first-round pick whom they acquired in the Jack Flaherty deal. That duo will join rookie second baseman Colt Keith as the Tigers evaluate young players who could be key pieces of next year’s team. Keith has had an up-and-down debut campaign at the keystone, as he’s had very poor months of April, June, and August around huge performances in May and July.

Once Detroit moved Keith from third to second base, they slid Jung to the hot corner. He has started 68 games there this season against 17 starts at second base, which had been his primary position at Texas Tech and for his first two years in pro ball. Detroit has used Gio Urshela as their primary third baseman. His bat has started to come around following a rough first half, but the Tigers seem to be turning their attention toward next season. Despite an ongoing four-game win streak, they’re 7.5 back of the American League’s last playoff spot.

Jung, the younger brother of Rangers third baseman Josh Jung, adds a high-upside offensive talent. He ranks fourth among Detroit prospects and 75th overall on Baseball America’s most recent ranking of the farm system. BA credits the left-handed hitter with plus power and a patient approach. While there’s some concern about his pure hit tool, the walks and power give him a chance to hit in the middle third of a lineup.

The 23-year-old is having a nice season in Toledo. He’s hitting .257/.377/.454 with 14 homers, 23 doubles and a triple through 415 plate appearances. Jung is drawing walks at a massive 16.1% clip while striking out at a roughly average 22.4% rate. While he has fallen into a bit of a slump of late, Jung has hit very well with the platoon advantage over the course of the season. He’s hitting .272/.402/.510 in 321 plate appearances against righty pitching.

Jung has predictably had a tougher time with left-handed arms. Detroit has a few righty-hitting infielders who could take some starts against southpaws, but Jung figures to play regularly over the season’s final six weeks. Urshela is on a one-year free agent deal and always felt like a bridge until Jung was ready to take over at third base. The Tigers should give him near everyday reps to gauge whether they can pencil him in as their starter going into 2025.

Jung will not come close to a full year of service or the time necessary to reach early arbitration as a Super Two player. He’s under team control for at least six seasons beyond this one and won’t get to arbitration for three years. A future optional assignment to Triple-A could push that timeline back.

The timing of Jung’s promotion, likely not coincidentally, comes just after the cutoff for him to preserve his rookie eligibility going into next season. From tomorrow, there’ll be 45 days remaining on the regular season calendar. A position player remains a rookie so long as they’ve spent 45 days or fewer on an MLB active roster and have not topped 130 at-bats. So long as the Tigers keep him below the at-bat threshold, Jung would be eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration going into next season.

That’s a relevant factor thanks to the Prospect Promotion Incentive introduced in the most recent round of collective bargaining. A team can earn a bonus draft pick if they carry a rookie top prospect (one who made the offseason Top 100 on at least two of the lists at Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline) for a full service year. If that player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons, the team would get an extra pick after the first round of the following draft.

Jung could be in consideration for the prospect criteria, as evidenced by his placement on BA’s current Top 100. There’s no guarantee he’ll make two of the three lists next winter — and it’s certainly not a lock that he’ll win Rookie of the Year — but the Tigers would at least keep the possibility open if they plan for Jung to break camp in 2025. The Cardinals timed their promotion of top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn right at this time last season, for instance.

Sweeney isn’t the same caliber of prospect, but Detroit could give him a look at shortstop in place of the struggling Javier Báez. They’ll need to add both players to the active and 40-man rosters. They don’t have any obvious candidates to land on the 60-day injured list, so they might need to designate multiple players for assignment tomorrow.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Christian Yelich To Undergo Season-Ending Back Surgery

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Christian Yelich is out for the season. The Brewers’ star outfielder announced (on X) that he’ll undergo surgery to address a back injury tomorrow. In a statement provided by the team, Yelich said he was hopeful of being 100% recovered for the 2025 season.

For the past month, it has been a near inevitability that Yelich was headed for surgery. He went on the 10-day injured list the week before the trade deadline after playing through lower back discomfort. Yelich visited a spine specialist and initially tried a non-surgical rehab that’d allow him to delay the procedure until the offseason. The hope was to get healthy enough to be able to contribute to the Brewers’ pennant push before more definitively addressing the problem at year’s end.

