Brewers’ Colin Rea Will Be A Free Agent This Winter
After signing a minor league deal with the Brewers last winter, Colin Rea ended up pitching 119 2/3 innings at the big league level, starting 21 of his 25 games. The right-hander will now look to build off that resume on the open market, as MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams (via X) reports that Rea’s contract contains language that will allow him to enter free agency this winter, even though Rea is still well short of the six full years of MLB service time usually required to become a free agent. Rea entered 2023 with three years and 90 days of service time, and after having his contract selected by Milwaukee in April was shuttled back and forth several times between the active roster and Triple-A Nashville.
Rea spent 2022 with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball, posting a 3.96 ERA in 100 innings of work. As Adams notes, it isn’t unusual for players returning from playing in Japan or other international leagues to have some kind of free agent-related clause in their contracts, giving them a bit more flexibility to seek out a larger deal (whether in MLB or abroad) than they would receive as an arbitration-eligible player still under their team’s control.
Rea turned 33 in July, so it makes sense that he would want to maximize his earning potential now since he could be nearing the end of his career by the time he banked six years of service time. Prior to 2023, Rea had totaled 154 1/3 career MLB innings with the Padres, Marlins, Cubs, and Brewers, pitching in the 2015-16 seasons and then not appearing in the majors again until 2020 and 2021. In the three years between those two stints, Rea pitched in the minors but spent a big chunk of the time recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Rea had a 4.90 ERA over his first 154 1/3 Major League frames, and his numbers in 2023 were pretty similar. The righty had a 4.74 ERA/4.46 SIERA for Milwaukee this season, with strikeout and hard-hit ball rates that were well below the league average. On the plus side, Rea’s 7.6% walk rate and 44.2% grounder rate weren’t necessarily spectacular, but they were both in the 62nd percentile of all pitchers. As has been the case for a lot of his career, home runs hampered Rea’s performance, as he allowed 23 homers in his 119 2/3 innings.
The statistics may not jump off the page, yet Rea was a valuable fill-in arm for the Brewers, getting the call to eat innings and cover starts while Milwaukee dealt with numerous rotation injuries this season. Since teams are forever in need of pitching, Rea has a shot at landing a guaranteed Major League contract in free agency, as he can provide rotation depth or work as a swingman out of the bullpen.
The Opener: AL East Race, Rangers/Mariners Series, Acuna
There are only four days left in the regular season, so here are some of the top stories entering Thursday’s action…
1. Orioles on verge of clinching:
Four of the six division winners have already been crowned, but the Orioles could join the club with a win over the Red Sox today. Baltimore’s magic number has dropped to one, so just a single O’s win or Rays loss would make the Orioles AL East champions for the first time since 2014, and for just the third time in their last 40 seasons. In addition to a first-place finish in the AL East, the Orioles would also secure the top seed and home-field advantage throughout at least the American League’s side of the postseason bracket. (At 99-59, the Orioles probably aren’t catching the 102-56 Braves for the top seed throughout the playoffs.) It was just in 2021 that the Orioles were 52-110 and still seemingly caught in the throes of a rebuild, making their sudden rise back to prominence all the sweeter for Baltimore fans.
2. Rangers and Mariners begin a critical series:
The Rangers are also closing in on the AL West, though with a magic number of two and with the Astros not playing on Thursday, Texas won’t be able to clinch the division until Friday at the earliest. Still, heading into the start of this big four-game series between the two AL West rivals, the wild card race will also be a focus since the Mariners sit 1.5 games behind Houston for the third and final AL wild card berth. With a 9-16 record in September, the Mariners are no longer in control of their own playoff fate, as they’ll have to both pick up at least a couple of wins over Texas and hope for collapses from either the Astros or Blue Jays to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card. If the Mariners sweep Texas, a longshot scenario also exists that would see the M’s still capture the AL West. Jordan Montgomery is the Rangers’ scheduled starter tonight, while Logan Gilbert will take the hill for the Mariners.
