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Royals Sign Carlos Estévez

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The Royals and right-hander Carlos Estévez are in agreement on a two-year deal that comes with a club option for 2027. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment client, which includes a $2MM buyout on the option valued at $13MM. If the Royals exercise the option, the deal would reach $33MM over three seasons. The Royals designated Braden Shewmake for assignment in a corresponding move.

Estévez, 32, spent the first six seasons of his career with the Rockies. Pitching in Coors Field may have masked his talents, as he generally had good strikeout and walk rates but middling run prevention numbers. From 2019 to 2022, his final four seasons in Colorado, he tossed 214 2/3 innings with a 4.28 earned run average, 23.9% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate.

Getting away from the mountains has been good for his bottom-line numbers. He signed a two-year, $13.5MM deal with the Angels going into 2023, then was traded to the Phillies at the 2024 deadline. Over those two years, he threw 117 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. He has become a bonafide closer in that time as well, racking up 31 saves in 2023 and 26 last year.

His 2024 season was his best yet, in a sense, as his 2.45 ERA was a personal low. However, there was some concern with how he finished. He struck out 25.8% of batters faced with the Angels but just 20.5% of opponents after being flipped to Philadelphia. But that was despite his velocity increasing as the season went along. He also got more ground balls after the deal, with a 25.3% rate as an Angel last year compared to a 43.5% rate with the Phils. In the end, he still managed to have a tidy 2.57 ERA with Philly, racking up six saves.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Estévez for a three-year, $27MM deal. It seems the righty has been limited to a slightly lesser guarantee over two years, though he will end up beating that projection if the option is ultimately picked up.

The Royals had a strong rotation last year but their bullpen was less impressive. Their relievers had a collective 4.13 ERA last year, which placed them 20th out of the 30 clubs in the league. They tried to address that at the deadline by adding Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey in separate trades. Erceg posted a 2.88 ERA for the club after the deal and then had a 3.00 ERA over six postseason appearances as well. The Harvey acquisition didn’t pay immediate dividends, however, as a back injury limited him to just six appearances as a Royal. He is still under club control for 2025, so the Royals will hope for better health this year.

Though Erceg’s performance made the group look stronger, continuing to add this winter makes sense. That’s especially true with Kris Bubic likely moving to the rotation this year. Time will tell whether they have a preferred closer. As mentioned, Estévez has been closing for the past two years. Erceg recorded 11 saves for the Royals after being acquired, plus three more in the playoffs. Regardless of the roles, Estévez strengthens the relief group overall.

The Royals opened last year with a payroll of $115MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are projected by RosterResource to be up to $123MM next year, before accounting for Estévez. They have reportedly been looking for a middle-of-the-order bat. Whether they can find one will likely depend on how much farther they are willing to push the spending.

Estévez received plenty of interest from other clubs this offseason, such as the Reds, Tigers, Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. Some of those clubs have since made other moves to address their respective bullpens. For clubs still looking to add relievers, the options have been flying off the board lately. Since the start of January, Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, Jeff Hoffman, Caleb Ferguson, Jorge López, A.J. Minter, José Leclerc, Tanner Scott, Paul Sewald, Kirby Yates, Ryne Stanek and Tommy Kahnle have agree to deals of $3MM or more. Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers were also traded this week.

Free agency still features players such as David Robertson, Kenley Jansen, Andrew Chafin and others, while guys like Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley or Camilo Doval might be available on the trading block.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Royals and Estévez had a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first with the two-year guarantee and the third-year club option. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the $22MM guarantee and the $13MM option value.

Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer

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The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year deal with Max Scherzer. The Boras Corporation client reportedly receives a $15.5MM salary with no deferrals and a full no-trade clause.

Scherzer is obviously a legend in the game and a future Hall of Famer. He debuted back in 2008, has almost 3,000 innings in the majors with a 3.16 earned run average, three Cy Young trophies, eight All-Star selections and two World Series rings.

The question is what he has left in the tank at this point. He is now 40 years old and coming off an injury-marred season. He started 2024 on the injured list while recovering from offseason back surgery. Though he recovered from that, he also battled a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring throughout the season. He was limited to just nine starts and 43 1/3 innings.

That obviously creates some concern but Scherzer has been remarkably durable throughout his career. In each full season from 2009 to 2023, he made 27 or more starts and logged at least 145 1/3 innings. From 2013 to 2018, he had six straight seasons of hitting the 200-inning plateau. In short, 2024 was the first season of his career where he missed significant time.

Even though the volume of his output was low, some of the results last year were still decent. He posted a 3.95 earned run average over those nine starts. His 22.6% strikeout rate was a drop for him personally but still around league average, while his 5.6% walk rate was still a very strong mark. His velocity was down as well on his fastball, going from 93.7 miles per hour in 2023 to 92.5 mph last year.

There are obviously some yellow flags in there but it’s of course possible that better health could lead to some better results. It’s a bit of a gamble for the Jays but this is clearly the market rate for a veteran pitcher with some question marks. Each of Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb secured one-year deals worth $15MM this offseason. Scherzer symbolically got past that group with an extra half mil.

