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José Abreu: No Talks With White Sox About New Contract

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White Sox first baseman José Abreu is on the verge of reaching free agency again, heading back to the open market once the offseason begins in November. He spoke to the media today and answered questions about his future, including one about whether he plans on returning to the field in 2023. “Of course, I love baseball,” Abreu said, as relayed by James Fegan of The Athletic. Abreu goes on to say that talks with the Chicago front office about a new contract have not taken place and that he will take some time to think about his next steps.

The fact that Abreu doesn’t want to rush this decision is fairly sensible, given that his previous foray into free agency was very brief. He was given a $17.8MM qualifying offer by the White Sox at the conclusion of the 2019 season and eventually accepted. One week later, he and the club agreed to a three-year, $50MM deal which replaced that QO. Instead, Abreu received a $5MM signing bonus, $11MM salary in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022.

That deal could hardly have gone much better for the club, with Abreu continuing to be an excellent hitter in that time. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit 19 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .317/.370/.617. That production was 64% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Abreu earned American League MVP honors while helping the club make the postseason for the first time since 2008.

He couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace over an entire season, but still had a great campaign in 2021. He launched another 30 long balls and slashed .261/.351/.481, wRC+ of 125. He sacrificed some power for average here in 2022 but still with great results overall. He’s gone over the fence 15 times so far while hitting .304/.378/.445 for a wRC+ of 137.

Given his continued production and strong reputation off the field as a clubhouse leader, it would be fairly logical for the Sox to want him back. However, there might also be a couple of factors working against that course of action. For one thing, there’s the team’s budget. The White Sox set a franchise record by running out an Opening Day payroll of $129MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but then vaulted way past that here in 2022 by getting to $193MM.

There’s already about $121MM committed to next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, but with some key expenses not yet factored in. Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM option is a lock to be exercised while Lucas Giolito will get a raise via arbitration. He made $7.45MM this year and will likely get above eight figures for 2023. Those two contracts will get the club into the $145MM range while still not including arbitration salaries for Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and others. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level this year, they could certainly fit in a contract for Abreu, though that would leave them with fewer resources to address other areas of need such as the pitching staff. Yesterday, general manager Rick Hahn told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that the club was likely to be more active in the trade market than in free agency, seemingly a reflection of the club’s payroll situation.

There’s also the fact that the Sox have a potential in-house replacement for Abreu already on the roster in the form of Andrew Vaughn. He is in just his second season in the majors and has hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115. That’s a bit below what Abreu has done in recent years, though Vaughn is still just 24 years old and could potentially still have room to grow.

There’s a big problem with Vaughn’s current role on the team, however, which is his glove. A first baseman in college and in the minors, Vaughn moved to the outfield due to Abreu already being entrenched as the team’s everyday option at first. The move has not suited Vaughn at all, as he’s produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating is also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved is among the bottom five.

Due to that horrid work in the field, Vaughn is giving back all of his offensive production and then some. Despite being an above-average hitter, he’s actually been a sub-replacement level player this year, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. They say that Vaughn’s fWAR for the season is -0.4, while Baseball Reference has him at an even zero. Perhaps it’s worth it for the Sox to consider letting Abreu walk and moving Vaughn back to his natural position, as that would both allow Vaughn to become a more productive member of the team and also free up resources to address other areas of the roster.

Of course, the club could also consider re-signing Abreu and then trading Vaughn, though that path is a little less smooth.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at this year’s crop of free agent first basemen, with Abreu coming in at the top of the class alongside Josh Bell. Although Abreu is turning 36 in January, his continued success at the plate will surely lead to multi-year deals with a significant salary. Supposing Chicago does re-sign Abreu, they would then have to find a trade partner willing to give up cheap pitching for a first baseman, which may not be easy.

However it plays out, keeping the same arrangement in 2023 seems like something the Sox should avoid. Despite a roster loaded with talent, the club disappointed this year by slumping to an 80-80 record so far and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Defense was likely a big factor, as the team-wide DRS of -32 is one of the five worst in the league, their -16 OAA one of the ten worst and their -41.1 UZR dead last.

Rockies, José Ureña Interested In Reunion

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Right-hander José Ureña has only been in the Rockies’ organization for a few months, but the relationship has evidently gone well so far. Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette relays that both he and the club are interested in continuing their arrangement in 2023.

