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Blue Jays Expected To Trade From Catching Surplus

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The Blue Jays have an enviable crop of talented catchers and are expected to use one of them in a trade this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

It’s been speculated for quite some time that the Blue Jays will have to move on from a catcher eventually, given their various options. Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno are all MLB-caliber backstops with varying degrees of experience. Since most teams are lucky to even have one good catcher, let alone three, it’s fairly logical to think they might consider dealing one of them to address another part of the roster. Last offseason, Toronto’s catching mix came up often in offseason chatter and it has only gotten more crowded since then.

Despite the numbers of options available, there were good reasons they didn’t pull the trigger on a deal a year ago. At the end of 2021, Gabriel Moreno was considered one of the top prospects in baseball but only had three Triple-A games on his résumé. Alejandro Kirk had an exciting debut in 2020 but was limited by injury to just 60 games in 2021. Danny Jansen, the longest-tenured of the bunch, also missed significant time in 2021, only getting into 70 contests. Given there was some uncertainty with each of their three choices, it made sense to take a wait-and-see approach.

Here in 2022, Moreno added 62 more Triple-A games, hitting .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. He also got into 25 big league contests and produced a .319/.356/.377 line with a 113 wRC+ while looking strong on defense, including throwing out 7 of 17 attempted base stealers. Kirk stayed off the IL and got into 139 games. In that time, he hit .285/.372/.415 for a wRC+ of 129 while also posting 9 Defensive Runs Saved and a 7.6 from the FanGraphs framing metric. Jansen still dealt with injuries and only got into 72 games, though he hit a tremendous 15 home runs in that time and slashed .260/.339/.516 for a wRC+ of 140. His defensive marks were also generally strong, allowing him to post 2.6 fWAR despite playing less than half of the team’s games.

If the Jays felt they had enough catching to consider a trade a year ago, the circumstances have only pushed them further towards that conclusion since then. The only question will be which of the group to move on from. Jansen got a cup of coffee in 2018 but established himself as a regular in 2019 by getting into 107 games. His bat was below average but he provided 12 DRS and earned an 8.1 from the FanGraphs framing metric. His bat has continued evolving in the following seasons, though that has come with durability concerns. Due to the pandemic-shortened season in 2020 and two straight years of injury disruptions, he hasn’t played more than 72 games in a single season since 2019. He also only has two remaining years of club control and is projected for a $3.7MM arbitration salary in 2023 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Kirk and Moreno are each still in their pre-arb years, with the Jays still having four years of club control over Kirk and six over Moreno. That extra cheap control surely makes them more appealing to the Jays in the long term but it would also lead to greater returns in any trade talks. Various teams will likely be considering upgrades behind the plate this winter, including the Astros, Cardinals, Tigers, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Twins, Guardians, Pirates, Red Sox and Rays. Some of those teams will look to free agency, with Willson Contreras the top of the market. However, he will surely require a significant contract as well as draft pick forfeiture, since he will undoubtedly receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Cubs. There will be other options available, such as Christian Vázquez, Gary Sánchez, Tucker Barnhart and more, though those players are all older than the trio on Toronto’s roster and will likely earn higher salaries on the open market.

Regardless of how the Jays ultimately decide to play it, this catching surplus might be their best path towards improving the club this offseason. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk as part of the Offseason Outlook series, the Jays are already slated for a franchise-record payroll, even before making any moves. A few non-tenders could drop that number a bit and ownership could greenlight some extra spending, but it’s possible that the Jays aren’t positioned for huge free agent strikes this winter. If that is indeed the case, a trade centered around one of their backstops could be the ticket to improving the roster for 2023.

Starting pitching will likely be an area of focus for the club, with Ross Stripling departing via free agency and Hyun Jin Ryu set to miss at least part of the season due to Tommy John surgery. They will still have a strong front two in Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman but then a group of guys coming off down years in José Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White. Finding starting pitchers that are both cheap and good is generally quite difficult to do, but the Jays look to be in good position to turn to the trade market instead.

Dodgers Decline Club Option On Jimmy Nelson

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The Dodgers announced that they have declined their 2023 club option on right-hander Jimmy Nelson. They could have retained him at a $1.1MM salary but will instead let him return to the open market. There was no buyout attached to the option.

