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Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Correa, Lux, Shortstop

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The Dodgers have not yet determined whether they’ll make a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last night at the GM Meetings (Twitter thread via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Friedman emphasized that bringing Kershaw back “is a real priority” for the team, adding that “things just feel more right in the world when Kershaw is wearing a Dodgers uniform.” The team did not extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw last year, due largely out of respect for the veteran lefty, whom they didn’t want to force into a rushed decision.

Similar sentiments are at play in 2022, it seems, as Friedman again spoke Kershaw taking the time to talk with his wife to decide what’s best for their future. Common consensus last winter was that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers (as he eventually did) or sign with the Rangers, who play their home games a short drive from Kershaw’s Texas home, which would thus afford him more time with his wife and four young children.

It’s a familiar situation for the Dodgers, and if last year’s process is any indication, it could take some time for things to play out. A Kershaw return would be a boon for a rotation that’ll be missing Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) for all of the 2023 season and could see Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart as free agents. At present, the only locks for the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation are Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

To that end, it’s not a surprise that Friedman described starting pitching as a “very” high priority for the Dodgers this winter (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Friedman also touched on the team’s shortstop situation, noting that even if Trea Turner signs elsewhere, the team feels confident in Gavin Lux’s ability to take over the shortstop role on an everyday basis. Of course, it’s hardly a surprise to see any baseball operations leader giving a vote of confidence to an in-house option, and such comments shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a steadfast declaration that the Dodgers would be “out” on the likes of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson if Turner ultimately signs elsewhere after rejecting his qualifying offer.

It’s worth noting, to at least some extent, that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that Dodgers officials harbor some concern as to how Correa in particular would be perceived by fans. It’s been five years since the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but fans have a long memory and still hold plenty of resentment for how that season played out. There are greater public relations implications with a Correa/Dodgers fit than with Correa and another club.

Adding my own two cents to the matter, it’d be particularly problematic if both Correa and Turner wind up with comparable price tags — as many expect — and Correa gets out to a poor start. Even setting performances aside, there’d be plenty of fan backlash at the notion of letting Turner, currently popular and productive in Los Angeles, leave in favor of Correa if the two indeed have comparable price tags. Plus, as Rosenthal alludes to, the Dodgers tend to shy away from such lengthy contractual commitments. Mookie Betts is a notable exception, but Freddie Freeman is the only other contract of at least six years given out by the Dodgers under Friedman; Correa and Turner both figure to command lengthier pacts.

As for Lux, the notion of him stepping up as the everyday shortstop isn’t necessarily far-fetched. The 24-year-old (25 in a few weeks) ranked as one of the game’s five best prospects heading into the 2020 season and, after pedestrian small-sample results in 2019-20, has elevated his level of play. Lux’s .242/.328/.364 slash in 2021 was about 10% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+, but he upped his production with a .276/.346/.399 output in 2022 (113 wRC+).

Lux was having a monster summer, hitting .308/.380/.462 over a span of more than 300 plate appearances, when he began experiencing back pain and received a cortisone shot. He missed about two weeks’ worth of games in September and, upon returning, hit just .154/.170/.192 in his final 54 plate appearances, which helped to drag down his season-long numbers. Still, there’s good reason to believe that a full, healthy season of Lux in 2023 could be a highly valuable player for the Dodgers at shortstop.

At this stage of the offseason, teams haven’t even yet been granted permission to speak with free agents from other clubs, so there’s no way to properly gauge just what trajectory the team might take. Nonetheless, it’s of some note to hear Friedman prioritize Kershaw (and starting pitching in general) and give a vote of confidence to Lux as a shortstop option. The Dodgers will surely be attached to all of the marquee shortstops to an extent this winter, but that’s as much a reflection on their deep pockets and “open to anything’ mentality as it is on their perceived need at that specific position.

Astros’ Will Smith, Trey Mancini Become Free Agents

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Left-hander Will Smith and first baseman Trey Mancini were both included on the MLBPA’s latest update of players reaching free agency, indicating that the options on their contracts with the Astros weren’t picked up. In Smith’s case, that means the team declined a $13MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout. Mancini, meanwhile, had a $10MM mutual option with a $250K buyout. It’s not clear yet whether Mancini or the team declined their end of that arrangement, but the result is the same: Mancini will become a free agent for the first time in his career.