“I said it first thing: I am so thankful for this organization, what they did for me,” Ureña said, as relayed by Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I’d be open. I like to play here.” Manager Bud Black seems as impressed by Ureña as the righty is with the team. “The way he’s thrown, we’re going to have a look at it when he goes into free agency,” Black says.

Ureña, 31, began the year in the Brewers’ bullpen, logging 7 2/3 innings over four appearances before getting designated for assignment in early May. After electing free agency, he signed a minor league deal with the Rockies and was eventually selected to the big league club in early July.

Since that time, Ureña has made 17 starts for the Rox with a 5.14 ERA. That’s obviously not a super impressive number, but it’s worth remembering the hitter-friendly reputation of Coors Field. Advanced metrics that take park factors into account have a slightly more favorable view of his work, with Ureña registering a 4.82 SIERA, 4.53 FIP and 4.45 xFIP since coming to Colorado. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy and this year is no exception, striking out 15.2% of batters faced, just below his career mark. His 50.3% ground ball rate is above-average, though, something he has long been able to accomplish. He’s also done a decent enough job at avoiding getting lit up this year, as he’s in the 59th percentile in terms of barrel rate and 56th percentile in terms of average exit velocity.

Due to the offensive orientation of their home park, the Rockies often face challenges convincing pitchers to come to the mountains. That makes it somewhat sensible for them to be interested in retaining any pitcher who finds any kind of success and is willing to take their money. However, it’s worth noting that we are talking about a mere 17 starts here and the numbers can change quickly. Back in July, it was reported that the club was interested in extending Chad Kuhl, who had a 4.78 ERA at the time. But he’s had very poor results since then, seeing his ERA climb up to 5.72 for the season.

Regardless, it’s possible that the club won’t be looking to throw huge money around this offseason, either on the rotation or elsewhere. They began this year with an Opening Day payroll of $131MM and have never been above $146MM in that department, with numbers from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. For next year, they’ve already got about $135MM on the books, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That figure doesn’t include the salaries of their arbitration-eligible players, who will surely add to that total. Unless the club wants to suddenly blow past their previous spending levels, they won’t have a ton to work with.

For next year’s starting rotation, with Kuhl and Urena both heading into free agency, two spots should be taken up by Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland. A third spot would go Antonio Senzatela if he were healthy, but he tore his ACL in August and might not be ready to go for Spring Training. Ryan Feltner has made 18 starts this year and could be in the mix for 2023, though he has a 6.01 ERA and still has options. There aren’t really any clear answers beyond that, with most of the club’s top pitching prospects currently in the lower levels of their farm system. Given all that uncertainty and the potential lack of available funds, it seems like they might be going into the offseason with their sights set on pitchers like Ureña.

Colin Poche Done For The Year Due To Oblique Strain

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Rays left-hander Colin Poche suffered an oblique strain tonight and is done for the year, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Poche, 28, has been a useful hurler for the Rays this year, with tonight being his 65th appearance of the season. It wasn’t a great outing, as he allowed four earned runs in just a third of an inning. But coming into the game, he had a 3.39 ERA in 58 1/3 frames for the season, along with a 26.3% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 32.5% ground ball rate.

With Poche out, the Rays will lose another southpaw from their bullpen mix just as they are about to begin a Wild Card series against the Guardians, who have a significant number of guys who hit from the left side of the plate. Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez are all lefties while José Ramírez is a switch-hitter.

Jalen Beeks, another lefty, also recently landed on the injured list. Without Poche and Beeks, Tampa will be left with Brooks Raley and Garrett Cleavinger as the primary southpaws in their relief corps. However, since Poche is done for the year, the club could put him on the 60-day injured list and select another reliever to the roster. Poche has crossed three years of MLB service time this year and will therefore be eligible for arbitration in the offseason.

Mariners Place Sam Haggerty On IL With Groin Strain

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, with infielder Abraham Toro being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma. He will take the spot of infielder/outfielder Sam Haggerty, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left groin strain. Additionally, left-hander Justus Sheffield was appointed the club’s “29th man” for today’s doubleheader.

Haggerty, 28, left last night’s game in the ninth inning, requiring assistance to leave the playing field due to his injury. Though the Mariners have qualified for the Wild Card round, today’s IL placement will officially prevent Haggerty from being with the team until the ALDS at the earliest. Even if the club is able to push deep into October, it might not matter much in this case, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times relays that Haggerty is likely done for the year.

