White Sox, A’s “Hit Snag” In Brett Lawrie Trade Talks
5:23pm: The ChiSox and A’s have “hit a snag” in trade talks surrounding Lawrie, reports Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area. While a deal could eventually be worked out, the team wasn’t able to agree on the prospect package that would return to Oakland.
WEDNESDAY, 10:18am: It seems that the White Sox aren’t yet ready to strike an agreement, Slusser tweets, but she adds that the sides are still working.
1:26am: The trade appears to be near to completion, and the Athletics seem likely to receive two minor leaguers, although the two teams have not yet agreed on which ones, Slusser writes.
TUESDAY: The White Sox and Athletics are having serious trade discussions focusing on infielder Brett Lawrie, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Slusser recently reported that Lawrie was likely to be traded following Oakland’s acquisition of Jed Lowrie from Houston, and the White Sox have needs at both second base and third base — each positions at which Lawrie has experience.
Lawrie, 26 in January, batted .260/.299/.407 with 16 homers and five steals in a career-high 602 plate appearances/149 games for the A’s last season after coming over from the Blue Jays in the Josh Donaldson blockbuster. He’d most likely give the White Sox a much-needed everyday option at third base, where the upper levels of the minor leagues are thin after former top prospect Matt Davidson endured a dismal campaign for the second consecutive season (.203/.293/.375).
Chicago would be dealing for two years of Lawrie, who projects to make $3.9MM next year (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) in his second trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. From a defensive standpoint, Lawrie graded out excellently at third base early in his career but has seen metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating sour on his skills over the past three seasons. Then again, he’s also dealt with myriad injuries, missing significant time with a pair of oblique injuries, two broken fingers and an ankle sprain, among other, more minor maladies.
If completed, this would mark the second straight season in which A’s president Billy Beane and White Sox GM Rick Hahn have brokered a notable trade at the Winter Meetings, as the Jeff Samardzija trade that sent Marcus Semien and three others to Oakland was completed one year ago at this time.
Pirates, Mets Swap Neil Walker, Jon Niese
5:18pm: The Mets have formally announced the trade, which is indeed a one-for-one swap of the two veteran players.
3:31pm: The Mets have reached agreement on a deal for Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. It is pending a review of medicals and “small other matters,” he adds. Lefty Jon Niese is heading to Pittsburgh in the deal, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets.
Both players have long been said to be available. The move allows the teams to swap similarly-priced assets to fill needs.
In Walker, the Mets will add a thirty-year-old switch-hitter who does much of what the team hoped to find in Ben Zobrist. Better still, Walker is much younger and will not require a commitment beyond the coming season. His 2016 salary is not yet determined, but MLBTR projects that he’ll earn $10.7MM via arbitration.
Though Walker did not quite live up to his fairly high standards last year, he was nevertheless quite productive at the plate. All said, he owns a .272/.338/.431 lifetime bating line, compiled in nearly 3,500 plate appearances, and has averaged about 16 long balls a year since he became a regular. He’s rarely strayed too far above or below that mark, which is quite productive for a middle infielder.
Walker profiles more as an average to below-average defender, but his bat has been good enough to make up the difference. In the aggregate, he’s something like a 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player, making him quite a useful piece. It is worth noting, however, that Walker’s traditionally poor performance against left-handed pitching got even worse last year, making him a candidate for part-time platoon support.
Niese, meanwhile, will presumably take up a rotation spot for the Bucs. He’s owed $9MM for the coming season and can be controlled via two options priced at $10MM and $11MM, each of which include $500K buyouts.
The 29-year-old southpaw was not at his best in 2015, as he worked to a 4.13 ERA in 176 2/3 innings. But he produced at quite a strong level for the three preceding seasons, with peripherals largely supporting his results. He produced a 3.49 ERA, with 6.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 to go with a 49.0% groundball rate, in 521 innings over 2012-14. ERA estimators saw a bit of luck baked in, but he still ended the span with a 3.69 FIP and xFIP to go with a 3.85 SIERA mark.
Pittsburgh has, of course, had plenty of success in getting excellent value out of veteran rotation pieces. It’s not fair to call Niese a bounce-back type of asset, since he was still plenty serviceable last year, but he represents a buy-low option after his sub-par 2015. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that Pittsburgh will have the potential for some down-the-line upside, as Niese’s options could look like solid pick-ups if he can return to his prior form.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Dangling Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski, Starters
The Padres are shopping young outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Travis Jankowski in trade talks, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. San Diego also continues to discuss Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner in trades, with Cashner being “particularly pushed” by the club.
It is not clear from the report what San Diego is looking to do with its two outfield prospects, both of whom rate among the better young assets in the system. Lin notes that the club could just be “gauging interest,” but the addition of Jon Jay did reduce the immediate need for outfield help and the club could look to continue the asset-shifting moves it’s made already this winter.
