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Blue Jays Release Breyvic Valera

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The Blue Jays announced yesterday that infielder Breyvic Valera has been released.  Valera will be joining another league overseas (hat tip to Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae).

The Jays acquired Valera in a waiver claim off the Yankees’ roster in September 2019, only for the Padres to claim him away in February 2020 before Toronto re-claimed him in July of that year.  Valera spent the 2020 season on the restricted list due to travel difficulties in leaving his native Venezuela during the midst of the pandemic, but he made it back this past year and appeared in 39 games.

Valera (who turns 30 in January) hit .253/.313/.356 over 97 plate appearances in 2021, which marked his fourth season of MLB action.  Over 235 PA with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Cardinals, the well-traveled infielder has a career slash line of .236/.302/.322, though he has hit considerably better in the minors, batting .303/.377/.443 over 1730 PA at Triple-A.

Known more for his versatility than his bat, Valera has played mostly at second base and third base as a big leaguer, but has played everywhere but catcher and pitcher during his minor league career.  It is quite possible Valera could turn up again in North American baseball, though he’ll find more opportunity and regular playing time in a foreign league than he would battling several other free agents for minor league deals heading into the 2022 Major League season.

Rangers Sign Jon Gray

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The Rangers continue their offseason spending spree, announcing agreement Wednesday on a four-year contract with right-hander Jon Gray. It’s reportedly a $56MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. Gray will make $15MM apiece over the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM salaries in 2024-25 on the front-loaded deal.

After signing Marcus Semien to a huge seven-year, $175MM deal and then adding Kole Calhoun to the outfield on another free agent deal, Texas has now addressed its pitching staff with another veteran addition.  The Rangers emerged as a suitor for Gray a few days ago, and they beat out the division rival Angels, as well as the Tigers and Mets as teams known to have interest in signing the 30-year-old.

Jon Gray verticalThe four-year, $56MM pact exactly matches MLBTR’s projection for Gray, who ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  The Rangers’ offer was also north of the three-year extension offer the Rockies reportedly made Gray prior to the end of the season, which was said to be somewhere around $35-$40MM in value.  While Gray only got a bit more extra in average annual value, he’ll also gain an extra year of security, and also now get to pitch in a more hurler-friendly venue than Coors Field.

The third overall pick of the 2013 draft, Gray has spent his entire MLB career with Coors Field as his home ballpark, and for the most part has acquitted himself a lot better than most at the notoriously hitter-friendly stadium.  Gray has a career 4.54 ERA in home games, with that number inflated by some rough outings over the smaller sample size of 45 1/3 innings over the 2015 and 2020 seasons.  While Gray also has a 4.65 ERA over 412 2/3 career innings in road games, several players (both pitchers and hitters) have talked about how playing in Denver’s thin air impacts adjustments throughout an entire season, so it could be that getting out of Coors Field entirely will allow Gray to unlock a new level of performance.

Several rival teams have long speculated that Gray’s stuff would thrive in a more normalized pitching environment, given what he already showed as a Rockie.  Gray has a career 46.7% grounder rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate over his career, all above-average metrics.  The righty’s fastball that has averaged 95.2 mph over his career, and that high-velo heater is augmented by an above-average spin rate on his curveball.

Focusing on Gray’s positives while attributing his negatives only to Coors Field isn’t wise, however, as there are some concerns about whether or not Gray can be a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  He has given up quite a bit of hard contact over his career and his fastball (while quick) is lacking in spin rate.  Injuries have also been a factor — Gray tossed only 39 innings in 2020 due to shoulder inflammation, and he missed time this year with a flexor strain and forearm tightness, though those two IL stints only totaled roughly a month.

The Rangers are making a $56MM bet that Gray’s best is yet to come, and it’s a risk the team can afford to take given how much money Texas is reportedly willing to spend on payroll this winter.  Between Gray, Semien, and Calhoun, the Rangers have added $44.2MM in average annual value to next year’s payroll alone, which might represent less than half of the team’s work if they really are prepared to top last year’s mark by $100MM.

