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Diamondbacks Sign Zach Davies

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March 24: The D-backs have announced the signing. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Arizona placed right-hander J.B. Bukauskas on the 60-day injured list. Bukauskas suffered a Grade 2 teres major strain earlier this week and is expected to be sidelined for “months” with the injury.

March 22, 10:54am: Davies is guaranteed $1.75MM on the deal, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He’ll earn a $1.5MM base salary and is also guaranteed at least a $250K buyout on next year’s option. The contract allows him to earn an additional $2.5MM based on his number of games started. The 2023 option is a mutual option, Heyman reports.

8:58am: The D-backs have reached a one-year agreement with free-agent righty Zach Davies, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There’s also a 2023 option on the contract. Davies, a client of the Boras Corporation, can earn up to $4.5MM this year, per Heyman. Robert Murray of FanSided first tweeted that the two sides were close to a deal.

Zach Davies | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Davies, who turned 29 last month, was one of the younger free-agent starters on the market but also hit free agency in need of a rebound campaign after a lackluster 2021 showing with the Cubs. Acquired from San Diego in Chicago’s salary dump of Yu Darvish, Davies made 32 starts and covered 148 innings but did so while limping to a career-worst 5.78 ERA. Among the 129 pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, Davies’ 17.1% strikeout rate ranked 116th, while his 11.2% walk rate was the sixth-highest mark in that same set.

Just a year prior, during the shortened 2020 campaign, Davies had the finest season of his career. Obviously it wasn’t a full slate of 30-plus starts, but Davies nevertheless pitched 69 1/3 innings over a dozen appearances and turned in an outstanding 2.73 ERA with vastly superior strikeout (22.8%) and walk (6.9%) rates to those that he displayed in his lone year with the Cubs.

Davies has never missed bats at that 2020 level in any other season, which perhaps makes it something of a small-sample anomaly, but it should also be noted that he’s never struggled with his command like he did in 2021. To the contrary, prior to this past season’s surprising uptick in free passes, Davies offset his pedestrian strikeout rates and lack of velocity with strong command of the zone. From 2016-20, he walked just 6.7% of his opponents — a mark that tied him for 48th among 181 qualified pitchers.

In all likelihood, Davies’ true performance level lies somewhere between the extremes he posted in 2020 and 2021. He’s worked to a career 4.14 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate and a 45.3% grounder rate in 831 2/3 innings between Milwaukee, San Diego and Chicago. Davies doesn’t miss many bats, given that his arsenal is headlined by a sinker that averages 88.2 mph, but he’s better than average when it comes to inducing weak contact. Outside of 2021, he hasn’t been particularly homer-prone in his career, either.

Arizona’s rotation is currently projected to include Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly and perhaps non-roster invitee Dan Straily, who signed a minor league deal during the lockout after a solid two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Gallen, however, is nursing some shoulder troubles at the moment, and Weaver has battled his own share of injury problems in recent years. Both Weaver and Kelly have also garnered trade interest at various points, though there’s no current indication the Snakes are weighing a move involving any member of their staff.

The signing of Davies could push Straily to a long-relief role or perhaps even to Triple-A Reno to begin the season, but teams are going to be cautious with their starters early in the season following a truncated Spring Training that did not give pitchers a full ramp-up period. It’s likely that there will be innings to go around for all six of those rotation candidates — to say nothing of upper-minors options like Tyler Gilbert, Corbin Martin, Humberto Mejia and Humberto Castellanos.

Mets Eyeing Multiple Cubs Players, Trevor Story

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The Mets and Cubs have discussed various permutations of deals including right-hander Zach Davies and one of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets are looking for pitching depth and a bat, with Bryant, Baez and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story among their targets. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders tweets that the Mets are “very” interested in Story, though Saunders has also suggested that if the Rockies trade Story, it’ll likely happen close to the actual deadline.