There are many ways in which Verlander and Scherzer are similar, given their lengthy careers full of accolades. The two have also crossed paths many times, as they were both in the Detroit rotation just over a decade ago, before reuniting with the Mets more recently. Verlander’s 2024 was also injury-marred, though with perhaps some more concerning numbers. His 17 starts and 90 1/3 innings were more than Scherzer managed but Verlander had a 5.48 ERA and his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.7%. Verlander is also a bit older, about to turn 42 next month.

Cobb is only 37 but he only managed three starts last year, plus two more in the playoffs, thanks to his own maladies. He also doesn’t quite have the same legendary track record as Scherzer or Verlander. Morton, who is now 41, managed to make 30 starts for Atlanta last year but he seemingly limited his market by having a preference for clubs with spring training sites near his family in Florida.

The Jays have been connected to just about every available free agent this winter. That has included some high-profile position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as starting pitchers like Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes. There were obviously some frustrating misses in there, but the club has had a couple of strikes more recently. In the past three weeks, they’ve added Anthony Santander to their lineup, Jeff Hoffman to their bullpen and now Scherzer to the rotation.

While the Jays may have preferred to get one of those other starting pitchers, Scherzer keeps their commitment short. It also gives the club a very veteran rotation core. Kevin Gausman is 34, Chris Bassitt will turn 36 next month and José Berríos will be 31 in May. Those four are sure to be taking the ball with regularity, as long as they’re all healthy.

If Scherzer avoids the injury bug this year, he’ll upgrade the rotation and could perhaps indirectly upgrade the bullpen as well. Prior to this signing, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez were projected as the top options for the fourth and final spots in the rotation. Even with Scherzer in the fold, Francis will likely still get a rotation spot. After the Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline last year, Francis got a rotation audition and ran with it. He finished out the campaign with 59 innings over nine starts with a 1.53 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate. He still has one minor league option but the Jays would surely like to see if he could carry that forward.

That could push Rodríguez into a relief role, something he has done with success before. Last year was his first in the majors and he made 21 starts with decent results. He had a 4.47 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. But prior to signing with the Jays, he was a dominant closer in Japan. In 2022, he made 56 appearances for the Chunichi Dragons with a 1.15 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He sat out 2023 while attempting to be declared a free agent.

Going into last year, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported that Rodríguez’s contract stipulated he could only be optioned for the 2024 season. The Blue Jays did indeed option him a few times last year but it seems they won’t be able to do so from now on, so perhaps he’ll end up in the bullpen instead. He could compete for a leverage role alongside Hoffman, Yimi García, Chad Green and Erik Swanson.

That would subtract from the rotation depth a bit, but the Jays have a few more options there than they did last year. They added Jake Bloss, who already has a bit of Triple-A and MLB experience, in the aforementioned Kikuchi deal. Adam Macko is on the 40-man roster and should be in Triple-A this year after spending most of 2024 in Double-A. Alek Manoah had internal brace surgery in June and could make a late-season return. Since Scherzer is one a one-year deal and Bassitt is going into the final year of his pact, there are long-term openings for that group if any of them have a good showing in 2025.

RosterResource now sets the club’s payroll at $250MM and and their competitive balance tax number at $273MM. That puts them already well beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts put at $225MM. Their CBT number was over the line in 2024 but they ducked under when their disappointing season lead to a deadline selloff, so they will go into 2025 as “first-time” payors. They are now within striking distance of the third CBT line, which will be $281MM next year. Going over that marker this year would mean their top pick in the 2026 draft would be pushed back 10 spots.

Despite running those numbers up to new heights, it doesn’t appear they are done. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Jays are still interested in Pete Alonso if he doesn’t circle back to the Mets while Keegan Matheson of MLB.com also suggests they should still have some flexibility. Maybe the Jays will add Alonso or someone else, or finally get an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s been a long, frustrating winter for Jays fans but a lot has changed in the past few weeks, perhaps with more to come. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about two weeks.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Scherzer was headed to the Jays. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that it was a one-year deal. Heyman then reported the $15.5MM guarantee. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet first had the lack of deferrals. Heyman had the no-trade clause.

Dodgers Designate Ryan Brasier For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced that they’ve designated Ryan Brasier for assignment. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for the signing of Kirby Yates to a $13MM free agent deal. Los Angeles still has five days to explore trade possibilities before they need to place Brasier on waivers. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so there’ll be official resolution on the DFA within a week.

It’s a moderate surprise to see Brasier cut loose. He’s a solid veteran reliever who signed a two-year free agent deal last winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Dodgers were shopping the righty, though, suggesting he was the odd man out of Dave Roberts’ bullpen. While the DFA confirms that Brasier will not be back in Los Angeles, they have a few more days to try to line up a deal.

Brasier broke out with the Red Sox a few seasons ago. He fell on hard times later in his Boston tenure and was designated for assignment early in 2023. A minor league deal with the Dodgers paid huge dividends, as Brasier fired 38 2/3 innings of 0.70 ERA ball in the second half. He returned to Los Angeles on a two-year, $9MM pact.

The 37-year-old Brasier was never going to replicate his late-season ’23 numbers. He had another decent year when healthy, working to a 3.54 ERA with a league average 22.7% strikeout percentage. Brasier kept his walk rate to a tidy 4.5% clip, in large part because he got opponents to chase 40% of pitches off the plate.