Gray immediately becomes the most experienced arm of a Rangers rotation that features Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Glenn Otto, and A.J. Alexy all in the mix for starting jobs.  Dunning and Hearn seem like the only members of that group who are assured of rotation spots, and while Texas won’t sideline all of its younger arms with veteran, there is certainly still room for another notable addition or two beyond Gray.

Beyond the money, Gray doesn’t cost the Rangers anything further in terms of compensation, as the Rockies didn’t issue Gray a qualifying offer.  While there was some expectation that Gray might have taken the one-year, $18.4MM contract if Colorado had made it, the amount of interest in Gray’s services makes that scenario seem a little unlikely in hindsight.  If Gray had accepted, the Rockies would have still retained a pitcher they had obvious interest in keeping, even if at a higher price point than they would have preferred.  Without the QO involved, however, the Rockies now don’t receive any draft pick compensation for Gray’s departure.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Gray were closing in on an agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that an agreement had been reached. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the four-year, $56MM guarantee. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reported the breakdown of terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brewers Sign Rex Brothers To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have signed veteran left-handed reliever Rex Brothers to a minor league deal, per a team announcement. Brothers will receive an invitation to spring training.

Brothers, who turns 34 this month, signed a minor league deal with the Cubs in February and ended up having an up-and-down season. On June 27, he was sitting on an ERA of 2.63 through 27 1/3 innings. However, it was a steep slide from there, as he struggled down the stretch and finished the season with an ERA of 5.26 over 53 innings. Walks have been an especially troublesome issue for Brothers, as he’s never posted a walk rate lower than 11.4% in a given season and has a career rate of 13.5%. But that also comes with tantalizing strikeout numbers, as evidenced by his 27.6% career strikeout rate. 2021 was even more extreme, with a strikeout rate of 31.8% and walk rate of 14.8%.

The best stretch of his career was with the Rockies from 2011 to 2013, as he threw 175 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.82, strikeout rate of 29.1% and walk rate of 12.4%. Brothers then endured a miserable 2014, as his ERA shot up to 5.59, and then only saw limited big league action over the next six years, logging 37 1/3 total innings from 2015 to 2020.

Like most southpaws, Brothers is more effective against lefties, but his splits aren’t drastic. Over his career, he’s held lefties to a line of .214/.336/.321, with righties slashing .253/.351/.418.

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays have made another big strike in free agency, signing right-hander Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110MM deal.  As per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (Twitter link), Gausman will earn $21MM in each of the next two seasons, $22MM in 2024, and $23MM in 2025 and 2026.  Gausman is represented by Tidal Sports.

The signing represents the end of a rather lengthy courtship, as the Blue Jays’ interest in Gausman dates back to at least the 2019-20 offseason, when the right-hander was coming off a rough season split between the Braves and Reds.  After being non-tendered by Cincinnati, Gausman instead opted to sign with the Giants on a one-year, $9MM deal, and after a very successful 2020 season, he chose to accept the Giants’ $18.9MM qualifying offer to return to San Francisco.  The Jays were one of the teams who floated a multi-year offer Gausman’s way, but he turned down the Jays’ reported three-year offer in the $40MM range to instead try and further bolster his value with another strong year with the Giants.

Kevin GausmanOver two years in San Francisco, Gausman not only bounced back from his tough 2019 numbers, but hit a new plateau of success.  Gausman posted a 3.00 ERA/3.38 SIERA over his 251 2/3 innings as a Giant, with an excellent 30% strikeout rate and a solidly above-average 6.5% walk rate.

While Gausman pitched well over 59 2/3 innings in the shortened 2020 season, he duplicated his performance over a full year in 2021, tossing 192 frames and finishing sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting.  One notable wrinkle between the two years was that Gausman increased the use of his split-finger fastball to a career-high 36.6% in 2021, and Gausman’s splitter became one of the more devastating pitches in any arsenal in baseball.

