What’s Next For Oakland?
What’s Billy Beane’s next move? He’s already traded his team’s best pitcher and one of his better hitters. Let’s start with a couple of additional moves brought up by Susan Slusser.
Trade Eric Chavez. Chavez expects to go, and he was refreshingly candid in his comments. His contract runs through 2010, and he’s willing to waive his no-trade rights. He’s had three surgeries this winter, so he has to prove his health before anyone acquires him. A big first half would go a long way.
Sign Barry Bonds. Such a move wouldn’t surprise Chavez. Slusser believes a bargain Bonds chasing 3,000 hits and extending his home run record could be a way to get fans in the park despite a noncompetitive 2008 team. For $8-10MM, I could see it.
Other possibilities outside of the two mentioned by Slusser:
Trade Mark Kotsay. He makes $8MM in ’08 and only managed 56 games last year. Maybe the Braves would take him on in exchange for a nonprospect, if the A’s kick in $3MM.
Trade Mark Ellis. He’s signed at $5MM for ’08, plays Gold Glove second base defense, and is an above average hitter for his position. Too bad for the White Sox he didn’t get thrown in as part of the Swisher trade. Outside of the Rockies I don’t see many fits for Ellis.
Trade Rich Harden. Since he has a reasonable $7MM option for 2009, Harden is similar to Chavez and Kotsay in that it makes sense to wait to see if he can build a little value before trading him.
Trade Joe Blanton. I’d be surprised if this doesn’t happen, with Beane adding three or four more of some team’s top ten prospects.
Trade Huston Street. Why not? He’s got three years of service time left, so he should draw a better bounty than Jose Valverde did. Perhaps Beane can focus on acquiring a good young middle infielder here.
Vets like Bobby Crosby, Alan Embree, and Justin Duchscherer probably shouldn’t get too comfortable either.
Nick Swisher Traded To White Sox
Baseball Digest Daily is reporting that the A’s have traded Nick Swisher to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney. I’d heard about the Sweeney part but hadn’t been able to confirm it. This is a fascinating trade – let’s discuss.
I have to imagine the White Sox plan to use Swisher as their center fielder for the next couple of years; he did play 59 games there in ’07. Kenny Williams stuck to his word about adding OBP to his team, picking up Swisher and Carlos Quentin to fill out his outfield. Swisher, 27, is signed at a very reasonable price: $3.5MM in ’08, $5.3MM in ’09, $6.75MM in ’10, $9MM in ’11, and a $10.25MM club option for ’12 with a $1MM buyout. The option gets a $1.75MM bump if Swisher is top five for the MVP voting during the contract. He has limited no-trade protection for 2011-12.
The White Sox paid a massive price to get their man, however. Pitchers De Los Santos and Gonzalez were their two best prospects, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein. De Los Santos is said to have a huge ceiling, whereas Gio is a solid lefty who’s nearly big-league ready. Goldstein ranked Sweeney eighth on the team, but projects him as more of a fourth-outfielder type (he was once very highly regarded though).
If it wasn’t obvious with the Dan Haren trade, the A’s are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. Joe Blanton, Huston Street, and Mark Ellis could be next to go.
Gammons Chat: Crisp, Santana, Ramirez
The Boston Globe ran a chat with Peter Gammons today, and some good hot stove material came about.
- Gammons believes the Rangers or A’s could go after Coco Crisp if he’s not dealt to the Twins. He notes that "the A’s think he’s the best CF in the game right now," and that Billy Beane could acquire him to flip him.
- He says the Mets are currently trying to build up inventory to trade for Johan Santana, and that might be why Bill Smith hasn’t pulled the trigger on anything yet.
- Gammons believes the Red Sox will exercise Manny Ramirez‘s $20MM options for the 2009 and 2010 seasons. He notes that Manny is getting himself into phenomenal shape this winter.
Mets Pitching Plans
Many readers have written me asking what the Mets are going to do to upgrade their starting rotation. Matthew Cerrone as a man in the know, and he’s written a summary over at MetsBlog.
- Cerrone senses nothing much cooking on the Johan Santana front, yet the Mets remain "oddly confident."
- Cerrone believes the Mets will probably sign one rehabber – Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon. He says reviews on Colon in the Dominican Winter League have been positive. Omar Minaya knows Colon well, having traded the farm for him as GM of the Expos. Garcia may be ready to pitch around June. Coming off a frayed rotator cuff and labrum he may not contribute much in 2008.
- Bullpen wise, Cerrone says Octavio Dotel is on the radar, especially if Aaron Heilman is traded.
- There’s a lack of buzz with the Mets for Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez, and Joe Blanton currently.
White Sox Sign Alexei Ramirez
UPDATE, 12-22-07 at 6:00pm: Ramirez can earn another $3.25MM in incentives.
UPDATE, 12-21-07 at 10:57pm: Ramirez gets a mere $4.75MM over the four-year pact. That’s an excellent move right there, in my opinion. Dirt cheap – low risk, decent reward.
FROM 12-21-07 at 5:35pm:
The White Sox made an interesting move today, signing Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez to a four-year contract. The presence of Jose Contreras should be helpful for him. Ramirez probably profiles as Chicago’s center fielder, though he could also play second base. Here’s what Baseball America had to say about him a few months ago.