Jankowski reached the majors last year, struggling in limited exposure, but put up a strong .335/.413/.425 batting line in the upper minors. And the 23-year-old Renfroe exploded upon reaching Triple-A late in the year, ending the season with a .272/.321/.462 slash and twenty home runs.
Of course, we’ve long heard talk that the Padres could consider a move involving their starters, but Shields has drawn more recent attention. Of course, with A.J. Preller at the helm, it has proven nearly impossible to predict what direction the organization will take.
Cubs Sign John Lackey
DECEMBER 9: Lackey gets a full no-trade clause, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Brett Taylor of Baseball Prospectus had tweeted that the deal included at least some such protection.
DECEMBER 8: Chicago has announced the signing.
DECEMBER 4: The Cubs have reached agreement with righty John Lackey on a two-year deal worth $32MM, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). Lackey will receive $16MM in each of the next two seasons, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown had reported earlier today that the Cubs were intensely interested in Lackey and that the two sides were discussing possibilities for two- and three-year deals. Lackey is represented by Steve Hilliard of Hilliard Sports Management.
Lackey will be a mid-rotation starter in Chicago, pitching behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester (a friend from his days with the Red Sox). He had a terrific season with the Cubs’ division rivals in St. Louis in 2015, throwing 218 innings and posting a 2.77 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He pitched for the league minimum last season due to a clause in the contract he initially signed with the Sox (although the Cardinals did add $2MM in bonuses); it appears his new deal will pay him closer to the $15MM-plus he received in the other years of that contract.
The 37-year-old Lackey is no spring chicken, so it’s no surprise that the Cubs aren’t making a lengthy commitment. After having Tommy John surgery and missing the 2012 season, though, Lackey has been very durable, making a total of 93 starts and pitching over 600 innings in the three years since. His velocity and peripheral numbers have also remained fairly constant in that time frame. That’s not to say, however, that he’s likely to post another 2.77 ERA in Chicago next season — like many Cardinals pitchers last season, his numbers with runners in scoring position were outstanding (opposing batters hit .200/.296/.273 against him). Lackey seems unlikely to sustain those numbers, although he would still be very productive even if he gained half a run or so in ERA.
The Cubs had previously been connected to starting pitchers like Jeff Samardzija (via free agency) and Shelby Miller (via the trade market). They also met with David Price before Price agreed to terms with the Red Sox. Obviously, Lackey costs significantly less than Price did or Samardzija seems likely to, and will not cost the Cubs any prospects other than a draft pick. (Lackey rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, so the Cubs will lose their first-round pick in the 2016, 28th overall. The Cardinals will gain a pick at the end of the first round.) With Lackey in the fold, the Cubs’ rotation lines up as Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Athletics To Sign John Axford
The Athletics have struck a deal with free agent reliever John Axford, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. He’ll join Oakland so long as he passes a physical, says Slusser, who had reported that the deal was close last night.
Oakland will promise Axford $10MM over two years, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. The veteran righty will also receive an incentive package of up to $4MM based on games finished.
Axford was cut loose by the Rockies, who decided his projected $6.5MM arbitration salary was too rich. But the soon-to-be 33-year-old veteran had a strong year overall in Colorado, in spite of an unexciting 4.20 ERA.
That earned run mark was obviously inflated by pitching at Coors Field, and advanced metrics viewed Axford as a solid contributor over his 55 2/3 innings. He posted a 3.57 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA after compiling 10.0 K/9 against 5.2 BB/9 and a career-best 56.1% groundball rate.
As those numbers would suggest, Axford still has rather pronounced struggles limiting the free passes. But he has managed to be effective in spite of that. And he has retained his huge fastball as he’s aged, checking in with a 95.9 mph average heater last year.
For the A’s, Axford represents one of several recent bullpen additions as the organization’s relief corps makeover continues. Oakland has already signed Ryan Madson, dealt for Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski, and shipped away Evan Scribner.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Fielding Interest In Numerous Key Players, Including George Springer
The Astros are fielding interest in several of their most enticing players, according to a report from Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle.
That includes top young outfielder George Springer, who Drellich says the club is “open to moving … if the haul is big enough.” Per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter), though, Houston has not discussed Springer in any trades.
Houston has heard from teams looking at righties Vince Velasquez and Lance McCullers Jr., too, though the team is more willing to consider dealing the former. And the Cubs are among the clubs that have interest in Carlos Gomez, though Drellich says there’s a hesitancy to part with him.
In terms of possible targets, the Chronicle report notes that the ‘Stros have discussed Carlos Carrasco with the Indians, as Zack Meisel of the Plain Dealer previously tweeted. He’d obviously require a significant return to acquire. And Houston is also talking with the Yankees about closer Andrew Miller.
