Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller
WEDNESDAY: The teams have officially announced the deal.
TUESDAY: After more than a week of rampant speculation, the Shelby Miller blockbuster that many anticipated has arrived. The Braves on Tuesday reportedly agreed to send Miller and left-handed relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks in exchange for outfielder Ender Inciarte, right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Blair and shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the latter of whom was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft back in June.
Miller, 25, has been one of the hottest commodities on the trade market for the past seven to 10 days. The D-backs will control him for at least three seasons via the arbitration process — he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just under $5MM next season — and he’ll give Arizona another potent arm to pair with Patrick Corbin and newly signed ace Zack Greinke atop a dramatically improved rotation.
As many as 20 teams reportedly checked in on Miller, who will ultimately spend just one year in Atlanta after being the main piece received in last winter’s Jason Heyward blockbuster with the Cardinals. The former first-round pick and top 10 prospect enjoyed a strong season in 2015 with the Braves, compiling a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 205 2/3 innings. It should be noted, though, that Miller’s dominant overall numbers are propped up, to some extent, by an unsustainable 1.48 ERA through his first 10 starts. While Miller was still very solid after that stretch — he logged a 3.77 ERA with a 122-to-55 K/BB ratio across his final 138 1/3 frames — fielding-independent-pitching metrics peg him as more of a mid- to upper-3.00s ERA type of pitcher. Whether he looks more like the front-line arm he appeared to be in 2015 or the steady mid-rotation arm those metrics peg him to be, Miller unequivocally has value, but the Diamondbacks have indeed paid a steep price to acquire his services.
Inciarte (pictured below) is the Major League ready piece of the deal for Atlanta. He’ll bring five years of club control to the Braves and can immediately slot into center field there, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. Inciarte, 25, was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015. Inciarte is an elite defender at any of the three outfield spots; he’s amassed 52 Defensive Runs Saved in just 1972 innings at the Major League level or, if you prefer, +33.7 runs, per Ultimate Zone Rating. While he lacks much in the way of power and may see his surface-level rate stats decline by moving away from the hitters’ haven that is Phoenix’s Chase Field, Inciarte will help the Braves’ chances both in 2016 and into the next planned phase of the team’s status as contenders.
Swanson, 22 in February, is barely six months removed from being the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. A shortstop out of Vanderbilt, Swanson spent the summer playing with Arizona’s short-season Class-A affiliate in Hillsboro, where he batted .289/.394/.482 in 22 games/99 plate appearances. His inclusion significantly enhances the deal for Atlanta, who recently parted ways with shortstop Andrelton Simmons. While Swanson won’t be ready to jump to the Majors in 2016 — at least not early on — he gives the Braves a potential Simmons replacement at some point in the 2017 or 2018 season and joins 18-year-old (19 in January) Ozhaino Albies as an elite shortstop prospect rising through the ranks of the Atlanta farm system.
MLB.com rated Swanson as the No. 10 prospect in all of Major League Baseball at the end of the season, and Swanson unsurprisingly ranked as the organization’s top prospect according to both that outlet and Baseball America. BA’s scouting report noted that Swanson has no weaknesses in his toolkit, calling him a prototypical No. 2 hitter that has 15-homer pop with plus speed and a future as a solid, if not above-average defender at shortstop. MLB.com notes that most scouts think he can stick at shortstop, adding that he has off-the-charts makeup and could be in the Majors by 2018. As a bonus for the Braves, Swanson’s Georgia roots — he attended high school in Marietta — figure to make him popular with the Atlanta fanbase.
Blair, 23, is a little more than two years removed from being a first-rounder himself (albeit, a compensatory first-round pick). Arizona selected him 36th overall in 2003, and he currently ranks 61st on MLB.com’s Top 100. BA rated him as the D-backs’ No. 2 prospect, trailing only the aforementioned Swanson. The Marshall University product split the 2015 season between Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a combined 2.92 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. BA notes that he has a 91-95 mph heater with heavy sink that generates plenty of grounders in addition to a curveball that misses bats and a changeup that he uses to pitch to contact. MLB.com and BA both agree that Blair is nearly big league ready and should debut in 2016, with both calling him a potential mid-rotation starter.
