Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers
The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.
The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.
That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.
New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.
If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.
As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.
He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.
For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.
Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.
Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.
Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.
As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.
If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.
Tommy Edman Underwent Arthroscopic Wrist Surgery In October
Cardinals utility player Tommy Edman underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist in October, the club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells John Denton of MLB.com. The Cards are hoping that Edman will be ready for Spring Training.
Edman, 29 in May, spent some time on the injured list last year due to inflammation in that wrist, missing almost a month from early July until early August. Per Denton’s report, the issue continued to bother him even after he returned from the IL.
Perhaps that explains why Edman’s production at the plate fell off relative to the previous season. He hit .265/.324/.400 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 106 but that line dipped a bit to .248/.307/.399 last year, with the wRC+ dropping to 92.
Edman is going to be a key contributor for the club in 2024, though his exact role is to be determined. He currently projects to be the club’s center fielder, with prospect Masyn Winn set to take over as the everyday shortstop. However, Winn hit just .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances and isn’t a lock to hold down the job all year long. That could perhaps lead to Edman moving to shortstop and someone like Dylan Carlson or Lars Nootbaar taking over in center.
In addition to those two positions, Edman has played second base, third base and the outfield corners, generally getting excellent grades for his glovework regardless of where he’s lined up. That will give the club plenty of opportunity to slot him into the lineup, even as the season rolls along and circumstances change due to injuries, prospect promotions or transactions. The club will therefore be hoping that his rehab proceeds as planned and he doesn’t experience any setbacks between now and the start of the season.
2024 Trade Deadline To Be On July 30
This summer’s trade deadline will be on July 30 at 5pm Central, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. That’s a slight change from 2023, when it was on August 1.
Traditionally, the trade deadline had always been on July 31. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the commissioner can choose a date between July 28 and August 3 for the deadline. This is mostly so that the league can avoid having the deadline occur when games are going on and players have to be removed in a “hug watch” scenario.
If the deadline were to fall on a weekend, when there are many afternoon games, the chances of a player being dealt during an ongoing game would be higher. The commissioner’s office seems to have decided that Tuesday evening is the best choice, as this is the third straight year that the deadline will fall at that part of the week.
Michael Brantley To Retire
Outfielder Michael Brantley is going to retire, he tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com. “It’s time for me to be home 24/7, watch my kids grow up, and not miss important milestones,” he said.
Brantley, now 36, has spent over a decade as one of the best hitters in the league but his health has been a significant issue in recent years. In 2022, he played just 64 games before getting shut down with right shoulder discomfort. He eventually required surgery, which wiped out the second half of that campaign. The issue lingered into 2023 and he didn’t make it back to the big leagues until late August. He continued battling soreness even when activated off the injured list and only made 57 plate appearances over 15 games on the year. He made 32 more plate appearances for the Astros in the postseason but hit just .179/.281/.321 in those. He received some interest from the Blue Jays this winter but it appears he will hang up his spikes instead.
In the seventh round of the 2005 draft, Brantley was selected by the Brewers, though he would never appear in the big leagues for that club. In July of 2008, the Brewers sent Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and a player to be named later to Cleveland for C.C. Sabathia. Though Cleveland was reportedly choosing between multiple players as that PTBNL, they ultimately went with Brantley in October.
In retrospect, that decision could hardly have worked out better. Brantley didn’t immediately hit the ground running in the majors, getting some brief looks in the years after the trade. He started to get regular playing time from 2011 to 2013, hitting .280/.334/.394 over those years for a wRC+ of 101. He only struck out in 11.6% of his plate appearances, just over half of league averages at that time, showcasing a high-contact approach that would come to be one of his signatures. He was given the nickname “Dr. Smooth” at this time, in honor of his aesthetically pleasing approach.
The club clearly believed in the young doctor, signing him to a four-year, $25MM extension going into 2014, with a club option for 2018. Their faith in him paid off, as he immediately had a tremendous breakout season, hitting 20 home runs and only striking out in 8.3% of his plate appearances. His .327/.385/.506 batting line translated to a 151 wRC+, indicating he was 51% better than the league average hitter. He also stole 23 bases and received solid grades for his outfield defense. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 6.5 wins above replacement, while Baseball Reference had him at 7.0. He finished third in American League MVP voting, behind Mike Trout and Victor Martinez.
His 2015 saw him produce similarly, though just a notch below that elite 2014 campaign. After that came some injury struggles, however. He underwent right shoulder surgery after the 2015 campaign and the issue lingered into 2016. He only played 11 games that season and eventually required a second surgery. With Brantley sitting out the remainder of the campaign, Cleveland still made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, though they eventually lost to the Cubs.