Reports connecting the Mets to Bryant, in particular, date back to the offseason. He’d give the Mets the right-handed bat they covet and a defensive upgrade over the reportedly available J.D. Davis at third base, in addition to providing a corner outfield option depending on injuries or pitching matchups. Baez, meanwhile, could step in for the currently injured Francisco Lindor until he’s able to return next month, then slide over to second base. That same scenario could apply to Story.

Of the three bats in question, Bryant is having far and away the best all-around season. The former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is slashing .267/.358/.503 with 18 home runs. Bryant endured a miserable slump in June, collecting just nine hits in 88 plate appearances and going all month without a multi-hit game, but he’s bounced back in July with a hearty .290/.405/.516 showing. He’s earning $19.5MM in 2021 and comes with the highest price tag of this high-profile trio.

Baez, earning $11.65MM in his final year of club control, has shown the most power of the bunch but also the most concerning levels of plate discipline. He’s ripped 22 homers, but as his .248/.292/.484 slash shows, his on-base abilities (or lack thereof) are somewhat troublesome. Baez has walked at just a 4.2 percent clip this year, and while he’s always been a free swinger, his current 36.3 strikeout rate is the worst among all qualified hitters. That said, he and Lindor would form a dynamic defensive middle infield tandem.

The 28-year-old Story, like Baez and Bryant, is a free agent at season’s end. He’s having arguably the worst season of his career in 2021, hitting .240/.312/.429 (84 wRC+) with 13 home runs. Eight of those long balls have come since June 20. On the one hand, that’s encouraging. On the other, he’s batted .211 with a .270 OBP in that time. Story’s track record speaks for itself — he batted .292/.355/.554 with 83 home runs from 2018-20 — but he hasn’t really found much consistency in 2021. He’s earning $18.5MM this season.

As for Davies, he’d provide the Mets with a rental starter to help cover innings at the back of the rotation while their top starters mend. Jacob deGrom is currently on the injured list, while neither Noah Syndergaard nor Carlos Carrasco has thrown a pitch for the Mets so far in 2021. (Carrasco is expected to return this weekend.) The need for help at the back of the rotation has been exacerbated by injuries to David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and others.

Even among the Mets’ healthy starters, right-hander Taijuan Walker has begun to struggle, allowing 16 runs in his past 9 1/3 innings. The Mets already went out and acquired Rich Hill, but it seems they’re still understandably keen on stockpiling as much depth as possible for the final couple months of the season — and for a hopeful postseason bid.

The 28-year-old Davies has made 22 starts and pitched to a 4.39 ERA for the Cubs, but he’s averaged fewer than five innings per outing and carries some rather unsightly strikeout and walk rates. Davies’ 16.3 percent strikeout rate is third-lowest among qualified starters, while his 12.1 percent walk rate is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB. That 4.2 K-BB% differential is also last among qualified starters. Given that profile and the fact that he’s a pending free agent with an $8.625MM salary, Davies probably doesn’t carry too much standalone value.

It’s been a mostly quiet deadline season thus far for the Mets, who lead the NL East by three and a half games. The second-place Phillies, however, completed their second improbable walk-off comeback of the week yesterday to continue putting pressure on their rivals. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweeted last night that owner Steve Cohen is pushing his front office to be active and improve the club, so it seems fair to anticipate some fireworks coming from Queens today.

Cubs’ Recent Losing Streak Changes Trade Deadline Outlook

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A couple weeks ago, the Cubs had positioned themselves as likely buyers during trade season. As recently as June 24, Chicago was tied with the Brewers atop the NL Central, nine games over .500. The past two weeks have been an unmitigated disaster for the North Siders, though.

Between June 25 and July 7, the Cubs lost eleven consecutive games. They snapped that streak with a win over the Phillies last night, but Chicago enters tonight’s matchup against Philadelphia with an uninspiring 43-44 record. The Brewers, meanwhile, have rattled off a 10-3 stretch over that time, opening up an 8.5 game lead on Chicago within a 14-day span. (The 45-41 Reds have also since passed the Cubs to jump into second place in the division). Chicago isn’t a whole lot closer in the Wild Card race, trailing the Padres by seven games (with Cincinnati and the Nationals also above them in the standings).