Health was the biggest caveat. Brasier suffered a significant strain of his right calf in late April. He was shelved into the middle of August and limited to 28 innings on the season. He had an excellent second half but was nevertheless relegated to low-leverage appearances during the World Series run. Brasier allowed five runs with seven strikeouts and three walks across nine playoff innings.

The DFA is less a reflection of Brasier of “losing” his job and much more about L.A.’s bullpen depth. They added Tanner Scott and Yates after re-signing Blake Treinen. They join Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia as bullpen locks. The Dodgers are going to run a six-man rotation, meaning they can only devote seven roster spots to relievers.

They could go back to an eight-man bullpen once Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation, since Ohtani doesn’t count against their 13-pitcher limit as a two-way player. They’re not going to push Ohtani’s elbow rehab merely to get another bullpen spot, so there’s probably only one available if all their relievers are healthy coming out of camp. Anthony Banda is out of options and seems likely to grab the final relief job.

Los Angeles owes Brasier $4.5MM for the coming season. They’ll surely try to find a taker for at least part of that salary in trade. They’d also save 110% in taxes for any salary they could offload. If they can’t line up a trade, they’ll put Brasier on waivers. Any claiming team would need to take his full salary, which is unlikely. He’d probably clear waivers and be available as a free agent for the league minimum, leaving the Dodgers on the hook for the rest of the money.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the Dodgers had DFA Brasier.

Padres Re-Sign Elias Díaz

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The Padres officially announced that they’ve re-signed catcher Elias Díaz to a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2026 season. The ACES client is reportedly guaranteed $3.5MM — taking the form of a $1.5MM base salary for the upcoming season and a $2MM buyout on the $7MM option. San Diego had multiple openings on the 40-man roster and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Díaz, 34, finished the 2024 season with the Padres. After being released by the Rockies, he landed a minors pact with the Friars and was added to the roster just before the calendar flipped from August to September. He joined Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano on the roster, though Campusano would be optioned a little more than a week later. Díaz hit .190/.292/.429 in 24 plate appearances. For the postseason, the Friars carried Higashioka and Díaz on the roster over Campusano, though Higashioka took the bulk of the work as Díaz received only one plate appearance.

Both Díaz and Higashioka became free agents at the end of the season, leaving the Friars with a clear hole behind the plate. Higashioka signed with the Rangers. Campusano, who is still on the roster, seemed to have a breakout season in 2023 when he hit .319/.356/.491, but his line had a steep drop last year, finishing at .227/.281/.361. Since his defensive metrics were also poor, he was considered to be below replacement level on the year.

That made the position a clear target area for the Friars this offseason. However, the club has been remarkably quiet this winter. Once completed, this will be their first free agent signing. Their only trade so far was acquiring right-hander Ron Marinaccio after he was designated for assignment by the White Sox.

That’s surely related to the club’s uncertain payroll situation. The Padres spent aggressively while Peter Seidler was owning the club but it turned out to not be sustainable. In September of 2023, it was reported that the club was “out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio.” Seidler died in November of that year. The 2023-24 offseason saw the Padres look to cut their payroll, which led to Juan Soto getting traded to the Yankees.

This winter, it once seemed that the club would have to dial back projected spending some more, which led to plenty of rumors involving players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arráez, Michael King, Robert Suarez and others. Reporting in recent days has suggested the situation isn’t quite so dire, with the Friars not necessarily having to cut spending. However, with holes in left field, at catcher, in the rotation and perhaps at shortstop, trading one of those players might still be necessary in order to free up money and then add elsewhere.

Regardless of the specifics, it’s clear that the budget crunch has made president of baseball operations A.J. Preller far less active than in other offseasons. It has also limited the club in addressing their catching situation. They signed Martín Maldonado to a minor league deal and have now made a modest investment with this deal.

Díaz generally gets better marks for his glovework than for his bat. For his career, he has hit .251/.304/.388 for a wRC+ of 78, indicating he’s been 22% below the league average hitter. Catchers generally come in about 10% below the league-wide mean, though Díaz will still come in below that lower bar. Between the Rockies and Padres last year, he hit .265/.313/.382 for a wRC+ of 81.

Behind the plate, outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast have generally ranked him as a poor framer but close to average in terms of blocking and strong when it comes to controlling the running game.

Díaz and Campusano now project as the club’s catching duo. Campusano still has an option and could be pushed to Triple-A, though the only other backstop on the 40-man roster is Brett Sullivan, who is about to turn 31 years old and has a .206/.243/.299 line in just 103 big league appearances.

Ideally, Campusano would regain his 2023 form and run with the job. He has less than three years of service time and therefore has the potential to be a cheap solution for his four remaining years of club control. But if he can’t rebound from his rough 2024, the Padres now at least have a competent veteran on-hand. Maldonado also gives them some seasoned non-roster depth and it’s also possible the club makes further moves to address the catching situation.

RosterResource now projects the Friars for a competitive balance tax number of $245MM. That’s just a bit above this year’s $241MM base threshold, though as mentioned, it’s possible that they change their financial situation via trades of players making notable salaries.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported that Díaz had agreed to a one-year deal that guaranteed $3.5MM and included a mutual option. Álvarez-Montes also reported the specific salary breakdown and the option value.