In addition to Miller, the D-backs will receive the 20-year-old Speier, who spent this past season pitching at Class-A, where he recorded a 2.86 ERA with 7.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 44 innings of relief work. Speier, a 19th-round pick in 2013, is already plenty familiar with being traded. He was originally selected by Boston but traded to the Tigers a year ago (almost to the day) alongside Yoenis Cespedes in exchange for Rick Porcello. Detroit shipped him to Atlanta a couple of weeks ago in the Cameron Maybin trade, and he’s now on the move for the third time in less than three full years as a pro.
By making this trade, the Diamondbacks have exhibited their clear desire to win now. The presence of Greinke, Corbin and Miller atop their rotation gives Arizona arguably the best rotation in the National League West, but the price they’ve paid is sizable. Perhaps more notably, it continues to display that GM Dave Stewart, VP De Jon Watson and chief baseball office Tony La Russa value draft picks in a considerably different manner than a number of their baseball ops peers around the league. Arizona forfeited its 2016 first-round pick in order to sign Greinke and has now traded the 2015 top pick (Swanson) in addition to its 2014 first-rounder, Touki Toussaint, in a deal that many felt amounted to a salary dump to rid themselves of Bronson Arroyo‘s contract. With this recent string of moves, the D-backs have moved three of their past four highest draft picks and foregone the right to pick 13th in next year’s draft.
Of course, Arizona will now have an impressive rotation trio to support MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt and the underrated A.J. Pollock, who will now probably share the outfield with David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas with Inciarte in Atlanta. The D-backs are aggressively branding the 2016 as an “evolutionary” year, and the moves they’ve made bear out the fact that the coming seasons will carry significantly greater expectations than the team has had in quite some time.
For the Braves, the move further adds to the ever-growing stockpile of young talent that president of baseball operations John Hart and GM John Coppolella have accumulated over the past calendar year. While the loss of Miller undeniably hurts the club’s pitching staff, one could potentially make the argument that the addition of Inciarte to the 2016 roster offsets much of the value the team is losing by subtracting Miller’s highly talented arm from the roster. And, adding a pair of high-impact prospects, one of whom (Blair) could make an impact as soon as 2016, further accelerates the rebuilding effort to align with the club’s stated desire of contending in 2017 — the first season of the newly constructed SunTrust Park.
The huge stockpile of minor league talent and the shedding of sizable financial commitments — Miller could potentially earn $8-9MM in 2017 depending on his 2016 results — will position Atlanta to be aggressive on both the trade and free-agent front. The Braves, after all, have just $46MM committed to four players in 2017 and only three that will be eligible for arbitration (none of whom should command anything close to a prohibitive salary).
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that Miller was going to Arizona (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post added that Inciarte and others were going to Atlanta (also on Twitter). The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reported that Swanson and Blair were in the deal (Twitter link). Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reported that Speier would also go to Arizona.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees To Acquire Starlin Castro For Adam Warren, Brendan Ryan
The Yankees and Cubs have agreed to a trade that will send Starlin Castro to New York, pending medical reviews. The deal will also see right-hander Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan (listed as a player to be named later) heading to the Cubs.
Castro, 26 in March, is a three-time All-Star that struggled mightily for much of the 2015 campaign but had a strong finish to the season and an even better showing in the playoffs. Overall, Castro batted .265/.296/.375 last season, marking the second time in the past three seasons in which he’s delivered a well-below average output on offense. However, the 2014 campaign was excellent, as Castro batted .292/.339/.438 with 14 home runs. The Yankees will be counting on Castro to look more like his 2014 and the late-2015 versions of himself over the course of the next four seasons that remain on his contract.
A total of $38MM remains on the seven-year, $60MM contract extension Castro signed three years ago. With the Yankees, he will, presumably, step in as the everyday second baseman for the foreseeable future. His addition calls into question what the Yanks will do with incumbent second basemen Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder, who had previously been slated to platoon in 2016. While one could remain on the roster as a utility option, it’s tough to envision the club keeping both players and Castro on the active roster next year.
Warren, 28, will give the Cubs a right-hander that was one of the more valuable swingmen in the game last season. The former fourth-round pick appeared in 43 games for the Yankees, making 17 starts and 26 relief appearances en route to a career-high 131 1/3 innings. In that time, Warren posted a 3.29 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are more or less commensurate with the production he delivered from 2013-14 while working almost exclusively out of the bullpen (101 relief appearances, two starts) and can be a reasonable expectation for him going forward. (If anything, one could perhaps forecast slightly better results due to the move to the National League.) He can be controlled for another three years in arbitration.