Smith, acquired in a deadline swap that sent veteran righty Jake Odorizzi to the Braves, was a buy-low pickup for the ’Stros that paid dividends down the stretch. Smith, 33, carried a 4.38 ERA, career-worst 12.3% walk rate and a grisly 1.70 HR/9 at the time of the trade but immediately righted the ship in Houston. In 22 innings as an Astro, Smith logged a 3.27 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a vastly improved 4.4% walk rate.

While Smith didn’t pitch for Houston in the postseason, the benefit to the trade isn’t limited to the regular season. By flipping Odorizzi to the Braves, the Astros dodged a potentially pricey player option. Odorizzi’s workload boosted the value of his 2023 player option to $12.5MM, although a $6.25MM buyout might be hefty enough that he’ll still opt to return to free agency. Regardless, Houston isn’t on the hook for that potential outcome, which is a plus for them given that they already possess at least five big league starters for the 2023 season — Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy — and likely hope to retain Justin Verlander.

As for Mancini, his stint with the ’Stros will be short-lived and go down as something of a disappointment. The longtime Orioles slugger has been one of the game’s feel-good stories over the past two seasons, in the wake of his inspirational return from a Stage 3 colon cancer diagnosis in 2020. He was a productive hitter in his season and a half with Baltimore following that comeback, slashing .260/.334/.421 with 31 home runs, 49 doubles and a pair of triples in 1017 plate appearances.

Mancini was in something of a slump at the time of the trade to Houston, however, and he never managed to hit his way out of that lull. Inconsistent playing time may have played a role, but Mancini’s .176/.258/.364 batting line as an Astro is clearly sub-par. He also fanned at a 26.3% clip in Houston — considerably higher than the roughly 22% clip he’d logged in the two-plus prior seasons. That said, Mancini did mash eight home runs in 186 plate appearances, so he at least provided the ’Stros with some occasional thump, even if the overall results were miles from his career .265/.330/.457 output.

The Astros are still waiting on what will be far and away their most important option decision —  that of Verlander. The 2023 Cy Young favorite has a $25MM player option for the 2023 season that he’s widely expected to decline, though it certainly remains possible that  the two parties explore a reunion at what would figure to be much heavier terms.

Scott Harris Discusses Tigers’ Offseason Priorities

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Scott Harris enters his first year in charge of baseball operations in Detroit. Hired as president of baseball ops shortly before the end of the season, he and his staff set to work on fortifying a roster coming off a 66-96 showing.

Harris spoke with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening and addressed a wide range of topics (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com and Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). In broad terms, the executive expressed a general openness to any way of improving the roster, including the possibility of trading prospects for immediate big league talent. Yet Harris also highlighted a few specific areas the front office would like to address. On the position player side, he suggested the club could use a left-handed hitting infielder and a right-handed hitting outfielder. He also expressed an unsurprising desire for pitching help.

As far as the lineup goes, Detroit’s present infield indeed skews right-handed. Spencer Torkelson, Jonathan Schoop and Javier Báez all hit from that side of the dish, as do Miguel Cabrera and rookie Ryan Kreidler. Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro are switch-hitters, but each could plausibly be non-tendered next week. That’s also true of lefty-swinging Harold Castro. Harris didn’t address the status of either Castro, but he did note the team had still yet to decide how to proceed with Candelario (via Woodbery). After two straight well above-average showings in 2020-21, the third baseman stumbled to a .217/.272/.361 line through 467 plate appearances this year. With a projected salary around $7MM for his final season of arbitration eligibility, he could well be let go after that down year.

