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Rays Notes: 40-Man Roster, Trades, Choi, Kiermaier

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Several teams are facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter, with the Rays in particular facing a lot of tough decisions due to the depth in their talented farm system.  As such, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the Rays have been “in advanced trade negotiations” and could make multiple deals before Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.  The Reds, Cubs, Mets, and Angels are among the teams who have called the Rays in search of pitching.

Any number of options could be on the table for a Tampa Bay front office that is always seeking roster and payroll flexibility.  It is possible and even likely that the Rays might not swing any major deals, as Tampa might first be exploring the trade value of any players at the back end of their 40-man roster.  Before leaving these players unprotected or maybe even non-tendering them or designating them for assignment, the Rays first want to check if anything can be obtained in exchange for these somewhat expendable pieces.

A more interesting wrinkle would see the Rays discussing trades involving prospects or part-time players who might also be a bit superfluous within the organization.  Last November, the Rays dealt Louis Head, Mike Brosseau, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Tobias Myers in separate trades in the week prior to the 40-man deadline.  Of that group, only Brosseau had some success at the MLB level in 2022, posting some solid numbers in a reserve role with the Brewers.

Of course, the biggest headline-grabber for the Rays would be a trade involving a regular on their Major League roster, and this possibility certainly can’t be ruled out given Tampa’s history of aggressive deal-making.  The Rays have a very large arbitration class that they’ve already reduced to “only” 16 remaining players, after trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates and parting ways with Nick Anderson and Roman Quinn.  None of the arbitration-eligibles are projected to earn truly huge money, but every dollar counts for the budget-conscious Rays, and Yandy Diaz ($5.4MM in projected salary), Ryan Yarbrough ($4.2MM) and Randy Arozarena ($4MM) are the most expensive of the bunch.

Yonny Chirinos is projected for $1.6MM and Shawn Armstrong for $1.4MM, and those two hurlers stand out since Morosi reported earlier this week that the Rays were discussing Chirinos, Armstrong, and Yarbrough during the GM Meetings.  It isn’t known if the Reds, Angels, Cubs, or Mets were focused on any of this trio in particular, but any of those pitchers could be potential fits for teams with rotation or bullpen needs.  Chirinos could carry the most intrigue, as the right-hander pitched well in 2018-19 before injuries (a Tommy John surgery and a fractured elbow) limited him to just 18 1/3 MLB innings since the start of the 2020 campaign.

Choi’s projected $4.5MM salary certainly played a role in his move to Pittsburgh, and the Rays were known to be talking to more than just the Pirates about the first baseman.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Padres and Astros also had some interest, with Houston revisiting their interest in Choi from prior to the trade deadline.

The Astros ended up adding Trey Mancini to bolster themselves at first base, but since Mancini and Yuli Gurriel are both free agents, it makes sense that the Astros would again check in on a past target.  Likewise, the Padres have a need at first base with Josh Bell hitting the open market.  Choi is scheduled for free agency himself next winter and thus probably wouldn’t have been seen a longer-term add for either team, or even a full-time option.  Either Houston or San Diego might have opted to just play Choi against right-handed pitching.

Also from Topkin’s notes column, he had an interesting wrinkle to the end of Kevin Kiermaier’s tenure in Tampa Bay.  There was no doubt that the Rays were going to buy out Kiermaier for $2.5MM rather than exercise his $13MM club option for 2023, yet Kiermaier said that he heard an unknown team had some talks with the Rays about a veritable sign-and-trade deal.  In this scenario, the Rays would have exercised the club option and then swapped Kiermaier to this mystery team.

Given that Kiermaier is coming off a season shortened by hip surgery, it doesn’t seem likely that the other club would’ve been too keen to give up an asset to absorb that entire $13MM contract.  It is more probable that the other team perhaps offered another undesirable contract in return to help offset the cost, or maybe had Kiermaier involved as part of a larger trade package.  In any case, the Rays weren’t interested, and preferred to just decline the option — perhaps with an eye towards re-signing Kiermaier at a lower price.

Guardians’ Chris Antonetti On Shane Bieber, Catchers

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In an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti flatly rejected the idea that Shane Bieber will be a trade candidate this winter.  “We have every intention of trying to contend next year, and trying to win a World Series.  And, Shane Bieber will be a big part of that for us,” Antonetti said.

Naturally, some gamesmanship could be at play here, and the Guards (at least as a matter of due diligence) would consider any serious offer another team might float for Bieber.  Given Cleveland’s history of trading star players as their arbitration costs rise, the Bieber trade speculation won’t really end until he actually does change teams, or unless he signs an extension.  However, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that moving Bieber isn’t on the Guardians’ radar in the near future.