The 192 innings marked a new career high for Gausman, though he was a solid workhorse while averaging 183 IP per year from 2016-18 with the Orioles and Braves.  It is worth noting that Gausman was much better in the first half (1.73 ERA in 114 2/3 IP) than he was after the All-Star break (4.42 ERA over 77 1/3 IP) last year, yet some regression might have been inevitable given that gaudy 1.73 number.  Gausman was also dealing with hip soreness for much of the year, and it could be that he simply started to wear down as many starters did while getting back to a regular workload following the shorter 2020 season.

The Blue Jays got plenty of looks at Gausman during his Orioles days, but while Gausman was a decent but unspectacular member of Baltimore’s rotation, he will now be expected to replicate his front-of-the-rotation numbers from 2020-21.  Toronto has been focusing on the pitching market for much of the winter, and in landing Gausman, it is possible the club has now its replacement for Robbie Ray, should Ray sign elsewhere in free agency.

MLBTR ranked Gausman fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and his contract falls a bit shy of our six-year, $138MM projection.  However, it appears as though Gausman did leave some money on the table to join the Blue Jays, as SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Mets offered Gausman a larger deal than Toronto’s five years and $110MM.  The Giants were also known to be making a solid push to retain Gausman, while the Angels, Mariners, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest.  Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports that the Sox didn’t offer “anything real” to Gausman during their negotiations.

Gausman (who turns 31 in January) joins Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah as the four locks in the Jays rotation, with former top prospect Nate Pearson favored for the fifth spot, and Ross Stripling and Anthony Kay on hand if Pearson struggles or runs into more injury problems.  Between Gausman’s deal, Berrios’ seven-year/$131MM extension, Ryu signed for two more seasons, and Manoah and Pearson providing lower-cost control as the starters of the future, Toronto has built a solid core of arms that the club hopes can withstand the stiff competition of the AL East.

The Gausman signing could also close the door on the chances of Ray re-signing with the Jays, and Toronto has also lost another starter in Steven Matz, who signed a four-year pact with the Cardinals.  It seems possible that the Blue Jays might yet seek out another lower-cost depth arm to compete with Pearson and company, perhaps looking to strike big on another bounce-back candidate as they did with Ray and Matz last winter.

Since Gausman had already been issued a qualifying offer in his career, he was ineligible to receive another one this time around in free agency, meaning the Blue Jays don’t have to give up any draft picks as compensation for his services.  The Jays have already landed one compensatory pick when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers, and would receive another if Ray signed elsewhere since both Ray and Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offers.  With this extra draft capital on hand, the Blue Jays might be more open to now signing a QO free agent of their own, as they were able to land their sought-after rotation upgrade in Gausman without the cost of any picks.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter) reported that the Jays and Gausman had reached an agreement.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted earlier in the day that the two sides were “gaining momentum towards a deal,” and Morosi’s earlier reports suggested that Gausman would land a five-year deal in the $100MM range, with the Jays as a finalist for the right-hander’s services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Giants Sign Alex Cobb

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The Giants have continued to build their rotation by signing right-hander Alex Cobb.  The Beverly Hills Sports Council client signed a two-year contract worth $20MM in guaranteed money, and Cobb is set to earn $9MM in each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.  San Francisco also holds a $10MM club option on Cobb for 2024, with a $2MM buyout.

Cobb spent the 2021 campaign in Orange County, after the Angels acquired him from the Orioles last winter. It was an eyebrow-raising move at the time, since Cobb had struggled with both injuries and underperformance over his three seasons in Baltimore. The ten-year big league veteran rewarded the organization’s faith, though, tossing 93 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/3.83 SIERA ball across 18 starts.