3. Acuna founds the 40-70 club:
Okay, so it’s technically the 41-70 club, and Ronald Acuna Jr. had also been the only person in the 41-68 club, the 40-68 club, the 39-68 club, and so forth. But, since round-number achievements just have a bit more of a ring to them, Acuna’s incredible season at both the plate and on the basepaths hit yet another big milestone yesterday when he stole his 69th and 70th bases of the season. No player with at least 40 homers in a season had ever stolen as many as 46 bags in the same year before Acuna exponentially raised the bar in 2023.
While Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Braves teammate Matt Olson will have something to say in NL MVP voting, Acuna’s huge season is increasingly looking like the favorite to capture the award. Hitting the 70-steal plateau is also of particular note for a player who suffered a torn ACL just two years ago, making Acuna’s return to not just his old form but to new stolen-base heights all the more remarkable. MVP results aside, Acuna’s biggest goal is to help lead the Braves to a championship, as his ACL tear forced him to miss Atlanta’s run to the 2021 World Series.
Padres Prefer To Retain A.J. Preller, Bob Melvin In 2024
The Padres have been one of the most disappointing teams in the majors relative to preseason expectations this season, with the club’s 78-80 record putting them on the verge of mathematical elimination from playoff contention despite a $255MM payroll (per RosterResource) funding a star-studded roster that includes the likes of Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Manny Machado. Despite the failures of the 2023 season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported today that Padres chairman Peter Seidler hopes to retain both president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and manager Bob Melvin in their current positions for the 2024 season.
The news comes on the heels of reports of considerable change coming for the Padres this offseason and a deep disconnect between Melvin and Preller. Acee affirms the “fractured” relationship between the two, and notes that despite Seidler’s preference to retain both men firing one or both of them is nonetheless on the table if the two are unable to improve their working relationship. Acee notes that a “significant meeting” between Seidler, Melvin, Preller, and additional advisors will take place shortly after the conclusion of the regular season. The impending meeting, which will focus on an “internal review” the club has reportedly been conducting, figures to impact the club’s decision on whether or not to retain either or both men for the 2024 campaign.
Acee elaborates on the frayed relationship between Preller and Melvin, noting that a disconnect has been evident for more than a year but that things have worsened throughout the difficult 2023 campaign to the point where sources have described the relationship as “irreconcilable” to Acee, though he makes clear that those sources do not include Preller, Melvin, or “those who would have a voice in their fate.”
In terms of the feud’s direct impact on the season, Acee notes that the club’s players indicate that the relationship between Melvin and Preller shouldn’t matter to the team on the field, though he also points to situations surrounding two players that sources indicate were impacted by philosophical differences between the club’s two most front-facing officials. Per Acee, Hader’s concerns about being overused ahead of free agency this winter and veteran slugger Matt Carpenter‘s usage were both situations exacerbated by the rift between Preller and Melvin.
Carpenter, in particular, has recorded just 52 plate appearances since the start of July despite having remained on the roster throughout the entire season until September 15, when he was placed on the injured list with inflammation in his right elbow. Acee’s sources indicate that the veteran remained on the roster at Preller’s insistence, despite a brutal .180/.310/.327 slash line with a 30.8% strikeout rate in 185 trips to the plate through the end of June.
Acee paints a picture of a divided organization, indicating that despite Preller’s importance in the club’s turnaround in recent years, his relentless work ethic causes issues with his interpersonal relationships, even beyond Melvin. Meanwhile, Acee notes that front office officials have expressed frustration with Melvin’s unwillingness to accept their input, even as Preller and the front office have largely given him control of day-to-day lineup decisions.
One thing that could impact the potential for either Melvin or Preller to depart is the financial aspect. With the Padres already expected to cut payroll this offseason, it’s hardly a surprise that ownership would prefer not to part ways with either of the organization’s highly-paid officials. Per Acee, Melvin is set to make $4MM in the final year of his contract next year, while Preller’s current contract pays him somewhere between $7MM and $10MM across the next three seasons.