An eleven game losing streak can certainly tank a team’s season, and it seems it might’ve in the Cubs’ case. On June 24, FanGraphs gave Chicago a 35.7% chance of making the playoffs; entering play today, their odds were down to 6.4%.

With a playoff berth all of a sudden seeming highly unlikely, the calculus for the Cubs front office changes considerably, a fact that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged this evening. Speaking with reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago), Hoyer sounded far more willing to move players off the big league roster than he’d been a couple weeks ago.

“Eleven days ago, we were certainly fully on the buying side … and obviously (teams) are now calling to see which players are available,” Hoyer said. “So it’s a very different scenario than we’d expected. Life comes at you fast.” Asked whether the front office is willing to make players available, Hoyer noted their responsibility to consider anything “that can help build the next great Cubs team,” citing their aforementioned dwindling playoff odds.

The implications for the Cubs are obvious. Three of their highest-profile players — Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo — are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season. If the team isn’t contending in 2021, it stands to reason any or all of them could find themselves on the move over the next few weeks.

Certainly, there’d be plenty of interest in every member of that group. Bryant has bounced back from a disappointing 2020 to hit a very strong .269/.349/.498 with sixteen home runs over 324 plate appearances this year. He’s making far more consistent hard contact and barreling balls up at a rate he hasn’t since his MVP peak. Bryant’s production has tailed off after he got out to a scorching start to the year, but his combination of excellent season-long numbers and overall track record would make him perhaps the top player on the trade market were the Cubs to make him available.

Rizzo’s .250/.343/.439 line is down rather significantly from his best seasons. It’s still above-average offensive production, though, and he continues to offer a rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and hard contact (to say nothing of quality defensive marks at first base). Báez has struck out at an alarming 36.6% clip this year en route to a .234 batting average and a .282 on-base percentage. But he’s also popped 21 home runs and slugged .496, and he’s a comfortably above-average defender and baserunner.

Between their career accolades, key roles on the 2016 World Series team, and impending free agencies, that trio figures to draw the most fanfare in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. They’re far from the only players on whose availability other teams might inquire, though. Zach Davies, Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick are useful players set to reach free agency this winter. (Marisnick has a mutual option for 2022, but mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties).

Willson Contreras, controllable via arbitration through 2022, is one of the game’s best catchers and was the subject of trade discussion last offseason. Closer Craig Kimbrel is having an incredible bounceback campaign, pitching to a 0.57 ERA with a 46.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage after struggling mightily between 2019-20. Kimbrel’s $16MM salary for 2021 now looks more than reasonable, as does the matching option on his contract for 2022.

Certainly, it’d be a surprise to see all of those players change teams in the next few weeks. Hoyer pushed back against the idea the Cubs were planning to kick off any sort of full-on rebuild, even as he acknowledged that the 2022 roster will look different from the current iteration. He also noted there’s still some possibility — slim as it now seems — the team plays its way back into contention over the coming weeks.

The Cubs have eighteen more games before the deadline. After facing the Phils tonight, their slate through July 29 consists of seven games against the Cardinals, six against the lowly Diamondbacks, and four against the Reds, one of the teams they’ll need to leapfrog for a postseason spot.

Winning thirteen or fourteen of those contests might get the Cubs sufficiently close to the postseason picture that the front office decides not to orchestrate a sell-off. The core of the current club has been pivotal to arguably the franchise’s most successful five-year run in over a century. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hoyer and his front office give the group as long a leash as possible this summer to try to play their way back into the mix.

Nevertheless, the most likely scenario is that the club’s dreadful past two weeks dug them a hole too deep to come back from. That’s an inescapable reality Hoyer acknowledged this afternoon, one that may result in a few of the franchise’s most important players of recent memory donning new uniforms in a few weeks’ time.

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Bryant, Contreras, Davies

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The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman Kris Bryant, catcher Willson Contreras and right-hander Zach Davies, per reports from Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago and Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. Bryant settled for $19.5MM, while Contreras will make $6.65MM and Davies will earn $8.63MM.

