Blue Jays’ GM Ross Atkins Talks Deadline Approach
Even after last night’s 9-2 drubbing of the Yankees, the Blue Jays sit six games below .500. They’re at the bottom of the AL East with a 37-43 record and have three teams between them and the Royals — the current holder of the American League’s final playoff spot.
It’s certainly not where the Jays expected to find themselves at the season’s halfway point. Toronto had won between 89 and 92 games in each of the past three seasons and has gotten to the postseason in three of the last four years. They should be squarely in their competitive window.
That sets the Jays up as one of the more interesting pivot teams over the next month. They’re not eager to sell, but they’re running low on time to play their way back into the playoff mix. Toronto is 6.5 back in the Wild Card race. Any hope they had of winning the division coming into this year has long since disappeared.
GM Ross Atkins acknowledged the team’s precarious position when he spoke with the Toronto beat before Thursday’s win. “We’ve obviously put ourselves into a tough spot over the last seven days,” Atkins said (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “Ten days ago, we were feeling like there was positive momentum, and that has gone away.”
Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote earlier this week that the Jays weren’t yet willing to make key players available in trade. Atkins suggested similarly in his comments on Thursday, saying the front office’s “focus is on the 2024 team.” While the GM acknowledged that any decision also involves consideration of the future, he pointed to the organization’s investment in both payroll and prospect capital in this roster. “We’ll continue to do that until it doesn’t make sense to do so any more,” he added.
That naturally raises the question of when the front office could decide they have no choice but to turn their focus toward the future. That’ll largely depend on how things play out in the next four to five weeks — both in Toronto and around the rest of the American League. “The coming days are exceptionally important to us, and understanding the market is also exceptionally important to us in either way,” Atkins said (via Matheson). “We’re focused on winning. We’re focused on building the best possible team we can this year and supporting them the best we can. If we get to a point where we need to adjust, we’ll be prepared to do so.”
Toronto isn’t unique in that regard. There are only five or six (depending on one feels about the Tigers) teams who look like clear-cut sellers at this point. Yet there aren’t many more who can feel secure about their chances of getting to the postseason. Upwards of half the teams in the league could decide their deadline direction based on how they perform in July. Various clubs could also try to straddle the line by offloading some veterans while looking for immediate help in other areas of the roster.
The Jays have a more established roster than most of those fringe teams. Toronto has potentially impactful trade candidates with varying levels of club control. Neither Danny Jansen nor Yusei Kikuchi has played well in recent weeks, yet they’d both started the season quite well. Jansen is the top impending free agent catcher, while Kikuchi would be one of the more talented rental starting pitchers on the market if the Jays made him available.
Yimi García is pitching well and would be a straightforward target for teams seeking veteran bullpen help if he’s healthy by the deadline. (He went on the injured list with elbow neuritis two weeks ago.) Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier are having disappointing seasons. While the Jays would probably have to kick in cash to facilitate trades of either player, they could get calls based on their pre-2024 track records.
Things would become more interesting if the Jays seriously considered moving key players who are under control beyond this season. That would signify a bigger reset than merely trading rentals. There’s an argument for doing so if the Jays can’t claw back into contention over the next few weeks. Toronto has a handful of players who are in or at the back end of their primes. They’ve got dwindling control windows on franchise faces Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, each of whom are slated for free agency after the 2025 campaign. Bichette will make $16.5MM next season, while Guerrero is going to be due a noteworthy raise on this year’s $19.9MM salary.
Atkins bluntly shot down the notion of trading either star hitter earlier this month. That presumably won’t stop teams from calling to gauge whether the Jays are willing to reconsider. Bichette himself told Hazel Mae (X link) that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays moved him, though that’d presumably change if the team plays its way back into contention.
Guerrero is amidst arguably the second-best offensive season of his career. He’s hitting .289/.370/.447 across 351 plate appearances. While he hasn’t hit for the same level of power he did in 2021-22, Guerrero has the second-highest average and on-base mark of his career. Bichette hasn’t performed to his usual standard, running a personal-worst .232/.282/.333 slash line over 287 trips. While that’d arguably make this summer an inopportune time to move him, Bichette would surely still draw ample attention if the Jays put him on the market. There aren’t many everyday shortstops who seem likely to be available.