Brantley was back in 2017 but an ankle strain limited him to 90 games. He hit .299/.357/.444 for a wRC+ of 109, below his previous highs but it was nonetheless encouraging after a mostly lost season. In 2018, he shook off some of the rust and was able to slash .309/.364/.468 for a wRC+ of 125. Cleveland returned to the postseason in those years but fell in the ALDS both times. It seems that everyone in Cleveland knew his time there was likely coming to an end, with a report from Chandler Rome and Zack Meisel of The Athletic relaying that everyone in the room cried during his exit interview as he reached free agency.
The Astros had won the World Series in 2017 but then lost the ALCS in 2018. Looking for a clubhouse leader to replace departed veterans like Carlos Beltrán and Brian McCann, they signed Brantley to a two-year, $32MM deal. He took to the leadership role, quickly earning the new moniker of “Uncle Mike.” The second season of that pact ended up being interrupted by the pandemic but Brantley was healthy enough to play 194 out of 222 possible games. He hit .309/.370/.497 in that time for a wRC+ of 132. The Astros made the playoffs both times but lost the 2019 World Series to the Nationals and were dropped in the 2020 ALCS.
Brantley returned to the Astros on another two-year $32MM deal and had another signature season in 2021, hitting .311/.362/.437 for a wRC+ of 121. The Astros were once again felled in the World Series, this time to Atlanta. As mentioned above, Brantley’s 2022 was cut short by yet another shoulder surgery and he had to miss the second half of the season. Though he wasn’t able to play, the report from Rome and Meisel linked above relays that he led a players’ meeting as they were down 2-1 to the Phillies in the World Series. They went on to win the next three games and finally get Brantley a World Series ring.
He now retires having made 6,149 plate appearances in 1,445 regular season games. He only struck out in 10.7% of those trips to the plate, playing in an era where the league-wide rate often pushed well beyond double that. He batted .298/.355/.439 overall while getting 1,656 hits, 348 doubles, 25 triples and 129 home runs. He stole 125 bases, scored 758 runs and drove in 720. He produced 28.8 fWAR and 34.3 bWAR, earning over $112MM in the process. He also played in 62 postseason games between his two clubs. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Brantley on an excellent career and wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.
Angels, Padres, Pirates Interested In Michael A. Taylor
Free agent center fielder Michael A. Taylor is drawing interest from the Angels, Padres and Pirates, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that the Halos are also considering Adam Duvall as a free agent outfield target.
Taylor should have the broader market of the two veterans. His ability to play an excellent center field makes him a strong fit on a number of teams. He could operate as a glove-first regular for clubs without a strong in-house option in center or serve as a high-end fourth outfield target for others. The Dodgers, Reds, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mets have also been linked to Taylor earlier in the offseason. Toronto and New York subsequently signed Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, respectively, likely taking them out of the mix.
Boston acquired Tyler O’Neill as a right-handed hitter with the ability to play anywhere in the outfield. That could reduce their urgency on Taylor, but Murray suggests they’re still involved. He adds that a return to the Twins, with whom Taylor spent the 2023 campaign, also remains a possibility.
For teams that aren’t going to entertain a run at Cody Bellinger, Taylor is the top center fielder on the open market. He remains a high-end defender even as he enters his age-33 season. Taylor has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his career, but he’s coming off one of his better offensive showings. He popped a career-best 21 home runs in just 388 plate appearances. Taylor still struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances and hit .220 with a meager .278 on-base percentage. Yet the defense and the ability to run into 15-20 homers while hitting in the bottom third of a lineup makes him a serviceable regular.
The Angels have a projected outfield of Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Mickey Moniak. Ward missed the final couple months of last year after sustaining facial fractures on a frightening hit-by-pitch. Trout hasn’t reached 120 games or 500 plate appearances in a season since 2019 because of various injuries. Moniak posted solid bottom line results last year, hitting .280/.307/.495 through 323 plate appearances. However, that came with a 35% strikeout rate and a 2% walk percentage that are even worse than Taylor’s career baselines.
Moniak is a clear regression candidate who is better suited in a fourth outfield capacity. Even if the Halos are optimistic about his ability to produce against right-handed pitching, the former #1 overall pick has a .172/.200/.230 slash in 91 career plate appearances versus lefties. The righty-hitting Taylor has been better against southpaws than against right-handed pitching, as one would expect. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .257/.317/.455 hitter with the platoon advantage.
Duvall also hits from the right side. While he has had reverse platoon splits in recent years, he’s a better overall offensive player than either Moniak or Taylor — albeit with a similar low-OBP, power profile. He hit 21 homers in 353 plate appearances for the Red Sox last season, running a .247/.303/.531 slash. Duvall can play some center field but is better suited for a corner spot entering his age-35 season.