Schoop and Báez are the in-house favorites for middle infield work, with both under contract for next season. Schoop had a terrible offensive season but played Gold Glove caliber defense at second base; he triggered a $7.5MM player option last week. Báez still has five years remaining on the $140MM free agent deal he inked last winter. He only managed a .238/.278/.393 line with mediocre defensive marks during his first season in Detroit, but there’s never been much question the two-time All-Star would get another crack as the everyday shortstop in 2023. Harris confirmed as much this evening, adding that he considered the dip in Báez’s typically strong defense an anomaly (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News).

Perhaps the most interesting infield decision for Detroit comes at first base. Torkelson, a former first overall pick and top prospect, didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level. He managed just a .203/.285/.319 line through his first 404 MLB plate appearances, a supremely disappointing showing for a player who’d mashed at every stop before reaching the majors. At age 23, Torkelson still has plenty of time to figure things out at the highest level, but it remains to be seen if the Tigers will give him the Opening Day job again in 2023. Harris implied the organization still considers Torkelson the first baseman of the future but seemed to leave open the possibility of him starting the year back at Triple-A Toledo, saying “at (first base) and every other position, we’re going to look for ways to get better.”

Free agency doesn’t offer a whole lot in the way of left-handed hitting second or third base options. Adam Frazier could be a bounceback target after a down year in Seattle, while Jace Peterson looks to have a shot at a two-year deal after a solid couple seasons in Milwaukee. That could point to the trade market or waiver wire being the clearer path for additions, but the desire for a right-handed outfielder is easier to fill via free agency. Players like Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, Chad Pinder and AJ Pollock are available corner players. None is a great fit for center field, but the Tigers seem likely to let Riley Greene get most of the work up the middle regardless.

While Harris didn’t specify pitching targets, it seems likely the front office will prioritize rotation additions. Casey Mize will miss most or all of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery, and it looks as if Tarik Skubal may not be ready for Opening Day after undergoing flexor surgery in August. Detroit could be without arguably their two best arms, although they did provide a favorable update on their other top young pitcher, Matt Manning. After a forearm strain ended Manning’s season a few days early, he was sent for a second opinion last month. That sounded ominous, but the Tigers maintained confidence he wouldn’t need to go under the knife and things appear to be progressing smoothly. In an update this evening, Detroit called Manning “symptom-free” and suggested he was in line for a normal offseason (via Stavenhagen).

That’s obviously welcome news that should position him to join Eduardo Rodríguez and Spencer Turnbull in the season-opening rotation. There’s still enough uncertainty at the back end the Tigers figure to dip into the lower tiers of free agency and/or turn to trades to add some stable innings behind that trio.

Latest On Market For Willson Contreras

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Free agency commences in a few days, and Willson Contreras will be the unquestioned top backstop available. The career-long Cub is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer from Chicago while his representatives at Octagon set out in search of a strong multi-year pact.

While clubs can’t formally begin to discuss contract terms with other teams’ free agents until Thursday, they’ve no doubt identified players of interest with the offseason underway. A few teams outside of Chicago have already loosely emerged in the Contreras market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Tigers have interest in the three-time All-Star, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears the Astros are contemplating a free agent pursuit.

It’s easy to see the link in both cases. Detroit is led by first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who worked in the Cubs front office through the end of the 2019 season. Harris’ familiarity with Contreras doesn’t on its own give Detroit much of a leg up in free agency, but there’s a clear opportunity for them to pursue catching help. Detroit sees Tucker Barnhart hit free agency, and he looks unlikely to return after a rough year. Eric Haase has decent power and could be an immediate catching option after hitting .254/.305/.443 in 110 games, but he’s never rated highly defensively and may be a better fit for increased work in left field and/or at designated hitter.

Harris declined comment on Contreras specifically when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening (via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). However, he broadly sounded open to the idea of adding catching help from outside the organization. Harris noted the presence of some internal prospect talent — presumably primarily in reference to former second-round pick Dillon Dingler and to 2021 11th-rounder Josh Crouch — but downplayed the likelihood of anyone from the system seizing that job for 2023. Neither Dingler nor Crouch needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, and neither has yet reached Triple-A. Whether Detroit should be willing to surrender a draft choice for a qualified free agent on the heels of a 66-win season is fair to ask, but it seems likely the Tigers will address catcher in some form over the coming months.