Nelson spent many years as a starter with the Brewers before being derailed by injuries. He missed the 2018 and 2020 seasons entirely and only threw 22 innings in 2019, putting up a 6.95 ERA in that brief window when he was healthy.

However, he seemed to get things back on track with the Dodgers in 2021. He made 28 appearances that season, throwing 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He walked 11.9% of batters faced but struck out 37.9% of them, well above that year’s 24% average for relievers. Unfortunately, that strong bounceback season was cut short when Nelson required Tommy John and flexor repair surgery in August.

Despite the surgery, the Dodgers re-signed him for the 2022 campaign, knowing he was unlikely to contribute that season. He received a league-minimum $700K salary while rehabbing, with the Dodgers able to trigger the $1.1MM option for 2023. The league minimum salary is jumping to $720K next year, meaning that $1.1MM figure is only $380K above. For a team that’s typically among the biggest spenders in the league, that would be a small risk to take on a pitcher who was so dominant when last healthy. However, the club has opted not to take that chance.

There’s no financial risk here for the Dodgers, since there is no buyout on the option. Their only risk is losing Nelson to a rival team now that he has the ability to pursue offers from all 29 other clubs. Though it’s also possible that he and the club could reconnect on another deal.

Rangers Decline Club Option On Kole Calhoun

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The Rangers announced they have declined their $5.5MM club option on outfielder Kole Calhoun for 2023. There was no buyout attached. Calhoun will now become a free agent.

Calhoun signed with Texas last offseason, inking a $5.2MM guarantee after a down season in Arizona. The veteran outfielder had hit 16 home runs for the Snakes during the shortened 2020 season, but he was limited to five longballs and 51 games by injury in 2021. The Rangers took a shot on a bounceback, hoping to install a quality left-handed power bat into the corner outfield mix.

The 35-year-old’s lone season in Arlington didn’t go as planned. Calhoun appeared in 125 games and stepped to the plate 424 times, but he managed a career-worst .196/.257/.330 line. He punched out in a personal-high 32.1% of his trips to the plate against a modest 6.4% walk rate, and his power output wasn’t close to compensating for the subpar on-base percentage. Declining the option was an easy call for general manager Chris Young and his staff.

Calhoun heads back to the open market as a depth option in the corner outfield, and it’s possible he may have to take a minor league offer with an invitation to Spring Training. The Rangers figure to explore the market for upgrades on the grass, with Adolis García the only player who seems locked into a spot in the outfield at the moment.

AJ Pollock To Decline Player Option

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White Sox outfielder AJ Pollock is declining his $13MM player option, per Buster Olney of ESPN, instead taking the $5MM buyout and returning to free agency.

The decision comes as something of a surprise since Pollock is coming of a noticeable down year in 2022. Going into 2019, he and the Dodgers agreed to a four-year, $60MM contract that came with a $10MM player option for 2023 or a $5MM buyout. That $10MM salary could be increased by $1MM for Pollock hitting 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances in 2022, maxing out at $15MM. Since Pollock got to 527 plate appearances on the year, he added $3MM to his potential total, though it ended up being a moot point since he is taking the buyout.

For the first three years of that deal, Pollock was excellent at the plate, hitting 52 total home runs and producing a batting line of .282/.337/.519. That production was 25% above league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. The Dodgers traded him to the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel going into 2022, which precipitated a downturn at the plate. For the Sox this year, Pollock hit just .245/.292/.389 for a wRC+ of 92, or 8% below league average.

He also seems to have lost a step, which isn’t surprising as he’s about to turn 35. He’s racked up double-digit steals in multiple seasons, including 39 in 2015. However, his last time getting into two-figure territory was 2018 and he only swiped three bags here in 2022. Advanced defensive metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average also considered him to be average or below in the field this year.

If there’s one thing Pollock has going for him is that he still mashes lefties. His career batting line with the platoon advantage is .285/.335/.533, leading to a wRC+ of 129, compared to a 107 against righties. That split was even more pronounced in 2022, with Pollock hitting .286/.316/.619 against southpaws, leading a wRC+ 161 compared to a 69 against northpaws. 11 of his 14 home runs came against lefties despite getting only about a quarter of his plate appearances against them.