Despite the sour ending, it’s been a nice campaign for Haggerty, who was outrighted off of Seattle’s roster at the end of last year. At that time, he had 59 career MLB games under his belt but had hit just .207/.265/.321, wRC+ of 66. He played well in the minors to begin this year and got himself back onto the big league club by mid-May. He eventually got into 83 games at the major league level and stepped to the plate 201 times. He launched the ball over the fence on five occasions and stole 13 bases while producing a batting line of .256/.335/.403 for a wRC+ of 114.

Defensively, he made very brief appearances at second and third base but spent most of his time in the outfield. His work on the grass has been reviewed favorably by advanced metrics, with Haggerty earning five Outs Above Average out there this year, along with eight Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.2 mark from Ultimate Zone Rating. Due to his strong work in all facets of the game, he produced 1.5 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs, despite playing a limited role.

Going forward, Haggerty will still be shy of qualifying for arbitration this winter and will have four years of club control remaining, meaning Seattle can keep him around at very affordable rates if they expect him to continue producing like he has this year. The outfield mix in Seattle has some fluidity to it, with Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier both set to reach free agency this winter. That leaves their 2023 group consisting of Julio Rodriguez and Jesse Winker, alongside utility player Dylan Moore and guys with question marks like Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Taylor Trammell. In the short term, that group will head into the Wild Card round and hope to survive long enough to give Haggerty a chance to return.

Outrights: Shaw, Barnes, Ogando, Liberato

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A few players on postseason teams have cleared outright waivers after recently being designated for assignment.

  • The Guardians have outrighted reliever Bryan Shaw to Triple-A Columbus, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. While the veteran has more than enough service time to elect free agency while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary, Tom Withers of the Associated Press tweets that he’ll accept the assignment. Shaw remains in the organization and could technically factor into the playoff mix as a result, but it’s unlikely he’ll do so after Cleveland took him off the 40-man roster. Re-signed to a one-year deal over the winter, the veteran righty soaked up 58 1/3 innings across 60 appearances. He’s long been a durable bullpen workhorse, but his 2022 results were disappointing. Shaw posted a 5.40 ERA with a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate against an elevated 10% walk percentage. Cleveland will owe the 34-year-old a $500K buyout on a 2023 club option, and he’ll head to free agency at the start of the offseason.
  • Yankees reliever Jacob Barnes has gone unclaimed and been outrighted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the team announced. It was a quick turnaround for the righty, who was promoted for his team debut on Saturday. He threw 1 2/3 scoreless innings but was immediately DFA as the club cycled through fresh arms at the back of the bullpen. Barnes had a tough run earlier in the season with the Tigers, allowing a 6.10 ERA across 20 2/3 frames. He’s previously been outrighted and has more than enough service time to refuse the minor league assignment, although he could choose to follow Shaw’s path and stick in the organization as a depth option. He’ll hit free agency at the end of the year regardless if not added back to the 40-man roster.
  • Rays righty Cristofer Ogando was outrighted to Triple-A Durham over the weekend, per his MLB.com transactions log. The 28-year-old reliever has garnered a pair of brief looks with Tampa Bay, his first taste of MLB action. Ogando has made three big league appearances, working 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball. He’s spent the vast majority of the season in Durham, serving as a multi-inning bullpen arm and compiling a 4.56 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk percentage over 53 1/3 frames. Tampa Bay has outrighted Ogando off its 40-man roster twice this season, giving him the right to refuse this assignment in favor of free agency.
  • Padres outfielder Luis Liberato also went unclaimed on waivers last week, according to the transactions tracker. He’s been assigned to Triple-A El Paso. Signed to a minor league deal last offseason after ten seasons in the Mariners system, the left-handed hitter spent most of his year in El Paso. He had an impressive .261/.354/.541 showing over 99 games there, briefly earning his first major league call last month. Liberato only tallied five hitless at-bats with the Friars before losing his 40-man roster spot, however. He’s never previously been outrighted and doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse the assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization for the time being. That’s largely immaterial, as he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season unless added back to the 40-man roster in the intervening time. Liberato’s quality work with the Chihuahuas should land him a number of minor league offers this winter.

Reds Designate Robert Dugger For Assignment

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The Reds announced they’ve designated right-hander Robert Dugger, who had been on the 15-day injured list, for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to catcher Aramis Garcia, who was activated from the 60-day injured list. To clear a spot on the active roster, Cincinnati placed outfielder TJ Friedl on the 10-day IL due to a right hamstring strain.