Beyond that duo, the Jays have a handful of controllable players who could generate calls, particularly on the pitching side. Jordan Romano has spent the past month on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He’s a two-time All-Star closer who is under arbitration control through next season, though. Romano recently resumed throwing from 120 feet on flat ground (via the MLB.com injury tracker). Chris Bassitt is making $22MM this season and next. He turned in a 3.60 ERA over 33 starts a year ago and has worked to a 3.45 mark with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 91 1/3 innings. Trading Kevin Gausman, who is under contract through 2026, still seems unlikely unless the front office kicks off a more significant reboot.
If the Jays perform the way they’re hoping over the next month, adding to the bullpen and deepening the lineup would be the likely priorities. The Romano and García injuries — paired with Erik Swanson’s struggles — have contributed to the Jays running out one of the least consistent relief groups in the majors. The bottom half of the lineup hasn’t performed up to expectations either. That’s largely due to underperformance from the likes of Bichette, Turner, Kiermaier and George Springer. The Jays also entered the season with questions at second and third base. They’ve plugged rookie Spencer Horwitz into regular action at the keystone while free agent signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who has somewhat quietly impressed with a .283/.333/.402 showing) has gotten the bulk of the third base reps.
Tigers, Drew Maggi Agree To Minor League Deal
The Tigers are signing infielder Drew Maggi to a minor league contract, as announced by the Staten Island FerryHawks of the Atlantic League (X link). The 35-year-old has appeared in 29 games with Staten Island this year.
Maggi garnered some attention in baseball circles last spring. A veteran of 13 minor league seasons, he earned a long-awaited big league debut with the Pirates last April. Maggi had previously spent some time in the big leagues as a member of the Twins but wasn’t called into game action. He appeared in three contests for Pittsburgh, collecting two hits in six at-bats. The Bucs outrighted him in May and released him in July.
The righty-swinging Maggi wasn’t hitting well for Pittsburgh’s Double-A team at the time of his release. That required him to head to independent ball. Maggi hit .235/.301/.343 across 113 plate appearances in the Atlantic League. He’s a .254/.355/.378 hitter over parts of six Triple-A campaigns and owns a .252/.338/.316 mark in seven years at the Double-A level.
Athletics Outright Aaron Brooks
June 27: Brooks was outrighted again, per the transaction log at MLB.com. He has the right to elect free agency, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he reports back to Las Vegas and awaits another opportunity with the A’s.
June 25: The Athletics announced that they have recalled left-hander Jack O’Loughlin, with right-hander Aaron Brooks designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.
Brooks, 34, signed a minor league deal with the A’s in the offseason and has twice been selected to their roster. The second such selection just occurred on Sunday and Brooks went on to perform some mop-up duty for the club last night. Luis Medina started the game but was removed after recording just nine outs. Brooks then came in and covered five frames, tossing 65 pitches and letting the rest of the bullpen have a night off.
That effective yeoman’s work was likely an ironic contributor to him losing his roster spot, as he surely wasn’t going to be available for a few days. Since he’s out of options, the club had to remove him from the 40-man roster in order to get a fresh arm into the bullpen.
The A’s will now have a week to trade Brooks or pass him through waivers. The last time he lost his roster spot, earlier this month, he cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Las Vegas. It’s possible that the same scenario plays out again in the days to come. He has an earned run average of 5.06 over his five appearances in the majors this year, as well as a 4.30 ERA in ten appearances for the Aviators.
Guardians Place Will Brennan On Injured List
The Guardians placed outfielder Will Brennan on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 25, with rib cage inflammation. Infielder José Tena is up from Triple-A Columbus to take his spot on the active roster. Cleveland also optioned Xzavion Curry and recalled Darren McCaughan.
Brennan has been Cleveland’s primary right fielder, starting 43 of their 78 contests. He’s having a solid season, hitting .256/.314/.415 across 226 plate appearances. Brennan has already established a personal high with eight home runs while keeping his strikeout rate to a tidy 11.9% clip. The Guards have shielded him from lefty pitching, giving him all but 29 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.
It’s not clear how long Brennan will be out of action, but he’ll at least miss the next week-plus. The Guardians kick off an important divisional series in Kansas City tonight. Daniel Schneemann handles right field alongside Tyler Freeman and Steven Kwan. Schneemann will probably pick up the majority of the right field work with Brennan on the shelf, at least against righty pitching. The 27-year-old rookie is hitting .280/.379/.520 through his first 58 big league plate appearances.
Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Francisco Alvarez, Hoerner, Crochet, And More
This week's mailbag gets into a potential Francisco Alvarez extension, trading Nico Hoerner, valuing Garrett Crochet, potential outfield additions for the Braves, and much more. Let's get into it!
Ben asks:
What would be a fair contract extension for the Mets and Francisco Alvarez? He is so talented and a great leader for such a young kid, have to imagine he will get expensive in arbitration.
I wrote an answer to this and then ran it by Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald. They threw cold water on some outlandish contract ideas I had for the Mets' young catcher.
Comparable contracts are lacking for Alvarez. I don't think comps need to be catcher-specific, especially because there are so few good ones. The Buster Posey and Joe Mauer deals are too old. Will Smith signed with four years of service and the Dodgers got his age 29-37 seasons, with a luxury tax dodge as a core feature.
One that comes to mind in the 2+ class, where Alvarez will be after the season, is Andres Gimenez. He signed a seven year, $106.5MM extension. Some of the other MLBTR writers see this as something of a ceiling for Alvarez, and I assume the Mets would feel similarly. At present, I'll take the over on that.
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Marlins Release Christian Bethancourt
6:50pm: Miami is releasing Bethancourt, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. He’ll head back to free agency and could look for a minor league opportunity elsewhere.
4:50pm: Marlins catcher Christian Bethancourt went unclaimed on waivers following his recent DFA and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. As a player with more than three years of big league service, he has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency. However, Bethancourt is at 4.129 years of service, placing him 43 days shy of the five full years he’d need to elect free agency and retain the remainder of this season’s $2.05MM salary. Since he’d have to forfeit the remainder of that salary in order to elect free agency, he’ll surely accept it and report to Jacksonville.
First-year Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was the Rays’ general manager when Tampa Bay acquired Bethancourt from the A’s, and in one of his first moves after being hired as Miami’s president of baseball ops, he brought Bethancourt to the Marlins in a cash swap with the Guardians, who’d previously claimed the catcher off waivers from the Rays.
The trade didn’t go as hoped, clearly. Bethancourt opened the season mired in a disastrous slump as the Fish received staggeringly poor production from their catching corps early on. By the time he was designated for assignment in favor of journeyman Ali Sanchez, he’d only managed to pull his batting line up to .159/.198/.268 in 88 plate appearances.
At one point, Bethancourt ranked among the game’s top catching prospects, but he’s fallen into journeyman status and at one point entirely moved on from catching in favor of outfield/infield work and even (more briefly) relief pitching. He spent the 2019 season in the KBO, didn’t play during the 2020 season, and bounced around the league in a more traditional catcher/first baseman role since 2021. That includes a 2022 season split between Oakland and Tampa Bay where he slashed a respectable .252/.283/.409 with a career-high 11 homers, but Bethancourt has been unable to replicate even that modest production since that time.
A career .292/.329/.468 hitter in parts of seven Triple-A seasons, Bethancourt will stick with the Marlins organization and provide some additional depth behind Nick Fortes and Sanchez. If either is injured and/or if Bethancourt gets his bat going in Jacksonville, he could get a look later this season. If not, he’ll be eligible for minor league free agency at season’s end, as is the case for all players with three-plus years of service who are outrighted off a 40-man roster, accept the assignment, and are not added back to the 40-man before the end of the year.
Oliver Ortega Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
The Astros announced that right-hander Oliver Ortega underwent surgery yesterday to remove a bone spur in his throwing elbow. He will miss the entire 2024 season. Lorenzo Delgado of Our Esquina was among those to relay the news on X.
Ortega, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Twins in October. In March, he underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, with the club providing a three-to-four-month recovery timeline at that point. Ortega started the season on the 15-day injured list and was transferred to the 60-day IL shortly thereafter. With this new surgery, it will go down as a completely lost season for the righty.
That’s obviously an unfortunate development for Ortega, as he was coming off an encouraging season. With the Twins in 2023, he tossed 14 2/3 innings at the major league level with a 4.30 earned run average. In 34 2/3 frames at the Triple-A level, he had a 1.82 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate.
He went on the IL in August last year due to a left lumbar strain and stayed there for the end of the season. The IL goes away during the offseason, so the Twins tried to run Ortega through waivers but the Astros swooped in with a claim, undoubtedly intrigued by those strong Triple-A numbers last year. Instead, the righty’s injury woes have continued and he will have spent over a year without appearing in a major or minor league game by the time this season is over.