Reds Sign Austin Hays

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The Reds announced the signing of outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year deal. The MAS+ client is reportedly guaranteed $5MM. That takes the form of a $4MM salary for the upcoming season and a $1MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for 2026. Hays can earn an additional $1MM via incentives. Right-hander Casey Legumina was designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Hays, 29, gives the Reds the right-handed-hitting complement they’ve been seeking for the lefty-swinging outfield group of TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley and Will Benson. He’s a career .277/.331/.469 hitter against left-handed pitching and has experience playing all three outfield spots — though he’s generally better suited for corner work than center field.

As recently as 2023, Hays was an All-Star in Baltimore. He had a down showing in the second half after a monster .314/.355/.498 first half of that season but still finished out the year with a hearty .275/.325/.444 batting line in 566 plate appearances.

The 2024 season, however, was an abject nightmare for Hays. He struggled immensely on the field, due to a pair of leg injuries (hamstring strain, calf strain) and, far more concerning, a kidney infection. As Rosenthal detailed earlier in the offseason, Hays described that kidney infection as “the hardest thing I’ve ever gone through.” Upon discovering it, doctors told him he’d likely been suffering from the ill effects of that infection for weeks prior.

Hays told Rosenthal that his symptoms included nausea, lightheadedness, lower back pain, sluggish legs and even a “brain fog” that would at times cause him to lose focus and forget what he was talking about mid-conversation. Hays initially chalked some of the exhaustion, leg fatigue and back pain up to the rigors of a full season and the prior hamstring/calf strains still impacting him. As time wore on and his symptoms increased, it became clear something else was at play.

A healthy Hays could well be a boon to the Cincinnati outfield, particularly if he’s in line to face a large slate of left-handed pitching. The move from Baltimore to Cincinnati should favor him considerably, too. Camden Yards has become a wasteland for right-handed power hitters in recent years, following the team’s decision to alter the dimensions in left field. Since 2022, when the O’s initially altered their park and installed a towering wall in left field (often referred to as “Mount Wall-timore”), their stadium has been the third-worst in MLB for right-handed home runs, per Statcast, leading only Cleveland’s Progressive Field and Pittsburgh’s PNC Park. Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, meanwhile, ranks as the third most-favorable park in MLB for right-handed home runs, by those same park factors.

Hays’ presence in Cincinnati could open up some more infield and/or DH at-bats for fellow righty Spencer Steer, who played primarily in the outfield last year. Steer is an infielder by trade, but his versatility was leveraged when the Reds’ infield became increasingly crowded.

The trade of Jonathan India and overwhelming struggles of Noelvi Marte last year have perhaps lent some extra clarity to the infield, however. There’s still some playing time to sort out this spring, but Steer could see time at the corners and DH alongside Jeimer Candelario, who also struggled in an injury-marred 2024 season, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who missed most of the year due to wrist surgery. Matt McLain (who missed most of the season due to shoulder surgery) and Elly De La Cruz are in line to serve as the primary second baseman and shortstop, respectively. Trade acquisition Gavin Lux could also see time at second base and in left field. Broadly speaking, the Reds’ lineup will feature quite a few moving parts for new skipper Terry Francona to juggle based on matchups, health and workload management.

Hays’ $5MM guarantee will push the Reds’ payroll just north of $110MM, marking an increase of about $10MM over their 2024 budget. Even an increase of that level looked questionable just weeks ago, but the team’s surprise agreement with Main Street Sports/FanDuel Sports Network (the rebranded Diamond Sports/Bally RSN provider) afforded president of baseball operations Nick Krall some additional resources to further build out the 2025 club. The Reds have also been tied to relief upgrades, Carlos Estevez most notably, but it’s not clear whether ownership’s budgetary preferences can accommodate both Hays and another bullpen arm — particularly one of Estevez’s caliber and likely asking price.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Hays and the Reds had agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal with $1MM in incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the salary breakdown and the mutual option.

Cubs, Padres Have Discussed Dylan Cease

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The Cubs are among the teams that have discussed right-hander Dylan Cease with the Padres, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There’s no indication that the two sides are close to any sort of deal or that discussions were anything more than exploratory.

Cease, 29, has been bandied about the rumor mill for much of the winter as a payroll-crunched Padres club struggles to find ways to address myriad roster holes. A free agent following the 2025 season, Cease is slated to earn $13.75MM this year. Trading him for a controllable, lower-cost outfielder could affordably plug one lineup hole while also freeing up more than $13MM to backfill the rotation. Alternatively, the Friars could build a Cease deal around controllable, low-cost (and also less-proven) rotation pieces and look to reallocate Cease’s salary to a bat that’s yet to find a home in free agency or a trade target in the outfield. The Padres have at least gauged interest in impending free agents like Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (signed through 2027 but with an opt-out next offseason) under similar rationale.

The Cubs already have a deep rotation featuring Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. Free agent signee Colin Rea gives them a veteran sixth option, and Chicago has younger names like Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian on the 40-man roster, with prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell climbing the minor league ladder.