Whether that’s enough for Pollock to come out ahead in the end remains to be seen. Joc Pederson was coming off a somewhat similar down year in 2021 when he had to settle for a one-year, $6MM deal with the Giants for 2022. Pederson also has strong platoon splits for his career, but could play fairly regularly against right-handers since he hits from the left side. If any team has interest in Pollock for a platoon role, he would have less value since there are fewer lefties for him to play against.

For the White Sox, this removes one option from an outfield that’s in flux for 2022. Andrew Vaughn has been playing on the grass a lot despite being a natural first baseman. He had a nice season at the plate but was one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league by most measures. The club is reportedly leaning towards letting Jose Abreu depart in free agency, opening things up for Vaughn to return to first base. Pollock’s departure removes another corner option from the calculus. That leaves the oft-injured Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez as their primary remaining outfielders, though they also have Adam Engel, Gavin Sheets and Mark Payton on the roster. Even with Pollock around, it seemed that the Sox were a good candidate to look for outfield upgrades and his exodus should only increase the chances of them looking for additions there.

Brewers Exercise Kolten Wong’s Club Option

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The Milwaukee Brewers are picking up their club option on Kolten Wong, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. They will pay him a $10MM salary in 2023 instead of the $2MM buyout.

While most option decisions have a fairly obvious outcome, Wong’s was one of the few that was actually sort of difficult to predict. Long a defensive stalwart, he had perhaps his greatest offensive season in 2022 but took an odd step back in terms of his glovework. Faced with a net $8MM decision, it seems the Brewers have deemed Wong worthy of another go and have triggered his option for 2023.

The 32-year-old was drafted by the Cardinals and spent the first eight seasons of his career there from 2013 to 2020. He was fairly dependable in that regard, providing solid work on the dirt while hitting near a league-average level. Outside of his 2013 debut, he posted a wRC+ between 85 and 109 in each of his seasons in St. Louis, with 100 being the average mark. He never hit for much power, maxing out at 12 home runs as a single-season high as a Cardinal. However, he never struck out more than 16.4% of the time in that stretch and often proved a threat on the basepaths.

On the defensive side of things, Wong generally received positive reviews from the advanced metrics. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a positive number in each season from 2014 to 2020 except for 2017, with the highest being a 17 in 2019. That was easily the highest among second basemen that season, with Enrique Hernández coming in second at 12. Ultimate Zone Rating considered 2018 to be his standout campaign, giving him a 13.4 that year, nudging out DJ LeMahieu for the league lead at the keystone.

Prior to the 2016 season, he and the Cardinals agreed to a five-year extension that came with a $12.5MM option for 2021 with a $1MM buyout. Somewhat surprisingly, the Cards opted for the buyout and sent Wong to free agency, where he landed a two-year, $18MM guarantee from the Brewers with the option for 2023. Since coming to Milwaukee, Wong has had two consecutive above-average seasons at the plate, putting together a cumulative batting line of .262/.337/.439 for a wRC+ of 113. He’s found a little extra power, hitting 14 homers in 2021 and 15 in 2022 after never getting above 12 in previous seasons. He’s also continued to have his speed, swiping 29 bases over the past two years, including 17 in 2022.

As mentioned earlier, Wong’s typically strong defense took a turn for the worse in 2022. In terms of traditional stats, his 17 errors tied a career high from back in 2015. The advanced metrics weren’t keen either, with Wong pegged at a -1 DRS, -4.7 UZR and -9 Outs Above Average. “Defensively, it just wasn’t even my year,” Wong told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last month, before acknowledging that the club’s large arbitration class and impending arrival of prospect Brice Turang might lead to the Brewers choosing the buyout. “I’ve been a free agent one time already and it’s not the most enjoyable thing,” Wong added. “If I got to go through it again, it is what it is. It will be interesting to see where I’d end up landing. Milwaukee was a choice that I kind of had in mind going into free agency as a high pick for me. This next one, I just kind of want to keep an open mind and see how it goes.”