If there’s any consolation for Ortega, it’s that he’s collecting a full year of big league pay and service time in 2024, which is not nothing for a guy who’s been up-and-down for most of his career to this point. He came into this year with one year and 19 days of service, meaning he’ll be at 2.019 at the end of the year. He will need to be reinstated from the IL in the offseason. If he hangs onto his 40-man spot into the 2025 season, he still has one option year remaining.
Reds Activate Noelvi Marté
The Reds announced today that infielder Noelvi Marté has been activated from the suspended list, having now served his 80-game PED suspension. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Liván Soto and transferred right-hander Emilio Pagán to the 60-day injured list.
Marté, 22, had an excellent debut for the Reds last year. Long considered one of the top prospects in the league, he was called up in August of last year and hit .316/.366/.456 in his first 35 games at the major league level. That set him up to be a key part of the 2024 club but he was hit with an 80-game suspension in early March after testing positive for Boldenone.
That has been just one of several notable absences for the Reds this year. Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have all missed significant time due to injury, with several pitchers having spent time on the IL as well. Those health problems and Marté’s suspension have left the club fairly hamstrung so far on the season.
Those issues have contributed to a fairly lackluster performance from the club, as the Reds are currently 37-43. That leaves them only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot in the fairly weak National League Wild Card race, but many expected better results this year after the club seemed to be overflowing with young talent towards the end of last year.
The return of Marté could perhaps give them a boost, though for what it’s worth, he hasn’t been in good form after his layoff. He began a rehab assignment a couple of weeks ago and hit .151/.151/.170 in 15 Triple-A games. That’s a small sample size and perhaps some rust is expected after missing time, but the Reds will obviously hope for better than that going forward.
The Reds still have McLain, Friedl and Encarnacion-Strand on the injured list while Jake Fraley and Jeimer Candelario are each dealing with minor ailments. Despite Marté’s poor form during his rehab, he might get some runway to get in a good place with so many other players ailing. He was primarily playing third base during his rehab, which has been Candelario’s home for much of this season. Santiago Espinal has been covering that spot lately but is hitting just .203/.253/.297 on the year. Even when Candelario is healthy again, he is capable of moving over to first base, while regular first baseman Spencer Steer could perhaps move into the corner outfield mix.
As for Pagán, he landed on the 15-day injured list June 9 due to a right lat strain. This transfer suggests the Reds don’t expect him back until early August in a best-case scenario. He signed a two-year, $16MM deal in the offseason, with the chance to opt out after one year. He has a mediocre 4.43 earned run average on the year and seemingly won’t have a ton of time to improve that number after this IL stint. The Reds could look to improve their bullpen prior to the trade deadline, but their aggressiveness in that department will depend on how the club plays over the next month.
Spencer Turnbull To Miss Six To Eight Weeks Due To Lat Strain
The Phillies announced that right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right lat strain. Right-hander Yunior Marté was recalled to take his spot on the active roster. Manager Rob Thomson says Turnbull will miss six to eight weeks, per Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer on X.
Turnbull, 31, started yesterday’s game but departed after just three innings due to right shoulder soreness. He told reporters after the game that he didn’t think the issue was too serious and that he hoped to make his next start, with Matt Gelb of The Athletic among those to relay his thoughts on the matter. Despite Turnbull’s optimism, it seems the club has determined the issue is serious enough for him to be on the shelf for a fairly sizeable stretch of time.
For much of the year, Turnbull has been pitching very well out of the bullpen but has been blocked from securing a lengthy stay in the rotation. The Phils have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez all putting up good numbers this year. The results have been more wobbly from Taijuan Walker but he is an established veteran on a four-year contract, which gave him precedence over Turnbull.
Just a few days ago, Walker landed on the IL due to inflammation in his right index finger, which opened a rotation spot for Turnbull. Unfortunately, in quick succession, Walker’s replacement is now out of action with Turnbull landing on the IL himself.
It’s a shame because, as mentioned, Turnbull’s results have been good overall this year. Over 17 games, including seven starts, he has a 2.65 earned run average. He wasn’t going to maintain a .233 batting average on balls in play or an 84% strand rate forever, but he struck out 26.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 9% clip and got grounders on 47.5% of balls in play.
The righty had a tough season in 2023, dealing with injuries and posting a 7.26 ERA. He was non-tendered by the Tigers and signed a modest one-year deal with the Phils with a $2MM base salary. Continuing to put up good numbers would have helped him in his return to the open market this coming offseason but this injury will put a dent in that or at least put his bounceback season on pause.