Ryan, 34 in March, exercised his $1MM player option this offseason. Ryan has not been terribly productive since coming to New York, taking just 289 plate appearances and compiling a poor .201/.244/.271 batting line over his three years with the team. Still, he is valued most for his glove and he can contribute at second base and in other infield roles.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter) and ESPN’s Buster Olney (on Twitter) first reported that Castro was New York-bound. YES Network’s Jack Curry (Twitter link) reported that Adam Warren and a PTBNL were going to the Cubs. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that the PTBNL was Brendan Ryan. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs To Sign Ben Zobrist
Ben Zobrist‘s free agency has reached its long-awaited conclusion as the veteran elected to join an exciting, young Cubs roster. He’ll reportedly receive a four-year, $56MM contract that comes with full no-trade protection in the first three years and an eight-team no-trade list in year four.
The deal will reunite the utilityman with former Rays manager Joe Maddon, who now runs the dugout in Chicago. Zobrist, who is represented by Octagon, will take home a $2MM signing bonus, $10MM in 2016, $16MM in both 2017 and 2018, then $12MM in 2019.
The addition of Zobrist creates a number of logjams on the Chicago roster, as his best positions — corner outfield and second base — are currently occupied by a combination of Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez and Starlin Castro. Then again, the Cubs are said to be discussing a trade of Castro to the Yankees,* which would potentially free up second base and move Baez into a super-utility role (provided he isn’t traded himself).
Zobrist, 35 next May, is coming off a season in which he batted a combined .276/.359/.450 in 535 plate appearances between Oakland and Kansas City. The switch-hitter handled both right-handed pitchers and left-handed pitchers well and delivered arguably his best offensive season in the past three years despite splitting most of his time between the pitcher-friendly O.Co Coliseum and Kauffman Stadium.
Defensive metrics were down on Zobrist this season, though one has to wonder whether or not knee surgery that he underwent early in the year sapped his range and led to the uncharacteristically low ratings placed upon his glove by Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Zobrist has typically graded out as a well-above-average defender in the outfield corners and at second base, and he also comes with big league experience at shortstop, third base and first base. That defensive versatility is one of the reasons that he was such a hot commodity on this winter’s free-agent market, with upwards of a dozen clubs connected to him at various times.
Zobrist was long tied to the Mets, Giants, Braves and Nationals, but the Cubs re-emerged as an apparent suitor in media reports earlier this afternoon. Zobrist’s priorities were said to be a winning team and a team that is relatively close to his Nashville home, and the Cubs check both of those boxes.
*Editor’s Note: A trade sending Castro to New York was reported later in the same evening.
Tommy Stokke of FanRag Sports tweeted that Zobrist would sign with the Cubs. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted the contract terms. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reported details of the no-trade provision and annual breakdown.
Jose Fernandez Rumors: 12-8-2015
We’ve heard persistent rumors that the Marlins could still be willing to listen to trade offers for star righty Jose Fernandez, even if the asking price is incredibly steep. Though president of baseball operations Michael Hill said yesterday that Fernandez is “not available,” the rumors have carried over into the second day of the Winter Meetings.
Here’s the latest:
- The Dodgers have discussed trying to involve a third team in trade talks for Fernandez, according to Rosenthal (Twitter link).
Earlier Updates
- Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria says there’s “nothing I am thinking about doing at the moment” with Fernandez, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.
- Yankees sources tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) that the team never offered Severino and isn’t interested in doing so. The club has not held “substantive talks” on Fernandez, per the report.
- About a dozen clubs have inquired on Fernandez, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter links). The Dodgers appear to be the best match, he says, if they’d part with Seager, Urias, and more. Needless to say, that’s a big “if.” The Yankees were willing to give up their best young arm, Luis Severino, per the report, but Frisaro adds that it doesn’t seem New York has enough to give for Fernandez even if it included first baseman Greg Bird.
- The Giants have also had conversations with Miami about Fernandez, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Meanwhile, the Dodgers appear unwilling to involve Corey Seager in any deal but could consider including top pitching prospect Julio Urias in a package.