Bieber was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter, and avoided a hearing by working out a $6MM contract for the 2022 season.  The high number reflected Bieber’s early success, which included All-Star appearances in 2019 and 2021, and the AL Cy Young Award during the shortened 2020 season.

The right-hander kept on rolling through 2022, posting a 2.88 over an even 200 innings, with a 48.2% grounder rate, an elite 4.6% walk rate and an above-average 25% strikeout rate.  While that K% was his lowest since 2018, Bieber seemed to trade strikeouts for extra control, changing up his mix of pitches with great success.  Bieber used his curveball a lot less and his cutter a lot more, with both pitches becoming more effective as a result.

Now projected for a healthy raise to $10.7MM in 2023, Bieber’s salary isn’t really onerous for a Guardians team that doesn’t have much committed to its 2023 or longer-term payroll pictures.  Plus, as Antonetti noted, Cleveland wants to compete for a championship, so it is possible ownership might be willing to even stretch the budget a bit to supplement a title run.

Next winter, it is possible things could change.  Bieber’s third and final arbitration year should be worth well over $15MM if he continues this good form, and he is scheduled to reach free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  An extension would lock Bieber up in Cleveland for good, yet the Guardians traditionally tend to only extend players early in their careers (though Jose Ramirez’s extension last spring was a very prominent exception to this rule).

Come next winter or possibly even at midseason if the Guardians fell out of contention, a Bieber trade might seem much more feasible.  Waiting another season to really explore a Bieber deal would also give Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff more time to evaluate Bieber’s replacements — as always, the Guards have a wealth of young arms in the pipeline who have already made their MLB debuts, or are on the verge of debuting.  Within the current rotation, Triston McKenzie also had a nice breakout in 2022 and now looks like a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Antonetti also discussed several other topics during the interview, including the Guardians’ needs behind the plate.  Austin Hedges is set to hit free agency, and “catching is an area where we will continue to explore options,” the PBO said.  “If we can find a way to add some offense and add a bat somewhere throughout the lineup, that’s something we’ll pursue as well.”

As much as the Guardians have been linked to the likes of Oakland’s Sean Murphy in trade rumors, it isn’t necessarily clear that Cleveland will look for an external answer at catcher.  Prospect Bo Naylor had a huge season at Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, resulting in a late-season promotion and his first five big league games.  The Guardians have never been shy about trusting young players in big roles, and this trend could continue given how much they like Naylor.

“We think he’s got a chance to be a really good catcher on all sides of the game,” Antonetti said.  “Not only really talented offensively…he does an extraordinary job of leading the pitching staff.  He’s so motivated to make an impact with the pitchers that he’s kind taken it upon himself to learn Spanish.  And not just the pitches, but actually learn the language so he can build a rapport and relationships with our Spanish-speaking pitchers.”

Giants Interested In Kodai Senga

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With the Giants looking for rotation help, it isn’t surprising that the club has joined the increasingly lengthy list of teams considering Kodai Senga.  President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi discussed and praised Senga with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) earlier this week, noting that the Japanese right-hander is “very physically talented” and “we’ve heard great things about” Senga on a personal level.

“For all pitchers, we look not just at the performance but their pitching style and what adjustments they might have to make coming to Major League Baseball….It’s about evaluating and understanding where his market is going to be and also for us to think about how we can help him, if there’s interest, be as good as he can be in the major leagues,” Zaidi said.

There was also an intriguing visual hint of the Giants’ interest on Saturday, as reporter Marc Delucchi (Twitter link) noticed that a mock-up image of Senga in a Giants uniform was briefly posted on Oracle Park’s scoreboard.  That would seem to hint at some kind of recruiting video or perhaps even an in-person visit was taking place as part of San Francisco’s courtship of the 29-year-old hurler.

The Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs, Dodgers, and Padres have all been linked to Senga’s market, and it’s probably fair to assume that every contender with a rotation need will make a call to Senga’s agent Joel Wolfe.  As per Wolfe’s recent comments to Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago, Senga is “very open minded” about his move to North America, but “would like to play in a big market with a team that wants to try and win right now.  He has a great deal of interest in being in a big market.”

That criteria would seem to give the Giants an edge, as the team has the Bay Area market behind it, and is only a season removed from a 107-55 record.  While the Giants were only a .500 team in 2022, they are expected to be aggressive in reloading the roster for another run, and the team has plenty of available payroll room to add premium talent.