All in all, it seems there are numerous possibilities in play for the Astros, with the report citing a focus on pitching. It would remain extremely surprising if a player like Springer is traded, but the fact that the team is willing to consider the possibility illustrates the potential for major asset shifting. It goes without saying, of course, that he’d only be parted with in a deal for a truly significant player.
Astros, Dodgers Discussing Andrew Miller With Yankees
The Astros and Dodgers are showing interest in Yankees lefty Andrew Miller, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Those clubs have long seemed like possible fits, but the involvement of the latter is particularly notable given that the Dodgers had been lined up to acquire Aroldis Chapman from the Reds before his disturbing domestic violence allegations emerged.
Both Houston and L.A. were heavily involved in pursuing Miller last winter, with the Astros said to have made him the largest offer. But Miller chose New York, in part for family reasons, and signed a four-year, $36MM pact that includes equal, $9MM annual salaries.
Just one year into that contract, the remaining commitment looks quite appealing. Miller put up another outstanding season, throwing 61 2/3 frames of 2.04 ERA ball and racking up 14.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. Those numbers are nearly exact matches for his breakout 2014 campaign, and there’s little question that he’d command an even larger commitment were he back on the open market this winter.
Giants Sign Jeff Samardzija
DECEMBER 9: The Giants have officially announced the signing.
DECEMBER 5, 2:20pm: Samardzija’s contract breakdown is provided by Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). The righty will receive a $9MM salary in 2016 then $18MM in each of the next four years. Samardzija gets a $3MM bonus immediately and then another $6MM in signing bonus money will be spread out over the last four years in equal $1.5MM installments. The no-trade clause allows Samardzija to block deals to eight teams per year.
12:06pm: The Giants have agreed to sign right-hander Jeff Samardzija to a five-year deal, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic reports (Twitter link). Samardzija will earn $90MM from the contract, according to Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown (via Twitter). The contract contains a limited no-trade clause (as per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman) and is pending a physical.
With the Giants coming up short in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, they pivoted towards another of the top remaining arms on the free agent market. The Giants were known to be looking for pitching help this winter and they were connected to Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and former Giant Mike Leake in various rumors throughout the offseason.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Giants add yet another top starter to the rotation, as was speculated in the wake of the Greinke signing. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that the Giants are still interested in Leake and also like free agent Hisashi Iwakuma, so Samardzija could perhaps just be the first step in the team’s rotation upgrades.
In signing Samardzija, the Giants add a workhorse who has averaged 216 innings in each of the last three seasons. This type of durability is sorely needed for a San Francisco rotation that has a lot of question marks behind ace Madison Bumgarner. Jake Peavy was effective but limited by injuries in 2015, Matt Cain is coming off consecutive injury-shortened seasons and was very ineffective last year, and rookie Chris Heston is still something of an unknown quantity as he enters his sophomore year. Even more depth could be added if the Giants indeed do land another starter, as Heston could conceivably take over the swingman role left by the non-tendered Yusmeiro Petit.
Of course, Samardzija himself isn’t a complete sure thing given that he’s coming off easily the worst of his four full seasons as a starting pitcher. The righty posted a 4.96 ERA, 3.33 K/BB rate and 6.9 K/9 over 214 innings with the White Sox in 2015, allowing a league-high 29 homers and 118 earned runs. That K/9 total was Samardzija’s lowest since 2010 and his grounder rate also plummeted to 39% after sitting at a very solid 49.2% in 2013-14.
The Giants clearly have faith that Samardzija can rebound in 2016 and beyond, however, and that he’ll return to his impressive 2012-14 form. Samardzija turns 31 in January and has many fewer innings on his arm than most pitchers his age, thanks to extra years spent as a reliever and a relatively late start to his baseball career due to his stint as a star wide receiver for Notre Dame. “The Shark” will also now be working in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly stadiums (AT&T Park) and will have the Giants’ excellent defense behind him. Samardzija’s 2015 numbers could be partially explained by the combination of the brutal White Sox defense, hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field and perhaps even just pitching in the American League, though the righty was excellent in his half-season with the A’s in 2014.
It may seem unusual that a pitcher coming off such a rough season would land a $90MM contract and yet MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected Samardzija for a five-year, $80MM deal (also correctly picking him to land with the Giants, to boot). That extra $10MM bump may well have come due to the speed in which free agent aces are flying off the board. With well-heeled teams like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Cubs still in need of pitching, it bodes well for Cueto, Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda and other remaining free agent starters that the supply of available arms is so quickly dwindling.
Since Samardzija rejected a qualifying offer from the White Sox, the Giants will have to give up their first-round draft pick (18th overall). Chicago receives a compensation pick between the first and second rounds.
