Nori Aoki Seeking Three-Year Deal
Free agent outfielder Nori Aoki is looking for a three-year deal, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link). He’s currently drawing interest from both the Reds and the Royals, although Kansas City at the moment is said to be more interested in Torii Hunter, Heyman adds.
Aoki batted .285/.349/.360 in his lone season with the Royals and played a key role from a defensive standpoint as the team made its way to the World Series. However, he’s seen a precipitous drop in his power since coming to the Majors. After hitting 10 homers as a rookie with the Brewers in 2012, he hit eight in 2013 and just one in 2014. His isolated power dropped from .144 in 2012 to .084 in 2013 and .075 in 2014, although a portion of the most recent dip could at least be attributed to moving to the spacious Kauffman Stadium.
The Reds are in need of a left fielder and are said to also be targeting Mike Morse, while Kansas City has been linked to a reunion with Aoki on more than one occasion. However, there wouldn’t be room for both Hunter and Aoki in K.C., so it seems that for the time being, Aoki is on the back burner as GM Dayton Moore looks to add some punch to his lineup in the form of the veteran Hunter.
MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently profiled the 32-year-old Aoki and suggested that he could land something in the range of two-year, $16MM contract.
Braves Shopping Evan Gattis
The Braves are pushing Evan Gattis hard in the early-goings at the GM Meetings, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Sherman notes that American League clubs are a better fit as they’d allow Gattis the chance to DH more often and take the field sparingly.
Gattis has been considered a trade candidate for the past few months, with the Braves desiring to clear a path for the defensively gifted Christian Bethancourt behind the dish. Gattis could be seen as an alternative to signing a player like Victor Martinez or Nelson Cruz — defensively limited bats in their own right that would cost tens of millions of dollars on a four-year deal.
Any team acquiring Gattis would be acquiring four years of his service, which should net a rather significant return for the Braves. The 28-year-old Gattis hit .263/.317/.498 with 22 homers in just 401 plate appearances this season. He missed some time with a bulging disc in his back — another reason that some additional DH time might work in his favor.
Mariners Strongly Interested In Hanley, V-Mart
The market for some of the top hitters figures to begin taking shape today as the GM Meetings kick off in Phoenix, and the Mariners are already being connected to arguably the top two bats on the market. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted last night that the M’s have interest in Hanley Ramirez, although one source gave him the impression that Seattle’s priority is Victor Martinez. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets that the Mariners are “aggressively pursuing” Ramirez and have expressed to his camp how badly the team wishes to sign him.
Ramirez could fill the Mariners’ hole at shortstop, and while his defense there is no longer a plus (it is, in fact, considered to be a significant negative), his bat would be an unequivocal upgrade over the combined .239/.295/.344 batting line posted by Seattle shortstops last season. There’s also the possibility that the Mariners could have a mind to put Ramirez in a corner outfield spot after he told teams last week that he’s willing to play anywhere on the diamond, though that seems unlikely, as Ramirez hasn’t played a game in the outfield in the Majors or Minors.
If there Mariners do indeed sign Ramirez, one has to wonder what it means for the future of shortstop Brad Miller. After opening the season as Seattle’s shortstop, Miller, 24, found himself unable to repeat the offensive success he showed in 2013. He struggled to a .221/.288/.365 batting line but played at least passable, if not above average defense at shortstop and is a sound baserunner. It’s possible that he could fill a utility role based on that ability at short, though other teams would likely have interest in acquiring Miller, who just recently turned 25. The Mariners also have Chris Taylor, 24, in their ranks, and Taylor was fairly impressive late in the season. He batted .287/.347/.346 in 151 plate appearances, although that line was bloated by a .398 average on balls in play. Taylor also whiffed in nearly 26 percent of his plate appearances and showed minimal power (eight doubles, no homers) after also showing limited pop throughout his minor league career.
The Mariners were one of the possible destinations listed for Ramirez in Zach Links’ Free Agent Profile of him last week. Zach ultimately predicted a six-year, $132MM contract for Ramirez. While a contract in that range is of course a steep price to pay, it pales in comparison to the 10-year, $240MM contract the M’s doled out to Robinson Cano last offseason. The Mariners also have a rising payroll thanks to a new television deal and their success in 2014, and the only two long-term pacts they have on the books are Cano and Felix Hernandez (though that duo is significant). Rosenthal does note that some sources with whom he’s spoken doubt that the Mariners would want to take on another $100MM+ contract.