During Zaidi’s tenure, San Francisco has been relatively conservative when it comes to larger contracts, so some kind of splurge will be necessary to land Senga.  MLBTR projects Senga for a five-year, $75MM deal as he makes the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball, with that contract figure reflecting Senga’s age, ability, and what might be required to outbid his many suitors.

Signing Senga would be an immediate way of replacing Carlos Rodon in the Giants’ rotation, though Zaidi has said that the team is also still hoping to bring Rodon back in free agency.  Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, and Jakob Junis comprise the current starting five, yet Wood is coming off a shaky season, DeSclafani an injury-marred season, and the Giants prefer Junis as a long reliever and swingman rather than as a clear-cut starting pitcher.

NL West Notes: Bellinger, Longoria, Diamondbacks, Johnson

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With former MVP Cody Bellinger projected to earn $18.1MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility, there has been plenty of speculation that the 27-year-old might not be tendered a contract.  Los Angeles president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was non-committal about Belllinger’s situation, telling reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers “still very much believe in Belli’s ability,” and that the club has “time to work through what everything looks like” prior to Friday’s deadline.

Unsurprisingly, Bellinger’s agent Scott Boras was quick to downplay the idea of a non-tender, as Boras highlighted his client’s excellent defense, throwing arm, baserunning ability, and age (27).  “You just don’t find talents like this….It’s really about getting his strength back so he can repeat his skill level,” Boras said, noting the injuries that may have caused Bellinger’s huge dropoff at the plate over the last two seasons.  Bellinger has hit only .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 campaign.  However, both Boras and Friedman pointed to the idea that a normal and healthy offseason could help Bellinger get on track, as Bellinger’s regular work with the Dodgers’ hitting coaches and conditioning staff was interrupted last winter by the lockout.

Other notes from around the NL West…

  • Evan Longoria said last month that the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks were his preferred destinations for his final season, with the D’Backs listed alongside Longoria’s two former teams because the veteran third baseman has a home in Arizona.  As such, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks are indeed expected to check in on Longoria in free agency.  The 37-year-old has hit a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season, but injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games.  Josh Rojas’ versatility would allow for Longoria to get some time at third base and at DH, and the D’Backs are looking for right-handed hitting in general.  As Piecoro notes, Longoria has some extra appeal as a veteran leader on a young team.
  • Also from Piecoro’s post, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters that “we have had half the league, at least, talk about our outfielders.”  With so many left-handed hitting young outfielders on the roster, it isn’t surprising that teams are eager to discuss trades about Arizona’s surplus.  However, Hazen quieted rumblings that a trade would occur soon, saying “we’re just starting to get a handle on what type of offers we could make and what makes sense for us to help our major league team.”
  • It doesn’t appear as though Pierce Johnson will re-sign with the Padres, a source tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Elbow tendinitis cost Johnson most of the 2022 campaign, as he pitched only 14 1/3 innings over 15 appearances in the regular season and then 4 1/3 more frames during the playoffs.  The 31-year-old Johnson had strong (3.09 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate) numbers over 78 2/3 innings in 2020-21, albeit with a high 11.1% walk rate.  Since San Diego seems to be moving on, Johnson and his excellent curveball could be an intriguing bounce-back target for the many teams looking for bullpen help in free agency.

Analyzing Boston’s First Base Decision

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Following an unexpected 2021 run that nearly culminated in a World Series berth, the Red Sox found themselves watching this year’s playoffs at home after finishing at the bottom of the AL East. One key area of criticism for the team was their production at first base. With four different players having at least 50 at-bats at the position, Boston struggled to a collective .210/.294/.369 slash line that ranked third-lowest in batting average, sixth-lowest in on-base percentage, seventh-lowest in slugging percentage, and resulted in wRC+ of 85, the fourth-lowest league-wide. This came only a year after Boston’s first basemen slashed a respectable .235/.310/.463, with a boosted .266/.366/.560 line during the second half of the season following the mid-season acquisition of slugger Kyle Schwarber (.291/.435/.522) and the seeming breakout of Bobby Dalbec (.269/.344/.611).

As discussed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook, Boston faces an interesting decision as the team looks to return to playoff contention in 2023. Currently, the Red Sox have four first basemen on their 40-Man roster: rookie Triston Casas, former top-prospect Bobby Dalbec, 1B/OF Franchy Cordero, and veteran Eric Hosmer. As free agency progresses, it’s plausible that at least one of these players loses their spot on the roster before Spring Training.