While the salaries of Bryant and Contreras for 2021 are now known, it’s unclear whether either will actually rake in that money as members of the Cubs. They have been stalwarts for the club throughout their careers, but with the Cubs in retooling mode this winter, both players have frequented trade rumors. Of course, this doesn’t look like the optimal time to move Bryant, a former NL MVP who put up uncharacteristically bad numbers in 2020. The Boras Corporation client only has a year of control left, though, so the Cubs may try to get what they can for him before the season starts.

The Cubs would have much less difficulty landing solid value for Contreras, who continued his run as a top-tier catcher last season. Not only is he a bargain relative to his production, but Contreras has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining.

The 27-year-old Davies is new to the Cubs, having joined them as part of their return from the Padres last month for righty Yu Darvish. Davies, who enjoyed a career year in 2020, will be eligible for free agency next offseason.

Padres Acquire Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini

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DEC. 29, 10:07pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Cubs will pay $3MM of Darvish’s remaining money, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and Heyman. Darvish has $62MM left on his contract – not the previously reported $59MM – because of the incentives he reached for finishing second in 2020 NL Cy Young voting, Bastian notes.

DEC. 28: The Cubs and Padres have agreed to a deal that will send right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini from Chicago to San Diego, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. The Cubs will receive righty Zach Davies, shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana, and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena in return. The trade is done pending medical records, and the sides could finalize it Tuesday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  Chicago will pick up “a minor portion” of Darvish’s remaining money, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds.

This deal does not come as a surprise, as the two sides had been in deep discussions about Darvish throughout the day. It’s the latest bold strike for the Padres, who are coming off their first playoff season since 2006 and clearly plan to vie for their first-ever World Series title next year. Even before landing Darvish, they made a huge addition to their rotation Sunday by agreeing to pick up left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays. They also agreed to sign Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, making for an epic 24-hour period of dealmaking for GM A.J. Preller.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are losing perhaps their best starter in Darvish – a 2020 National League Cy Young finalist – as well as a quality catcher in Caratini. Although the Cubs are just a couple months removed from their fifth playoff berth in six years, ownership entered the offseason unlikely to spend after a pandemic-shortened campaign. Indeed, the Cubs previously saved money by saying goodbye to Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora at the non-tender deadline, while pricey third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant has been the subject of trade speculation. It’s unclear whether the Padres will take on all of Darvish’s remaining contract, but if they do, that’ll be $59MM on their books over the next three years. Caratini’s much more affordable, as he will earn a projected $1.2MM to $1.6MM in 2021. Caratini isn’t on track for free agency until after 2023.

In heading to San Diego, Darvish will reunite with Preller, who was part of the Rangers’ front office when they signed Darvish out of Japan before the 2012 season. Darvish, now 34, has since enjoyed a terrific career divided among the Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs, and last season was likely his best yet. He ended up with 76 innings of 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP ball, posted 11.01 K/9 against 1.66 BB/9, and averaged a personal-high 95.5 mph on his fastball. He’ll now slot in near the top of a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery but will still feature Snell, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack as locks for rotation jobs (barring other aggressive moves). The Padres also boast multiple high-end pitching prospects, including MacKenzie Gore.

Caratini, 27, was Darvish’s personal catcher in Chicago, but he was a reserve behind No. 1 backstop Willson Contreras. Caratini debuted with the Cubs in 2017 and has since offered passable offense relative to his position, having batted .250/.327/.372 in 677 plate appearances. Caratini was also a well-regarded defender in Chicago, including when he ranked in Statcast’s 98th percentile in the pitch-framing department last season. He’ll join Austin Nola and Luis Campusano as catchers on the Padres’ 40-man roster.

For the Cubs, this deal represents their first blockbuster trade under new president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, their former GM who earned a promotion after Theo Epstein stepped down in November. Losing Darvish and Caratini may not go over well for their fan base, but the Cubs are banking on Davies helping replace Darvish in 2021 and the young talent they received emerging as cornerstones.