Many have speculated that the Mariners will show strong interest in the soon-to-be 36-year-old Martinez, who is said to be seeking a four-year deal. Seattle designated hitters batted just .206/.276/.335 last season, so Martinez would represent a similarly large offensive upgrade for the team. Unlike Ramirez, adding Martinez wouldn’t unseat any young players such as Miller and Taylor, and the price tag, while still steep, could be half as much as that of Ramirez over a span of two fewer years. Of course, there’s also more concern for offensive decline with Martinez, who is entering his age-36 season, while Ramirez is entering his age-31 campaign.
Both Ramirez and Martinez received qualifying offers from their former clubs, but both are considered locks to reject the QO in search of a large multi-year deal. That means the Mariners would have to forfeit the No. 21 overall pick in order to sign either player. Should they sign both — which seems unlikely, though not impossible — the team would forfeit its first- and second-round selections. I listed both Ramirez and Martinez as possible fits for the M’s in their Offseason Outlook last month.
Pirates Make Qualifying Offers To Martin, Liriano
NOVEMBER 9: Martin will decline the qualifying offer prior to Monday’s deadline, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The move comes as no surprise given the strong market developing for his services. As we learned yesterday, the Pirates, Cubs, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are the early front runners.
NOVEMBER 3: The Pirates have extended one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offers to both Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano, the team announced.
Both moves have been expected to varying degrees. Martin was seen as the likelier candidate, but Liriano is coming off a pair of strong, albeit injury-shortened seasons, and figures to seek a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.
Martin batted .290/.402/.430 for the Pirates this season and has come to be regarded as one of the game’s most elite defensive backstops based on his ability to control the running game and his exceptional pitch-framing skill. Liriano, meanwhile, pitched to a 3.38 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 168 innings this season and turned in a combined 3.20 ERA in 323 1/3 innings with the Pirates over the past two seasons.
Both Liriano and Martin will now have one week to decide whether or not to accept the offers. In Martin’s case, with his rumored price tag soaring north of $50MM over the past couple of months, conventional wisdom says that he’ll turn the offer down. Some may find Liriano a better bet to accept the offer, and while that’s true, doing so would expose him to the risk of an injury or a down season. It seems more likely to me that he’ll decline the QO in search of a multi-year deal, looking to the case of Ervin Santana last year as a worst-case scenario. Santana declined the $14.1MM qualifying offer from Kansas City and still signed a one-year, $14.1MM contract with the Braves months later. (Santana also received a QO of his own earlier today.) By declining the offer, Liriano is at most risking a few million dollars, as even with a draft pick attached, he could likely find $12MM+ on a one-year deal, if not the entire value of the QO as Santana did last season. However, accepting would be risking the upside of $15-20MM more than the QO on the open market.
MLBTR readers can keep track of all players who receive a qualifying offer by using our Free Agent Tracker.
Yankees Re-Sign Chris Young
SUNDAY: The Yankees have officially announced the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets Young can earn $6.325MM if he achieves all of his incentives.
SATURDAY: Pending a physical, the Yankees have agreed to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with free agent outfielder Chris Young, tweets Sweeny Murti of WFAN. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish was the first to report the contract length, while Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter) was the first with the value. The contract also contains incentives which are unknown at this time. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (also Twitter), the offer was originally extended by the Yankees nearly a month ago. Per Nightengale, he could earn nearly $5MM if he’s a regular in the lineup.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote yesterday, Young struggled with the Mets to the tune of .205/.283/.346 over 287 plate appearances. After latching on with the Yankees, Young improved his production with a .282/.354/.521 in only 79 plate appearances. Beyond noting the small sample performance, Young’s time in the Bronx carries several warning signs related to his batted ball profile and swinging strike rate. It would be hasty to suggest he made lasting improvements with the Yankees.
It is presumed Young will serve in a backup capacity behind Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran. That trio has quite the injury history, so it is possible he’ll see frequent action. The 31-year-old’s last successful season was in 2012 when he posted a .231/.311/.434 line with 10 UZR. Since then, he’s posted 0.4 WAR in two consecutive seasons, marking him as slightly better than replacement level.