As Yelich explained today, the injury “wasn’t getting better” over the past few weeks. He added that he “ran out of options” that would allow him to make it back this season. The former MVP understandably expressed disappointment that he won’t be able to contribute on the field but indicated he’d remain around the team while they attempt to lock down a second consecutive NL Central title (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

It’s a tough end to what was shaping up as Yelich’s best season in a few years. He was utterly dominant during his first two years in Milwaukee, following up an MVP campaign in 2018 with a runner-up finish in ’19. Yelich paced the Senior Circuit in OPS both seasons. His production dropped sharply after that. From 2020-23, he was a solid but not elite hitter. Yelich remained a good player who appeared to be on the decline coming into this year, his age-32 season.

He completely flipped that script with a monster first half. Yelich raked at a .315/.406/.504 clip across 315 plate appearances. He homered 11 times and stole 21 bases while being thrown out just once. The three-time Silver Slugger Award winner cut his strikeout rate to 18.4%, the lowest of his Brewers tenure, while drawing walks at an excellent 12.4% clip. Even if he wasn’t quite back to an MVP level, Yelich was an easy call to start for the National League in the All-Star Game.

Among hitters with 300+ plate appearances, Yelich is fifth in average and fourth in on-base percentage. He’s within the top 20 in slugging output. His overall offensive production was 53 percentage points better than league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s quite comfortably tops on the team and 13th in the majors overall (with that 300 PA minimum). Yelich’s rate production sits between that of Rafael Devers and Ketel Marte.

Milwaukee isn’t going to be able to replace that kind of output. They were aware that Yelich might not make it back by the deadline. The front office reportedly sought a left-handed bat who could offer some punch against righty pitching but ultimately didn’t find a deal to their liking. Their deadline acquisitions ended up being exclusively on the pitching side, as they brought in Frankie Montas and reliever Nick Mears (in addition to their early-July pickup of Aaron Civale). The Montas trade actually sacrificed a bit of outfield depth since they sent Joey Wiemer to Cincinnati, though Wiemer wasn’t playing well enough in Triple-A to take on a meaningful role in Milwaukee.

Star rookie Jackson Chourio has moved to left field in Yelich’s absence. The 20-year-old is on a tear after a slow start to his debut campaign. Chourio has hit over .300 in each of the past three months. He’s hitting .274/.320/.441 on the season and has a massive .320/.368/.510 slash going back to June 1. Sal Frelick is having a decent year in right field, hitting .259/.333/.331 with above-average defensive grades. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell is back from injury to handle center field duties.

It’s still an extremely talented outfield, but any lineup would be much improved with Yelich in the middle of the order. The injury shouldn’t stop the Brewers from making the postseason. At 69-52, they’ve built a comfortable nine-game cushion in the NL Central. Milwaukee is in a tight battle for one of the top two seeds in the National League and the accompanying first-round bye. They’re a game and a half behind the Phillies and Dodgers, who are separated by percentage points for the NL’s best record.

Yelich remains a foundational piece for the Brew Crew in the long term. He’s under contract at $26MM annually for four seasons beyond this one. The team holds a $20MM option for the ’29 campaign. Yelich has dealt with intermittent back issues dating back to his first few seasons with the Marlins. The surgery will hopefully prevent that from being a major concern as he nears his mid-30s.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Do Not Intend To Trade Sandy Alcantara In Offseason

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The Marlins have informed Sandy Alcantara that they will not trade him during the upcoming offseason, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). Mish writes that the Fish are hopeful that the 2022 NL Cy Young winner will be ready to take the ball for them on Opening Day.

Alcantara missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. That was the first major blow in what has turned out to be a very difficult 12 months at loanDepot Park. Eury Pérez went down with a Tommy John procedure of his own a week into the ’24 season. The Marlins got 12 inconsistent starts out of Jesús Luzardo; his season is over due to a stress reaction in his back. A finger injury has interrupted what might have been a step forward from Ryan Weathers. Lefty Braxton Garrett is currently down with a flexor strain and has made all of seven starts. Edward Cabrera lost a couple months in the first half.

A rotation with a fully healthy Alcantara, Luzardo, Pérez, Garrett and Weathers would probably be a top 10 group in MLB. The Marlins have instead lost them all for significant chunks of the season. Between that brutal stretch of starting pitching injuries and one of the worst lineups in the majors, the Marlins have had a nightmare of a year. They started 0-9, never got back to .500, and are fully amidst a rebuild. Miami shipped out Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz and a few others as part of a roster overhaul. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has begun to reshape the front office, and it’s widely believed that manager Skip Schumaker and the organization could part ways at season’s end.