AL West Notes: Scherzer, Rangers, A’s, Schanuel
Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer hasn’t been ruled out for contributing to the Rangers’ postseason push this year despite having suffered a teres major strain earlier this month. Just two weeks after being placed on the IL with the issue, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News noted that Scherzer had worked his way up to throwing a “light” bullpen today. Scherzer wouldn’t put a timeline on his potential return, telling reporters (including Grant) that “If you target dates, you get emotional & then you compete with the injury.”
Scherzer managing to return to the Rangers this postseason would provide a massive boost to the club’s pitching staff, which offers little certainty beyond lefty Jordan Montgomery and veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi without its future Hall of Fame ace fronting the rotation. It’s been an up-and-down year for Scherzer, who’s posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.33 FIP in 152 2/3 innings of work this year. While those numbers are uncharacteristically close to average for the veteran ace, he seemingly flipped a switch upon being traded to Texas. The righty posted a 2.21 ERA and 2.47 FIP in his first six starts with the club with a 33.6% strikeout rate, looking like vintage Scherzer before a pair of injury-shortened starts that preceded his trip to the injured list.
More from around the AL West…
- Sticking with the Rangers, the club activated left-hander Josh Sborz from the 15-day IL today and optioned lefty Jake Latz to Triple-A in a corresponding move. While Sborz sports a well below average 5.80 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work this year, his peripheral stats indicate a much stronger performance as indicated by his 3.90 FIP, 3.41 xERA, 3.24 xFIP, and 3.11 SIERA. Much of this discrepancy comes from an extremely low 55.3% strand rate combined with an excellent strikeout rate (30.6%), solid walk rate (8.3%), and strong groundball rate (46.8%). If Sborz’s results can improve, he could be a valuable left-handed option out of the club’s bullpen headed into the postseason.
- MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed in an interview with the Associated Press today an earlier report by Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that MLB owners will vote on the Athletics‘ relocation bid during the owners’ meetings, which are scheduled for November 14-16. Akers also notes that the club is expected to announce the architect for the impending stadium prior to that announcement, with that decision expected to come as soon as next month. At least 75% of owners will need to approve the relocation proposal, though that is widely expected to be all but guaranteed.
- Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel has been out of action since fouling a pitch off his knee on Monday, which prompted him to exit the game in the seventh inning. While he’s missed the past two games nursing the injury, manager Phil Nevin indicated to reporters (including MLB.com) that the club was hopeful Schanuel would be able to return to the starting lineup as soon as Friday, following the club’s day off tomorrow. The Angels’ first-round pick in this year’s draft, Schanuel was called up to the big league club just one month after being drafted and has performed admirably in his first taste of both major league and professional pitching this summer, with a .284/.407/.343 slash line that clocks in at 16% better than league average by measure of wRC+. The club has relied on Brandon Drury at first base in Schanuel’s absence.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Baez, Arias
The Twins are the only AL Central team headed to the playoffs this year, and they’re set to do so with a handful of key players on the injured list. Fortunately, as noted by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune, shortstop Carlos Correa, third baseman Royce Lewis, and outfielder Byron Buxton all participated in a simulated game this afternoon as they work their way back for the upcoming playoff run.
MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park adds more specific details on the timelines of each player: Correa is expected to return in time for the playoffs, and could possibly be activated before the end of the regular season. Lewis is currently able to hit but isn’t running yet, which figures to be a significant hurdle even if the 24-year-old youngster returns exclusively as a DH in the postseason. Buxton, meanwhile, is the most up in the air of the three, though it’s worth noting that the defensive phenom hasn’t been ruled out for a return to the outfield with the Twins this postseason.
Overall this year, Buxton has slashed just .207/.294/.438 in 85 games with the Twins while being exclusively relegated to DH. That’s significantly hampered his value, as Buxton is one of the best defenders in the sport when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Meanwhile, Correa’s bat has taken a major step back this year as well with a slash line of just .230/.312/.399 in 580 trips to the plate this year, though as the club’s everyday shortstop his return should nonetheless help stabilize the club’s infield situation. Overall, Lewis appears likely to impact the Twins the most of the trio this postseason in terms of offense, as he’s posted incredible numbers when healthy enough to take the field. In 239 trips to the plate this year, Lewis has slashed an incredible .309/.372/.548 while playing third base for the Twins.