- Miami appears to be engaging in discussions on Fernandez more to gauge his future value than to structure a deal right now, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes.
- A rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link) that Miami still does not seem terribly willing to part with Fernandez. “They haven’t proposed anything reasonable enough to make people think they want to deal,” said the anonymous source.
- A source tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter) that the Astros aren’t the “mystery team” pursuing Fernandez.
- There’s a mystery team entering the picture on Fernandez with a “very strong” bid, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports. Sources with “other clubs” tell Stark that the Astros are believed to be the shadowy pursuer. Stark also adds that a deal increasingly seems plausible, with Miami possibly holding off on pursing a Marcell Ozuna deal while the team explores the addition of an outfielder through a trade of Fernandez.
- As Stark notes in the story, he previously reported that the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Yankees have at least contacted the Marlins regarding Fernandez, though Arizona is said to have dropped out of the picture.
Latest On Rangers And Prince Fielder
3:01pm: Texas is not “shopping” Fielder, GM Jon Daniels says, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Twitter links). And a source tells Wilson that the club hasn’t had “any conversations” regarding the veteran slugger.
12:25pm: The Rangers are “surveying” rival teams to gauge the market’s interest in “picking up [the] bulk” of the contract of first baseman Prince Fielder, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter. But Texas does not appear to be receiving much indication that there’s much likelihood of finding a match.
With the Tigers carrying $30MM of the remaining burden on Fielder, he’s owed an additional $90MM by the Rangers through 2020. That’s not a monumental obligation for a player of his ability, and there seem to be plenty of teams looking for bats, but it’s not clear what Texas would be looking for in structuring a deal.
Fielder, 31, had a bounceback season for the Rangers last year. He ended the campaign with a .305/.378/.463 slash and 24 home runs after dealing with back issues in 2014. But that’s still a far cry from the huge stats he put up earlier in his career, and Fielder fell off rather noticeably in the second half.
Latest On Angels’ Search For Outfielder
The Angels have engaged in “ongoing conversations” with the representatives of free agent outfielder Justin Upton, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, meanwhile, hears that there’s “nothing happening” at present between those sides. (Twitter links.)
Los Angeles has long been said to be pursuing a new left fielder, and Upton would represent one of the best options available for that role. Of course, there are many others, and Morosi adds on Twitter that the club is still considering the idea of signing Jason Heyward and moving Kole Calhoun to right field. That possibility has long been talked about as an option, though there’s still little indication that talks have progressed (if they’ve taken place at all).
Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke
TUESDAY: Arizona has announced the signing.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has a slew of details on the contract. (All links go to Twitter.) Greinke will receive a $18MM signing bonus and salaries of $31MM (2016-18), $31.5MM (2019), and $32MM (2020-21).
The overall valuation of the deal sits at $193,849,298, per Heyman, which accounts for the fact that $62.5MM of it is deferred. Greinke will also receive a $2MM trade bonus if he’s dealt once, though of course there is no-trade protection as well, and will donate one percent of his annual salary to the club’s charity.
SUNDAY: Greinke will receive a limited no-trade provision as part of his deal, Heyman tweets.
FRIDAY: In a shocker, the Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with free agent starter Zack Greinke, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The contract is for six years, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Greinke is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Greinke will receive an amazing $206.5MM over six years, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While that will include some deferred money (via Rosenthal), the total comes just short of David Price‘s $217MM deal with the Red Sox, which was the largest ever for a pitcher. (Rosenthal tweets that $60MM or more is deferred, and the present-day value of Greinke’s deal is around $190MM. Heyman tweets that the deferred money that will be paid within five years after the deal expires.) And Greinke’s contract is for only six years, compared to Price’s seven (although Price’s contains an opt-out, and Greinke’s does not, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets). Greinke’s $34.42MM AAV will be baseball’s largest ever, blowing away both Price and Miguel Cabrera, who got $31MM.
Rosenthal had reported earlier Friday evening that the Diamondbacks were pursuing Greinke, and the Diamondbacks had previously been connected to a number of high-profile arms, including Johnny Cueto, Kenta Maeda and others. Still, the fact that they’re set to sign an ultra-high-end star like Greinke comes as a surprise, particularly since the top two bidders seemed to be two of Arizona’s division rivals, the Dodgers and Giants.