Pending further moves, the right-handed Young can probably expect to see time against tough lefty pitchers since both Ellsbury and Gardner bat left-handed. Beltran could also spend considerable time as the designated hitter, especially if Alex Rodriguez is unable to contribute.
Pablo Sandoval To Meet With Four Teams This Week
SUNDAY: Sandoval’s camp will also meet with the Giants, Blue Jays and White Sox, Cotillo reports.
SATURDAY: The Red Sox will meet with Pablo Sandoval and agent Gustavo Vasquez at the GM meetings in Arizona next week, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish was the first to report the scheduled meeting. The Red Sox reportedly headed into the offseason with Sandoval and Chase Headley as their top priorities. Sandoval rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants last week, and is instead reportedly seeking a nine-figure deal, possibly for six years. Cafardo notes that, along with the Red Sox and Giants, the Blue Jays and White Sox currently seem to be the most interested in Sandoval.
Boston would want to use Sandoval as its third baseman, Cafardo reports, although he notes that, unlike the Giants and other NL teams, the Red Sox could also eventually use Sandoval at DH if his physique prevented him from staying at third. The switch-hitting Sandoval’s ability to hit from the left side would also be a benefit for Boston. With Sandoval in the Majors, the Red Sox could send Will Middlebrooks, who can still be optioned, to Triple-A Pawtucket.
Joey Gallo Changes Agents
Top Rangers prospect Joey Gallo has left the Legacy Agency for Wasserman Media Group, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes tweets. Wasserman currently represents big-name clients like Yasiel Puig, Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley and Javier Baez. Still, Gallo’s move is a big one for his new agency — MLB.com currently ranks the third baseman the No. 6 prospect in baseball.
Gallo has raced through the minors since being drafted in the first round in 2012, hitting 40 homers between Class A+ Myrtle Beach and Double-A Frisco as a 20-year-old in 2014, with an overall line of .271/.394/.615. He does have weaknesses — those 40 home runs came with 179 strikeouts, suggesting that it might be difficult for him to harness his power in the Majors. Still, his raw power is hard to top.
Free Agent Profile: Nori Aoki
Nori Aoki‘s one season with the Royals was the franchise’s best in recent history, and he was one of eight players who formed a suffocating defense that was crucial to the team’s run to the playoffs. Now, though, the CAA client is a free agent, and it’s unclear what the market might hold for a 32-year-old corner outfielder with minimal power.
Pros/Strengths
Aoki’s approach at the plate has resulted in excellent and consistent batting averages and OBPs. He’s batted .288, .286 and .285 in his three seasons in the big leagues, with OBPs of .355, .356 and .349. The 2014 AL league average OBP was .316, so Aoki was way ahead of the pack in that regard, and that was no accident — Aoki walks about as often as he strikes out, with 141 career strikeouts and 144 career walks. He hits both righties and lefties well (he batted .363/.428/.435 against lefties this season, which is noteworthy even though it’s unsustainable) and does not need to be platooned.
Like most Royals, Aoki is above average defensively for his position — he posted a 5.9 UZR in 2014 and is 8.2 runs above average in his three-year big league career. His speed hasn’t translated to great value on the bases, but it’s served him well defensively. Aoki has also been very durable, with a three-week stint on the disabled list with a groin strain in 2014 as the only significant absence since he arrived in the US.
Aoki has been at least a two-win player in two of his three seasons in the league, and if he can maintain his high on-base percentage, his secondary skills are good enough to hit that threshold. He also did not receive a qualifying offer, so the team that signs him won’t have to give up a draft pick.
Weaknesses/Cons
In 2012, his first season in the US, Aoki hit ten home runs and 51 overall extra-base hits, good power numbers for a table-setter. In the last two years, however, that power has vanished — Aoki had eight homers and 31 extra-base hits in 2013, and just one homer and 29 extra-base hits in 2014.