That upheaval means there aren’t many players whom the Marlins would probably steadfastly refuse to discuss in trade talks. That said, it never seemed especially likely they’d deal Alcantara next winter. He’s rehabbing a major arm procedure that at least clouds his trade value. While there’d surely still be interest if the Marlins shopped him, other teams would presumably want to price in some kind of discount in case Alcantara doesn’t regain his pre-surgery form.

There’s little reason for the Marlins to entertain diminished trade offers. Miami signed Alcantara to a $56MM extension the year before his Cy Young campaign. He’s under contract for another two seasons and the team holds an option for 2027. Alcantara is making $9MM this year. His salaries will jump to $17MM annually for the next two seasons; the option is valued at $21MM and comes with a $2MM buyout. (He’d also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if the Marlins trade him at any point.) From here forward, it’s a two-year, $36MM guarantee that comes with a third-year club option.

Despite the surgery, that’s good value for a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber. Bounceback starters like Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Luis Severino signed for between $13MM and $16MM in free agency last offseason. They all inked one-year deals, but that allowed them all to retest free agency in search of a much bigger contract if they returned to form. Alcantara is coming from a higher baseline than that trio of pitchers. If he looks anything like his old self, the final guaranteed season and the club option would be well below market value.

It’s a relatively costly commitment by Miami’s standards, but the Marlins have little else on the books next year. They owe the already released Avisaíl García $17MM between his $12MM salary and a $5MM buyout on his 2026 option. They’re responsible for $10MM annually to the Yankees between 2026-28 on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. Minor league reliever Woo-Suk Go, who is owed $2.75MM next season between his salary and a ’26 option buyout, is the only other player on a guaranteed deal beyond this season.

Luzardo, Jesús Sánchez and Garrett headline what’ll be a relatively light arbitration class. The Fish aren’t likely to do much in free agency after spending all of $5MM last winter on a one-year deal for Tim Anderson. Even with Alcantara’s salary rising by $8MM, they could open next season with a lower player payroll than their approximate $92MM mark this year (calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

If Alcantara performs well in the first half, he could be one of the most in-demand players at next summer’s deadline. Even if all their starters come back healthy, Miami will be hard-pressed to compete barring a major lineup overhaul. The Marlins still may not want to move Alcanatara with the amount of time remaining on his deal, but that’d be a more interesting question for the front office than it would to sell low on him over the offseason.

Dodgers’ River Ryan To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Dodgers announced Tuesday that top pitching prospect River Ryan will undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the remainder of the 2024 season and quite possibly all of the 2025 campaign while recovering. Ryan, who posted a 1.33 ERA through his first four big league starts, hit the injured list over the weekend after suffering a UCL sprain in his most recent start.

Ryan’s 2024 season was already known to be over, but the Tommy John procedure marks a worst-case scenario in the wake of his UCL injury. An internal brace procedure might’ve come with a shorter timeline for recovery, but he’ll require a full ligament replacement, which tends to shelve pitchers for upwards of 14 months. Every rehab process is different, and there’s always a chance Ryan might heal a bit faster than the standard pitcher, but a 12-month recovery is typically an absolute minimum for pitchers who require Tommy John surgery.

The 25-year-old Ryan was an 11th-round pick by the Padres in 2021. He went to the Dodgers in a trade that now looks like a heist, sending first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty back to San Diego. (Beaty played in 20 games with the Padres and hit .093/.170/.163 before being cut loose.) Ryan hadn’t even made his professional debut at the time and had signed for a $100K bonus, so he was hardly a high-end prospect. Ryan simply getting to the majors would’ve been a player development success story for Los Angeles, but he instead ascended to the point where he’s regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the sport. Ryan climbed as high as No. 21 overall on FanGraphs’ top-100 prospect rankings and sits 99th on MLB.com’s top-100 list at the moment.

The reasoning behind that rise isn’t especially difficult to see. Ryan spent the majority of the 2023 season in Double-A and pitched to a tidy 3.33 ERA in 97 1/3 frames before being bumped to Triple-A late in the year. He was hit hard in those two starts but returned to Triple-A this year and carved up opponents with a 2.76 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in five starts. He was limited in the minors this season due to a shoulder injury, but Ryan graduated to the majors with a 3.22 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in parts of three professional seasons since being traded to the Dodgers organization.