Still, Greinke to the Diamondbacks makes a fair amount of sense, and not just because of the team’s new ten-figure TV deal. The $206.5MM total for Greinke is three times larger than the Snakes’ biggest-ever free agent contract (last year’s $68.5MM deal for Yasmany Tomas), but Greinke, in addition to being an elite talent, should fit well with what they already have built.
As FanGraphs’ August Fagerstrom pointed out earlier this week, Arizona already qualified as a sleeper team for next season. The Diamondbacks already had a solid offense headed by two top talents in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and an excellent defense headed by Pollock, Nick Ahmed and Ender Inciarte. The chief reason they only won 79 games last season was their pitching staff, which rated 27th in MLB in fWAR. Their rotation already looked likely to improve somewhat next season with a full season of Patrick Corbin, but adding Greinke provides a much bigger shot in the arm. With Greinke in the fold, the Diamondbacks obviously have a much better chance of contending — and not only because of the direct impact Greinke will have on their roster, but also because they’ll be keeping Greinke from pitching for one of their rivals.
Greinke would, clearly, be an impact addition for any team. While he isn’t likely to repeat his 1.66 ERA next season, even with an outstanding defense behind him, he’s an elite pitcher by any standard — he pitched 222 2/3 innings in 2015 and struck out 200 batters, reaching that threshold for the fifth time in his career. His 1.6 BB/9 was good for fifth in the Majors, and he also did a terrific job limiting home runs. Via FanGraphs linear weights, his changeup ranked as the best in baseball, and both his fastball and slider were among the ten best. He also hit a relatively robust .224/.232/.343 and won his second consecutive Gold Glove award.
The Diamondbacks’ surprising deal with Greinke leaves its neighbors to the west on the outside looking in. The Dodgers were uncomfortable giving Greinke a sixth year, the Los Angeles Times’ Bill Shaikin tweets. They offered him about $31MM per year over five years, Heyman reports (again via Twitter), but they were uncomfortable guaranteeing a sixth year to a pitcher who’s already 32. With Greinke off the board, the Dodgers are expected to bid for Cueto, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, the Giants could turn to other starting pitchers, perhaps Jeff Samardzija.
Greinke’s decision to opt out of his contract with the Dodgers unsurprisingly turned out to be a very lucrative one. He effectively declined three years and $71MM more from Los Angeles, and now will receive three times as much over only twice as many seasons. Also, as the Bay Area News Group’s Andrew Baggarly tweets, Greinke will be taxed at a significantly lower rate in Arizona than in California.
Once the deal is complete, the Diamondbacks will forfeit the 13th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Greinke rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer. The Dodgers will receive a pick at the end of the first round.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Aroldis Chapman Allegedly Involved In Domestic Dispute
TODAY: There’s another potential wrinkle, per Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links): Chapman needs 138 days of service next year to reach the six seasons required for free agency. It’s at least hypothetically plausible that he could fall shy if he faced a lengthy suspension.
Rosenthal also details the league’s plans for the investigation, which will include an interview with Chapman, and the difficult questions that the commissioner’s office will face in assessing the matter.
Meanwhile, the prospective trade of Chapman to the Dodgers is not on hold due to any investigatory action by the league, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). Los Angeles is “undecided” on how to handle the possible transaction, he adds.
YESTERDAY, 11:42pm: A team that had contact with Cincinnati was left with the impression that Chapman “might have injured a hand” in the incident in question, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Obviously, it’s hard to judge the level of concern with that information without knowing which hand and what might have occurred, but the news adds to an already-stunning turn of events.
10:32pm: The Red Sox were in talks on Chapman in November before learning about the incident through a background check, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. Boston was exploring deals for both Chapman and Craig Kimbrel at the time, says Speier, and turned its attention exclusively toward the latter after finding out about the allegations.
10:10pm: C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer has Jocketty’s full quote, on Twitter: “We’ve talked to several clubs. I notified all of them tonight that we’d step back a couple of weeks or whatever it takes.”
9:28pm: Reds president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty says that a trade of Chapman may be delayed by several weeks, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets. That’s certainly far from the most important element of this story, of course. But a delay in completing a transaction also seems to represent only the minimum potential impact on Chapman’s marketability.
For one thing, any club would obviously want to know if a player being acquired will face disciplinary action. Notably, we’ve yet to hear anything on the situation of Reyes, whose arrest was reported about a month ago, suggesting that the process won’t be swift.