It’s tough to judge this signing until we hear the money involved. He was apparently highly sought after, as ESPN says he worked out for the Red Sox, Indians, Reds, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Twins, and A’s too. Ramirez is apparently 26 years old. I think he’s going to need some time in the minors, as Clay Davenport has equated Cuban baseball with our short season A ball.
As a means of comparison, Yuniesky Betancourt signed for four years and $2.826MM in January of 2005. Kendry Morales signed a four-year deal worth around $10MM in December of 2004.
Olney On Blanton/Mets
Buster Olney heard that the Mets could acquire starter Joe Blanton from the A’s if they’d agree to surrender Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and Kevin Mulvey. I wonder if Oakland would try Heilman in the rotation.
The A’s would probably go with an outfield nucleus of Travis Buck in left, Gomez in center, and Carlos Gonzalez in right. That could make Nick Swisher – signed for five years through 2012 – expendable.
Mets fans: would you do it?
Reds Still Searching For A Starter
John Fay writes of the Reds’ continued search for a starting pitcher. That’s Wayne Krivsky’s focus; his main limitation is that Jay Bruce is untouchable.
The Reds couldn’t get Dan Haren because they wouldn’t give up young starter Johnny Cueto. The focus remains on Erik Bedard; the Reds seem willing to offer Homer Bailey as a starting point. Fay indicates that the Dodgers lead for Bedard, which is odd given their current six-deep rotation.
I have a feeling the hot stove is going to turn to Joe Blanton now. The Reds may be in the thick of it, especially if they’d give up Bailey for him. What do you think, would that be a wise move?
Mariners Targeting Blanton?
So far this winter, we haven’t heard much about the Mariners getting involved for Joe Blanton. However, Buster Olney says today that "it appears they are in the thick of the trade bidding" for the 27 year-old righty. Blanton has a career ERA of 4.10 with a below-average K/9 of 5.24 and better-than-average BB/9 of 2.37.
Olney believes Adam Jones would be required for Seattle to acquire Blanton. Along with Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki, and Travis Buck could be the makings of a solid, cheap offensive core for Oakland. Olney believes the Mets and Reds could be other clubs eyeing Blanton.
The Mariners are still scrambling for two starters after missing out on Hiroki Kuroda. According to Larry Stone, they’re still after Erik Bedard. Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse might also become targets if the bigger names fall through.
Dan Haren Trade Analysis
The first domino fell tonight as an ace starter, Dan Haren, was dealt to the Diamondbacks for a bevy of prospects. I believe the D’Backs won this one. Let’s dig into the details.
Take Haren, a horse of an American League pitcher, and throw him in the easier league. The D’Backs got themselves a bona fide ace to pair with Brandon Webb, and they get him for three years at a reasonable price. He makes a mere $16.25MM over 2008-10; he’s worth at least three times that amount. (Arizona also gets 26 year-old reliever Connor Robertson, who hasn’t really conquered Triple A yet.)
To balance out the immense value of Haren, the A’s get six young players. Four of them represent the #1, 3, 7, and 8th ranked prospects on Baseball America’s top ten for the team.
Carlos Gonzalez, 22, is the stud of the group. He can play right or center and has definite star potential. However, he’s no lock to become Carlos Beltran or Jeff Francoeur.
Southpaw starter Brett Anderson turns 20 in February. He’s more about polish and command than stuff, and is a curious guy to be the main pitching prospect in the Haren deal. He’ll try to tackle Double A in 2008.
We’ve discussed 21 year-old first baseman Chris Carter recently; the D’Backs just acquired him for Carlos Quentin. Who knew it was setting up a Haren deal. He’s a slow guy with massive power and plenty of strikeouts. He’ll give High A ball a try in ’08.
Outfielder Aaron Cunningham turns 22 in April. He’s one of those guys who doesn’t do anything poorly but isn’t great at any one skill either. Baseball America thinks he’ll become a solid fourth outfielder.
24 year-old southpaw Dana Eveland came to Arizona along with Doug Davis. He’s drawn David Wells comparisons and has proven himself in the high minors. He missed a lot of ’07 with a torn tendon in his pitching hand.
Greg Smith is a 24 year-old southpaw starter with a good curveball and mediocre fastball. His strikeout rate was just 5.85 per nine at Triple A in ’07.
I’m surprised Billy Beane didn’t get more "sure thing" young players for his best trading chip. Gonzalez will probably pan out, but he really needed a high octane near-MLB young gun starter too and he didn’t get it. I will give him credit for spreading out his risk over six prospects, though. Josh Byrnes gets an ace without giving up anyone he needed in ’08.
Dan Haren Traded To Diamondbacks
It looks like Billy Beane has pulled the trigger on a trade for Dan Haren, sending him to the Diamondbacks for a package of prospects. The departed: Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham. The A’s also sent right Connor Robertson to the D’Backs.
The D’Backs also completed another deal, sending closer Jose Valverde to the Astros for Chris Burke, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez.
Tim will be around later to share his views on the trade.
–Joe