The Astros’ interest in Contreras dates back at least to this past summer. The front office arranged a deal that would’ve sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras at the deadline, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed it. Houston pivoted to land Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox instead, but he’s now the #2 backstop behind Contreras in free agency. A Vázquez reunion seems unlikely after he saw sporadic playing time behind Martín Maldonado down the stretch. Maldonado’s presence could be a roadblock to a Contreras pursuit as well, given the World Series champion’s longstanding affinity for the defensive specialist, but Contreras could be such a marked offensive upgrade the team is willing to consider scaling back Maldonado’s playing time to add an impact bat.

Certainly, interest in Contreras will extend far beyond two teams. High-ranking executives with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Red Sox have already gone on record about an openness to adding behind the plate. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets the Cardinals consider catcher to be their #1 priority, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak open to both free agent and trade possibilities. The Cardinals have long prioritized elite defense behind the dish with Yadier Molina, perhaps making them an odd fit for a bat-first player like Contreras, but Woo relays that St. Louis isn’t solely looking for defensive stalwarts but is prioritizing all-around impact from the position.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, may have more trepidation about Contreras’ mixed reputation as a game-caller. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Boston is unlikely to make a serious run at the 30-year-old backstop as they place an emphasis on managing a pitching staff. Concerns about Contreras’ game-calling acumen were mentioned at the deadline as well, perhaps playing a role in the Cubs not finding an offer that inspired them to part ways with him despite being well out of playoff contention. Speier notes the Red Sox have had longstanding interest in A’s backstop Sean Murphy — who’ll be a frequent trade target again this winter — and reports they’ve previously checked in on the Padres’ Austin Nola.

Drew Smyly Declines Mutual Option With Cubs

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Drew Smyly declined his end of a $10MM mutual option in his contract with the Cubs, as Jordan Bastian of MLB.com was among those to relay (on Twitter). He’ll collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency.

It’s virtually a formality that every mutual option will be declined by one side, and Smyly’s decision doesn’t register as much of a surprise. He’s likely to look for a multi-year deal this winter. The veteran southpaw is coming off a decent season for Chicago, pitching to a 3.47 ERA through 106 1/3 innings over 22 starts. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a hair below average, but he only walked 5.8% of opposing hitters and had a solid 12.4% swinging strike rate.

Smyly and the Cubs reportedly kicked around extension talks last month. Obviously, nothing has come to fruition, but Bastian notes the Cubs are still interested in keeping the 33-year-old around. They’ll retain exclusive negotiating rights through Thursday evening, but it looks likely the Frontline client will soon be in contact with other clubs with no extension in place.

Chicago doesn’t have a ton of certainty behind Marcus Stroman in their season-opening rotation. Kyle Hendricks figures to assume a spot if healthy; he’s yet to begin a throwing program after his 2022 season was cut short by a capsule tear in his throwing shoulder, although the Cubs aren’t concerned about his availability for Spring Training. Justin Steele looks like a rotation lock, but Chicago’s likely to seek upgrades over Adrian Sampson and Keegan Thompson at the back end. Even if they manage to retain Smyly, they figure to explore a deep starting pitching free agent class.

Mariners To Select Prelander Berroa

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The Mariners are planning to select right-hander Prelander Berroa onto their 40-man roster, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). The 22-year-old would otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, and Seattle will keep him away from other clubs by adding him to the 40-man.

Seattle acquired Berroa in May, adding him from the Giants in a deal that sent utilityman Donovan Walton to San Francisco. It was the second trade of Berroa’s young career, as he’d previously gone from the Twins to the Giants in a 2019 deadline deal. A native of the Dominican Republic, Berroa draws praise from evaluators for his fastball-slider combination but has some questions about his control.

That was mostly borne out in his 2022 numbers. Berroa split his time between High-A and Double-A, starting all 26 of his appearances. He posted a cumulative 2.86 ERA through 100 2/3 innings, striking out an incredible 36.5% of batters faced. He also walked an elevated 12.6% of opponents, highlighting that his strike-throwing remains a work in progress. Nevertheless, the M’s feel there’s a chance another club would’ve plugged Berroa directly onto the MLB roster next year given the quality of his stuff.