Dugger has bounced on and off the roster a few times this season. He began the year in the Rays organization on a minor league deal. Promoted for a May spot start, he was designated for assignment thereafter and claimed off waivers by the Reds. The Reds shuttled him between Cincinnati and Triple-A Louisville for the next few months depending on their need for a depth arm capable of throwing multiple innings. Dugger is out of minor league option years, meaning Cincinnati had to DFA him each time they wanted to take him off the big league roster.

In each instance, the 27-year-old went unclaimed on waivers. He’s made three big league appearances with Cincinnati, allowing eight runs in 10 2/3 cumulative frames. Dugger has started seven of 14 outings with the Bats, pitching to a 4.65 ERA with an 18.1% strikeout percentage and a lofty 12.1% walk rate. That includes four rehab outings, as he’s worked his way back from a seemingly minor bout of shoulder soreness.

The Reds will place Dugger on waivers again in the coming days. Assuming he goes unclaimed, he’d have the right to refuse an outright assignment and test free agency. While he’s accepted each previous assignment to Louisville, he’s headed for minor league free agency at the end of the year if not on a 40-man roster. He’ll presumably find some non-roster invitations to Spring Training on the open market.

Garcia signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati last offseason. He earned the backup job behind Tyler Stephenson out of camp and was selected onto the big league roster. He’s only gotten into 46 games, though, with a sprained left middle finger costing him virtually all of the season’s second half. He’ll be active for the final two games but could find himself on the roster bubble this winter. Garcia has hit just .217/.252/.264 across 113 plate appearances during his first year in Cincinnati. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time during the offseason but is a clear non-tender candidate.

Yankees Place Ron Marinaccio On Injured List

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The Yankees announced the placement of reliever Ron Marinaccio on the 15-day injured list this afternoon, retroactive to October 3. He’s dealing with a stress reaction in his right shin. Bullpen mate Albert Abreu is back from the 15-day IL to take the vacated spot on the active roster.

The IL placement rules Marinaccio out for the American League Division Series. Manager Aaron Boone expressed optimism he could return for the AL Championship Series, should the Yankees advance (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem like an especially long-term concern, but the issue is serious enough the Yanks will have to play their ALDS without a reliever who’d have otherwise been very likely to make the playoff roster.

A former 19th-round pick, Marinaccio has overcome a lack of fanfare as a prospect to emerge as a solid bullpen option. He was added to the 40-man roster last offseason and made his big league debut this April, kicking off a successful rookie campaign. The Delaware product has appeared in 40 games and tallied 44 innings, posting a 2.05 ERA. He’s induced swinging strikes on a very strong 13.9% of his offerings and has punched out opponents at a robust 30.9% clip. A 13.3% walk rate certainly isn’t ideal, but Marinaccio has shown the ability to miss plenty of bats and limit damaging contact against left-handed and right-handed hitters alike.

Abreu steps into the vacated roster spot for the final couple days of the regular season. He’s been out since mid-August due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. The out-of-options righty has bounced between a trio of teams this year. Sent from the Yankees to the Rangers before Opening Day in the deal that landed José Trevino in the Bronx, Abreu struggled mightily in Texas. The Rangers traded him to the Royals. He didn’t stick in Kansas City either, and the Yankees eventually brought him back off waivers.

The 27-year-old has pitched pretty well for the Yankees, posting a 3.24 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate over 25 innings. He’s only walked 5.7% of batters faced in pinstripes after struggling mightily with free passes in both Arlington and Kansas City. The Yankees have nevertheless mostly deployed Abreu in low-leverage situations, so he seems more of a borderline candidate to land a playoff roster spot.

Rays Select Jimmy Yacabonis, Designate Kevin Herget

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The Rays announced they’ve selected righty Jimmy Yacabonis onto the big league roster. Fellow righty Kevin Herget has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Tampa Bay has operated a revolving door with its last bullpen spot in the past few days. In rapid succession, the Rays have selected and designated each of Cristofer Ogando, Easton McGee and now Herget, whose most recent call-up came just yesterday. Yacabonis will now step into the bullpen as the Rays juggle low-leverage innings headed into the postseason.

The Rays nabbed Yacabonis off waivers from the Marlins in early August. He spent two weeks in the big leagues with Tampa Bay, appearing four times out of the bullpen. The 30-year-old allowed five runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 innings, striking out four while issuing a pair of walks. He was designated for assignment and cleared waivers before accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham.