Along the way, Cobb generated more whiffs than he ever had before. His 11.2% swinging strike rate and 24.9% strikeout percentage were both career-best marks, each checking in a touch above the respective league averages for starting pitchers. Cobb paired that uptick in whiffs with his typically robust ground-ball tendencies (53.3%) and solid control (8.4% walk rate) en route to a nice season.

Cobb’s run prevention numbers were partially propped up by one of the league’s lowest home run rates (0.48 per nine innings). It’s unlikely he’ll continue to be quite that successful keeping the ball in the yard moving forward. But Cobb’s blend of average or better whiffs, control and grounders should allow him to be a solid back-of-the-rotation option even if his homer rate regresses. The bigger concern might lie in his health, as he had separate injured list stints this past season due to blisters and right wrist inflammation. Cobb didn’t seem any worse for wear after returning from his time on the IL, though, with the velocity on all of his offerings remaining intact during his final few outings of the year.

The Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. Only Logan Webb remained under club control from the team’s primary five this past season. They’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and reportedly were nearing agreement to bring Alex Wood back. Kevin Gausman’s departure to the Blue Jays leaves one prominent vacancy, though, and teams often have to rely on seven or eight starters to navigate the injury attrition of a full season.

There’s still room for further additions to the rotation, and there should be plenty of spending capacity with which to do so. Cobb’s two-year, $20MM guarantee narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $16MM forecast entering the winter.

The Giants now have a little more than $113MM in estimated 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. For a franchise that has logged player payrolls in the $200MM range in the past, a fairly modest Cobb signing shouldn’t be especially prohibitive to the club’s future goals.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported that the deal was being finalized, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the club was making a strong run at the right-hander last week.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported the $20MM figure, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic (Twitter link) reported the existence of the option year, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs To Sign Clint Frazier

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Dec. 1: Frazier will have a base salary of $1.5MM, with $1MM of potential incentives available, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

Nov. 30, 3:19 pm: The deal has been agreed upon, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

2:55 pm: The Cubs are nearing agreement with free agent corner outfielder Clint Frazier on a one-year contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (Twitter link). Frazier remains controllable via the arbitration process through 2025 (barring changes to the service time structure in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement), so this could prove to be a multi-year pickup for Chicago turns things around offensively.

Frazier, 27, is a former top five overall pick who was one of the game’s most highly-regarded young players early in his pro career. He appeared among Baseball America’s top 50 prospects entering three separate seasons, and he headlined the Yankees’ return from Cleveland for Andrew Miller at the 2016 trade deadline.

The right-handed hitter made his big league debut the following season, spending parts of the next five campaigns in the Bronx. Frazier flashed some of the offensive upside that made him so highly-regarded, posting slightly above-average hitting numbers in 2019 before seemingly breaking out in 2020. Over 160 plate appearances during that year’s truncated season, Frazier popped eight home runs and walked at a massive 15.6% clip en route to a .267/.394/.511 slash line.

While Frazier seemed to be emerging as an organizational building block, he struggled through a miserable 2021 campaign. Over 218 trips to the plate, he stumbled to a .186/.317/.317 mark with just five longballs. While Frazier continued to draw plenty of free passes, his downturn in power and lofty 29.8% strikeout rate combined to lead to his worst results as a big leaguer. Making matters worse, Frazier didn’t play from July onward as he was plagued by vertigo-like symptoms.  In October, Frazier wrote on Twitter, “My issues have been very personal to me and something I’ve wanted to handle privately but there’s been a lot of inaccurate things reported about my injury that I’ll clear up.”

After the season, the Yankees moved on, designating Frazier for assignment before the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft. He was released not long thereafter. Frazier will now hook on with a Cubs team in transition, affording them the opportunity to take a flier on his upside. He’ll reunite with Chicago general manager Carter Hawkins, who was a prominent member of the Indians’ front office during Frazier’s time in the Cleveland farm system.