Diamondbacks Claim Cole Sulser From Marlins

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve claimed reliever Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins. Arizona’s 40-man roster tally jumps to 37, while Miami’s drops to 40.

Sulser spent one season in South Florida. The Fish acquired the right-hander alongside hard-throwing Tanner Scott in a package deal with the Orioles going into the 2022 season. Sulser was coming off an excellent 2.70 ERA over 63 1/3 innings in Baltimore, looking like a late-blooming high-leverage bullpen piece. He didn’t replicate that success during his year in Miami, however, scuffling to a 5.29 ERA over 34 frames.

The 32-year-old surrendered six home runs over that stretch, and his strikeout rate dipped from 28.4% with Baltimore to 25.5% this past season. Sulser’s average fastball speed also dropped from 93.3 MPH to 91.9 MPH, and he lost a couple months midseason with a lat strain.

That down year explains why the Marlins were willing to part with Sulser not long after acquiring him, but it’s easy enough to see the appeal for the Diamondbacks in giving him a shot. Even with his diminished velocity, he got swinging strikes on an above-average 13.3% of his pitches this year. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen has spoken about prioritizing swing-and-miss in adding to a bullpen that ranked last in the big leagues with a 19.7% strikeout rate.

Sulser has between three and four years of major league service, so he’ll be eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a modest $1MM salary if tendered a contract, and he could be a multi-year bullpen piece for the Snakes if he can right the ship.

Orioles Outright Cam Gallagher

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The Orioles announced that catcher Cam Gallagher has gone unclaimed on outright waivers. He’s elected minor league free agency in lieu of an assignment to Triple-A Norfolk, as is his right as a player with more than three years of big league service. Baltimore also confirmed that backstop Anthony Bemboom has cleared waivers but accepted an assignment to Norfolk. The O’s hadn’t previously announced Gallagher had been taken off the 40-man roster, which now sits at 33.

Baltimore claimed Gallagher off waivers from the Padres during the final month of the regular season. He barely played for the organization, making just five appearances with Norfolk. Gallagher had also not suited up in the majors for the Friars, spending his two-month tenure there in Triple-A after San Diego added him from the Royals at the trade deadline. Gallagher had a tough year in Triple-A, mustering a .200/.277/.343 line in 119 plate appearances between the three teams.

Before this August, Gallagher had spent his entire career in Kansas City. He’s been the backup to Salvador Perez for the past few years, appearing in parts of six big league seasons but never tallying more than 48 games in an individual season. He has a cumulative .240/.302/.355 line over 469 career plate appearances at the big league level.

The 29-year-old (30 in December) had been eligible for arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Gallagher for just a $1MM salary, but the O’s evidently determined they weren’t prepared to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter. He now heads to the open market for the first time, where he’ll add a depth option for teams seeking catching help.

Dodgers To Decline Danny Duffy’s Club Option

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The Dodgers are declining their $7MM club option on left-hander Danny Duffy, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com (Twitter link). There’s no buyout, and the veteran hurler heads back to the open market.

There wasn’t much suspense with this decision, as Duffy hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in a year and a half. The longtime Royal was off to a strong start to the 2021 campaign, pitching to a 2.51 ERA through 61 innings. He suffered a flexor strain and was on the injured list as the trade deadline rolled around, but L.A. nevertheless acquired him from the Royals. He suffered a setback and didn’t pitch that year, and he underwent surgery over the offseason.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a $3MM guarantee over the winter, hoping he’d contribute as a reliever for the stretch run and into the postseason. Unfortunately, he suffered another setback while attempting to rehab in the late summer and didn’t get back to the majors. Duffy’s year and a half in the organization didn’t result in him taking the mound in Dodger blue.

Duffy has a career 3.95 ERA, but he may have to conduct a showcase for teams this winter to demonstrate his health. He turns 34 years old in December.

Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger

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The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.

Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.

He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.

That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.

The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.

He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.

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