Quite apart from any suspension or fine, moreover, the disturbing report could well come with broader ramifications for Chapman’s future if the alleged facts are supported by the investigation. And that’s probably true whether or not he is ultimately charged in relation to the incident.
8:54pm: Reds closer Aroldis Chapman was allegedly involved in a serious domestic dispute in late October, Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown and Jeff Passan report. The outlet says that it obtained police records relating to the matter.
According to those reports, says Yahoo, Chapman’s girlfriend told investigating officers that he “choked” her and pushed her against a wall. Chapman is also alleged to have discharged a handgun into the garage of his home.
There were no arrests in the incident. Chapmans attorney, Jay Reisinger, said in a statement to Yahoo that he and his client “vehemently deny the allegations as stated.”
The incident is the reason that a reported trade this morning to the Dodgers has been held up, according to Yahoo. Cincinnati has been aware of the matter “for some time,” Passan adds in an interview on MLB Network Radio (Twitter link). Major league baseball will investigate the matter, Brown and Passan further report.
An investigation obviously appears to be warranted under the new domestic violence protocol put in place between the league and the player’s association. Commissioner Rob Manfred can issue any punishment deemed appropriate “in light of the severity of the conduct,” after an investigation. Notably, neither criminal conviction nor a guilty plea are required to support the imposition of discipline.
The commissioner’s office is said already to be investigating fellow high-profile players Jose Reyes and Yasiel Puig under the domestic violence policy.
Tigers, Mark Lowe Agree To Two-Year Deal
TODAY: Lowe’s guarantee actually comes in at $11MM in total, Rosenthal tweets.
YESTERDAY, 12:36pm: Lowe’s contract will guarantee him a hefty $13MM — $6.5MM per year — over the life of the contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). That’s quite a raise for a player who inked a minor league pact last offseason.
8:35am: The Tigers are in agreement with right-hander Mark Lowe on a two-year contract to join the team as a setup man, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter). Last night, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com was the first to break that the Tigers were discussing and, in fact, nearing the completion of a two-year deal with the Frye McCann Sports client.
Lowe, 32, revived his career in 2015 with an outstanding season. While he was much stronger in Seattle, prior to being traded to the Blue Jays, the veteran reliever was solid all throughout the year. Lowe pitched to an even 1.00 ERA with a dazzling 47-to-11 K/BB ratio in 36 innings with Seattle, prompting the Blue Jays to acquire in him late July. He logged a 3.79 ERA with the AL East champs, striking out 14 against just one walk in 19 innings of regular season work. All told, Lowe posted an excellent 1.96 ERA with 10.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate in the regular season before yielding a pair of earned runs in 4 2/3 postseason frames.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted last night when Crasnick first reported news of the near-agreement, Lowe’s success was largely attributable to a revitalized fastball which averaged 95.5 mph — his highest mark since 2011. The increased life on his fastball improved the results of Lowe’s slider, as Eno Sarris explained at Fangraphs, leading to markedly better results across the board.
The Tigers will hope that Lowe’s restored velocity — and thus his overall resurgence — is sustainable. He should step into the Detroit bullpen as one of the top (if not the top) setup option for recently acquired closer Francisco Rodriguez, perhaps alongside hard-throwing Bruce Rondon and Alex Wilson, who enjoyed a breakout in 2015. Lowe will, ideally, serve as an upgrade over the talented but control-challenged Al Alburquerque, who was non-tendered by the Tigers last week. If Lowe, Rondon, Wilson and Rodriguez all pitch to their capabilities, the Tigers will have an impressive group of right-handed arms to rely upon late in games. Further bullpen additions, though, shouldn’t be ruled out. In particular, a left-handed relief option would seem to be a prudent add; Blaine Hardy, Kyle Ryan and Kyle Lobstein presently represent the most experienced left-handed relief options at the back of manager Brad Ausmus‘ bullpen.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Japan’s Hiroshima Carp To Post Kenta Maeda
DECEMBER 10: Maeda’s posting process will actually begin tomorrow, December 10, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
DECEMBER 8: Maeda will formally be posted today, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets.