Mariners Sign Robbie Ray

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The Mariners announced their agreement with reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, as first reported by Michael Mayer of MetsMerized (Twitter link). It’s a five-year deal worth $115MM and an opt-out after the third season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the contract includes a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons and a trade assignment bonus if he’s moved thereafter. Ray is represented by VC Sports Group.

Robbie Ray

Ray, 30, has long been a premier strikeout arm with command issues, which culminated in a 2020 season that saw him traded from Arizona to Toronto in what amounted to a salary dump. While the lefty didn’t immediately turn things around, the Jays jumped to re-sign him for a year and $8MM right out of the gate in the 2020-21 offseason, clearly believing they could help the lefty find another gear.

Even the Toronto front office’s best-case scenario might not have mirrored the 2021 breakout enjoyed by Ray, who was near-unanimously named AL Cy Young (29 of 30 first-place votes). Ray not only restored his command to prior levels but took it to new heights, walking a career-low 6.7% of his opponents. Ray ramped up the usage of his four-seamer at the expensive of his curveball, largely favoring a two-pitch mix that leaned heavily on his plus slider’s ability to perplex opponents.

The results were obviously outstanding, as Ray compiled an AL-best 2.84 ERA and also paced the American League in innings pitched (193 1/3), total strikeouts (248) and ERA+ (154). Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Ray’s overall 32.1% strikeout rate trailed only Corbin Burnes, Carlos Rodon, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta and Gerrit Cole. His 15.5% swinging-strike rate ranked third among the 129 hurlers who tossed 100-plus frames.

Ray was still prone to the long ball, evidenced by an unsightly 1.54 HR/9 mark, but his ability to keep runners off the basepaths led to nearly 70 percent of those long balls coming with the bases empty. It’s fair to wonder how much concern over that penchant might have impacted his market and kept him from reaching a sixth guaranteed year, but one would also imagine that a move to Seattle and a move out of the generally hitter-friendly AL East will only help to lower that mark.

With Ray departing the Blue Jays, it’s hard to ignore the striking similarity between his contract and the $110MM guaranteed by his former team to another free-agent starter: righty Kevin Gausman. Perhaps the Jays weren’t keen on including an opt-out in the deal, or perhaps they just generally prefer Gausman to Ray when all is said and done. Toronto did pursue Gausman both in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, so he’s clearly been of interest to GM Ross Atkins & Co. for quite some time.

In signing Ray, who rejected a qualifying offer in Toronto, the Mariners will surrender their third-highest selection in the 2022 draft. Toronto, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory pick at the end of the first round by virtue of the fact that Ray signed for more than $50MM in guaranteed money.

With the Mariners, Ray will head up a rotation that also includes lefty Marco Gonzales, righty Chris Flexen and righty Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has long been a steady and durable source of above-average innings, while Flexen proved to be a savvy KBO reclamation project for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and his staff this past offseason. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top-end pitching prospect who struggled in the middle of the 2021 season but bookended those struggles with a strong start and strong finish to the season.

Other options in the Seattle rotation currently include Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn, though the Mariners are deep in tantalizing pitching prospects after a protracted rebuilding effort. Top prospects George Kirby, Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock are all progressing through the system, with Brash and Kirby in particular not far from big league readiness. Lefty Brandon Williamson, too, could emerge as an option before long.

Of course, it’s fair to wonder with all that pitching depth and with a good bit of outfield depth, if the Mariners might not choose to trade for another established rotation piece. Ray figures to be the big-ticket free agent addition on the pitching side — not that they couldn’t simply sign another notable arm — but there’s a bevy of quality arms rumored to be available in trade. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo have all had their names kicked about the rumor circuit already, and the Marlins are reportedly open to dealing from their pitching depth as well. Whether it’s a trade or a free agent, another addition to the starting staff to complement the Mariners’ new ace seems likely at some point.