Davies was somewhat quietly a top-tier starter in 2020, his only year as a Padre, as he recorded 69 1/3 frames of 2.73 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 8.18 K/9 and 2.47 BB/9. He should look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021, though the 27-year-old Davies isn’t controllable beyond then. He’ll earn a projected $6.3MM to $10.6MM via arbitration next season.

The rest of the Cubs’ return doesn’t consist of any elite farmhands, but Kyle Glaser of Baseball America notes that BA was planning to rank Preciado (No. 15), Mena (17), Santana (18) and Caissie (20) among the Padres’ 20 best prospects in its upcoming Prospect Handbook.

Just 17 years old, BA rated Preciado 23rd in the Padres’ farm system midway through last season, writing that the 6-foot-4 switch hitter’s “frame provides hope he can grow into 20-plus home run power as he matures physically.”

Mena, 18, signed an expensive $2.2MM bonus with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic during the 2019-20 international signing period. BA lauded Mena’s speed, range and potential 15- to 20-home run power earlier this year.

The 20-year-old Santana put up impressive production in rookie ball from 2018-19, when he combined for a .306/.418/.425 line in 365 plate appearances. The Canadian-born Caissie, 18, was a second-round pick (No. 45) of the Padres last summer. BA wrote before the draft that Caissie possesses “exciting upside,” though there are “some significant swing-and-miss concerns” in his game.

All things considered, this looks like a trade between two NL playoff teams going in different directions. The Padres appear to be all in on playing for a championship in 2021. It’s hard to say the same for the Cubs, who seem to be a club in retooling mode.

Padres, Cubs Nearing Yu Darvish Trade

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8:32pm: Padres outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana are other names in discussion, Mayo reports.

8:20pm: Davies and “several prospects,” including 2020 second-round outfielder Owen Caissie, will be going to the Cubs, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Shortstop Reginald Preciado will also head to Chicago, per Acee, who adds that the trade features “two other prospects.” The Cubs won’t get any of the Padres’ top five prospects, according to Nightengale.

7:10pm: Caratini will be part of the trade once it occurs, but Campusano won’t, Nightengale tweets.

6:58pm: The clubs are close to a deal and appear as if they’ll finalize it tonight, per Nightengale.

4:32pm: The trade looks to be close, Heyman tweets. Caratini would “likely” join Darvish in San Diego, though the Cubs want “some MLB experience” as part of their return.

3:04pm: The two teams are nearing agreement “on the multiple pieces” of a Darvish trade, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Pads “have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs,” Acee writes.

2:50pm: Top catching prospect Luis Campusano is among the names that has been discussed, Nightengale reports. His inclusion in the deal would give the Cubs a replacement should they send a catcher to the Padres. Campusano would join Miguel Amaya as a potential long-term option at the position with Contreras up for free agency in two years (if he’s not traded in this or another deal first).

2:03pm: There’s “growing optimism” that the two sides will complete a deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, adding that an agreement could come together as soon as today.

12:28pm: The Padres are focused on more than Darvish alone, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). Both suggest that the talks between the Cubs and Padres could be expanded to include one of Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini.

The Padres’ catching corps has turned over considerably over the past year, with Francisco Mejia now with in Tampa Bay, Austin Hedges in Cleveland and Luis Torrens in Seattle. The Friars have Austin Nola atop their catching depth chart, with touted prospect Luis Campusano behind him, but the latter is still lacking in MLB experience. Either Chicago catcher would bolster the group, and Contreras would likely push Nola into a super-utility role similar to the one in which he thrived with the Mariners.

11:56am: Despite last night’s agreement to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, the Cubs are also “deep” in talks on a trade that would send Yu Darvish from Chicago to San Diego, according to Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports first indicated that the Padres were still in the mix for Darvish even after landing Snell. Importantly, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that San Diego is not on Darvish’s 12-team no-trade list, so the deal can be made without requiring Darvish’s approval.