It seems Wong won’t have to worry about free agency for now, as the Brewers have decided he’s worth the $8MM investment. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel spoke to Wong, who said the he is “stoked” about the decision, before going on to detail that his legs weren’t 100% healthy in 2022, which contributed to his defensive shortcomings (Twitter links).

Dodgers To Decline Club Option On Hanser Alberto

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The Dodgers are going to decline their club option on utility player Hanser Alberto, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. They will pay him a $250K buyout instead of a $2MM salary, with Alberto becoming a free agent.

Alberto, 30, has bounced around the league in his career, spending time with the Rangers, Orioles and Royals before signing with the Dodgers for 2022. He’s never been a huge threat at the plate, with his 12 home runs in the “juiced ball” season of 2019 marking a career high. However, he doesn’t strike out much, with a career rate of 12.2%, well below this year’s 22.4% league average. He also adds some defensive versatility, having spent some time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners.

The Dodgers have long been big fans of versatility and signed Alberto for a $1.6MM guarantee for 2022, which came in the form of a $1.35MM base and $250K buyout on the 2023 option. If Alberto had taken a step forward, he could have been a bargain at that price, but he largely produced more of the same. He hit .244/.258/.365 in Los Angeles for a wRC+ of 73, with his most notable contribution to the club arguably being that he stepped into a role as the designated mop-up pitcher. He eventually logged 11 innings in various blowout games, putting up a tidy 4.09 ERA in that time. He’ll now return to the open market in search of his next gig.

Diamondbacks Decline Ian Kennedy’s Mutual Option

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The Diamondbacks have declined their end of a mutual option for reliever Ian Kennedy’s 2023 services, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-Backs will pay him the $250K buyout instead of a $4MM salary.

There wasn’t much intrigue with this decision. Signed to a one-year, $4.75MM guarantee last offseason, Kennedy had a rough go in his second stint in the desert. Manager Torey Lovullo called the right-hander out of his bullpen on 57 occasions, but he only mustered a 5.36 ERA through 50 1/3 innings. Kennedy posted a below-average 19% strikeout rate and was extremely fly ball prone, contributing to his allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings.

Now headed into his age-38 season, Kennedy could be looking at minor league offers this winter. He’s had some prior success both as a starter and as a full-time reliever late in his career, including a 3.20 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies in 2021. However, on the heels of a uniformly disappointing campaign, the 16-year MLB veteran may need to work his way back to the highest level.

Arizona figures to dip into the free agent and/or trade markets for bullpen help this offseason. Protecting leads late in games has been a problem for the Snakes for a while, and general manager Mike Hazen has already spoken of a desire to some add some power arms to the unit.

Dodgers Claim Luke Williams From Marlins

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The Dodgers announced that they have claimed Luke Williams off waivers from the Marlins. Los Angeles’ 40-man roster count now sits at 33.

Williams has bounced around the league over the past eight months. A former third-round pick of the Phillies, he debuted with Philadelphia last year. Williams spent the offseason on the Philly roster but was designated for assignment during Spring Training. He was dealt to the Giants just before Opening Day, but San Francisco took him off the 40-man roster a few months later. The Marlins acquired him in May, and he played out the year in Miami.

The 26-year-old tallied 136 MLB plate appearances between San Francisco and Miami, hitting .236/.287/.315 with a lone home run. He struck out at a lofty 32.4% clip and didn’t draw many walks, but he does offer a fair bit of defensive flexibility. Williams started games at second and third base and in left field this year, and the Phils gave him looks at shortstop and in center field last year.

Williams still has two minor league option years remaining, so the Dodgers can shuttle him between L.A. and Triple-A Oklahoma City for the foreseeable future. That’s assuming he holds his spot on the 40-man roster all winter, although it’s possible Los Angeles tries to run him through waivers at some point in the next few months as they make further additions.

Marlins Decline Mutual Option On Joey Wendle; Outright Three Others

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The Marlins have declined their mutual option on infielder Joey Wendle, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. However, Wendle is not a free agent, as he can still be retained by the club via arbitration. Additionally, the club has outrighted three pitchers: Cody Poteet, Jordan Holloway and Bryan Hoeing.