Given that stock of arms, the Cubs don’t necessarily need another starting pitcher, but there’s an argument that some of that depth and their impressive stock of high-end position prospects could be condensed into a front-of-the-rotation arm like Cease. Morosi highlighted top outfield prospect Owen Caissie as a potential piece of a Cease trade in an on-air segment this morning, albeit in fairly speculative fashion.

Coupling Caissie or another touted outfielder like Kevin Alcantara with a controllable arm that lacks Cease’s ceiling but could be a third or fourth starter (e.g. Wicks, Assad) could hold some appeal to a Padres club that lacks rotation depth, a clear left fielder or designated hitter, and has a shaky-at-best collection of options to fill out manager Mike Shildt’s bench. Anecdotally, a trade involving Cease and Caissie would send each player back to their original organization; Cease was a sixth-round pick of the Cubs who was traded to the White Sox in exchange for Jose Quintana, while Caissie was a Padres second-rounder who went to the Cubs as part of the Yu Darvish trade.

Outfield is an area of depth for the Cubs, who have Ian Happ in left field, young Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and trade acquisition Kyle Tucker in right field. The acquisition of Tucker has pushed slugger Seiya Suzuki into a primary DH role, though he’ll surely still see some corner time depending on injuries or off-days for other members of the outfield. Tucker is a free agent at season’s end, but Happ and Suzuki are both signed through 2026 while Crow-Armstrong can be controlled all the way through 2030. Both Caissie and Alcantara are generally viewed as MLB-ready pieces who could step into the majors as soon as this season after posting big seasons in the upper minors in 2024. (Alcantara made a brief MLB debut late in ’24 already.) Infielder and fellow top prospect James Triantos also got a bit of work in the outfield in 2024. He’s on the cusp of his MLB debut as well.

The circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Cease are fairly similar to those of Corbin Burnes one year ago. While Cease has had a bit more volatility in terms of year-over-year results and doesn’t have a Cy Young Award to his credit, he’s a top-end starter with a relatively reasonable salary and one season of club control remaining. He’s unlikely to sign an extension, as was the case with Burnes, but could net a new team a draft pick if and when he rejects a qualifying offer next winter. That holds some inherent value and helps to offset the prospect loss required to pry Cease loose in a trade. The Orioles sent two MLB-ready players who’d garnered top-100 fanfare — infielder Joey Ortiz and lefty DL Hall — to the Brewers along with a 2024 competitive balance draft pick (No. 34 overall).

That was a steep price to pay, and perhaps Cease’s value isn’t quite to that same level, but it shouldn’t be far off. At the very least, it provides a rough blueprint for what San Diego could reasonably seek in exchange for a power-armed 29-year-old who landed second in 2022 American League Cy Young voting.

Payroll-wise, the Cubs have more than enough space to add Cease’s salary while still remaining comfortably south of the $241MM luxury threshold and leaving space for in-season acquisitions. RosterResource projects Chicago at a bit more than $207MM in luxury obligations after their recent acquisition of Ryan Pressly, giving them about $34MM of cushion between their current standing and that tax barrier.

White Sox Discussed Luis Robert With Reds, Giants; Trade Before Spring Training Seen As Unlikely

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The second White Sox rebuild of the past decade has stripped the roster of nearly all its notable veterans, but center fielder Luis Robert Jr. stands as a holdover from the team’s brief two-year run as a playoff club and a still-prominent trade candidate. Had Robert enjoyed a healthy 2024 campaign he’d likely already be gone, because at his best (e.g. 2023), he’s proven to be a five-tool, MVP-caliber talent. Staying on the field, however, has been problematic.

Robert played only 100 games in 2024 and didn’t seem to be at full strength for much of that time. His .224/.278/.379 slash was the worst production of his career. That’s made it tough for the White Sox to find a middle ground in trade conversations. Selling low on such a talented player when he’s signed through 2027 — $15MM in 2025, plus a pair of $20MM club options for 2026-27 — would be a major missed opportunity if Robert is able to bounce back with a healthy season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that those hurdles impacted trade talks with both the Giants earlier in the offseason and, much more recently, with the Reds. Cincinnati and Chicago were discussing Robert as recently as last week and this past weekend, per Rosenthal, with infield prospect Edwin Arroyo among the names who could potentially go back to the Sox. Beyond the difficulty of agreeing on which prospects would be involved, the two parties didn’t see eye to eye on how much money the White Sox should include to cover some of the $17MM still guaranteed to Robert. (There’s also a $2MM buyout on his 2026 club option.) At this point, the Sox aren’t likely to trade Robert prior to spring training, per the report.

Until recently, it seemed as though the Reds had exhausted the majority — if not the entirety — of their 2025 payroll budget. A late agreement with Main Street Sports/FanDuel Sports Network for their 2025 television broadcasts provided an unexpected bump to president of baseball Nick Krall’s budget for the upcoming season, however. That produced renewed talks with reliever Carlos Estevez — who ultimately agreed to sign with the Royals instead — and likely facilitated the signing of Austin Hays (one year, $5MM) and yesterday’s acquisition of Taylor Rogers, whom the Reds will pay $6MM next year. (The Giants are covering the other $6MM of his 2025 salary.)