Ryan becomes the latest Dodgers hurler to land on the injured list in what’s been a trying season for their rotation depth. Los Angeles entered the year with Clayton Kershaw on the injured list and knowing that Tony Gonsolin would miss most/all of the season recovering from last summer’s Tommy John surgery. They’ve since seen Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Dustin May (esophageal surgery) fall to season-ending surgeries, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto (strained rotator cuff) and Walker Buehler (hip and elbow) land on the shelf with long-term injury troubles of their own. Prospects Nick Frasso (shoulder surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) are on the minor league injured list and done for the year as well. Last year’s breakout right-hander, Bobby Miller, has made just seven MLB starts and been ineffective both with the Dodgers and with Triple-A while navigating a shoulder injury of his own.

With that laundry list of injuries, the Dodgers currently have a rotation that includes Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone and deadline pickup Jack Flaherty. Buehler is expected to return from the injured list later this week, but he’s been bludgeoned for a 5.84 ERA in eight big league starts and has a 5.01 mark in another eight Triple-A starts this season — his first year back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. He offered a glimmer of hope in his most recent rehab start, tossing 5 1/3 innings and holding the Rangers’ Triple-A club to one run on one hit and three walks with five punchouts.

Because Ryan’s injury occurred while pitching at the big league level, he’s on the MLB injured list and will spend his 2025 rehab on the big league injured list as well. He’ll earn major league pay and service time while recovering from the injury. That’ll give him at least a full year of service while he recovers, putting him on track for arbitration in the 2027-28 offseason and free agency following the 2030 season. Of course, future optional assignments could change one or both of those trajectories, and for now the immediate focus will simply shift to the long process of getting the talented young righty back to full strength with an eye toward a late-2025 or early-2026 return.

James Paxton Diagnosed With Partially Torn Calf

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3:10pm: Manager Alex Cora tells the Sox beat that Paxton is a “long shot” to return in 2024 (X link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). The skipper added that Criswell, once healthy, will rejoin the rotation as the team’s fifth starter (X link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).

2:30pm: Red Sox left-hander James Paxton tells reporters that he’s been diagnosed with a partial tear of his right calf muscle (X link via WEEI’s Rob Bradford). The veteran southpaw acknowledged that it could sideline him for the remainder of the year but will still try to rehab in an effort to make it back before the season concludes.

The Sox placed Paxton on the 15-day injured list with a calf strain yesterday. The term “strain” itself, by definition, indicates there is a degree of stretching or tearing, so today’s announcement isn’t a total surprise. That said, the fact that he’s possibly facing an absence of six-plus weeks indicates that it’s a tear of some note — the latest in a long line of injuries that have plagued the talented left-hander throughout his big league career.

Paxton, 35, spent the 2022-23 seasons in Boston. He missed the entire ’22 campaign due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2023 to pitch 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $7MM deal with incentives that could take the contract up to $13MM. He unlocked all of those incentives before being designated for assignment and traded to the Red Sox in return for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.

The Sox hoped that Paxton would help shore up an injury-depleted starting rotation, but it’s now possible they’ll receive only three starts from him. Paxton notched a solid 4.09 ERA in his 11 innings following the trade but exited his third and potentially final start after recording just two outs. He was Boston’s lone veterean acquisition prior to the trade deadline, meaning the Sox will again be left to rely on the quartet of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, with scant depth behind the group. Righty Cooper Criswell has pitched well but has little track record and is currently out with Covid-19. Fellow righty Josh Winckowski has also made a handful of starts and could see further action down the stretch.

Paxton’s injury could open the door for young Quinn Priester, whom the Sox acquired from the Pirates in exchange for infield prospect Nick Yorke. Priester, a former first-round pick and top prospect, has yet to establish himself as a consistently viable big league starter. He’s logged a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 big league innings to this point in his young career, but the 23-year-old has generally fared well in the upper minors — an ugly two-game stint with the Sox’ Triple-A club in Worcester notwithstanding.

It’s a tenuous situation in Boston — one that would blow up in particularly bad fashion were one of Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to go down with an injury of note. Boston traded Chris Sale to the Braves in a regrettable offseason swap that netted infielder Vaughn Grissom. He was “replaced” by right-hander Lucas Giolito, who required season-ending internal brace surgery before the 2024 campaign began. Righty Garrett Whitlock had his own internal brace operation back in May. Depth arms like Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata have also been non-factors this season due to injury.