DECEMBER 3: The Hiroshima Carp will post ace right-hander Kenta Maeda for Major League clubs to bid on this winter, according to a report from Yahoo Japan (Japanese link, h/t: Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times, on Twitter). Maeda had asked his club to post him a little more than a week ago.
Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweets that he believes the Carp will set the release fee for Maeda at the maximum $20MM, meaning interested teams will have to pay that amount in order to secure the right to bid for Maeda’s services.
If the release fee is indeed set at $20MM — and that does seem likely, given Maeda’s profile — every team in baseball will have the opportunity to bid that amount. Maeda and his agents will then be free to negotiate with each club that met the release fee, ultimately taking whatever offer is most to the pitcher’s liking. Teams that bid but fail to sign Maeda will have their fee returned, whereas the $20MM bid from the team that ultimately signs Maeda will go to the Carp as compensation for the loss.
Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market.
A recent scouting report from Badler (a subscription is required but highly recommended to read many of Badler’s scouting reports on international players), gave a refresher on much of what is already known of Maeda but also revealed that in the recent Premier 12 international tournament, Maeda displayed a vastly improved changeup that looked to be a plus pitch. Badler notes that Maeda’s fastball sits 89-93 and can hit 94 at times, with an above-average slider as his typically favored secondary offering.
As Badler notes, most scouts feel that Maeda is at least a No. 4 starter in the Majors, though the potential is obviously there for him to exceed that label. Recall that many were reluctant to label Masahiro Tanaka an ace in the making when he was posted (although, as Badler points out, Tanaka’s raw stuff is simply more overpowering than Maeda’s arsenal). Nevertheless, the addition of a plus changeup to Maeda’s arsenal would further entice clubs seeking high-end pitching, and if a team believes a fourth starter to be the floor for the right-hander, one can imagine a hefty price tag being placed upon him. Said one scout to Badler: “I didn’t think his slider was very good that day (against Mexico), but his changeup was nasty. He was throwing it to righthanders and lefthanders. To me, that was his best pitch.”
Maeda figures to attract interest from a wide number of clubs — both teams that are aiming to contend in 2016 and possibly some rebuilding/retooling clubs that are eyeing 2017 and beyond. Because he’ll pitch next season at 28, Maeda is younger than most free agent starters and therefore doesn’t necessarily carry the risk that he’ll be in decline by the time a rebuilding or transitional club flips the page to contention.
One team that is known to have strong interest in Maeda is the Diamondbacks. General manager Dave Stewart wasn’t shy whatsoever when asked about the player last winter, candidly stating: “I love Maeda. I love him. We have a lot of video and film and we have people who have seen him. We think that he’s got a chance to be very successful in Major League Baseball. We’re going to try to be in on the market when he does post, if he does post.” Maeda, of course, was not posted last season, but Stewart recently said that the D-backs have maintained their interest. That they’re said to be in search of pitching help that does not require draft pick forfeiture only strengthens the likelihood that they’ll make a push for Maeda, although, as I noted before, many teams will be in the mix. Given the fact that there’s little risk in actually posting the $20MM release fee (which, again, is refunded if a team doesn’t sign Maeda), it’d make sense for half the league (or more) to at least meet the fee just to see the asking price.
We at MLBTR ranked Maeda 14th in terms of earning power on our Top 50 free agent list and estimated a five-year, $60MM contract on top of a $20MM posting fee. While the comfort level of interested teams of course remains to be seen, it should be noted that the bulk of pitchers available on this year’s open market doesn’t seem to have hampered earning power for pitchers thus far in the offseason — even those among the second and third tiers of arms. For instance, Johnny Cueto has reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM offer already, while Jeff Samardzija is said to have offers in the $90-100MM range. And, J.A. Happ has already landed an impressive three-year, $36MM contract. Given that expenditure and the rumored price tags on other arms, it appears (on the surface, at least) that Maeda is well-positioned to secure a substantial contract as he looks to jump to Major League Baseball.
It should also be wondered if, in addition to a sizable guarantee, he’ll be in line for an opt-out clause. Tanaka received such a clause when signing his contract with the Yankees, as did outfielder Yasmany Tomas in signing his six-year contract with the Diamondbacks. An opt-out after two or three years would allow Maeda the opportunity to establish himself in the Majors and re-enter the market with a big league track record, although an opt-out would probably come with a trade-off in terms of total guarantee (Tanaka’s enormous contract notwithstanding).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.