Photo courtesy of Kelvin Kuo/USA Today Sports Images
Mariners Acquire Adam Lind
Another day, another trade for Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto. The Mariners and Brewers have announced a trade sending first baseman Adam Lind to Seattle in exchange for minor league right-handers Carlos Herrera, Freddy Peralta and Daniel Missaki.
Following the trades of Mark Trumbo and Logan Morrison, the Mariners had a clear need for an upgrade at first base, and Lind should fill that void nicely. The 32-year-old is coming off a strong season with the Brewers in which he batted .277/.360/.460 with 20 home runs in 572 trips to the plate. Milwaukee made the easy call to exercise his $8MM club option this offseason, though the expectation has long been that the rebuilding Brewers would look to trade the final year of club control over Lind, who will be a free agent next winter.
That, of course, makes Lind a short-term upgrade for the Mariners, who will probably also look to add a platoon partner for him (although an in-house option like Jesus Montero could function well in that capacity). Lind batted just .221/.277/.298 against left-handed pitching in 2015 and was limited to 112 plate appearances against same-handed pitching, as his troubles in that regard are a known factor in his game. In parts of 10 seasons at the Major League level, Lind has batted just .213/.259/.327 against lefties. On the flip-side of that ugly split, however, is an impressive .293/.354/.509 batting line against right-handed pitching. Assuming a strict platoon deployment, Lind figures to give the Mariners a nice boost in on-base percentage at first base, and one can imagine a platoon of him and a righty with some notable pop — Mike Napoli, for instance, is a speculative fit with the Mariners — approximating or exceeding the power output that Trumbo would have delivered in a full-time capacity.
The acquisition gives new Mariners manager Scott Servais the option to run out a lineup that features Lind, Robinson Cano, Ketel Marte, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, Leonys Martin and Nori Aoki against right-handed pitchers. Servais will have the option to deploy Montero (or a yet-unsigned platoon partner for Lind) and Franklin Gutierrez against left-handed pitching. The Mariners, of course, already have one of the game’s more potent right-handed bats in the form of Nelson Cruz.
The addition of Lind continues what has been one of the most active offseasons for any GM in recent memory, as Jerry Dipoto has wildly reshaped the Seattle roster in his first three months on the job. In addition to trading Trumbo and Morrison, Dipoto has also shipped out Brad Miller, Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, Carson Smith and multiple prospects in order to bring in Martin, Nate Karns, Wade Miley, Joaquin Benoit, Steve Clevenger, Anthony Bass, Luis Sardinas and Evan Scribner. Additionally, he’s re-signed Gutierrez and signed other free agents such as Aoki, Chris Iannetta and Justin De Fratus as he looks to reshape a roster that won a disappointing 76 games in 2015.
As for the Brewers, they’ll receive a trio of young arms that didn’t rank in the Mariners’ top 30 prospect on MLB.com’s end-of-season rankings, although each is exceptionally young and has a good bit of time to rise up the prospect ranks in Milwaukee.
Peralta, 19, did rank as Seattle’s No. 24 prospect in the eyes of Baseball America one winter ago. He spent his second season with the team’s Rookie-level affiliate in Arizona this season, and while he logged an uninspiring 4.11 ERA in 57 innings, he also posted an electric 67-to-8 K/BB ratio while spending most of his time (nine of 11 appearances) as a starting pitcher.
Seattle only signed Herrera, 18, in July of 2014. BA’s Ben Badler wrote at the time that Herrera’s fastball was topping out at 90 mph as a 16-year-old, but his projectable 6’3″, 170-pound frame gave reason to believe that more velocity would come as he filled out. He also noted that Herrera had a 72-74 mph curve ball in his arsenal. Herrera debuted in the Dominican Summer League this past season, pitching to a 3.26 ERA with 73 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 80 innings.
Missaki, 19, is a Brazilian-born right-hander who, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets, underwent Tommy John surgery back in May. Despite his young age, Missaki opened the season in the Class-A Midwest League and looked impressive in six starts, pitching to a 3.41 ERA with a 34-to-5 K/BB ratio in 34 1/3 innings against markedly older competition. He’ll presumably be ready to take the mound this summer and could see some more action at Class-A upon a return to health.
The three prospects acquired here demonstrate that new Brewers GM David Stearns is committed to restocking the farm and won’t be shy about moving Major League assets for players that are years away from contributing in the Majors. Each of the pitchers acquired has displayed impressive control for a young pitcher, which could be a point of emphasis in future trades as the Brewers look to return to prominence in an absolutely stacked National League Central Division.
Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports initially reported that the Mariners were pursuing Lind and making progress in talks. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the deal was in place (Twitter link). Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM said the Brewers would get three minor leaguers (links to Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that all three were pitchers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
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