If completed, the Darvish trade could be the next step in another dizzying flurry of headline-grabbing transactions from general manager A.J. Preller. In addition to Snell and the potential Darvish deal, the Padres are also reported to be the favorites to sign KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim. If all three moves come to fruition, this sequence would hearken back to Preller’s inaugural offseason, wherein Matt Kemp dubbed him the “Rock Star” GM — and back to this summer’s frenzied series of trade deadline acquisitions. Few front offices around the game act as boldly and decisively as the Padres when a course is set, and the Snell acquisition clearly looks to have set some dominos in motion.

It’s at least possible there’s a connection between today’s pair of Friars rumors; the Cubs surely want controllable young talent, and a player like Jake Cronenworth would certainly be of interest to them in a Darvish deal. That’s speculative on my part, to be clear, but it’s not hard to see how those pieces could fit into place. Alternatively, if the Padres were to send an outfielder with a notable salary back to Chicago to help offset Darvish’s contract (e.g. Tommy Pham, Wil Myers), Cronenworth could move into the outfield if needed.

Darvish, 34, is still owed $62MM over the next three seasons as part of the six-year, $126MM he initially signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season. The first year of that massive contract could scarcely have gone worse, as Darvish was limited to just 40 innings due to a series of injuries that culminated in arthroscopic elbow surgery.

At that point, few would’ve imagined Darvish resurfacing as both a front-line starter and a highly sought-after trade commodity, but that’s exactly what’s happened. Darvish finished second in National League Cy Young voting in 2020, thanks to a brilliant 2.01 ERA and 93-to-13 K/BB ratio through 76 innings. However, his renaissance extends further back than that.

Dating back to Memorial Day 2019, Darvish has made 32 starts and totaled 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. At less than $21MM a year, this version of Darvish looks like a relative bargain, though buying his age-34, age-35 and age-36 seasons obviously still carries risk. Darvish is also a favorite of Preller — a former Rangers assistant GM who played an integral part in scouting and signing Darvish during his time with Texas.

The very notion of a rotation featuring some combination of Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies and MacKenzie Gore is a dream scenario for Padres fans — the type of starting staff that would give the Friars a group to go toe-to-toe with the perennial division winners up in Los Angeles. Few teams in the game could boast such a deep and talented group of starting pitchers, and while Davies is a free agent next winter, the Padres will get Mike Clevinger back from Tommy John surgery for the 2022 season. A 2022 group of Snell, Darvish, Lamet, Clevinger, Paddack and Gore has the potential to be utterly overwhelming.

For the Cubs, trading away some combination of Darvish, Contreras and Caratini would be a painful first step in at least some degree of a rebuilding effort. While the Cubs probably won’t tear the roster down to the studs, there’s also some inevitable change on the horizon. Cornerstone pieces like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are all free agents next winter. Kyle Schwarber would’ve joined that group but has already been non-tendered. Contreras is only controlled through 2022.

Improbable as it would have seemed a few years back, Darvish now stands out as one of president Jed Hoyer’s most desirable trade targets to dangle for other teams, joining Contreras and Kyle Hendricks in that regard. Trading Darvish (and Contreras or Caratini) would give the Cubs an avenue to clear salary and acquire controllable talent for the team’s next core.

However this plays out, it seems likely that more moves will be on the horizon for the Padres and Cubs alike. The Cubs could either jump into free agency to add a Darvish replacement at a lower cost, or they could continue to shop veteran stars like Bryant and Hendricks. And for the Padres, Preller’s history suggests that more moves are likely to follow even if Darvish, Kim and one of Contreras/Caratini all land in San Diego. The Padres could still use some help in the bullpen, for instance, and they’ll likely send some MLB talent to Chicago in order to push the Darvish deal across the line. It’s going to be a busy week in San Diego.