For the Phillies, their crowded rotation has been quickly un-crowded with Walker and Turnbull landing on the IL within days of each other. That will leave them looking for a fifth starter at least until Walker comes back. He has a murky timeline as it depends how his finger progresses in the coming weeks.
Perhaps that rotation spot will go to Michael Mercado, who was starting in the minors up until recently. He was recalled when Walker landed on the IL and has made one relief appearance thus far, but could perhaps return to starting. In 47 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 1.71 ERA, though less impressive peripherals. He has a 22.8% strikeout rate, 11.9% walk rate and 41.3% ground ball rate. A .240 BABIP, 83% strand rate and 3.9 home run to fly ball ratio have helped keep the runs off the board.
The other depth options aren’t particularly exciting. Kolby Allard, Freddy Tarnok and Max Castillo are on the 40-man but each has an ERA of 6.14 or higher for the IronPigs this year. Prospect Mick Abel has a 7.08 ERA in Triple-A this year.
If the Phils want to add some rotation depth, there’s still a month to go until the trade deadline. They can monitor the progress of Walker and Turnbull between now and then as they assess the market, but they have lots of wiggle room. They have a 53-27 record that is the best in the majors, putting them eight games ahead of Atlanta in the National League East.
Guardians, Matthew Boyd Agree To Major League Deal
The Guardians and left-hander Matthew Boyd have agreed to a deal, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X. It’s a major league deal for the Boras Corporation client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on X. The Guardians will need to open a roster spot whenever the deal, which is pending a physical, becomes official.
Boyd, 33, has had some good results in his career but he has been on and off the mound in recent years due to various health issues. He required flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and missed most of the following season, making ten relief appearances for the Mariners in September of 2022. He made 15 starts with the Tigers last year before requiring Tommy John surgery at the end of June.
Due to those injuries and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Boyd has been limited to 223 1/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season. His results have been fairly inconsistent in that time, which is probably not surprising given the many interruptions. His earned run average is an even 5.00 in that period, with strikeout and walk rates around league average.
Prior to this recent health odyssey, he was a solid contributor at the back end of the Detroit rotation for many years. From 2016 to 2019, he logged 588 frames over 109 appearances. In that stretch, he had a 4.67 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. His best performance was arguably back in 2019, when he struck out 30.2% of batters faced and gave out walks at just a 6.3% clip over 32 starts. His 4.56 ERA that year doesn’t look especially strong, but he allowed 39 home runs during what is now known as the “juiced ball” season, so his 3.61 SIERA might be more reflective of how he performed that year.
It’s now been almost exactly a year since Boyd underwent his Tommy John procedure. He is healthy enough to get on the mound, as he threw for clubs earlier this month, but he’ll presumably need some time to fully ramp up. Though he’s signing a major league deal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he agreed to be optioned to some minor league affiliate for a few weeks, effectively a delayed Spring Training.
The Guardians have been surprising in many ways this year. The rotation has often been a strength for the club but has been a clear weakness this year. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery earlier in the season and is done for the year. Gavin Williams has been on the IL all year so far. Tanner Bibee has been good but the rest of the group has been flimsy behind him. Each of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco have an ERA above 4.65. Ben Lively‘s ERA is down at 3.03 but with a modest 21.4% strikeout rate and fortunate strand rate of 87.3%.
Despite those rotation struggles, the club is 51-27, the best record in the American League. They will probably be on the lookout for rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline but there will be plenty of competition. There are few clear sellers at the moment thanks to some wide-open Wild Card spots and the few clubs that are clearly out of it have been getting hit hard by injuries. The Angels just lost Patrick Sandoval to season-ending surgery while the Marlins have each of Sandy Alcántara, Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Eury Pérez all on the IL. Getting a pitcher from the White Sox would likely be a challenge since they share a division with the Guardians.
Given those question marks, it’s sensible for them to take a dice roll on Boyd. Financial details of the agreement haven’t yet been reported but it’s likely a fairly modest guarantee after he’s missed so much time lately. The Guardians will have roughly a month to get a look at him and see if he can help bolster their current group. They also have Williams currently on a rehab assignment, potentially giving them two rotation reinforcements in the coming weeks. How they decide to attack the deadline a month from now will likely be determined by developments in the coming weeks.