More from the AL Central…
- Despite Tigers shortstop Javier Baez being in the midst of what’s become the worst full season of his career, the 30-year-old veteran apparently hasn’t ruled out the possibility of opting out of the final four years and $98MM left on his contract with Detroit after the season comes to a close. In conversation with reporters, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, Baez said “I don’t know what’s going to happen, to be honest with you,” noting that after the season the sides would “sit down… and see what’s going to happen in the offseason.” Given that Baez has been a bottom-four qualified shortstop this year in terms of fWAR ahead of only Enrique Hernandez, Tim Anderson, and Amed Rosario, it would be something of a shock to see the veteran decide to test the open market. That said, he would join a dismal free agent shortstop class this offseason and still sports an elite glove at shortstop, as evidenced by his +8 Outs Above Average, which ranks in the 96th percentile per Baseball Savant.
- Guardians infielder Gabriel Arias is done for the season. As noted by MLB.com, Arias was hit by a pitch over the weekend but returned to the lineup yesterday, only to feel pain after swinging the bat. Upon receiving an MRI, Arias was revealed to have sustained a non-displaced right wrist fracture. It’s a disappointing end to the season for Arias, who required surgery on that same wrist last offseason. The 23-year-old youngster has struggled at the plate in limited playing time over the past two seasons, with a combined .207/.282/.348 slash line in 402 trips to the plate since making is debut in 2022. Looking ahead to 2024, Arias figures to compete with fellow youngster Brayan Rocchio for the shortstop job in Cleveland next year, barring an external addition.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Cora, Diaz, Mountcastle
The Yankees are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in years, but that hasn’t stopped them from looking to get some of their injured players on the mound one last time before the offseason. Right-hander Keynan Middleton has been on the injured list the end of August due to a bout of shoulder inflammation, though MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch notes that Middleton latest bullpen session went well and the 30-year-old figures to return for the club’s final series against the Royals.
Likewise, it remains possible that the Yankees will welcome right-hander Frankie Montas back into the fold before the end of the season as he’s close to being ready to return from offseason shoulder surgery. Hoch has more details on Montas’s long-awaited return, indicating that the plan, if Montas is able to return, is for the righty to act as a piggyback starter behind one of the club’s regular starters in Kansas City, throwing 2-3 innings in relief of the day’s scheduled starter.
With both Middleton and Montas likely headed to free agency this November, it makes sense that both righties are hoping to establish themselves as healthy and effective ahead of their offseason negotiations with interested clubs. Middleton was in the midst of a solid (if unspectacular) season with the White Sox but found another gear following his move to New York at the trade deadline on August 1, after which point he posted a 0.68 ERA with 17 strikeouts in just 13 1/3 innings of work. Overall, he sports a 3.08 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 50 appearances this season. Montas, on the other hand, has not pitched in 2023 but posted a 3.67 ERA and 3.55 FIP across 59 starts the previous two seasons.
More from around the AL East…
- Red Sox manager Alex Cora ended any speculation regarding his future in conversation with reporters today. As relayed by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, Cora twice told reporters this afternoon that he would be returning to the dugout for Boston in 2024. While not especially surprising, the confirmation is nonetheless noteworthy on the heels of the club firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom earlier this month. While speculation mounted that Cora could potentially be considered to replace Bloom in the front office, Cora recently indicated that he intends to stay in the dugout, at least for the time being. Cora took over the Red Sox as manager in 2018 and oversaw the club’s World Series championship that fall. In five seasons at the helm of Boston’s dugout, Cora sports a 438-367 record.