As for the other clubs recently linked to Taylor, each of Pittsburgh, San Diego and Minnesota are viable fits. The Padres need to bring in multiple outfielders after trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. They’d seemingly prefer to keep Fernando Tatis Jr. in right field rather than moving him up the middle. José Azocar (a career .249/.292/.341 hitter) and prospect Jakob Marsee are the top internal options in a center field position that requires an outside pickup.
Minnesota leaned heavily on Taylor last year as knee injuries kept Byron Buxton to designated hitter. While the Twins have expressed hope that Buxton could handle outfield work again in 2024, they can’t count on him to make 120+ starts at the position.
The Pirates could turn center field back to Jack Suwinski, although public metrics were mixed on his defensive performance. Bryan Reynolds can handle center on occasions but fits best in left. Right field is a question mark, with trade pickup Edward Olivares likely battling Joshua Palacios for work. Andrew McCutchen will see the majority of his time at designated hitter while rotating through the corners. Signing Taylor could allow the Bucs to kick Suwinski to right field and boast a strong defensive outfield.
Kiermaier and Bader each signed one-year pacts worth $10.5MM. Taylor could be in line for something similar, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if he landed a two-year deal at a lower annual value but a slightly better overall guarantee.
Yankees Sign Cody Poteet To Major League Deal
January 5: The Yankees have now officially announced the signing.
January 4: The Yankees have signed right-hander Cody Poteet to a major league contract, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Sherman adds that the Beverly Hills Sports Council client has already passed his physical. Poteet will make $750K in the majors and $200K in the minors, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. The club’s 40-man roster count was at 38 coming into today but they just claimed Bubba Thompson off waivers and this deal would fill out the roster once made official.
Poteet, 29, has a small amount of major league experience, having pitched for the Marlins in 2021 and 2022. He threw 58 2/3 innings in that time over nine starts and 10 relief appearances, posting an earned run average of 4.45. He struck out 21.5% of batters faced, walked 11% and kept 42.1% of balls in play on the ground. He also threw 14 2/3 innings in the minors in that time with a 1.84 ERA, 37.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.
He underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 and was outrighted by the Marlins at the end of that season. He signed a minor league deal with the Royals and he spent the year rehabbing, eventually making one Triple-A appearance late in September. Sherman says that the Royals and Poteet had a two-year minor league deal but with an understanding that the could opt out if he wasn’t selected in the Rule 5 draft and wasn’t subsequently added to the 40-man roster.
Poteet still has a full slate of options, so he can be kept in the minors if he doesn’t earn himself a job on the active roster. The Yanks traded away a decent amount of starting depth in the Juan Soto trade, with Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez all going to San Diego in that deal. They have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes in three spots but are looking for rotation upgrades, showing interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Clarke Schmidt will likely have a job at the back end while Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren figure to be in the mix as well.
Regardless of whether they sign another pitcher or not, Poteet should give them some extra depth. Since he has done a bit of starting and relieving, he could perhaps slot in wherever he’s needed, depending on the club’s needs and his own results. His service time clock is at one year and 145 days, meaning he could be controlled for five more seasons, with optionable assignments potentially pushing that back even further.
Rays Sign Burch Smith To Minor League Deal
The Rays announced today that they have signed right-hander Burch Smith to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league camp.
Smith, 34 in April, has 191 innings of major league experience, scattered across various seasons from 2013 to 2021. He has a 6.03 earned run average in that time, though his 4.93 FIP and 4.38 SIERA suggest he deserved much better. That may be a reflection of his .322 batting average on balls in play and 67.5% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side of average.
He has spent the past two years overseas, joining the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2022 season. He tossed 38 1/3 innings for the Lions with a 3.29 ERA, then joined the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization for 2023. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder strain early in the year and was released in mid-April. KBO teams are only allowed three roster spots for foreign players so it’s not uncommon for them to be released and replaced if they suffer a significant injury.
More recently, Smith got back on the mound when he joined Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League. He has thrown 14 1/3 innings for that club with a 2.51 ERA, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. That’s a small sample but Smith has generally been able to rack up strikeouts at Triple-A in his career, punching out 26.2% of hitters at that level. Now that he’s healthy and pitching well, he’ll head into camp with the Rays and try to earn his way back into the big leagues. If he is able to do so, he still has an option remaining, which could be attractive to a Rays club which is one of the league’s most aggressive with roster churn.
Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease
The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.
Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.
With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.
For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.
Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.
Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.
His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.
The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.
Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.
But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”
With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.
The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.
As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.