For the time being, it’s possible Seattle will pivot to acquire the bat Dipoto has already suggested he hopes to sign. Dipoto name-checked both Marcus Semien (now with the Rangers) and Javier Baez earlier this winter in voicing a desire to add some “adaptable” free agents, and the Mariners have also been tied to Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor, among others.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s no reason the Mariners shouldn’t be able to add a high-end bat and another rotation addition piece. Even after adding Ray, the Mariners are still projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of about $88MM (assuming an even distribution of his $23MM annual value). For a Mariners club that has taken payroll north of $150MM in the past, there’s plenty of space to add to pile. Ray currently stands as the largest free-agent addition the Mariners have made under Dipoto, but if he wants to spend more aggressively, the means to do should be present.

After all, the Mariners are staring down a two-decade playoff drought, and now more than ever might be the time for Seattle to push toward ending that dry spell. The Mariners were surprisingly in contention for a Wild Card berth right up until the final weekend of the offseason, and they’ll have even more products of their ballyhooed farm system graduating to the Majors in 2022 — headlined by outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Beyond that, the A’s are on the verge of a tear-down that will see them trade several key players, while the Astros could lose Carlos Correa in free agency. The Rangers are spending aggressively to help put a contender back on the field in the second season of their newly constructed stadium but may be a year or two from truly competing.

In many ways, the time for the Mariners to throttle ahead is now, and the signing of Ray serves as a firm indicator that the front office feels similarly. Armed with an elite farm system and tens of millions of dollars in payroll space, Seattle appears poised for an aggressive winter where Ray is just one of several high-end additions.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Outrights: Scrubb, de Geus, Martin, Anderson

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As a busy evening of contract tendering (and non-tendering) draws to a close, some players find themselves in a new position of being outrighted off their team’s 40-man roster. The following players cleared waivers and remain with one of their organization’s minor league affiliates:

  • Right-handed Astros reliever Andre Scrubb has been outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land. Scrubb posted a shiny 1.90 ERA across 23 innings last season despite a huge 19.6% walk rate. His ERA regressed to 5.03 in a similar sample size of 19 innings, while his home run rate ballooned to nearly double the league average.
  • Arizona infielder Andrew Young and right-handed pitcher Brett de Geus  are ticketed for Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno, respectively. Young demonstrated strong power numbers in limited action but struck out an untenable 43.3% of the time. The 24-year-old de Geus was a Rule 5 pick who was thrown into the fire by both the Rangers and Diamondbacks this season, but will return to the minors for additional seasoning after recently being designated for assignment.
  • Baltimore shortstop Richie Martin is headed to Triple-A Norfolk following a sub-replacement level season as an Oriole. The 26-year-old Martin has shown some offensive prowess at Double-A in the past, but for now he’ll look to establish himself as a plus hitter at Triple-A for the first time.
  • Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Anderson is on his way to Triple-A Buffalo after a busy season that saw him pitch for three big league teams, only to be claimed by Toronto in mid-November. Anderson didn’t have much go right in his 23 innings this year, but has consistently been capable of 3-something ERAs in the minor leagues as a starter or reliever.

Astros Sign Hector Neris

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The Astros have made an addition to their bullpen, announcing a two-year contract with reliever Hector Neris. The deal, which reportedly guarantees $17MM, also contains a 2024 option valued at $8.5MM ($1MM buyout). That’s currently a club option, but Neris can vest that provision into a player option in any of three ways: making at least 50 appearances in both 2022 and 2023, making 60 appearances in 2023 alone, or making a combined 110 appearances over the next two seasons. Neris is represented by Brian Mejia and Ulises Cabrera of Octagon Baseball.

The former Phillies’ closer was reportedly in high demand, despite being the face of a bullpen in Philadelphia that led the league in blown saves. Neris himself notched 12 saves and 11 holds, but also seven blown saves while tossing 74 1/3 innings across 74 games. He had a 3.63 ERA/4.08 FIP while pairing a strong 31.6 percent strikeout rate with a less-than-ideal 10.3 percent walk rate.