Aoki’s fly ball percentage has decreased from 27.7% in 2012 to 17.1% in 2014, and the average distance of those fly balls has decreased from about 280 feet in 2012 to 249 feet in 2014, ahead of only Donovan Solano, Elvis Andrus and Emilio Bonifacio on Baseball Heat Maps’ Flyball Leaderboard. Meanwhile, Aoki this year hit ground balls at a 61.9% rate this season, the second highest percentage among qualified hitters throughout MLB, behind Ben Revere and just ahead of an ancient Derek Jeter. In other words, unless there’s something about Aoki that hasn’t been revealed to us, his loss of power doesn’t appear to be a fluke.
A corner outfielder doesn’t need great power to be productive, but Aoki would lose value quickly if any of his other skills were to slip. His lack of power also limits his upside. Aoki’s Isolated Power last year was .075. Of the 13 qualified batters last season with Isolated Power numbers of below .090, only two — Revere and Dee Gordon — produced above average offensive value overall, according to Fangraphs.
Personal
Aoki, of course, starred for eight years with the Yakult Swallows in Japan before arriving in the United States. He was born in Hyuga, a small coastal city in Southern Japan, and his parents still reside there. Aoki and his wife, Sachi, have two young children.
Aoki’s interpreter, Kosuke Inaji, has worked with him in both Milwaukee and Kansas City and is “very much an extension of him,” Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star writes. “He’s like our fifth outfielder,” Carlos Gomez said of Inaji when he and Aoki were with the Brewers.
Aoki wins plenty of praise as a teammate. “He had a great personality,” says former manager Ron Roenicke. “He fit in really well with the guys. We had fun with him. But he worked as hard as you could work. You can’t put more effort into the job than he did.”
Market
There aren’t many good position players available this offseason, but there are a fair number of outfielders, including Melky Cabrera, Yasmany Tomas, Colby Rasmus, Nick Markakis, Alex Rios and Torii Hunter. It’s possible Cabrera, in particular, might have to sign before the rest of the market develops. The Royals appear likely to have interest in retaining Aoki, and he could also fit in with the Reds, Twins, Mets, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers, Giants or Tigers. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe noted this week that the White Sox could be a possibility as well.
Aoki still profiles as a starter, but it’s unclear what his next team might be getting. His on-base ability is valuable, but the disappearance of his power is worrisome.
Expected Contract
A legitimate on-base threat is hard to find, and at his age (33 in January), Aoki could remain productive for at least two more years. He also has experience at all three outfield positions and could probably slide into a fourth outfielder role if his offense slips.
For all his drawbacks, Aoki was obviously a bargain throughout his previous contract, which paid him just $4.95MM total for the 2012 through 2014 seasons. This time around, he should be able to find a two-year contract at a significantly higher annual salary. He might end up being able to land a two-year, $16MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Russell Martin To Meet With Four Teams
It is early in the free agent process, but the Cubs have already met with top backstop Russell Martin, Bruce Levine reports for CBS Chicago. Martin is also expected to visit and undertake preliminary discussions with the Pirates, Dodgers, and Blue Jays, according to Levine. It is far from clear, of course, that Martin’s market will ultimately be limited to that group. After all, he figures to draw broad interest around the game.
Incumbent Cubs catcher Welington Castillo struggled with his offense and framing last year, and the big-market Cubs have money to spend, so it’s unsurprising they would have interest in Martin. In Los Angeles, catcher A.J. Ellis hit just .191/.323/.254 last season, and the Dodgers’ new saber-friendly front office will likely place a high value on Martin, particularly given his work behind the plate. The Jays have had internal discussions about pursuing Martin and making current starting catcher Dioner Navarro their primary DH.
Yankees, Chris Young Have Mutual Interest
Free agent outfielder Chris Young is in discussions with the Yankees about a deal that would keep him in New York, according to a report from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Young joined the Yankees on a minor league deal in the middle of 2014, after he was released by the crosstown Mets.
Young had a rough go of things in Queens last year, slashing .205/.283/.346 over 287 plate appearances after signing a one-year, $7.25MM pact in free agency. That represented similar production to his run with the Athletics the year prior, when Young’s downturn began.
But he turned things around in a late-season run with the Yankees, putting up a .282/.354/.521 line in a short sample of 79 plate appearances. And the 31-year-old does have a history of pretty impressive work — twenty home run power, twenty steal speed, and solid defense in center — in the not-so-distant past.
For the Yankees, Young would surely fit in a reserve capacity. The club has committed big money to Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran, though the latter may need to see an increasing amount of time in the DH slot.