Yacabonis has appeared in parts of five big league campaigns, suiting up with the Orioles, Mariners and Marlins in addition to his time in Tampa Bay. He owns a 5.92 ERA in 117 MLB innings, coming out of the bullpen for 57 of his 70 outings. He’s pitched to a 3.21 ERA in 33 2/3 Triple-A frames this year, and he’ll offer skipper Kevin Cash a potential multi-inning option for the last two games of the regular season. Yacabonis is technically postseason-eligible, although it’s unlikely the Rays will carry him on any of their playoff rosters.

Herget loses his roster spot after soaking up 4 1/3 innings in relief of Tyler Glasnow during yesterday’s loss to the Red Sox. The righty threw 77 pitches and certainly wouldn’t have been an option to appear in either of the next two games. With the Rays not planning on carrying him on the playoff roster, it’s not a surprise they promptly designated him for assignment. It nevertheless has to be a tough pill to swallow for the 31-year-old rookie, who has been DFA on three occasions dating back to mid-August.

In each of the past two instances, Herget went unclaimed on waivers and was sent back to Durham. He’ll land on the wire again in the next few days. Herget had a very impressive Triple-A campaign, working to a 2.95 ERA with a solid 24.4% strikeout percentage and a minuscule 3.9% walk rate over 97 2/3 frames. Even if he goes unclaimed on waivers and hits free agency — either via immediate rejection of an outright assignment or at the end of the year — that should draw him a fair number of minor league offers this winter.

Cardinals Sign Giovanny Gallegos To Extension

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OCTOBER 4: It’s an $11MM guarantee, the Associated Press reports. Gallegos receives a $500K signing bonus, followed by successive salaries of $4.5MM and $5.5MM for his final seasons of arbitration eligibility. There’s a $500K buyout on the 2025 option, which has a base value of $6.5MM. The option price can escalate by as much as $3.5MM depending on his games finished tally during the 2024 campaign. It’d increase $500K apiece at 20, 26 and 31 games finished and would add an extra $1MM at each of 36 and 41 games.

OCTOBER 3: The Cardinals announced that they have signed right-hander Giovanny Gallegos to a two-year extension with a club option for 2025. Gallegos had two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, with this deal buying out those years and potentially one free agent year as well.

Gallegos, 31, came over to St. Louis alongside Chasen Shreve in the July 2018 trade that sent Luke Voit to the Yankees. He got a very brief stint with the Cards in the months after that trade, throwing 1 1/3 innings over two appearances. But in the four seasons since then, he has established himself as a mainstay of the club’s relief corps.

From 2019 to 2021, he made 155 appearances and threw 169 1/3 innings. In that time, he registered a 2.76 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 32.4% and 6.2%, respectively. He earned his way into high leverage situations in that time, notching 19 saves and 44 holds in that period.

He reached arbitration for the first time after last season, with he and the club agreeing to a $2.41MM salary for 2022. Since signing that deal, he’s been putting up very similar results to what he had done in the previous three campaigns. He has a 2.91 ERA in 58 2/3 innings with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, earning another 14 saves and another 12 holds.

Based on his fourth straight season of strong performance, Gallegos would have been due an arbitration raise for 2023 and likely another for 2024, as long as he stayed healthy. Of course, with a pitcher, the health factor could always change the calculus in a hurry. Instead, Gallegos will have the security of knowing his earnings for the next two seasons are locked in. For giving Gallegos that guarantee, the Cards will have the ability to secure his services for an extra season.

“So excited,” Gallegos tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I feel so happy. I don’t have the word exactly for how I’m feeling. Right now, I’ve got an extension with the team. My confidence is 100%, 200%.” Goold also spoke to John Mozeliak, the club’s president of baseball operations. “He really wanted to stay and be a part of the St. Louis Cardinals moving forward,” Mozeliak says. “I think it really was a win-win for both parties. This gives him a little peace of mind as well.”

Johnny Cueto Open To Return To White Sox

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The White Sox are wrapping up a season that’ll finish right around .500, a disappointing follow-up to last year’s 93-win campaign. Among the culprits for their middle-of-the-road showing was a rotation that ranks 15th in ERA (3.82) and 14th in strikeout/walk rate differential (14.6 percentage points).

While a league average rotation probably isn’t what general manager Rick Hahn and his front office had in mind, there were a few bright spots. Dylan Cease doubled down on last year’s breakout and could be a finalist for the AL Cy Young award. Michael Kopech tailed off in the second half but flashed the ability to be a productive big league starter in his move from the bullpen. The most surprising positive performance from a White Sox starter is probably that of Johnny Cueto, though.