Wendle was acquired from the Rays in a November 2021 trade, having between four and five years of MLB service time at that point, meaning he was set for two more passes at the arbitration system. He and the club avoided arbitration in April of 2022 by agreeing to a $4.55MM salary for 2022 plus a $6.3MM mutual option for 2023 with a $75K buyout. The Marlins have opted for the buyout but can still control Wendle for 2023 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $5.4MM.

Wendle’s bat took a step back after the trade, most notably in the power department. He hit 11 homers with the Rays in 2021 while hitting .265/.319/.422 for a wRC+ of 105. After moving to Miami, he hit just three long balls and produced a batting line of .259/.297/.360 and a wRC+ of 87. Despite that downturn at the plate, Wendle still received quality marks for his defense and stole 12 bases, leading to him producing 1.2 fWAR on the season even with that tepid offense.

If the MLBTR projections are correct, that would mean the Marlins are making a smart decision in turning down the option. They can still keep Wendle around as a valuable utility player that can jump around the diamond, though his salary will be around $1MM less than if they just triggered the option.

As for Poteet, it was announced in August that he would undergo Tommy John surgery, meaning he’ll likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. He spent the last few months of the season on the 60-day injured list but there’s no IL between the World Series and Spring Training. It seems the Marlins weren’t willing to commit a roster spot to Poteet throughout the winter, leading to this outright. Since he has seven years of minor league experience, he’s eligible to reject the assignment and elect free agency.

It’s a similar situation for Holloway, who landed on the IL in July due to an elbow impingement and finished the season there. He needed to be reinstated this week but got outrighted instead. Like Poteet, his minor league experience gives him the right to elect free agency.

As for Hoeing, he was first selected to the roster in August and made his MLB debut this year. He put up a 12.08 ERA in a small sample of 12 2/3 MLB innings, but was much better in the minors. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A this year, he had a 4.06 ERA while getting strong amounts of ground balls at each level. Since he lacks the seven years of experience in the minors, three years of MLB service time and has never previously been outrighted in his career, he should stick with the Marlins as depth but without occupying a roster spot.

Reds Decline Mike Minor’s Mutual Option

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The Reds announced they have declined their end of a  mutual option on left-hander Mike Minor, making him a free agent. He’ll receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $13MM salary for next year.

Prior to the 2021 season, Minor signed with the Royals on a two-year contract with a club option for 2023. In the event Minor was traded, that club option would become a mutual option, which indeed came to pass when the Royals flipped him to the Reds for Amir Garrett going into 2022.

In the first year of that deal, Minor made 28 starts for the Royals and tossed 158 2/3 innings. His 5.05 ERA certainly didn’t elicit much excitement, though there were reasons to think he could have deserved better. His 22.3% strikeout rate was just a shade under league average among starting pitchers that year, though his 6.1% walk rate was almost two ticks below the 7.8% par. His 66.4% strand rate was also much worse than the 72.5% median, leading advanced metrics to come in better than his ERA, such as a 4.38 xERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.32 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA.

Going into 2022, the Reds did some roster clearing, mostly for financial reasons. Wade Miley was put on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, while Sonny Gray was traded to the Twins. They held onto Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, but it was still expected that those guys would likely be moved later, which did indeed come to pass at the trade deadline. Taking all that into consideration, they needed a veteran to maintain a steady presence in the rotation and acquired Minor to be that guy.

There was some logic to this, as Minor had made at least 28 starts in the previous three full seasons as well as 11 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, that durability didn’t carry over into 2022, with Minor making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues. He did end up taking the ball 19 times in 2022, though he was not able to be very effective when he did. He posted a 6.06 ERA on the year, with a diminished strikeout rate of 16.7%. Based on that disappointing season, it’s no surprise that the Reds have turned down their end of the bargain. Minor turns 35 years old in December and has also mulled retirement.

Despite losing Minor and the aforementioned traded pitchers, the rotation is one of the more interesting parts of the roster for the rebuilding Reds. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all made their debuts in 2022 and each showed varying levels of promise. That could give the club a strong nucleus of starters to build around as they look to move towards their next competitive window.

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