The Red Sox currently sit in third place in the AL East despite a strong 62-55 record. They’re only two games back in the American League Wild Card hunt, landing .001 percentage points ahead of the 63-56 Mariners but trailing the 65-54 Royals for the final Wild Card spot.

Rays Recall Junior Caminero

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August 13: The Rays made it official today, recalling Caminero and optioning Mead as the corresponding move.

August 12: The Rays plan to recall top infield prospect Junior Caminero from Triple-A Durham before tomorrow’s game against the Astros, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s his first promotion of the season. Caminero is already on the 40-man roster because the Rays initially called him up last September. They’ll only need to make an active roster transaction tomorrow.

Caminero, who turned 21 last month, appeared in seven games for Tampa Bay late last season. He hit his first big league homer but managed only a .278 on-base percentage. The Rays carried him on their Wild Card roster but didn’t get him into a postseason game. Tampa Bay had jumped Caminero directly from Double-A to the big leagues, so they unsurprisingly optioned him to Durham out of Spring Training this year.

The righty-hitting infielder would likely have gotten a call back to the majors sooner if not for a tough stretch of injury luck. Caminero had a pair of stints on the minor league injured list because of quad issues. He’s been limited to 53 games as a result, though he’s playing well when healthy. Caminero carries a .276/.331/.498 slash with 13 homers across 236 Triple-A plate appearances. That’s not overwhelming production in the overall league context, as Triple-A has become very favorable for hitters, even in the International League.

It’s a lot more impressive when considering that Caminero is still the age of a typical college junior. This is technically his age-20 season. He’s one of two players — along with Jackson Holliday — who have managed 200+ Triple-A plate appearances this year at that age. Jackson Chourio is the only 20-year-old to hit that threshold in the big leagues.

Not coincidentally, those players were arguably the top three prospects in the sport entering the season. Chourio has exhausted his prospect eligibility, but Holliday and Caminero respectively landed second and third on Baseball America’s updated Top 100 list. Evaluators continue to laud his massive power potential and overall offensive upside.

The Rays are in dire need of a lineup boost. They dropped tonight’s contest to the Astros 6-1 and have scored two or fewer runs in nine of their past 14 games. Only the A’s have scored fewer runs in August. Tampa Bay dropped back to .500 and sit 5.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the American League with three teams to surpass.

Their status as long shot contenders contributed to the front office’s decision to deal the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Zach Eflin, Jason Adam and Aaron Civale before the deadline. The Rays didn’t go full scorched earth — they held Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks most notably — but the Paredes and Arozarena subtractions make it easier to find a lineup spot for Caminero.

Topkin writes that the Rays are likely to play Caminero regularly at either third base or designated hitter. Tampa Bay has divided playing time at the hot corner between José Caballero and Curtis Mead recently. Mead has yet to hit in his young major league career. Caballero is a glove-first player who can move around the diamond. He’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield and Topkin suggests the Rays could get him some outfield work down the stretch.

Caminero picked up 10 days of major league service last year. He could accrue another 48 days of service time this year if he’s in the majors for good. That won’t be enough to impact his path to free agency or arbitration. He has already sufficient time in Triple-A this season to push his path to free agency back until at least the 2030-31 offseason. He will not qualify for arbitration until the 2027-28 winter at the earliest. Caminero could surpass the requisite 45 days on an MLB active roster to exhaust his rookie eligibility heading into next season, though. Doing so would render him ineligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive in 2025, which would take the possibility of Caminero “earning” the Rays a bonus draft pick based on his Rookie of the Year or MVP finish off the table.

That’s a secondary consideration to getting Caminero his first real run against big league pitching. It’s a stretch to count on any young player to immediately carry a lineup, as some early-season struggles from Holliday and Chourio demonstrated. Even if Caminero doesn’t lead Tampa Bay on a furious playoff push, he’s a potential foundational player whom the Rays are hoping establishes himself as their answer at the hot corner in short order.

Mariners Sign Víctor Robles To Extension

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The Mariners announced that they have signed outfielder Víctor Robles to a contract extension. It reportedly guarantees him $9.75MM over the next two years, which includes a $1.25MM signing bonus. He can earn an extra $2MM via bonuses/escalators, $1MM in each season, $500K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $500K for 600 plate appearances. The Mariners will have a $9MM club option for 2027. Robles is represented by Republik Sports.