That’s $11MM in new payroll added by the Reds (a net $9.5MM over two league-minimum players) since that late TV deal was brokered. Robert alone is guaranteed more than that; even if the White Sox had been willing to kick in $6MM to bring the price down to the same $11MM the Reds wound up spending this past week, that would’ve only addressed one spot on the roster. Cincinnati would still be looking for more bullpen help and presumably doing so with at a much lower rate than the $6MM they’ll end up paying to Rogers.

While Arroyo is just one of the names the two parties discussed, it’s worth noting that like Robert, he’s a volatile player who’s difficult to evaluate at present. The 21-year-old middle infielder was a second-round pick out of Puerto Rico by the Mariners back in 2021 and was one of the key prospects shipped to the Reds in 2022’s Luis Castillo blockbuster. He ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects in each of the past two offseasons but suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder last spring. That injury required surgery and wiped out his entire 2024 campaign.

Arroyo recovered in time to play in last year’s Arizona Fall League but in 18 games slashed just .253/.309/.333. That’s not a big enough sample to make a meaningful evaluation, of course, but it’s nonetheless a far cry from the 2022 production that helped catapult him onto the national prospect radar; that season saw Arroyo hit a combined .293/.366/.480 as an 18-year-old primarily facing much older and more experienced competition in A-ball.

A trade involving Robert could yet come together, but the challenges encountered by both the Giants and the Reds in their efforts to pry him from Chicago will persist. The Sox don’t want to take a middling return for a player who could command a genuine prospect haul if healthy. Any potential trade partner will be reluctant to trade its very best talent in exchange for a player who missed two months with a hip injury and was 16% worse than an average hitter in 2024 — even if he popped 38 homers as recently as 2023. The money owed to Robert is a bargain if he’s healthy, but that’s a major if. Plus, many teams have spent the vast majority of their offseason budget by this point on the calendar.

Back in late November, one rival general manager who’d spoken to the Sox about Robert rather plainly laid out the difficulty in working out a trade, telling USA Today’s Bob Nightengale at the time: “You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along, but the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

The Sox weren’t in an entirely dissimilar situation with Dylan Cease a year ago at this time. Cease, who had two seasons of club control remaining then, had finished runner-up in 2022 American League Cy Young voting before a pedestrian 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA with a one-mile drop in average fastball velocity and a corresponding dip in strikeout rate. He came back with a vengeance in spring training with stuff that looked dominant enough to generate a second act on his trade market. The Padres wound up acquiring him on March 13.

It’s possible a similar situation could play out with Robert. If he looks healthy and dynamic early in Cactus League play, perhaps there’ll be some renewed interest and diminished trepidation from interested teams wary about the explosive outfielder’s health.

If not in spring training, even a few weeks of strong play early in the 2025 campaign could pique the interest of other teams. That could create a situation similar to the one that saw the Marlins trade Luis Arraez (also to the Padres) early last May. Miami’s catastrophic start to the season effectively eliminated them from playoff contention just weeks into the 2024 season. The ChiSox already know full well they won’t contend in 2025. If Robert gets out to a torrid start and looks like the 2023 version of himself, putting him on the market in late April or early May would reduce the risk of an injury occurring in the months leading up to the trade deadline while also giving a trade partner an extra few months of production.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out last night when discussing the Guardians’ challenges in acquiring a center fielder, there simply haven’t been many — or really, any — impact options on the trade or free agent markets at the position over the past couple years. That applies not only to the Guards but also to the Giants, Reds, Phillies and other clubs that have sought center field upgrades recently. Clubs like the Red Sox, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Royals, Pirates and Astros have also coveted right-handed bats and/or outfielders. Any could have interest in a revitalized Robert.

For now, the Sox’ focus will be on getting and keeping Robert as healthy as possible. If a strong spring or April showing rekindles his trade market, the past interest from both San Francisco and Cincinnati will be worth bearing in mind as the South Siders field new offers.

Reds Acquire Taylor Rogers

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The Reds have acquired left-hander Taylor Rogers and cash considerations from the Giants, per announcements from both clubs. Minor league right-hander Braxton Roxby heads the other way. The cash going to Cincinnati is reportedly $6MM, half of Rogers’ salary this year. The Reds designated right-hander Owen White for assignment to open a 40-man spot.

Rogers, 34, has been one of the better lefty relievers in the league for quite a while now. Dating back to 2016, he has thrown 490 2/3 innings, allowing 3.34 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 28.2% of batters faced, limited walks to a 7% clip and also kept balls in play on the ground at a 46.3% rate.

He has occasionally been deployed as a closer, with a couple of seasons with 30-plus saves, but has mostly been a really good setup guy. He has 98 holds in his career. From 2016 through 2024, only ten pitchers racked up more holds. Héctor Neris is the only guy with both more saves and more holds than Rogers in that span.

The southpaw has spent the past two years with the Giants. He signed a three-year, $33MM deal with that club going into 2023. That was broken up into a $9MM salary in 2023, followed by $12MM in the final two seasons. That signing allowed him to play on the same team as his brother, righty Tyler Rogers.