- The Rays have been without first baseman Yandy Diaz in recent days due to a hamstring issue. Fortunately, Diaz appears to be nearing a return, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Diaz is feeling better and figures to return to the field in Toronto this weekend. That’s excellent news for the Rays, as Diaz has been the club’s best hitter this year with an incredible .324/.408/.515 slash line in 596 trips to the plate this year.
- The Orioles announced earlier today that they have activated first baseman Ryan Mountcastle from the injured list, with outfielder Ryan McKenna optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Mountcastle’s return is great news for the AL East-leading Orioles, as the first baseman has slashed .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season. He figures to join a deep 1B/DH mix that already includes Ryan O’Hearn and Anthony Santander ahead of Baltimore’s impending postseason run.
Angels Select Kelvin Caceres
The Angels have selected the contract of right-hander Kelvin Caceres, per a team announcement. In corresponding moves, left-hander Aaron Loup has been transferred to the 60-day IL while right-hander Jose Marte was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake.
Caceres, 23, began the 2023 campaign at High-A before quickly advancing to Double-A and then Triple-A by the end of the season. Across all three levels, Caceres owns a 4.12 ERA in 54 2/3 innings of work. Since being promoted to Triple-A, however, Caceres has been nothing short of dominant with a 0.90 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate despite a 12.5% walk rate in ten innings of work. That small-sample success is particularly impressive given the extreme offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, where the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate plays. Caceres will look to get into one of the last few games of the regular season for his major league debut as the Angels look to cover innings ahead of the offseason.
Making room for Caceres on the 40-man roster, is Loup, which is little more than a procedural move. After all, Loup’s 2023 campaign was already expected to come to a close after his placement on the injured list earlier this month with a shoulder strain. The 35-year-old veteran struggled through a difficult season in 2023 as he posted a 6.10 ERA across 55 appearances, albeit with a more palatable 4.37 FIP. The Angels hold a $7.5MM club option on Loup’s services in 2024, but given his downturn in performance it seems more likely the club will opt for a $2MM buyout on the option, allowing Loup to test the open market this offseason.
Meanwhile, the Angels optioned Marte to make room for Caceres on the active roster. The 27-year-old righty has consistently struggled at the big league level in brief cups of coffee over the past three seasons, with a combined 8.14 ERA and 7.62 FIP in 24 1/3 innings of work in the majors. His work at the Triple-A level, while certainly an improvement, also leaves something to be desired; he’s posted a 5.83 ERA in 46 1/3 innings of work at the highest level of the minor leagues during his career.
Cubs Activate Jeimer Candelario From 10-Day Injured List
The Cubs announced this afternoon that infielder Jeimer Candelario has been activated from the 10-day injured list. Infielder Jared Young was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move.
The return of Candelario, 29, should provide the Cubs with a boost for the final five games of the 2023 regular season, all of which could prove crucial for Chicago. Entering play today, the Cubs hold just a half-game lead over the Marlins and a 1.5-game lead over the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Candelario was Chicago’s big splash at the trade deadline this year, as they shipped a pair of prospects to the Nationals in lefty D.J. Herz and shortstop Kevin Made to land the infielder’s services.
At the time of the trade, Candelario was slashing an impressive .258/.342/.481 in 419 trips to the plate with 30 doubles and 16 homers. He got off to a hot start in Chicago with a .305/.370/.524 slash line in his first 92 trips to the plate with the club, though he entered a brutal slump for his final 13 games prior to hitting the shelf with a .083/.227/.278 line across 44 trips to the plate. Adding the bat Candelario flashed at the start of his time with the Cubs this year, or even the production from his stint with the Nationals earlier this year, would provide a huge boost to a Cubs lineup that has been forced to rely on depth options like Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom in his absence.
Making room for Candelario on the active roster is Young, who has looked like a roughly league-average corner bat during his limited time in the big leagues. In 21 games (65 plate appearances) across the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, the 27-year-old rookie owns a .224/.308/.466 slash line with a 29.2% strikeout rate. In addition to those solid small-sample numbers in the big leagues, Young has torn the cover off the ball at the Triple-A level this year with a fantastic .310/.417/.577 slash line in 376 trips to the plate while playing all four corners.