This Day In Transaction History: Thanksgiving

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Thanksgiving isn’t usually a barnburner of a day as far as baseball transactions are concerned, but that’s pattern more than rule. Most years something official happens along the lines of Matt Skole signing with the White Sox in 2019 or Jason Lane signing with the Padres in 2014 – but  three years in particular gave us a heaping portion of baseball news befitting turkey day: 2005, 2007, 2009. While we wait to see what happens this year, let’s go back and look at some of the most impactful moves made on Thanksgiving day.

  • Last year was a quiet Thanksgiving day, but there was plenty to talk about. If you recall, we were just one day removed from the four-player Brewers/Padres swap that saw Trent Grisham and Zach Davies land in San Diego. MLBTR readers weighed in on Thanksgiving with more people preferring the Brewers’ side of the deal. The Brew Crew landed promising infielder Luis Urías and potential rotation arm Eric Lauer. A year removed, my guess is the public sentiment may have changed. This one might need more time to gestate, however, before a final determination can be made.
  • On this same date and day in history, the Cleveland Indians signed an amateur free agent that changed the fortunes of their franchise. Jose Ramirez – a 17-year-old amateur free agent out of Dominican Republic – signed on Thursday, November 26, 2009. He would debut in the Majors just four years later as a 20-year-old.
  • On the same day, the Toronto Blue Jays struck in free agency signing shortstop Álex González to a free agent contract. Of course, this isn’t the Alex Gonzalez most Blue Jays fans will remember best. This A-Gon spent just a few months north of the border. He was traded to the Braves on July 14th of the following season as part of a four-player deal that sent Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes to Toronto. Escobar would net 8.6 bWAR across 2 1/2 seasons with the Jays, while Reyes would be claimed off waivers by the Orioles later that season.
  • In 2007, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim invested heavily in a free agent centerfielder who had spent the entirety of his career to that point in the Twin Cities. Torii Hunter signed for $89.5MM over five years to roam the grass in Anaheim. He’d win two Gold Gloves and make two All-Star teams while racking up 20.7 bWAR as an Angel. They got their money’s worth as Hunter would post the best two seasons of his career by bWAR while with the Angels (2009, 2012).
  • The Cincinnati Reds signed Miguel Rojas as an amateur free agent on November 24, 2005. Rojas would stay in the Reds’ minor league system for a full six seasons before being granted free agency and joining the Dodgers in 2012.
  • That same season, the Marlins did some work with two significant trades on Thanksgiving. The first sent Carlos Delgado and cash to the Mets for Grant Psomas, Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit. Delgado spent just one season in Florida, but he did grab a 6th-place MVP finish that year for slashing .301/.399/.582 with 33 bombs.
  • Their other deal helped bring the second title of the century to the Red Sox. The Fish traded Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota to Boston for Jesus Delgado, Harvey Garcia, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez would have a number of solid years with the Fish, while Hanley Ramirez developed into a cornerstone shortstop and the face of the franchise.

Zach Davies Named Padres Game Two Starter

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Zach Davies will get the start in game two of the NLDS tonight, per the team. Presumably, this lines up Chris Paddack for a game 3 start.

A lot rides on Davies tonight, not only because a 2-0 deficit would put the Padres on the brink of elimination, but because the bullpen has been pushed hard so far this postseason. Mike Clevinger’s injury left the Padres to rely on their relievers beginning in the second inning of game two. This after using at least 9 pitchers per game in each of their postseason games this season. It’s an all hands on deck situation for San Diego.

To the Padres’ credit, they saw this coming, at least in part. They did roster 15 pitchers for the series, more than most teams, though with Clevinger’s injury they’re essentially playing a man down. Still, so long as they’re comfortable going all 15-deep, the Padres can survive the series this way. They could theoretically get through today’s game not using anybody who pitched yesterday, and then head into game three with 8 relievers having had a day of rest. A long outing from Davies would go a long way to resetting the rest of the bullpen. That’s easier said than done, though as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes, Davies has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career with a 2.37 ERA in 8 starts.