The deal is a demonstration of what a remarkable turnaround it’s been for Robles in the past two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for assignment at the end of May. They reportedly then explored trades with other clubs but couldn’t find any takers. Since Robles had enough service time to reject an outright assignment while keeping what remained of this year’s $2.65MM salary, the Nats simply released him.

The Mariners took a shot on him, which essentially came with no risk. The Nats were still on the hook for most of his salary, leaving the Mariners to pay just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats pay.

For that minimal investment, the Mariners have already been hugely rewarded. In 42 games for Seattle, he has three home runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% better than league average offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting average on balls in play is definitely on the high side but he’s only striking out at a 16.3% rate and that would be strong offense even with a bit of regression.

That’s especially true because Robles is capable of providing value even when he doesn’t have the bat in his hands. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and provided competent glovework in the outfield, playing all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth 1.2 wins above replacement already in his brief stint with the Mariners.

That has been especially valuable for a club that has struggled to generate offense this year. They have arguably the best pitching staff in the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops in the majors, but the lack of punch at the plate has kept them fighting for their lives. They are 63-56, effectively even with the Astros in the division but 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

Robles was an impending free agent but the Mariners have seen enough that they are willing to keep him around for another two and maybe three years. Of course, they’re not just making this decision based on the 42 games he has played since changing uniforms. During his time with the Nats, he was once considered one of the best prospects in the sport. He was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as fifth overall in 2018.

He seemed to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, helping the Nats win the World Series that year. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit below par, translating to a 92 wRC+, but he was able to produce 3.7 fWAR thanks to his defense and speed. He stole 28 bases on the year, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Average. Given that he was only 22 years old at the time, it seemed fair to expect that he was only scratching the surface of the player he was about to become.

Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his performance dropped significantly for the next few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend some time on the injured list but that was a significant sample size of 965 plate appearances.

Despite those struggles, the Nats stuck by him, continually tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He seemed to be getting things back on track last year, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, but he was limited to just 36 games on the season because of back spasms in the lumbar spine. Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM salary for 2024, hoping that Robles could both stay healthy and put his past struggles behind him. But this year got out to a shaky start, as Robles missed about a month due to a left hamstring strain and hit just .120/.281/.120 in 14 games for Washington before they decided to cut him loose.

The Mariners have been rewarded with the version of Robles that the Nats thought they had many times in the past. The combination of his past prospect pedigree and his recent performance clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can keep producing for a few more years. There is obviously some risk there based on how poorly he has performed at times in the past, but they are also not sticking their neck out with vast sums of money.

The guarantee works out to less than $5MM per year, which is fairly modest in baseball terms. Even if Robles takes a step back at the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of resources. And if he can continue to keep hitting, then there’s plenty of upside for the M’s.

For Robles, he is perhaps leaving a bit of money on the table here, but it’s also understandable that he would want to lock in some significant earnings. If he had continued to perform at this level for the rest of the season, he likely would have earned a larger guarantee than the one he’s agreeing to now. But as he surely knows from the winding path of his career, it’s not a guarantee that it will continue to go so well. After all, it was just two months ago that all the clubs in the league passed on the chance to acquire him while he’s making a fairly modest salary. If Robles had suffered another injury or simply struggled at the plate down the stretch, he may not have been able to secure a guarantee of even this size.

He also still has future earning power that he could tap into if he keeps performing. Due to debuting at such a young age, he’s still just 27 years old. This deal will cover his age-28 and -29 seasons with the option giving the M’s a chance to control him through his age-30 season. If he’s able to keep up his all-around performance through the course of this contract, he could line himself up for a more sizable deal at that point. If the option is triggered and he hits those escalators, he will have already banked $20.75MM off this deal.

The Mariners also get a headstart on bolstering their future outfield. They already have Julio Rodríguez locked in for many years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable via arbitration through 2026. Mitch Haniger has one more year on his deal after this and the club also has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone in the mix, though Raley has been getting a lot of playing time at first base lately. Justin Turner figures to be in the designated hitter spot a lot for the rest of this year but is an impending free agent.

It’s arguably a crowded mix but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is one of the game’s most active decision makers and could deal from this group in the offseason if the opportunity presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a player who is perhaps breaking out, but without breaking the bank. Robles, meanwhile, has secured himself a really nice bit of financial security that didn’t seem possible just a few short weeks ago.