The 15-season MLB veteran wrapped up a six-year contract with the Giants at the end of last season. He wasn’t coming off a bad year, pitching to a 4.08 ERA over 22 outings. Nevertheless, he did so with a mediocre 20% strikeout rate, and the league clearly had skepticism about his ability to repeat those decent results. Cueto went unsigned until just before Opening Day, when he inked a minor league deal with the ChiSox. The contract came with a $4.2MM base salary for any time spent in the majors, an atypically large figure for a non-roster pact. That suggested Cueto was a high-priority minor league signee and may well have had some MLB offers with a lower base value. Nevertheless, it also indicated no team offered him both $4+MM and an Opening Day rotation spot, and he had to work his way onto Chicago’s roster after building into game shape in Triple-A.

Cueto took four starts in the minors before the White Sox selected his contract in mid-May. He’s been a fixture in the starting five from that point forward, and he’s gotten his strongest results since his 2016 campaign in San Francisco. Over 25 outings (24 of them starts), the two-time All-Star tallied 158 1/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball. He averaged 6 1/3 frames per appearance and allowed three or fewer earned runs in 21 games. By and large, Cueto kept the White Sox in the game when he took the ball, more than making good on his contract. He also set himself up for a better trip to the open market this time around, as he’ll head back to free agency a month from now.

After his final start of the season yesterday, Cueto told reporters he’d welcome a return to Chicago (via James Fegan of the Athletic). The 36-year-old indicated he believes he can still pitch for another two or three seasons, foreclosing whatever small possibility there may have been he’d retire at year’s end.

How replicable Cueto’s 2022 production can be is an open question. Concern about his lack of swing-and-miss remains, as he punched out just 15.7% of opposing hitters. That’s the lowest rate of his career and more than six points south of the league average. His 42% ground-ball rate is right around the league mark. He did a solid job at limiting hard contact but wasn’t elite in that regard.

Where Cueto did excel is in avoiding free passes. He walked only 5.1% of batters faced, his lowest mark since 2016. He’s long had above-average control, but he was among the sport’s best strike-throwers in 2022. The veteran righty also avoided the injured list for the first time in six years, and he told Fegan and others yesterday he was pitching pain-free for the first time in years (presumably since before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2018).

Cueto certainly has locked in a big league contract during his upcoming trip to free agency. His 2022 season isn’t too dissimilar from Zack Greinke’s 2021 platform, which agent Bryce Dixon could point to as an optimistic comp. During his final year with the Astros, Greinke pitched to a 4.16 ERA with a 17.2% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 44.4% grounder percentage. Greinke tallied a few more innings since he was on the big league roster from start to finish, but Cueto soaked up a bigger workload on a per-start basis.

Greinke went on to secure a one-year, $13MM pact from the Royals heading into his age-38 season. A likely future Hall of Famer and a former Cy Young winner, Greinke has had a more accomplished career than Cueto, and he’d been far more consistently durable before his platform year. It seems unlikely Cueto will quite reach a $13MM base salary for those reasons, but their respective seasons before free agency are alike.

Wade Miley, another veteran control artist coming off an excellent year from a run prevention perspective, pitched to a 3.37 ERA with an 18.1% strikeout rate through 163 innings with the Reds last season. The Cubs claimed him off waivers at the end of the year and exercised a $10MM option on his services for 2022. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, as Miley didn’t have the benefit of an open market bidding the way Cueto will this winter. Yet it affirms that a team valued Miley, who was entering his age-35 campaign, as at least a $10MM player, setting that as the seeming floor for what his market value would have been had he gotten to free agency.

Precisely where Cueto’s 2023 salary lands will obviously be determined in the coming months, but there’s no question he proved a valuable contributor for the White Sox. It stands to reason Chicago will at least maintain contact with his reps this winter, as they’re facing a fair bit of uncertainty in the starting staff. Cease will be back at the front of the rotation, and Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn will get chances to bounce back from disappointing 2022 campaigns.

Kopech figures to be in the season-opening starting five, but he’s never topped 140 2/3 innings in any professional season and will be coming off surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee (albeit with an expectation he’ll be full-go for Spring Training). Davis Martin seems the in-house favorite for the #5 spot after eight decent starts to begin his MLB career, but he’s never been a top prospect and was quite homer-prone in the minors. Pushing Martin down a peg or two on the rotation depth chart with an outside addition seems likely, particularly since Chicago’s thin farm system doesn’t offer much in the way of obvious upper minors rotation pieces.

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