To his credit, Neris kept the ball on the ground more frequently than usual, logging a 48.9 percent groundball rate. The Phillies were hardly known for their infield defense, but that’s a positive sign nonetheless as he heads to Houston. In total, Neris was credited with 1.4 rWAR, a solid number for a reliever.

The 32-year-old has spent his entire eight-year career with the Phillies, totaling 405 appearances and a career 3.42 ERA/3.79 FIP. The Dominican right-hander was originally signed by the Phillies back in 2010 as an amateur free agent. Despite moving in and out of the closer role during his time in Philly, Neris was an overall positive contributor going back to 2015.

He’ll now embark on the next chapter of his career in Houston, where he steps in to assume Kendall Graveman’s late inning responsibilities. Graveman, acquired midseason from the Mariners, recently signed a three-year, $24MM deal. The Astros will pay Neris a half million more per season, but with only a two-year commitment, which tracks market-wise, given that Neris is two years older than Graveman.

Neris will team with fellow righties Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Pedro Baez, and Rafael Montero to try and bridge the gap from the starter to closer Ryan Pressly. If nothing else, the Astros can rest assured that Neris can handle the mental burden of pitching for an often-maligned franchise in Houston. Having spent so long in Philly, Neris should be used to hearing his share of criticism on the hill.

Neris leans heavily on a 84 mph split finger, which has long been the bell cow offering of his arsenal. He’s especially reliant on the split versus lefties, against whom he uses the split finger roughly 50 percent of the time. For comparison’s sake, he went to the split just 36.9 percent of the time against right-handers. For same-handed hitters, he leans heavily on a 94.1 mph four-seamer (43.9 percent usage rate) and a 94.8 mph sinker (31.1 percent usage rate).

He has also occasionally toyed with a slider against righties, which he threw just 44 times last year – only thrice to lefties – though the breaker wasn’t particularly effective for Neris. Against lefties, Neris throws the heater 37.3 percent of the time, while dialing back usage on his sinker. On the whole, the split finger has been his most effective pitch, producing a mere .152 expected batting average and .240 expected slugging. He finished 2021 in the 93rd percentile for both whiff rate and chase rate while finishing in the 91st percentile for strikeout rate.

Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported the Astros were signing Neris to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the $17MM guarantee. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported the presence of the 2024 option and its specific provisions.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Sign Rougned Odor To Major League Deal

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The Orioles announced agreement with infielder Rougned Odor on a major league contract for 2022. Odor is a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council. Baltimore’s 40-man roster now sits at 38.

It has now been a few seasons since Odor was a productive regular. After breaking into the majors with the Rangers in his early 20’s, Odor posted a couple solid seasons. That led Texas to strike on an early-career $49.5MM extension in March 2017, but his production took a downturn almost immediately thereafter. The left-handed hitter slumped to a .204/.252/.397 line that season. He improved upon that lowly output in the following years, but Odor has still been a below-average offensive player in each of the past four years.

Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, Odor owns a .216/.291/.418 line. That’s come with worse than average strikeout and walk rates (27.8% and 7.9%, respectively), sapping much of his overall value. The Yankees acquired Odor from Texas this past spring, hoping that a move to the Bronx would reinvigorate his lefty bat.

While Odor did hit 15 homers in 361 plate appearances in pinstripes, he managed just a .202/.286/.379 line altogether. New York designated him for assignment and released him earlier this month to clear roster space for prospects to be added before the Rule 5 draft.

Odor is still just 27 years old (28 in February). He’s young enough that teams can continue to hold out hope he may yet find his stride offensively, but it’s been quite some time since he was a capable everyday player. There’s no financial risk for the O’s in integrating him into the infield mix, though. Under the terms of the Rangers – Yankees swap, Texas remains on the hook for almost all of the $12.3MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal. Baltimore will only be responsible for the league minimum salary.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing agreement with Odor on a big league deal.

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