Yancen Pujols first reported that the two sides had agreed to an extension with a $9.75MM guarantee (Spanish-language link on X). Jorge Castillo of ESPN had the two-year length, club option and $2MM in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com provided the specifics of the bonuses/escalators as well as the signing bonus (X link).

Dodgers Designate Amed Rosario For Assignment, Activate Mookie Betts

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The Dodgers announced Monday that they’ve reinstated Mookie Betts from the 60-day injured list and created space in somewhat surprising fashion: infielder/outfielder and trade deadline acquisition Amed Rosario has been designated for assignment.

Rosario, 28, was acquired in a trade sending 28-year-old minor league reliever Michael Flynn back to the Rays. It wasn’t a steep price to pay necessarily, but it’s nevertheless unexpected to see Los Angeles move on in such quick fashion. The versatile Rosario received only 12 plate appearances in his second stint with Los Angeles — the Dodgers also acquired him at the 2023 deadline — and has hit well all season. In 287 plate appearances between Tampa Bay and L.A., he’s slashing .305/.331/.415 — about 14% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

Dodgers brass was largely choosing among Rosario, Enrique Hernandez and Nick Ahmed when determining who would be the odd man out to clear way for Betts’ return. Hernandez has struggled badly in 2024 overall, but a well-timed hot streak has ostensibly saved his spot on the roster. He’s hitting .333/.405/.545 in 37 plate appearances this month. Ahmed has posted an empty .268 batting average in 42 plate appearances (.268/.286/.341, 77 wRC+), but he’s a high-end defender at shortstop. With Betts returning to right field, keeping an elite middle infield defender like Ahmed apparently won out over keeping a more productive but less valuable defensive piece in Rosario.

The veteran Rosario signed an eminently affordable one-year, $1.5MM contract with the Rays over the winter, looking to rebound from a career-worst showing with the Guardians and Dodgers last year. After spending years as the primary shortstop in Cleveland, he’s moved to a utility role that’s seen him log time at shortstop, second base, third base and in right field this season. He’s drawn poor defensive grades in general and has never been regarded as a high-quality glove at shortstop at the big league level. Rosario has been productive at the plate, however, and that’s particularly true against lefties, who he’s tagged for an impressive .327/.355/.462 line in 2024.

Between his light contract, offensive production and his growing experience at multiple positions, Rosario stands a far greater chance of being claimed by another team than most veterans who are designated for assignment this time of year. The trade deadline has passed, so the only option the Dodgers will have is to place Rosario on outright waivers or release waivers. It’d be another, more modest surprise if he passed through unclaimed.

With that in mind, it’s worth noting that outright waiver order is determined by the reverse order of the MLB-wide standings and is not league-specific. That’s a common misconception, but league-specific waivers pertained to the now-defunct August trade waiver process. (MLBTR has confirmed this with league sources on multiple occasions.) Since Rosario is a free agent at the end of the year, it’s likely that rebuilding clubs and others whose postseason hopes have faded will allow him to pass through.

At the moment, waiver priority among postseason hopefuls (using an admittedly arbitrary criteria of fewer than six games back in either a division race or Wild Card chase) would be ranked: Pirates, Reds, Cubs, Rays, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Braves, Red Sox, Mariners, Astros, Royals, Padres, D-backs, Twins, Brewers, Guardians, Phillies, Yankees and Orioles. As of this writing, Rosario is still owed $387K of this year’s salary. Any team that claims him would be on the hook for the full sum, whereas the Dodgers would be spared that sum plus the 110% tax as a third-time luxury payor. Overall, waiving Rosario could save the Dodgers about $813K — assuming he’s claimed.

As for Betts, he’ll return to his customary right field and add another former MVP to the top of the Dodgers’ lineup, slotting into between fellow former MVPs Shohei Ohtani (leadoff) and Freddie Freeman (No. 3 hitter). Betts gives manager Dave Roberts a right-handed bat to break up that pair of imposing lefties, and Betts of course is among the more feared hitters in the sport when healthy.

Prior to the fractured hand that cost him the past eight-plus weeks, Betts was hitting .304/.405/.488 with 10 homers, 16 doubles, three triples, nine steals (in 10 tries), a 14.2% walk rate and just a 10.3% strikeout rate. With Betts now back in right field, the Dodgers will play Miguel Rojas regularly at shortstop and Gavin Lux at second base, with the aforementioned Hernandez an option to back up Lux (especially against lefties) and Ahmed providing a glove-first backup at shortstop.

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