The Opener: Pitching Market, Yankees, Arb Deals
Here are three things we’re watching around the baseball world today…
1. Pitching market heating up?
There’s less than six weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and still plenty of moves left to be made, meaning the offseason has to pick up momentum soon. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to holds things up for a while, then the holidays put things on pause. Now that all that is settled, there’s plenty of smoke starting to appear around guys like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga and Dylan Cease, meaning things could be about to get hectic.
2. Yankees in the spotlight:
It appears the Yankees are set to be one of the most aggressive clubs in that pitching market. They missed on Yamamoto and traded away a bunch of pitching depth in the Juan Soto deal, leaving them looking to bolster their rotation before the offseason is done. Will they be able to make a big splash in the coming weeks?
3. Arbitration deals upcoming:
January 12 is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures for the upcoming season. With that date just a week away, there may be some deals that get locked down in the preceding days. Many clubs have a “file and trial” approach where they won’t do a deal after the filing deadline, so it can serve as a sort of ticking clock for any player that wants to avoid a hearing.
Braves, Chris Sale Agree To Two-Year Deal
The Braves and left-hander Chris Sale have agreed to a new deal, which will pay him $38MM over the next two years. The Wasserman client will earn $16MM in 2024 and $22MM in 2025 and there’s also an $18MM club option for 2026. Sale was already under contract via an extension he previously signed with the Red Sox but this will overwrite that.
Sale was acquired from the Red Sox last week, in a trade that sent Vaughn Grissom to Boston. The Sox also included $17MM to cover the remainder of Sale’s contract, a five-year, $145MM extension he and the Red Sox signed in 2019. As part of that deal, Sale was set to make $27.5MM in 2024, though $10MM of that was deferred until 15 years in the future. With the $17MM coming from the Sox, Atlanta was only going to be paying him $500K. There was also a $20MM club option for 2025.
As part of this new deal, Sale’s $16MM salary will be pretty close to the non-deferred money he was going to make in 2024. He will no longer have that deferred $10MM payment down the road, but he will have $22MM locked in for the 2025 season. That gives him some extra security in the event of more health problems cropping up this year. Sale pitched less than 50 total innings over the 2020-2022 period, mostly due to Tommy John surgery but also due to other ailments. Last year, he was able to toss 102 2/3 frames but a stress reaction in his shoulder blade kept him out of action for over two months. Any further health issues would have perhaps given the club some hesitation about picking up the 2025 option but Sale has now locked in a notable salary for next year.
For Atlanta, this is a show of faith in the soon-to-be-35-year-old. They could have simply employed Sale for 2024 and then walked away if things didn’t go well, with the club option there to keep him around if he had a strong campaign for his new club. But they have now committed themselves to at least two years of Sale, with the club option now kicked down the road to 2026. As mentioned, Sale hasn’t been fully healthy in the past four years and even had some issues before that. Some shoulder and elbow issues kept him around 150 innings in 2018 and 2019, meaning his last fully healthy campaign was 2017.
Back then, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league, finishing that 2017 season with a 2.90 ERA. Last year, he wasn’t quite as dominant, with a 4.30 at the end of the season. The peripherals were a bit better, however, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate that were both strong.
Despite that fairly solid bounceback season, it’s obviously a gamble to bet on a pitcher that has been hurt so much, locking him up for his age-35 and age-36 seasons. But the club has a decent amount of rotation uncertainty going forward. Max Fried is entering his final year of club control while Charlie Morton is one year from free agency as well. Morton has flirted with retirement before and is going into his age-40 season, making it possible he won’t be back in 2025.
Prior to this deal, Sale was a potential to depart as well, depending on the outcome of the club option. Now that he’s under contract for 2025, he can be pencilled into next year’s rotation next to Spencer Strider. The club will still have to fill out the rest of the rotation, but perhaps internal options like Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep will have taken steps forwards between now and then.
There’s also the competitive balance tax to consider. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded to reflect what remains of the contract. That means that Sale was going to have a $27.5MM CBT hit prior to this deal, with the Sox absorbing $17MM of that. But that will now drop to $19MM, leaving just $2MM on Atlanta’s CBT ledger this year but $19MM next year. Going into today, the club’s CBT figure was at $276MM, per Roster Resource. That’s right against the third tax threshold of $277MM, which is a notable line to cross. Clubs that go over the third threshold have their top pick in the next draft pushed back by 10 slots, in addition to an increased tax rate. By lowering Sale’s CBT hit, the club will have a bit more breathing room to make more moves, either now or during the season.
Ultimately, it’s a pact that works for both sides. Atlanta gets a bit more luxury tax space and also, hopefully, a better rotation outlook in 2025 and maybe even 2026. Sale, meanwhile, locks in some future earnings to guard against any continued health issues.