Starting with the obvious candidate to earn the bulk of playing time in Boston next season, September call-up Triston Casas. Selected by the Red Sox in the first round of the 2018 draft (26th overall), Casas profiles as an above-average hitter who peppers the ball across the entire field. After hitting .273/.382/.481 with 11 homers in Triple-A Worcester during the 2022 season, Casas made his major league debut. The 22-year-old showed promise in his limited at-bats, hitting .197/.358/.408 with five homers in 76 at-bats. Despite his weak batting average, he demonstrated tremendous plate disciple, walking at a 20% clip (compared to the 8.2% league average) while striking out at a slightly elevated rate (24.2% compared to 22.4%).

Casas is controllable through the 2028 season and will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2025 season, making him a favorite to potentially hold down first base in Boston for the better part of the decade.

Another front-runner to remain on the 2023 roster is righty Bobby Dalbec. Like Casas, Dalbec was a top prospect who made a promising debut late in the 2020 season, slashing .264/.359/.600 with eight home runs in 80 at-bats. Given these strong numbers, Dalbec was handed first base to start the 2021 season but struggled, hitting a weaker .219/.264/.409 during the first half of the season. His floundering led Boston to trade for reinforcement in the form of Kyle Schwarber.

However, the trade for Schwarber led to a boost in production from the youngster, with Dalbec hitting a resounding .269/.344/.611 during the second half of the season. Dalbec pointed to Schwarber as a source of his production, saying that the veteran helped him “get through the ball more” and allowed him to “pull the ball more instead of trying to force it out there” before more directly saying that Schwarber was “big for me,” per Khari Thompson of Boston.com.

On the heels of a strong end to his 2021 season, Dalbec was once again penciled in as the Red Sox first baseman and, once again, struggled. Over the first half of the season, Dalbec hit a paltry .205/.286/.344 with a high 31.3% strikeout rate. Following the All-Star break, he showed minor improvements, hitting .237/.277/.430, albeit with a mammoth 38.6% strikeout rate.

With just over two years of service time and a fraction of his 2020 trade value, the Red Sox will likely opt to keep the 27-year-old with the organization. Dalbec has two option years remaining, meaning that the Sox can send him to Triple-A Worcester without having to pass him through waivers and risk losing him to another organization.

Franchy Cordero began the 2022 season in Worcester but was called up in late April after veteran Travis Shaw began the season 0 for 19 with seven strikeouts. He spent most of the season in Boston, accruing 275 plate appearances and slashing a respectable .219/.300/.397 before suffering a right ankle sprain in early September and landing on the 60-day IL.

It was Cordero’s second season with the Sox, joining the team in the Andrew Benintendi trade with Kansas. During the second half of the season, the 28-year-old hit an interesting .191/305/.490 with two homers. MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook has flagged Cordero as a potential non-tender candidate with the six-season veteran projected to earn $1.5M through arbitration.

The last first base option currently on the Red Sox 40-Man is veteran Eric Hosmer. Acquired from the Padres along with prospects at the trade deadline, Hosmer is earning $39MM through the 2025 season, but San Diego is covering all but the league minimum MLB salary.

Since signing his now-infamous deal with the Padres, Hosmer has hit .265/.325/.410, a notable regression from his .292/.351/.449 line over his last five seasons with the Royals. He has had a poor start to his Boston career thus far, hitting .244/.320/.311 in 45 at-bats, but brings playoff experience and veteran leadership to a relatively inexperienced first base corp. Hosmer is also a four-time Gold Glove winner and could be used as a late-game defensive substitute and mentor to Casas before potentially being DFA’d later in the season if the Red Sox need a roster spot, speculatively speaking.

Returning to a general discussion, it is relevant to note that out of the four listed players, only Dalbec possesses a right-handed bat. Additionally, Dalbec has been a stronger hitter against southpaws, batting an above-average .268/.333/.522 against them (compared to .212/.278/.418 against righties) and may carve out a platoon role with the left-handed hitting Casas. Moreover, Cordero is the only player in the group that will be earning a “significant salary” (MLBTR projects him to earn $1.5MM), with Hosmer’s contract paid down to the league minimum by the Padres and Dalbec and Casas not yet reaching arbitration.

Lastly, with the Red Sox opting not to tender designated hitter J.D. Martinez a qualifying offer, Boston now has an open spot in their starting lineup. The team is expected to be active in the free agent market, but it is also plausible that they do not make any big exclusive DH addition and instead use the position to situationally rest players. If this is the case, there is a greater chance that all members of the quartet remain on the roster.

Omar Lopez To Remain With The Astros

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Astros’ first base coach Omar Lopez will return to the coaching staff next season, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. It will be Lopez’s 25th year with the franchise, and comes shortly after bench coach Joe Espada’s reported agreement with the franchise.