As a Giant, the left-handed Rogers continued to post good numbers overall. He had a 3.83 ERA in 2023 and dropped that to 2.40 last year. It’s possible that the club saw some yellow flags under the hood last year, however. He averaged 93 miles per hour on his sinker, a career low and the third straight season in which that number dropped. He was at 95.7 mph in 2021 but then went to 94.3 and 93.6 in the next two years. His strikeout rate has also been falling in step, going from 35.7% to 30.7, 29.6 and 25.7% over the past four seasons.

He did still manage a shiny ERA in 2024 but there may have been some luck there. His 81.8% strand rate was well above the 72.1% league average, perhaps why his 3.75 FIP and 3.47 SIERA were both more than a run higher than his ERA. The Giants placed him on waivers in August last year, meaning any club could have just grabbed him if they were willing to take on the remainder of his contract, but no club did.

Those adjusted numbers are still decent, so it’s a sensible pickup for the Reds. Their relievers had a collective 4.09 ERA last year, placing them 18th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. They lost Buck Farmer and Justin Wilson to free agency. They traded Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for catcher Jose Trevino.

Adding to that bullpen has clearly been part of their plans. They have been connected to reliever Carlos Estévez multiple times this offseason but it’s been unclear how much spending capacity they have.

A couple of weeks ago, they signed a new TV deal with Main Street Sports, which prompted president of baseball operations Nick Krall to say that the club could perhaps direct some extra funding into building the roster. In recent days, they have agreed to sign Austin Hays to a $5MM deal and acquire Rogers as well as $6MM of his $12MM salary. They also agreed to a minor league deal with Wade Miley, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery but would make a $2.5MM base salary if he eventually makes the club.

Bringing in Rogers will hopefully upgrade the bullpen and give them a third lefty alongside Brent Suter and Sam Moll. Whether they still have funds available to go after Estévez or any other free agent remains to be seen. RosterResource estimates the club’s payroll at $110MM, about $10MM above last year. As of this writing, that doesn’t include Rogers, so adding in $6MM for him should push them up to a $16MM difference.

For the Giants, they have essentially cut the left-handed portion of their bullpen in half. Rogers and Erik Miller were the only southpaw relievers to toss more than an inning for the club last year, so they are now down to just Miller.

As mentioned, Rogers has been declining in terms of velocity and strikeouts, so perhaps the Giants expected those trends to continue and just wanted to get out now. In the process, they have saved $6MM, which could be redirected towards another part of the roster. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number at $211MM, $30MM below the base threshold of $241MM. They paid the tax last year but it’s unclear if they plan to do so again in 2025. They have been connected to notable free agents such as Pete Alonso and Jack Flaherty this winter, so perhaps the savings could help them land one of those guys or some other free agent of note.

Of course, they are also adding some young talent in the form of Roxby. 26 in March, Roxby was signed by the Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020. Due to the pandemic, that year featured a truncated draft of just five rounds.

Exclusively a reliever in his career thus far, Roxby has thrown 169 2/3 innings across multiple levels over the past four years with a 4.30 ERA. His 10.4% walk rate is a bit high but his 30.6% strikeout rate quite strong. Back in April, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him as the #38 prospect in the Cincinnati system, noting that he’s a sidearming righty with two breaking balls. Geoff Pontes and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America highlighted Roxby ahead of the 2023 Rule 5 draft but he didn’t get selected that year nor in 2024.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Rogers-Roxby swap. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com first reported the $6MM heading to the Reds.

Tigers Sign Tommy Kahnle

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The Tigers are adding to one of their primary strengths from the 2024 season, announcing the signing of veteran right-handed reliever Tommy Kahnle to a one-year, $7.75MM contract. Detroit designated Alex Faedo for assignment in a corresponding move. Kahnle is represented by the Ballengee Group.

Kahnle, 35, has been oft-injured in recent years but when healthy has been one of the top setup arms in the sport on a rate basis. He’s only pitched 97 frames dating back to 2020, but 83 of those innings have come over the past two seasons. And, since 2020, he touts a pristine 2.41 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. He’s been placed into 38 save situations and tallied 32 holds and four saves along the way, only being saddled with two blown saves in that span.

Though Kahnle is right-handed, he carries neutral platoon splits because he possesses one of the game’s best changeups. That helps him mitigate damage against lefties, and the pitch is effective enough for him to use in right-on-right settings as well. He’s held fellow righties to a .206/.307/.343 slash in his career and seen lefties hit him at a similar .215/.295/.359 pace.

Because his changeup is so effective, Kahnle has taken the already frequent use of the pitch to new heights over the past three years. Since 2022, he’s thrown his changeup a comical 74.6% of the time on the mound. He famously threw 61 consecutive changeups as the Yankees progressed through the postseason this year. It’s hard to blame him for leaning on the pitch so heavily; opponents have slashed just .175/.236/.287 against Kahnle’s changeup in his career — including an even worse .157/.227/.264 slash in 2024.

Kahnle adds a seasoned setup arm to a Tigers relief corps on which manager A.J. Hinch leaned heavily down the stretch. Late in the season, Detroit was typically only using Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson as starters, following that duo with a series of bullpen games where any pitcher could be called upon at any time. The addition of Kahnle might add a bit more order and structure to what Hinch termed “pitching chaos.” Detroit doesn’t have a set closer at the moment, but Kahnle’s experience in high-leverage spots should put him in that mix along with Beau Brieske and Jason Foley, who paced the team with 28 saves in 2024.