Candelario may not be the only key Cubs piece returning this week, as right-hander Adbert Alzolay told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that his live bullpen session today went well and that he’s hopeful he’ll be able to return for the final series of the regular season in Milwaukee, which begins on Friday. The return of Alzolay could have an even bigger impact for Chicago than Candelario, as the club’s fWAR out of the bullpen (-0.2) since losing Alzolay to the injured list with a forearm strain earlier this month is bottom three in the majors. Alzolay has excelled in 2023 while stepping into the closer role, racking up 22 saves while posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 63 innings of work.
Nationals, Ildemaro Vargas Avoid Arbitration
The Nationals have agreed to a contract with Ildemaro Vargas for the 2024 season, the team announced this afternoon. Financial details of the contract have not yet been made available. The deal will offer Vargas, who was set to be arbitration eligible this offseason, some security regarding his place in the organization headed into next season.
In exchange for guaranteeing Vargas his 2024 salary and, presumably, spot on the club’s 40-man roster throughout the offseason, the Nationals are getting cost certainty on a veteran infielder who’s proven to be a valuable bench piece during his time in Washington. After kicking off his big league career back in 2015, Vargas spent time with the Cubs, Pirates, Twins, and briefly returned to Arizona before landing in D.C. partway through the 2022 campaign.
Since arriving in the U.S. capitol, Vargas sports a .261/.304/.375 slash line that’s been good for a wRC+ of 90 while boasting a strikeout rate well below 10%. His high-contract, switch-hitting bat offers additional value off the bench thanks to his positional versatility. Vargas has played all four infield positions during his major league career in addition to left field. For a young Nationals club that has little infield depth behind CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia, retaining Vargas gives the club some insurance as they head into a critical offseason with plenty of top prospects on the horizon as soon as this time next year.
Of course, that Vargas figures to remain on the roster headed into 2024 doesn’t mean he figures to continue as the club’s starting third baseman, a role he assumed after Jeimer Candelario was shipped to the north side of Chicago for two prospects. While the pending free agent class isn’t exactly robust in terms of hitters, the coming group at the hot corner includes a handful of interesting veterans like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Brian Anderson who could turn to the Nationals as an opportunity to draw regular starts in the majors as Candelario did this past offseason.
Vargas signing could also have an impact on fellow arbitration-eligible bench pieces like Michael Chavis and Dominic Smith. Both players are due for raises headed into the 2024 campaign, and could be feasible non-tender candidates for a club that already has Vargas’s veteran infield presence locked into next season’s bench group. Vargas’s return could also impact the opportunities afforded to players like Carter Kieboom and Jeter Downs who have yet to establish themselves in the big leagues.
Mets Shut Starling Marte Down For The Season
Starling Marte has officially been shut down for the season, Mets manager Buck Showalter announced to reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). The outfielder has been on the injured list with a groin strain since early August.
Up until this point, Marte was holding out hope he could return before the end of the year. However, he also knew it was a possibility he’d need groin surgery in the offseason. He had groin surgery last winter, too, and given his poor performance this season, it seems like he never fully recovered.
It’s understandable why Marte would want to get back in the lineup for one last chance to turn around his disappointing season, but it’s hard to argue with the team’s decision to shut him down. With the Triple-A season complete, he would have had to return without a rehab assignment, and considering the Mets’ 71-85 record, there was never going to be a good reason to rush him back and risk his long-term health. The 34-year-old is under contract for two more seasons, and it is in everyone’s best interest to make sure he’s fully healthy before he gets back on the field.
From 2021-22, Marte was one of the better hitting outfielders in the game. In just over 1,000 plate appearances, he posted an .828 OPS with 28 home runs and 65 stolen bases. Unfortunately, he looked like a shell of his former self in 2023, posting career-worst numbers across the board. His .625 OPS was the lowest of his career by nearly 100 points. Perhaps with an offseason of rest and recovery (and potentially surgery), Marte will be able to rediscover his All-Star form in 2024.