Lopez played three seasons of minor league baseball with the White Sox and the Diamondbacks before joining the Astros organization in 1999. He then spent the next eight years working as a scout and as a hitting and infield instructor in Venezuela, being one of the scouts to recommend Jose Altuve to the organization.

In 2008, he transitioned to a coaching role and led Class-A Quad Cities River Bandits until 2018. During that time, Lopez worked with former Astros’ shortstop Carlos Correa and starter Lance McCullers Jr. as they worked their way through the team’s system. Lopez would continue to Double-A Corpus Christi for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, earning the Texas League Manager of the Year award in 2018, before eventually joining Houston in 2020 as their first-base coach.

Mariners Scouting Masataka Yoshida

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The Mariners have joined the growing list of teams interested in Japanese star outfielder Masataka Yoshida, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Morosi adds that the Mariners will be one of Yoshida’s “top suitors” this winter. However, Yoshida’s current team, the Orix Buffaloes, will have to finalize the terms of his posting agreement before the deadline on December 5th.

Yoshida slashed a robust .336/.449/.559 with 21 homers during the 2022 season, his fifth consecutive season with an on-base percentage greater than .400. His blend of contact and power has led to a lot of early interest in the 29-year-old, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that the Yankees are also looking at the left-handed hitter.

During the 2022 season, the Mariners primarily relied on an outfield trio of All-Star Julio Rodriguez and former All-Stars Mitch Haniger and Jesse Winker. That group was aided by utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell. The Mariners also have 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, who spent most of the season in Triple-A Tacoma. Of that group, only Haniger is a free agent, leaving Seattle with a deep outfield mix.

As noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, since Yoshida has not played enough to earn full free agency, the Buffaloes would have to agree to post their star outfielder and would be entitled to a posting fee based on Yoshida’s major league contract. Under the current MLB-NPB agreement, teams interested in Yoshida would have to pay the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Once posted, Yoshida and his representatives will have only 30 days to negotiate a deal with MLB teams. If no agreement is reached during the 30-day window, Yoshida would have to return to the Buffaloes.

Recent players who made the jump from NPB to MLB include Cubs’ outfielder Seiya Suzuki. In Suzuki’s last season with the Hiroshima Carp, the righty slashed .317/.433/.636 which led him to a five-year, $85MM contract with Chicago. However, Suzuki was only 27-years-old when he transitioned to Majors and had posted an OPS north of 1.000 in three of his last four seasons with the Carp.

Joe Espada To Remain In Houston

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Astros Bench Coach Joe Espada will return to Houston for the 2023 season, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Espada had recently interviewed with both the Marlins and the White Sox in their managerial searches but did not receive either role.

A second-round pick in the 1996 draft by the Athletics, Espada played nine minor league seasons, topping out in Triple-A before transitioning to coaching. Espada has been with the Astros since 2017, joining the club after spending time with the Marlins and the Yankees.

Over the past few years, Espada has been a managerial candidate for a handful of teams. Since 2018, he has been linked to leading roles with the Rangers, Cubs, Mets, and Giants, along with the more recent openings with the Marlins and the White Sox.

Red Sox Offer Nathan Eovaldi A Multi-Year Contract

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The Red Sox have reportedly offered All-Star starter Nathan Eovaldi a multi-year contract, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, Bradford notes that a deal between the two parties is not imminent. News of talks between Boston and Eovaldi comes only a few days after the Red Sox issued the righty a qualifying offer (one-year, $19.65MM) that tied draft compensation to the veteran if he signs with a different team.

After making a career-high 32 starts (182 1/3 innings) in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with lower back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, the latter of which limited him to only seven starts in the second half of the season. When healthy, Eovaldi pitched to a strong 3.87 ERA, striking out 22.4% of batters while limiting walks (4.4%). The 22.4% strikeout rate represented a drop from his 2020 (26.1%) and 2021 (25.5%) rates but was accompanied by an increase in his ground ball rate, 47.3% compared to 42.1% in 2021.

Eovaldi had originally joined the Red Sox in 2018, being flipped in late July by the Rays for Jalen Beeks. He quickly earned his worth, helping the franchise win the 2018 World Series before re-signing with Boston on a four-year, $68MM deal that offseason. Over the course of that contract, Eovaldi made 53 starts, pitching 281 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA baseball with strong strikeout (24.4%) and walk (5.6%) rates.

As seen in our 2022-23 Top 50 Free Agent With Predictions list, MLBTR expected Eovaldi to receive a shorter deal (2-year, $34MM) after missing part of the season with injuries.

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