With Kahnle, Brieske, Foley, Tyler Holton and Will Vest likely to handle late-inning work, the Tigers’ bullpen is largely taking shape. They’ll have Kenta Maeda in a long role as he looks to potentially pitch his way back into the rotation mix. Sean Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, Brant Hurter and former closer Alex Lange will be in the mix for innings as well.

The $7.75MM guarantee on Kahnle’s deal will take the Tigers to a payroll just shy of $119MM. That stands as an increase of roughly $15MM over the team’s 2024 levels but still sits nowhere close to the franchise-record $200MM mark reached under late owner Mike Ilitch (whose son, Chris, is now the team’s chairman and CEO).

The Tigers have recently been connected to seasoned late-inning relievers, specifically names with closing experience. They’ve also been prominently involved in third baseman Alex Bregman’s market. Given that interest, it would stand to reason there’s at least room for one more bullpen addition if the team prefers — the cost of Kahnle plus a second reliever would still fall well shy of even one year of Bregman’s salary — though it’s unclear whether the team has earmarked some potential funds for the longtime Houston third baseman or if the deal with Kahnle is the start of a pivot in a new direction.

The Tigers have added three free agents this offseason, though none has inked a deal longer than a year in length. Right-hander Alex Cobb and infielder Gleyber Torres both agreed to one-year deals with a $15MM guarantee.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the two sides were close to a deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added that it’d be for one year. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the finalized agreement and the $7.75MM guarantee.

Pirates Sign Adam Frazier

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Jan. 29: The Pirates formally announced their reunion with Frazier this morning.

Jan. 28: Adam Frazier is headed back to the Pirates. The McKinnis Sports client is reportedly in agreement with his old club on a one-year, $1.525MM contract. The team has yet to announce the signing.

Frazier, now 33 years old, had a strong six-year run with the Buccos to begin his career, slashing a combined .283/.346/.420 in 2232 plate appearances while posting quality overall defensive grades at both second base and in left field.

That stretch culminated with a huge .324/.388/.448 slash in the first half of the ’21 season, with Frazier logging a career-low 10.7% strikeout rate along the way. That resulted in an All-Star nod for Frazier and helped ramp up trade interest while the Pirates operated as deadline sellers. The Padres wound up acquiring Frazier, who was controllable through the 2022 season, in exchange for outfielder Jack Suwinski, utilityman Tucupita Marcano and righty Michell Miliano.

Things didn’t pan out for Frazier in San Diego, however, and he’s never gotten his bat back on track. While he hit for a decent average down the stretch with the Friars, his walk rate and already limited power output tumbled. In 211 plate appearances, he batted .267/.327/.335 — about 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. Rather than pay him a raise in arbitration that winter, the Padres traded him to the Mariners, where his offensive struggles continued.

In three and a half seasons since leaving the Pirates, Frazier has suited up for the Padres, Mariners, Orioles and Royals. That covers a span of 1562 plate appearances, during which Frazier sports a tepid .236/.301/.336 batting line (82 wRC+). His 2024 season in Kansas City was the worst of his career; he batted only .202/.282/.294 in 294 plate appearances with the Royals last year and fanned in a career-worst 20.1% of his plate appearances.

Though his offense has continued to flounder, Frazier posted solid defensive grades at second base and in the outfield corners last year. His strikeout rate may have been a career-high but was still a couple percentage points lower than league-average, while his 7.5% walk rate was within one percentage point of average. The Pirates have not only a righty-heavy bench mix but more broadly a roster and lineup that skews right-handed. Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds are the only lefty bats assured of frequent playing time in Pittsburgh. Frazier will give the Pirates a familiar face and a contact-oriented left-handed bat to slot into the bench group.

With Pittsburgh still facing uncertainty at both second base and in right field, Frazier is a cheap backup plan at either spot. He’s not going to be Plan A for the Pirates at either position, but he can step in at second base if a group of infielders including Nick Yorke, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero struggle and force versatile Isiah Kiner-Falefa into regular work at shortstop. Reynolds is locked into one outfield corner, but the other options on the 40-man roster right now include Suwinski (who struggled immensely in 2024), Billy Cook and out-of-options Joshua Palacios.

Frazier is the latest in a characteristically budget-friendly string of free agent signings for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has brought franchise icon Andrew McCutchen back on another one-year, $5MM contract — his third straight $5MM deal with the Bucs — which stands as their largest financial expenditure of the winter. The Pirates have also added lefties Caleb Ferguson ($3MM) and Tim Mayza ($1.15MM) on one-year deals, although Mayza’s deal was just agreed to yesterday and has yet to be formally announced by the team. RosterResource currently projects an $80.5MM payroll, including Frazier and Mayza, with about $104MM of CBT obligations. The Pirates have long been rumored to be seeking a corner outfield upgrade but have yet to bring in any outside help to fill that glaring need.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Pirates were in agreement with Frazier on a major league deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the $1.525MM salary.

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