Of course, game four is when it will get really complicated for the Padres. They’ll be looking at bullpen games in game 4 and in game 5, unless Clevinger is able to make his way back. They could replace Clevinger on the roster, but they’d lose him for the NLCS then as well. If that were to happen, Luis Perdomo, Michel Baez, and MacKenzie Gore would be options to take the roster spot, per the Athletic’s Dennis Lin. Of the three, Gore is not on the 40-man roster, which is full.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Padres, Brewers Agree To Four-Player Trade

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2:00pm: The Brewers have formally announced the deal. They’ll also receive a player to be named later or cash from the Padres, per a team press release.

9:57am: The Padres and Brewers have broken open a quiet trade market with an interesting swap of young big leaguers. Outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies are heading to San Diego, with second baseman Luis Urias and southpaw Eric Lauer going to Milwaukee in exchange.

This is a rare need-for-need, value-for-value trade. For the Friars, Grisham could pair with Manuel Margot in center field and ultimately move to a corner spot when top prospect Taylor Trammell is ready. Both he and Urias have debuted but not yet accrued a full season of MLB service. Meanwhile, Davies will represent a sturdy rotation piece. He’s projected to earn $5.0MM in his second-to-last season of team control.

On the other side, the Brewers now appear to have a double-play partner for Keston Hiura. Indications are that the club will utilize Urias at shortstop. Whether there’s still room for Orlando Arcia remains to be seen. The 24-year-old Lauer could deliver solid innings for years to come. While he’s not as established as Davies, the southpaw has shown well early in his career and remains under control through the 2024 season.

For the most part, 2019 was a bit of a dream season for Grisham. The former first-rounder finally turned the corner at the plate, raking in the upper minors (.300/.407/.603) to earn his way up to the majors.

Grisham ended up seeing significant time in the big leagues for the postseason-qualifying Brewers. He wasn’t exactly an instant star, but turned in a palatable .231/.328/.410 slash in 183 plate appearances while contributing highly graded defense. Unfortunately, the season ended on a sour note, as Grisham committed a costly error that cemented the Brewers’ Wild Card meltdown.

It feels funny to treat Davies as a secondary piece in this deal; that’s certainly not the case. Still just 26 years of age, he spun 159 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball last year. True, Davies wasn’t exposed often to lineups for a third time. And there’s probably some good fortune embedded in those results. Davies will never be much of a strikeout pitcher, with a career K rate of 6.4 per nine. But he has proven over the years that he can produce good results despite his limitations, with a 3.91 ERA in 614 1/3 career innings.

In Urias, the Brewers see a compelling young hitter that just hasn’t quite found his footing in the majors. He’s just 22 years of age and carries a .305/.403/.511 slash over 887 Triple-A plate appearances. Urias has succeeded largely with his strong plate discipline (108 walks, 172 strikeouts) and excellent bat-to-ball skills. But there’s a bit of pop in the bat as well, as he has 28 long balls during his time at the highest level of the minors.

That said, there are some questions — there’s a reason that Urias has spent so much time at Triple-A while some other Padres players have breezed through and never returned. The initial MLB returns were tepid. Urias owns a .221/.318/.331 batting line in 302 plate appearances in the bigs. It seems reasonable to suppose he’ll improve upon that, but to what extent remains to be seen.

There are also some questions whether Urias can handle the shortstop position with sufficient aplomb at the game’s highest level. He spent the majority of his time in the minors at second base and has graded better there than at short in his limited MLB time at both spots. But the Brew Crew has been willing to rely upon its infield placement to help cover up any range issues.

It’d be easy to lose sight of Lauer here, but he’s a notable asset in his own right. The former first-rounder has thrown 261 2/3 MLB innings over the past two seasons, working to a cumulative 4.40 ERA. Nothing jumps off the page about him — 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 38.9% groundball rate, 1.20 HR/9 — but he could bring steady innings at a cheap rate. The Brewers will likely plan to utilize Lauer in a somewhat flexible role to maximize his utility, as they have other hurlers that might not quite warrant traditional starter usage.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link) broke the deal, with Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) adding key details.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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